DISCRETE VARIABLE with KEY

1. A biased die with four faces is used in a game. A player pays 10 counters to roll the die. The table
below shows the possible scores on the die, the probability of each score and the number of
counters the player receives in return for each score.

Score 1 2 3 4

Probability 1 1 1 1
2 5 5 10
Number of counters player receives 4 5 15 n

Find the value of n in order for the player to get an expected return of 9 counters per roll.

[4]

1. Let X be the number of counters the player receives in return.

E(X) = p(x) × x = 9 (M1)
1  1  1  1 
   4     5     15     n  = 9 (M1)(A1)
2  5  5   10 
1
 n=3
10
 n = 30 (A1) (C4)
[4]

2. The quality control department of a company making computer chips knows that 2% of the chips
are defective. Use the normal approximation to the binomial probability distribution, with a
continuity correction, to find the probability that, in a batch containing 1000 chips, between 20
and 30 chips (inclusive) are defective.
[7]

2. Let n = number of chips = 1000,

p = the probability that a randomly chosen chip is defective = 0.02.
Hence, the mean np = (1000) (0.02) = 20 and the
variance = np(1 – p) = (1000) (0.02) (0.98) = 19.6. (A1)(A1)
Suppose X is the normal random variable that approximates the
binomial distribution.
The X  N (20, 19.6). (M1)(M1)
 19.5  20 30.5  20 
Thus p(19.5  X  30.5) = p  Z   (M1)(M1)
 19.6 19.6 
= p(–0.11  Z  2.37)
= 0.5349 (A1)
Note: Line before last should be p(–0.113  Z  2.37) = 0.536.
Accept 0.535 or 0.536.
If student’s work is not shown but there is evidence that he/she
used the calculator to find the answer, accept the answer.
[7]

1
3. A supplier of copper wire looks for flaws before despatching it to customers.
It is known that the number of flaws follow a Poisson probability distribution
with a mean of 2.3 flaws per metre.
(a) Determine the probability that there are exactly 2 flaws in 1 metre of the wire.

(b) Determine the probability that there is at least one flaw in 2 metres of the wire.
[3]

3. Note: Throughout the whole question, students may be using their graphic display calculators
and should not be penalized if they do not show as much work as the marking scheme.
(a) Let X denote the number of flaws in one metre of the wire.
(2.3) 2
Then E(X) = 2.3 flaws and P(X = 2) = e–2.3 (M1)(M1)
2!
= 0.265. (A1) 3
Note: Award (C3) for a correct answer from a graphic display
calculator.

(b) Let Y denote the number of flaws in two metres of wire.

Then Y has a Poisson distribution with mean E(Y) = 2 × 2.3 = 4.6
flaws for 2 metres. (M1)
Hence, P(Y  1) = 1 – P(Y = 0) = 1 – e–4.6 (M1)
= 0.990 (3 sf) (A1) 3
–4.6
Note: Accept 1 – e .
[6]
4. The continuous random variable X has probability density function f (x) where
 e  ke kx , 0  x 1
fk (x) = 
 0, otherwise

(a) Show that k = 1.

(b) What is the probability that the random variable X has a value that lies between
1 and 1 ? Give your answer in terms of e.
4 2
(c) Find the mean and variance of the distribution. Give your answers exactly, in terms of e.
The random variable X above represents the lifetime, in years, of a certain type of battery.
(d) Find the probability that a battery lasts more than six months.
A calculator is fitted with three of these batteries. Each battery fails independently of the other
two. Find the probability that at the end of six months
(e) none of the batteries has failed;
(f) exactly one of the batteries has failed.

1
4. (a) For f (x) to be a probability distribution function,  0
f ( x ) dx  1 .
1
  0
(e – ke kx )dx = 1 (M1)

2
 
 ex  e
kx

1
0 =1 (M1)
e–e +1 k
=1 (A1)
e=e  k
k = 1 (AG) 3
Thus f (x) = e – ex, 0  x  1

(b) 
1/ 2

1/ 4
(e – e x )dx  ex  e x  1/ 2
1/ 4 
e
2
e
 e 4 e
4
(M1)
e
=  e4 e (A1)
4

1 1
=  ( e – e x ) dx   (ex  xe
x
(c) )dx (M1)
0 0
1
 ex 2  1 e
= 
 2 0
   0
xe x dx 
2
 [ xe x – e x ]10 (M1)

e
= –1 (A1)
2
2
1 e 
Variance =  0
x 2 (e – e x )dx   – 1
 2 
(M1)
1
 ex 3  e 
2
=   e ( x  2 x  2)   – 1
x 2
(M1)
 3 0  2 
2 e2
=2– e– +e–1
3 4
e e2
=1+  (A1)
3 4

 1
(d) p(battery lasts more than 6 months) = p  x  
 2
1
=  1/ 2
(e – e x ) dx (M1)

= [ex  e x ]11 / 2
e
= e or 0.290(3sf) (A1)
2
(e) p(no battery failed) = p(all lasted more than 6 months) (M1)
3
 e
=  e   or 0.0243 (3 sf) (A1)
 2

 3 
2
e  e
(f) p(exactly one battery failed) =  1  e   e   (M1)
 
2 2  2 
 0.179 (3 sf) (A1)
[17]

3
5. In a game a player rolls a biased tetrahedral (four-faced) die. The probability of each possible
score is shown below.

