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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) : CE 259: Earthquake Engineering

This document discusses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the probability of exceeding different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels at a site within a given time period. It describes dividing the source-to-site distance and magnitudes into intervals, then calculating the annual exceedance rate of each PGA level by summing the rates across the sources. Graphs of the source distributions and magnitude probabilities are presented. The annual exceedance rates are provided for several PGA levels. Formulas are given to calculate the probability of exceeding a PGA within 50 years and the annual rate corresponding to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

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41 views6 pages

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) : CE 259: Earthquake Engineering

This document discusses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the probability of exceeding different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels at a site within a given time period. It describes dividing the source-to-site distance and magnitudes into intervals, then calculating the annual exceedance rate of each PGA level by summing the rates across the sources. Graphs of the source distributions and magnitude probabilities are presented. The annual exceedance rates are provided for several PGA levels. Formulas are given to calculate the probability of exceeding a PGA within 50 years and the annual rate corresponding to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

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© © All Rights Reserved
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CE 259: Earthquake Engineering

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)


Darell James M. Mendoza
2006-15105, MS Civil Engineering (S)
Submitted to: Prof. Ulpiano Ignacio Jr.
P = Min + [ Max Min ]*R

A
B
C
D

Min
30
90
80
90

Max
70
120
130
130

Mean rate of exceedance of magnitude per source zone

R
0.425
0.533
0.280
0.375

P
47
106
94
105

For the first source, the minimum source to site distance, rmin = 28.67, the maximum distance at
point (-50, 106) from the site, rmax = 117.20. Dividing rmax rmin into ten equal divisions and finding
the number of points lying within each interval, the histogram as shown below is obtained. To
obtain this, the line is divided into 1000 equal segments.

For the second source, rmin = 30.12 and rmax = 125.22. Here the area is divided into 2500 equal
rectangular small areas of 1.6 x 1.1 and the center of the small area is considered as the likely point
of earthquake origin. The histogram of r for the second source is shown below.

For the third source, the source to site distance to (-10, 94) is r = 94.53 and the histogram is shown
below.

For each source zone, the magnitudes of earthquakes mu and mo are divided in ten equal divisions
(

)
)

In this manner, the probabilities of the various magnitudes for each source zone are computed and
are shown in the form of histograms below.

Assuming the uncertainty of predictive law to be log normally distributed, the probability exceeding
an acceleration level for different m and r is,
[

( )

where
()

Thus, the annual rate of exceedance of a peak acceleration by an earthquake of m and r for each
source is,

] [ ] [ ]

In this manner, 100 combinations of m and r for each source 1 can be calculated. The procedure is
repeated for sources 2 and 3.

Summation of all
the site.

thus obtained provides the annual rate of exceedance of certain () at

PGA
0.01
0.05
0.1
0.25
0.3
0.4

Source 1
Source 2
Source 3

0.65828 0.179670493 0.182345272 1.020296


0.07495 0.002670401 0.003662416 0.081283
0.013748 0.000113205 0.000434581 0.014296
0.001096 5.20675E-06 1.5672E-05 0.001117
0.000641 5.03276E-06 9.76512E-06 0.000656
0.000266 5.00081E-06 6.81399E-06 0.000278

A) The annual rate of exceedance for PGA value, g, for the following are
a.

b.

c.

d.

e.

B) The seismic hazard curve

C) The probability that a 0.30g PGA will take place in 50 years


(

D) The probability that at least a 0.30g PGA will take place in 50 years
(

E) The annual rate of exceedance of a PGA that has a 10% probability of exceedance in 50
years
[

)]

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