2005.11.

04

Investment for Disaster Reduction

-A Case Story of Marikina City,
Metro Manila, Philippine-

Haruo HAYASHI, Ph.D.

Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto University, Japan
 2005.11.04

Marikina City & Metro Manila:

17 cities and 10 million people

Earthquake Risk, Local Magnitude

7.2, 350-year return period PHIVOLCS

Flood risk, 10-year return period

 2005.11.04

Why we started this project in Marikina:

It is for “EqTAP” Master Plan
• EqTAP is a five year multi-national
collaborative research project (14 countries)
for the development of “Master plan for
Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Reduction in
Asia-Pacific Region” (1999-2004)
• Risk Management Framework/Case Study
Approach
• Metro Manila has been selected for case study
site because of high seismicity and resulting
impact
 2005.11.04

Risk Management Framework

• Management Cycle (PDCA)
– Risk assessment
– Strategic planning
• Stakeholder Involvement
– Workshop: Sense of ownership
• Holistic Framework
– Disaster reduction as a tool for sustainable
economic development
– Multi-disciplinary array of countermeasures
 2005.11.04

Marikina Fault & Marikina River:

PHIVOLCS PHIVOLCS
 2005.11.04

MARIKINA: A World Class City

Marikina as a little Singapore
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Residential Damage Estimates in Marikina City

Complete
Collapse

13,000+ Buildings

Building Risk Map

Type F
Damage state 4
(Complete collapse) PHIVOLCS
 2005.11.04

City of Marikina as our

partner because of her
excellence in self-
governance and high
motivation for disaster
reduction
 2005.11.04

What this project did in Marikina:

• Risk Assessment
– Interactive risk assessment
• Strategic Planning Framework
– Management by Objective
– Top-down approach
• Comprehensive Earthquake Disaster Reduction
(CEDR) Program > Action Plan
• Performance Measurement Scheme
– Monitoring Tool

• Project Management Framework as the basis

 2005.11.04

Framework of “Investment for Disaster

reduction” Project
Window
of
Opportunity

Project Risk Strategic Action

Formation Assessment Planning Plan

Resource
Assessment
 2005.11.04

Step 0: Project Formation

Goal
Knowing about earthquakes and damage they can cause

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

Lack of Visual Images of Clear understanding
understanding of major earthquakes about earthquake
earthquake damage such as Baguio, damage among core
Kobe, Turkey and stakeholders
Taiwan
1995 Kobe Earthquake

Can Marikina Still Be

Little-Singapore
After Earthquakes ?

Haruo Hayashi
EDM
Kyoto University
 2005.11.04

Step 1:Problem identification WS (January)

Goal

Assessing earthquake risk locally and interactively

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

List of local assets Risk Assessment Risk Assessment
stakeholders want to method (GESI method results tailored for
protect from by UN) that damage Marikina City
earthquakes state for individual
structure can be
obtained
 2005.11.04

Earthquake Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy of
PHIVOLCS and
Marikina City
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Step 2: Risk assessment and Goal

Setting WS (May)
Goal
Setting Project Goal

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

Comprehensive Land Linkage between Decision to develop
Use Plan: CLUP(2000) earthquake disaster Marikina
Marikina Vision reduction and comprehensive
(2002) sustainable earthquake disaster
economic reduction program
development
 2005.11.04

Basis for Long-term Prosperity:

Land Use and Economic Changes
• Marikina is basically a “bedroom community” - a
considerable number of people work outside of
the city.(CLUP)

• …this trend is likely to change within the next

10-15 years. (CLUP)

• As jobs are provided closer to homes, Marikina

shall no longer be known as a "bedroom
community. (Web site)
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Needed:
A Disaster Reduction Plan
• Marikina City must expand its vision, goals and
objectives to include disaster reduction

• What should be the City’s disaster reduction

goals and objectives?