Score 1 2 3 4

Probability 1 2 1 x
5 5 10
Find the probability of a total score of six after two rolls.
[3]

5.  P( X  x)  1
all x

1 2 1
Therefore,   +x=1
5 5 10
3
Therefore, x= (A1)
10
1 1 2 3 
P(scoring six after two rolls) =     2     (M1)
 10 10   5 10 
1
= (A1) (C3)
4
[3]

6. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given by

x
P(X = x) = k  2  , for x = 0, 1, 2, ......
3
Find the value of k. [3]

6. Since X is a random variable,  P( X  x)

all x
=1

2 3
2 2 2
Therefore, k + k    k    k + ......... = 1 (M1)
3 3 3
 
 
 1  =1
k (M1)
 2
1  
 3
1
k= (A1) (C3)
3
[3]

7. A satellite relies on solar cells for its power and will operate provided that at least one of the cells
is working. Cells fail independently of each other, and the probability that an individual cell fails
within one year is 0.8.
(a) For a satellite with ten solar cells, find the probability that all ten cells fail within one year.
(b) For a satellite with ten solar cells, find the probability that the satellite is still operating at
the end of one year.
(c) For a satellite with n solar cells, write down the probability that the satellite is still

4
 operating at the end of one year. Hence, find the smallest number of solar cells required so
that the probability of the satellite still operating at the end of one year is at least 0.95.
[9]

7. (a) P(all ten cells fail) = 0.810 = 0.107. (M1)(A1)

(b) P(satellite is still operating at the end of one year)
= 1 – P (all ten cells fail within one year) (M1)
= 1 – 0.107
= 0.893. (A1)

(c) P(satellite is still operating at the end of one year)

= 1 – 0.8n. (C1)
We require the smallest n for which 1 – 0.8n  0.95. (M1)
Thus, 0.8n  0.05
n
5
   20
4
log 20
n = 13.4 (M1)(A1)
log 1.25
Therefore, 14 solar cells are needed. (C1)
[9]

8. In a school, of the students travel to school by bus. Five students are chosen at random. Find
the probability that exactly 3 of them travel to school by bus.

[3]
8. Let p be the probability of choosing a student who travels to school by bus.
Let X be the random variable “the number of students who travel to
school by bus.” (M1)
1
Then X ~ B(n, p) with n = 5 and p =
3

 5  1   2 
3 2

Therefore P(X = 3) =      (using formulae and statistical tables) (A1)

 3  3   3 
40
= or 0.165 (A1)
243
[3]
9. X is a binomial random variable, where the number of trials is 5 and the probability of success of
each trial is p. Find the values of p if P(X = 4) = 0.12.

[3]

9. If X ~ Bin (5, p) and P(X = 4) = 0.12 then

5 4
  p (1 – p) = 0.12 (M1)
 4
5p5 – 5p4 + 0.12 = 0 (A1)
p = 0.459 (3 s.f ) or 0.973 (3 s.f) (G1) (C3)

5
10. (a) Patients arrive at random at an emergency room in a hospital at the rate of 15 per hour
throughout the day. Find the probability that 6 patients will arrive at the emergency room
between 08:00 and 08:15.
(b) The emergency room switchboard has two operators. One operator answers calls for
doctors and the other deals with enquiries about patients. The first operator fails to answer
1% of her calls and the second operator fails to answer 3% of his calls. On a typical day, the
first and second telephone operators receive 20 and 40 calls respectively during an
afternoon session. Using the Poisson distribution find the probability that, between them,
the two operators fail to answer two or more calls during an afternoon session.
[8]

10. (a) Let X be the number of patients arriving at the emergency room
15 in
a 15 minute period. Rate of arrival in a 15 minute period = = 3.75. 4 (M1)
(3.75) 6 –3.75
P(X = 6) = e (M1)
6!
= 0.0908 (A1)
OR
P(6 patients) = 0.0908 (G2) 3

(b) Let F1, F2 be random variables which represent the number of

failures to answer telephone calls by the first and the second
operator, respectively.
F1 ~ P0 (0.01 × 20) = P0 (0.2). (A1)
F2 ~ P0 (0.03 × 40) = P0 (1.2). (A1)
Since F1 and F2 are independent
F1 + F2 ~ P0 (0.2 + 1.2) = P0(1.4) (M1)
P(F1 + F2  2) = 1 – P(F1 + F2 = 0) – P(F1 + F2 = 1) (M1)
= 1 – e–1.4 – (1.4)e–1.4 = 0.408 (A1)
OR
P(F1 + F2  2) = 0.408 (M0)(G2) 5
[8]

2
11. A coin is biased so that when it is tossed the probability of obtaining heads is . The coin is
3
tossed 1800 times. Let X be the number of heads obtained. Find
(a) the mean of X;
(b) the standard deviation of X. [3]

2
11. n = 1800, p =
3
(a) E(X) = np = 1200 (A1) (C1)
1
(b) SD(X) = np (1  p)  1200  = 20 (M1)(A1) (C2)
3
[3]

6
 12. When John throws a stone at a target, the probability that he hits the target is 0.4.
He throws a stone 6 times.
(a) Find the probability that he hits the target exactly 4 times.
(b) Find the probability that he hits the target for the first time on his third throw. [6]

6
12. (a) Probability =   × (0.4)4 × (0.6)2 (M1)(A1)
 
4
 432 
= 0.138  accept or 0.13824  (A2) (C4)
 3125 
 18 
(b) Probability = (0.6)2 × 0.4 = 0.144  or  (M1)(A1) (C2)
 125 
[6]

13. Two children, Alan and Belle, each throw two fair cubical dice simultaneously. The score for
each child is the sum of the two numbers shown on their respective dice.
(a) (i) Calculate the probability that Alan obtains a score of 9.
(ii) Calculate the probability that Alan and Belle both obtain a score of 9.
(b) (i) Calculate the probability that Alan and Belle obtain the same score,
(ii) Deduce the probability that Alan’s score exceeds Belle’s score.

