Weekly Call: Research Analysts Research Analysts
Weekly Call: Research Analysts Research Analysts
p 10,, 2017
Weekly Call
Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah [email protected]
Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected]
Dipesh Dagha [email protected]
Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]
Vinayak Parmar [email protected]
Weekly Calls – At Your Service
Deal Team
Code UCOBAN
CMP | 37.20
Stop-loss | 34.90
2
Trend Scanner
Deal Team – At Your Service
Positive Trends Candlestick Pattern
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations
Maruti 6,259.4 5,969.0 5,759.0 46.40 Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP
Engineers India 150.1 148.0 144.0 51.80 Suven Engulfing 181.7 Eros Media Engulfing 248.6
IOC 397.4 368.0 347.0 61.40 Simplex Infrastructures Engulfing 370.1 JP Associates Engulfing 12.9
Titan Company 485.4 434.0 410.0 43.00 BPCL Continuation 675.4 Dish Tv Continuation 99.8
M&M Finance Continuation 335.4 Lupin Continuation 1410.1
Titan Company Continuation 485.4 United Spirits Continuation 2024.1
Maruti Continuation 6259.4 Mindtree Continuation 446.7
Negative Trends IOC Continuation 397.4
Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
United Spirits 2,024.1 2,181.0 2,177.0 35.40
Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report
3
Market Activity
Gl b l Markets
Global M k ts Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance
3,286.6 24,267.3 INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3M
China Hong Kong
2.0% 0.6% Sensex 29706.61 0.3 3.1 11.3
7,349.4 5,135.3 Nifty 9198.30 0.3 3.3 12.1
UK France
0.4% 0.2% Auto 22235.34 1.0 2.2 8.4
20,656.1 64,593.1 Banking 24422.72 0.0 4.8 18.6
US Brazil Capital goods 17255 98
17255.98 49
4.9 62
6.2 20 4
20.4
0.0% -0.6%
12,225.1 18,664.6 Cons durables 15522.64 1.7 6.7 34.1
Germany Japan FMCG 9184.81 -0.9 5.7 16.3
-0.7% -1.3%
Healthcare 15215.55 -0.6 -0.7 4.9
IT 10147.65 -2.1 0.2 3.3
Metal 11852.53 0.4 -1.9 15.5
Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields Oil & ggas 13959.96 2.9 -2.9 9.6
64.28 101.27 Power 2297.36 1.0 3.0 15.3
Rupee (|) Dollar Index
1.7% 2.0% Realty 1684.4 5.3 6.8 27.4
BSE 500 12712.39 0.6 3.5 14.2
1.06 1.24
Euro British Pound BSE midcap 14233.16 1.0 3.2 18.9
-2.4% -1.1%
BSE small cap 14681.42 1.7 4.7 19.0
111.49 1.01
Japanese Yen Swiss Franc
1 0%
1.0% 2 2%
2.2%
Gold/ounce
1,252.65
Copper (tonne)
5,798.75 Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
-0.3% 0.4%
9.4 7.0 6.7 6.5
55.25 18.0 4.1
Brent Crude/barrel Silver (ounce)
-3.2 -3.5 -4.0 -4.2
9.0% 0.6% -0.6
6.68 2.39 10 6
-10.6
I di 10 year
India US 10 Year
Y
-15 bps 2.4 bps
-20.6
0.23 0.05
SUNPHARMA
RELIANCE
MARUTI
INFRATEL
IBULHSGFIN
INFY
LT
TECHM
EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year
-17.5 bps -0.1 bps
4
Market Activity
Deal Team – At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
20,000 30000.00
10,000 25000.00
122612
100443
300906
22368
90071
15521
47777
99900
45555
84416
3713
81006
99002
65447
25443
49880
11333
6998
248
-23
0 20000.00
-86
-8176
-273
-4306
-1177
-18244
-10,000 15000.00
Aug'16
Nov'16
Apr'16
Mar'17
Apr'17
Feb'17
Jan'17
JJuly'16
Sep'16
Dec'16
JJune'16
Oct'16
M
M
A
Months
26000
40% 24500
23000
21500
20%
53%
47%
46%
54%
51%
49%
50%
50%
47%
53%
56%
44%
48%
52%
54%
46%
60%
40%
20000
18500
0% 17000
10-Feb-17 17-Feb-17 24-Feb-17 3-Mar-17 10-Mar-17 17-Mar-17 24-Mar-17 31-Mar-17 7-Apr-17
Week Ended
5
Previous Week’s Performance
Deal Team – At Your Service
Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment
03-Apr-17 City union bank Cash Buy 147-149 160.00 141.90 - Not Initiated