• What disaster reduction targets, programs and

projects should Marikina pursue?
 2005.11.04

Step 3: Plan-concept WS (July)

Goal
Policy & Strategy, Program & Project Identification

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

Strategic Planning Concept Plan Matrix Comprehensive
structure used in Earthquake Disaster
CLUP Reduction Program
Strategic Planning consists of 1 goal,
Broad/Abstract
10 objectives,
Prepared Respon
OBJECTIVES Mitigation Recovery
ness se

Goal
1 Critical Facilities

2 New Buildings

3 Existing Buildings

Objectives
4 Education

5 Research & Technology

Target (Quantitative/Time) 6 Public Information

7 Land Use Planning

Policies 8 Institutional Initiatives

Focused/Specific 9 Economic Development

Actions 10 Sources of Finance

 2005.11.04

DPRI Planning Process has led to Local

Advocacy for Mitigation Policies
Mitigation
Mitigation Options,
Options, Policies,
Policies, and
and
Countermeasures
Countermeasures

Physical
Physical Informational
Informational Strategic
Strategic

••Upgrade
Upgrade ••Education
Educationand
and ••Land
Landuse
useplanning,
planning,
infrastructure
infrastructure outreach
outreach zoning
zoning
••Strengthen
Strengthendesign
design ••Public
Public ••Local
Localcapacity
capacity
and
andsafety
safetystandards
standards information
information building
buildinginitiatives
initiatives
for
fornew
newbuildings
buildings •• ••Sustainable
Sustainable
••Retrofit
Retrofitexisting
existing Programs/exercises
Programs/exercises development
development
buildings
buildings to
toincrease
increase ••Financial
Financialresources
resources
••Secure
Secureand
andelevate
elevate readiness,
readiness,response,
response, development
development
contents
contents recovery
recovery ••Environmental
Environmental
controls
controls
 2005.11.04

Step 4: Implementation WS (October)

Goal
Resource Assessment

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

Individual Nominal Group Evaluation results of

Evaluation of technique 216 policies in
216 policies terms of internal
and external
resource availability
 2005.11.04

Comprehensive Earthquake
Disaster Reduction (CEDR)
Program
• Goal: The City of Marikina is committed to
accomplishing the following goal: to protect
human safety, property, and activities.
• Objectives: 10 Objectives reflecting 10 fields
of countermeasures
• Policies: 56 Policies
• Actions: 216 Actions taken by Marikina City
 2005.11.04

Physical Countermeasures

1. Critical Facilities
– Protect and strengthen infrastructure facilities to prevent loss
of lives and damage to properties, to allow continued use, and
to restore normalcy quickly following disasters.
2. New Buildings
– Improve the quality of building design and standards to
encourage and safeguard investment and to protect human
lives, property, and activities.
3. Existing Buildings
– Identify the condition of existing buildings and take corrective
action to prevent loss of lives and properties and to allow
continued use.
 2005.11.04

Informational Countermeasures

4. Education
– Raise consciousness and preparedness of all citizens of
Marikina through education and training about earthquake
disaster issues.
5. Research & Technology
– Identify and evaluate high risk areas through research and
appropriate technologies.
6. Public Information
– Formulate, maintain, and sustain a continuous public
information campaign strategy before, during, and after
earthquakes.
 2005.11.04

Strategic Countermeasures
7. Land Use Planning
– Realize the vision of Marikina as a little Singapore facing
minimal risk of earthquake disaster damage through a well
defined land use plan and disaster management program.
8. Institutional Initiatives
– Build Marikina's capacity to mitigate, prepare, respond and
recover from a major earthquake through developing a
Disaster Reduction Plan.
9. Economic Development
– Incorporate disaster management into the enhancement of
livelihoods and economic development.
10. Sources of Finance
– Identify existing local sources of finance and generate
additional funding from other sources to support earthquake
disaster reduction.
 2005.11.04

Step 5: Action Plan WS (November)

Goal
Action Plan Formation

Local Input Expert Input Deliverables

Feasibility check of Prioritization method Action plan consists
prioritized policies of 113 policies for
the achievements of
10 objectives

Timing of Implementation
Suggested
Objective Dept
Now Soon Later

Program/
Policies/Strategies Eng
Project

Program/
Soc
Project

Program/
Fin
Project

Program/
Policies/Strategies 161
Project

Program/
Policies/Strategies Edu
Project
 2005.11.04

Stakeholder-driven strategic planning

workshops produced:

– a GIS-based earthquake risk

assessment
– a long-term Comprehensive
Disaster Reduction Program,
identifying objectives,
policies, and programs
– an Action Plan identifying
actions prioritized by time,
plus assignments of lead
agencies and departments
 2005.11.04

How we did it with Marikina people:

Stakeholder Involvement

• Bottom- up Approach
– Local Government Unit as a Core Stakeholder
– Community-based Capacity Building
• Participatory Approach
– Participation through Workshop
– Sense of ownership
• Outreach Mechanism
– Exhibition
– House Demolition Experiment
 2005.11.04