(c) Let X denote the largest number shown

4 on the four dice.
 x
(i) Show that for P(X  x) =   , for x = 1, 2,... 6
6

(ii) Copy and complete the following probability distribution table.

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15 671
P(X = x) 1296 1296 1296

(iii) Calculate E(X).

[13]

1
13. (a) (i) P(Alan scores 9) = (= 0.111) (A1)
9
2
1  1 
(ii) P(Alan scores 9 and Belle scores 9) =     
 9   81 
(= 0.0123) (A1) 2

7
 2 2 2 2
 1   2   6   2 
(b) (i) P(Same score) =   +   + … +   + … +  
 36   36   36   36 
2
 1
 
+  36  (M1)
73
= 648 (= 0.113) (A1)

1  73 
(ii) P(A>B) = 1 –  (M1)
2  648 
575
= (= 0.444) (A1) 4
1296

x
(c) (i) P(One number  x) = (with some explanation) (R1)
6
4
 x
P(X  x) = P(All four numbers  x) =   (M1)(AG)
6
4 4
 x  x – 1
(ii) P(X = x) = P(X  x) – P(X  x – l) =   –  
6  6 
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 1 15 65 175 369 671
1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296
(A1)(A1)(A1)
Note: Award (A3) if table is not completed but calculation of
E(X) in part (iii) is correct.

1 15 671
(iii) E(X) = 1 × +2× +…+6× (M1)
1296 1296 1296
6797
= (= 5.24) (A1) 7
1296
[13]

14. The random variable X is Poisson distributed with mean  and satisfies
P(X = 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1).
(a) Find the value of , correct to four decimal places.
(b) For this value of  evaluate P(2  X  4).
[6]

14. (a) The given condition implies that

3
e–  = e–  +  e–  (M1)
6

8
  3 – 6 – 6 = 0 (A1)
   2.8473 (G1) 3

(b) P(2  X  4) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) (M1)

2 – 3 –
e e
P(X = 2) = = 0.235, P(X = 3) = = 0.223,
2 6
4 –
e
P(X = 4) = = 0.159 (G1)
24
Hence P(2  X  4) = 0.617 (A1)
OR
P(2  X  4) = P(X  4) – P(X  1) (M1)
= 0.8402 – 0.2231 (G1)
= 0.617 (G1) 3
[6]

15. Give your answers to four significant figures.

A machine produces cloth with some minor faults. The number of faults per metre is a random
variable following a Poisson distribution with a mean 3. Calculate the probability that a metre of
the cloth contains five or more faults. [4]

15. Note: Accept answers to an accuracy of at least 4

significant figures – do not apply AP.
P(X = 0) = 0.04979, P(X = 1) = 0.14936, P(X = 2) = 0.22404,
P(X = 3) = 0.22404, P(X = 4) = 0.16803 (M1)
Sum = 0.81526 (A1)
OR
P(X  4) = 0.8153 (accept 0.8152) (G2)
Hence, P(X  5) = l – 0.8153 = 0.1847 (accept 0.1848) (M1)(A1)
OR
P(X  5) = 1 – P(X  4) = 0.1847 (G4)
[4]

16. When a boy plays a game at a fair, the probability that he wins a prize is 0.25. He plays the game
10 times. Let X denote the total number of prizes that he wins. Assuming that the games are
independent, find
(a) E(X)
(b) P(X  2). [6]

16. (a) X is B(10, 0.25) (seen or implied) (R1)

so E(X) = 10 × 0.25 = 2.5 (M1)(A1) (C3)

10  10 
(b) P(X  2) = (0.75)10 +   (0.75)9(0.25) +   (0.75)8(0.25)2 (M1)(A1)
1 2
= 0.526 (A1) (C3)
[6]

9
17. Two typists were given a series of tests to complete. On average, Mr Brown made 2.7 mistakes per
test while Mr Smith made 2.5 mistakes per test. Assume that the number of mistakes made by any
typist follows a Poisson distribution.
(a) Calculate the probability that, in a particular test,
(i) Mr Brown made two mistakes;
(ii) Mr Smith made three mistakes;
(iii) Mr Brown made two mistakes and Mr Smith made three mistakes.
(b) In another test, Mr Brown and Mr Smith made a combined total of five mistakes. Calculate
the probability that Mr Brown made fewer mistakes than Mr Smith.
[11]

17. B ~ P(2.7), S ~ P(2.5)

e –2.7 2.7 
2

(a) (i) P(B = 2) = = 0.245 (M1)(A1)

2

e –2.5 2.5
3

(ii) P(S = 3) = = 0.214 (M1)(A1)

6
(iii) The two events are independent.
P((B = 2)  (S = 3)) = P(B = 2) × P(S = 3) (M1)
= 0.214 × 0.245
= 0.0524 (A1) 6
e –5.2 (5.2) 5
(b) P(B + S = 5) =  0.175 (A1)
120
e –2.7 2.7  e –2.5 2.5
2 3

P((B = 2)  (S = 3)) = ×  0.245 × 0.214 = 0.0524

2 6
e –2.7 2.7 
1
e -2.5 (2.5) 4
P((B = 1)  (S = 4)) = ×  0.181 × 0.133
1 24
= 0.0242 (A1)
e –2.7
2.7 0
e –2.5
2.5
5

P((B = 0)  (S = 5)) = ×  0.067 × 0.067

1 120
= 0.0045 (A1)
0.0524  0.0242  0.0045 0.0811
P(B < S) =  (M1)
0.175 0.175
= 0.464 (or 0.463) (A1) 5
[11]
18. On a television channel the news is shown at the same time each day. The probability that Alice
watches the news on a given day is 0.4. Calculate the probability that on five consecutive days,
she watches the news on at most three days.

