{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T00:28:18Z","timestamp":1777336098138,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,28]],"date-time":"2022-01-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1643328000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Sub-project (Class A)","award":["XDA20030201"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["XDA20030201"]}]},{"name":"Special Foundation for National Science and Technology Basic Research Program of China","award":["2017FY101302"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017FY101302"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China Sino-Russian Cooperation and Exchange Program","award":["42011530079"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42011530079"]}]},{"name":"Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences","award":["ZDRWZS201812"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZDRWZS201812"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sensors"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Selenga River basin is an important section of the Sino-Mongolian Economic Corridor. It is an important connecting piece of the Eurasian Continental Bridge and an important part of Northeast Asia. Against the background of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and global warming, based on the land cover data in the Selenga River basin from 1992, 2000, 2009, and 2015, this paper describes the dynamic changes in land use in the basin. Through a logistic model, the driving factors of land cover change were revealed, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land cover pattern of 2027. The results showed that (1) from 1992 to 2015, the agricultural population in the Selenga River basin continued to decrease, which led to a reduction in agricultural sown area. The intensification of climate warming and drying had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops. Grassland expansion mostly occurred in areas with relatively abundant rainfall, low temperature, and low human activity. (2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current development trend, the construction land area of the Selenga River basin will be slightly expanded in 2027, the area of arable land and grassland will be slightly reduced, and the areas of forest, water\/wetland, and bare land will remain stable. In the future, human activities in the basin will increase in the process of the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Coupled with global warming, the land\/cover of the basin will be affected by both man-made and natural disturbances, and attention should be paid to the possible risk of vegetation degradation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/s22031041","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,29]],"date-time":"2022-01-29T01:43:27Z","timestamp":1643420607000},"page":"1041","update-policy":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Analysis of Land Use\/Cover Change and Driving Forces in the Selenga River Basin"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9751-0183","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yang","family":"Ren","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zehong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"Department of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jingnan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xinran","family":"Miao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"Department of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Turner, B.L., Skole, D., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L., and Leemans, R. (1995). Land Use and Land Cover Change Science\/Research Plan, IGBP. IGBP Report No.35 and HDP Report No.7."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"553","article-title":"International research trends in land use\/land cover change, a core area of global environmental change research","volume":"51","author":"Li","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"51","article-title":"Current status and problems of land use\/cover change research in China","volume":"21","author":"Yu","year":"2002","journal-title":"Adv. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"2","article-title":"Review and prospect of land resources research","volume":"26","author":"Feng","year":"2004","journal-title":"Resour. Sci."},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"3","article-title":"Detection of Land Use Change and Future Prediction with Markov Chain Model in a Part of Narmada River Basin, Madhya Pradesh","volume":"2","author":"Mondal","year":"2014","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol. Water Manag."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Yang, Y., and Wang, J. (2016). Comprehensive Scientific Survey Data Set of Northern CHINA and Its Adjacent Areas, Science Press."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"90","article-title":"Urban expansion and its driving force analysis in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia in the past 30 years","volume":"34","author":"Kai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Technol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"30","article-title":"Research on Driving Mechanism of Land Cover Change in Transbaikal","volume":"35","author":"Zhu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geomat. Spat. Inf. Technol."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"Atutov, A.A., Pronin, N.M., and Tulokhonov, A.K. (1999). Gidroenergetikia i Sostoyanie Ekosistemy Ozera Baikal (Hydropower and the State of the Ecosystem of Lake Baikal), Izd. SO, RAN."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"30","article-title":"The Republic of Buryatia on Lake Baikal","volume":"4","author":"Zhao","year":"1994","journal-title":"Sib. Stud."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1134\/S0097807817030101","article-title":"Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin","volume":"44","author":"Frolova","year":"2017","journal-title":"Water Resour."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2869","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-012-2757-z","article-title":"Geochemical evaluation of present-day Tuul river sediments, Ulaanbaatar basin","volume":"185","author":"Dalai","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mong. Environ. Monit. Assess."