THE SCIENCE AND CONSEQUENCES

OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
SCIENCE BRIEF 3 AUGUST 2009

Since the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of the worlds sponding to more acidic conditions. Before humans began
oceans has increased significantly. This change is entirely emitting large quantities of CO2, the pH of the oceans was
the result of human activities. About one third of all the 8.18.2 (Caldeira and Wickett 2005). Since then, the pH of the
carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activities has oceans has declined by 0.1 unit (Figure 1; Orr et al. 2005; IPCC
been absorbed by the oceans. The uptake of CO2 by the 2007a). This change might sound small, but it represents a 26
oceans produces carbonic acid, altering the chemistry of percent increase in acidity.2 This change is fundamentally
the oceans and making seawater corrosive to some miner- altering the seawater chemistry to which marine life has
als. Without strong action to reduce CO2 emissions, the adapted over millions of years. In its Fourth Assessment
oceans will deteriorate to conditions detrimental to shell- Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
forming organisms, coral reefs, and the marine food (IPCC) estimates from its mid-range projection for future
chain, thus threatening fisheries and marine ecosystems emissions that the pH of the oceans will decline by an
generally. This brief describes the changes in the additional 0.3 to 0.4 unit (or become 2 to 2.5 times more acidic
chemistry of the worlds oceans and explores the potential than the pre-industrial oceans) by 2100 (IPCC 2007b, p. 793).
implications for marine ecosystems and the
global food supply. Ocean CO2 Content pH
400. 8.14
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activ-
380. ESTOC 8.12 ESTOC
ity, particularly CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels,
are increasing the heat-trapping capacity of the 360. 8.10
atmosphere.1 However, not all of the CO2 emitted
340. 8.08
by human activities remains in the atmosphere
about one third of manmade CO2 emissions have 320.
oceanic pCO2 (atm)

380. 8.14
been absorbed by the oceans (Sabine et al. 2004). HOT
Without this ocean carbon sink, the atmospheric HOT 360. 8.12
pH
concentration of CO2 would be even higher than it
340. 8.10
is today. Although the ocean carbon sink has
delayed some of the impacts of climate change, the 320. 8.08

accumulation of carbon in the oceans is beginning 300.

380. 8.14
to change the chemistry of seawater, which is likely
BATS BATS
to have detrimental impacts on marine ecosystems 360. 8.12
and cause the fraction of manmade CO2 that the
340. 8.10
oceans can absorb to decrease in the coming
decades. 320. 8.08

300.
Ocean acidification is happening now. Acidity is 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

measured in pH units, with decreasing pH corre- Year

Figure 1: Changes in surface ocean CO2 content (left) and pH (right) from three
1 See Pews Science Brief 1, The Causes of Global
measurement stations. The upper data set was recorded in the Atlantic Ocean off
Climate Change. the coast of West Africa, the middle data set was recorded near Hawaii, and the
2 The pH scale is logarithmic, meaning that 1 pH unit
lower data set was recorded near Bermuda. Reproduced from Figure 5-9 of the
represents a tenfold change in acidity. IPCC AR4 WGI (IPCC 2007b, p.404).
Other models suggest that continued
emissions of fossil-fuel CO2 could lead to a
pH drop of 0.7 (which would be five times
more acidic than the pre-industrial oceans)
by the year 2300, a level not seen in the
Earths oceans in the last 300 million years.
Since the oceans have not been so acidic in
the last 300 million years, current marine life
is not adapted to such conditions (Caldeira
and Wickett 2003; Raven et al. 2005). How
different organisms in different regions will
react remains uncertain, but a pH drop as
small as 0.2 unit could harm some that are
important to human welfare (Zeebe et al.
2008).

