Refining Present
Refining Present
June 3, 2016
Table of Contents
2016 RBC Capital Markets’ Global Energy and Power TETRA Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: TTI) ........................................................ 65
Executive — Day 1 & 2 Agenda ................................................3-4 Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) ..................................................................... 66
Weatherford International plc (NYSE: WFT) ............................................. 67
Energy Playbook ........................................................................5
International Exploration & Production ....................................68
Commodity Strategy ................................................................ 16 Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (TSX: GTE) ............................................................ 69
Parex Resources Inc. (TSX: PXT) ................................................................ 70
Oil & Gas Outlook .................................................................... 17
Tullow Oil plc (LSE: TLW)........................................................................... 71
Energy Sectors:
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (Australia) .........................72
Canadian Energy Infrastructure ................................................ 19 FAR Limited (ASX: FAR) ............................................................................. 72
Gibson Energy Inc. (TSX: GEI) .................................................................... 20 Sino Gas and Energy Limited (ASX: SEH) ................................................... 73
Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX: IPL) ...................................................................... 21
US Exploration & Production ....................................................74
Veresen Inc. (TSX: VSN) ............................................................................. 22
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) .............................................................. 76
Canadian Integrated Oil, Senior E&P, and Intermediate ........... 23 Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) ................................................... 77
Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE; NYSE: BTE) ............................................... 24 Carrizo Oil and Gas Inc. (NASDAQ: CRZO) ................................................. 78
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSX: CNQ; NYSE: CNQ) ......................... 25 Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO) ................................................................ 79
Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE; NYSE: CVE)............................................... 26 ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) ...................................................................... 80
Husky Energy Inc. (TSX: HSE) ..................................................................... 27 Eclipse Resources Corporation (NYSE: ECR) .............................................. 81
MEG Energy Corp. (TSX: MEG) .................................................................. 28 EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) ................................................................... 82
Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSX: VET) ............................................................... 29 Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR)............................................ 83
Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) .................................................................. 84
Canadian Junior and Intermediate E&P .................................... 30 Northern Oil & Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) ........................................................ 85
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSX: AAV) ......................................................... 31 Oasis Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: OAS) ............................................................. 86
ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARX) .................................................................. 32 Parsley Energy, Inc. (NYSE: PE).................................................................. 87
Athabasca Oil Corp. (TSX: ATH) ................................................................. 33 PDC Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: PDCE) ............................................................. 88
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (TSX: BIR) ................................................................. 34 Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD).................................................... 89
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX: CPG) .................................................... 35 RSP Permian, Inc. (NYSE: RSPP)................................................................. 90
Crew Energy Inc. (TSX: CR) ........................................................................ 36 Sanchez Energy Corporation (NYSE: SN) ................................................... 91
Freehold Royalties Ltd. (TSX: FRU) ............................................................ 37 SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) .............................................................. 92
Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSX: KEL) ................................................................. 38 Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN) .......................................... 93
NuVista Energy Ltd. (TSX: NVA) ................................................................. 39
US Power, Utilities, and Infrastructure .....................................94
Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd. (TSX: PPY) ................................................... 40
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (TSX: PEY) ................................. 41 Abengoa Yield Plc (NYSE: ABY) .................................................................. 95
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (TSX: PSK) .............................................................. 42 Black Hills Corp. (NYSE: BKH) .................................................................... 96
Raging River Exploration Inc. (TSX: RRX) ................................................... 43 Calpine Corporation (NYSE: CPN) .............................................................. 97
TORC Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSX: TOG) ................................................................. 44 CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS)................................................................. 98
Trilogy Energy (TSX: TET) ........................................................................... 45 Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED) ........................................................ 99
Whitecap Resources Inc. (TSX: WCP) ........................................................ 46 Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC).............................................................. 100
FirstEnergy Corporation (NYSE: FE)......................................................... 101
Global Integrated Oil Companies .............................................. 47 NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) ............................................................. 102
Statoil ASA (OSLO: STL) ............................................................................. 48 Pattern Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: PEGI) .................................................. 103
Total SA (NXT PA: FP) ................................................................................ 49 PNM Resources Inc. (NYSE: PNM) ........................................................... 104
PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL) ............................................................................. 105
Global Oilfield Services ............................................................. 50 Southern Company (NYSE: SO) ............................................................... 106
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (TSX: CFW) ........................................................ 52 Spire Inc. (NYSE: SR) ................................................................................ 107
Core Laboratories NV (NYSE: CLB) ............................................................. 53 The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) ........................................................... 108
Ensign Energy Services Inc. (TSX: ESI) ........................................................ 54 Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE: XEL) .................................................................... 109
Frank’s International NV (NYSE: FI) ........................................................... 55
FMC Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: FTI) ........................................................... 56 US Refining .............................................................................110
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) ............................................................ 57 Delek US Holding, Inc. (NYSE: DK) ........................................................... 111
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE: HP) .......................................................... 58 Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) ..................................... 112
Independence Contract Drilling Inc. (NYSE: ICD) ....................................... 59 Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) ............................................................. 113
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) .................................................. 60 Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE: WNR) ....................................................... 114
Oceaneering International Inc. (NYSE: OII)................................................ 61
Global Energy Research Team ................................................115
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NYSE: PTEN) ................................................... 62
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) ............................................................ 63 Companies Mentioned ...........................................................117
Superior Energy Services Inc. (NYSE: SPN) ................................................ 64
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2016 RBC Capital Markets’ Global Energy and Power Executive — Day 1 Agenda
Monday, June 6, 2016
(All presentations are Eastern Daylight Time)
