12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

ARGUMENT

BackingIntoWorldWarIII
Americamustchecktheassertive,
risingpowersofRussiaandChina
[Link]
spheresofinfluenceisarecipefor
disaster.
BY ROBERT KAGAN

FEBRUARY 6, 2017

[Link]
24705 SHARE
increasingambitionandactivismofthetwogreatrevisionistpowers,RussiaandChina.
Theotheristhedecliningcondence,capacity,andwillofthedemocraticworld,and
especiallyoftheUnitedStates,tomaintainthedominantpositionithasheldinthe
[Link],asthedecliningwill
andcapacityoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliestomaintainthepresentworldordermeet
theincreasingdesireandcapacityoftherevisionistpowerstochangeit,wewillreach
themomentatwhichtheexistingordercollapsesandtheworlddescendsintoaphase
ofbrutalanarchy,[Link]
descent,inlivesandtreasure,inlostfreedomsandlosthope,willbestaggering.

[Link] 1/16
 12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Americanstendtotakethefundamental
stabilityoftheinternationalorderforgranted,
Where exactly we are in this classic
evenwhilecomplainingabouttheburdenthe
scenario today, how close the trend
UnitedStatescarriesinpreservingthat
lines are to that intersection point is, as
[Link]
always, impossible to know. Are we
collapse,however,andwhentheydoitisoften
three years away from a global crisis, or
15? unexpected,rapid,andviolent.Thelate18th
centurywasthehighpointofthe
EnlightenmentinEurope,beforethe
[Link]
20thcentury,theworldssmartestmindspredictedanendtogreat-powerconictas
revolutionsincommunicationandtransportationkniteconomiesandpeoplecloser
[Link]
[Link]
exactlyweareinthisclassicscenariotoday,howclosethetrendlinesaretothat
intersectionpointis,asalways,[Link]
globalcrisis,or15?Thatwearesomewhereonthatpath,however,isunmistakable.

AndwhileitistoosoontoknowwhateectDonaldTrumpspresidencywillhaveon
thesetrends,earlysignssuggestthatthenewadministrationismorelikelytohastenus
[Link]
canonlyemboldenVladimirPutin,andthetoughtalkwithChinawilllikelyleadBeijing
[Link]
[Link],heseemsnottohavethought
muchaboutthefutureramicationsofhisrhetoricandhisactions.

[Link]
greatersecurityfromforeignpowersthantheydotodayRussiafromitstraditional
enemiestothewest,Chinafromitstraditionalenemyintheeasttheyaredissatised
[Link]
[Link],thatmeans
dominanceofEastAsia,withcountrieslikeJapan,SouthKorea,andthenationsof
SoutheastAsiabothacquiescingtoBeijingswillandactinginconformitywithChinas
strategic,economic,[Link]
withdrawntotheeasternPacic,[Link],itmeans
hegemonicinuenceinCentralandEasternEuropeandCentralAsia,whichMoscow
hastraditionallyregardedaseitherpartofitsempireorpartofitssphereofinuence.

[Link] 2/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

BothBeijingandMoscowseektoredresswhattheyregardasanunfairdistributionof
power,inuence,andhonorintheU.S.-[Link],both
feelthreatenedbythedominantdemocraticpowersintheinternationalsystemandby
[Link]
obstacletotheirambitions,andthereforebothseektoweakentheAmerican-led
internationalsecurityorderthatstandsinthewayoftheirachievingwhattheyregardas
theirrightfuldestinies.