In June 2009, 100 of the worlds science

academies, including the U.S. National Figure 2: Ocean carbonate chemistry. As the oceans absorb CO2, the dissolved CO2
Academy of Sciences, jointly issued a reacts with water (H2O) to form carbonic acid (H2CO3). Carbonic acid is relatively
warning about the serious risks of ocean unstable and breaks down into a bicarbonate ion (HCO3-) and a hydrogen ion (H+).
acidification and called for rapid and large The conversion of CO2 to bicarbonate removes a CO2 molecule from the seawater,
making room for another atmospheric CO2 molecule to dissolve; this property of
reductions in global CO2 emissions to
seawater allows it to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere than an equivalent
address the problem3: volume of freshwater in a lake or a river. Hydrogen ions, the other product of the
conversion process, make seawater more acidic; as the concentration of hydrogen ions
The rapid increase in CO2 emissions increases, the pH decreases. Some of the free hydrogen ions react with carbonate ions
since the industrial revolution has to form more bicarbonate ions, shifting the balance to favor bicarbonate over carbon-
increased the acidity of the worlds ate and reducing the number of carbonate ions in the seawater. Credit BBC News
website.
oceans with potentially profound conse-
quences for marine plants and animals
acidity (Figure 2). Acids are corrosive because hydrogen ions are
especially those that require calcium
extremely reactive. In seawater, hydrogen ions readily attach to
carbonate to grow and survive, and
carbonate ions (CO32-) to form bicarbonate ions (HCO3-). Shell-
other species that rely on these for food.
forming marine organisms use carbonate ions to build shells and
skeletons made of calcium carbonate (CaCO3), a process called
How Does It Work? The Science of Ocean
calcification. Today, the upper levels of the ocean largely
Acidification
contain enough carbonate ions to sustain marine life as we
Seawater has a unique chemistry. The marine carbonate buffer know it, but as acidity increases fewer carbonate ions will be
system controls the pH of the oceans by allowing them to available for sea organisms to calcify. At high enough concentra-
absorb far more CO2 than would be expected based on the tions, hydrogen ions can even react directly with calcium
solubility of CO2 alone (Denman et al. 2007). The ultimate effect carbonate, dissolving existing shells of living organisms.
of adding more CO2 to seawater is to produce an excess of
positively charged hydrogen ions4, which is the source of What Is Happening? Harm to Marine Life
Marine organisms have evolved gradually over millions of
3 http://www.interacademies.net/Object.File/Master/9/075/ years, and many are extremely sensitive to changes in the
Statement_RS1579_IAP_05.09final2.pdf chemical environment, particularly when those changes occur
4 An ion is a molecule or atom that has an overall positive or negative
so quickly that the organisms may not be able to adapt to new
electrical charge. Ions readily react with oppositely charged ions to
and changing conditions. The marine ecosystems threatened by
form neutral (non-charged) substances. This chemical reactivity is why
acidification of seawater is important to the biology and carbon uptake ocean acidification represent much of worlds biodiversity, and
capacity of the oceans. they provide huge benefits to society, including coastal protec-

2
tion, food supply, and aesthetic and economic value through al. 2008). Because of this high CO2 content and the correspon-
recreation and tourism. ding acidity levels, the upwelling waters are corrosive to baby
oysters. Ocean acidification will likely affect other shellfish and
The chemical response of the oceans to increased atmos- commercial fish species in coastal ecosystems (Miller et al.
pheric concentrations of CO2 is well understood, and predic- 2009).
tions of future ocean acidity levels under various emissions
scenarios are well established. What is less certain is how Much more research is needed to understand how various
marine animals and ecosystems will ultimately respond to marine organisms will respond to acidification in nature, but
increased acidity levels. The ability of marine animals (partic- laboratory studies demonstrate that some commercially impor-
ularly mollusks, corals, and plankton) to make structures out tant species such as mussels and oysters are known to be sensi-
of calcium carbonate is directly affected by changes in ocean tive to changes in ocean chemistry, and some species of snails
carbonate chemistry. While much research remains to be and sea urchins have shown reduced shell weights under
done, ocean acidification and other human-induced stressors higher pH (Table 1). These classes of animals may be particu-
(such as coastal development, overfishing, marine pollution, larly vulnerable to ocean acidification during larval stages of
and warmer ocean temperatures) provide great potential for development (Fabry et al. 2008).
widespread changes to marine ecosystems (Fabry et al.
2008). Ocean acidification could even strike at the base of the marine
food chain. Tiny floating organisms called plankton serve as a
The recent decline of the Pacific oyster population in the Pacific critical food source to shellfish and finfish and play a key role in
Northwest appears to be connected to ocean acidification. The regulating the carbon cycle by removing CO2 from surface
decline began in 2005 in Washington State and continued in waters through their biological activities. After they die, the
2006, 2007, and 2008; two of the largest oyster hatcheries report plankton sink to the ocean floor, transporting the carbon they
an 80 percent decline in production rates (Miller et al. 2009). removed from the atmosphere to deep ocean sediments where
Scientists suspect that more acidic seawater is being pumped it is buried. Key shell-forming plankton called foraminifera are
into the coastal areas by north winds, which force the surface very abundant in the oceans and are responsible for much of
waters away from the coast and encourage deep water to well the carbon removal. In the Southern Ocean, shell weights of
up. The deeper waters naturally contain a great deal of CO2, but foraminifera are currently 3035 percent lower than the
human activity has increased the CO2 load. In a 2007 upwelling weights of shells that are thousands of years old found in sea
event, surface waters in a region near the California-Oregon sediments, suggesting they may already be affected by acidifica-
border reached an astonishingly low pH level of 7.75 (Feely et tion (Moy et al. 2009).

