Top 10 Global Investor Questions For 2014: Transportation Infrastructure Sector
Primary Credit Analyst: Aurelie Hariton-Fardad, London (44) 20-7176-3677; [Link]-fardad@[Link] Secondary Contacts: Stuart M Clements, London (44) 20-7176-7012; [Link]@[Link] Olli Rouhiainen, London (44) 20-7176-3769; [Link]@[Link] Juliana C Gallo, London (44) 20-7176-3612; [Link]@[Link] Varvara Nikanorava, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-135; [Link]@[Link] Thomas Jacquot, Sydney (61) 2-9255-9872; [Link]@[Link] Veronica Yanez, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4485; [Link]@[Link]
Table Of Contents
What is the credit outlook for transportation infrastructure companies for 2014? What is the perspective for transportation infrastructure companies in emerging markets? Would a material slowdown in China or return to recession in the eurozone in 2014 hurt transportation infrastructure companies? What other macroeconomic and policy developments could have the most significant impact on transportation infrastructure in 2014? What are the prospects for capital investment in the sector, and how will it be financed? To what extent will transport infrastructure companies be able to capitalize on greater long-term investment in vital infrastructure over the next few years?
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Table Of Contents (cont.)
Could the tight schedule for infrastructure investment in Brazil for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics affect ratings on participating companies? What is the pace and nature of mergers and acquisitions in transportation infrastructure? How do you view the policy risk in China's toll road sector? Do you expect Japan's revitalization strategy to boost the country's transportation infrastructure sector? Related Criteria And Research
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Prospects for the transportation infrastructure sector globally in 2014 are now largely stable, in our view, given that we expect the European economy to slowly improve this year and growth in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions to stay relatively stable. We nevertheless believe country-specific deviations from these regional trends could affect the credit quality of individual issuers because domestic economic and political climates strongly influence the sector. Some countries are more exposed to volatile commodity volumes and prices than others, and government priorities differ regarding infrastructure investment and privatization. Below, we provide insight into the impact we think these diverging trends will have on the sector in 2014.
What is the credit outlook for transportation infrastructure companies for 2014?
We consider it largely stable. The outlook distribution among the 81 transportation infrastructure companies we currently rate globally under our corporate methodology reflects this: 60 have stable outlooks, 19 have negative outlooks, while two have positive outlooks. About one-half of these companies are located in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), while the remainder are split about 60:40 between Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Only one company is in North America, although we assess some transportation infrastructure entities in this region, as in the others, under our public finance or project finance criteria. The economies of the countries and regions in which they operate greatly influence the operational and financial performance of transportation infrastructure companies. Our base-case rating assumptions incorporate our macroeconomic forecasts for these countries and regions. Overall, we expect a moderate pick-up in GDP growth in 2014--although this will vary widely across regions and countries, as follows: Although we forecast that the eurozone (European Economic And Monetary Union) will come out of recession in 2014, we expect a recovery to be weak and fragile. We forecast real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, compared with a 0.6% contraction in 2013. Among eurozone countries our forecasts vary, from just 0.2% GDP growth in the Netherlands to 1.8% in Germany. We forecast somewhat stronger growth for Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) than for Western Europe. We nevertheless consider that the economic recovery in a large number of countries in this region has remained shallow. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.5% in Ukraine, 2.2% in Russia, and 3.6% in Turkey. For Latin America, we anticipate that economic growth will increase to 2.9% real GDP growth in 2014 from 2.4% in 2013. In the Asia-Pacific region, we anticipate that growth will remain relatively stable, although trends will also vary between countries. We forecast real GDP growth will be about 5.4% for the region in 2014, compared to 5.3% in 2013. This incorporates a 7.4% GDP growth forecast for China (compared with about 9% on average between 2000 and 2011), 2.6% for Australia, and 1.4% for Japan. (For further details, see "Credit Conditions: Europe Sees A Slight Improvement, But Structural Weaknesses Persist," published Dec. 9, 2013, "Credit Conditions: Growth In Latin America Expected To Pick Up in 2014 Amid Continuing Financial Market Volatility," published Dec. 13, 2013, and "Credit Conditions: Asia-Pacific Growth Is Mostly Stable, But
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Some Lagging Credit Risks Remain For 2014," published Dec. 10, 2013.) We expect performance in the transportation sector will continue to evolve in line with regional and domestic growth. Moderate economic growth in 2014 together with tariff increases in line with, or slightly above inflation should support moderate earnings' increases among transportation infrastructure companies and a relatively stable financial performance. Under our base-case scenarios for rated transportation infrastructure companies, we anticipate: Revenue growth of about 5.4% on average on the previous year. EBITDA margins of about 46.0%, on average, representing a 1.3% improvement on the previous year. We nevertheless anticipate that performance will vary between subsectors of the industry (see table 1). S&P's 2014 Base-Case Forecasts For Rated Transportation Infrastructure Companies' Revenues And EBITDA Margins
Average year-on-year change in revenue (%) Toll roads Airports Rail Ports Average EBITDA margin (%) Toll roads Airports Rail Ports 63.1 50.1 25.9 48.7 4.9 3.5 5.6 7.4
What is the perspective for transportation infrastructure companies in emerging markets?
