What Is Policy Analysis?

The product o f policy analysis may be advice as simple as a statement linking a proposed action to a likely result: passage o f bill A will result in consequence X. It may also be more comprehensive and quite complex: passage o f bill A, which can be achieved with the greatest certainty through legislative strategy S, will result in agdisproport~ongregate social costs o f C and aggregate social benefits of B, but w ~ t h ate costs for group one and disproportionate benefits for group two. A t whatever extremes of depth and breadth, policy analysis is intended to inform some decision, either implicitly (A will result in X) or explicitly (support A because it will result in X, which is good for you, your constituency, or your country). Obviously, not all advice is policy analysis. So to define it, we need to be more specific. W e begin by requiring that the advice must relate to public decrsions and be informed by social values. That is not to say that policy analysts do not work in private organizations. Businesses and trade associations often seek advice about proposed legislation and regulations that might affect their private interests-when their employees or consultants consider the full range o f social consequences in giving policy analysis. Of course, the majority o f policy anasuch advice, they are provrd~ng lysts are to be found In government and non-profit organizations where day-to-day operations inherently involve public decisions, as well as in consultancies that serve these public and private organizations. Because our interest centers on policy analysis as a professional activity, our definition requires that policy analysts, in either public or private settings, have clients for their advice who can participate in public deciin mind, we hazard the following simple sion-making. With these cons~derations definition: policy analys~sis client-oriented advice relevant to public decisions and in-' formed by soc~al values.

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

A plethora o f definitions o f policy analysis already exists.' W h y introduce this one? One answer is that it helps us keep our focus on the purpose o f this book: developing the practical approaches and conceptual foundations that enable the reader t o become an effective producer and consumer o f policy analysis. W e emphasize development o f a professional mind-set rather than the mastering o f technical skills. If w e keep central the idea o f providing useful advice t o clients, then an awareness o f the importance o f learning the various techniques o f policy analysis and o f gaining an understanding o f political processes will naturally follow. Another answer is that this definition also emphasizes the importance o f social values in policy analysis. Social values can come into play even when advice seems purely predictive. By looking at consequences o f policies beyond those that affect the client, the analyst is implicitly placing a value on the welfare o f others. Good policy analysis takes a comprehensive view o f consequences and social values. As will become clear in subsequent chapters, w e believe that economic efficiency deserves routine consideration as a social value not only because i t measures aggregate welfare fairly well but also because it tends t o receive inadequate weight in political systems. A n appropriate starting place for our study is an overview o f the profession o f policy analysis. H o w does policy analysis differ from the older professions t o which it is related? Where are policy analysts to be found and what do they do? What skills are most essential for success? P O L I C Y ANALYSIS A N D RELATED PROFESSIONS
If you are a student in a public policy analysis program, then you probably already have a good sense o f w h a t policy analysis is all about-you have by your educational choice purposely selected the profession. Yet you may instead aspire t o another profession, such as public administration, business management, city and regional planning, law, or public health, in which you may nevertheless be required to play the role o f policy analyst from time to time. Perhaps you are reading this book as a student in an academic program in political science, economics, or political economy. We hope t o put policy analysis in perspective by comparing it with some o f the related professions and activities with which you may be more familiar.

'Some examples: "Policy analysis is a means o f synthesizing information including research results (the laying out o f alternative choices) and o f determining future t o produce a format for policy decls~ons needs for policy relevant information." Walter W~lliams. Social Policy Research and Analysrs (New York: American Elsevier Publishing Company. 1971). p. xi; and "Policy analysis is an applied social science discipline which uses multiple methods o f inquiry and argument to produce and transform policy-relevant InWilllam N . Dunn, Public formation that may be utilized in political settings to resolve policy
Policy Analysis (Englewood Cliffs. N.J.: Prentice Hall. 1981). p. ix. These definitions, as do most, lack the

Descriptions o f policy analysis client orlentation that distinguishes policy analysis as a professionalactiv~ty. closest t o our definition are given by Arnold J. Meltsner, Policy Analysts in the Bureaucracy (Berkeley: University o f California Press. 1976) and Norman Beckman. "Policy Analysis in Government: Alternatives to 'Muddling Through'." Public Administration Revrew. Vol. 37. no. 3. 1977. pp. 221-22. For an extended discussion o f the policy sciences, a broader conception o f policy analysis, see Carry D. Brewer and Peter deleon, The Foundations of Policy Analysis ( H o m e w d , Ill: Dorsey Press, 1983). pp. 6-17.