7:45 AM REGISTRATION | CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
8:30 AM-8:55 AM Not in session Birchcliff Energy Ltd. [BIR] Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. [CNQ] National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [NOV]
8:30 AM-9:25 AM No Panel Session
9:00 AM-9:25 AM Sino Gas and Energy Holdings Calfrac Well Services Ltd. [CFW] Not in session PDC Energy Inc. [PDCE]
[ASX: SEH]
10:00 AM-10:25 AM Kelt Exploration [KEL] The AES Corporation [AES] Weatherford International Plc [WFT] Matador Resources Co. [MTDR]
10:30 AM-10:55 AM Crew Energy Inc. [TSE: CR] Whitecap Resources Inc. [TSE: WCP] Baytex Energy Corporation [TSE:BTE] Halliburton Company [HAL]
10:30 AM-11:25 AM No Panel Session
Independence Contract Drilling
11:00 AM-11:25 AM ARC Resources Ltd. [TSX: ARX] Calpine Corporation [CPN] Statoil ASA [STL]
Inc. [ICD]
1:05 PM-1:30 PM NuVista Energy Ltd. [NVA] Alta Gas Ltd. [ALA] Vermilion Energy, Inc. [TSX: VET] Delek Group Ltd. [TLV: DLEKG]
1:05 PM-2:00 PM No Panel Session
1:35 PM-2:00 PM CMS Energy Corp. [CMS] Not in session FMC Technologies, Inc. [FTI] Husky Energy Inc. [TSE: HSE]
2:05 PM-2:30 PM TETRA Technologies, Inc. [TTI] Pattern Energy Group, Inc. [PEGI] Painted Pony Petroleum [PPY] Oasis Petroleum Inc. [OAS]
2:05 PM-3:00 PM No Panel Session
2:35 PM-3:00 PM Crescent Point Energy Corp. Veresen Inc. [VSN] Gran Tierra Energy Inc. [GTE] Consolidated Edison [ED]
[TSX:CPG]
3:05 PM-3:30 PM Trilogy Energy Corp. [TET] Black Hills Corporation [BKH] Tullow Oil plc [LON: TLW] Not in session
3:05 PM-4:00 PM No Panel Session
3:35 PM-4:00 PM Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. [NOG] Peyto Exploration & Development Corp Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. [CRZO] Exelon Corporation [EXC]
[TSE: PEY]
4:05 PM-5:00 PM No Panel Session 4:05 PM-4:30 PM FAR Ltd. [ASX: FAR] MEG Energy Corp. [MEG] Gibson Energy, Inc. [TSE:GEI] Atlantica Yield [ABY]
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2016 RBC Capital Markets’ Global Energy and Power Executive Conference — Day 2 Agenda
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
(All presentations are Eastern Daylight Time)
7:45 AM REGISTRATION | CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
8:30 AM-8:55 AM Western Refining, Inc. [WNR] Inter Pipeline Ltd. [IPL] Core Laboratories N.V. [CLB] Apache Corporation [APA]
9:30 AM-9:55 AM SM Energy Company [SM] WEC Energy Group [WEC] Pioneer Natural Resources Company Transocean Ltd. [RIG]
[PXD]
9:30 AM-10:25 AM No Panel Session
10:00 AM-10:25 AM PNM Resources, Inc. [PNM] Superior Energy Services, Inc. [SPN] EQT Corporation [EQT] PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. [TSE: PSK]
10:30 AM-10:55 AM Not in session Southwestern Energy Company [SWN] EDP- Energias de Portugal SA [ELI: EDP] Southern Company [SO]
10:30 AM-11:25 AM No Panel Session
11:00 AM-11:25 AM Iberdrola SA [BME: IBE] Tesoro Corporation [TSO] Not in session Franks International NV [FI]
1:05 PM-1:30 PM Athabasca Oil Corp [ATH] Eclipse Resources Corporation [ECR] Cenovus Energy Inc. [CVE] PPL Corporation [PPL]
1:35 PM-2:00 PM Callon Petroleum [CPE] Not in session Helmerich & Payne, Inc. [HP] NextEra Energy Inc. [NEE]
Interrupters of Conventional
Generation - Renewables &
3:05 PM-4:00 PM New Technology 3:05 PM-3:30 PM Delek US Holdings, Inc. [EK] Sanchez Energy Corporation [SN] Parsley Energy Inc. [PE] Parex Resources Inc. [PXT]
Moderated by Jason Mandel
and Shelby Tucker
Note: All panels are scheduled for 55 minutes, all breakout sessions are scheduled for 25 minutes.
The following companies are hosting 1 x 1 meetings only: CGG SA [CGG], ConocoPhillips [COP], FirstEnergy Corp. [FE], Noble Energy, Inc. [NBL], Total, SA [TOT], TORC Oil and Gas Ltd. [TOG], Whitecap Resources Inc. [WCP].
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Energy Playbook
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Jonathan Golub (Chief US Market Strategist) (212) 618-7634; [Link]@[Link]
Josh Jamner (Associate Strategist) (212) 618-3312; [Link]@[Link]
Patrick Palfrey (Associate Strategist) (212) 618-7507; [Link]@[Link]
Sector Observations
US vs. Global Energy: US Energy has greater exposure to E&P and Drilling names, making
it substantially more sensitive to oil prices than other developed markets.
EPS Estimates Imply Higher Oil: Energy earnings have fallen at a faster pace than the
group’s market cap. In our view, investors are discounting a substantial recovery in oil
prices (and earnings). Put differently, the sector is a levered play on commodity prices.
Sub-Group Performance: The best-performing sub-group within Energy has been either
Refiners or Storage/Transport in each of the last seven years.
Oil Tightly Linked to Dollar: Oil prices and the dollar have an inverse relationship, and
commodity weakness over the past 18 months has coincided with a stronger greenback.
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800
400
0
96 00 04 08 12
Source: S&P, Compustat, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Trailing 4Q Sum
30
%
25
20
15
Avg: 11.4
10
Cur: 8.6
0
96 00 04 08 12
Source: S&P, Compustat, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Trailing 4Q
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120
80
40
0
96 00 04 08 12
Source: S&P, Thomson Financial, Compustat, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Trailing 4Q Sum
20
15
Avg: 11.2
10
5
Cur: 4.2
0
96 00 04 08 12
Source: S&P, Thomson Financial, Compustat, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Trailing 4Q
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1200
800
400
0