We think the sector will stay largely stable, similar to the global picture. We currently rate 37 transportation infrastructure companies in emerging markets, of which 29 have stable outlooks, and eight have negative outlooks. We nevertheless remain cautious concerning prospects for the EEMEA region. Companies operating in the rail and port sectors have high exposure to commodities, and in our view improvement in economic conditions could be partially offset by volatility in commodities markets. We also expect domestic demand and industrial production to remain subdued in 2014, notably in Russia and Ukraine. This will likely constrain any rebound in earnings (see "Growth In Russia Is Faltering On Domestic As Well As Global Weaknesses," published Sept. 25, 2013). We also see a risk that the tariffs of certain rail companies could be frozen during the year, notably in Russia and Ukraine. Access to international capital markets remains a key success factor for transportation infrastructure companies that operate in emerging markets. We believe that emerging markets in Europe, which have relatively weak external liquidity positions, could face liquidity shortages (see "Emerging Market Sovereigns In Europe Could Be Most At Risk In A Liquidity Squeeze," published on July 4, 2013.) Such liquidity squeezes could, in our view, affect the ratings on transportation infrastructure companies operating in the region. Limited access to international capital markets could
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prompt companies to postpone vital investments into infrastructure and fleet upgrades. If this is not remedied, this could over time additionally pressurize their market position and profitability. This contributed to our downgrade, on Nov. 8, 2013, of Ukraine's national rail operator (see "Ukrainian Railways Downgraded To 'B-' Following Downgrade Of Ukraine; Outlook Negative"). In our view, the national rail company was highly exposed to country and transfer and convertibility (T&C) risk in Ukraine. Furthermore, liquidity risk had increased as a result of weakening sovereign credit quality, which could constrain Ukrainian issuers' access to the financial markets. Added to this, the company is exposed to the weak domestic banking system, where it holds its cash and committed lines. While we consider prospects for transportation infrastructure companies operating in Latin America to be generally stable, we think the outlook for Argentinian companies is negative. This is because the sovereign rating and T&C assessment constrains our ratings on corporations operating in the country (see "11 Argentine Corporates, Utilities, And Infrastructure Entities Downgraded Following Similar Action On Sovereign," published Sept. 13, 2013). Further downward rating pressure could occur in 2014, in our view.
Would a material slowdown in China or return to recession in the eurozone in 2014 hurt transportation infrastructure companies?
