BUSINESS STATISTICS
Fundamentals of Hypothesis
Testing
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What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a
population parameter:
population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is μ = $42
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The Null Hypothesis, H0
States the claim or assertion to be tested
Example: The average number of TV sets in
U.S. Homes is equal to three ( H0 : μ 3 )
Is always about a population parameter,
not about a sample statistic
H0 : μ 3 H0 : X 3
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The Null Hypothesis, H0
(continued)
Begin with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true
Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be rejected
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The Alternative Hypothesis, H1
Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )
Challenges the status quo
Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be proven
Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to prove
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Hypothesis Testing Process
Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random sample
Is X 20 likely if μ = 50?
If not likely, Suppose
the sample
REJECT mean age Sample
Null Hypothesis is 20: X = 20
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Level of Significance,
Defines the unlikely values of the sample
statistic if the null hypothesis is true
Defines rejection region of the sampling
distribution
Is designated by , (level of significance)
Typical values are 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10
Is selected by the researcher at the beginning
Provides the critical value(s) of the test
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Level of Significance
and the Rejection Region
Level of significance = Represents
critical value
H0: μ = 3 /2 /2
H1: μ ≠ 3 Rejection
Two-tail test 0 region is
shaded
H0: μ ≤ 3
H1: μ > 3
Upper-tail test 0
H0: μ ≥ 3
H1: μ < 3
Lower-tail test 0
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Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
Hypothesis
Tests for
Known Unknown
(Z test) (t test)
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Z Test of Hypothesis for the
Mean (σ Known)
Convert sample statistic ( X ) to a Z test statistic
Hypothesis
Tests for
σKnown
Known
(Z test)
The test statistic is:
X μ
Z
σ
n
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Critical Value
Approach to Testing
For a two-tail test for the mean, σ known:
Convert sample statistic ( X ) to test statistic (Z
statistic )
Determine the critical Z values for a specified
level of significance from a table or
computer
Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the
rejection region, reject H0 ; otherwise do not
reject H0
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Two-Tail Tests
H0: μ = 3
There are two
H1: μ 3
cutoff values
(critical values),
defining the
regions of /2 /2
rejection
3 X
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
-Z 0 +Z Z
Lower Upper
critical critical
value value
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6 Steps in
Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null hypothesis, H0 and the
alternative hypothesis, H1
2. Choose the level of significance, , and the
sample size, n
3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and
sampling distribution
4. Determine the critical values that divide the
rejection and nonrejection regions
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6 Steps in
Hypothesis Testing
(continued)
5. Collect data and compute the value of the test
statistic
6. Make the statistical decision and state the
managerial conclusion. If the test statistic falls
into the nonrejection region, do not reject the
null hypothesis H0. If the test statistic falls into
the rejection region, reject the null hypothesis.
Express the managerial conclusion in the
context of the problem
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Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV
sets in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)
1. State the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
H0: μ = 3 H1: μ ≠ 3 (This is a two-tail test)
2. Specify the desired level of significance and the
sample size
Suppose that = 0.05 and n = 100 are chosen
for this test
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Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
3. Determine the appropriate technique
σ is known so this is a Z test.
4. Determine the critical values
For = 0.05 the critical Z values are ±1.96
5. Collect the data and compute the test statistic
Suppose the sample results are
n = 100, X = 2.84 (σ = 0.8 is assumed known)
So the test statistic is:
X μ 2.84 3 .16
Z 2.0
σ 0.8 .08
n 100
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Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
6. Is the test statistic in the rejection region?
= 0.05/2 = 0.05/2
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
Reject H0 if
Z < -1.96 or -Z= -1.96 0 +Z= +1.96
Z > 1.96;
otherwise
do not Here, Z = -2.0 < -1.96, so the
reject H0 test statistic is in the rejection
region
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Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
6(continued). Reach a decision and interpret the result
= 0.05/2 = 0.05/2
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
-Z= -1.96 0 +Z= +1.96
-2.0
Since Z = -2.0 < -1.96, we reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that the
mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3
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p-Value Approach to Testing
p-value: Probability of obtaining a test
statistic more extreme ( ≤ or ) than the
observed sample value given H0 is true
Also called observed level of significance
Smallest value of for which H0 can be
rejected
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p-Value Approach to Testing
(continued)
Convert Sample Statistic (e.g., X ) to Test
Statistic (e.g., Z statistic )
Obtain the p-value from a table or computer
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
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p-Value Example
Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is = 3.0?