Policy Analysis and Related Professions

29

A comparison o f policy analysis with five other paradigms-academic social science research, policy research, classical planning, journalism, and the "old" public administratiow-appears in Table 2. I. W e focus our attention on similarities and differences in characteristics such as major objectives, client orientation, common style, time constraints, and general weaknesses. The comparison o f paradigms emphasizes differences. As our discussion indicates, however, the professions o f planning and public admjnistration have moved much closer to the policy analysis paradigm in recent years. The common experience o f higher education gives us all at least some familiarity with academic research in the social sciences. Its major objective is the development o f theories that contribute to a better understanding o f society. Because the client for the research is "truth," at least as recognized by other scholars, the social science disciplines have attempted to develop rigorous methods for logically specifi-ing theories and empirically testing hypotheses derived from them. Progress in the social sciences proceeds as much from the idiosyncrasy o f researchers as from the demands of the larger society. The new theory or clever empirical test earns respect from social scientists whether or not it is immediately relevant to public policy. Nevertheless, the accumulation o f empirical evidence, and the associated rise and fall o f competing theories eventually influence the "world views" of policy makers outside of the academy.' Although academic research only fortuitously contributes to the debate over any particular policy issue, the development of social science knowledge forms a base for more narrowly specified research of greater potential relevance. This research, which often directly employs the methods o f the social science disciplines, can be described as policy r e s e ~ r c hWhereas .~ academic research looks for relationships among the broad range o f variables describing behavior, policy research focuses on relationships between variables that reflect social problems and other variables that can be manipulated by public policy. The desired product o f policy research is a more-or-less verified hypothesis o f the form: If the government does X, then Y will result. For example, academic research into the causes o f cnme might identifi moral education within the family as an important factor. Because our political system places much o f family life outside the sphere o f legitimate public intervention, however, there may be little that the government can do to foster moral education within the home. The policy researcher, therefore, may take moral education as a given and focus instead on factors partially under government control, such as the certainty, swiftness, and severity o f punishment for those who commit crimes. The policy researcher may then be willing to make a prediction (a hypothesis to be tested

thin disciplines, acceptance o f new theories that better explain empirical anomal~es often occurs only after repeated failures o f the older theories over an extended period. See Thomas S. Kuhn. The Structure oJScientifc Revolutions (Chicago: Univers~ty of Chicago Press. 1970). For a discussion o f a paradigm shift in political context, see Peter A. Hall. "Policy Paradigms. Experts, and the States: The Case o f Macroeconomic Policy-Making in Britain." in Stephen Brooks and Alain-C. Gagnon, eds.. Sociol Scientists. Polrcy, and the State (New York: Praeger, 1990). p p 53-78.
a discussion of policy research, see James S Coleman. Policy Research ;n the Sociol Scrences (New York: General Learning Press. 1972). Policy research, expanded t o include the study o f the policy process, is sometimes referred to as policy science. Harold D. Lasswell. 'The Emerging Conception of the Policy Sciences." Policy Sciences. Vol. I. no. 1. 1970, pp. 3-30.

o or

Table 2.1 Policy Analysis in Perspective

1
Academic Social Science Research Policy Research

Major Objective Construct theories for understanding society Predict impacts of changes in variables that can be altered by pubiic policy "Truth" as defined by the disciplines: other scholars
-

Common style Rigorous methods for constructing and testing theories; usually retrospective Application of formal methodology to policy-relevant questions: prediction of consequences Established rules and professional norms,, specification of goals and objectives Managerial and legal

Time constraints Rarely external time constraints

General Often irrelevant to information needs of decision makers

-

Actors in the policy arena:the related disciplines

Sometimes deadline pressure, perhaps mitigated by issue recurrence

Difficulty in translating findings into government action

Classical Planning

Defining and achiev- "Public interest" as professionally ing desirable future defined state of society

Little immediate time Wishful thinking in pressure because plans when political deals with long-term processes ignored future Time pressure tied to routine decision maklng such as budget cycles Strong deadline pressure-strike while issue is topical Strong deadline pressure-completion of analysis usually tied to specific decision Exclusion of alternatives external to program Lack of analytical depth and balance Myopia resulting from client orientation and time pressure

The "Old" Public Administration

Efficient execution of programs established by political processes Focusing public attention on societal problems Systematic comparison and evaluation of alternatives avaiiable to public actors for solving social problems

'Public interest" as embodied in mandated program

Journalism

1 General pubiic

Descriptive

Policy Analysis

Synthesis of existing Specific person or institution as decision research and theory to predict consemaker quences of alternative policies

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

goals and objectives, Zoning and land-use ordinances were to serve as the mechanisms for implementing the master plans. The impact of urban planning has been limited, however, by the autonomy of local governments that do not fully accept the professionally specified goals and objectives, by the dynamic o f local economic growth that often takes unanticipated forms, and by a narrow emphasis on physical structure rather than broader issues of social behavior. Recognizing the incongruence of the classical planning paradigm with the reality of democratic politics, many planners have urged their profession t o adopt a more active interventionist role in public decision m a k i q 5 Consequently, planning schools now require coursework in policy analysis. many urban and reg~onal A more recent manifestation o f the planning paradigm was systems analysis, which attempted to extend the techniques o f operations research beyond narrow applications The basic approach of systems analysis involves the construction o f quantitative models that specify the links among the multitude of variables o f interest in social or economic systems. The analytical objective is to maximize, or at least achieve lower bounds on, certain variables that represent goals by altering other variables that can be manipulated by government. By identifying the many possible interactions, the systems analyst hopes t o avoid the myopia o f incremental political decision making But systems analysis has tended to be both overambitious and reduction~st.' Rarely is there adequate theory or data for the construction of reliable comprehensive models. Further, not all important factors are readily subject to quantification. In particular, the appropriate weights t o place on the multiple goals that characterize public issues are usually not obvious; the analyst's choice may cloak value judgments In apparent objectivity. Additionaliy, the mystlque o f quantification may give simplistic models more attention than they deserve. Witness, for example, the public attention given t o the report o f the Club o f Rome on the limits to world growth7-a report based on a model with virtually no empirical links to the real world.' A n apparently rigorous model, it purported t o show that continued economic growth would soon be unsupportable, leading to a dramatic decline in world living standards.

