MAUSAM, 57, 4 (October 2006), 629-638

551.514.4 : 551.510.52 : 551.553.21

Instability of the troposphere associated with thunderstorms/nor'westers over

Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season

SAMARENDRA KARMAKAR and MD. MAHBUB ALAM*

Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Dhaka, Bangladesh
*Kulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh
(Received 9 March 2005)
e mail : malam60@[Link]; malam@[Link]

lkj &bl& ’kks/k Ik= esa Hkh"k.k xtZu ds lkFk rwQku@dkycSlk[kh cuus ls lacaf/kr ?kVukvksa ls lac)
fofHkUu fLFkjrk lwpdkadksa ds v/;;u dk iz;kl fd;k x;k gS ftlds vk/kkj ij caxykns’k esa xtZ ds lkFk
rwQku cuus ds vuqdwy fofHkUu lwpdkadksa dk pje eku Kkr fd;k tk ldsA fLFkjrk lwpdkadksa ds LFkkfud
forj.k dk v/;;u djus ds fy, caxykns’k rFkk mlds vklikl ds LVs’kukas ds vkadM+ksa dk Hkh vfHkdyu fd;k
x;k gSA caxykns’k esa dkycSlk[kh ds le; <kdk esa 0000 ;w- Vh- lh- ij ’kksYVj fLFkjrk lwpdkad ¼,l- vkbZ-½]
mUu;u lwpdkad ¼,y- vkbZ-½]vkslkad lwpdkad ¼Mh- ih- vkbZ-½] ’kq"d vfLFkj lwpdkad ¼Mh- vkbZ- vkbZ-½]fr;Zd
;ksx lwpdkad ¼lh- Vh-½]’kh"kZ;ksx lwpdkad ¼oh- Vh-½];ksxQyksa dk ;ksx lwpdkad ¼Vh- Vh-½] ÅtkZ lwpdkad
¼bZ- vkbZ-½]LosVlwpdkad ¼,l- MCY;w- vkbZ-½ vkSj ds--lwpdkad ¼ds- vkbZ-½ ds pje eku Øe’k% ≤ + 3° ls-] ≤0° ls-]
≤ -3° ls-] ≤ 0° ls-] ≥ 16° ls-] ≥ 24° ls-] ≥ 40° ls-] -6 twy @ xzke, >200 vkSj >34° ls-] gksus dk irk pyk gSaA

fofHkUu fLFkjrk okys lwpdkadkas ds LFkkfud forj.k ls ;g irk pyk gS fd caxykns’k vFkok iwohZ e/;
izns’k] fcgkj] if’pe caxky vkSj mlls lVs gq, caxykns’k esa Kkr fd, x, lwpdkadksa tSls%&,l- vkbZ-] ,y-
vkbZ-] Mh- ih- vkbZ-] Mh- vkbZ- vkbZ rFkk b- vkbZ-] ds _.kkRed eku bu {ks=ksa dh vR;f/kd vfLFkj fLFkfr dk
ladsr nsrs gSaA bu lwpdkadksa ds _.kkRed {ks=ksa dk fcgkj] if’pe caxky ,oa lehiorhZ mM+hlk rFkk caxykns’k
ds fuEu nkc {ks=ksa ds lkFk la;kstu vkSj 3&4 fd- eh- ;k blls vf/kd Å¡pkbZ ij mifjru ok;q esa pØokrh;
ifjlapj.k caxykns’k esa dkycSlk[kh gksus ds fy, vuqdwy fLFkfr;k¡ gSaA dkycSlk[kh ds ?kfVr gksus dh frfFk;ksa
dks lh- Vh-] oh- Vh-],l- MCY;w- vkbZ-] ds- vkbZ- vkSj Vh- Vh-] ds vf/kdre eku caxykns’k vFkok iwohZ e/; izns’k]
fcgkj]if’pe caxky rFkk lehiorhZ caxykns’k esa ik, x, gaS ftlls muds vR;f/kd vfLFkj {ks= gksus dk irk
pyrk gSA lkekU;r% dkycSlk[kh bu lwpdkadksa ds vf/kdre eku okys {ks=ksa esa vFkok iwoksrZ j@iwohZ Hkkx ds
vf/kdre eku okys {ks=ksa esa ?kfVr gqbZ gSaA
ABSTRACT. The present study is an attempt to study different stability indices in relation to the occurrence of
nor’westers in order to find out the critical values of different indices favourable for the formation of thunderstorms and
severe thunderstorms in Bangladesh. Computations have also been made for the stations in and around Bangladesh for
studying the spatial distribution of the stability indices. The critical values of Showalter Stability Index (SI), Lifted Index
(LI), Dew-point Index (DPI), Dry Instability Index (DII), Cross Total Index (CT), Vertical Total Index (VT), Total Totals
Index (TT), Energy Index (EI), SWEAT Index (SWI) and K-Index (KI) at 0000 UTC over Dhaka may be taken as
≤ + 3° C, ≤0° C, ≤ -3° C, ≤ 0° C, ≥ 16° C, ≥ 24° C, ≥ 40° C, -6 Joule/gm, >200 and >34° C respectively for the
nor’westers to occur in Bangladesh.
The spatial distribution of different Stability Indices reveals that maximum negative values of SI, LI, DPI, DII and
EI lie over the eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh indicating the highly unstable
area. The negative areas of the indices in combination with the low pressure area over Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining
Orissa and Bangladesh as well as the cyclonic circulation up to 3-4 km or above are favourable for the occurrence of
nor’westers in Bangladesh. Maximum values of CT, VT, SWI, KI and TT exist over eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar,
West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh indicating the highly unstable area. Normally, nor’westers have been found to
occur at the northeastern or eastern part of the area of maximum instability.
Key words – Showalter Stability Index, Lifted Index, Dew-point Index, Dry Instability Index, Cross Total Index,
Vertical Total Index, Total Totals Index, and K-Index.

