Quantitates of Water Demand
Lecture No.2
By
Zubair Ahmed
Partnering Universities:
Learning Objectives
• Estimate design period
• Calculate Design population
• Estimate quantities of water consumption
• Variation of pattern of water demand
Needed Estimates for system
components
• The number of years, or design period , for
which the proposed system and its
component structures and equipment are to
be adequate,
• The number of people, or design population,
to be served
Needed Estimates for system
components
• The rates of water use and wastewater release, or
design flows , in terms of per capita water
consumption and wastewater discharge as well as
industrial and commercial requirements
• The area to be served, or design area , and the
allowances to be made for population density
and a real water consumption as well as water
supply and wastewater release from residential,
commercial, and industrial districts
Needed Estimates for system
components
• The rates of rainfall and runoff, or design
hydrology , for storm and combined systems
Design Period
• Choice of a relevant design period is generally
based on
1. The useful life of component structures and
equipment
2. The ease or difficulty of enlarging contemplated
works
3. The anticipated rate of population growth and water
use by the community and its industries
4. The going rate of interest on bonded indebtedness
5. The performance of contemplated works during
their early years when they are expected to be
under minimum load
Design Period
• The useful life of component structures and
equipment
– Pumps
– Conduits (types of pipes)
Type of Pipe Average Service Life
Steel Pipes 25 – 50 Years
Cast Iron Pipes 100 Years
Concrete Pipes 75 Years
Design Period
• Ease or difficulty of enlarging contemplated
works
affects design period of whole Water works
depending upon the easiness of expansion
- Tubewell : Easy to drill.
- Treatment Plant : Easy to enlarge
- Transmission main: difficult to enlarge
Design Period
• The anticipated rate of population growth and
water use by the community and its industries
– Population growth can significant increase water
demands
– Presence of industries/industrial growth should
also be considered
Design periods
DESIGN POPULATION
• Design Population Data
– records of official censuses or enumerations
• US Bureau of the Census
• Population Growth
– Populations increase by births, decrease by
deaths, and change with migration
– Growth due to industrial activities
– Education and employment opportunities
– Availability of medical care
DESIGN POPULATION
• Population Growth Human population kinetics would
trace an S-shaped growth curve same
as spatially constrained microbial
populations.
Geometric increase
Straight-line increase
1st-order increase
saturation or maximum population
dy∕dt = ky(L − y )…(1)
population
growth or rate constant
The equation of a first-order chemical
reaction, possibly catalyzed by its own
reaction products
DESIGN POPULATION
• Three related equations apply closely to
characteristic portions of this growth curve:
a) a first-order progression for the terminal arc ec
of Fig. above,
b) a logarithmic or geometric progression for the
initial arc ad , and
c) an arithmetic progression for the transitional
intercept de
DESIGN POPULATION
For arc ec : dy ∕ d t = k ( L − y ) …..(2)
For arc ad : dy ∕ d t = ky ……………(3)
For arc de : dy ∕ d t = k ……………….(4)
If initial value of k , namely k0 , decreases in magnitude with time
or population growth rather
coefficient of retardance
………………(5)
Integrating Eqs. (1)–(4)
y = y0 at t = 0 and y = y at t = t for unchanging k values
For autocatalytic first-order progression (arc ac)
………………(6)
For first-order progression without catalysis (arc ec)
………………(7)
For geometric progression (arc ad)
………………(8)
For arithmetic progression (arc de)
………………(9)
Substituting Eq. (5) into Eqs. (2)–(4) yields the retardant expressions
For retardant first-order progression
………………(10)
For retardant, geometric progression
………………(11)
For retardant, arithmetic progression
………………(12)
DESIGN POPULATION
• Short-Term Population Estimates
– Estimates of midyear populations for current years
and the recent past are normally derived by
arithmetic from census data.
(a) computing per capita water consumption and
wastewater release and
(b) calculating the annual birth and general death rates
per 1000 inhabitants, or specific disease and death rates
per 100,000 inhabitants.
waterborne and otherwise water-related diseases
Short-Term Population Estimates
• For years between censuses or after the last census
– estimates are usually interpolated or extrapolated as
arithmetic or geometric progressions
– Arithmetic progression, from eq 9
ti and tj are the dates of two
sequent censuses
midyear date of the year for which a population estimate is wanted
midyear populations
Short-Term Population Estimates
• Geometric progression, from eq 8
Example: ESTIMATION OF POPULATION
As shown in Table 4.3 (given below), the
rounded census population of Miami, FL, was
249,000 in 1950 and 292,000 in 1960. Estimate
the midyear population (1) for the fifth
intercensal year and (2) for the ninth postcensal
year by (a) arithmetic and (b) geometric
progression. The two census dates were both
April 1
• bonded indebtedness
Ratio and correlation method
Graphical comparison method
Employment forecast or other utility
forecast
Simplified Method for Population
Forecasts
present population
future population probable rate of population increase per year
number of years considered
past population
Population Distribution and
Area Density
Water consumption ( use of water)
Domestic Consumption (use)
1. 41% to flushing toilets
2. 37% to washing and bathing
3. 6% to kitchen use
4. 5% to drinking water
5. 4% to washing clothes
6. 3% to general household cleaning
7. 3% to watering lawns and gardens
8. 1% to washing family cars
Variation or pattern of water demand
Demand at time t
Average value
Qt = kQavg
Multiplier for time
Variations are expressed as ratios to the average
values
• If existing water data are not available