'For example, see Jerome L. Kaufman, 'The Planner as Interventionist In Public Policy Issues," in Robert W. Burchell and George Sternlieb, eds.. Plonninq Theory m the 1980s: A Search for Future Directions (New Brunswick. N.J.: The Center for Urban Policy Research. 1978). pp. 179-200. 6For critiques of systems analysis, see Ida R. Woos. Systems Analysis in Public Poliv: A Critique (Berkeley: University o f California Press, 1972); and Aaron Wildavsky, "The Political Economy of Effciency. Cost-Benefit Analysis, Systems Analysis, and Progrm Budgeting." Public Administration Rewew. Vol. 26, no. 4. 1966, pp. 292-310. For a comparison ofsystems analysis and policy analysis, see Yehezkel Dror, Analysts: A N e w ProFessional Roie in Government Service." Public Administration Review, Val. 27, no. 3, 1967, pp. 197-203. 'Donella H. Meadows. Dennis L. Meadows. Jorgen Randers, and Willlam W . Behrens Ill. The LimIts to Growth: A Report fw the Club of Rome's Proiect on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe Books. 1974). 'For critiques o f the Club o f Rome approach, see Wllliam D. Nordhaus. 'World Dynamics: Measurement Without Data," Econorn;~Journol. Vol. 83, no. 332, 1973, pp. 115&1183; Chi-Yuen Wu. "Growth Models and Limits-to-Growth Models as a Base for Public Policymaking in Economic Development." Polrcy Sciences. Vol. 5 , no. 2, 1974, pp. 191-211: and Julian L. Simon and Herman Kahn, eds.. The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 (New York: Basil Blackwell. 1984).

Policy Analysis a n d Related Professions

33

Despite numerous arbitrary and questionable assumptions, the Club o f Rome report was embraced by many whose worldview associated continued economic growth with unavoidable environmental degradation. The formality o f the model tended to divert attention from its implicit assumptions.

A more focused application o f systems analysis is the planning, programming, budgeting system (PPBS), which shares some characteristics with policy analysis. The basic approach of PPBS is to identjfy all programs that have common objectives so that budget allocations to those programs can be compared in terms o f their effectiveness in achieving the objectives. PPBS is like policy analysis in that it is directed at influencing specific decisions in the budget cycle. It differs in its attempt to force comprehensive and quantitative compansons over a wide range of programs. After some apparent success in the Defense Depaitment, President Lyndon John, however, its son ordered its use throughout the federal government in 1965. In 1971 use was formally abandoned by President Richard Nixon's Office of Management and Budget. Even this limited form of planning placed too great a strain on available knowledge and analytical resource^.^ The goal of the 'oid"pu6iic administration was more modest than that of planning: the eficient management of programs mandated by the political process. Its advocates sought to separate the management function from what they saw as the corruption of politics. The words of Woodrow Wilson provide an unequivocal statement o f the basic premise of the old public administration: ". . . administration lies outside the proper sphere of politics. Administrative questions are not political questions. Although politics sets the tasks for administration, it should not be suffered to manipulate its office^."'^ The ideal is a skillful and loyal civil service free from political interference and dedicated to the implementation and eficient administration o f politically mandated programs according to sound principles o f management. In other words, the science of management was insulatedfrom the art o f politics. Both the old public administration and policy analysis are intended to bring greater expertise into public endeavors. Once organizational structures for programs have been created, public administrators turn their attention to the routine decisions concerning personnel, budgets, and operating procedures that help determine how well the programs will meet their mandated goals. Although policy analysts must concern themselves with questions o f organizational design and administrative feasibility, they seek to influence the choice of programs by the political process. One focuses exclusively on doing well what has been chosen; the other also considers the choice of what is to be done. Public administration has gradually come to include policy analysis among its professional activities. One reason is that the large bureaus and vague legislative mandates associated with an expanded public role in society require administrators

'consider the following assessment: "Although it may fail for many other reasons, such as lack of political support or trained personnel. it always fails for lack of knowledge, when and if it is allowed to get that fa? in Aaron Wildavsk~,Budgeting: A Cornparatrve Theory of Budgetary Processes (Boston- Little. Brown, 1975). p 354. Also see Allen Schick, "A Death ~nthe Bureaucracy. The Demise o f Federal PPB," Public Adminrstration Revrew. Vol. 33, no. 2. 1973, pp. 146156. '%Vccdrow Wilson. "The Study of Administration." Po1It;cal Scrence Quarterb. Vol 2. 1887, pp. 197-222.
no.

