Financial Model Dashboard

Key Details

Name of the Company

Last Balance Sheet Date
Model Currency

Trading Statistics

Last Closing Price

52 Week High
52 Week Low
Shares Outstanding

Scenarios

Revenue Buildup Scenario 3

Scenario I - Worst Case
Scenario II - Base Case
Scnerario III - Management Case

Forecasting Method 1

Capex Scenario 1
Regular Capex - Own Stores
Specific Capex - New Mfg. Facility

Loans & Interest Rates

Prime Lending Rate

Interest Rates
ECI Bank - Term Loan
EDFC Bank - WC Loan
Promoter Loan
Working Capital Financing Limit
% of Capital funded by term loan
Term Loan Repayment period
Interest income on ST investments
Capex & Depreciation

Specific Capex
Routine Capex
Depreciation Method (as per Companies Act, 1956) 1
SLM (Life)
WDV
Income Tax Act, 1961
WDV Rate
Additional Depreciation

Others & P / L related

Corporate Tax Rate

MAT Rate
Minimum Cash as a % of Sales
 Time Machine Watch Co. Ltd.
3990300%
INR crore

Rs.435
Rs.1,018
Rs.231
4.46 crore

Scnerario III - Management Case

Last 3 years average

Regular Capex - Own Stores

11%

11%
12%

60%
70%
6 years
4%
Rs.1,000crore
2%
SLM (Life)
10 years
12%

40%
20%

31%
18.54%
0 Historicals
Financial Model 2007A 2008A
Profit & Loss Account

P&L Related Assumptions

YoY Growth in Net Revenue 24.8% 28.7%

Scenario I - Worst Case
Decrease p.a.
Scenario II - Base Case
Scneraio III - Management Case
Increase p.a.
VAT as % of Net Revenue 3.4% 2.9%

Materials Consumed as % of Net Revenue 70.3% 69.1%

Manufacturing Expenses as % of Net Revenue 7.2% 7.6%

SG&A as a % of Net Revenue 8.3% 8.3%

Royalty as a % of Net Revenue 1.2% 1.2%

Other Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue 3.1% 2.8%

Other Operating Expenses as a % of SG & A 37.3% 33.9%
Other Operating Expenses - Growth % - 16.4%

Effective Tax Rate 24.8% 24.9%

Dividends as % of Net Profits 14.3% 8.9%

Dividend as a % of Share Capital (DPS) 17.9% 17.9%
Dividend as a % of FCFF

Working Capital Related Assumptions

Inventory T/O 145 days 124 days

Debtors T/O 99 days 96 days
Creditors T/O 179 days 159 days
Provisions as a % of Gross Revenue 1.6% 1.8%

Capex Related Assumptions

Capex as % of Net Revenue - Scenario I 4%

Capex as % of Net Revenue - Scenario II
Specific Capex of 1000 crore (in % terms)
Specific Capex (in absolute terms)
Historicals
2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

45.1% Err:502 31.7% 36.7% 41.7% 46.7% 51.7%

26.7% 22.7% 18.7% 14.7% 10.7% 6.7%
4.0%
26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7%
26.7% 31.7% 36.7% 41.7% 46.7% 51.7%
5.0%
2.2% Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

68.0% Err:502 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1%

8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

8.2% Err:502 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3%

1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

3.1% Err:502 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

38.0% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4%
61.6% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0%

22.4% Err:502 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%

7.7% Err:502 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3%

22.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4%

156 days Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

78 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days
118 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days
2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

7% Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
30% 70%
0 0
0 Historicals
Financial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Calcuations

Capex

Routine Capex
Specific Capex

Total Capex

Depreciation as per Companies Act

SLM
Gross Block (as on 2010) 497.3
Accumulated Depreciation (264.3)
Existing Assets
Capex in FY 2010
Capex in FY 2011
Capex in FY 2012
Capex in FY 2013
Capex in FY 2014
Capex in FY 2015
Capex in FY 2016

Depreciation as per IT Act

Term Loan related calculations

Working Capital related calculations

Promoter Loan

Short Term Investments

ls
2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B 2015B

Err:502
0 Historicals
Financial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Profit & Loss Account

Revenues
Gross Revenues 1,156.8 1,481.3 2,136.5
Less: VAT (37.6) (41.2) (46.2)
Net Revenues 896.8 1,119.2 1,440.1 2,090.3
Other Income -- 0.0 0.0
Total Income 1,119.2 1,440.1 2,090.3

Materials Consumed (786.8) (995.7) (1,420.6)

Manufacturing Expenses (80.8) (110.1) (167.1)
Cost of Goods Sold (867.6) (1,105.8) (1,587.7)

Gross Profit 251.6 334.3 502.6

Margin % 0.2 23% 24%
Growth % NA 33% 50%

Selling, General & Admin Exps (93.0) (119.1) (171.7)

Royalty Expenses (13.5) (17.3) (25.0)
Other Operating Expenses (34.7) (40.4) (65.3)
Total Operating Expenses (141.2) (176.8) (262.0)

EBITDA 110.4 157.5 240.6

Margin % 0.1 11% 12%
Growth % NA 43% 53%

Depreciation (16.6) (21.2) (30.6)

EBIT 93.8 136.3 210.0

Margin % 0.1 9% 10%
Growth % NA 45% 54%

Interest Expense (20.5) (20.5) (48.5)

Interest Income 1.2 3.7 5.6

PBT 74.5 119.5 167.1

Margin % 0.1 8% 8%
Growth % NA 60% 40%

Income Tax (Current Tax Only) (18.5) (29.7) (37.4)

PAT 56.0 89.8 129.7

Dividends (8.0) (8.0) (10.0)