While we forecast that the eurozone will remain out of recession in 2014, we assign a 25%-30% probability of retrenchment in the final part of 2014, extending into 2015. In this scenario, we forecast that GDP growth in the region could slow to 0.6% in 2014 and only 0.1% in 2015. In addition, although we consider the prospects of a hard landing in China's growth increasingly unlikely in the near term, we see a 15%-20% probability of real GDP growth slowing to 6.9% in 2014, and a greater drop, although less probable, could still occur. Such adverse changes in economic conditions would likely affect demand for transportation infrastructure companies. We would expect such a scenario to trigger a decline in volumes of goods transported by companies in the sector, in the number of passengers using airports, toll roads, and trains, and in their retail spend when travelling. Tariffs for the transport of goods could also reduce in light of a decline in demand. A slowdown in the economy could therefore lead to reduced earnings for transportation infrastructure companies, and weaken the credit quality of the sector. In our view, rail companies and ports that carry material volumes of freight, and airports that have material transfer traffic flows would be most at risk. European airports would likely be more affected if the change in economic conditions was driven by a slowdown in China because Chinese tourists have been above-average spenders at European airports. However, the growth in their expenditure has already started to decelerate following the introduction of new anti-corruption laws in China.
What other macroeconomic and policy developments could have the most significant impact on transportation infrastructure in 2014?
In our view, two other macroeconomic developments are most likely to affect the sector in 2014: first, the gradual tapering of quantitative easing; second, a change in the sovereign environment, especially for companies that are government-related entities (GREs).
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About 40% of transportation infrastructure companies we rate are GREs. We typically factor uplift from our assessments of their stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) into our ratings to reflect the likelihood of extraordinary financial support from the government in case of need. Transportation infrastructure GREs are mainly located in the EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions. Nine of these issuers currently have a negative outlook, reflecting the possibility that under our GRE criteria we could lower the ratings if we were to downgrade the relevant sovereign. More generally, the tapering of some of the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies could affect market conditions for rated transportation infrastructure corporates. On Dec. 18, 2013, the Fed announced that, starting in January, it will reduce bond purchases from $85 billion a month to $75 billion a month. The Fed also said that it would likely reduce the program in measured steps at future meetings. While the decision sent equity indices surging, bond spreads were not affected. The effect that tapering will have on the financial markets could be higher than market participants currently anticipate. This could create downward rating pressure, in particular for companies that have significant maturities in the near term. We believe that funding will remain available for transportation infrastructure companies in developed markets. However, this could translate into higher funding costs, which could negatively affect the financial profile of these companies. For companies operating in emerging markets, we consider liquidity risk to be greater. In our view, as quantitative easing tapers, there is greater risk that the flow of funds to these markets may shrink, or in some cases reverse. Domestic markets in some countries could, however, mitigate this, by assuming an increasingly larger proportion of infrastructure funding. This could affect companies operating in these countries, be it through the unavailability of foreign currency they need to repay debt, the lack of new funding, or increased funding costs. We see emerging markets in Europe, as well as Argentina, as being most at risk in this respect.
What are the prospects for capital investment in the sector, and how will it be financed?
We expect capital investment in the transportation infrastructure sector to remain high in 2014. We forecast that during the year rated transportation infrastructure companies will invest in total about 15.2% of their forecast revenues for the year. This would represent about a 9.4% increase in total spend in 2013. We anticipate that investment will vary somewhat across regions. The need for investment in transportation infrastructure remains high in emerging markets. We see governments' involvement in these markets as key to maintaining the sector's credit quality. Governments have been partially funding infrastructure investment in their domestic markets either directly through capital subsidies or indirectly through state-sponsored funding and tax incentives. In Latin America, we believe already approved plans and the required investment programs under concession contracts will drive capital expenditures (capex). We expect a mix of internal cash generation and bank debt will finance this. Meanwhile, we believe debt capital markets and national development banks will also participate in financing some of the new investments and projects in the region. The Brazilian national development bank--Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES)--has played a significant role in the delivery of new
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transportation infrastructure investment in Brazil, and in our view will continue to do so in 2014. In EMEA, we anticipate investments across rated airports will increase materially and that investments across other sub-sectors will continue to be high. The increase in capex at European airports will be mainly to increase capacity and reduce connection times. We expect most of it to be funded from internally generated cash flows, with additional contributions from debt issuance. We also expect that capex among Western European rail companies will remain high, owing to governments' investment plans and the capital-intensive nature of the sector. Significant new projects are under way, for instance, in Germany, Italy, and France. Most rated rail companies rely on ongoing support from the government through capital subsidies for a portion of their investments. Given the political and social importance of public transport in Europe, we do not anticipate significant changes in the likelihood of extraordinary government support to most of rail GREs we rate. We anticipate that these companies will continue accessing debt markets to complete capital requirements. We expect capital investment for the Asia-Pacific transportation infrastructure sector will remain broadly in line with historical trends, characterized primarily by a strategy of gradual investment supported by underlying growth. This generally enables companies to temper spending if operating conditions deteriorate. Funding is mainly through debt issuance, a trend we expect to continue. We expect a few certain large projects with long lead times to start during 2014, but these are generally supported by favorable regulatory regimes that allow an economic return even before the projects are completed.
