President Trump’s trade war is expected to slow economic growth across the globe this year, in large part because his aggressive use of tariffs is likely to weigh heavily on the United States, the world’s largest economy.

美国总统特朗普的贸易战预计将导致今年全球经济增长放缓，这在很大程度上是因为他攻击性地使用关税可能对全球最大经济体——美国带来巨大压力。

The economic projections were released on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s decision to raise tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression.

在特朗普决定将关税提高到自大萧条以来未曾见过的水平之后，国际货币基金组织周二发布了上述经济预测。

The president has imposed a 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports, along with punishing levies of at least 145 percent on Chinese goods that come into the United States. Mr. Trump also imposed what he calls “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s largest trading partners, including the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, although he has paused those until July as his administration works to secure bilateral trade deals.

特朗普对几乎所有美国进口商品加征了10%的关税，并对进入美国的中国商品加征至少145%的惩罚性关税。特朗普还对美国最大的贸易伙伴（包括欧盟、日本、韩国、台湾）加征了他所说的“对等”关税，尽管他已将这些关税的征收推迟到今年7月，因为他的政府正在努力与各方达成双边贸易协议。

Mr. Trump’s approach has created paralyzing uncertainty for U.S. companies that export products abroad or rely on foreign inputs for their goods, dampening output just as economies around the world were stabilizing after years of crippling inflation. China and Canada have already retaliated against Mr. Trump’s tariffs with their own trade barriers, and the European Union has said it is prepared to increase levies if the United States goes ahead with its planned 20 percent tax.

特朗普的关税已给不少美国公司带来了令其瘫痪的不确定性，这些公司或向海外出口产品，或依赖外国进口生产东西，在全球经济经历了多年高通货膨胀率后逐渐趋稳的时候抑制了企业产出。中国和加拿大已对特朗普的关税实施了报复性贸易壁垒。欧盟也表示，如果美国实施其计划加征的20%关税，欧盟也准备提高关税。

The World Economic Outlook report projects that global output will slow to 2.8 percent this year from 3.3 percent in 2024. In January, the fund forecast that growth would hold steady in 2025.

《世界经济展望》报告预测，全球经济产出今年的增长率将从2024年的3.3%降低到2.8%。国际货币基金组织曾在今年1月预测2025年的经济增长率会与上年的持平。

The I.M.F. also expects output to be slower next year than it previously predicted.

国际货币基金组织还预测，明年的经济产出增长率将低于它此前的预测。

Much of the downgrade for this year can be attributed to the impact of the tariffs on the U.S. economy, which was already poised to lose momentum this year. The I.M.F. expects U.S. output to slow to 1.8 percent in 2025, down from 2.8 percent last year. That is nearly a full percentage point slower than the 2.7 percent growth that the I.M.F. forecast for the United States in January, when it was the strongest economy in the world.

今年经济预期下调的主要原因是关税对美国经济的影响，美国经济今年的增长势头已经减弱。国际货币基金组织预测美国经济将在2025年增长1.8%，而美国经济去年的增长率是2.8%。新预测比此前的预测降低了几乎一个百分点，国际货币基金组织曾在今年1月预测美国经济今年将增长2.7%，当时美国是全球最强劲的经济体。

“The global economic system that has operated for the past 80 years is being reset,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said in a briefing with reporters this week. “The U.S. effective tariff rate has now surged past levels reached at the turn of the 20th century. Beyond the tariffs themselves, the surge in policy uncertainty — related to trade policy but also more broadly — is a major driver of the economic outlook.”

“运行了80年的全球经济体系正在重置，”国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙本周在记者会上说。“美国实际的关税率现已激增到20世纪初的水平。除了关税本身，政策不确定性的激增——不仅与贸易政策相关，而且范围更广——是影响经济前景的主要驱动因素。”

The I.M.F. forecasts also make clear that the tariffs could complicate the efforts to keep inflation contained. The fund has raised its inflation forecast for the United States to 3 percent from 2 percent this year.

国际货币基金组织的预测也清楚表明，关税可能会使控制通货膨胀的努力变得更加复杂。该组织已提高了对美国今年通货膨胀率的预测，从此前的2%提高到了3%。

Growth forecasts in China and Europe were also lowered, but the I.M.F. suggested that fiscal support by their governments could help cushion the blow of the tariffs.

国际货币基金组织还下调了对中国和欧洲经济增长的预测，但表示这些地区政府的财政支持可能有助于缓解关税带来的冲击。

The I.M.F. noted that its projections were subject to many variables that were hard to predict. The Trump administration has already delayed some of the tariffs that it imposed, and it is racing to negotiate trade deals with dozens of countries in hopes of scaling back the so-called reciprocal tariffs that it enacted on April 2.

国际货币基金组织指出，其预测受制于多重不确定变量。特朗普政府已推迟了部分加征关税的落地时间，并正在加紧与几十个国家进行贸易谈判，希望能减少4月2日宣布的所谓对等关税。

However, the world’s largest economies — the United States and China — appear to be locked in a protracted economic standoff that could weigh on the global economy until a deal is reached.

但是，世界上两个最大经济体——美国和中国——似乎已陷入一场旷日持久的经济战，可能会给全球经济造成影响，至少在双方达成贸易协议之前。

Mr. Trump has signaled that he is prepared to adjust his tariffs when markets become overly volatile, as they did earlier this month. However, he has given no indication that he intends to reverse course.

特朗普虽释放信号称，愿在市场剧烈震荡时调整关税（如本月稍早前情景），但其政策大方向迄今未见转向迹象。

“We must rebuild the Wealth of our Great Country, and create true RECIPROCITY,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media site, Truth Social, over the weekend. “But for those who want the easiest path: Come to America, and build in America!”

“我们必须重建我们伟大国家的财富，创造真正的对等关系，”特朗普上周末在他的社交媒体网站Truth Social上写道。“但对那些想要一条最简单道路的人，我要说：来美国吧，来美国生产！”

The I.M.F. has warned for years that the fragmentation of the global economy and rising trade tensions could be a threat to productivity and global growth. Mr. Gourinchas wrote in the report that the prospect that countries could raise their tariffs to even higher levels poses major risks to growth outlook for the world and for poorer countries in particular.

多年来，国际货币基金组织一直警告：全球经济体系破裂和日益增长的贸易紧张关系会对生产力和全球经济增长构成威胁。古兰沙在报告中写道，各国进一步提高关税的可能性，让全球经济增长前景面临重大威胁，尤其是对较贫穷的国家来说。

“The global economy showed surprising resilience during the severe shocks of the past four years and still bears significant scars,” Mr. Gourinchas said. “It is now being severely tested once again, especially in emerging-market and developing economies with more limited buffers.”

“曾在过去四年受到严重冲击的全球经济，尽管展现出惊人的韧性，但至今仍带有明显的创伤，”古兰沙说。“现在，全球经济再次面临严峻考验，尤其是缓冲能力更有限的新兴市场和发展中经济体。”