[6]

18. METHOD 1
X is Binomial
n=5 p = 0.4 (A1)(A1)
P(X  3) = 1 – P(X = 4) – P(X = 5) (M1)
= 1 – 0.0768 – 0.01024 (A1)(A1)

10
 = 0.91296... (0.913 to 3 sf) (A1) (C6)

METHOD 2
P(X  3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) (M1)
= 0.07776 + 0.2592 + 0.3456 + 0.2304 (A2)
= 0.91296... (0.913 to 3 sf) (A1) (C6)
[6]

19. The random variable X has a Poisson distribution with mean λ.

(a) Given that P(X = 4) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3), find the value of λ.
(b) Given that λ = 3.2, find the value of
(i) P(X  2);
(ii) P(X  3  X  2).
[8]

e   4 e   2 e   3
19. (a)   (M1)
4! 2! 3!
λ – 4λ – 12 = 0  λ = 6
2
(A1)(A1) 3

(b) (i) P(X ≥ 2) = 1 – e–3.2 – e–3.2 × 3.2 = 0.829 (M1)(A1)

OR
P(X ≥ 2) = 0.829 (G2)

P(2  X  3)
(ii) P(X ≤ 3X  2) = (M1)
P( X  2)

e 3.2  3.2 2 e 3.2  3.2 3


= 2 6 (A1)
1  4 . 2 e  3 .2
= 0.520 (A1)

OR
P(X ≤ 3X ≥ 2) = 0.520 (G3) 5
[8]

20. The random variable X has a Poisson distribution with mean λ. Let p be the probability that X
takes the value 1 or 2.
(a) Write down an expression for p.
(b) Sketch the graph of p for 0  λ  4.
(c) Find the exact value of λ for which p is a maximum.
[7]

2
20. (a) p = λe–λ + e– (A1) 1
2

11
 (b)


0 
4 (A1) 1
Note: Award (A1) for a maximum point in [0, 4]; sketch need not
be accurate.

dp 2
(c) = e–λ + λ(–e–) + e– × λ + (–e–) (M1)(A1)
d 2
 2 
= e–λ 1   (A1)
 2 
dp  2 
pmax when = 0  1   = 0 (M1)
d  2 
 λ2 = 2
  = 2 (do not accept 1.41) (A1) 5
Note: If no working shown, award (A2) for an answer of 1.41
obviously obtained from a GDC.
[7]

21. Let X be a random variable with a Poisson distribution such that Var(X) = (E(X))2 – 6.
(a) Show that the mean of the distribution is 3.
(b) Find P(X  3).

Let Y be another random variable, independent of X, with a Poisson distribution such that
E(Y) = 2.
(c) Find P(X + Y < 4).
(d) Let U = X + 2Y.
(i) Find the mean and variance of U.
(ii) State with a reason whether or not U has a Poisson distribution.
[10]

21. Note: In this question do not penalize answers given to more than three significant figures.
(a) Let  = E(X) = Var(X). Then λ = λ2 – 6 (M1)

12
 1  25
Therefore   (M1)
2
and since λ must be positive λ = 3. (A1) 3

(b) Then P(X  3) = 0.647

(A1) (N1) 1

(c) E(X + Y) = 3 + 2 = 5. Since X and Y are independent X + Y

has a Poisson distribution with mean = 5. (M1)
Hence P(X + Y  4) = 0.265.
(A1) (N1) 2
Note: Award (N0) if P (X + Y  4) is given instead.

(d) (i) E(U) = E(X) + 2E(Y) = 7 (A1)

Var(U) = Var(X) + 4Var(Y) = 11 (A1)
(ii) U does not have a Poisson distribution (A1)
because Var(U)  E(U). (R1) 4
[10]
22. A discrete random variable X has its probability distribution given by

P(X = x) = k(x + 1), where x is 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.

1
(a) Show that k =
15
(b) Find E(X).
[6]

22. (a) Using  P( X  x)  1 M1

 k × 1 + k × 2 + k × 3 + k × 4 + k × 5 = 15k = 1 M1A1
1
k= AG N0 3
15

(b) Using E(X) =  xP( X  x) (M1)

3 5
=0× 1 +l× 2 +2× +3× 4 +4× A1
15 15 15 15 15
=  2 2 , 2.67 
8
A1 N2 3
3 3 
[6]
23. The random variable X has a Poisson distribution with mean 4. Calculate
(a) P(3  X  5);
(b) P(X  3);
(c) P(3  X < 5X  3). [6]