President Xi
Itwasgoodwhileitlasted
Jinping makes a
speech during Untilfairlyrecently,RussiaandChinahavefacedconsiderable,
the opening
ceremony of thealmostinsuperable,[Link]
G20 Leaders obstaclehasbeenthepowerandcoherenceoftheinternationalorder
Summit as
President [Link]-led
Barack Obama,
left, and systemofpoliticalandmilitaryalliances,especiallyinthetwocritical
President regionsofEuropeandEastAsia,haspresentedChinaandRussiawith
Vladimir Putin,
right, listen on whatDeanAchesononcereferredtoassituationsofstrengththat
Sept. 4, 2016 in
Hangzhou, haverequiredthemtopursuetheirambitionscautiouslyand,since
China. (Photo theendoftheColdWar,todeferseriouseortstodisruptthe
credit: NICOLAS
ASFOURI - internationalsystem.
Pool/Getty
Images) Thesystemhascheckedtheirambitionsinbothpositiveandnegative
[Link],ChinaandRussiahave

[Link] 3/16
 12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

participatedinandforthemostpartbeen
beneciariesoftheopeninternational
During the era of American primacy,
economicsystemtheUnitedStatescreated
China and Russia have participated in
andhelpssustain;solongasthatsystem
and for the most part been beneciaries
functions,theyhavehadmoretogainby
of the open international economic
playinginitthanbychallengingand
system the United States created and
helps sustain; so long as that system [Link]

functions, they have had more to gain aspectsoftheorder,however,haveworkedto

by playing in it than by challenging and [Link]
overturning it. democraticgovernmentinthetwodecades
followingthecollapseofSovietcommunism
posedacontinualthreattotheabilityofrulers
inBeijingandMoscowtomaintaincontrol,andsincetheendoftheColdWartheyhave
regardedeveryadvanceofdemocraticinstitutionsespeciallythegeographical
[Link]
forgoodreason:AutocraticpowerssincethedaysofKlemensvonMetternichhave
[Link]
borders,theglobalfreeowofinformationtheycannotcontrol,thedangerous
connectionbetweenfreemarketcapitalismandpoliticalfreedomallposeathreatto
[Link]
continualchallengetothelegitimacyoftheirruleposedbytheU.S.-supported
democraticorderhasthereforenaturallymadethemhostilebothtothatorderandto
[Link],untilrecently,apreponderanceofdomesticandinternational
[Link]
toworryaboutwhatanunsuccessfulconfrontationwiththeUnitedStatesmightdoto
[Link],asinSyria,
[Link]
[Link],asinUkraine.

READ MORE ThegreatestcheckonChineseandRussianambitionshasbeenthe

militaryandeconomicpoweroftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesinEurope
Trumps Grand
Strategic Train [Link],althoughincreasinglypowerful,hashadtocontemplate
Wreck facingthecombinedmilitaryandeconomicstrengthoftheworlds
CLICK HERE
superpowerandsomeveryformidableregionalpowerslinkedbyalliance

How Trump orcommonstrategicinterestincludingJapan,India,andSouthKorea,
Can Win With
China aswellassmallerbutstillpotentnationslikeVietnamandAustralia.
CLICK HERE
Trump Has

[Link] 4/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Trump Has
[Link]
Already Blown
It united,theseU.S.-ledalliancespresentadauntingchallengetoa
CLICK HERE
revisionistpowerthatcancallonfewalliesofitsownforassistance.

EvenweretheChinesetoscoreanearlyvictoryinaconict,suchasthe
militarysubjectionofTaiwanoranavalbattleintheSouthorEastChinaSea,they
wouldhavetocontendovertimewiththecombinedindustrialproductivecapacitiesof
someoftheworldsrichestandmosttechnologicallyadvancednationsandthelikely
[Link]
Russia,withitsdepletedpopulationandoil-andgas-dependenteconomy,wouldface
anevengreaterchallenge.

Fordecades,thestrongglobalpositionenjoyedbytheUnitedStatesanditsallieshas
[Link]
dependableally,ChineseandRussianleadersfearedthataggressivemoveswould
[Link]
WilliamWohlforthoncedescribedastheinherentstabilityoftheunipolarorder:As
dissatisedregionalpowerssoughttochallengethestatusquo,theiralarmedneighbors
[Link].
TheUnitedStatessteppedup,andRussiaandChinalargelybackeddownorwere
preemptedbeforeactingatall.