To what extent will transport infrastructure companies be able to capitalize on greater long-term investment in vital infrastructure over the next few years?
Rising long-term investment in infrastructure has led, in many cases, to increased investment plans among rated companies. Rated rail companies in EMEA, for instance, are delivering significant investments, including modernization of their networks and high-speed rail services. Likewise, several rated toll road network operators are widening or upgrading parts of their networks. Although this can reduce free operating cash flows and increase leverage in the near to medium term, the companies generally secure some form of cost recovery, including an economic return on investment, often in the form of higher tariffs. New investments could therefore improve their credit quality over the longer term. Over the near to medium term, however, such investments could damage credit quality, depending on the way they are funded and the pace at which companies recover costs. Some companies are unlikely to see any significant benefit from greater long-term investment. For instance, the current investment plans for rated airports in EMEA do not incorporate any significant investments in new runway capacity, although they incorporate investment in terminal capacity. Finally, for some companies, new investment could increase competition between different transportation companies over the medium term. For instance, new high-speed rail links are being built in France and will likely, once they open, increase competition on roads that cover the same routes. We expect the impact of such changes on rated French toll
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road network operators to remain limited, however, given their large scale and the diversity of their networks. Many governments provide incentives for transportation infrastructure companies to invest. This can take the form of capital subsidies, which are often made available for rail companies. It can also be through the availability of funding from multilateral agencies, such as BNDES in Brazil, or in Europe the European Investment Bank and EUROFIMA European Company for the Financing of Railroad Rolling Stock.
Could the tight schedule for infrastructure investment in Brazil for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics affect ratings on participating companies?
We believe that investment in transportation infrastructure that is essential for the games to take place will be delivered on time. This includes notably airport projects in Guarulhos and Brasilia. Some of the less essential projects, for which there is greater flexibility, could be delayed given the challenging deadlines. We therefore don't expect that our ratings on transportation companies that are participating in the infrastructure investment will be negatively affected. Several European transportation infrastructure companies are participating projects that won bids in the Brazilian transportation infrastructure sector, including Spain-based toll road operator Abertis Infraestructuras S.A. and Flughafen Zurich AG AG. This has so far not affected our ratings on these companies. This is mainly because European companies have invested as minority shareholders and equity investments have been limited in light of their cash resources. We anticipate that in 2014 European companies will continue to consider new investment in the region with a view to preserving their credit quality.
What is the pace and nature of mergers and acquisitions in transportation infrastructure?
M&A activity has been significant over the past five years, and new acquisitions were often largely debt funded. We expect this activity to lessen over the next 12 months as companies look to stabilize their financial performance. That said, we believe that European companies will continue to seek to diversify into emerging markets, in particular in Latin America. We expect, however, that this will only have a limited impact on rated companies in the sector. We believe rated transportation infrastructure companies would likely partner with other investors, often acting as minority investors, and that this will likely reduce the impact of any new acquisitions on their credit profile. Although we expect privatization of transportation infrastructure assets to continue, we believe it will have only a limited impact on rated transportation infrastructure companies. This is because we believe that privatizations are more likely to attract long-term investors, such as infrastructure or pension funds, rather than trade buyers. What's more, as is the case for M&A activity in general, we expect that trade buyers would be part of consortia, with only limited stakes. We do not expect that companies will significantly increase their leverage through capital returns, unless on the back of recent strong performance. We expect that those transactions would remove any potential upward pressure on
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ratings rather than lead to downward movements.