Deferred Tax - (6.1) 6.3
Taxes for earlier years (11.0) (27.6) 9.1
Exceptional Items - 12.0 (23.3)
Appropriations (17.7) (22.5) (48.6)
(36.7) (52.2) (66.5)

PAT : Post Appropriations 19.3 37.6 63.2

P&L brought forward 50.0 69.3 106.9

PAT : Carried Forward 69.3 106.9 170.1

ls
2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B 2015B

Err:502 Err:502 4,637.8 6,573.5 9,645.6 14,635.8

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Err:502 Err:502 4,771.9 6,763.5 9,924.5 15,059.0

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 (3,662.6) (5,191.3) (7,617.4) (11,558.4)

Err:502 811.3 1,109.3 1,572.3 2,307.1 3,500.6

Err:502 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Err:502 32% 37% 42% 47% 52%

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 (435.4) (595.3) (843.8) (1,238.2) (1,878.7)

Err:502 375.9 514.0 728.5 1,068.9 1,621.9

Err:502 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Err:502 32% 37% 42% 47% 52%
0 Historicals
Financial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Balance Sheet

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Shareholders Funds
Share Capital 44.6 44.6 44.6
Securities Premium 100.0 100.0 100.0
General Reserve 159.6 182.1 230.7
P&L Account 69.3 106.9 170.1

Loan Funds
ECI Bank Term Loan -- -- 100.0
EDFC Security WC Loan 180.0 254.1 384.0

Unsecured Loans - Promoter Loans 24.6 24.6 34.6

Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 17.7 23.8 17.4

TOTAL 595.8 736.1 1,081.4

APPLICACTION OF FUNDS

Fixed Assets
Gross Block (at cost) 350 410.2 497.3
Less : Accumulated Depreciation (212.5) (233.7) (264.3)
Net Block 137.5 176.5 233.0

Investments 25.0 27.0 58.9

Current assets, loans and advances

Inventories 345.2 374.4 677.5
Sundry Debtors 312.6 390.1 458.9
Loans & Advances 18.0 35.6 48.3
Cash & Bank Balances 20.7 42.3 86.9
Short term investments 140.0 151.3 31.2

Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions

Creditors (385.0) (435.1) (458.6)
Provisions (18.9) (26.7) (55.4)

Net Current Assets 432.6 531.9 788.8

Miscellaneous Expenditure -- -- --

TOTAL 595.1 735.4 1,080.7

Balance Sheet Difference 0.7 0.7 0.7

als
2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B
0 Historicals
Financial Model 2007A 2008A
Cash Flow Statement

OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Profit for the year 89.8
Add: Depreciation 21.2
Net Interest Expense 16.8
127.8

Changes in Working Capital

(Increase) / Decrease in Inventory (29.2)
(Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Debtors (77.5)
(Increase) / Decrease in Loans & Advances (17.6)
(Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Creditors 50.1
(Increase) / Decrease in Provisions 7.8
(66.4)

Net Cash Flow from Operational Activties (Normalized) 61.4

Exceptional Items (15.6)

Net Cash Flow from Operational Activties (Reported) 45.8

INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
Capex (60.2)
Proceeds from Sale of Assets
(Increase) / Sale of LT Investments (2.0)
Interest Income 3.7

Net Cash Flow from Investment Activities (58.5)

FINANCING ACTIVITIES
New issue of Equity --
New loans drawn 74.1
Repayment of term loans --
Interest Expense (20.5)
Dividends Paid (8.0)

Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities 45.6

Net Cash during the year 32.9

Opening Cash 20.7

(Increase) / Decrease in ST Investments -- (11.3)

Increase / (Decrease) in Promoted Loans -- --

Closing Cash 42.3

Free Cash Flow to Equity 39.2

Historicals
2009A 2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B

129.7
30.6
42.9
203.2

(303.1)
(68.8)
(12.7)
23.5
28.7
(332.4)

(129.2)

9.1

(120.1)

(152.5)
42.0
(31.9)
5.6

(136.8)

--
229.9
--
(48.5)
(10.0)

171.4
(85.5)

42.3

120.1
10.0

86.9

(91.2)
Row Labels
Admin
East
Amit
###
South
Tunny
###
West
Mohan
###
Finance
East
Munny
###
South
Sohan
###
West
anuRadha
###
rosy
###
HR
East
Ram
###
West
sumit
###
Sunny
###
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
Grand Total
 Sr. No. First Name
Last Name Region Dept DOJ Qualification Basic

1 Amit Sharma East Admin 2/28/2005 Graduate 18000

2 sumit verma West HR 7/16/2007 Post Graduate 22000
3 anuRadha gupta West Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 22000
4 rosy Fernandise West Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 22000
5 Ram Gupta East HR 2/28/2005 Graduate 18000
6 Mohan Sharma West Admin 4/27/2005 Post Graduate 22000
7 Sohan Pande South Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 15000
8 Sunny Pandya West HR 2/28/2005 Post Graduate 12000
9 Tunny Shah South Admin 2/28/2005 Graduate 10000
10 Munny Patel East Finance 5/19/2006 Post Graduate 6000

Row Labels
Admin
East
Amit
###
South
Tunny
###
West
Mohan
###
Finance
East
Munny
###
South
Sohan
###
West
anuRadha
###
rosy
###
HR
East
Ram
###
West
sumit
###
Sunny
 ###
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
Grand Total
Year RevenuesEBITDAEBITDA %

1 1000 500 50%

2 1200 700 58%
3 700 250 36%

1 2
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

1 2
1 2 3

Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA %

1 2 3
Sr. No. Name Amount
1 A 1000
2 B 1220
3 C 1300
4 D 2335
5 E 1243
6 F 2342
7 G 4572
8 H 567
9 I 234
10 J 56876

A 1000
B 1220
C 1300
D 2335
E 1243
F 2342
G 4572
H 567
I 234
J 56876