Facedwiththeseobstacles,thebestoptionforthetworevisionistgreatpowershas
alwaysbeentohopeforor,ifpossible,engineeraweakeningoftheU.S.-supportedworld
orderfromwithin,eitherbyseparatingtheUnitedStatesfromitsalliesorbyraising
[Link]-bealliesand
partnerstoforgothestrategicprotectionoftheliberalworldorderandseek
accommodationwithitschallengers.

ThepresentsystemhasthereforedependednotonlyonAmericanpowerbuton
[Link]
playitspartastheprincipalguarantoroftheorder,especiallyinthemilitaryand
strategicrealm,buttheordersideologicalandeconomiccorethedemocraciesof
EuropeandEastAsiaandthePacichasalsohadtoremainrelativelyhealthyand
condent.

Inrecentyears,[Link]
[Link],therecrudescenceofnationalism
andtribalism,weakanduncertainpoliticalleadershipandunresponsivemainstream

[Link] 5/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

politicalparties,andaneweraofcommunicationsthatseemstostrengthenratherthan
weakentribalismhavetogetherproducedacrisisofcondencenotonlyinthe
[Link]
elevateduniversalprinciplesofindividualrightsandcommonhumanityoverethnic,
racial,religious,national,[Link]
interdependencetocreatecommoninterestsacrossboundariesandtothe
establishmentofinternationalinstitutionstosmoothdierencesandfacilitate
[Link],thepastdecadehasseentheriseoftribalismand
nationalism,anincreasingfocusontheOtherinallsocieties,andalossofcondencein
government,inthecapitalistsystem,[Link]
[Link]
itallthedarkeraspectsofthehumansoul,including,formany,theperennialhuman
yearningforastrongleadertoprovidermguidanceinatimeofconfusionand
incoherence.

Left: Adolf
TheDarkAges2.0
Hitler and his
staff salute Thiscrisisoftheenlightenmentprojectmayhavebeeninevitable,a
teams during
the opening recurringphenomenonproducedbyinherentawsinbothcapitalism
ceremonies of anddemocracy.Inthe1930s,economiccrisisandrisingnationalism
the XI Olympic
Games on Aug. ledmanytodoubtwhethereitherdemocracyorcapitalismwas
1, 1936 in
Berlin. (Photo [Link]
credit: Getty nocoincidencethatthecrisisofcondenceinliberalism
Images) Right:
Former British [Link],
Prime minister
Winston thequestionwaswhethertheUnitedStatesastheoutsidepower

Churchill,

[Link] 6/16
 12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Churchill,
wouldstepinandsaveorremakeanorderthatBritainandFrance
President
Franklin [Link],thequestioniswhether
Roosevelt and
USSR Secretary theUnitedStatesiswillingtocontinueupholdingtheorderthatit
General of the createdandwhichdependsentirelyonAmericanpowerorwhether
Soviet
Communist Americansarepreparedtotaketheriskiftheyevenunderstandthe
Party Joseph
Stalin pose at riskoflettingtheordercollapseintochaosandconict.
the Conference
of the Allied Thatwillingnesshasbeenindoubtforsometime,wellbeforethe
powers in Yalta,
Crimea, on Feb. electionofTrumpandevenbeforetheelectionofBarackObama.
4, 1945. (Photo
IncreasinglyinthequartercenturyaftertheendoftheColdWar,
credit:
AFP/Getty Americanshavebeenwonderingwhytheybearsuchanunusualand
Images)
outsizedresponsibilityforpreservingglobalorderwhentheirown
interestsarenotalwaysclearlyservedandwhentheUnitedStates
[Link]
whytheUnitedStatestookonthisabnormalroleafterthecalamitoustwoworldwarsof
[Link]
hardlybeexpectedtounderstandthelastingsignicanceofthepolitical,economic,and
[Link]
aboutitinhighschoolandcollegetextbooksobsessedwithnotingtheevilsandfollies
ofAmericanimperialism.Boththecrisesofthersthalfofthe20thcenturyandits
[Link],theAmericanpublicspatience
withthedicultiesandcostsinherentinplayingthatglobalrolehavewornthin.
Whereaspreviousunsuccessfulandcostlywars,inKoreain1950andVietnaminthe
1960sand1970s,andpreviouseconomicdownturns,suchaswiththeenergycrisisand
cripplingstagationofthemid-tolate1970s,didnothavetheeectofturning
Americansagainstglobalinvolvement,theunsuccessfulwarsinIraqandAfghanistan
andthenancialcrisisof2008have.