96 00 04 08 12
Source: S&P, Compustat, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Trailing 4Q average
30
%
25
20
15
10 Avg: 9.0
Cur: 6.2
5
0
96 00 04 08 12
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0
40 20
Earnings (Inverted) 40
30
60
P/E 80
20
100
120
10
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
Source: MSCI, Thomson Financial, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: NTM P/E and earnings
50
%
12-Month Return
25
-50
06 09 12 15
Source:S&P, Thomson Financial, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: NTM Earnings Growth
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Source: S&P, Thomson Financial, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: NTM Revenues; June 30, 2008
2008 Current
Equip &
Equip &
Svcs Integ-
Svcs
18% rated
14%
Integ- 47%
E&P rated
16% 56% E&P
24%
Source: S&P, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: June 30, 2008
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% of Days 100 42 58
Source: S&P, CME, FactSet, Haver, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Last 12 Months
% of Days 100 42 58
Source: S&P, CME, FactSet, Haver, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Last 12 Months
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Market Cap
20 of the top 25 global
Energy companies are in Company Country Industry ($, Bn USD)
North America. Exxon Mobil U.S. Integrated 373.8
Royal Dutch Shell U.K Integrated 195.8
Chevron U.S. Integrated 191.0
Total SA France Integrated 120.1
Schlumberger U.S. Equip & Svcs 108.4
BP U.K Integrated 98.0
Occidental U.S. Integrated 58.1
Eni Italy Integrated 56.4
ConocoPhillips U.S. E&P 55.2
Statoil Norway Integrated 53.1
EOG Rsrcs U.S. E&P 45.2
Suncor Canada Integrated 43.5
Phillips 66 U.S. Refine & Mkt 42.7
Kinder Morgan U.S. Store & Trans 40.0
Enbridge Canada Store & Trans 37.2
Halliburton U.S. Equip & Svcs 36.5
Canadian Natural Rsrcs Canada E&P 32.8
TransCanada Canada Store & Trans 29.4
Imperial Oil Canada Integrated 27.4
Anadarko U.S. E&P 26.6
Pioneer Natural Rsrcs U.S. E&P 26.2
Valero U.S. Refine & Mkt 26.0
Apache U.S. E&P 21.9
Spectra U.S. Store & Trans 21.1
Baker Hughes U.S. Equip & Svcs 19.9
Source: MSCI, FactSet estimates, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Developed Market Countries
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Source: MSCI, S&P, FactSet, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Drilling included in Equipment & Services
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Historical Returns
Refiners have been the best-performing Energy sub-group in four of the last seven years.
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25
The dollar’s recent $/b
weakness has coincided 95
with commodity strength.
45
90
WTI (Inverted)
65
85 Trade-Weighted Dollar
85
80
105
75
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16
Source: Federal Reserve, CME, Haver, and RBC Capital Markets Note: Major Currencies Index
60 Production
Historically, stronger prices
drove higher production. 5
30
0
-5
-30
-60 -15
05 08 11 14
Source: Department of Energy, CME, Bloomberg, and RBC Capital Markets Note: 3MMA
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Commodity Strategy
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) (212) 618-7798; [Link]@[Link]
Michael Tran (Commodity Strategist) (212) 266-4020; [Link]@[Link]
Christopher Louney (Commodity Strategist) (212) 437-1925; [Link]@[Link]
Casualties of War
The 169th OPEC meeting ended without an agreement on a collective output ceiling, with the
mood much more upbeat this time around, even among the most stressed OPEC states. While
the messaging largely centered around the progress of the rebalancing, 2016 has ended the
illusion that OPEC states, namely our “fragile five,” would be able to stave off significant crises
in the face of low oil prices. Throughout 2015, our “fragile five” producers (Venezuela, Nigeria,
Libya, Iraq, and Algeria) experienced varying degrees of duress but did not reach the tipping
point. This seemingly led some market participants to conclude that these OPEC countries had
sufficient shock absorbers to weather the low oil price storm and that the only important act to
watch was North American output. However, 2016 is shaping up to be the year of reckoning for
the weakest cartel members, with crises unfolding across OPEC.
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Energy Sectors
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Companies participating:
AltaGas: Tim Watson (EVP and CFO)
Gibson Energy: Stew Hanlon (President and CEO); Sean Brown (CFO)
Inter Pipeline: Chris Bayle (President and CEO)
Veresen: Don Althoff (President and CEO); Theresa Jang (SVP, Finance and CFO)
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Companies participating:
Baytex Energy: Rod Gray (Chief Financial Officer)
Canadian Natural Resources: Mark Stainthorpe (Director, Treasury, and Investor Relations);
Lance Casson (Investor Relations)
Cenovus Energy Inc.: Al Reid (Executive Vice-President, Environment, Corporate Affairs, Legal
& General Counsel); Kam Sandhar (Director, Investor Relations)
Husky Energy Inc.: Rob Peabody (Chief Operating Officer); Rob Knowles (Manager, Investor
Relations)
MEG Energy Corp.: Eric Toews (Chief Financial Officer); John Rogers (VP, Investor Relations
and External Communications)
Vermilion Energy, Inc.: Anthony Marino (President and Chief Executive Officer)
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Conference Themes
Continued cost-cutting potential for both capital and expenses.