13
23. (a) P(3  X  5) = P(X  5) – P(X  2) (M1)
= 0.547 A1 N2 2
(b) P(X  3) = 1 – P(X  2) (M1)
= 0.762 A1 N2 2
P(3  X  5)  0.547 
(c) P(3  X  5|X  3) =   (M1)
P(X  3)  0.762 
= 0.718 A1 N2 2
[6]
10
24. Consider the 10 data items x1, x2, ... x10. Given that x
i 1
i
2
= 1341 and the standard deviation is

6.9, find the value of x . [6]

24. Var( X )  6.92  47.61 (M1)(A1)

10

x 2
i
Using Var( X )  E( X )  (E( X )) or s  i 1
 x2
2 2 2
(M1)
10
1341
47.61   x2 (A1)
10

x 2  86.49 (A1)
x   9.3 (Do not penalize the absence of the minus) (A1) (C6)
[6]
26. The number of car accidents occurring per day on a highway follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 1.5.
(a) Find the probability that more than two accidents will occur on a given Monday.
(b) Given that at least one accident occurs on another day, find the probability that more than
two accidents occur on that day. [6]

25 X  Po (m)
EITHER
 m2 
P ( X  2)  e  m 1  m   (M1)
 2 

 1 0.404  0.596
 m  2.30 (A1)
P( X  2)  e2.3 (1  2.3) (M1)
 0.3309  0.331 (3 s.f.) (A1) (N4)

OR
Solving the equation cdf (m , 2)  1  0.404  0.596 (M1)
m  2.30 (A1)
cdf (2.3, 1)  0.3309  0.331(3 s.f.) (M1)(A1) (N4)

14
 [4]
26. The number of car accidents occurring per day on a highway follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 1.5.
(a) Find the probability that more than two accidents will occur on a given Monday.
(b) Given that at least one accident occurs on another day, find the probability that more than
two accidents occur on that day. [6]

26. (a) Let A be the number of accidents which occur in a day

Using a Poisson distribution in an inequality M1
P(A > 2) = 1  P(A  2)
 1 .5 2 
= 1  e1.5 1  1.5  
 (A1)
 2 
= 0.191 A1 N2

(b) P(A  1) = 1  P(A = 0)

= 0.776(869...) (A1)
Indication of conditional probability as a ratio:
P A  2  0.191153 ...
or M1
P A  1 0.776 869 ...
P(A > 2 | A  1) = 0.246 A1 N1
[6]

27. Andrew shoots 20 arrows at a target. He has a probability of 0.3 of hitting the target. All shots are
independent of each other. Let X denote the number of arrows hitting the target.
(a) Find the mean and standard deviation of X.
(b) Find
(i) P(X = 5);
(ii) P(4  X  8).
Bill also shoots arrows at a target, with probability of 0.3 of hitting the target. All shots are
independent of each other.
(c) Calculate the probability that Bill hits the target for the first time on his third shot.
(d) Calculate the minimum number of shots required for the probability of at least one shot
hitting the target to exceed 0.99.
[19]

27. (a) X ~ B (20, 0.3) (A1)

Mean = 20  0.3 = 6 A1
Variance = 20  0.3  0.7 (M1)
= 4.2 (A1)
Standard deviation = 2.05 A1

15
  20 
(b) (i) P X  5     0.35  0.715 (M1)
5
= 0.179 A2 N3
(ii) P(4  X  8) = P(X  8)  P(X  3) M1
= 0.780 (accept 0.779) A2 N2

(c) Probability = 0.7  0.7  0.3 M1A1

= 0.147 A1 N2

(d) METHOD 1
P(at least 1 hit) = 1  0.7n (A1)
For solving 1  0.7n = 0.99 (or 1  0.7n > 0.99) M1
n = 12.9... (A1)
n > 12.9... (M1)
ie n = 13 A1 N2
METHOD 2
P (at least 1 hit) =1  0.7n (A1)
Substituting either n = 12 or n = 13 (M1)
1  0.712 = 0.986... A1
1  0.713 = 0.990... A1
n = 13 R1 N2
Note: Award the final R1 only if the preceding
two A marks have been awarded.
[19]

28. The random variable X follows a Poisson distribution. Given that P(X  1) = 0.2, find
(a) the mean of the distribution;
(b) P(X  2).
[6]

28. (a) P(X  1) = 0.2

P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.2 (M1)
 e + e = 0.2
 e (1 + )=0.2 A1
  = 2.99 A2 N2

(b) P(X  2) = 0.424 (accept 0.425) A2 N2

[6]

16
29. A bag contains a very large number of ribbons. One quarter of the ribbons are yellow and the rest
are blue. Ten ribbons are selected at random from the bag.
(a) Find the expected number of yellow ribbons selected.
(b) Find the probability that exactly six of these ribbons are yellow.
(c) Find the probability that at least two of these ribbons are yellow.
(d) Find the most likely number of yellow ribbons selected.
(e) What assumption have you made about the probability of selecting a yellow ribbon?
[12]

29. (a) Let X be the number of yellow ribbons in the sample

 1
X ~ B 10 ,  (M1)
 4
 E(X) = 2.5 A1 N2

10   1   3 
6 4

(b) P(X = 6) =       (M1)

 6  4   4 
= 0.0162 A1 N2

30. In an experiment, a trial is repeated n times. The trials are independent and the probability p of
success in each trial is constant. Let X be the number of successes in the n trials. The mean of X is
0.4 and the standard deviation is 0.6.
(a) Find p.
(b) Find n. [6]

(c) P(X  2) = 1  P(X  1) = 1  (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)) (M1)