1. Introduction such an indicator can be calculated hours prior to the

actual development of any convective activity, it acts as
A stability index is a measure of the potential timely identifier of areas within an air mass, which are
instability of the atmosphere over a specified region. Since capable of supporting convective activity. Once these

(629)
630 MAUSAM, 57, 4 (October 2006)

potential areas are identified, the severe weather forecaster order to find out the critical values of different indices
can then take a closer and more precise examination of favourable for the formation of thunderstorms in
these areas, incorporating all available parameters, tools, Bangladesh and those are suggested. The stability indices
and experience into making a final forecast (Thomson and those have been studied are Showalter Stability Index (SI),
Lin, 1985). Lifted Index (LI), Dew-point Index (DPI), Dry Instability
Index (DII), Cross Total Index (CT), Vertical Total Index
Over the years, studies of convective out-breaks have (VT), Total Totals Index (TT), SWEAT Index (SWI),
helped to isolate those altered during convective Energy Index (EI) and K-Index (KI). To calculate these
development. These careful isolations have led to the stability indices, the low-level data at 850 hPa has been
development of the many stability indices that are in use used. Computations have also been done at the stations in
by forecasters today. Since each storm outbreak may have and around Bangladesh for studying the spatial
its own varying environment, one index may prove to be distribution of the stability indices.
more accurate over another within a particular storm
setting.
2. Data source
Meso convective systems (MCS) are responsible for
much of the beneficial precipitation and most of the severe Real time rawinsonde data of 0000 UTC of the pre-
weather (heavy rains, high winds, hail, tornadoes and monsoon season during 1990-95 at different isobaric
lighting) that occur in Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon heights from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa at Dhaka, Chittagong
season (March-May). The accurate forecasting of severe and some Indian stations surrounding Bangladesh have
thunderstorms and tornadoes during this season remain a been collected from the GTS link of Storm Warning
challenging problems for operational meteorologists. Centre of Bangladesh Meteorological Department and
Newton (1963) has identified (i) potential instability, have been used for this study.
(ii) low-level moisture, (iii) sheared and veered
environmental winds and (iv) some triggering
mechanism(s) as favourable synoptic conditions for severe 3. Methodology of stability analyses
storm development. It is very important for forecasters to
be able to distinguish between severe and non-severe The stability indices have been investigated for a
thunderstorms. Extreme instability, strong vertical wind large number of severe thunderstorms in order to find out
shear and atmospheric instability are considered as the critical values of different indices favourable for the
deciding factors (McNulty, 1988; Johns and Doswell, formation of thunderstorms in Bangladesh. For these
1992). Whereas Goliger et al. (1997) have considered the stability indices, the low-level data at 850 hPa has been
following meteorological features necessary for tornado used. Computations have also been made for the stations
formation (i) a deep layer of mid tropospheric dry air in and around Bangladesh for studying the spatial
above a moist surface, (ii) steep moisture and temperature distribution of the stability indices. The following,
gradients, (iii) high surface temperature, (iv) low level stability indices are calculated by using the data at
convergence and upper air divergence, (v) vertical wind 0000 UTC for this study purpose.
shear and (vi) atmospheric instability. Stability indices,
determined from environmental soundings, have been Showalter Stability Index : SI = T500 – Tp500 (1)
used by forecasting offices to locate the area in which the
severe weather is likely to occur (Faubush et al., 1951; Lifted Index : LI = T500 – Tp500 (2)
Showalter, 1953; Galway, 1956; Miller, 1972). These
stability indices provide necessary conditions (but not The lifted Index can be used as a predictor of latent
sufficient) conducive to storm occurrence. instability (Galway, 1956). LI values less than -6° C can
be considered to be extreme with heavy to strong
thunderstorm potential (McNulty, 1995) in the US.
In Bangladesh, the meteorologists use some of the
stability indices to forecast severe thunderstorms, known Dew-point Index : DPI = T500 – T 'd500 (3)
as nor’westers or Kalbaishakhis. But except a few studies
(Chowdhury and Karmakar, 1986; Das et al. 1994) Dry Instability Index : DII = T600 – T '600 (4)
extensive studies have not so far been done on the stability
indices to determine the stability criteria. Cross Total Index : CT = Td850 – T500 (5)