I,

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

to choose among alternative policies-they thus become consumers and producers of policy analysis relevant to their own agencies. Another reason lies in the usual absence of a clean separation between politics and administration, Woodrow Wilson's vision notwithstanding. The administrator must be able to secure resources and defend implementation decisions within the political process. Policy analysis may help accomplish these tasks. The 'hew" public odmin~stration explicitly abandons the notion that administration should be separate from politics." I t s practitioners seek to influence the adoption as well as the implementation o f policies. Professional training, therefore, must include methods both for predicting the consequences o f alternative policies so that informed choices can be made and for effectively participating in the political process so that the choices can be realized. Training in public administration thus often includes course work in policy analysis even though its primary focus remains management and operational decision making. Comparing policy analysis with journalism may at first seem strange. Journalists typically concern themselves with recent events; they are rarely called upon to make predictions about the future. When they write about public policy. the need to attract a wide readership often leads them to focus on the unusual and the sensational rather than the routine and the mundane. Narratives with victims, heros, and villains catch readers' interest more effectively than nuanced discussions o f competing social values. Their contribution to the political process, therefore, is more often introducing policy problems to the public agenda than providing systematic comparisons -. of alternative solutions. Nevertheless, policy analysts and journalists share severa1 goals and constraints. Tight deadlines drive much o f journalist; work. Because news quickly becomes stale, they often face the prospect o f not being able to publish unless they make the next edition. Similarly, the advice o f policy analysts, no matter how sophisticated and convincing, will be useless i f it is delivered to clients after they have had to vote, issue regulations, or otherwise make decisions. Rarely will it be the case o f better late than never. Tight deadlines lead journalists and policy analysts to develop similar strategies for gathering information. Files o f background information and networks o f knowledgeable people often serve as extremely valuable resources. They may enable journalists to put events quickly in context. They play a sim~lar role for policy analysts, but may also provide information useful for assessing technical, political, and administrati\!e feasibility of policy alternatives when time does not permit systematic investigation.12 Policy analysts, like journalists, wisely cultivate their information sources. Finally. communication is a primary concern. Journalists must be able to put their stories into words that will catch and keep the interest o f their readers. Policy analysts must do the same for their clients. Effecti\/e communication requires clear

,'Mew Public Administration seeks not only to carry out legislative lm~onsider follcwlng. dates i3 i^fl;sientl>, n ,d economically as possible, but to both ~nfluenceand execute policies which more qualit" of life fQr all." t i .George Frederickson, "Toward a New' Public A.drninistragenel.ally lmpl-o,,e fi,b/s A,irnmistratron (Scranton. Pa.: Chandler. 1971). P. 314. t,on,,, Irl F ~ ~ ?.i., ~ ~~~~~~d~ ! ~ /verr, see Martha S. Feldrnan. Order kV;thout DesW (palc 41to"0,- it.,c .dsiue of accumulated i a l $ .;. hdbr d Uni.;.r ;bt.r Pl.esc. 148s).

Policy Analysis as a Profession

35

writing-analysts must be able to explain their technical work in language that can clients. Also, because the attention and time o f clients are be understood by the~r scarce resources, writing must be concise and convincing to be effective -. In summary, we gain a perspective on policy analysis by comparing it to related professions. Like policy research, policy analysis employs social science theoly and empirical methods to predict the consequences o f alternative policies. Like journalism, policy analysis requires skills in information gathering and communication. Policy analysis is neither so narrow in scope as the old public administration nor so broad in scope as classical planning. Yet planners and public administrators who explicitly recognize participation in the political process as professionally legitimate may at times become advice givers to various political actors, thus playing the role o f policy analysts.

POLICY ANALYSIS AS A PROFESSION

Until the 1980s few of those actually doing policy analysis would have identified themselves as members of the policy analysis profession; even fewer were filling positions labeled "policy analyst." Many who do policy analysis held, and continue to hold, positions as economists, planners, program evaluators, budget analysts, operations researchers, and statisticians. In recent years, however, the policy analysis profession has emerged as an established profession. Positions labeled policy analyst are now more common in government agencies, and often these positions are filled by people who have been trained in graduate programs in p i i c y analysis. Many practicing analysts trained in a variety of disciplines have joined with academics to form a professional organization, the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.I3 even he less, the profession is still young and those who consider themselves members represent only a fraction o f those actually practicing the craft ofpolicy analysis. Practicing policy analysts work in a variety o f organizational settings, including federal, state, and local agencies and legislatures; consult~ng tirms: research institutes; trade assoc!ations and other organizations representing interest groups; and business and nonprofit corporations. W e focus here primarily on the US.context, but policy analysts can he h u n d in s~milarsettlngs in all the major industrialized countries." The way a:rysti praccice their craft is greatly influenced by the nature o f their relationships i \ ~ their i cl~ents ~and by the roles played by the clients in the political process. Becau:~those relationships and roles vary greatly acrgss organirations, \ve should exper: to see a wide range d'analytical styles. We consider the Val-ioils analytical styles and thelj- sthical implicrtiims in detail in the next chapter. For settlnps in which pci~cy analysts now, let us look at a few examplci of o~pnizational work.

