Chapter - 4
Exchange Rate Determination
Measuring Exchange Rate Movements
• An exchange rate measures the value of one currency in
units of another currency.
• When a currency declines in value, it is said to depreciate.
When it increases in value, it is said to appreciate.
• The percentage change (% ∆) in the value of a foreign
currency is computed as.
St – St-1
∆ = × 100
St-1
• A positive % ∆ represents appreciation
• A negative % ∆ represents depreciation.
Exchange Rate Equilibrium
• An exchange rate represents the price of a currency, which
is determined by the demand for that currency relative to
the supply for that currency.
Value of £
S: Supply of £
$1.60
equilibrium
$1.55 exchange rate
$1.50
D: Demand for £
Quantity of £
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
• Relative Inflation Rates
BD inflation ↑
/$ S1 ⇒ ↑ BD demand for USA
S0
r1 goods, and hence $.
r0
D1 ⇒ ↓ USA desire for BD
D0
goods, and hence the
Quantity of $ supply of $.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
• Relative Inflation Rates
USA inflation ↑
⇒ ↓ BD demand for USA
goods, and hence $.
⇒ ↑ USA desire for BD
goods, and hence the
supply of $.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
• Relative Interest Rates
BD interest rates ↑
⇒ ↓ BD demand for USA
bank deposits, and hence
$.
⇒ ↑ USA desire for BD bank
deposits, and hence the
supply of $.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
• Relative Interest Rates
USA interest rates ↑
⇒ ↑ BD demand for USA
bank deposits, and hence
$.
⇒ ↓ USA desire for BD bank
deposits, and hence the
supply of $.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
• A relatively high interest rate may actually reflect
expectations of relatively high inflation, which discourages
foreign investment.
• It is thus useful to consider real interest rates, which adjust
the nominal interest rates for inflation.
Nominal interest rate -
Real interest rate ≈
Inflation rate
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
Relative Income Levels
BD income level ↑
⇒ ↑ BD demand for USA
,S1
goods, and hence $.
⇒ No expected change for
the supply of $.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
Relative Income Levels
US income level ↑
⇒ ↑ U.S. demand for BD
goods, and hence .
⇒ No expected change for
the supply of .
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
Government Controls
• Governments may influence the equilibrium
exchange rate by:
– imposing foreign exchange barriers,
– imposing foreign trade barriers,
– intervening in the foreign exchange market, and
– affecting macro variables such as inflation, interest
rates, and income levels.
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
Expectations
• Foreign exchange markets react to any news that
may have a future effect.
• Institutional investors often take currency
positions based on anticipated interest rate
movements in various countries.
• Because of speculative transactions, foreign
exchange rates can be very volatile.
Speculating on Anticipated Exchange Rates
Chicago Bank expects the exchange rate of the New
Zealand dollar to appreciate from its present level of $0.50
to $0.52 in 30 days.
Borrows at 7.20%
for 30 days
1. Borrows 4. Holds
$20 million $20,912,320
Returns $20,120,000
Profit of $792,320
Exchange at Exchange at
$0.50/NZ$ $0.52/NZ$
Lends at 6.48%
2. Holds NZ$40 for 30 days 3. Receives
million NZ$40,216,000
Speculating on Anticipated Exchange Rates
Chicago Bank expects the exchange rate of the New
Zealand dollar to depreciate from its present level of $0.50
to $0.48 in 30 days.
Borrows at 6.96%
for 30 days
1. Borrows 4. Holds
NZ$40 million NZ$41,900,000
Returns NZ$40,232,000
Profit of NZ$1,668,000
Exchange at or $800,640 Exchange at
$0.50/NZ$ $0.48/NZ$
Lends at 6.72%
2. Holds $20 for 30 days 3. Receives
million $20,112,000