10 9
3  1  3 
= 1    10     (A1)
4  4  4 
= 0.756 A1 N3

10  x
10   1   3 
x

(d) P(X = x) =      
 x  4   4 
Using GDC (or by substituting values of x into above) it is
possible to calculate relevant probabilities. (M1)

x P(X = x)
1 0.188
2 0.282
3 0.250
A2
From these values the most likely number of yellow ribbons is 2. A1 N0

17
 (e) The probability that a ribbon is yellow remains constant. R1
[12]

30. (a) X has a binomial distribution (M1)

0.4 = np 0.36 = np (1  p) A1A1
Attempting to solve. (M1)
p = 0.1 A1 N3

(b) n=4 A1 N1
Note: Allow FT only on integer values of n
for p between 0 and 1.
[6]
31. A biology test consists of seven multiple choice questions. Each question has five possible
answers, only one of which is correct. At least four correct answers are required to pass the test.
Juan does not know the answer to any of the questions so, for each question, he selects the answer
at random.
(a) Find the probability that Juan answers exactly four questions correctly.
(b) Find the probability that Juan passes the biology test. [6]

 1
31. (a) X ~ B7,  (A1)
 5

7  1   4 
4 3

P(X = 4) =         (M1)
 4  5   5 
 448 
= 0.0287   A1 N3
 15625 

(b) P(pass) = P(X  4) OR 1  P(X  3) (or equivalent) A2

 521 
= 0.0333   A1 N2
 15625 
Note: Accept 0.0334
[6]

32. The time, T minutes, spent each day by students in Amy’s school sending text messages may be
modelled by a normal distribution.
30 of the students spend less than 10 minutes per day.
35 spend more than 15 minutes per day.
(a) Find the mean and standard deviation of T.
The number of text messages received by Amy during a fixed time interval may be modelled by a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 6 messages per hour.

18
 (b) Find the probability that Amy will receive exactly 8 messages between 16:00 and 18:00 on
a random day.
(c) Given that Amy has received at least 10 messages between 16:00 and 18:00 on a random
day, find the probability that she received 13 messages during that time.
(d) During a 5-day week, find the probability that there are exactly 3 days when Amy receives
no messages between 17:45 and 18:00.
[18]

32. (a) T ~ N(, 2)

Finding the z-values (M1)
z1 = 0.5244, z2 = 0.3853 (A1)(A1)
10   =  0.5244, 15   = 0.3853 M1
 = 12.9,  = 5.50 A1A1 N2N2
Note: Do not accept any other values that
come from premature rounding.

(b) Let X be the random variable “number of text messages in 2 hours”

e –12 12 
8
P(X = 8) = M1A1
8!
= 0.0655 A1 N3

(c) Let X be the random variable “number of text messages in 2 hours”

P(X = 13) = 0.1055... (A1)
P(X  10) = 0.7576... (A1)
P(X = 13 | X  10) M1
P X  13  P X  13 
  
P X  10   1  P X  9 
(A1)

= 0.139 A1 N4
Note: Do not accept any other value that
comes from premature rounding.

(d) Let Y be the random variable “number of text messages in

15 minutes”
Let D be the random variable “number of days with no
messages received”
Y ~ Po(1.5) (A1)
P(Y = 0) = 0.2231... (A1)
D ~ B(5, 0.2231...) M1
P(D = 3) = 0.0670 A1 N1
Note: 0.067 incurs an accuracy penalty.
[18]

19
33. The times taken for buses travelling between two towns are normally distributed with a mean of
35 minutes and standard deviation of 7 minutes.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen bus completes the journey in less than 40
minutes.
(b) 90 of buses complete the journey in less than t minutes. Find the value of t.
(c) A random sample of 10 buses had their travel time between the two towns recorded. Find
the probability that exactly 6 of these buses complete the journey in less than 40 minutes.
[11]

 5
33. (a) P(T < 40) = P  Z   (M1)
 7
= 0.762 A1 N2
Note: Accept 0.761 from tables.

(b) Stating P(T < t) = 0.90 or sketching a labelled diagram A1

t  35
 1.2815 ... (M1)(A1)
7
t = (1.2815...)(7) + 35 (M1)
= 44.0 (min) A1 N4

(c) Recognizing binomial distribution with correct parameters

or stating X ~ B (10, 0.762...) (A1)(A1)
10 
P(X = 6) =    0.762...  0.237...
6 4
(M1)
 
6

= 0.131 A1
Notes: Accept 0.132 or 0.133.
Award FT for their value of p from
(a) but they must have n =10.
[11]
34. The number of bus accidents that occur in a given period of time has a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 0.6 accidents per day.
(a) Find the probability that at least two accidents occur on a randomly chosen day.
(b) Find the most likely number of accidents occurring on a randomly chosen day.
Justify your answer.
(c) Find the probability that no accidents occur during a randomly chosen seven-day week.
[11]

34. (a) P(X  2) = 1  [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)] (M1)(A1)

= 0.122 A2
(b) EITHER
0 .6 x
Using P(X = x) = e0.6  to generate a decreasing
x!