l%ssaca~ion for IJublic F'r-iiw 1ri"l:n.; nr..: Yar~a~erncnt, PC i ; o i i ~ ; ~ ( !i.~,Jshlno~or,, , 20036-8736 infcricati?n about mernbershjr, 2nd a i - ~ ~ - , conC-;en=u~l :an b r r.r.ia,-rc(! -.:the f c l i o w ~ n ~ Worid Wide \.lle'et sdcl~r-si:asit .,el .;1\1er:!~:;,. :3; - - ,p,,,,,, .,vJ/ " ~ a rinterna~~onal conipa~-i;.>ns. Black\vell. 1987; i\'~lliam?!lLir, e d , AIIVIS,,!~ ( 7 r?U!tr: ~

0.c.
ESSir

(1..

? . i '

\.Url:

36

W h a t Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

First, consider the U.S. federal government. Where would w e find policy analysts? Beginning with the executive branch, w e could start our search right in the White House, where w e would find small but influential groups of analysts in the National Security Council and Policy Development staffs. A s presidential appointees in politically sensitive positions, they generally share closely the philosophy and goals of their administration. Their advice concerns the political, a s well a s economic and social, consequences of policy options. They often coordinate the work of policy analysts in other parts of the executive branch. T h e O 6 c e of Management and Budget (OMB) and, t o a lesser extent, the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) also play coordinating roles in the federal government. Analysts in O M B are responsible for predicting the costs t o the federal in the evaluation of particular government of changes in policy. They also part~cipate programs. T h e major role that O M B plays in the preparation of the administration budget gives its analysts great leverage in disputes with the federal agencies; it also often leads the analysts t o emphasize budgetary costs over social costs and benefits.15Analysts on the C E A d o not play as direct a role in the budgetary process and therefore retain greater freedom t o adopt the broad perspective of social costs and benefits. Without direct leverage over the agencies, however, their influence derives largely from the percept!on that their advice is based on the technical expertise of the discipline of economic^.^" Policy analysts work throughout the federal agencies. In addition t o small personal staffs, agency heads usually have analytical ofices reporting directly t o them." These ofices have a variety of names that usually include some combination of the words "policy," "planning," "administration," "evaluation," "economic," and "budget.'"8 For example, a t various times, the central analytical ofice in the Department of Energy has been called the "OfFice of the Assistant Secretary for Policy and Evaluatton" and the "Policy. Planning, and Analysis Ofice." Often, the heads of agency subdivisions have analytical staffs that provide advice and expertise relevant t o their . . substantive responsibilities. Later in this chapter, w e briefly consider policy analysls in the Department of Health and Human Services t o illustrate the sorts of functions analysts perform in federal agencies. Policy analysts also abound in the leg~slativebranch. Both the Congress as a whole and its individual members serve as clients. Policy analysts work for Congress

"For a d~scussion o f the inst~tutional role o f O M B . see Hugh Heclo. " O M B and the Presidency: The Problem of Neutral Competence," Public Interest, no. 38. 1975, pp. 80-98. For a history o f O M B . see Larry Berman, The Ofice o f Management and Budget and the Presidency 1921-1979 (Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press, 1979). IbHerbert Stein. "A Successful Accident: Recollections and Speculations about the CEA," Journolofconomic Perspecti\,es. Vol. 10, no. 3. 1996, pp. 3-21.

"For example, on the role of analys~s at the State Department, see Lucian Puzliaresi and Diane T . Berliner. "Pol~cy Analys~s at the Department o f State: The Policy Flanning Staff," Journal of Polrcy Analysis and Managemenr, Vol, 8. no. 3, 1989, pp. 379-94. Also see Robert H. Nelson, "The Office of Policy Analys~s in the Department o f the Interior." pp. 395110 in the same issue. I S ~recently s as the mid-1970s only a small fraction of the ofices responsible for doing policy analysis actually had ''policy'' or "policy analysis" In their names. Arnold J. Meltsner. Policy Analysts in the Bureaucracy (Berkeley: University ofCalifornia Press. 1976). pp. 173-77.

Policy Analysis As a Profession in the General Accounting Office (GAO).I9 the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Congressional Research Service (CRS), and, until its recent elimination. the Office o f Technology Assessment (OTA)." The analytical agendas o f these offices are set primarily by the congressional leadership, but sometimes by the requests o f individual congressional members as well. Of course, members o f congress have their own personal staffs, including legislative analysts. Most o f the analysis and formulation of legislation, however, is done by committee staffs that report t o committee chairs and ranking minority r n e m b e r ~ .Committee ~' staffers, often recruited from the campaign and personal staffs o f members of congress, must be politically sensitive if they are t o maintain their positions and influence. Congressional staff involved with legislation-and therefore t o some extent working as policy analysts, even though often trained as lawyers-number in the thousands.22 H o w influential is policy analysp in policy formation and choice in Congress? surrounding four policy issues in the Based on his detailed study o f commun~cat~on areas o f health and transportation, Da'hfWhiteman concludes: "The results . . . clearly indicate that policy analysis clearly does flow through congressional communication networks. In three of the four issues examined. analytic information played a significant role in congressional de~iberations."~~ Much o f the communication takes place through discussions between congressional staffers and analysts in government offices and think tanks rather than as formal written reports. Turning t o state governments, w e find a similar pattern. Governors and agency heads usually have staffs o f advisors who do policy analysis. Most states Perhave budget offices that play roles similar t o that o f OMB at the federal sonal and committee staffs provide analysis in the state legislatures; in some states such as California, the legislatures have offices much like the Congresshnal Budget Office t o analyze the impact o f proposed legislation.

