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Autumn Statement

The document summarizes forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that show economic growth will be worse than previously expected, unemployment will remain higher, and government debt and borrowing will be more than projected. Specifically, it notes that growth is now forecast to be -0.1% compared to the 2010 forecast of 2.8%, unemployment will be 340,000 higher than projected, debt will exceed the target of 70% of GDP, and borrowing will be £100 billion more than expected. It concludes that outcomes may end up even worse given OBR's past forecasting record.

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The Independent
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303 views1 page

Autumn Statement

The document summarizes forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that show economic growth will be worse than previously expected, unemployment will remain higher, and government debt and borrowing will be more than projected. Specifically, it notes that growth is now forecast to be -0.1% compared to the 2010 forecast of 2.8%, unemployment will be 340,000 higher than projected, debt will exceed the target of 70% of GDP, and borrowing will be £100 billion more than expected. It concludes that outcomes may end up even worse given OBR's past forecasting record.

Uploaded by

The Independent
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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GROWTH WILL BE WORSE THAN EXPECTED


Economic growth % OF GDP March 2011 forecast 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2002 December 2012 forecast

SO UNEMPLOYMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN WAS HOPED


Unemployment CLAIMANT COUNT, MILLIONS March 2011 forecast 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 December 2012 forecast

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

OSBORNE WILL MISS HIS DEBT TARGET


Public sector net debt % OF GDP March 2011 forecast 80 78 76 December 2012 forecast

GOVERNMENT MUST BORROW MORE


Public sector net borrowing* BN March 2011 forecast 120 90 60 December 2012 forecast

100bn
more borrowing than expected in March this year
2016-17

74 72 70 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 30 0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
*Excluding Royal Mail, Asset Purchase Facility, B&B, NRAM

OBRs 2010 growth estimate for 2012

2.8% -0.1%
Estimated growth for 2012 now

...AND, GIVEN THE OBRS RECORD, IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE


Vanishing growth % OF GDP 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 What the OBR forecast in ... Jun 2010 Nov 2010 Mar 2011 Nov 2011 Mar 2012 Dec 2012

340,000
extra dole claimants predicted for 2016

0.5 0 -0.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

SOURCE: OBR

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