In the present study, the stability indices have been The critical value of CT is 18 or more for the
investigated for a large number of severe thunderstorms in thunderstorms to occur.
 KARMAKAR & ALAM : INSTABILITY OF TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 631

TABLE 1 TABLE 3

Showalter Stability Index (SI) and its frequency Dew-point Index (DPI) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
Range of DPI (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
Range of SI (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
6 to 3 1 1.56
12 to 9 1 1.56
3 to 0 1 1.56
9 to 6 3 4.64
0 to -3 4 6.25
6 to 3 7 10.94
-3 to -6 16 25.00
3 to 0 19 29.69
-6 to -9 26 40.63
0 to -3 23 35.94
-9 to -12 11 17.19
-3 to -6 9 14.06
-12 to -15 4 6.25
-6 to -9 2 3.13
<-15 1 1.56
Total 64 100
Total 64 100

TABLE 2
TABLE 4
Lifted Index (LI) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
Dry Instability Index (DI I) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
Range of LI (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
Range of DII (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
9 to 6 1 1.56
12 to 9 1 1.56
6 to 3 2 3.13
9 to 6 2 3.13
3 to 0 10 15.63
6 to 3 1 1.56
0 to -3 22 34.38
3 to 0 3 4.69
-3 to -6 25 36.06
0 to -3 18 28.13
-6 to -9 4 6.25
-3 to -6 21 32.81
Total 64 100
-6 to -9 16 25.00
-9 to -12 2 3.13
Vertical Total Index : VT = T850 - T500 (6)
Total 64 100

Total Totals Index : TT = Td 850 + Td 850 – 2T500 (7)

The SWEAT Index : SWI = 12Td 850 + 20 (TT – 49)

+ 2f 8 + f 5 + 125 (S + 0.2) Where,
(8)
Td 850, Td 700 = 850 and 700 hPa dew–point
None of the terms may be negative. Hence if temperature respectively
Td850 < 0, the first term is set to zero; If TT < 49, the in °C
second term is set to zero; and the last term is set to zero if
any of the following conditions are not met : α8 between T850, T700, T600, T500 = 850, 700, 600 and 500 hPa
temperature respectively
130° and 250°, α5 between 210° and 310°, α5 - α8 > 0,
in °C
and both f8, f5 ≥ 15 knots.
T ′d 500 = dew-point along a pseudo-
Energy Index as defined by Darkow (1968) is :
adiabat to 500 hPa
EI = MSE500 – MSE850 (9)
Tp 500 = temperature of a parcel
lifted dry adiabatically from
The K-Index (George, 1960) can be computed by
850 hPa to its condensation
level and moist adiabatically
KI = (T850 – T500) + Td 850 – (T700 – Td 700) (10)
to 500 hPa
632 MAUSAM, 57, 4 (October 2006)

TABLE 5 TABLE 7

Cross Total Index (CT) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka Total Totals Index (TT) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka

Range of CT (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total Range of TT (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
-10 to 0 3 2.78 < 32 2 1.85
0 - 10 11 10.19 32 - 36 4 3.70
10 - 16 21 19.44 36 - 38 3 2.78
16 - 18 14 12.96 38 - 40 4 3.70
18 - 20 10 9.26 40 - 42 9 8.33
20 - 22 22 20.37 42 - 44 10 9.26
22 - 24 15 13.89 44 - 46 14 12.96
24 - 26 9 8.33 46 - 48 21 19.44
26 - 28 3 2.78 48 - 50 13 12.04
Total 108 100 50 - 52 11 10.19
52 - 54 12 11.11
TABLE 6 54 - 56 2 1.85

Vertical Total Index (VT) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka 56 - 58 3 2.78
Total 108 100
Range of VT (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total
< 22 1 0.93
22 - 24 4 3.70
TABLE 8
24 - 26 17 15.74
Energy Index (EI) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
26 - 28 23 21.30
28 - 30 28 25.93 Range of EI (J/gm) Frequency (f) % of the total

30 - 32 18 16.67 12 to 6 6 5.56

32 - 34 14 12.96 6 to 0 13 12.04

34 - 36 3 2.78 0 to -6 30 27.78

Total 108 100 -6 to -12 36 33.33

-12 to -18 18 16.67
-18 to -24 4 3.70
T ′ 600 = surface temperature along a
-24 to -30 1 0.93
pseudo-adiabat to 600 hPa
Total 108 100
ƒ8, ƒ5 = 850 and 500 hPa wind speed
respectively in knots

S = Sin (α5 - α8)

been determined for Dhaka, Chittagong and some Indian
α5, α8 = 500 and 850 hPa wind stations to study the degree of instability of the
direction respectively. atmosphere for the formation of thunderstorms/
nor’westers in Bangladesh. The different stability indices
MSE850, MSE500 = Moist Static Energy at 850 viz., SI, LI, DPI, DII, CT, VT, TT, EI, SWI and KI with
and 500 hPa level. their frequencies are tabulated in Tables 1 to 10
respectively. Attempts have been made to find out the
4. Results and discussion critical values of the indices for the formation of
thunderstorms and to study the spatial distribution of these
Different stability indices of the atmosphere prior indices for delineating the area of unstable atmosphere.
to the occurrence of nor’westers (i.e., at 0000 UTC) have The results are described in the subsequent sub-sections.
 KARMAKAR & ALAM : INSTABILITY OF TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 633

TABLE 9

SWEAT Index (SWI) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka

Nor'westers Severe nor'westers with tornadic Intensity

Range of SWI Frequency (f) % of the total Range of SWI Frequency (f) % of the total

50-100 6 5.56 < 100 3 18.75

100-200 28 25.93 100-200 5 31.25
200-300 32 29.63 200-300 1 6.25
300-400 28 25.93 300-400 2 12.50
400-500 8 7.41 > 400 5 31.50
500-600 4 3.70
600-700 2 1.85
Total 108 100 Total 16 100