20
 sequence of at least three numbers M1A1
OR
Sketching an appropriate graph of P(X = x) against x M1A1
OR
Finding P(X = 0) = e0.6 and stating that P(X = 0) > 0.5 M1A1
OR
μ
Using P(X = x) P(X = x  1)  where  < 1 M1A1
x
Hence P(X = x) is maximised when x = 0 and so the most
likely number of accidents is zero. R1 N0

(c) METHOD 1
Y ~ Po(4.2) (A1)
P(Y = 0) = e4.2 (= 0.0150) M1A1 N1
METHOD 2
P(X = 0) = e0.6 (= 0.5488...) (A1)
P(Y = 0) = (e0.6)7 (= (0.5488...)7) (binomial approach) M1
= e4.2 (= 0.0150) A1 N1
[10]
35 On a particular road, serious accidents occur at an average rate of two per week and can be
modelled using a Poisson distribution.
(a) (i) What is the probability of at least eight serious accidents occurring during a
particular four-week period?
(ii) Assume that a year consists of thirteen periods of four weeks. Find the probability
that in a particular year, there are more than nine four-week periods in which at least
eight serious accidents occur.
(10)
(b) Given that the probability of at least one serious accident occurring in a period of n weeks is
greater than 0.99, find the least possible value of n, n +.
[18]

35. (a) (i) X  Po (2) for one week

 X  Po (8) for 4 week (A1)
 P(X  8) = 1 – P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = 7) (M1)(A1)

8  8 2 83 8 4 85 8 6 8 7 
= 1 e 1  8        (A1)
 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7 ! 
= 0.547 A1 N5
(ii) X  B(13, 0.547) (M1)(A1)
P(X  9) = P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12) + P(X = 13) (M1)
13! 13! 13!
= 0.547 10  0.453 3  0.547 11  0.453 2  0.547 12  0.453  0.547 13 (A1)
10!3! 11!2! 12 !1!

21
 = 0.0894 A1 N5

(b) X  Po (2n)
2 n
P (no serious accidents) = e
1 – P (no serious accidents) = P (at least one serious accident)
2 n
= 1 –e (M1)(A1)
1 – P (no serious accidents)  0.99
2 n
1 –e  0.99 A1
2 n
 e  0.01 (A1)
 –2n  ln 0.01 (A1)
ln 0.01
n
2
 n  2.30 (M1)
n=3 A1 N5
[18]
36. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is defined by
P(X = x) = cx(5 − x), x = 1, 2, 3, 4.
(a) Find the value of c.
(b) Find E(X).
[6]

36. (a) Using  P X  x   1 (M1)

4c + 6c + 6c + 4c = 1 (20c = 1) A1

c
1
 0.05  A1 N1
20

(b) Using E(X) =  xP  X  x  (M1)

= (1  0.2) + (2  0.3) + (3  0.3) + (4  0.2) (A1)

= 2.5 A1 N1
Notes: Only one of the first two marks can be
implied.
Award M1A1A1 if the x values are averaged
only if symmetry is explicitly mentioned.
[6]

37. The lifts in the office buildings of a small city have occasional breakdowns. The breakdowns at
any given time are independent of one another and can be modelled using a Poisson distribution
with mean 0.2 per day.
(a) Determine the probability that there will be exactly four breakdowns during the month of
June (June has 30 days).

22
 (b) Determine the probability that there are more than 3 breakdowns during the month of June.
(c) Determine the probability that there are no breakdowns during the first five days of June.
(d) Find the probability that the first breakdown in June occurs on June 3 rd.
(e) It costs 1850 Euros to service the lifts when they have breakdowns. Find the expected cost
of servicing lifts for the month of June.
(f) Determine the probability that there will be no breakdowns in exactly 4 out of the first 5
days in June.
[13]

37. (a) mean for 30 days: 30  0.2 = 6. (A1)

6 4 6
P X  4   e  0.134 (M1)A1 N3
4!

(b) P(X > 3) = 1  P(X  3) = 1  e6(1 + 6 + 18 + 36) = 0.849 (M1)A1 N2

(c) EITHER
mean for five days: 5  0.2 = 1 (A1)
P(X = 0) = e1 (= 0.368) A1 N2
OR
mean for one day: 0.2 (A1)
P(X = 0) = (e0.2 )5 = e1 (= 0.368) A1 N2

(d) Required probability = e0.2  e0.2  (1  e0.2) M1A1

= 0.122 A1 N3

(e) Expected cost is 1850  6 = 11100 Euros A1

(f) On any one day P(X = 0) = e 0.2

Therefore,   e
 5  0.2
 1  e   0.407
4  0.2
M1A1 N2
1
[13]
38. Over a one month period, Ava and Sven play a total of n games of tennis.
The probability that Ava wins any game is 0.4. The result of each game played is independent of
any other game played.
Let X denote the number of games won by Ava over a one month period.
(a) Find an expression for P(X = 2) in terms of n.
(b) If the probability that Ava wins two games is 0.121 correct to three decimal places, find the
value of n.
[6]

23
38. (a) X ~ B(n, 0.4) (A1)
n
Using P(X = x) =   0.4  0.6 
x n x
(M1)
r  
 n n2  n n  1
P(X = 2) =   0.4 0.6
2
 0.42 0.6n2  A1 N3
r  2 

(b) P(X = 2) = 0.121 A1

Using an appropriate method (including trial and error) to solve
their equation. (M1)
n = 10 A1 N2
Note: Do not award the last A1 if any other
solution is given in their final answer.
[6]
39. The distance travelled by students to attend Gauss College is modelled by a normal distribution
with mean 6 km and standard deviation 1.5 km.
(a) (i) Find the probability that the distance travelled to Gauss College by a randomly
selected student is between 4.8 km and 7.5 km.
(ii) 15 of students travel less than d km to attend Gauss College. Find the value of d.
At Euler College, the distance travelled by students to attend their school is modelled by a normal
distribution with mean  km and standard deviation  km.
(b) If 10 of students travel more than 8 km and 5 of students travel less than 2 km, find the
value of  and of .
The number of telephone calls, T, received by Euler College each minute can be modelled by a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 3.5.
(c) (i) Find the probability that at least three telephone calls are received by Euler College
in each of two successive one-minute intervals.
(ii) Find the probability that Euler College receives 15 telephone calls during a
randomly selected five-minute interval.
[21

