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Course Notes - Basic Probability

This document provides an introduction to key concepts in probability that are important for statistics and data science. It defines probability as the likelihood of an event occurring, and explains how to calculate it using the probability formula. It also discusses expected values, frequency distributions, complements, and how understanding these probability concepts is crucial for mastering machine learning and data analysis.

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Anshul
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191 views

Course Notes - Basic Probability

This document provides an introduction to key concepts in probability that are important for statistics and data science. It defines probability as the likelihood of an event occurring, and explains how to calculate it using the probability formula. It also discusses expected values, frequency distributions, complements, and how understanding these probability concepts is crucial for mastering machine learning and data analysis.

Uploaded by

Anshul
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY FOR STATISTICS AND DATA

SCIENCE
Introduction to Probability: Cheat Sheet
Probability Formula | Sample Space | Expected Values | Complements
Words of welcome

ML
Dataset
Insight

You are here because you want to comprehend the basics of probability before you can dive into the world of statistics
and machine learning. Understanding the driving forces behind key statistical features is crucial to reaching your goal of
mastering data science. This way you will be able to extract important insight when analysing data through supervised
machine learning methods like regressions, but also fathom the outputs unsupervised or assisted ML give you.

Bayesian Inference is a key component heavily used in many fields of mathematics to succinctly express complicated
statements. Through Bayesian Notation we can convey the relationships between elements, sets and events.
Understanding these new concepts will aid you in interpreting the mathematical intuition behind sophisticated data
analytics methods.

Distributions are the main way we lie to classify sets of data. If a dataset complies with certain characteristics, we can
usually attribute the likelihood of its values to a specific distribution. Since many of these distributions have elegant
relationships between certain outcomes and their probabilities of occurring, knowing key features of our data is
extremely convenient and useful.
What is probability?

Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. This event can be pretty much anything – getting heads, rolling a 4 or even
bench pressing 225lbs. We measure probability with numeric values between 0 and 1, because we like to compare the relative
likelihood of events. Observe the general probability formula.

𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
P(X)=
𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑆𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

Probability Formula:
• The Probability of event X occurring equals the number of preferred outcomes over the number of outcomes in the
sample space.
• Preferred outcomes are the outcomes we want to occur or the outcomes we are interested in. We also call refer to such
outcomes as “Favorable”.
• Sample space refers to all possible outcomes that can occur. Its “size” indicates the amount of elements in it.

If two events are independent:


The probability of them occurring simultaneously equals the product of them occurring on their own.
P(A ) = P(A) . P( )
Expected Values
Trial – Observing an event occur and recording the outcome.
Experiment – A collection of one or multiple trials.
Experimental Probability – The probability we assign an event, based on an experiment we conduct.
Expected value – the specific outcome we expect to occur when we run an experiment.

Example: Trial Example: Experiment


Flipping a coin and recording the outcome. Flipping a coin 20 times and recording the 20 individual outcomes.

In this instance, the experimental probability for getting heads would equal the number of heads we record over the course of
the 20 outcomes, over 20 (the total number of trials).

The expected value can be numerical, Boolean, categorical or other, depending on the type of the event we are interested in. For
instance, the expected value of the trial would be the more likely of the two outcomes, whereas the expected value of the experiment
will be the number of time we expect to get either heads or tails after the 20 trials.

Expected value for categorical variables. Expected value for numeric variables.
𝑛

𝐸 𝑋 =𝑛×𝑝 𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥𝑖 × 𝑝𝑖
𝑖=1
Probability Frequency Distribution

What is a probability frequency distribution?:


A collection of the probabilities for each possible outcome of an
event.

Why do we need frequency distributions?:


We need the probability frequency distribution to try and predict
future events when the expected value is unattainable.

What is a frequency?:
Frequency is the number of times a given value or outcome
appears in the sample space.

What is a frequency distribution table?:


The frequency distribution table is a table matching each distinct
outcome in the sample space to its associated frequency.

How do we obtain the probability frequency distribution


from the frequency distribution table?:
By dividing every frequency by the size of the sample space.
(Think about the “favoured over all” formula.)
Complements

The complement of an event is everything an event is not. We denote the complement of an event with an apostrophe.

A’ = Not A
complement original event
opposite

Characteristics of complements:
• Can never occur simultaneously.
• Add up to the sample space. (A + A’ = Sample space)
• Their probabilities add up to 1. (P(A) + P(A’) = 1)
• The complement of a complement is the original event. ((A’)’ = A)
Example:
• Assume event A represents drawing a spade, so P(A) = 0.25.
• Then, A’ represents not drawing a spade, so drawing a club, a diamond or a heart. P(A’) = 1 – P(A), so P(A’) = 0.75.

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