Source: Modern Diplomacy
Indian BMD Program: Strategic Response of Pakistan
Saba Hanif:
The South Asian region has remained fragile due to the hostile relations of
India and Pakistan. The history of conflicts and wars generated mistrust
between the two countries. Owing to their strategic needs, India and
Pakistan tested their nuclear devices in May 1998. Soon after the induction
of nuclear weapons, India initiated the ballistic missile defence program in
1999. India’s indigenous program was divided into two phases; the first
phase included Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) exo-atmospheric interceptor
missile to cater the aerial threats outside the atmosphere between the
altitudes of 50 to 80 km with the speed of Mach 5. Moreover, Advanced Air
Defense (AAD) is to counter threats between the altitudes of 15 to 30 km
along ‘Swordfish’ Long Range Tracking Radar (LRTR) developed jointly by
India and Israel based on the Israeli Green Pine early warning and fire
control radar, this radar was imported by India from Israel in 2001-2002.
This two-tiered air defense system is aimed at neutralizing aerial threats at
two stages; exo-atmospheric interception or mid-course and endo-
atmospheric interception.
The Phase 2 missile defense system will be based on the AD-1 and AD-2
interceptor missile that are currently under development. These interceptor
missiles will be hypersonic-having the speed of ballistic missiles with the
maneuvering capability of cruise missiles- with the speed of Mach 6-7.
Phases 2 missile systems are claimed to match the capability of “Terminal
High Altitude Area Defense” commonly known as THAAD, developed by
United States. In parallel, the radar to support Phase 2 interception will
have 80% indigenous component, DRDO chief VK Saraswat told the press
on May 15, 2011.
“Only some of the equipment’s and consultancy would be provided by
Israel”.
In addition, India successfully tested Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV)
indigenously developed by Defence Research and Development
Organization in September 2018, designed to engage targets in exo-
atmospheric region at the altitude of 50 km PDV is intended to replace
Prithvi and Advanced Air defence systems of India.
In parallel, India has shown keen interest and has invested in cruise missile
defence as well. One such development is Barak-8. Barak-8 is an Indo-
Israeli surface-to-air missile (SAM), designed to defend against any type of
airborne threat including aircraft, helicopters, anti-ship missiles, and UAVs
as well as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and combat jets. Both maritime
and land-based variants of the system exist in Indian Navy and Indian
Army respectively. Moreover, India’s indigenously built Akash missile
defence system also has the capability to “neutralize aerial targets like
fighter jets, cruise missiles and air-to-surface missiles”. The Akash surface-
to-air missile was designed to intercept enemy’s aircraft and missiles at a
distance of 18 to 30 km.
In missile defence, Israel is an important ally of India. The Indian PM
approved 2.5 billion dollars for purchasing medium-range surface-to-air
missile system from Israel on February 22, 2017. Moreover, the Indian
armed forces are already armed with Israel’s Green Pine radars. Israel to
supply advanced medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to India. The
contract is worth $1.6 billion. Israel’s joint venture with Indian companies
is in consonance with “Make in India”. In this regard, Russia has also
helped India, New Delhi had concluded a deal with Moscow to purchase the
four (some sources say five) regiments of S-400 advanced Air Defense
Systems, which is a robust anti-access & area denial (A2/AD) asset. It is a
fourth generation advanced air and missile defense system, designed to
protect high-value military, political, and economic targets from ballistic
and cruise missiles, and air strikes. According to the Russian defense
sources the S-400 deliveries to India are likely to start by [Link] parallel,
New Delhi has been asking Washington for “the cooperation in the area of
BMD as part of an emerging strategic partnership with the United States.
These discussions subsequently even included the possible sale of the US
Patriot-3 BMD system to India. However, both countries have no official
stance on this.
The above mentioned advancements significantly increased the security
dilemma for Pakistan. The question was what to do now? Shall Pakistan go
for purchasing a BMD system? Can Pakistan afford this expensive system
with a narrow economy? To address these concerns, Pakistan opted for a
dynamic and cost effective approach and conducted successfully the test of
a mediumrange, surface-to-surface, ballistic missile Ababeel, which uses
the MIRV to deliver multiple conventional and nuclear warheads on
January 24, 2017. The Ababeel range is 2,200 kilometers – three times the
distance between Islamabad and New Delhi-having the capacity to engage
multiple targets and thereby it would be very lethal for the Indian BMD
shield. According to the official statement by ISPR “Development of
Ababeel weapon system is aimed at ensuring survivability of Pakistan’s
ballistic missiles in the growing regional Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD)
environment.”
In operational terms, ballistic missile defence systems are considered to be
defensive as their purpose is to detect and intercept the incoming missiles.
However, in South Asian context, induction by India has further increased
the security dilemma for Pakistan. This can give a false sense of security to
the Indian military and political leaders; motivate them to launch an
offensive against Pakistan or intentionally initiate a conflict which will
destabilize the strategic stability. The response of Pakistan is not only cost
effective but credible as well. Since no BMD system can intercept multiple
targets at once, the Ababeel can dodge and penetrate through the Indian
BMD systems. Also, India has a huge country, defending whole of the
country with a BMD is not feasible and affordable. Similar thinking prevails
in India as well. Secondly, geography poses significant handicaps for Indian
BMD, given the short flight times between the two countries which is
around 4-6 minutes. Pakistan’s MIRVs would make Indian investments in
BMD even more indefensible as the process of detecting, deciding and
launching an interceptor takes time.
The indigenous developments of India depict their technological edge over
Pakistan which is alarming. India prospering in military technology is a
direct threat to Pakistan’s security. Moreover, India’s bilateral cooperation
with countries like Israel, Russia and US conversely impacts Pakistan’s
interests. Lastly, the South Asian region is indulged in an arms race. India
in pursuit of ambitious goals is constantly enhancing military capabilities,
which not only conversely impacts Pakistan’s security but also places South
Asia on the verge of a major conflict. This may exceed beyond controllable
situation and in worst case scenario may result in nuclear exchange. South
Asia is in need of an arms control agreement which limits these
developments. It can be bilateral or may have a third party as on over-
looking authority and to ensure the smooth implementation of the
agreement.
