President Trump came into office promising to strike “big, beautiful” deals.
特朗普总统上台时承诺要达成“又大又美”的交易。
He quickly opened a dizzying number of negotiations to, naming just a few of his aims, end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, bring peace to the Middle East and usher in dozens of trade deals in record time.
他迅速开启了一系列令人眼花缭乱的谈判,其中包括在24小时内结束乌克兰战争,为中东带来和平,以及在创纪录的时间内达成数十项贸易协议。
“Everybody wants to come and make a deal,” the president said this month.
“每个人都想来达成协议,”总统本月说。
But so far, the goals of many of Mr. Trump’s negotiations have been unrealized, even those that he said would be accomplished in days or weeks. The war in Ukraine is still raging, and the president has floated the idea of abandoning peace talks altogether. Hamas is still holding hostages in Gaza despite Mr. Trump’s warning on social media that the terrorist group must release them all or “you are DEAD!” And while Mr. Trump insists that countries are racing to strike trade deals with the United States, the details are scant.
但是到目前为止,特朗普的许多谈判目标都没有实现,即使是那些他表示将在几天或几周内完成的目标。乌克兰的战争仍在肆虐,总统已经提出完全放弃和平谈判的想法。哈马斯仍在加沙扣押人质,尽管特朗普在社交媒体上警告称,该恐怖组织必须释放所有人质,否则“你们就死定了!”尽管特朗普坚称,各国正在竞相与美国达成贸易协议,但很少见到细节。
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“You undermine your negotiating position when you pick fights with literally everybody — big, small, friend, foe, economy, national security — at the same time,” said Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, an international consulting firm. “On balance, he’s going to have a much harder time because he’s trying to do all this stuff at the same time.”
“当你几乎同时与所有人开战时——无论大国、小国、朋友、敌人、经济、国家安全,你是在损害自己的谈判地位,”国际咨询公司欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默说。“总的来说,他的日子会更难过,因为他要同时处理所有这些事情。”
For years, Mr. Trump has cultivated an image as a master negotiator, using his past as a real estate developer and reality television star to form the core of his political identity. And while making deals on enormously complex issues takes both time and care, Mr. Trump’s inability — so far, at least — to deliver in the ways that he promised has exposed the gulf between his rhetoric and his accomplishments.
多年来,利用自己过去作为房地产开发商和电视真人秀明星的经历,特朗普塑造了一个谈判高手的形象,并以此作为他政治身份的核心。虽然在极其复杂的问题上达成协议既需要时间,也需要精力,但特朗普无法——至少到目前为止——以他承诺的方式兑现承诺,这暴露了他的言论与成就之间的差距。
For Mr. Trump’s aides and allies, their confidence in the president remains undiminished — and whenever his approach is questioned, they are aligned in their response. The president, they remind detractors, wrote the 1987 book “The Art of the Deal.”
对于特朗普的助手和盟友来说,他们对总统的信心并未减弱——每当他的做法受到质疑时,他们的回应都是一致的。他们提醒批评者,总统在1987年写了《交易的艺术》(The Art of The Deal)一书。
“No matter the task, President Trump will always get the best deal for the American people,” Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “In less than 100 days, President Trump has leveled the playing field for our manufacturers, brought us closer to peace in Gaza and Ukraine, flooded the US with historic investment commitments, returned American hostages, and held universities accountable for fostering antisemitism. There is no negotiation too daunting for President Trump and he continues to prove his critics wrong.”
“无论任务是什么,特朗普总统总是会为美国人民争取到最好的协议,”白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在声明中说。“在不到100天的时间里,特朗普总统为我们的制造商创造了公平的竞争环境,使我们更接近加沙和乌克兰的和平,向美国提供了历史性的投资承诺,让美国人质回家,并就反犹太主义滋生问题向大学问责。对于特朗普总统来说,没有什么谈判是望而生畏的,他继续证明他的批评者是错误的。
‘We’re Just Going to Take a Pass’
“我们就撒手不管了”
Mr. Trump’s negotiating style has always been more blunt-force than give-and-take, using threats to get his way. He will often demand allies and adversaries alike propose a deal, then he will decide if he likes it.
特朗普的谈判风格一向是更依赖强横,而不是互相让步,他用威胁来达到自己的目的。他经常要求盟友和对手都提出一个方案,然后再决定自己是否喜欢。
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After using economic coercion in the form of sweeping tariffs, Mr. Trump on Tuesday called on China to come ahead with a deal. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll set the deal, because we’re, we’re the ones that set the deal,” he said.
在以全面征收关税的形式进行经济胁迫之后,特朗普周二呼吁中国尽快达成协议。“如果他们不能达成协议,我们就来制定协议,因为我们,我们才是制定协议的人,”他说。
Mr. Trump also has threatened to withhold billions of dollars in federal funds from universities if they do not comply with his demands, and he has issued executive orders against law firms that do not bend to his will.
特朗普还威胁说,如果大学不满足他的要求,他将扣留数十亿美元的联邦资金。他还对不服从他意愿的律师事务所发布了行政命令。
But he has shown little patience for the nuts and bolts, dipping in and out of negotiations and largely leaving aides to work out the details, according to current and former advisers.
但据现任和前任顾问说,他对具体细节缺乏耐心,对谈判只是有一搭没一搭地参与,基本上让助手们来解决细节问题。
Above all, the president is eager to announce success.
最重要的是,总统急于宣布成功。
Using the backdrop of the White House, he has promoted private and foreign companies’ investments in the United States. He has bragged about the law firms that have signed arrangements to provide free legal services toward causes he supports. And he has celebrated efforts to secure the release of Americans imprisoned abroad.
