Ongoing Research
Risk Analysis for Dam Safety
Problem Almost 65 percent of the dams managed by
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are over
30 years old, and 28 percent have reached or
exceeded their 50-year design life. Many are
in need of major repair or rehabilitation to
ensure their continued safety for future gen-
erations. The potential hazard of a dam fail-
ure or faulty operation is of great concern to
the responsible agencies, lawmakers, and the
public. The Corps is responsible for manag-
ing these risks for its dams and protecting
the public against the devastation caused by
Bluestone Lock and Dam, WV
such catastrophes.
Description Recognizing the Corps' responsibilities to the Nation as good stewards of public resources,
Corps personnel must make decisions to prioritize site-specific dam safety investigations
and dam safety improvement investments. The Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Program was
initiated to aid in allocating investments to improve the safety of the approximately 569
dams for which the Corps is responsible.
Expected Products The Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Research Program is providing the methodology and
tools necessary to accomplish this goal. In addition to developing site-specific risk
analysis methods and procedures, the R&D program is investigating the use of portfolio
risk assessment (PRA). In a PRA, all dams in the portfolio are evaluated and ranked in
terms of existing risk and the cost effectiveness of risk-reducing investments. The goal is
to determine the most efficient allocation of investments in dam safety improvements for a
group of dams. Two levels of PRA are being investigated:
• The initial level, the Screening Portfolio Risk Analysis (SPRA), relies on
knowledgeable individuals to assess the relative risk of dams in terms of several criteria
based on available information. This screening level will be applied to the entire Corps
portfolio with systematic updating from supplemental assessments provided during the
periodic inspection of the project.
• The second level, the PRA, is more rigorous than the SPRA. It assesses actual risk,
while looking at alternative risk investments. More engineering and economic informa-
tion is required.
Potential Users All Federal and State agencies responsible for the design, construction, operation, or
regulation of water resource projects have recognized the need for making sound
investment decisions regarding dam safety. With the increasing demand on available
resources, government agencies have searched for a systematic method for prioritizing
needed repairs to their dams.
U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center May 2009
[Link]
The Screening Toolbox, which includes the database, single-dam analysis spreadsheets,
and rollup reports, will be available only to the three Corps national teams who do the
screenings and to the reviewers at Headquarters, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Projected Benefits The development and implementation of risk analysis methods enable the Corps to:
• Prioritize dams requiring initial investigations and subsequent analyses.
• Prioritize funding for critical repairs, rehabilitation, or modifications.
• Select and justify the optimal plan to protect human life, reduce property damage,
and mitigate environmental damage.
• Minimize the disruptions of service.
• Maximize effectiveness of infrastructure investments.
Program Manager [Link] Jones, Program Manager, Risk Analysis for Dam Safety
Information Technology Laboratory
Engineer Research and Development Center
3909 Halls Ferry Road
Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199
Phone: 601-634-3758
E-mail: [Link]@[Link]
Participating ERDC Information Technology Laboratory
Laboratories