Effects and producer views relating to weak regional natural gas pricing in Western
Canada (AECO).
Balance sheet/liquidity, given many producers with high debt leverage.
Potential M&A activity, reflective of more assets on the market.
Prioritization of capital expenditures, dividends, and debt repayment.
H2/16 programs and capital budgets given a more constructive oil price environment.
Companies participating:
Advantage Oil & Gas: Andy Mah (President and CEO); Craig Blackwood (VP Finance and CFO)
ARC Resources: Van Dafoe (Senior VP and CFO); Bevin Wirzba (Senior VP Business
Development)
Athabasca Oil: Rob Broen (President and CEO); Matthew Taylor (VP Capital Markets)
Birchcliff Energy: Jeff Tonken (President and CEO)
Crescent Point Energy: Scott Saxberg (President and CEO); Shant Madian (Manager Capital
Markets)
Crew Energy: Dale Shwed (President and CEO); John Leach (Senior VP and CFO)
Freehold Royalties: Thomas Mullane (President and CEO); Matt Donohue (Manager, IR)
Kelt Exploration: Sadiq Lalani (VP and CFO)
NuVista Energy: Jonathan Wright (President and CEO); Michael Lawford (VP Development)
Painted Pony Petroleum: Ted Hanbury (Senior VP Engineering); Jason Fleury (Investor
Relations)
Peyto Exploration & Development: Darren Gee (President and CEO)
PrairieSky Royalty: Andrew Phillips (President and CEO); Jim Estey (Chairman)
Raging River Exploration: Bruce Beynon (EVP); Jason Jaskela (COO)
TORC Oil & Gas: Brett Herman (President and CEO)
Trilogy Energy: Michael Kohut (CFO); John Williams (President and COO)
Whitecap Resources: Grant Fagerheim (President and CEO)
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Balancing capex cuts with sanctioning new production: We think further capex reductions
could lead to lower production volumes over time, as majors move from reducing capex in
areas such as exploration, which have a muted near-term impact, to areas such as infill
drilling or other brownfield spending. 2015 saw minimal project sanctions, as a number of
projects were deferred and re-designed. However, we expect sanctioning to pick up in the
second half of 2016 as majors showcase projects that have been re-optimized and can now
be sanctioned at reasonable oil prices (i.e., $50–60/bbl).
Accelerating cost reduction: Lower oil prices have forced the majors to accelerate cost-
reduction programs alongside the reduction in capital spending. Industry deflation has
accompanied efforts at self-help, such as standardization and reducing inefficiencies. To us,
there appears to be a lot of low-hanging fruit in this area, and this is likely to be a multi-year
process for most oil companies.
Patient when it comes to M&A: Historically, M&A activity typically picks up during extended
troughs and mid-cycle upswings. However, we think consolidation will remain limited in the
near term, as bid-ask spreads likely remain too wide, with sellers optimistic about a
commodity price recovery. Comments from the majors confirm that E&P valuations imply oil
prices well above the forward curve, and adding in takeout premiums and potential change
of control provisions (requiring buying back bonds at par) seem to have incentivized the
majors to wait a little longer. That said, we expect asset-level deal activity to pick up in 2016
(e.g., Total and Saft Group [announced May 9, 2016], Statoil and Lundin Petroleum
[announced May 3, 2016]).