他以白宫为背景促进了私人和外国公司在美国的投资。他夸耀那些签署协议,为他支持的事项提供免费法律服务的律师事务所。他还赞扬了为促成被关押在国外的美国人获释所做的努力。
But his eagerness to declare a win also means that the terms of the deals have been left unclear. The president, for example, appears to have a much more expansive view of what free services the law firms that signed agreements with him might provide. It is also unclear if they signed written deals with specific terms or less formal agreements.
但是他急于宣布胜利也意味着交易的条款并未明确。例如,总统似乎对与他签署协议的律师事务所可能提供的免费服务有更宽泛的理解。目前还不清楚他们签署的是带有具体条款的书面协议,还是不那么正式的协议。
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In other cases, it means Mr. Trump will move on quickly. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States would abandon its efforts to end the war in Ukraine in the coming days if there was not significant progress toward a peace deal. Mr. Trump later agreed with Mr. Rubio’s assessment.
在其他事例中,这意味着特朗普会迅速转移注意力。上周,国务卿鲁比奥表示,如果在和平协议方面没有取得重大进展,美国将在未来几天放弃结束乌克兰战争的努力。特朗普后来同意了鲁比奥的评估。
“If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people, and we’re just going to take a pass,” he told reporters on Friday in the Oval Office. While campaigning, Mr. Trump repeatedly promised to end the war in Ukraine within a day. Last month, he said he was “being a little bit sarcastic” about that timeline.
“如果由于某种原因,双方中的一方让谈判变得非常困难,我们就会说你们很愚蠢,你们是傻瓜,你们是可怕的人,我们就撒手不管了,”周五,他在椭圆形办公室对记者说。在竞选期间,特朗普多次承诺在一天内结束乌克兰战争。上个月他表示,关于这个时间表,他当时的话“有点讽刺的意思”。
On Tuesday, Mr. Rubio decided to skip the next stage of the Ukrainian cease-fire talks.
周二,鲁比奥决定不参与下一阶段的乌克兰停火谈判。
The war in Ukraine is far from the only area where Mr. Trump is still in search of a deal. In January, the United States helped broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that led to the release of some hostages and the hope that the war could come to an end. But Israel has since resumed its bombardment campaign in Gaza and the talks are deadlocked.
乌克兰战争远不是特朗普仍在寻求达成协议的唯一领域。今年1月,美国帮助促成了以色列和哈马斯之间的停火,释放了一些人质,让人们看到了战争结束的希望。但以色列此后恢复了对加沙地带的轰炸,谈判陷入僵局。
Iranian officials have said that they will continue talks with the Trump administration about a new nuclear deal, though the country’s foreign minister said that Washington’s shifting messages on its objective — whether it’s to limit Iran’s nuclear program or fully dismantle it — were “not helpful.” Mr. Trump’s effort to strike a deal with Iran comes after his withdrawal, in 2018, from a deal signed during the Obama administration.
伊朗官员表示,他们将继续与特朗普政府就一项新的核协议进行谈判,尽管该国外交部长表示,华盛顿在其目标上游移不定——有时是限制伊朗的核计划,有时是完全解除核计划——“对事态有害无益”。而且特朗普现在是在努力与伊朗达成协议,但在2018年,他曾退出奥巴马政府时期与伊朗签署的协议。
Domestically, Columbia University struck a deal with Mr. Trump to avoid losing $400 million in federal funding, while Harvard University rejected the administration’s demands and has vowed to fight back. Four law firms that Mr. Trump has targeted with executive orders have fought them in court, and federal judges have ruled in their favor so far, temporarily halting Mr. Trump’s actions.
在国内,哥伦比亚大学与特朗普达成了一项协议,以避免失去4亿美元的联邦资金,而哈佛大学拒绝了政府的要求,并誓言反击。特朗普的行政命令针对的四家律师事务所在法庭上展开了抗争,联邦法官迄今做出了对他们有利的裁决,暂时停止了特朗普的行动。
纽约市的一次集会。特朗普对大学的施压使哥伦比亚大学达成协议,但哈佛大学誓言要反击。
纽约市的一次集会。特朗普对大学的施压使哥伦比亚大学达成协议,但哈佛大学誓言要反击。 Marco Postigo Storel for The New York Times
But even critics of Mr. Trump’s approach say they expect he will eventually succeed in at least securing at least some new trade deals. The president’s aides have been working to iron out new arrangements after he paused his so-called reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.
但就连特朗普的行事方式的批评者也表示,他们预计,他最终至少会成功达成一些新的贸易协议。在他暂停所谓的对等关税90天之后,总统的助手们一直在努力制定新的安排。
And with potential deals on the horizon, Mr. Trump seems interested in at least dropping by some of the trade talks. Last week, he made an unexpected appearance at a meeting with a Japanese delegation and spoke with the president of Mexico, later teasing progress toward new agreements. While hosting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy at the White House, Mr. Trump didn’t hesitate to make another big promise.
鉴于潜在的交易即将达成,特朗普似乎有兴趣至少参加一些贸易谈判。上周,他出人意料地出现在与日本代表团的会议上,并与墨西哥总统进行了交谈,后来还暗示新协议进行得如何顺利。在白宫接待意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼时,特朗普毫不犹豫地做出了另一个重大承诺。
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“There’ll be a trade deal,” he said, “100 percent.”
“一定会达成一项贸易协议,”他说,“百分之百的事。”