Fall 2015

A Whole New Ballgame

CUBA

A Whole New
Ballgame
By Valerie Wirtschafter with Julia Sweig

uring the early 20th century, the hegemony of the

United States on the island shaped diplomatic
relations between the U.S. and Cuba one factor
that drove Fidel Castros revolutionary fervor and fueled
the Cuban Revolution. During the Cold War, mutual
hostility and distrust defined relations. Cuba served as one
of the main theaters in which the U.S. and the Soviet Union
waged many of their power struggles. But on December 17,
2014, something astonishing happened: the governments of
the United States and Cuba decided to reshape this fraught
history and chart a new course in diplomatic relations, one
built on dialogue and compromise, as well as a shadow of
mutual understanding.
In an obviously choreographed effort, at 12:01 p.m.,
Eastern Standard Time, both Ral Castro and Barack
Obama took the podium to announce a historic thaw in
bilateral relations. In a vow to cut loose the shackles of
the past, President Obama announced a new approach to
relations between the two countries, including a relaxation
of restrictions on remittances to the island, increased
travel and banking opportunities, and a restoration of
diplomatic relations, among other changes. Ral Castro,
in turn, declared that the thaw would allow Cuba to
embark on the task of updating our economic model in
order to build a prosperous and sustainable socialism.
The Cuban government committed to increasing access
to the Internet and released 53 political prisoners. As the
crux of the deal, both agreed to a swap of the remaining
three of the Cuban Five, intelligence officers held in
U.S. prisons since 1998, for a U.S. agent named Rolando
Sarraff Trujillo and Alan Gross, a United States Agency
for International Development (USAID) subcontractor.
Since then, the U.S. and Cuban governments have
announced a dizzying array of changes to bilateral
relations, ranging from the reestablishment of embassies to
the removal of Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism
list. In March 2016, the world saw a sitting U.S. president,
Barack Obama, set foot on Cuban soil an event that has
only occurred once in history, when Calvin Coolidge visited
the island in 1928. The sum total of these changes is enough
to overwhelm and excite any student of Latin American
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Photo from the U.S. Department of State.

Barack Obama and his family take in a baseball game in Havana with Ral Castro in March 2016.

history. However, the story of how we got to where we are

today, as well as the circumstances that drove Ral Castro
and Barack Obama to the table for an unprecedented series
of secret negotiations, is fundamental to understanding
the new course set in motion in December 2014 and the
future of [Link] relations, more broadly.
When President Barack Obama assumed office in
2009, Latin Americas turn to the left was already in full

swing. From Luiz Incio Lula da Silva in Brazil to Michelle

Bachelet in Chile, Latin Americas New Left swept into
power in the early 21st century with a populist message of
greater economic, social, and political inclusion. The United
States outdated treatment of Cuba as a pariah served as a
unifying symbol for many of these leaders and also offered
a constant reminder of the historically imperial habits of the
United States in Latin America throughout much of the 20th

century. Calls for a shift in U.S. policy toward Cuba were

already resounding throughout much of the region, but the
Obama administration was not yet ready or perhaps not
yet able to heed these cries for change.
In 2009, the Cuban government arrested and jailed
a USAID subcontractor named Alan Gross for crimes
against the Cuban state after he attempted to bring
satellite phones and computer equipment to Cubas small
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A Whole New Ballgame

Fall 2015

Photo by Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images.

20072008 presidential campaign, which then-candidate

Hillary Clinton adamantly opposed.

Though Latin American pressure played a significant
role in getting President Obama and his team of advisors
to the table, shifting politics in the United States
around the Cuba issue also shaped the administrations
willingness, and ability, to negotiate. As the direct impact
of the Cuban Revolution gradually becomes a narrative
of history books rather than a first-hand reality for
more and more Cuban Americans, the intense outcry
against engagement has also begun to subside. According
to an Atlantic Council poll released in early 2014,
Cuban Americans in Florida are now more in favor of
engagement than isolation. In the Florida gubernatorial
race that same year, they validated this polling data
through votes at the ballot box. Although he ultimately
lost the election, a Democrat won the support of the
Cuban American population for the first time, arguably
a vindication or at least not a rejection of his open
support for ending the embargo. Undoubtedly, Obama,
who had won a second term following the Cartagena
Summit, saw the momentum shifting among the Cuban
American population and seized it as an opportunity to
shape his presidential legacy.
Jose Mart rides through Central Park in New York.

For Ral Castro, the rationale behind engagement is

also in some ways about legacy, but it is even more about
Cubas future what the Communist Party now calls
the updating of the Cuban social and economic model.
In 2018, he plans to step down from the presidency, and
for the first time, someone outside the Castro family
will drive Cubas ever-evolving transformation. Moving
forward, neither the personality of Cubas leaders nor antiimperial nationalism will be enough to sustain the islands
revolutionary project. By engaging with the United States
now, Castro hopes to leave behind some permanent sense of
autonomy in foreign policy and to secure fiscal, monetary
and investment policies that can sustain both growth and
a modicum of social justice for future generations.
In Cuba, the definition of revolution is now
amorphous: socialism has supplanted communism,
and with it, Jos Mart has triumphed over Karl Marx.
Propaganda billboards that all-too-familiarly dot Cubas
sparse highways now boast the slogan Growth is Good. In
a remarkable shift in rhetoric, Castro talks about equality
of opportunity as the focus of the Revolution rather than
egalitarianism. Slowly but surely, he is trying to fortify
Cubas economy by weaning the population off what one
prominent Cuban official referred to as the Daddy State.
>>

A young Cuban with an American flag below the motto of the Cuban Revolution, Venceremos! (We shall overcome!)

