Faculty of Engineering
Petroleum Engineering & Gas Technology Department
Semester Two: 2017/2018
Petroleum Economics & Legislations
Tutorial one
Reserve definition
❖Reserve: is the amount of petroleum that can be produced with
current technology under existing economic conditions.
❖Or Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated
to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a
given date forward.
Reserve Classification
Reserve classification
Proved Probable Possible
Probable reserves are those Possible reserves are those
Proved reserves are those reserves that
can be estimated with a high degree of reserves that can be estimated reserves that can be estimated
certainty, which for purposes of which for purposes of reserves which for purposes of reserves
reserves classification means that there classification means that there classification means that there
is generally a 90 percent or greater is generally between 50-90 is generally between 10-50
probability that at least the estimated percent probability that the percent probability that the
quantity will be recovered. estimated quantity will be estimated quantity will be
recovered. recovered.
Reserve Classification
Question 1
❖There are 950 MM stb ( million stock tank barrels) of oil initially in
place in a reservoir. It is estimated that 500 MM stb can be
produced. Already 100 MM stb have been produced. In the boxes
below, identify the correct answer.
Solution : Question 1
❖There are 950 MM stb ( million stock tank barrels) of oil initially in
place in a reservoir. It is estimated that 500 MM stb can be
produced. Already 100 MM stb have been produced. In the boxes
below, identify the correct answer.
Question 2
❖ Before starting production it was estimated that there was a 90% chance of
producing at least 100 MM stb, 50% chance of producing 500 MM stb and
10% chance of producing 700MM stb. That is we are sure we can produce at
least 100MM stb, and we will probably produce as much as 500 MM stb, and
we will possibly produce as much as 700 MM stb.
❖ Tick the correct answers.
Solution : Question 2
❖Proved : 100 MM stb
❖Probable : 500 - 100 = 400 MM stb
❖Possible : 700 - 500 = 200 MM stb
❖Proved : 100 MM stb
❖Proved & Possible 500 MM stb
❖Proved & Probable & Possible : 700 MM stb
Question 3
❖What is wrong with the following definition?
Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to
be recovered from a petroleum accumulation.
Solution: Question 3
❖Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated
to be commercially recovered from a petroleum accumulation.
❖Clearly economics is a very important aspect of the definition.
Decline curve analysis and production forecasting
❖Decline curve analysis (DCA) is a graphical procedure used for
analyzing declining production rates and forecasting future
performance of oil and gas wells.
❖Decline Curve analysis Uses are :
✓ Estimating reserves.
✓ Predicting the future production.
✓ Estimating production life
✓ To determine the technical and economic success of our efforts
Decline Curve analysis
❖The conditions must be considered in production-decline-curve
analysis:
1)The production must have been stable over the period being
analyzed
•Flowing well (constant choke size)
•Pumping well (constant fluid level)
2) Stable reservoir conditions
•The producing mechanism is not altered
Decline Curve analysis
❖Data Required to draw these curves are:
✓ Sufficient history of production rate time behavior.
✓ Cumulative production over relevant time period.
✓ Economic limit (the lowest economic rate).
❖Production Decline models
✓ Exponential Decline Model
✓ Harmonic Decline Model
✓ Hyperbolic Decline Model
Production Decline models
Model Identifications
❖Exponential Decline
•If the plot of log(q)versus time shows a straight line.
•If the plot of q versus Gp shows a straight line.
❖Harmonic Decline
•If the plot of log(q)versus log(t)shows a straight line.
•If the plot of Gp versus log(q)shows a straight line.
❖Hyperbolic Decline
•If no straight line is seen in these plots.
Model Identifications
Exponential Decline
❖ Commonly used for production decline analysis of solution-gas-drive
reservoirs.
❖ In practice, the following form of this equation is used:
✓ Gp(t) = cumulative gas production at time t, MMscf
✓ qi = initial gas flow rate at time t = 0, MMscf/unit time
✓ t = time, unit time
✓ qt = gas flow rate at time t, MMscf/unit time
✓ Di = nominal (initial) decline rate, 1/unit time
Exponential Decline
Question 4
❖Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day
during a one-month period,
use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasts:
a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months
b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year
c) Project the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.
Solution : Question 4
b) The amount of oil produced during the first year
c) Yearly production for the next 5 years:
Question 5
Given the following production history
• Investigate the type of decline.
• Calculate reserves from start of production to economics limit of 25 MMscf/month.
• When will the economic limit be reached?
• Predict future rate and cumulative production until the economic limit is reached
Solution: Question 5
1- Decline model is Exponential
Time , month
Solution: Question 5 (cont)