Type Species pH CO2 level Shell loss Mortality Effects

Mussel M. edulis 7.1 740 ppm Y Y 25% decrease in calcification rate

Pacific Oyster C. gigas 740 ppm 10% decrease in calcification rate

Giant scallop P. magellanicus <8.0 Decreased fertilization and embryo

development
Clam M. mercenaria 7.0-7.2 Y Y
Crab C. pagurus Reduced thermal tolerance

Crab N. puber 7.98-6.04 Y Disruption of internal chemistry

Sea Urchin S. purpuratus 6.2-7.3 Y Lack of pH regulation

Dogfish S. canicula 7.7 Y
Sea bass D. labrax 7.25 Reduced feeding

Table 1: Results from laboratory experiments showing effects of ocean acidification on selected species. Adapted from Cooley and Doney
(2009) and based on review by Fabry et al. (2008).

3
Coral Reefs as a Case Study
Coral reefs offer a compelling case of the risks associated with ocean acidification. These rainforests of the seas harbor a large
fraction of the planets biodiversity. Reefs are unique ecosystems that provide important services to society, ranging from habitat
for fisheries to coastal protection against tsunamis and storm surges. Reefs support many millions of people around the world
who rely on them for subsistence food gathering, particularly in the developing world, and many more people are supported
through industries such as tourism and fishing (Raven et al. 2005).

Corals have adapted over millions of years to

the chemistry and temperature of the oceans,
and they are extremely vulnerable to changes
in their physical environment. They are
already experiencing damage due to ocean
acidification. A study of 328 coral colonies
from 69 reefs in Australias Great Barrier Reef
demonstrated that these corals are under
increasing stress from both ocean acidifica-
tion and rising ocean temperatures.
Calcification of corals throughout the Great
Barrier Reef has declined 14.2 percent since
1990. Such a large and rapid decline is
unprecedented in coral records dating back
400 years (De'ath, Lough, and Fabricius
2009).
Calcification Rate Relative to Pre-Industrial Levels (%)
The combination of rising ocean tempera-
tures and increased acidity will likely cause
major changes to coral reefs over the next
few decades and beyond (Raven et al. 2005). Figure 3: These world maps show the location and anticipated decline of the
Already, CO2 concentrations have risen worlds coral reefs. Each map represents the ocean water pH for a given atmos-
pheric CO2 stabilization level. The colors indicate the rate of calcification of
enough that calcification rates in corals will coral reefs relative to the pre-industrial rate, when the CO2 concentration was
drop to 60-80 percent of their pre-industrial about 280 ppm. Reproduced from Silverman et al. (2009).
values (Figure 3). Existing reefs may even
begin to dissolve at atmospheric CO2 concentrations as low as 560 ppm, which could be reached by the middle of this century
if emissions are not curbed (Silverman et al. 2009).

Reefs provide a variety of economic benefits, including recreational activities, tourism, coastal protection, habitat for commer-
cial fisheries, and preservation of marine ecosystems. An analysis of potential impacts on coral reefs concluded that annual
losses in 2100 could total $870 billion (Brander et al. 2009). That analysis considered only damages that could readily be
monetized, such as tourism (including activities such as diving and snorkeling) and the harvesting of important commercial fish
species that rely on reefs for habitat.