Jewish community. For the United States government

at the time, his arrest became an impediment to the
possibility of a bilateral opening between the two
countries. As long as Gross was in prison, any potential
for a thaw in relations appeared to be off the table entirely.
The Cuban government also resisted any thaw as long as
the Cuban Five remained in U.S. prisons. As a result, a
political Frankenstein was born that seemed capable of
thwarting any attempted negotiations.
Three years later in early 2012, at the Summit of the
Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, the Cuba question
soured the two-day affair and hindered productive dialogue
among leaders in the region. The impasse was so severe
that, in the words of the New York Times, the meeting
ended without a final statement of consensusafter the
United States and some Latin American nations remained
sharply divided over whether to continue excluding Cuba
from such gatherings. Latin American nations had
drawn a clear red line: either Cuba would be invited to the
next Summit of the Americas in Panama in 2015 or the
Inter-American system as defined by the longstanding
but fading dominance of the U.S. at the Organization of
American States would, in effect, cease to function.
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Notably, even the United States most loyal allies in

the region, including President Juan Manuel Santos of
Colombia, were supportive of such a drastic ultimatum.
Hillary Clinton, who in her capacity as Secretary of State
had attended the summit in Cartagena with President
Obama, also understood this reality. Before she left the
State Department in 2013, she authorized the drafting
of an exit memo laying out the absolute most the United
States could do to overhaul its diplomatic approach to
Cuba and, as a result, revive its foundering influence in
the region.

While some of the plans in the memo have yet to come
to pass, including a lifting of the embargo, much of what
was envisioned has been announced over the past year.
With his announcement on December 17, 2014, President
Obama demonstrated to the Western Hemisphere nations
that he was finally willing do what none of the 11 presidents
before him had done: listen to the rationale of the United
States Latin American neighbors. Rather than continue
in vain to try to change Cuba through covert operations
and sanctions, he now understood that the best way to
gain influence on the island was through open dialogue,
a posture he had in any case first suggested during the

Photo by David Shankbone.

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A Whole New Ballgame

Fall 2015

a 366-day period. They are also drawn to Spain because of

what is known as the grandchildrens law, which provides
a Spanish passport to any Cuban citizen who can prove
Spanish lineage. Or to Ecuador, which until recently had
no visa requirement.
Young people who do stay in Cuba and a notable
cohort of those who are returning from Spain and the
United States are demanding a better life, a less
onerous daily existence, and the opportunity to make a
good living. A thaw in relations with the United States
allows the Cuban government to foster a stable economic,
diplomatic, and business partnership for future
generations. In turn, this partnership will help feed into
the geographic, demographic, and geopolitical needs of
the country moving forward.
Though the preconditions that brought the U.S. and
Cuban governments to the table were vital, the personalities
involved on both sides mattered a great deal to making the
December 2014 announcement a reality. From the Vatican
and the Catholic Church in both the U.S. and Cuba to the
U.S. Congress and the White House, the individuals who
played a role in setting the stage for the two governments
to broker a diplomatic thaw could not have been better
suited for the task at hand. At points when the talks seemed
like they might be going sour, what ultimately drove them

Photo by Christian Cordva.

in Cuba. Instead of people in the

street brokering properties on the
black market, there are actual realestate agencies on the island. Cuban
nationals can now get a loan from the
bank and buy property a previously
unfathomable reality and small
business loans (albeit very small) are
slated to come on line soon.
With nearly unlimited remittances flowing to the island, anyone
from the United States can fund
these private sales and businesses.
At present, U.S. citizens send an
estimated $3.2 billion in remittances
to Cuba annually, up from around
$242 million in 1993. This amount will
undoubtedly grow in the coming years.
A commuter economy between Cuba
and South Florida is rapidly taking
hold: remittance dollars are financing
small businesses on the island, which
in turn are plowing money into the
South Florida economy, which is
exporting all manner of supplies, as
A small businessman on the beach in Havana.
well as capital, to the family business
and
cooperative
economy.
Commercial (rather than
When Ral Castro took over for his brother, Fidel,
charter) flights and ferries are set to take off in 2016.
in 2006, he recognized the need for the revolutionary
Ral Castro implemented his economic reform
model to evolve if it were to survive through the next
package to revive Cubas economy, which is hampered by
generation. In 2010, he bluntly stated, We reform, or we
lack of production and a dependency on an economically
sink. Through calculated reforms, Castro has worked to
untenable Venezuela. Given the United States proximity
rewrite the social contract and strengthen Cubas economy
to the island, opening up relations creates a natural
by opening up opportunities in the private sector. Since
trading partner for Cuba as it seeks to diversify its
2009, he has endeavored to cut the public-sector payroll by
economic activity. The most tangible reflection of this
one million people in a population of twelve million.
aspiration is the recent $1 billion renovation of the