I 9 ~ h General e Accounting Office and the Bureau o f the Budget, the forerunner o f OMB, were

established in 1921 with the creation ofan executive budget system. During much o f its history, GAO devoted its efforts primarily to auditing government activities. In the late-1960s, however, GAO became a major producer o f policy analys~s in the form o f program evaluations with recommendations for future actions. Because GAO must serve both parties and both legislative houses, and because its reports are generally public, it faces stronger incentives t o produce politically neutral analyses than OMB. For a comparative history of these "twins." see Frederick C . Mosher, A Tale o f Two Agencies: A Comporotiw Analysis o f the General Accounting Ofice and the Ofice of Manapment and Budget (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press. 1984). 'O~oran account o f the elimination o f the O T A and a comparison with the larger congressional support agencies that survived, see Bruce Bimber. The Politics o f Expertrse tn Congress: The R~se and Fall o f the Ofice o f Technology Assessment (Albany: State University o f N e w York Press, 1996). "see Carol H. Weiss, "Congressional Committees as Users o f Analysis." Journal o f PaIiv AnalySisandManagement, Vol. 8, no. 3. 1989, p p 411431. " ~ i c h a e lJ. Malbin, UnelectedRepresentatives(New York: Basic Books. 1980). p p 252-56.

avid Whiteman. Communtcation ,n Congress: Members, Staff: and the Search for InJormation (Lawrence: University of Kansas Press. 1995). p 181.
24~o arsurvey. see Robert D. Lee, Jr.. and Raymond J. Staffeldt. "Executive and Legislative Use of Policy Analysis in the State Budgetary Process: Survey Results." Poliv Analysis. Vol. 3, no. 3. 1977, pp. 395-405.

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

At the county and municipal levels, legislative bodies rarely employ persons Executive agencies, including budget and who work primarily as policy analysts.25 planning offices, usually do have some personnel whose major responsibility is policy analysis. Except in the most populous jurisdictions, however, most analysis is done by persons with line or managerial duties. Consequently, they often lack the time, expertise, and resources for conducting analyses o f great technical sophistication. Nevertheless, because they often have direct access to decision makers, and because they can often observe the consequences o f their recommendations firsthand, policy analysts at the local level can find their work professionally gratifying despite the resource constraints they face. What do public agencies do i f their own personnel cannot produce a desired or mandated analysis? I f they have funds available, then the agencies can purchase analysis from consultants. Local and state agencies commonly turn to consultants for advice about special issues, such as the construction o f new facilities or major reorganizations, or to meet evaluation requirements imposed by intergovernmental grant programs. Federal agencies not only use consultants for special studies, but also as routine supplements to their own staff resources. In extreme cases, consulting firms may serve as "body shops" for government ofices, providing the services o f analysts who cannot be hired directly because o f civil service or other restrictions2' The importance o f the relationship between client and analyst is extremely apparent to consultants. Usually. the consultants are paid to produce specific products. If they wish to be rehired in the future by their clients, then they must analyses
that the clients percetve as useful. Consultants who pander to the prejudices o f their clients at the expense o f analytical honesty are sometimes described as "hired guns" or "beltway bandits." Consultants best able to resist the temptation to pander are probably those who have a large clientele, provide very specialized skills, or enjoy a reputation for providing balanced analysis; they will not suffer greatly from the loss o f any one client, and they will be able to find replacement business elsewhere if necessary. Researchers in academia, "think tanks." and policy research institutes also provide consulting services. Although their work is usually not directly tied to specific policy decisions, researchers at places like the Rand Corporation, the Brookings Institution, the American Enterprise lnstitute for Public Policy Research, the Urban Institute, Resources for the Future, the Institute for Defense Analyses, and the lnstitute for Research on Public Policy (Canada) sometimes do produce analyses o f narrow interest for specific clients. It is often difficult in practice to determine whether these researchers better fit the policy analysis or the policy research paradigms presented above. With the explosion in the number o f think tanks in recent years, more and more issues attract policy analyses from think tanks.27Many of the newer think

25Thereare some exceptions See Gale March 1977).

G. Whiteneck, Assessment o f

State and Local Government

Ei~aluat,onPract,ces: A n h,oluation Unit Profle (Denver: Denver Research InstituteIUniversity o f Denver.

26Fora ,tudy o f the use o f consultants by the federal government, see James
tants Can Help (Lexington, Mass : Lexington Books, 1979).

D. Marver. Consul-

*'For instance, The Capital Source (Washington, D C : The National Journal, Fall 1997) lists 114 think tanks in the Washington area (pp. 73-75) from the Alan Guttmacher Institute, which focuses on population issues, to the Worldwatch Institute, which focuses on environmental issues.

