Business Stats / Math 0993 / Math 1111 Learning Centre

Probability 2:
Compound Events

Events that are independent of each other are events whose outcomes cannot affect
each other. This isn’t a precise definition — how can you tell whether events are
independent if they involve the same people, for example? — but it will do for now.
You’ll get a better definition and a test for independence later in your course.
The Probability 1 worksheet discussed how to determine the probability of one random
event. If you have a series of independent events, you can calculate the probability of
the series from those individual events.
Example 1: Three coins are flipped: a penny, a nickel and a dime. What is the
probability of getting heads on (a) the penny? (b) the nickel? (c) the dime? (d) all three?
Solution: There are two outcomes for each flip, and those outcomes are equally
likely, so we can say that the answer to (a), (b) and (c) is 1⁄2. (d) is a harder question. We
go back to our definition of how to calculate the probability of a random event: For
outcomes that are equally likely,
the total number of successes
P(event) =
the total number of outcomes
We can list all the outcomes of the coin flips. There are eight of them, and
only one of them is a success as the question defines it, so the answer is 1⁄8. p n d
H H H
This answer is also equal to 1⁄2 × 1⁄2 × 1⁄2, the product of the answers to (a), H H T
(b) and (c). This suggests the rule: H T H
The probability of a series of independent events is equal to the product H T T
of the probabilities of the individual events. T H H
T H T
or: P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B), where A and B are independent. T T H
This is a different rule from the addition rule in the Probability 1 worksheet! T T T
The addition rule deals with one event, and multiple outcomes of that event.
The multiplication rule here refers to the outcomes of a series of events.
We use “and” and “or” to describe combinations of events, but they’re common words
used in many contexts. It may help you to think in terms of “and then” versus “or else”.
If the parts of the problem can be connected with “and then” — I flip the penny and then
I flip the nickel — then every piece of the problem is another hoop to jump through, and
it only gets harder to succeed. We multiply these probabilities (since multiplying
fractions makes them smaller), and we check if the events are independent.
If the parts of the problem can be connected with “or else” — I flip a head on the penny
or else I roll an even number on a die — then every piece of the problem is a way to
succeed, and it gets easier. We add these probabilities (since adding fractions makes
them bigger), and we check if the events are disjoint. (See Probability 1 for a review.)

© 2013 Vancouver Community College Learning Centre. AuthoredbybyEmily

Darren Rigby
Simpson
Student review only. May not be reproduced for classes.
Example 2: What is the probability of rolling a 6 on a standard die, and then drawing a
6 from a well-shuffled deck of cards?
Solution: These events are independent — nothing we do with the die can
affect the cards — so we can use the rule about a series of events.
P( ) = 1⁄6
P( 6 ? ) = 4⁄52 = 1⁄13
P( and 6 ? ) = 1⁄6 × 1⁄13 = 1⁄78
Example 3: A deck of cards has had some cards removed. It now
contains 12 hearts (♥), 9 diamonds (♦), 6 clubs (♣) and 3 spades (♠), A special six-sided
die has 1 heart, 1 diamond, 2 clubs and 2 spades as its faces. What is the probability of
(a) rolling a heart on the die and drawing a heart from the deck? (b) rolling a suit on the
die and drawing the same suit from the deck?
Solution: (a) On the die, there is 1 heart out of six sides, so P(roll ♥ ) is 1⁄6. In the
deck there are 12 hearts out of 12 + 9 + 6 + 3 = 30 cards, so P(draw ?♥ = 12⁄30 = 2⁄5.
.·. P(roll ♥ and draw ?♥ ) = 1⁄6 × 2⁄5 = 2⁄30 = 1⁄15.
(b) This is a more complex question. Every outcome on the die might
result in a success in the sequence of events. It will be easier to keep track of our
information with a tree diagram. For each event, we add a level of
ROLL
branches to the tree and each outcome gets its own branch. Each branch DIE
also gets labelled with the probability of that outcome. We can calculate the 1
total probability for the question by adding the probability of each branch ⁄6
that results in a success. ♥ 1
We’ll start with the roll of the die. There are four outcomes for our ⁄6
♦
purposes, so we draw four branches in the first level. ♣ 1⁄3
1 1 ♠
P(roll ♥ ) = P(roll ♦ ) = ⁄6 and P(roll ♣ ) = P(roll ♠ ) = ⁄3 1
⁄3
Each of these outcomes will have two further outcomes when we draw a
card: the suits match or they don’t. The probabilities of matching each suit
are different, so we must calculate each one separately. We’ll also be using
the rule that says P(not A) = 1 − P(A):
ROLL DRAW
DIE CARD The tree has eight “leaves”: eight endings to the
2 1 2 1
⁄6 × ⁄5 = ⁄15
♥ ⁄5 branches that list the possibilities. If you were to
not ♥ 3⁄5 add up the probabilities for all eight leaves, the
1
⁄6 1 3 1
⁄6 × ⁄5 = ⁄10 sum would be 1.
3
♦ ⁄10
1 3 1
⁄6 × ⁄10 = ⁄20
♥ Four of the leaves represent successes in this
1
⁄6 not ♦ 7⁄10 experiment: the first, third, fifth and seventh. If we
♦ 1 7 7
⁄3 × ⁄10 = ⁄60
♣ 1 add up those four fractions, we get the probability
1
♣ ⁄5
1 1 1
⁄3 ⁄3 × ⁄5 = ⁄15
♠ of rolling a suit on the die, and then drawing the
not ♣ 4⁄5 same suit from the deck. (1⁄15 + 1⁄20 + 1⁄15 + 1⁄30 =
1
⁄3 1 4 4
⁄3 × ⁄5 = ⁄15 13
⁄60) (While we used “and then”, we’re not being
1
♠ ⁄10
1 1 1
⁄3 × ⁄10 = ⁄30
very specific — rolling “a suit” isn’t a single event
not ♠ 9⁄10 here, and we cannot calculate the probability by
1 9 3
⁄3 × ⁄10 = ⁄10
multiplying alone. To describe this event fully,