Companies participating:
Statoil ASA: Morten Johannessen (Investor Relations)
Total SA: Robert Hammond (Investor Relations)
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Companies participating:
Calfrac Well Services Ltd.: Fernando Aguilar (Chief Executive Officer and President);
Mike Olinek (Vice President, Finance and Interim Chief Financial Officer)
Core Laboratories NV: David Demshur (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer);
Richard Bergmark (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer); Gwen Schreffler
(Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations)
Ensign Energy Services Inc.: Bob Geddes (President and Chief Operating Officer)
Frank’s International NV: Jeffery Bird (Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer);
Charlie Forbes (Senior Vice President, Eastern Hemisphere Operations); Blake Holcomb
(Investor Relations)
FMC Technologies, Inc.: Maryann Mannen (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial
Officer)
Halliburton Company: Mark McCollum (Executive Vice President); Lance Loeffler (Investor
Relations)
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Helmerich & Payne, Inc.: John Lindsay (President and Chief Executive Officer); Juan Pablo
Tardio (Vice President and Chief Financial Officer); David Hardie (Investor Relations)
Independence Contract Drilling Inc.: Byron Dunn (Chief Executive Officer)
National Oilwell Varco, Inc.: Jose Bayardo (Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer);
Lyndia Brantley (Investor Relations)
Oceaneering International Inc.: Kevin McEvoy (Chief Executive Officer); Alan Curtis (Senior
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer); Rod Larson (President); Suzanne Spera (Investor
Relations)
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.: Andy Hendricks (President and Chief Executive Officer);
Mike Drickamer (Investor Relations)
Schlumberger Limited: Simon Farrant (Investor Relations); Joy Domingo (Investor Relations)
Superior Energy Services Inc.: David Dunlap (President and Chief Executive Officer);
Robert Taylor (Executive Vice President, Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer); Westy Ballard
(Executive Vice President, International Services)
TETRA Technologies, Inc.: Elijio Serrano (Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer);
Tim Knox (President of CSI Compressco)
Transocean Ltd.: Mark Mey (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer);
Bradley Alexander (Investor Relations)
Weatherford International plc: Bernard Duroc-Danner (Chairman, President and Chief
Executive Officer); Krishna Shivram (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer);
Karen David-Green (Investor Relations)
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Companies participating:
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.: Gary Guidry (President and Chief Executive Officer); Ryan Ellson
(Chief Financial Officer); Rodger Trimble (Investor Relations)
Parex Resources Inc.: Ken Pinsky (Chief Financial Officer)
Tullow Oil plc: Ian Springett (Chief Financial Officer); Chris Perry (Investor Relations and
Communications)
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Companies participating:
FAR Limited: Gordon Ramsay (EGM Business Development)
Sino Gas and Energy Limited: Glenn Corrie (CEO)
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Companies participating:
Apache Corporation: John Christmann (Chief Executive Officer & President); Gary Clark
(Investor Relations)
Callon Petroleum Company: Fred Callon (CEO & President); Joseph Gatto, Jr. (CFO &
Treasurer); Eric Williams (Manager, Financial Reporting)
Carrizo Oil and Gas Inc.: Sylvester “Chip” Johnson IV (President & CEO); Jeff Hayden (IR)
Concho Resources: Will Giraud (EVP & Chief Commercial Officer); Joe Wright (EVP & COO);
Megan Hayes (IR)
ConocoPhillips: Vladimir dela Cruz (IR)
Eclipse Resources Corporation: Benjamin Hulburt (President & Chief Executive Officer);
Matthew DeNezza (Executive Vice President & CFO); Douglas Kris, (IR); Timothy Loos,
(Vice President, Finance)
EQT Corporation: Steve Schlotterbeck (President of EQT Corp.); Nate Tetlow (EQM IR)
Matador Resources Company: Matt Hairford (President); David Lancaster (EVP & CFO);
Rob Macalik (VP & CAO)
Noble Energy Inc.: Brad Whitmarsh (IR); Megan Dolezal (IR)
Northern Oil & Gas Inc.: Brandon Elliot (Executive Vice President, Corporate Development &
Strategy)
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Oasis Petroleum Inc.: Michael Lou (EVP & CFO); Taylor Mason, (IR)
Parsley Energy, Inc.: Matt Gallagher (Chief Operating Officer); Ryan Dalton (Chief Financial
Officer); Stephanie Reed (Investor Relations)
PDC Energy Inc.: Ronald Wirth (Vice President Finance & Treasurer); Michael Edwards, (IR)
Pioneer Natural Resources: Joey Hall (Executive Vice President, Permian Operations);
Frank Hopkins (Investor Relations); Michael Bandy (Investor Relations)
RSP Permian, Inc.: Scott McNeill (Chief Financial Officer); Zane Arrott (Chief Operating
Officer)
Sanchez Energy Corporation: Tony Sanchez, III (CEO); AJ Phillips (Manager, Planning and
Development)
SM Energy Company: Wade Pursell (Executive Vice President, CFO); Matthew Purchase
(Treasurer); Jennifer Martin Samuels (IR)
Southwestern Energy Company: Craig Owen (CFO); Michael Hancock (IR)
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Conference themes
Distressed coal/nuclear plant economics and regulatory/legislative actions to provide
support.