Obamapursuedanambivalentapproachto
globalinvolvement,buthiscorestrategywas
The Obama administration responded to
[Link]
the George W. Bush administrations
statements,hecritiquedandrepudiated
failures in Iraq and Afghanistan not by
previousAmericanstrategyandreinforceda
restoring American power and inuence
nationalmoodfavoringamuchlessactive
but by further reducing them.
roleintheworldandmuchnarrower
[Link]
[Link]

[Link] 7/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

AfghanistannotbyrestoringAmericanpowerandinuencebutbyfurtherreducing
[Link]
AsiaandthePacic,inpracticethatmeantreducingglobalcommitmentsand
accommodatingrevisionistpowersattheexpenseofalliessecurity.

TheadministrationsearlyattempttoresetrelationswithRussiastrucktherstblow
[Link]
Georgia,[Link]
[Link],asprogramsofmilitarycooperationwithPolandandthe
[Link]
accommodation,moreover,camejustasRussianpolicytowardtheWestnotto
[Link]
elicitingbetterbehaviorbyRussia,[Link],in
2014,theWestsinadequateresponsetotheRussianinvasionofUkraineandseizureof
Crimea,thoughbetterthantheBushadministrationsanemicresponsetotheinvasion
ofGeorgia(EuropeandtheUnitedStatesatleastimposedsanctionsaftertheinvasion
ofUkraine),[Link]
[Link],infact,publiclyacknowledged
RussiasprivilegedpositioninUkraineevenastheUnitedStatesandEuropesoughtto
[Link],theadministrationpracticallyinvited
RussianinterventionthroughWashingtonspassivity,andcertainlydidnothingto
discourageit,thusreinforcingthegrowingimpressionofanAmericainretreatacross
theMiddleEast(animpressioninitiallycreatedbytheunnecessaryandunwise
[Link]).SubsequentRussianactionsthatincreasedthe
refugeeowfromSyriaintoEuropealsobroughtnoAmericanresponse,despitethe
[Link]
sentbytheObamaadministrationwasthatnoneofthiswasreallyAmericasproblem.

InEastAsia,theObamaadministrationundermineditsotherwisecommendableeorts
[Link]-calledpivotprovedtobe
[Link]
inAmericasregionalmilitarypresenceinameaningfulway,andtheadministration
allowedacriticaleconomiccomponent,theTrans-PacicPartnership,todiein
Congress,[Link]
generalperceptionofAmericanretreatandretrenchment,encouragedbothby
presidentialrhetoricandbyadministrationpolicies,[Link]
premature,unnecessary,andstrategicallycostlywithdrawalofAmericantroopsfrom

[Link] 8/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Iraq,followedbytheaccommodatingagreementwithIranonitsnuclearprogram,and
thenbythefailuretoholdthelineonthreatstouseforceagainstSyriaspresident,was
[Link]
strategyshouldbegearedtowardAsia,[Link]
[Link]
administrationerredinimaginingthatitcouldretrenchgloballywhilereassuringallies
inAsiathattheUnitedStatesremainedareliablepartner.