Five Workshop Series

 2005.11.04

July 2002 Preliminary Meeting

Project Schedule

Needs Assessment
Stakeholder User

Task Two: Data Inventory and Risk

Task One:
Jan. 2003 Problem Identification
Workshop

Assessment
May 2003

Earthquake Disaster Reduction Plan

Risk Assessment

Task Three: Prepare Conceptual

and Goal Setting
Workshop

Task Five: Produce Final Products

July 2003 Planning Workshop:
Prepare Conceptual
Plan Framework and
Implementation
Assignments

Oct. 2003 Implementation

Implementation Strategy
Workshop:
Prepare Detailed

Refinement and
Task Four: Plan
Implementation Plans

Jan. 2004 Disaster Reduction

Plan Review and
Revision Workshop

Final Disaster
Reduction Plan on
March 2004 Web Site
 2005.11.04

Workshop as thinking process

Start Generating
Generating
Ideas
Ideas

Structuring
Structuring
Ideas
Ideas

Goal
Building
Building
Consensus
Consensus

Just Like Project Management Process

 2005.11.04

Through Workshops Unstated

UnstatedFear/Needs
Fear/Needs

Recognizing
Recognizingproblems
problems
Gradually
Strengthening Recognized
Recognized
Problems
Problems
their sense of
Commitment Forming/Expressing
Forming Ideas Ideas

Unorganized Ideas/thoughts

Structuring
StructuringIdeas
Ideas

Structured
StructuredIdeas
Ideas

BuildingConsensus
Building Consensus
Sense of Ownership Own
Ownplan
plan
 2005.11.04

Workshop is a powerful capacity

building tool for stakeholders

1. By Providing a deeper understanding of

issue
2. By Improving facilitation skills at workshop
setting
3. By improving oral presentation skills
(including PowerPoint)
4. By giving them a sense of ownership about
the issue and the plan
5. By expanding their social network
 2005.11.04

July Exhibition in Marikina City:

Preserving Marikina’s Future through Earthquake Disaster Reduction
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Local Mitigation Project:

Improving Non-Engineered Housing
Construction Practice -Loading Experiment-

BUILDING LINE
BUILDINGLINE

Loading Equipment
25

Load　P　(tf)
Right
Left
20 Total

15

10

0
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Displacement δ　(mm)
 2005.11.04

Significance of Marikina Study:

• Processes
– Establishing a standard procedure for
participatory strategic planning
• Deliverables
– Building capacity of key local stakeholder
– Making disaster reduction as a tool for
sustaining local economic development
– Developing a holistic framework
• Forming a long-term comprehensive plan:
• Conducting multi-disciplinary research:
 2005.11.04

Local Capacity Building through

Stakeholder-based Strategic Planning
• How can governments and businesses develop
the capacity for improved disaster mitigation,
preparedness and recovery through capacity-
building stakeholder participation?
– Involve stakeholders at the outset
– Avoid arbitrary imposition of top-down solutions
– Provide expertise to widen stakeholder knowledge
• Challenge stakeholders to deal with all aspects
of disaster management
 2005.11.04

Model for Successful Participatory

Strategic Planning
Model Strategic
Plan Planning
(Contents) Process

Control

Commitment Workshop
by the Top Procedure
Action
Stakeholder
Project Budget Plan
Participation
Scenario Coordinator
Input Activity Output

Facilitators

Experts

Mobilization
 2005.11.04

Participatory Strategic Planning

may be successful if
1. Participants generate ideas, structure them,
and reach consensus by themselves
2. Objectives and Policies, i.e. “what” part of the
plan, may be formulated by the participations
of Citizens
3. Actions and Projects, i.e. “how” part of the
plan, may be finished by those stakeholders
who will take part in the implementation of
the plan
4. With a help of a team of experts consisting of
multi-disciplinary backgrounds and skills
5. Coordinator team should be formed by Local
stakeholders and Expert team.
 2005.11.04

Participatory Strategic Planning is so new

and different approach in Japan that it
still has several difficulties such as

1. Difficult to get the commitment by the Top

2. Difficult to be appreciated as legitimate
work in terms of funding
3. Difficult to come up with quantitative
targets
4. Rather labor Intensive
5. Few number of good facilitators and
experts with wide interests are available
 2005.11.04

Our interpretation of Master plan

“ Strategy for bottom-up capacity building”