X = 2.84 is translated
to a Z score of Z = -2.0
/2 = 0.025 /2 = 0.025
P(Z 2.0) 0.0228
0.0228 0.0228
P(Z 2.0) 0.0228
p-value
= 0.0228 + 0.0228 = 0.0456
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
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p-Value Example
(continued)
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
Here: p-value = 0.0456 /2 = 0.025 /2 = 0.025
= 0.05
0.0228 0.0228
Since 0.0456 < 0.05,
we reject the null
hypothesis
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
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Connection to Confidence Intervals
For X = 2.84, σ = 0.8 and n = 100, the 95%
confidence interval is:
0.8 0.8
2.84 - (1.96) to 2.84 (1.96)
100 100
2.6832 ≤ μ ≤ 2.9968
Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized
mean (3.0), we reject the null hypothesis at = 0.05
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One-Tail Tests
In many cases, the alternative hypothesis
focuses on a particular direction
This is a lower-tail test since the
H0: μ ≥ 3
alternative hypothesis is focused on
H1: μ < 3 the lower tail below the mean of 3
H0: μ ≤ 3 This is an upper-tail test since the
alternative hypothesis is focused on
H1: μ > 3
the upper tail above the mean of 3
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Lower-Tail Tests
H0: μ ≥ 3
There is only one H1: μ < 3
critical value, since
the rejection area is
in only one tail
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
-Z Z
0
μ X
Critical value
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Upper-Tail Tests
H0: μ ≤ 3
There is only one
critical value, since H1: μ > 3
the rejection area is
in only one tail
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
Z Zα
0
_
X μ
Critical value
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Example: Upper-Tail Z Test
for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bills have
increased, and now average over $52 per
month. The company wishes to test this
claim. (Assume = 10 is known)
Form hypothesis test:
H0: μ ≤ 52 the average is not over $52 per month
H1: μ > 52 the average is greater than $52 per month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
manager’s claim)
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Example: Find Rejection Region
(continued)
Suppose that = 0.10 is chosen for this test
Find the rejection region: Reject H0
= 0.10
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
0 1.28
Reject H0 if Z > 1.28
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Review:
One-Tail Critical Value
Standardized Normal
What is Z given = 0.10? Distribution Table (Portion)
0.90 0.10
Z .07 .08 .09
= 0.10
1.1 .8790 .8810 .8830
0.90
1.2 .8980 .8997 .9015
z 0 1.28
1.3 .9147 .9162 .9177
Critical Value
= 1.28
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Example: Test Statistic
(continued)
Obtain sample and compute the test statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the following
results: n = 64, X = 53.1 (=10 was assumed known)
Then the test statistic is:
Xμ 53.1 52
Z 0.88
σ 10
n 64
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Example: Decision
(continued)
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0
= 0.10
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
1.28
0
Z = 0.88
Do not reject H0 since Z = 0.88 ≤ 1.28
i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the
mean bill is over $52
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p -Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to
(assuming that μ = 52.0)
p-value = 0.1894
Reject H0 P( X 53.1)
= 0.10
53.1 52.0
P Z
0 10/ 64
P(Z 0.88) 1 0.8106
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
1.28
Z = 0.88
0.1894
Do not reject H0 since p-value = 0.1894 > = 0.10
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Errors in Making Decisions
Type I Error
Reject a true null hypothesis
Considered a serious type of error
The probability of Type I Error is
Called level of significance of the test
Set by the researcher in advance
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Errors in Making Decisions
(continued)
Type II Error
Fail to reject a false null hypothesis
The probability of Type II Error is β
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Type I & II Error Relationship
Type I and Type II errors cannot happen at
the same time
Type I error can only occur if H0 is true
Type II error can only occur if H0 is false
If Type I error probability ( ) , then
Type II error probability ( β )
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TYPE I AND II ERROR
Factors Affecting Type II Error
All else equal,
β when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value
β when
β when σ
β when n
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