Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwan’s leaders joined the United States and its allies in declaring solidarity with the victim. Taiwan and Ukraine were fellow democracies, they said, each imperiled by its hulking, authoritarian neighbor.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后不久，台湾的领导人加入到美国及其盟友的行列，宣布支持受害方。他们表示，台湾和乌克兰一样都是民主政体，都受到庞大的威权主义邻国的威胁。

Now, President Trump’s turn against Ukraine could fan debate in Taiwan about whether it can count on American support in the event of a widening conflict with China, which claims the self-governed island as its territory.

现在，特朗普总统与乌克兰翻脸，这可能会在台湾引发有关辩论：如果与中国发生更大范围的冲突，它是否能指望美国的支持。中国声称对自治的台湾拥有主权。

“Taiwan spent the better part of the past three years making the case for how the fate of democracies is intimately tied and what happens to Ukraine affects Taiwan,” said Russell Hsiao, the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, which is based in Washington.

“台湾在过去三年的大部分时间里一直在论证民主政体的命运如何紧密相关，发生在乌克兰的事情会如何影响台湾，”总部位于华盛顿的全球台湾研究中心执行长萧良其说。

“With the seemingly abrupt change in the U.S. position on the Ukraine war,” Mr. Hsiao said, “this could have the effect of causing some in Taiwan to question whether the United States could pull the rug from underneath them.”

“由于美国对俄乌战争的立场似乎突然改变，”萧良其说，“这可能带来影响，导致一些台湾人怀疑美国是否会突然停止支持他们。”

For decades, Taiwan has faced the possibility of invasion by China, which now sends fighter jets and warships nearly every day to probe its defenses. Taiwan’s ability to deter a potential attack hinges on whether the United States stands ready to help and even send forces. The island’s leaders have made closer ties with Washington a pillar of its foreign and defense policy for nearly a decade.

几十年来，台湾一直面临着中国入侵的威胁，中国现在几乎每天都派战斗机和军舰去试探台湾的防御。台湾阻止潜在攻击的能力取决于美国是否准备为其提供帮助，甚至派兵干预。近十年来，台湾领导人一直把与华盛顿建立更紧密的关系作为其外交和国防政策的支柱。

But as Mr. Trump executes a dramatic reversal of U.S. policy toward Ukraine, abandoning Western efforts to punish Russia for the invasion and insisting that Ukraine is to blame for the war, the United States’ partners, including Taiwan, are being forced to assess their own positions and weigh how to secure Mr. Trump’s support.

但随着特朗普在美国的乌克兰政策上采取了令人吃惊的逆转，放弃了西方惩罚俄罗斯入侵的努力，并且坚持认为乌克兰对战争负有责任，包括台湾在内的美国伙伴们正在被迫评估自己的立场，认真考虑如何确保特朗普支持的问题。

In Taiwan, Mr. Trump’s stinging comments about Ukraine could feed a current of public opinion arguing that the island has been repeatedly abandoned by Washington and cannot trust its promises.

在台湾，特朗普关于乌克兰的尖刻言论可能会助长一股民意浪潮，认为台湾已多次被美国抛弃，不能再相信美国的承诺。

“The prospect of the United States trying to make a deal with Russia over Ukraine, without actually giving Ukraine a seat at the table, will reinforce the sense of American skepticism in Taiwan,” said Marcin Jerzewski, the head of the Taiwan office of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which tries to foster cooperation between European and Asian democracies.

“美国试图与俄罗斯就俄乌战争达成协议，但没有在谈判桌上真正留给乌克兰一席之地，这种做法将强化台湾对美国的怀疑，”欧洲价值安全政策中心在台办事处主任马钦·杰泽夫斯基说，该机构致力于促进欧洲和亚洲民主国家之间的合作。

Some anxiety has surfaced on social media, with a few Taiwanese commentators suggesting that if war between China and Taiwan should erupt, Mr. Trump might take a similarly transactional approach. (Taiwanese officials have said that the Chinese government covertly amplifies skeptical online talk about Washington in Taiwan.)