A Closer Look at Analytical Functions

39

tanks with strong ideological ident~fications, however, have predispositions toward articular policies that often interfere with the professional validity o f the analyses they provide. . . Finally, large numbers o f analysts neither work for, nor sell their services to, governments. They often work in profit-seeking firms in industries heavily regulated by govemment, in trade as ociations and national labor unions concerned with particular areas of legislation, bnd in nonprofit corporations that have public missions in their charters. For e x ~ - e l econsider , a proposal to make health insurance premiums aid by employers count as taxable income for employees. Private firms, trade associations, and labor unions would seek analysis to help determine the impact o f the proposed change on the pattern and cost of employee benefits. The American Medical Associat~on would seek analysis o f the impact on the demand for physician services. Health insurance providers, such as Blue Cross and Blue Shield, commercial insurers, and health maintenance organizations, would want predictions o f the effect of the change on the demand for the? plans and the cost o f medical care. These interests might also ask their analysts how to develop strategies for supporting, fighting, or modiQing the proposal as it moves through the political process. It should be obvious from our brief survey that policy analysts work in a variety of organizational settings on problems ranging in scope from municipal refuse collection to national defense. But what sorts o f functions do analysts actually in their organizations?

A CLOSER LOOK AT ANALYTICAL FUNCTIONS

At the beginning o f this chapter, we pointed out that the nature o f policy analysis
can vary widely. In the subsequent chapters, we set out a framework for doing comprehensive policy analysis-how an individual analyst should go about producing a structured analysis that assesses problems presented by clients and systematically compares alternatives for solving them. This is the most appropriate pedagogic approach because it encompasses the range o f functions that analysts commonly perform. By mastering it, analysts not only prepare themselves for performing the inclusive functions but also gain a useful framework for putting what they are doing into wrswctive. . , Rather than describe these inclusive functions in the abstract, we present a brief overview of some o f the policy analytic functions identified by the Department o f Health and Human Services (DHHS). W e single out DHHS for two reasons. First, it is a very large federal agency with responsibilities that demand the full range of analytical functions Second, DHHS has written down what i t sees to be the important functions o f its policy analysts. D H H S i s very large by any measure. It oversees many specialized agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration, the National Institutes of Health, the Health Care Financing Administration, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to name just a few. In fiscal year 1997, it administered spending o f over $340 billion, issued more grants than any other federal agency, and employed more than 130,000 people nationwide in its constituent units. As such, it is one o f the largest and most complex bureaus in the world. DHHS is o f such size and scope that the Office of the Secretary (OS), the central coordinating ofice for HHS, itself

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

employs approximately twenty-four hundred people. The purpose o f the O S includes providing independent advice and analysis concerning program issues, analyzing trade-offs among programs, and developing common policies across agencies. and monitoring, there is no While much o f what the OS does involves administrat~on clear separation o f these tasks from policy analysis. Although policy analysts can be found throughout DHHS, it is useful t o focus on the Office of the Assistant Secretary, Planning and Evaluation (ASPE), because it has the clearest and most direct mandate for doing policy analysis. (The Office o f the Assistant Secretary, Management and Budget has closely related policy analysis responsibilities, but with greater emphasis on budgetary and cost issues: the two ofanalysis projects.) ASPE analysts perform a varifices often work together on ~ o l i c y etv -- I of -~functions. A n ASPE orientation document specjf;cally alerts new analysts to four major functions that they will be likely to perform:" First, analysts play a "desk officei' function that involves coordinating policy relevant to specific program areas and serving as a contact for the line agencies within DHHS that have responsibilities in these areas. For example, a desk officer research issues and work closely with analysts and other permight cover biomed~cal sonnel at the National Institutes o f Health. Desk oficers serve as the eyes and ears of the department, "going out to the agency. talking with the staff about issues and options before they reach decision points. and knowing what issues are moving and what are not.''29Desk officers are also expected to reach outside of D H H S to identlfy concerns and ideas from academics and those who deal with the programs in the field. By staying on top of issues, desk officers can provide quick assessments of proposed policy changes in their areas. Second, analysts perform a policy development function. This is important to D H H S because ASPE resources "constitute some o f the few flexible analytic resources in the Policy development often involves special initiatives within DHHS, but it can also be done through task forces that include personnel from other departments. These initiatives often result in policy option papers or specific legislative proposals. Third, analysts perform a policy research and oversight function. ''ASPE spends approximately $20 million a year in both policy research and evaluation funds" to carry out this core function3' I t is important to emphasize that D H H S , like many other government agencies, contracts out a considerable amount o f policy-relevant research, therefore analysts at ASPE are both consumers and praducerr o f policy research and analysis. ASPE analysts also participate in reviews o f the research plans of other agencies, help formulate and justify plans for allocating evaluation funds, and serve on agency ~anels that award research contracts and grants. Fourth, analysts perform a "firefighting" funct~on. Fires can be "anything from a request from the White House to review the statement o f administration accomplishments on welfare reform . . . to preparing an instant briefing for congressional
~-

'8Ass~stantSecretary. Pollcy and Evaluat~on. "All About APSE: A Guide for APSE Staff." no date. ''lbid., E-I. lalbid.,E-2. 3'lbid.. E-2.