Future of de-regulated power markets and potential for re-regulation.
Secular decline in load growth?
Regulatory discussions to rate base natural gas reserves.
Changing utility model from distributed generation and energy storage.
Sustainability of utility M&A wave.
Featured panel: “Interrupters of Conventional Generation – Renewables & New
Technology” on Tuesday, June 7, 3:05–4:00PM ET.
Companies participating:
Atlantica Yield: Francisco Martinez Davis (CFO); Leire Perez Arregui (IR)
Black Hills Corp: Linn Evans (President and COO); Jerome Nichols (Director of IR)
Calpine Corp: Zamir Rauf (EVP and CFO); Trey Griggs (EVP and Chief Commercial Officer);
Bryan Kimzey (VP of IR)
CMS Energy: Tom Webb (EVP and CFO); DV Rao (VP and Treasurer, Financial Planning and IR)
Consolidated Edison: Robert Hoglund (SVP and CFO); Scott Sanders (VP and Treasurer);
Jan Childress (Director of IR)
Exelon Corp: Jack Thayer (SVP and CFO)
FirstEnergy Corp: Jim Pearson (EVP and CFO); Steve Staub (VP and Treasurer); Irene Prezelj
(VP of IR); Meghan Beringer (Director of IR)
NextEra Energy: John Ketchum (EVP of Finance and CFO); Aimee Williams (IR)
Pattern Energy: Mike Lyon (CFO); Sarah Webster (IR)
PNM Resources: Pat Vincent-Collawan (Chairman, President and CEO); Chuck Eldred (EVP
and CFO); Jimmie Blotter (Director of IR)
PPL Corp: Vince Sorgi (SVP and CFO); Joe Bergstein (VP, IR and Treasurer); Lisa Pammer (IR)
Southern Company: Art Beattie (EVP and CFO); Stan Connally (Chairman, President and CEO
of Gulf Power); Jimmy Stewart (Manager of IR)
Spire Inc.: Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO); Scott Dudley (Managing Director of IR)
The AES Corp: Tom O’Flynn (EVP and CFO); Ahmed Pasha (VP of IR); Vincent Sipowicz
(Director of IR)
WEC Energy Group: Scott Lauber (EVP and CFO); Beth Straka (SVP, Communications and IR)
Xcel Energy: Robert Frenzel (EVP and CFO); Paul Johnson (VP of IR)
Panel participants: Jacob J. Worenklein (Chairman and CEO, US Grid); Matthew R. Potere
(CEO, Sunlight Financial); Patrick McHugh (VP Engineering & Planning, Con Edison)
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US Refining
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Brad Heffern (Analyst) (512) 708-6311; [Link]@[Link]
Is Gasoline Enough?
We will be looking for additional color on some key refining themes:
Oil sands production impact: Fires near the Canadian oil sands caused a significant
curtailment of production, which is likely to affect heavy refinery runs in June. The extent to
which refiners have been able to procure substitute crudes or to which they have to run a
sub-optimal crude slate will be important to gauge.
Impact of lower contango: Since the start of the crude oil downturn in 2014, the crude
market has expressed consistent $0.50+/bbl per month contango. However, this has started
to erode of late. Color on how much contango benefited refiners over the last several
quarters and the potential impact that a move into backwardation could have will be
impactful.
Bottom cracks: One of the primary benefits of a lower crude price is that loss-generating
secondary refining products such as asphalt, fuel oil, and coke tend to be less of a drag on
refining profitability. This has been true thus far in this cycle, but asphalt and fuel oil pricing
have shown weakness of late. The sustainability of strong bottom cracks will be important to
ascertain.
RIN prices: The market for RINs appears set to tighten substantially with the increased
ethanol blending requirements proposed by the EPA for 2017. The extent to which RIN
pricing is expected to be a drag on refining profitability will be key.