03-Apr-17 Syndicate Bank Cash Buy 70.50 77.00 66.10 0.0 Closed at cost
03-Apr-17 VRL Logistics Cash Buy 305-308 332.00 292.00 - Not Initiated
F&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (April 10 – 13, 2017)
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
SENSEX 29706.61 29580.90 29437.85 29294.85 29750.40 29835.15 29919.90 -ve
BANK NIFTY FUTURE 21442.15 21325.55 21160.10 20994.70 21484.90 21564.55 21644.20 -ve
NIFTY FUTURE 9211 45
9211.45 9176 30
9176.30 9132 35
9132.35 9088 40
9088.40 9223 50
9223.50 9247 10
9247.10 9270 75
9270.75 -ve
BANK NIFTY 21431.15 21319.00 21139.90 20960.80 21470.15 21545.75 21621.30 -ve
NIFTY 9198.30 9166.30 9120.95 9075.60 9209.20 9230.65 9252.10 -ve
ACC 1468.10 1449.20 1432.60 1416.05 1470.10 1480.55 1491.00 -ve
ADANI PORT 347.15 337.50 331.05 324.55 347.75 352.90 358.00 -ve
AMBUJA CEMENT 242.45 241.90 239.00 236.15 247.65 250.25 252.90 +ve
ASIAN PAINTS 1082.95 1075.65 1068.15 1058.25 1090.60 1098.10 1108.00 Neutral
AUROBINDO PHARMA 658.05 646.75 640.90 635.00 662.45 670.30 678.15 -ve
AXIS BANK 504.20 497.75 491.15 483.65 510.90 517.45 524.95 Neutral
BAJAJ AUTO 2830.45 2820.40 2797.60 2774.80 2866.00 2880.50 2894.95 +ve
BOB 168.65 165.10 162.95 160.80 169.90 172.30 174.65 -ve
BPCL 675 35
675.35 668 70
668.70 656 60
656.60 644 55
644.55 692 85
692.85 697 70
697.70 702 60
702.60 +ve
BHARTI AIRTEL 344.70 340.70 337.15 332.85 347.80 351.35 355.65 Neutral
BHEL 174.80 173.90 169.50 165.10 182.65 184.75 186.90 +ve
BHARTI INFRATEL 347.60 343.00 335.50 328.00 357.95 366.30 374.70 +ve
BOSCH 22826.80 22684.55 22534.55 22316.05 22984.55 23134.55 23353.05 Neutral
CIPLA 590.00 582.15 579.40 576.70 591.50 596.20 600.90 -ve
6
F&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (April 10 – 13, 2017)
COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend
COAL INDIA 283.90 277.05 274.85 272.65 285.40 289.60 293.75 -ve
DR.REDDY'S LAB. 2661.35 2638.05 2602.30 2591.55 2709.50 2745.20 2755.95 Neutral
EICHER MOTORS 25806.85 25591.75 25426.05 24977.30 25923.15 26088.85 26537.55 Neutral
GAIL 386.65 385.95 382.20 378.45 393.45 397.30 401.15 +ve
GRASIM 1057.10 1042.15 1034.90 1027.65 1058.60 1066.80 1075.05 -ve
HCL TECH 849.30 837.70 826.95 816.15 853.65 861.60 869.55 -ve
HDFC 1484.75 1454.95 1435.95 1416.95 1490.40 1508.15 1525.90 -ve
HERO MOTO 3215.30 3194.35 3171.85 3117.85 3239.40 3261.90 3315.90 Neutral
HINDALCO 193.50 190.15 188.10 186.00 194.10 196.05 198.00 -ve
HIND. UNILEVER 924.50 923.30 915.05 906.80 939.85 947.00 954.20 +ve
IDEA CELLULAR 87.60 87.40 86.15 84.90 89.90 91.30 92.70 +ve
INDUSIND BANK 1412.20 1402.90 1394.20 1381.95 1420.35 1429.10 1441.35 Neutral
INFOSYS 981.55 962.90 954.40 945.95 989.60 1002.95 1016.35 -ve
ITC 272.65 267.85 265.75 263.65 274.20 277.35 280.55 -ve
KOTAK MAH.BANK 873.10 862.90 856.05 849.20 876.65 883.55 890.40 -ve
L&T 1685.50 1673.10 1637.25 1601.40 1744.75 1759.10 1773.45 +ve
LUPIN 1410.05 1391.75 1380.05 1368.40 1417.25 1429.95 1442.70 -ve
M&M 1275.55 1261.20 1252.20 1243.20 1279.30 1288.40 1297.45 -ve
MARUTI SUZUKI 6259.35 6237.75 6155.50 6073.25 6402.25 6435.70 6469.20 +ve
NTPC 168.25 167.70 166.40 165.10 170.35 171.40 172.40 +ve
ONGC 186.40 185.55 184.60 182.35 187.40 188.30 190.55 Neutral
POWER GRID 195.00 192.25 190.70 189.15 195.40 197.00 198.55 -ve
RELIANCE 1406.60 1402.05 1374.10 1346.15 1458.00 1488.10 1518.20 +ve
SBI 289.45 285.15 280.20 275.25 290.70 293.50 296.25 -ve
SUN PHARMA 665.95 653.20 648.40 643.55 670.45 679.10 687.70 -ve
TATA MOTOR DVR 284.35 282.25 280.30 277.30 286.15 288.05 291.10 Neutral
TATA MOTORS 468.30 463.10 459.70 456.25 470.05 473.55 477.00 -ve
TATA POWER 87.50 85.55 84.15 82.75 87.80 88.95 90.05 -ve