4.1. Stability indices and their frequencies over this stability may be thought of being destroyed and
Dhaka in relation to the occurrence of instability develops because of the incoming solar
nor’westers in Bangladesh radiation as well as moisture influx from the Bay of
Bengal extending to a greater height in the afternoon. It is
(i) Showalter Stability Index (SI) and its frequency seen from the table that 10 out of 64 (15.63%) nor'westers
occur when LI is 0 to +3° C. The table shows that 51 out
From Table 1 it is clear that for most of the events of 64 (i.e., 79.68%) nor’westers occur when the LI < 0° C.
the SI was in between 3 to -3° C at 0000 UTC. There were The table also shows that maximum number of
11 out of 64 (i.e., 17.19%) nor’westers has been occurred nor’westers occur in the range of LI is –3 to –6° C. As
when SI above 3° C at 0000 UTC, which indicates that the per the criteria of LI, no convective activity is possible
atmosphere was highly stable. For these events the when LI is above +2° C or above, showers are possible
instabilities might have been occurred due to insolation as when LI ranges between 0 and –2°C, severe
well as the moisture influx extended to a greater height. thunderstorms are likely when LI ranges between –2 to
The table also shows that 53 out of 64 (i.e., 82.81%) of –4° C and tornadoes when LI is ≤ –4. It has been seen that
nor’westers occur when the SI < 3° C. It is interesting to 3 out of 5 severe nor’westers (60%) with marginal
note that that the atmosphere is treated as unstable when tornadic intensity occur when LI is < –3° C and 2 out of 5
SI is below 0° C. But the percentage of occurrence is severe nor’westers (40%) with marginal tornadic intensity
suggesting us to consider the critical value of SI is < 3° C when LI is 1 to –3° C.
at 0000 UTC over Dhaka. From the intensity analysis it
has been found that 3 out of 5 severe nor’westers (60%) From the above discussion, it may be concluded that
with marginal tornadic intensity occur when SI is < -3° C thunderstorms are likely to occur over Bangladesh when
and 2 out of 5 severe nor’westers (40%) with marginal LI is ≤ 0 and severe nor’westers with tornadic intensity
tornadic intensity when SI is 0 to –2° C. Also as per the are possible when LI < –3° C over Bangladesh.
criteria of SI, tornadoes are suspected when SI ranges
between –3 and –6° C or below. This criterion does not (iii) Dew- point Index (DPI) and its frequency
always hold good for Bangladesh.
Table 3 shows that 6 out of 64 (i.e., 9.38%)
thunderstorms / nor’westers occur when the DPI is above
(ii) Frequency of Lifted Index (LI) 0° C at 0000 UTC, which indicates the stable atmosphere.
It is seen from the table that 58 out of 64 (90.62%)
Table 2 shows that 3 out of 64 (i.e., 4.69%) nor'westers occur when DPI is ≤ 3° C. The table also
thunderstorms / nor’westers occur when the LI is above 3° shows that maximum number of nor’westers occur
C at 0000 UTC, which indicates the stable atmosphere. when DPI ranges between –6 to –9° C (26 out of 64
This can be attributed to the fact that the atmosphere may i.e., 40.63%). Therefore, DPI = –3° C may be taken
remain stable in the morning, but as the day progresses, as the critical value for the occurrence of nor’westers in
634 MAUSAM, 57, 4 (October 2006)