MLP market strength: With the weakness seen in the MLP market, dropdowns from refining
parents are no longer as accretive as they once were given compressed deal multiples.
However, many names in our universe are relying on drops to their MLPs to generate cash.
The ability of sponsored MLPs to continue raising capital is critical to these plans.
Companies participating:
Delek US: Assi Ginzburg (EVP and CFO)
Marathon Petroleum: Tim Griffith (SVP and CFO); Tom Kacynski (VP and Treasurer)
Tesoro Corporation: Steven Sterin (EVP and CFO); Keith Casey (EVP of Operations)
Western Refining: Gary Dalke (CFO); Jeff Beyersdorfer (SVP, Treasurer & Director of IR)
Contributing Authors
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Jonathan Golub (Chief US Market Strategist) (212) 618-7634 [Link]@[Link]
Companies Mentioned
Abengoa Yield PLC (NASDAQ: ABY; $17.96; Outperform)
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$7.75; Outperform)
Apache Corp (NYSE: APA; $55.84; Sector Perform)
ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$21.74; Outperform)
Athabasca Oil Corp (TSX: [Link]; C$1.35; Sector Perform; Speculative Risk)
Baytex Energy Corp (TSX: BTE CN; C$6.48; Sector Perform)
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$5.84; Outperform)
Black Hills Corp (NYSE: BKH; $60.81; Outperform)
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$2.23; Sector Perform)
Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE; $11.38; Sector Perform)
Calpine Corporation (NYSE: CPN; $15.19; Outperform)
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSX: [Link]; C$38.55; Outperform)
Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc (NASDAQ: CRZO; $38.63; Outperform)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: [Link]; C$19.95; Outperform)
CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS; $42.01; Sector Perform)
Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO; $120.98; Outperform)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP; $44.38; Outperform)
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED; $73.64; Sector Perform)
Core Laboratories NV (NYSE: CLB; $119.85; Outperform)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX: [Link]; C$21.83; Sector Perform)
Crew Energy Inc. (TSX: [Link]; C$5.79; Outperform)
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DK; $14.54; Outperform)
Eclipse Resources Corporation (NYSE: ECR; $2.94; Outperform; Speculative Risk)
Ensign Energy Services Inc. (TSX: [Link]; C$7.15; Sector Perform)
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT; $73.79; Outperform)
Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC; $34.72; Outperform)
Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc (NYSE: FMSA; $5.53; Outperform)
FAR Ltd (ASX: FAR AU; AUD0.08; Outperform; Speculative Risk)
FirstEnergy Corporation (NYSE: FE; $33.31; Sector Perform)
FMC Technologies Inc (NYSE: FTI; $26.59; Sector Perform)
Frank's International NV (NYSE: FI; $15.25; Sector Perform)
Freehold Royalties Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$11.62; Outperform)
Gibson Energy Inc. (TSX: [Link]; C$15.48; Sector Perform)
Gran Tierra Energy Inc (TSX: [Link]; C$3.90; Outperform)
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL; $42.13; Outperform)
Helmerich & Payne Inc (NYSE: HP; $58.87; Outperform)
Husky Energy Inc. (TSX: [Link]; C$15.48; Outperform)
Independence Contract Drilling Inc (NYSE: ICD; $4.24; Outperform)
Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$27.13; Outperform)
Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSX: [Link]; C$4.84; Outperform)
Lundin Petroleum AB (OMX: LUPE SS; SEK150.50; Sector Perform)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC; $36.68; Top Pick)
Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR; $22.78; Outperform)
MEG Energy Corp (TSX: [Link]; C$5.92; Outperform)
Nabors Industries Ltd (NYSE: NBR; $8.93; Outperform)
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Required disclosures
Non-U.S. analyst disclosure
Biraj Borkhataria, Michael Harvey, Robert Kwan, Dan MacDonald, Victoria McCulloch, Nelson Ng, Greg Pardy, Nathan Piper,
Shailender Randhawa, Al Stanton, and Ben Wilson (i) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with the NYSE and/or
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Distribution of ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Mar-2016
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [Top Pick & Outperform] 887 51.78 258 29.09
HOLD [Sector Perform] 722 42.15 115 15.93
SELL [Underperform] 104 6.07 8 7.69
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