Left: An aerial
Natureabhorsavacuum
photo taken on
Jan. 2 shows a Theeectonthetwogreatrevisionistpowers,meanwhile,hasbeento
Chinese navy
format during [Link],bothpowers
military drills in havebeenmoreactiveinchallengingtheorder,andonereasonhas
the South China
Sea. (Photo beenthegrowingperceptionthattheUnitedStatesislosingboththe
credit:
STR/AFP/Getty [Link]
Images) Right: eectofthewarsinAfghanistanandIraqintheUnitedStates,which
Ukrainian
servicemen hasbeentoweakensupportforAmericanglobalengagementacross
sitting atop
armored theboard,hasprovidedanopening.
personnel
carriers travel Itisamyth,prevalentamongliberaldemocracies,thatrevisionist
near Slavyansk
on July 11, [Link]
2014. (Photo retrenchment,bythislogic,oughttoreducetensionsand
credit: GENYA
SAVILOV/AFP/Getty [Link],[Link]
Images)
moresecurerevisionistpowersfeel,themoreambitioustheyarein
seekingtochangethesystemtotheiradvantagebecausethe
[Link]:Never

[Link] 9/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

inthepasttwocenturieshavetheyenjoyedgreatersecurityfromexternalattackthan
[Link]
pressingwhattheyperceivetobetheirgrowingadvantageinasystemwheretheUnited
Statesnolongerputsupasmuchresistanceasitusedto.

Thetwogreatpowershavediered,sofar,[Link]
beenthemorecareful,cautious,andpatientofthetwo,seekinginuenceprimarily
throughitsgreateconomiccloutandusingitsgrowingmilitarypowerchieyasa
[Link]
forceyet,althoughitsactionsintheSouthChinaSeaaremilitaryinnature,with
[Link],it
wouldbeamistaketoassumeitwillcontinueshowsuchrestraintinthefuture
[Link]
invariablymakeuseofthosecapabilitieswhentheybelievethepossiblegainsoutweigh
[Link]
positionintheregiontobeweakening,oritscapacitytomakegoodonthose
commitmentstobedeclining,thentheywillbemoreinclinedtoattempttousethe
[Link]
closer,thisiswheretherstcrisisislikelytotakeplace.

[Link]
2008andUkrainein2014andinbothcaseshivedosignicantportionsofthosetwo
[Link]
allieswouldhaverespondedtosuchactionsduringthefourdecadesoftheColdWar,
theirrelativelackofaresponsemusthavesentquiteasignaltotheKremlinandto
[Link].
[Link]
[Link]
warfareonaglobalscale.

Morerecently,theRussiangovernmenthasdeployedaweaponthattheChineseeither
lackorhavesofarchosennottodeploytheabilitytointerferedirectlyinWestern
electoralprocesses,bothtoinuencetheiroutcomesandmoregenerallytodiscreditthe
[Link]-wingpopulistpartiesacrossEurope,includingin
France;usesitsmediaoutletstosupportfavoredcandidatesandattackothers;has
disseminatedfakenewstoinuencevoters,mostrecentlyinItalysreferendum;and
[Link]

[Link] 10/16
 12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

pastyear,RussiaforthersttimeemployedthispowerfulweaponagainsttheUnited
States,heavilyinterferingintheAmericanelectoralprocess.

AlthoughRussia,byanymeasure,isthe
weakerofthetwogreatpowers,ithassofar
Although Russia, by any measure, is the
hadmoresuccessthanChinain
weaker of the two great powers, it has
accomplishingitsobjectiveofdividingand
so far had more success than China in
[Link]
accomplishing its objective of dividing
Westerndemocraticpoliticalsystems,its
and disrupting the West.
informationwarfare,anditsroleincreating
increasedrefugeeowsfromSyriainto
EuropehaveallcontributedtothesappingofEuropeanscondenceintheirpolitical
[Link],contrasted
withAmericanpassivity,hasexacerbatedexistingdoubtsaboutAmericanstaying
[Link],untilrecently,hassucceededmostlyindrivingAmerican
alliesclosertotheUnitedStatesoutofconcernforgrowingChinesepowerbutthat
couldchangequickly,especiallyiftheUnitedStatescontinuesonitspresenttrajectory.
Therearesignsthatregionalpowersarealreadyrecalculating:EastAsiancountriesare
contemplatingregionaltradeagreementsthatneednotincludetheUnitedStatesor,in
thecaseofthePhilippines,areactivelycourtingChina,whileanumberofnationsin
EasternandCentralEuropearemovingclosertoRussia,bothstrategicallyand
[Link]
actingaggressively,includingbymilitarymeans,posingextremechallengesto
Americanandglobalsecurityintworegionsatonce.