Coral reefs have other benefits to society that are not easily quantified and are generally excluded from economic analyses.
For instance, reefs aid in coastal protection. A modeling study indicated that healthy reefs within a meter or two of the
ocean surface help reduce tsunami run-up on land by around 50 percent (Kunkel, Hallberg, and Oppenheimer 2006).
Anecdotal reports5 following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and scientific research appear to validate this finding
(Fernando et al. 2005).

5 On Asias Coasts, Progress destroys natural defenses, The Wall Street Journal 12/31/04, reported by A. Brown, http://online.wsj.com/
article/SB110443750029213098.html.

4
What Does the Future Hold?
Projected Impacts on 1,600 Uninfluenced
Top predators
Marine Life 1,400 Calcifiers Predators

Catch Value (millions of $)

As discussed below, ocean acidifica- Lobsters
1,200
tion has the potential to negatively Crabs
Shrimps
impact many forms of marine life. 1,000
Other Calcifiers
Some organisms, like oysters, may
Oysters and Mussels
already be affected. Without signifi- 800
Scallops
cant reductions in CO2 emissions, Clams
600
ocean conditions are expected to
deteriorate further over this century, 400
reaching acidity levels that could be
detrimental to many vital species. 200

0
Observations of marine ecosystems
New England

Hawaii
Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico

Alaska
Pacific & at-sea
affected by natural underwater
volcanic CO2 vents provide clues
into the long-term impacts of acidifi-
cation. Although volcanic vents emit
a tiny amount of CO2 compared to Figure 4: U.S. Commercial fishing revenue for 2007. Total for entire U.S. was $3.97 billion.
human activities, they can drastically Adapted from Cooley and Doney (2009).
alter local marine environments,
unanticipated consequences of ocean acidification. As the pH
providing a natural laboratory for studying the effects of ocean
of the oceans decreases, low frequency sound absorption
acidification. A study of one vent site in the Mediterranean Sea
decreases; the anticipated decrease of 0.3 pH unit would
found that the presence of one species of calcifying algae
decrease sound absorption by 40 percent. Increased noise from
(which helps prevent coral reef erosion in the tropics) was
passing ships, due to critical environmental, economic, and
reduced significantly at acidity levels expected by the end of
military interests, may affect marine mammals, and it is unclear
the century and replaced by non-calcifying algal species more
how they might adapt (Hester et al. 2008).
resilient to higher acidity (Hall-Spencer et al. 2008; Hoegh-
Guldberg et al. 2007). This indicates that acidification may
As discussed previously, certain species of calcifying plankton
benefit highly invasive, non-native algal species. The potential
form the base of the marine food chain and also face detrimen-
for dramatic changes in marine environments illustrates the
tal conditions under increasing acidity levels. As these species
danger of ocean acidification, which will probably bring about
decline or disappear, larger animals that feed on them may be
reductions in biodiversity and radically alter ecosystems (Hall-
affected, potentially leading to ripple effects throughout the
Spencer et al. 2008).
ocean food chain (Fabry et al. 2008). The Southern Ocean,
which surrounds Antarctica, already has the lowest amounts of
Shellfish may be further negatively impacted by increasing
carbonate because it is colder than the other oceans. As early
acidity of surface ocean waters. Experiments on the edible
as the 2030s, seawater there may be able to dissolve the shells
mussel and the Pacific oyster show that these organisms exhibit
of calcifying organisms in the wintertime (McNeil and Matear
a strong decrease in calcification rates as a function of increas-
2008). This could have potentially dramatic consequences for
ing CO2, decreasing pH, and decreasing carbonate concentra-
the marine food chain in this region, since important species of
tions (Table 2; Gazeau et al. 2007). These two species are
plankton go through larval developmental stages in winter.
important to coastal ecosystems and are a large portion of
worldwide seafood production. The predicted decline in calcifi-
cation of mussels and oysters will likely have negative impacts
Why Should We Care? Economic Implications of
on coastal biodiversity and lead to economic losses.
Ocean Acidification
The fundamental chemistry of the oceans is changing, and
Changes to the physical marine environment may also result in the impacts to marine life from these changes will impact