How do you view the policy risk in China's toll road sector?
Chinese toll road operators have faced heightened policy uncertainty since over the past two years, when the government responded to the perceived high toll rates in China and started to clear out the irregularities in this sector. The green passage policy for waiving toll fees of fresh farm products and the toll-free policy for passenger cars during four national holidays have adversely affected the operators. In our view, policy uncertainty could continue in China until there is a transparent regulatory framework on toll rates and concessions. The government has to balance the lowering of transportation costs, the interests of toll road operators, and the attractiveness of highway construction projects for private capital. China plans to invest about renminbi (RMB) 2.5 trillion (about $0.4 trillion) on new national highways during 2013-2030. Materially adverse policies are therefore less likely, in our opinion. We expect the credit quality of major toll road operators to be largely stable. Although the holiday toll-free policy since October 2012 has led to revenues reducing by 5%-8% on average, operators are still likely to expand their revenue modestly in 2013-2014. A pick-up in traffic amid an economic recovery in the second half of 2013, and a continued rise in car ownership will support earnings. We view the investment appetite of major toll road operators as less aggressive than before because of higher construction costs and lower returns on new roads.
Do you expect Japan's revitalization strategy to boost the country's transportation infrastructure sector?
As part of the Japan Revitalization Strategy, the government has announced its intention to develop infrastructure (such as airports and ports) to stimulate economic growth. The strategy will likely focus on greater involvement of private sector companies in the ownership and operations of existing assets. While the actual structure of the ownership and operating model is uncertain at this stage, this strategy is consistent with trends we are seeing in other countries globally and regionally. In our view, the degree of predictability and stability of the regulatory and operating framework that will be implemented will greatly influence the continued stability of the transportation sector during this transition. We believe that certain key drivers for this sector (such as passenger growth for airports or trade volumes for ports) are generally very steady, given the typically significant barriers to entry that temper competition. As such, predictability of revenue, which would be supported by the contractual, regulatory, and legal framework, will be critical to the overall credit quality of the sector. However, too much regulation and fierce competition between airport and land transportation are key hurdles to encouraging private investors. We estimate that most of the domestic airport operations have relatively low profitability compared to airport operators in other regions. Consequently, we believe that the central and local government's push for flexible regulation will be key to the successful implementation of the strategy.
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Related Criteria And Research
Credit Conditions: Growth In Latin America Expected To Pick Up In 2014 Amid Continuing Financial Market Volatility, Dec. 13, 2013 Credit Conditions: Asia-Pacific Growth Is Mostly Stable, But Some Lagging Credit Risks Remain For 2014, Dec. 10, 2013 Credit Conditions: Europe Sees A Slight Improvement, But Structural Weaknesses Persist, Dec. 9, 2013 Key Credit Factors For The Transportation Infrastructure Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 Ukrainian Railways Downgraded To 'B-' Following Downgrade of Ukraine; Outlook Negative, Nov. 8, 2013 A Slow Economic Recovery Means Global Toll Road Operators' Credit Quality Remains Largely Stable, Oct. 30, 2013 Growth In Russia Is Faltering On Domestic As Well As Global Weaknesses, Sept. 25, 2013 11 Argentine Corporates, Utilities, And Infrastructure Entities Downgraded Following Similar Action On Sovereign, Sept. 13, 2013 Industry Report Card: Recession, Country Risk, And M&A Continue To Test Resilience Of European TRNOs, May 15, 2013 Industry Report Card: Latin American Infrastructure Credit Quality Remains Healthy, May 14, 2013 Industry Report Card: European Airports Remain Resilient In The Face Of Recession, May 7, 2013 Industry Report Card: EMEA Rail, Bus, And Port Issuers Enjoy A Largely Stable Outlook, But Some Face Sovereign Stress, Feb. 19, 2013
Additional Contact: Infrastructure Finance Ratings Europe; InfrastructureEurope@[Link]
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