Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction.
" National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic
Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and
Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/24650.
×
Save
Cancel
Introduction
Volcanoes are a key part of the Earth system. Most of Earth’s atmosphere,
water, and crust were delivered by volcanoes, and volcanoes continue to recycle
earth materials. Volcanic eruptions are common. More than a dozen are usually
erupting at any time somewhere on Earth, and close to 100 erupt in any year
(Loughlin et al., 2015).
Volcano landforms and eruptive behavior are diverse, reflecting the large
number and complexity of interacting processes that govern the generation,
storage, ascent, and eruption of magmas. Eruptions are influenced by the
tectonic setting, the properties of Earth’s crust, and the history of the volcano.
Yet, despite the great variability in the ways volcanoes erupt, eruptions are all
governed by a common set of physical and chemical processes. Understanding
how volcanoes form, how they erupt, and their consequences requires an
understanding of the processes that cause rocks to melt and change
composition, how magma is stored in the crust and then rises to the surface, and
the interaction of magma with its surroundings. Our understanding of how
volcanoes work and their consequences is also shared with the millions of people
who visit U.S. volcano national parks each year.
Volcanoes have enormous destructive power. Eruptions can change weather
patterns, disrupt climate, and cause widespread human suffering and, in the
past, mass extinctions. Globally, volcanic eruptions caused about 80,000 deaths
during the 20th century (Sigurdsson et al., 2015). Even modest eruptions, such
as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, have multibillion-dollar global
impacts through disruption of air traffic. The 2014 steam explosion at Mount
Ontake, Japan, killed 57 people without any magma reaching the surface. Many
volcanoes in the United States have the potential for much larger eruptions, such
as the 1912 eruption of Katmai, Alaska, the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th
century (Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012). The 2008 eruption of the unmonitored
Kasatochi volcano, Alaska, distributed volcanic gases over most of the
continental United States within a week (Figure 1.1).
Finally, volcanoes are important economically. Volcanic heat provides low-
carbon geothermal energy. U.S. generation of geothermal energy accounts for
nearly one-quarter of the global capacity (Bertani, 2015). In addition, volcanoes
act as magmatic and hydrothermal distilleries that create ore deposits, including
gold and copper ores.
Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent yet high-consequence
events. The impact of the largest possible eruption, similar to the super-eruptions
at Yellowstone, Wyoming; Long Valley, California; or Valles Caldera, New
Mexico, would exceed that of any other terrestrial natural event. Volcanoes pose
the greatest natural hazard over time scales of several decades and longer, and
at longer time scales they have the potential for global catastrophe (Figure 1.2).
While
Page 10
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic
Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and
Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/24650.
×
Save
Cancel
FIGURE 1.1 NASA Ozone Monitoring Instrument observations of the SO 2 cloud produced
by the August 7, 2008, eruption of Kasatochi (Aleutian Islands, Alaska) drifting over the
lower 48 states and Canada on August 15, 2008. Satellite observations such as these are
crucial for mitigating aviation hazards due to drifting volcanic clouds and for assessing the
impact of volcanic eruptions on Earth’s atmosphere and climate. SOURCE: Adapted
from Krotkov et al. (2010).
the continental United States has not suffered a fatal eruption since 1980 at
Mount St. Helens, the threat has only increased as more people move into
volcanic areas.
Volcanic eruptions evolve over very different temporal and spatial scales than
most other natural hazards (Figure 1.3). In particular, many eruptions are
preceded by signs of unrest that can serve as warnings, and an eruption itself
often persists for an extended period of time. For example, the eruption of
Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has continued since 1983. We also know the locations
of many volcanoes and, hence, where most eruptions will occur. For these
reasons, the impacts of at least some types of volcanic eruptions should be
easier to mitigate than other natural hazards.
Anticipating the largest volcanic eruptions is possible. Magma must rise to
Earth’s surface and this movement is usually accompanied by precursors—
changes in seismic, deformation, and geochemical signals that can be recorded
by ground-based and space-borne instruments. However, depending on the
monitoring infrastructure, precursors may present themselves over time scales
that range from a few hours (e.g., 2002 Reventador, Ecuador, and 2015 Calbuco,
Chile) to decades before eruption (e.g., 1994 Rabaul, Papua New Guinea).
Moreover, not all signals of volcanic unrest are immediate precursors to surface
eruptions (e.g., currently Long Valley, California, and Campi Flegrei, Italy).
Probabilistic forecasts account for this uncertainty using all potential eruption
scenarios and all relevant data. An important consideration is that the historical
record is short and biased. The instrumented record is even shorter and, for most
volcanoes, spans only the last few decades—a miniscule fraction of their lifetime.
Knowledge can be extended qualitatively using field studies of volcanic deposits,
historical accounts, and proxy data, such as ice and marine sediment cores and
speleothem (cave) records. Yet, these too are biased because they commonly do
not record small to moderate eruptions.
Understanding volcanic eruptions requires contributions from a wide range of
disciplines and approaches. Geologic studies play a critical role in reconstructing
the past eruption history of volcanoes,
Page 11
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic
Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and
Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/24650.
×
Save
Cancel
FIGURE 1.2 Qualitative comparison of consequences of selected natural hazards. Also
shown are the frequency of events with magnitudes similar to Mount St. Helens (1980) and
Vesuvius (79 AD), super-eruptions, and large igneous province eruptions. An exceptionally
rare but very large supervolcano and large igneous province eruptions would have global
consequences. In contrast, the maximum size of earthquakes limits their impacts. Tsunamis
can be generated by earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and asteroid impacts. The
slope of the curves, while qualitative, reflects the relationship between event size and
probability of occurrence: Earthquakes, and to a lesser extent floods and drought, saturate
at a maximum size. SOURCE: Adapted from Plag et al. (2015).
especially of the largest events, and in regions with no historical or directly
observed eruptions. Geochemical and geophysical techniques are used to study
volcano processes at scales ranging from crystals to plumes of volcanic ash.
Models reveal essential processes that control volcanic eruptions, and guide data
collection. Monitoring provides a wealth of information about the life cycle of
volcanoes and vital clues about what kind of eruption is likely and when it may
occur