一些焦虑情绪已在社交媒体上出现，几名台湾评论人士提出，假如战争在中国与台湾之间爆发，特朗普也许会采取同样的交易做法。（台湾官员表示，中国政府已在暗中放大网上关于台湾对华盛顿有怀疑的言论。）

On Sunday, dozens of Ukrainians and Taiwanese gathered outside the de facto Russian embassy in Taipei. “Russia is the aggressor,” one organizer said — a message tacitly, yet pointedly, aimed at Mr. Trump.

周日，数十名乌克兰人和台湾人在台北事实上的俄罗斯大使馆外聚集。“俄罗斯是侵略者，”一名组织者说，这是一条未言明却又针对特朗普的信息。

“If today he could abandon Ukraine — and I don’t know if he’s really going to abandon Ukraine — then could he also abandon Taiwan?” said Huang Yu-hsiang, a 23-year old technician who was at the protest. “If they don’t care about values, that means they could abandon Taiwan, a consistent supporter of democracy.”

“如果今天他能放弃乌克兰——我不知道他是否真在放弃乌克兰——他也会放弃台湾吗？”现年23岁的技术人员黄宇翔（音）问道，他参加了周日的抗议活动。“如果他们不在乎价值观，那就意味着他们能放弃一贯支持民主的台湾。”

Mr. Trump does not appear to have a strong commitment to Taiwanese democracy. That has contributed to concerns that he might put Taiwan’s interests at risk if he negotiates a big trade deal with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has told Mr. Trump and previous American presidents that Taiwan is a key concern in their relationship.

特朗普似乎没有对民主的台湾做出坚定的承诺。这是人们担心如果他与中国领导人习近平达成一项重大贸易协议的话，可能会让台湾的利益面临威胁的原因。习近平已告诉特朗普和前几任美国总统，台湾是中美关系的核心关切。

For now, Taiwanese officials have been sounding a positive note about relations with Washington, taking care to avoid an open rift with Mr. Trump. At a security forum in Taipei last week, President Lai Ching-te cast Taiwan as a key player in democracies’ struggle against authoritarian powers like as Russia, China and Iran. But Taiwan’s statements of support for Ukraine have been measured lately, avoiding specifics about Mr. Trump’s decisions.

就目前而言，台湾官员们一直在用积极的语调谈论与美国的关系，小心避免与特朗普产生公开的裂痕。在上周台北举行的安全论坛上，台湾总统赖清德把台湾描述为民主国家与俄罗斯、中国、伊朗等威权主义国家斗争的关键参与者。但台湾最近发表的支持乌克兰的声明措辞谨慎，避免提有关特朗普决定的细节。

What does Taiwan think of the possibility that the United States might cut off support for Ukraine or force it to accept peace terms that favor Russia? Joseph Wu, the secretary general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and a former foreign minister, sidestepped the question at the same security forum.

台湾如何看待美国可能切断对乌克兰的支持或迫使乌克兰接受有利于俄罗斯的和平条款？台湾国家安全委员会秘书长、前外交部长吴钊燮在上述安全论坛上回避了这个问题。

“Serving in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for six — for more than six — years, I know there are things I can say, and there are things I cannot say,” Mr. Wu said. He emphasized that Taiwan understood that it needed to strengthen its military. “Our own fate is controlled in our hands,” he said.

“我在外交部工作了六年——其实是六年多，我知道有些话可以说，有些话不能说，”吴钊燮说。他强调了台湾明白需要加强军事力量。“我们自身的命运掌握在我们手中，”他说。

When President Vladimir V. Putin sent Russian forces rumbling into Ukraine in a full invasion three years ago, Taiwanese leaders had already been worried that Mr. Xi might feel emboldened to try something similar on their soil. He had overseen a harsh security crackdown in Hong Kong and a rapid buildup of China’s military.

