40
E. SALES FORECAST
Demand Analysis
For the computation, we apply the number of people who pass by per hour on the
said location. Using the peak hours and the off-peak hours, we multiply the number on
how many people pass by the vicinity. Thus, shown below is the formula to compute for
the total of the potential daily demand:
Peak hours = 80 persons Off-peak hours = 20 persons
Peak hours: 11:00 am – 1:00 pm Off-Peak Hours: 10:00am -11:00 am
4:00pm-9:00pm 1:00pm – 4:00pm
Computation:
Peak hours: 80 Off-peak hours: 20
X 7 X 4
560 80
Peak hours + Off-peak hours = Potential Daily Demand
560 + 80 = 640 Potential Daily Demand
In order to compute the actual daily demand, actual monthly demand and actual yearly demand,
the potential daily demand are being multiplied by 61.46% (market acceptability):
Actual Daily Demand = Potential Daily Demand x 61.46%
= 640 x 61.46%
= 393
Actual Annual Demand = Actual Daily Demand x 310
= 393 x 310
= 121,830
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Table 1: Population of universities and 3 barangay near the location
Year Population
2014 46,262
2015 47,081
2016 48,008
2017 48,955
2018 50,812
**Source: https://ched.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/State-Universities-and-Colleges-
SUCs-Faculty-Student-Ratio.pdf
https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/attachments/hsd/pressrelease/NCR.xlsx
To get the compound annual growth rate of the population, the formula used is:
1
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟)𝑛
Compound Annual Growth Rate = -1
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟)
Where: n = number of years
1
50,812 ⁄5
= –1
46,262
= 1.01893945 – 1
= 0.0189 x 100
= 1.89%
42
Projected Demand
Table 2: Annual Projected Demand
Year Population Annual Demand of Annual Projected Demand
Growth
Previous Year
2018 121,830
2019 1.0189 121,830 124,133
2020 1.0189 124,133 126,479
2021 1.0189 126,479 128,869
2022 1.0189 128,869 131,305
2023 1.0189 131,305 133,787
** 1.89% increase in population growth is obtain from Compound Annual Growth Rate of the
population of Universities and Barangay near the location.
Supply Analysis
Direct Competitor
Table 3: Direct Competitors daily, monthly and yearly supply
Name of the Business Daily Supply Monthly Supply Yearly Supply
Chantea 50 1,250 15,000
Star Frappe 45 1,125 13,500
Fruitas 45 1,125 13,500
Puffy’s HK egg
35 875 10,500
Waffle
43
Indirect Competitor
Table 4: Indirect Competitors daily, monthly and yearly supply
Name of the Business Daily Supply Monthly Supply Yearly Supply
Zip Fries 60 1,500 18,000
7/11 90 2,250 27,000
Amo Yamie Crib 60 1,500 18,000
Table 5: Total daily, monthly and yearly supply of competitors
Total Daily Supply 385
Total Monthly Supply 9,625
Total Annual Supply 115,500
Historical Supply
Table 6: Competitors Supply for the year 2014
2014
Name of Business Yearly Supply
Chantea -
Star Frappe -
Fruitas -
Puffy’s HK egg Waffle -
Zip Fries -
7/11 25,016
Amo Yamie Crib 16,678
Total 41,649
44
Table 7: Competitors Supply for the year 2015
2015
Name of Business Yearly Supply
Chantea -
Star Frappe -
Fruitas -
Puffy’s HK egg Waffle -
Zip Fries -
7/11 25,498
Amo Yamie Crib 16,999
Total 42,448
Table 8: Competitors Supply for the year 2016
2016
Name of Business Yearly Supply
Chantea -
Star Frappe -
Fruitas -
Puffy’s HK egg Waffle -
Zip Fries -
7/11 25,989
Amo Yamie Crib 17,326
Total 43,315
45
Table 9: Competitors Supply for the year 2017
2017
Name of Business Yearly Supply
Chantea -
Star Frappe -
Fruitas -
Puffy’s HK egg Waffle -
Zip Fries -
7/11 26,490
Amo Yamie Crib 17,660
Total 44,150
Table 10: Competitors Supply Year 2018
2018
Name of Business Yearly Supply
Chantea 15,000
Star Frappe 13,500
Fruitas 13,500
Puffy’s HK egg Waffle 10,500
Zip Fries 18,000
7/11 27,000
Amo Yamie Crib 18,000
Total 115,500
46
Projected Supply
Table 11: Business Annual Projected Supply
Year Population Growth Previous Year Supply Annual Projected Supply
2018 115,500
2019 1.89% 115,500 117,683
2020 1.89% 117,683 119,907
2021 1.89% 119,907 122,173
2022 1.89% 112,173 114,293
2023 1.89% 114,293 116,453
Demand and Supply Gap
Table 12: Demand and Supply Gap
Year Demand Supply Gap
2019 124,133 117,683 6,450
2020 126,479 119,907 6,572
2021 128,869 122,173 6,696
2022 131,305 114,293 17,012
2023 133,787 116,453 17,334
** 1.89% increase in population growth is obtained from Compound Annual Growth Rate of the
population of Universities and Barangays near the location.
47
The demand and supply gap above shows a positive result as the demand gap is higher
than the supply gap. There is a growth in the demand which means many people will patronize
the business and its products. This shows that the business would have a high market demand in
the upcoming years.
