The Rundown 12/02/13
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American Enterprise InstituteThe Rundown 12/02/13
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Good morning and welcome to The Rundown. Iran nuclear deal? Turkey. Next Korea nuclear program? Turkey. Pivot to Asia? Turkey. I guess you know what's on our minds. . . . Foreign policy, as always. Best, Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team
Tweet of the Week
Ahmad Majidyar @majidyar Afghan government says US has suspended fuel/supplies to ANSF to pressure Kabul to sign BSA. Unhelpful and risky tactic. Win for Taliban.
In the News
Iran
Seeking to ease concerns among its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf about its potential resurgence, Iran said on Sunday that it would pursue stronger cooperation with Saudi Arabia. ICYMI: Maseh Zarif writes for the New York Daily News, This agreement sidesteps other elements of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The IAEA has documented Iran's extensive work on the design and development of a nuclear weapon. This includes indications that Iran has continued pursuing activities relevant to nuclear weapons development in recent years. In addition, there are data demonstrating that the Iranian scientific community, elements of which have ties to the military establishment, is advancing research efforts that would contribute to the eventual manufacture of nuclear weapons. Watch J. Matthew McInnis's appearance on Al Jazeera America's "Consider This" for more on the nuclear deal, and read his AEIdeas blog titled Success in Geneva, but darker clouds on the horizon for Iran? Look out for a new piece from Danielle Pletka laying out the geopolitics of the new Middle East and the US-
Iranian axis.
Dancing with the Devil
Whether wielding nuclear or chemical weapons, sponsoring truck bombs, or taking hostages, rogue regimes and terrorist groups continue to threaten the United States and its allies. How should America manage its relationship with the world's most troublesome powers? Highlighting research from his new book, Dancing with the Devil (Encounter Books, February 2014), Michael Rubin will describe not only lessons Americans have learned from decades of engaging Iran, North Korea, the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Taliban, but also what rogue regimes and terrorists have concluded about dialogue with Americans. Livestream the event this evening at 5:30 p.m.
Defense
With sequestration likely to remain law throughout this year and beyond, the US Air Force finds itself in a "ready today" versus a "modern tomorrow" dilemma. How will the Air Force balance capability, capacity, and readiness in the coming years? In the concluding session of its series with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, AEI's Jon Kyl will host General Mark Welsh III, Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, for a discussion of these questions and more. RSVP here for the December 11 event. Dont forget to also RSVP for an off-site discussion with US Air Force Chief of Staff General T. Michael Moseley (ret.) on December 5. The 18th Air Force Chief of Staff will discuss air powers critical role in empowering and sustaining American global leadership. As congressional budget leaders Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) have engaged in ongoing talks, optimism has grown for short-term relief from the defense budget cuts known as the sequester. Recently, leaders from both parties have floated the possibility of a one- or two-year sequestration alternative. Mackenzie Eaglen examines the proposals on the table, concluding: the hopeful prospect for any deal to mitigate the short-term sequestration pain should not cloud the need for a smarter and more lasting solution. Unfortunately, right now the alternatives would only extend and prolong the pain for the Department of Defense rather than undoing it.
Asia
In a display of its growing ambitions, China successfully launched a rocket carrying its first moon rover earlier this morning. Gary Schmitt takes a closer look at Beijings decision to create an air-defense identification zone over Japans Senkaku Islands. And to leave no uncertainty about Beijings seriousness in asserting control, within hours of the announcement the Chinese air force carried out its first patrol in the zone with reconnaissance planes, early-warning aircraft, and jet fighters. Schmitt writes, If Susan Rice truly wants a new model of great-power relations with China, the first step the Obama administration should take is to make sure Beijings use of the old model of great-power bullying isnt in any way tolerated or rewarded.
Want to read more on this topic? Check out Michael Auslin's piece for Politico and Michael Mazza on CNN Global Public Square. Since the institution of the one-child policy in 1980, China's Communist Party has demanded mastery over that final and most intimate of all private spheres, the family. Forced sterilizations, involuntary abortions, female infanticide, and untold other family tragedies have been ruthlessly routine aspects of the national plan to drive down childbearing to meet the state's birth targets. Despite recent news reports trumpeting an official easing of the policy, the changes were inconsequential. And China's demographic future remains dire, not just because of the policys ill effects. In The Wall Street Journal, Nicholas Eberstadt argues that even a minor tweak in Beijing's population controls will not prevent a demographic crash. Read about Chinas coming one-child crisis here. This week marks the fifth anniversary of Pakistani jihadist group Lashkar-e-Taiba's attack on Mumbai. While the basic facts are well known, haunting questions remain: How could 10 men "who knew only about chickens and goats" hold India's financial capital and the world's fourth-largest city to ransom? More importantly, could another Mumbai attack happen today? Read Sadanand Dhume's latest column for The Wall Street Journal on When Bombay came under siege.
Latin America
Economic collapse, incompetent leadership, and Cuban meddling may provoke a showdown among wellarmed chavista rivals, with civilians caught in the crossfire. How should the US tackle the challenge? Roger Noriega argues, The Obama administration must work with regional partners to respond to the brewing crisis. It should invoke the Inter-American Democratic Charter as a step toward restoring democratic governance, and to warn Maduro and military leaders that theyll be held responsible for violence against citizens. If the administration fails to confront these events decisively, Congress should demand action and make clear to the president that leading from behind is not an option.
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