5
human society. The socio-economic value of coral reefs, for
example, has been highlighted (see Coral Reefs as a Case Federal Action on Ocean Acidification
Study). Congress has signaled an interest in studying ocean acidifica-
tion. The Federal Ocean Acidification Research and
In addition to damaging coral reefs, ocean acidification will Monitoring Act of 2009, signed by President Obama on March
affect human society through its impact on fisheries, with the 30, 2009, requires federal agencies to coordinate research and
possibility of declining harvests and loss of fishery revenues monitoring of the acidification of the worlds oceans and to
from shellfish and their predators. According to the United develop a strategic plan to assess impacts and recommend
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,6 global fisheries solutions. The Act also establishes a research program on
provide around 15 percent of the animal protein consumed by ocean acidification at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
humans worldwide (much higher in Africa and Asia), provide Administration (NOAA).
direct and indirect employment for nearly 200 million people,
and generate $85 billion annually. In 2007, the U.S. annual In response to a petition from the Center for Biological
domestic commercial fisheries contributed $34 billion to the Diversity, the Environmental Protection Agency has agreed to
U.S. GNP (Cooley and Doney 2009). Mollusks, such as oysters consider how ocean acidification could be addressed under the
and mussels, contributed 19 percent of the value of the Clean Water Act.7 If the EPA agrees to change the standards for
commercial harvest for 2007, crustaceans about 30 percent, and the pH of seawaterwhich has not been updated since 1976
some 24 percent of revenues came from fish that prey directly in light of the predicted impacts of ocean acidification, regula-
on calcifiers (see Figure 4). Ocean acidification could therefore tion of CO2 emissions under the EPAs current authority to
lead to substantial revenue declines, job losses, and indirect regulate water quality could be one mechanism to mandate a
economic costs (Cooley and Doney 2009). reduction in domestic CO2 emissions.

Economic losses from decreased fishery harvests will be

Climate engineering approaches that do not address the
concentrated in specific regions that rely heavily on such
amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would not alleviate ocean
income. New Bedford, MA is a prime examplethe city has
acidification. One idea is injecting tiny particles into the upper
traditionally relied on fishing income and was the top U.S. port
atmosphere to reflect incoming sunlight and cool the Earths
in terms of mollusk harvest in 2007. A 25 percent loss due to
surface, but if emissions continue unabated, ocean acidification
ocean acidification could lead to direct revenue losses of
would also continue. One way of capturing carbon from power
between $0.5 and $2.2 billion by 2060, and that estimate does
plants (one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions) and keep
not include indirect losses (Cooley and Doney 2009). That
it from being released into the atmosphere is to pump CO2
could be economically devastating to a city like New Bedford,
directly into the deep oceans, but this runs the risk of worsen-
which has already seen a 25 percent drop in seafood products
ing chemical changes to the oceans (Raven et al. 2005). Adding
employment from 19921999 and 20 percent of its residents
limestone to the oceans to counteract the increased acidity
falling below the poverty line in 1999.
levels would not completely reverse the effect and may also
cause severe local environmental degradation, in addition to
What Can We Do About It? Solutions being cost prohibitive and energy intensive on a global scale
The emission of CO2 from human activities is driving funda- (Raven et al. 2005). The only reliable method for reducing the
mental changes in the chemistry of the oceans. These changes impacts of ocean acidification is to reduce and ultimately stop
are essentially irreversibleit will likely take many thousands of CO2 emissions from human activity (Raven et al. 2005).
years for natural processes to remove the excess CO2 that has
been absorbed by the oceans (Raven et al. 2005). Damage from The impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs in particular
ocean acidification could be permanent, and adaptation are further exacerbated by other stressors, including coastal
options for managing the expected changes are still being development, marine pollution, and overfishing. To help reefs
developed. survive acidification, these stressors, also caused by human
activities, must be reduced in combination with policies to
reduce future CO2 emissions.
6 The State of the Worlds Fisheries and Aquaculture (2008), available
at http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0250e/i0250e00.HTM 7 http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/criteria/aqlife/marine-ph.html

6
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