There are now approximately 200 activities for private
enormous, deep-water port at Mariel, with the support
business that can be licensed to the Cuban population.
of Brazilian investment. The Mariel Port is designated a
However, even with that limited number, the government
special economic development zone, where incentives
has issued some 400,000 licenses for Cubans to run their
are used to encourage international companies to conduct
own businesses. Ral Castro and his ministers now talk
business. By renovating the port, Cuba has set itself up in
of, at least as an aspiration, some 50 percent of Cubas
a post-embargo world as a major outpost for the United
economy in private hands within the next five years. The
States in the Caribbean.
state no longer controls or desires to control every
Castro has also been forced to deal with the politics of
aspect of economic life. Small businesses and employeepent-up demand. Many Cubans, who are highly educated
owned cooperatives are legal and beginning to flourish
but lack opportunity, are pushing for the chance to put their
(or flounder) as private enterprises do around the world.
superior education to work. Those who are unable to find
Through a series of agricultural reforms, the government
what they need on the island are lured to the United States
has privatized large plots of untilled, but fertile, land
by the Cuban Adjustment Act, which gives any Cuban
in an attempt to increase domestic production. A
citizen who arrives on U.S. soil permanent residence after
private residential real-estate market is also growing

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Pope Francis waves to the crowd while visiting Havana in September 2015.

forward were more human concerns than political ones:

the wish of Adriana Prez to become pregnant even though
her husband, Gerardo Hernndez, one of the Cuban Five,
remained locked away in a U.S. jail and the influence of
Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont to bring this wish to
fruition, in an effort that the New York Times cheekily
referred to as sperm diplomacy; a deep concern for Alan
Grosss deteriorating physical and mental state as he sat
for years in Cuban prison; and the shared moral language
of the Catholic faith, shaped by Cardinal Jaime Ortega in
Cuba, Cardinal Theodore Edgar McCarrick in Washington,
D.C., Cardinal Sen Patrick OMalley of Boston, and Pope
Francis, the first head of the Catholic Church from Latin
America, who had also accompanied Pope John Paul to the
island in the 1990s and authored a book about his travels.
In each of these instances, and others, the actors involved
relied on personal interactions and human concerns to
build a tenuous trust as the formal negotiation process
continued in secret.
The talks took place over a period of 18 months,
mainly in Ottawa, Canada, and they culminated at the
Vatican a symbolic blessing by Pope Francis without
a single leak or break in protocol. Perhaps what is most
stunning about the [Link] rapprochement is that, in
an age when the media operates around the clock and the
>>

Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images.

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A Whole New Ballgame

Internet and social media are pervasive, these negotiations

were kept secret. Some in the United States have criticized
Obama for too many unilateral steps or giving away too
much to superficially address human rights abuses. The
Cuban gamble, however, may be even more consequential:
by opening up to the United States, Ral Castro is placing
a high-stakes bet on how much control he is willing to give
up to take the steps required to preserve the fundamentals
of the Cuban Revolution.
When Ral Castro hands over power in 2018, it is
unclear at this stage how his chosen successor will
keep this new consensus together. Ral hopes that an
infusion of investment on the island and a diversified
trade and diplomatic portfolio, which has space for the
United States but doesnt return the kind of hegemony
that country once had, will create a more sustainable Cuba
that is equal parts proud of its successes and open to new
ideas and healthy debate. Obamas gamble is that direct
dialogue and overt, but constructive, criticism will help
Cuba transition toward a more open society.
The United States and Cuba will continue to convene
bilateral meetings to build on existing diplomatic
momentum. The biggest change to come is the congressional
repeal of the embargo, which prohibits U.S. citizens from

traveling to Cuba for tourism, for example. The White

House is hoping that enhanced commercial activity, made
possible by Obamas use of executive authority, will compel
congressional action to repeal the embargo sooner rather
than later. Though it is hard to predict which presidents
gamble will ultimately pay off, what is certain is that
consolidating this new normal in bilateral relations
hinges first and foremost upon economic engagement.
Fostering stronger economic ties will be critical not only
to repealing the embargo and driving bilateral relations
forward, but also to ensuring that the gains made so far
outlast the Obama administration, regardless of who wins
the presidency in the United States in 2016.
Julia E. Sweig is Senior Research Fellow at the Lyndon B.
Johnson School of Public Affairs at UT Austin. Her talk
The United States and Cuba: Recent History and the Path
Forward on September 17, 2015, was co-sponsored by
the Center for Latin American Studies and the Institute of
International Studies.
Valerie Wirtschafter is a consultant on [Link] relations.
She previously provided research support to Dr. Julia E.
Sweig at the Council on Foreign Relations.

A man stands on his Old Havana balcony celebrating the restoration of diplomatic relations with the U.S.

Photo by Ramon Espinosa/Associated Press.

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