Basic Preparation for Policy Analysis

41

staff because a key committee is preparing to mark up a bill, to helping . . . [the] Office of the Secretary prepare for a meeting with a key outside group tomorrow."32 The term "firefighting" conveys the urgency of the task-analysts drop whatever else they are doing until the fire is put out! -. I hese four categories o f functions show the great variety o f tasks that analysts are routinely called upon to perform. Some of these tasks are ongoing, others are episodic. Some have short deadlines, others extend for long periods. Some are internal to the analysts' organizations, others require interaction with external analysts and decision make~s.Someinvolve topics o f great fmiliarity, others present novel i r sues. What sorts o f basic skills help analysts prepare for this diversity o f tasks?

1
BASIC PREPARATION FOR POLICY ANALYSIS
Policy analysis is as much an art and a crafi as a science." Just as the successful portrait~st must be able to apply the skills of the crafi o f painting within an aesthetic perspective, the successful policy analyst must be able to apply basic skills within a reasonably consistent and realistic perspective on the role o f government in society. In order to integrate effectively the art and crafi of policy analysis, preparation in five areas is essential. First, analysts must know how to gather, organize, and communicate infonnation in situations in which deadlines are strict and access to relevant people is limited. They must be able to develop strategies for quickly understanding the nature o f policy problems and the range o f possible solutions. They must also be able to identify, at least qualitatively. the likely costs and benefits o f alternative solutions and communicate these assessments t o their clients. Chapter 10 focuses on the development o f these basic informational skills. Second, analysts need a perspective for putting perceived social problems in context. When is it legitimate for government to intervene in private affairs? In the United States, the normative answer to this question has usually been based on the concept of market failure-a circumstance in which the pursuit o f private interest does not lead to an eficient use o f society's resources or a fair distribution o f society s goods. But market failures, or widely shared nonnative claims for the desirabili y of social goals other than eefciency, such as greater equity in the distributions o f economic and political resources, should be viewed as only necessary conditions for appropriate government intervention. Sufficiency requires that the form o f the intervention not involve consequences that would inflict greater social costs than social benefits. Identification o f these costs o f intervention is facilitated by an understanding of the ways collective action can fail. In other words, the analyst needs a perspective that includes governmentjiilure as well as market failure. The six chapters of Part II provide such a perspective. Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7 analyze the various market failures and other rationales that have been identified; Chapter 8 discusses the systematic ways that government interventions tend to lead to undesirable social

The Art and Crafi o f Policy Analysis

3 3 ~ oan r excellent statement o f this vtewpoint. see Aaron Wildavsky. Speoktng T r o h (Boston: Little, Brown. 1979),pp. 385406.

to Power:

62

What Is Policy Analysis?

Chap. 2

outcomes: and Chapter 9 reviews generic policy solutions for correcting market and government failures. These chapters provide a "capital stock o f ideas for categorizing and understanding social problems and proposing alternative policies for dealing with them. Third, analysts need technical skills to enable them t o predict better and to evaluate more confidently the consequences o f alternative policies. The disciplines o f economics and statistics serve as primary sources for these skills. Although w e introduce some important concepts from microeconomics, public finance, and statistics in chapters, those readers who envision careers in policy analysis would the follow~ng be well advised t o take courses devoted t o these subjects.34Even an introduction t o policy analysis, however, should include the basics o f benefit-cost analysis, the subject of Chapter 12. Chapters 15 and I6 illustrate the application o f benefit-cost analysis and related techniques. Fourth, analysts must have an understanding o f political and organizational behavior in order t o predict, and perhaps influence, the feasibility o f adoption and successful implementation o f policies. Also, understanding the worldviews o f clients and potential opponents enables the analyst t o marshal evidence and arguments more effectively. W e assume that readers have a basic familiarity with democratic political systems. Therefore, practical applications o f theories o f political and organizational behavior are ~ntegrated with subject matter throughout the text, but particularly in the context o f thinking strategically about attaining goals (Chapter 13), informationgathering skills (Chapter lo), and government failure (Chapter 8), and in the case Cha~ter 15). studies (es~eciallv a n i l y s t s ' ~ h o ~ lhave d an ethical framework that explicitly takes account o f their relationships t o clients. Analysts often face dilemmas when the private preferences and interests o f their clients diverge substantially from their own perceptions o f the public interest. Approaches t o the development o f professional ethics for policy analysts is the subject o f the next chapter.

ina ail^,

There are three reasons why a solid ground~ng In economics and statist~cs is important for the professional policy analyst: (I) the techniques o f these disciplines are often directly applicable to policy problems: (2) researchers who use economic models and statistical techniques are important sources of policy research-the abil~ty t o iriterpret the~r work is therefore valuable: and (3) analytical opponents may use or abuse these techniques-self-protection requires a basic awareness of the strengths and limitat~ons of the techniques.

34