TCS 2429.05 2413.20 2402.45 2387.70 2434.60 2445.30 2460.05 Neutral
TECH MAHINDRA 443.20 436.65 430.00 423.35 445.50 449.95 454.35 -ve
TATA STEEL 493.20 487.75 481.90 477.20 499.55 505.45 510.10 Neutral
ULTRATECH CEMENT 4081.00 4045.85 4010.40 3973.75 4116.75 4152.15 4188.85 Neutral
WIPRO 511.90 507.45 503.85 499.70 514.65 518.25 522.35 Neutral
YES BANK 1556.55 1545.95 1535.75 1526.35 1566.40 1576.65 1586.00 Neutral
ZEE 547.60 545.40 538.45 531.50 559.30 566.55 573.85 +ve
7
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Deal Team – At Your Service
Date Event
India
9-Apr Local Car Sales
10-Apr Exports and Imports
12-Apr CPI YoY and Industrial Production YoY
Japan
10-Apr BoP Current Account Balance, Trade Balance
11-Apr Machine Tool Orders, Machine Orders, PPI
11-Apr Japan Bond Buying Data
13-Apr Money Stock M2 and M3 YoY
US
8-Apr Consumer Credit
11-Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism
12-Apr MBA Mortgage Applications, Import Price Index
12-Apr Monthly Budget Statement
13-Apr PPI Final Demand, PPI Food and Energy, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
Euro Zone
11-Apr Industrial Production SA
11-Apr Industrial Production WDA
11-Apr ZEW Survey Expectations
UK
11-Apr
11 Apr CPI MoM and YoY, Retail Price Index, PPI Output
12-Apr Claimant Count Rate, Jobless Claims Change
12-Apr ILO Unemployment Rate
8
Notes
Deal Team – At Your Service
• The
Th weekly
kl call
ll recommendation
d i are iin the
h cash
h segment only
l
•Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3
3-5%
5% and trail stop loss on remaining position to the
entry point
• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
• Please
Pl avoid
id allocating
ll ti the
th entire
ti trading
t di corpus to
t a single
i l stock
t k or a single
i l product
d t segmentt
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation
9
Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation
Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Cash 10% -
100%
10
Candlesticks Glossary:
Deal Team – At Your Service
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
session’ss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over
the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend
11
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
13
Disclaimer
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been
mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities
Sec ities or
o its associates might
ight have
ha e received
ecei ed any
a co pe satio from
compensation f o the companies
co pa ies mentioned
e tio ed herein
he ei during
d i g the period
pe iod preceding
p ecedi g
twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance,
investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI
Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third
party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have
any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these
recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the
company/companies
/ i mentioned
i d herein
h i as off theh last
l d off the
day h month h preceding
di the
h publication
bli i off these
h research
h recommendations.
d i
Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial
interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein.
It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned
herein.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein.herein
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis
activities.
This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this
document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
14