[Link] 11/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Then-
Thedispensablenation
Republican
presidential AllthiscomesasAmericanscontinuetosignaltheirreluctanceto
candidate
Donald Trump [Link]
speaks during a Trumpwasnottheonlymajorpoliticalgureinthispastelection
rally at Macomb
Community seasontocallforamuchnarrowerdenitionofAmericaninterests
College on
March 4, 2016 andalesseningoftheburdensofAmericangloballeadership.
in Warren, PresidentObamaandBernieSandersbothexpressedaversionof
Michigan.
(Photo credit: [Link]
SCOTT
OLSON/Getty indispensableglobalrolelost,andevenHillaryClintonfelt
Images) compelledtojettisonherearliersupportfortheTrans-Pacic
[Link],thereshouldbedoubtsaboutthe
Americanpublicswillingnesstocontinuesupportingthe
internationalalliancestructure,denyingtherevisionistpowerstheirdesiredspheresof
inuenceandregionalhegemony,andupholdingdemocraticandfreemarketnormsin
theinternationalsystem.

Comingasitdoesatatimeofgrowinggreat-
powercompetition,thisnarrowingdenition
The weakness at the core of the
ofAmericaninterestswilllikelyhastena
democratic world and the shedding by
returntotheinstabilityandclashesof
the United States of global
[Link]
responsibilities have already
democraticworldandthesheddingbythe
encouraged a more aggressive
revisionism by the dissatised powers. UnitedStatesofglobalresponsibilitieshave
alreadyencouragedamoreaggressive
[Link],
inturn,hasfurthersappedthedemocraticworldscondenceandwillingnesstoresist.
Historysuggeststhatthisisadownwardspiralfromwhichitwillbediculttorecover,
absentaratherdramaticshiftofcoursebytheUnitedStates.

Thatshiftmaycometoolate.Itwasinthe1920s,notthe1930s,thatthedemocratic
[Link]
disillusionmentafterWorldWarIledthemtorejectplayingastrategicroleinpreserving
thepeaceinEuropeandAsia,eventhoughAmericawastheonlynationpowerful
[Link]

[Link] 12/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

ofBritainandFranceandencouragedGermanyinEuropeandJapaninAsiatotake
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
1920electionseemedsafeandinnocentatthetime,buttheessentiallyselshpolicies
pursuedbytheworldsstrongestpowerinthefollowingdecadehelpedsetthestagefor
[Link],itwasalreadytoolate
toavoidpayingthehighpriceofglobalconict.

Insuchtimes,ithasalwaysbeentemptingtobelievethatgeopoliticalcompetitioncan
[Link],recently
proposedbyNiallFerguson,thattheworldcanberuledjointlybytheUnitedStates,
Russia,[Link]
attemptedineveryerawhenthedominantpowerorpowersintheinternationalsystem
[Link]
[Link].
Theirsphereofinuenceisneverquitelargeenoughtosatisfytheirprideortheir
[Link],theirveryexpansioncreatesinsecurity,by
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
theireortstogrowstillstronger,theyproducedcoalitionsagainstthem,makingtheir
fearofencirclementaself-fulllingprophecy.