39. (a) (i) P(4.8 < X < 7.5) = P(0.8 < Z < 1) (M1)
= 0.629 A1 N2
Note: Accept P(4.8  X  7.5) = P(0.8  Z  1).
(ii) Stating P(X < d) = 0.15 or sketching an appropriately labelled
diagram. A1
d 6
  1.0364 ... (M1)(A1)
1 .5
d = (1.0364...)(1.5) + 6 (M1)
= 4.45 (km) A1 N4

(b) Stating both P(X > 8) = 0.1 and P(X < 2) = 0.05 or sketching an
appropriately labelled diagram. R1
Setting up two equations in  and  (M1)

24
 8 =  + (1.281...) and 2 =   (1.644...) A1
Attempting to solve for  and  (including by graphical means) (M1)
 = 2.05 (km) and  = 5.37 (km) A1A1 N4
Note: Accept  = 5.36, 5.38.

(c) (i) Use of the Poisson distribution in an inequality. M1

P(T  3) = 1  P(T  2) (A1)
= 0.679... A1
Required probability is (0.679...)2 = 0.461 M1A1 N3
Note: Allow FT for their value of P(T  3).
(ii)  ~ Po(17.5) A1

e 17.5 17 .5

15

Pτ 15   (M1)

15!
= 0.0849 A1 N2
[21]
40. (a) The independent random variables X and Y have Poisson distributions and Z = X +Y. The
means of X and Y are  and  respectively. By using the identity
n
P Z  n    P  X  k  P Y  n  k 
k 0

show that Z has a Poisson distribution with mean ( +).

(6)
(b) Given that U1, U2, U3, … are independent Poisson random variables each having mean m,
n
use mathematical induction together with the result in (a) to show that U
r 1
r has a

Poisson distribution with mean nm.

[12]

λkn
 nk
P(Z = n) =  e   e 
 λ
40. (a) M1A1
k 0 k! n  k !
e      n
n!
=
n!
 k !n  k ! λ
k 0
k
nk M1A1

e     
=    n A1
n!
This shows that Z is Poisson distributed with mean ( + ). R1

(b) The result is (trivially) true for n = 1. A1

k
Assuming it to be true for n = k, ie U r ~ Po km M1
r 1

k 1 k
Consider U  U
r 1
r
r 1
r  U k 1 M1A1

which, using (a) is Po(km + m) ie Po([k + 1]m) A1

25
 Hence proved by induction since true for n = k  true for
n = k + 1 and we have shown true for n = 1. R1
[12]

41. The lengths of a particular species of lizard are normally distributed with a mean length of 50 cm
and a standard deviation of 4 cm. A lizard is chosen at random.
(a) Find the probability that its length is greater than 45 cm.
(b) Given that its length is greater than 45 cm, find the probability that its length is greater than
55 cm.
[6]

41. (a) P(X > 45) = P(Z < 1.25) (M1)

= 0.894 A1 N2

(b) Using conditional probability P(X > 55 | X > 45) (A1)

P X  55  X  45 
 (A1)
P X  45 

P X  55   0.1056 ... 
  
P X  45   0.8943 ... 
(A1)

FT numerator = 1  (their answer to a).

= 0.118 A1 N2

42. The discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

k
 , x  1, 2, 3, 4
P(X = x) =  x
0, otherwise

Calculate
(a) the value of the constant k;
(b) E(X).

[6]

 1 1 1
42. (a) k 1     = 1 (M1)(A1)
 2 3 4
12
k= (= 0.48) (A1) (C3)
25
12 6 4 3
(b) E(X) = 1 ×  2  3  4 (M1)(A1)
25 25 25 25
48
= ( = 1.92) (A1) (C3)
25
[6]

26
43. In a game a player pays an entrance fee of $n. He then selects one number from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and
rolls three standard dice.
If his chosen number appears on all three dice he wins four times his entrance fee.
If his number appears on exactly two of the dice he wins three times the entrance fee.
If his number appears on exactly one die he wins twice the entrance fee.
If his number does not appear on any of the dice he wins nothing.
(a) Copy and complete the probability table below.

Profit ($) −n n 2n 3n

75
Probability
216
(4)

 17 n 
(b) Show that the player’s expected profit is $   .
 216 
(2)
(c) What should the entrance fee be so that the player’s expected loss per game is 34 cents?
(2)
(Total 8 marks)

3
1 1 5 15  5  125
43. (a) P(3n) = 3  ; P ( 2n)  3   ; P(  n)     (M1)
6 216 216 216 6 216
Profit n n 2n 3n

215 75 15 1
Probability
216 216 216 216
(A1)(A1)(A1) (N3)

(b) E(X) =  n 125  n 75

 2n
15
 3n
1
(M1)(A1)
216 216 216 216
17n
=  (AG) (N0)
216

17n
(c)    0.34 (M1)
216
n = 4.32 (accept $ 4.32) (A1) (N1)

27