Chapter 28- “Money growth and inflation”
THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION
• Inflation is an increase in the overall level of prices.
• Hyperinflation is an extraordinarily high rate of inflation.
• Inflation: Historical Aspects
• Over the past 60 years, prices in the U.S. have risen on average about 5
percent per year.
• Deflation, meaning decreasing average prices, occurred in the U.S. in the
nineteenth century.
• Hyperinflation refers to high rates of inflation such as Germany
experienced in the 1920s.
• In the 1970s prices rose by 7 percent per year.
• During the 1990s, prices rose at an average rate of 2 percent per year.
The Level of Prices and the Value of Money
• The quantity theory of money is used to explain the long-run determinants of the
price level and the inflation rate.
• Inflation is an economy-wide phenomenon that concerns the value of the
economy’s medium of exchange.
• When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls.
Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium
• The money supply is a policy variable that is controlled by the Fed.
• Through instruments such as open-market operations, the Fed directly controls the
quantity of money supplied.
• Money demand has several determinants, including interest rates and the average
level of prices in the economy.
• People hold money because it is the medium of exchange.
• The amount of money people choose to hold depends on the prices of
goods and services.
• In the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand
for money equals the supply.
The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality
• Nominal variables are variables measured in monetary units.
• Real variables are variables measured in physical units.
• According to Hume and others, real economic variables do not change with
changes in the money supply.
• According to the classical dichotomy, different forces influence real and nominal
variables.
• Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.
• The irrelevance of monetary changes for real variables is called monetary
neutrality.
Velocity and the Quantity Equation
• The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels
around the economy from wallet to wallet.
• V= (P x Y)/M
• where: V = velocity
P = the price level
Y = the quantity of output
M = the quantity of money
• Rewriting the equation gives the quantity equation: M × V = P × Y
• The quantity equation relates the quantity of money (M) to the nominal value of
output
(P × Y).
• The quantity equation shows that an increase in the quantity of money in an
economy must be reflected in one of three other variables:
• The price level must rise,
• the quantity of output must rise, or
• the velocity of money must fall.
• The Equilibrium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity Theory of Money
• The velocity of money is relatively stable over time.
• When the Fed changes the quantity of money, it causes proportionate
changes in the nominal value of output (P × Y).
• Because money is neutral, money does not affect output.
The Inflation Tax and The Fisher Effect
• When the government raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an
inflation tax.
• An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.
• The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in
government spending.
• The Fisher effect refers to a one-to-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to
the inflation rate.
• According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal
interest rate rises by the same amount.
• The real interest rate stays the same.
THE COSTS OF INFLATION
• Shoeleather costs
• Menu costs
• Relative price variability
• Tax distortions
• Confusion and inconvenience
• Arbitrary redistribution of wealth
Shoeleather Costs
• Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to
reduce their money holdings.
• Inflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize
their cash holdings.
• Less cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from
interest-bearing accounts.
• The actual cost of reducing your money holdings is the time and convenience you
must sacrifice to keep less money on hand.
• Also, extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.
Menu Costs
• Menu costs are the costs of adjusting prices.
• During inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted
prices.
• This is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive
activities.
Relative-Price Variability and the Misallocation of Resources
• Inflation distorts relative prices.
• Consumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources
to their best use.
Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion
• Inflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this
type of income.
• With progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily.
• The income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income, even
though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation.
• The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.
Confusion and Inconvenience
• When the Fed increases the money supply and creates inflation, it erodes the real
value of the unit of account.
• Inflation causes dollars at different times to have different real values.
• Therefore, with rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs,
and profits over time.
A Special Cost of Unexpected Inflation: Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth
• Unexpected inflation redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has
nothing to do with either merit or need.
• These redistributions occur because many loans in the economy are specified in
terms of the unit of account—money.