Giveemaninch,theylltakeamile
BEIJING, CHINA

[Link] 13/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

BEIJING, CHINA
Thisisacommontraitofrisingpowerstheiractionsproducethe
- OCTOBER 20:
President of the [Link]
Philippines
Rodrigo Duterte againsttheexistingorder(bothGermanyandJapanconsidered
and Chinese themselvesthehave-notnations),buttheirgrievancescannotbe
President Xi
Jinping review [Link]
the honor guard
as they attend a concessionisnotenough,butthepowersupholdingtheexisting
welcoming orderwillnotmakemorethanmarginalconcessionsunlesstheyare
ceremony at the
Great Hall of the [Link],theaggrievedhave-not
People on
October 20, nationofthe1930s,didnotsatisfyitselfbytakingManchuriain1931.
2016 in Beijing, Germany,theaggrievedvictimofVersailles,didnotsatisfyitselfby
China.
Philippine [Link]
President
Rodrigo Duterte demandedmuchmore,andtheycouldnotpersuadethedemocratic
is on a four-day powerstogivethemwhattheywantedwithoutresortingtowar.
state visit to
China, his rst
since taking Grantingtherevisionist
power in late powersspheresofinuence
Granting
June, with the
the revisionist powers spheres
aim of isnotarecipeforpeaceand
of inuence
improving is not a recipe for peace and
tranquilitybutratheran
tranquility
bilateral
relations.
but rather an invitation to
invitationtoinevitable
(Photo by inevitable conict.
Thomas Peter- [Link]
Pool/Getty
Images) sphereofinuencedoesnot
[Link],to
theBalkans,[Link]
traditionalsphereofinuence,othernationsdonotenjoyautonomyoreven
[Link]
[Link]
that,whenitchooses,itcanclosetheregionototheUnitedStatesnotonly
militarilybutpoliticallyandeconomically,too.

Chinawill,ofcourse,inevitablyexercisegreatswayinitsownregion,[Link]
UnitedStatescannotandshouldnotpreventChinafrombeinganeconomic
[Link]
[Link]
planeseconomic,ideological,andpolitical,[Link]
[Link],Chinacancompete
economicallyandsuccessfullywiththeUnitedStates;Russiacanthriveinthe

[Link] 14/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

internationaleconomicorderupheldbythedemocraticsystem,evenifitisnotitself
democratic.

[Link]
[Link]
Stateshasthecapacityandtheuniquegeographicaladvantagestoprovideglobal
[Link]
[Link],
theyhavebeenandalwayswillbeoflimitedvaluewhenconfrontingrawmilitary
[Link],itisinthemilitaryrealmwhere
[Link],theUnited
Statesretainsthecapacity,alongwithitspowerfulallies,todeterchallengestothe
[Link]-ung
regionsoftheworld,thesystemwillbuckleundertheunrestrainedmilitary
[Link]
commensuratewithAmericascontinuingglobalrole.

FortheUnitedStatestoacceptareturntospheresofinuencewouldnotcalmthe
[Link]
endofthe19thcentury,withcompetinggreatpowersclashingoverinevitably
[Link],disorderedconditionsproduced
thefertilegroundforthetwodestructiveworldwarsofthersthalfofthe20thcentury.
ThecollapseoftheBritish-dominatedworldorderontheoceans,thedisruptionofthe
uneasybalanceofpowerontheEuropeancontinentasapowerfuluniedGermany
tookshape,andtheriseofJapanesepowerinEastAsiaallcontributedtoahighly
competitiveinternationalenvironmentinwhichdissatisedgreatpowerstookthe
opportunitytopursuetheirambitionsintheabsenceofanypowerorgroupofpowersto
[Link]
[Link].S.-ledworldorderinthe70
yearssincetheendofWorldWarIIthatthiskindofcompetitionhasbeenheldincheck
[Link]
weretodestroywhattheycreatedandnotbecauseitwasnolongerpossibleto
sustainbutsimplybecausetheychosetostoptrying.

RobertKaganisseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandtheauthorofTheWorld
AmericaMade.

[Link] 15/16
12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

Likethisarticle?Readanunlimitedamountofarticles,plusaccesstoourentire46-year
printedarchive,theFPApp,andtheFPInsightsToolwhenyousubscribetoFP
Premiumfor20%o!

[Link] 16/16