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-018-1462-z","article-title":"Dissolved organic matter distribution and its association with colloidal aluminum and iron in the Selenga River Basin from Ulaanbaatar to Lake Baikal","volume":"25","author":"Kida","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"74","article-title":"Construction of Resource and Environment Science Expedition Data Resources Integration System in Northeast Asia","volume":"14","author":"Wang","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Geo-Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"Zhu, L. (2013). Comparative Study on the Ecological Impact of Transbaikal LUCC and Typical Urban Landscape, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"104","article-title":"The Application of thin plate smoothing splines to continent-wide data assimilation, Data Assimilation Systems, BMRC Research Report NO.27","volume":"27","author":"Hutchinson","year":"1991","journal-title":"Melb. Bur. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"227","article-title":"Spatial interpolation of time series meteorological elements based on ANUSPLIN","volume":"36","author":"Zhihong","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Northwest Sci-Tech Univ. Agric. For."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.26599\/JGSE.2013.9280002","article-title":"Groundwater Use in the Selenge River Basin, Mongolia","volume":"1","author":"Hiller","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Groundw. Sci. Eng."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"745","DOI":"10.1111\/grow.12285","article-title":"Understanding urbanization and its impact on the livelihood levels of urban residents in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia","volume":"50","author":"Cui","year":"2019","journal-title":"Growth Change"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"012019","DOI":"10.1088\/1755-1315\/190\/1\/012019","article-title":"Economic-geographical characteristics of agricultural land use within the Selenga river basin","volume":"190","author":"Ekimovskaya","year":"2018","journal-title":"IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"Sanders, A.J.K., Harris, C.D., and Lattimore, O. (2021). Mongolia. Encyclopedia Britannica, Encyclop\u00e6dia Britannica, Inc."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"012007","DOI":"10.1088\/1755-1315\/320\/1\/012007","article-title":"The features of development of agricultural land use in the Republic of Buryatia and Mongolia (the Selenga River basin)","volume":"320","author":"Yekimovskaya","year":"2019","journal-title":"IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Mun, Y., Ko, I.H., Janchivdorj, L., Gomboev, B., Kang, S.I., and Lee, C.H. (2008). Integrated Water Management Model on the Selenga River Basin\u2014Status Survey and Integration (Phase I), Korea Environment Institute."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2010.03.002","article-title":"The consequences of land-use change and water demands in Central Mongolia","volume":"28","author":"Priess","year":"2011","journal-title":"Land Use Pol."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"593","DOI":"10.1007\/s12665-014-3335-1","article-title":"Evapotranspiration and energy balance dynamics of a semi-arid mountainous steppe and shrubland site in northern Mongolia","volume":"73","author":"Minderlein","year":"2015","journal-title":"Env. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1945","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-017-1201-x","article-title":"Environmental change in the Selenga River\u2014Lake Baikal Basin","volume":"17","author":"Kasimov","year":"2017","journal-title":"Reg. Environ. Change"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1953","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2014.09.074","article-title":"Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin","volume":"519","author":"Bring","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"142","article-title":"Agricultural land use and land degradation in the Selenga river basin","volume":"2","author":"Belozertseva","year":"2016","journal-title":"Adv. Curr. Nat. Sci."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"41","article-title":"Analysis of ecologically sensitive areas in the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor under the background of \u201cOne Belt, One Road\u201d","volume":"14","author":"Jun","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"22","article-title":"The status and role of ecological protection in the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor","volume":"5","author":"Zhao","year":"2018","journal-title":"China Econ. Trade J."},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"141","article-title":"Ecological risk zoning and countermeasures for the construction of transportation and pipelines in the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor","volume":"36","author":"Suocheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Chin. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103225","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2020.103225","article-title":"Machine learning methods for landslide susceptibility studies: A comparative overview of algorithm performance","volume":"207","author":"Merghadia","year":"2020","journal-title":"Earth-Sci. Rev."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"1","article-title":"A hybrid model using data mining and multi-criteria decision-making methods for landslide risk mapping at Golestan Province, Iran","volume":"80","author":"Sardooi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."}],"container-title":["Sensors"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.mdpi.com\/1424-8220\/22\/3\/1041\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T22:10:18Z","timestamp":1760134218000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/www.mdpi.com\/1424-8220\/22\/3\/1041"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,28]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2]]}},"alternative-id":["s22031041"],"URL":"https:\/\/2.zoppoz.workers.dev:443\/https\/doi.org\/10.3390\/s22031041","relation":{},"ISSN":["1424-8220"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1424-8220","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,28]]}}}