俄罗斯总统普京三年前派俄罗斯军队全面入侵乌克兰后，台湾领导人那时就曾担心过习近平可能会受到鼓舞，对台湾尝试类似的做法。习近平主导了在香港实施严厉的国家安全镇压，并迅速扩充中国军队的实力。

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president at the time, and her officials drew rhetorical parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine as they sought to raise public support for their policies, including more military preparations and the strengthening of ties with other democracies.

时任台湾总统的蔡英文和她的官员们在寻求争取公众对其政策的支持时，曾在讲话中把台湾与乌克兰进行比较，包括在加强军事准备和加强与其他民主国家的关系方面。

Invaders must not go unpunished, Bi-khim Hsiao, who is now Taiwan’s vice president, told reporters in 2023, when she was its chief representative in Washington. “We must ensure that anyone contemplating the possibility of an invasion understands that,” she said, “and that is why Ukraine’s success in defending against aggression is so important also for Taiwan.”

现任台湾副总统的萧美琴曾担任台湾驻华盛顿的首席代表，她曾在2023年对记者表示，绝不能让侵略者不受惩罚。“我们必须确保任何考虑入侵可能性的人都明白这点，”她说。“这就是为什么乌克兰在抵御侵略上获得成功，对台湾也如此重要的原因。”

It was clear to Taiwan that Mr. Trump’s return to the White House would inject uncertainty into the relationship with the United States, even before his recent statements about Ukraine.

早在特朗普最近发表有关乌克兰的言论前，台湾就很清楚特朗普重返白宫将给台美关系注入不确定性。

As a candidate for the White House and after taking office, Mr. Trump said Taiwan was spending far too little on its military and was too complacent about the United States coming to its rescue in a war. He also accused Taiwan of unfairly gaining dominance in the manufacture of advanced semiconductors for smartphones and other technology.

特朗普在竞选期间和上任后都表示，台湾在军事上投入太少，对美国在发生战争时会援救自己过于自信。他还指责台湾在智能手机和其他技术所需的先进半导体制造业不公平地占据主导地位。

But Taiwanese officials and experts have said that, pressure from Mr. Trump notwithstanding, Taiwan is very different from Ukraine and more economically important to the United States. They argue that the Trump administration sees China as a more pressing challenge for the United States than Russia, and that Taiwan can be a loyal partner in that context.

但台湾官员和专家们表示，尽管有来自特朗普的压力，但台湾与乌克兰有很大的不同，在经济上对美国更重要。他们提出，特朗普政府把中国视为对美国来说比俄罗斯更紧迫的挑战，在这个背景下，台湾是美国的忠诚合作伙伴。

Mr. Lai, Taiwan’s president, has been trying to head off any serious breach with Mr. Trump. This month, he announced that Taiwan would increase military spending to at least 3 percent of its economic output (up from about 2.45 percent this year). He also said the island — which has more semiconductor fabrication plants, or “fabs,” than any other place in the world — would come up with proposals in response to Mr. Trump’s demand that more such plants be built in the United States.

台湾总统赖清德一直在努力避免与特朗普有任何严重的分歧。本月，他宣布台湾将把军费开支提高到经济产出的至少3%（今年的比例约为2.45%）。他还说，台湾会响应特朗普的要求，提出在美国建造更多半导体制造厂的方案，台湾拥有的半导体制造厂比世界上任何其他地方都多。

“From additional arms purchases and energy imports to semiconductor fabs in the United States, the Lai administration will have to come up with an optimal mix that can catch the attention of President Trump and make haste,” said Mr. Hsiao, the researcher in Washington. “Time is really of the essence for Taipei.”

“从增加武器采购和能源进口，到在美国设立半导体制造厂，赖清德政府将不得不拿出一个能引起特朗普总统注意的最佳方案，而且要快速拿出，”在华盛顿做研究工作的萧良其说。“时间对台北来说真的至关重要。”