TABLE 10 about 20.37% of the total number of nor’westers. About

67.59% nor’westers occur when the CT is ≥ 16° C. The
K- Index (KI) and its frequency at 0000 UTC at Dhaka
table also shows that 84.25% nor’westers occur when CT
Range of KI (°C) Frequency (f) % of the total range is 10-26° C. Therefore, the critical value of CT may
20 - 22 1 0.95 be taken as CT ≥ 16° C. For severe nor’westers of
tornadic intensity, 25% occur when CT < 10° C and
28 - 30 2 1.90
62.50% of severe nor’westers occur when CT > 20° C.
30 - 32 4 3.81 Therefore, CT ≥ 20° C may be taken as the critical value
32 - 34 4 3.81 for the severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity to occur in
Bangladesh.
34 - 36 11 10.48
36 - 38 17 16.19 (vi) Vertical Total Index (VT) and its frequency
38 - 40 13 12.38
40 - 42 13 12.38
Table 6 shows that maximum nor’westers occur in
the range of VT = 28-30° C, which is about 25.93% of the
42 - 44 16 15.24 total number of nor’westers. About 92.59% nor’westers
44 - 46 7 6.67 occur when the VT range is 24-34° C. The table
46 - 48 5 4.76
also shows that 95.37% of nor’westers occur when
VT > 24° C. The critical value of VT may be taken as
48 - 50 3 2.86
VT ≥ 24° C. For severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity
50 - 52 2 1.90 31.25% occur when VT < 28° C, 68.75% occur when
52 - 54 4 3.81 VT > 28° C and 31.25% of severe nor’westers occur when
54 - 56 1 0.95 VT > 30° C. Therefore, VT ≥ 28° C may be taken as the
critical value for the severe nor’westers of tornadic
56 - 58 2 1.90 intensity to occur in Bangladesh.
Total 105 100
(vii) Total Totals Index (TT) and its frequency
Bangladesh. It has also been seen from the analysis of DPI
that severe thunderstorms with tornadic intensity are likely Table 7 shows that maximum nor’westers occur in
to occur when DPI is < –4° C (4 out of 5 i.e., 80%) and the range of TT = 46 - 48° C, which is about 19.44% of
20% severe nor’westers occur when DPI is > –2° C over the total number of nor’westers. About 87.96%
Dhaka in the morning. nor’westers occur when the range of TT is 40 – 58° C.
The critical value of TT may be taken as TT ≥ 40° C. For
(iv) Dry Instability Index (DII) and its frequency severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity, 68.75% occur
when TT > 47° C and 56.25% of severe nor’westers occur
Table 4 shows that 7 out of 64 (i.e., 10.94%) when TT > 49.50° C. Therefore, TT ≥ 47° C may be taken
thunderstorms/nor’westers occur when the DII is above as the critical value for the severe nor’westers of tornadic
0° C at 0000 UTC over Dhaka, which indicates the stable intensity to occur in Bangladesh. In one case (1 out of 16)
atmosphere. It is seen from the table that 57 out of 64 of severe nor’wester with tornadic intensity, the TT has
(89.06%) nor'westers occur when DII ≤ 0° C. The table been found to be 31.30° C, which is much lower value.
also shows that maximum nor’westers occur when DII This low value may be attributed to the fact that the TT
ranges between –3 and –6 (21 out of 64 nor’westers i.e., may be low in the morning and as the day time progress
32.81%). Therefore, DII ≤ 0° C may be taken as the the atmosphere is more heated and more moisture is
critical value for the occurrence of nor’westers in coming from the Bay of Bengal. As a result the
Bangladesh. It has also been seen from the analysis of DII atmosphere becomes more unstable and so nor’westers
that severe thunderstorms with tornadic intensity are likely might have occurred.
to occur when DII is < –4° C (3 out of 5 i.e., 60%) and
40% severe nor’westers occur when DII is > –2° C at (viii) Energy Index (EI) and its frequency
Dhaka in the morning.
Table 8 shows that 19 out of 108 nor’westers
(v) Cross Total Index (CT) and its frequency (17.59%) occur when EI is above 0 Joule/gm and 89 out
108 nor’westers (82.41%) occur when EI is below 0
From Table 5 it is observed that the maximum Joule/gm. 30 out of 108 nor’westers (27.78%) occur
nor’westers occur in the range of CT = 20-22° C, which is when EI ranges between 0 and –6 Joule/gm. Maximum
 KARMAKAR & ALAM : INSTABILITY OF TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 635

Fig. 1 Fig. 2
Figs. 1&2. Spatial distribution of SI and LI on 14 April 1990, the date of occurrence of nor’wester in Bangladesh

number of nor’westers (36 out of 108 i.e., 33.33%) occur out of 108 (94.44%) nor’westers occur when SWI is
when EI ranges between –6 and –12 Joule/gm. From the ≥ 100. But maximum nor’westers (74 out of 108 i.e.,
discussion, it may be concluded that EI = –6 can be taken 68.52%) occur when SWI is > 200. So, SWI > 200 may be
as the critical value of EI at Dhaka for nor’westers to taken as the critical value for nor’westers to occur in
occur in Bangladesh. 18.75% of severe nor’westers (3 out Bangladesh. Table 9 also indicates that severe
of 16) occur when EI is 0 to –6 and 50% of severe nor’westers may occur when SWI is < 200. But it clear
nor’westers occur when EI ≤ –6. Therefore, EI ≤ –6 may that severe nor’westers have greater possibility to occur
be taken as the critical value of EI over Dhaka for the when SWI is > 200 and severe nor’westers with tornadic
occurrence of severe nor’westers with tornadic intensity in intensity occur in Bangladesh when SWI > 300.
Bangladesh. Therefore, SWI > 300 may be considered as the critical
value for the formation of severe nor'westers with tornadic
It has also been observed that severe nor’westers intensity over Bangladesh.
with tornadic intensity occurred even though the
atmosphere remains stable with EI of 0 - 7 (5 out of 16
i.e., 31.25%) at 0000 UTC and it goes against the existing (x) K- Index (KI) and its frequency
theory. This means that the stable atmosphere in the Table 10 reveals that most of the values of KI ranges
morning changes into unstable atmosphere in the between 34 and 48, when 78.10% nor’westers occur
afternoon due to incoming solar radiation, favourable in Bangladesh. It can also be seen from the table
surface and upper air synoptic conditions and moisture that maximum nor’westers occur in the range of
influx from the south. KI = 36 - 38° C, which is about 16.19% of the total
number of nor’westers. About 66.67% nor’westers occur
(ix) SWEAT Index (SWI) and its frequency when the range of KI is 34 - 44° C. The table also
shows that 89.52% of nor’westers occur when KI > 34° C.
It is seen from the Table 9 that 6 out of 108 The critical value of KI may be taken as KI ≥ 34° C.
nor’westers (5.56%) occur when SWI is ≤ 100 and 102 For severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity 86.67% occur
636 MAUSAM, 57, 4 (October 2006)