• Disaster reduction should be closely linked

with sustainable development of the city and
city planning
• Continuous process to improve capability
• Local stakeholder initiatives helped by
experts
• Integrated approach with the collaboration
of many different disciplines
• Customer oriented participatory approach
• Looking for inexpensive but effective
countermeasures of all kinds
 2005.11.04

Components of “EqTAP” Master Plan for

Promoting Community-based Earthquake
Disaster Reduction Capacity
• Safety goals, values, and
understanding
• Stakeholder awareness and
motivation
• Comprehensive earthquake disaster
reduction program
• Outreach mechanism
• Stakeholder network
 2005.11.04

Bottom-up Capacity Building Processes

Stakeholder Network with
Safety goals, values, understanding,
high awareness and motivation

Nation-wide
Program

Metro Manila-wide
Program

City-wide
Program
Outreach
City Mechanism
Program
 2005.11.04

A Follow-up:
PDC’s Involvement and Contributions
1. Initial engagement and transition to PDC
2. PDC expansion of hazards mapping and
GIS, to include flooding, for land use &
economic development
3. Development of Risk Communications
Tools
4. Expanding Marikina City effort to Metro
Manila
5. Comments on Key Components for
Successful Project Planning required to
build Researcher-Practitioner-Stakeholder
Coalitions
 2005.11.04

Japan-Philippines-U. S. Collaborative Planning

Process: 2004 –2006
 2005.11.04

PDC Starting Point:

Sustained Feedback from Decision Makers
Education Implementation
Training Center Economic Dev. - Land Use
Issues: Issues:
1. Modifiy shaking intensity GIS
1. Educating citizens to prepare colors – red too alarming
External 2. Educating investors to buy-in to 2. 2004 theme “Invest in Marikina” –
safety get investor buy-in
3. Encouraging other cities in Metro 3. World Bank Report (see) – foreign
Manila region to carry some of the load
direct investment, river and cultural
heritage development projects?
Mayor Marides C. Fernando Mr. Melvin A. Cruz Mr. Jun Aguilar, Chief, Planning Office
Ms. Julie Borje, Director, Center of Excellence City Administrator Engr. Alfonso P. Espiritu Disaster Mgr/EM
Issues: Issues:
1. City human resource capacity 1. Size of task – where to begin? Most
Internal building actions have City Engineer as lead
2. Safety Program public involvement 2. Emergency ops – urgent need to
(barangays) identify utility lines with GIS
3. Education for safety in the schools 3. Need for consulting with City
before workshops

Personal Capacity Building Structural Mitigation

 2005.11.04

Earthquake Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy of
PHIVOLCS and
Marikina City
 2005.11.04

Riverine Flood Vulnerability Map

Data courtesy of
Marikina City
 2005.11.04

Land-use Planning Example:

Areas for Proposed Development

APD #3

APD #2

Area for Proposed Development #1

 2005.11.04

Land-use Planning Example:

Areas for Proposed Development

APD #3

APD #2

Area for Proposed Development #1

 2005.11.04

Used GIS to combine Land use

with Multi-hazard Maps
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Creating Awareness of Vulnerability for

Areas for Priority Development
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Risk Reduction Framework

Includes Guidelines and Templates
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Multi-Hazard Risk Map

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Web Accessible GIS

• A web accessible GIS system allows

users to access GIS information via the
internet.
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Marikina City Internet Map Viewer

Marikina City

URL: www.pdc.org/marikina
 2005.11.04

1992 Flood Prone Areas & Critical Facility Locations

Flood Prone Areas
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Flood Prone Area

Near City Hall
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Peak Ground Acceleration

Near City Hall
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Lessons from Marikina City:

Key Components for Successful Planning
(1)
1. Sustained involvement by international
experts
2. Advocacy by local political leaders
3. Risk Reduction Planning Framework that
makes sense to local stakeholders
4. Sustained feedback from City decision
makers
 2005.11.04

Lessons from Marikina City:

Key Components for Successful Planning
(2)

5. Proactive City Practitioner Advisory

Committee
6. Involvement of local subject matter
experts
7. Informed citizenry through project
participation and training
8. Awareness and lessons learned from
disasters and emergency events
 2005.11.04

Conclusion:
Researcher-Practitioner-Stakeholder
Coalitions
Our Japan-Philippines-United States
collaborative planning process for Marikina
City, Philippines has created a Researcher-
Practitioner-Stakeholder Coalition and has
led to a Disaster Risk Management Master
Planning Agenda for addressing urban risk
around the globe, including Metro Manila
and Kathmandu