28 28
Max
Max
26 26

24 24

22 22

20 20

18
18

16
16

14
14

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Fig. 3 Fig. 4

28 28

Max Max

26 26

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18

16 16

14 14

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94

Fig. 5 Fig. 6

28 28
Min Max

26 26

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18

16 16

14 14

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
Fig. 7 Fig. 8
Figs. 3-8. Spatial distribution of CT, VT, TT, SWI, EI and KI on 14 May 1992, the date of occurrence of nor'wester

when KI > 28° C, 73.33% occur when KI > 37°C and 4.2. Spatial distribution of different instability
53.33% of severe nor’westers occur when KI > 42° C. indices
Therefore, KI ≥ 37° C may be taken as the critical value
for the severe nor’westers of tornadic intensity to occur in The different stability indices of the troposphere on
Bangladesh. the dates of occurrence of a number of nor’westers have
 KARMAKAR & ALAM : INSTABILITY OF TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 637

been computed by using the rawinsonde data of Dhaka, (ii) The critical values of different stability indices
Chittagong and a number of Indian stations surrounding viz., SI ≤ 3° C, LI ≤ 0° C, DPI ≤ -3° C, DII ≤ 0° C,
Bangladesh at 0000 UTC and their spatial distributions CT ≥ 16° C, VT ≥ 24° C, TT ≥ 40° C, EI = -6, SWI > 200
have been studied critically. and KI ≥ 34° C may be considered to occur nor'westers in
Bangladesh.
The spatial distributions of SI and LI on the dates of
occurrence of nor’westers are given in Figs. 1&2. It has (iii) The critical values of different stability indices
been seen from the analyses of these Stability Indices that viz., SI ≤ -3° C, LI ≤ -3° C, DPI ≤ -4° C, DII ≤ -4° C,
maximum negative values lie over the eastern Madhya CT ≥ 20° C, VT ≥ 28° C, TT ≥ 47° C, EI = -6, SWI > 300
Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh and KI ≥ 37° C may be considered to occur severe
indicating the highly unstable area. The negative areas of nor'westers with tornadic intensity in Bangladesh.
the Indices in combination with the low pressure area over
Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining Orissa and Bangladesh (iv) Maximum negative values of SI, LI, DPI, DII and EI
as well as the cyclonic circulation up to 3-4 km or above and maximum values of CT, VT, TT, SWI and KI lie over
are favourable for the occurrence of nor’westers in the eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and
Bangladesh. Normally, nor’westers have been found to adjoining Bangladesh indicating the highly unstable area.
occur at the northeastern or eastern part of the area of The negative areas of the indices in combination with the
maximum instability. low pressure area over Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining
Orissa and Bangladesh as well as the cyclonic circulation
The spatial distributions of CT, VT, TT, SWI and KI up to 3-4 km or above are favourable for the occurrence of
are given in Figs. 3-6 & Fig. 8 respectively. From the nor’westers in Bangladesh. Normally, nor’westers have
analyses of these indices, it has been found that an area of been found to occur at the northeastern or eastern part of
maximum values of these indices exists over eastern the area of maximum instability.
Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and adjoining
Bangladesh indicating the highly unstable area. Acknowledgements
Nor’westers have also been found to occur at the
northeastern or eastern part of the area of unstable area. The authors are thankful to the Director of
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for
The spatial distribution of EI is shown in Fig. 7. It providing the relevant data for the study. Thanks are also
has been found from the analysis of EI that the area of due to Mr. Abdul Mannan, Assistant Meteorologist,
minimum EI lies over eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Mr. S. M. Quamrul Hassan, Assistant Meteorologist and
West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh, where the surface Mrs. Masuda Mohi, Teliprinter Operator of BMD for their
low and low-level circulation exist as has been observed help in the preliminary compilation of data.
from the analyses of surface and pilot charts (not shown
here). The nor'westers have been found to occur at the References
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