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we’d have to say “rolling a heart and then drawing a heart, or else rolling a diamond and
then drawing a diamond…”. The full description is quite complex, which is why we use a
tree diagram. The diagram makes it easier to keep track.)
INDEPENDENCE
For events like drawing a card and rolling a die, it’s obvious whether or not the events
are independent. They clearly have nothing to do with each other. Events in real life are
usually not so clear. We test for statistical independence by seeing whether events
follow the rule we stated earlier: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) when events are independent.
If we know the probability of two events by themselves, and the probability that they
happen at the same time, then we can use the rule backwards to see if the events are
independent.
Example 4: Brenda the batter and Peter the pitcher have played many baseball games
together. Out of 400 at-bats when Peter was pitching, Brenda got to first base (or farther)
244 times. In those same games, Peter used his patented fastball one quarter of the
time. He’s noticed that when he hasn’t used his fastball, he has struck Brenda out or
she didn’t get to base 117 times. Is Peter’s fastball effective when Brenda is at bat?
Solution: First we need to record our information. We use a two-way table, also
known as a contingency table.
The total number of trials (games) is 400. Brenda got to
base 244 times, so that’s the total under the “Got to base”
column. Peter used his fastball one-quarter of the time, or
183 117 300 100 times, so that’s the total on the “Fastball” row. Finally,
when Peter didn’t use his fastball, Brenda struck out 117
times. That number goes in the box where “Other” and
“Struck out” intersect.
61 39 100
With this information, we can fill in the rest of the data,
since the rows and columns have to add up. The finished
244 156 400
table is at left.
If Peter’s fastball is effective against Brenda, then she strikes out more often when he
uses it. This would mean that the two events would be dependent: Peter using his
fastball changes Brenda’s probability of striking out. We need to test these variables for
independence. We’ll use S for Brenda striking out, and F for Peter using his fastball as
the two events. According to the compound event rule:
P(S and F) = P(S) × P(F) if and only if S and F are independent
P(S and F) = 39⁄400 = 0.0975 P(S) × P(F) = 156⁄400 × 1⁄4 = 156⁄1600 = 0.0975
The answers are the same, so these events are independent. Peter’s fastball isn’t
particularly effective against Brenda, but it’s also no worse than anything else he uses,
on average.

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EXERCISES
A. For each compound event, should the probabilities of the parts in bold be added
together (“or else”) or multiplied together (“and then”)?
1) Pick a random VCC student and get a music student or a fashion student.
2) On a die, roll a square number. The square numbers on a die are 1 and 4.
3) Pull 2 socks, one after the other, from a drawer that are either brown or black.
4) Spin more than $500 on a wheel and pick a letter that’s in a word puzzle.
B. Find the probabilities of the following compound events. Assume in all cases that the
events are both independent and random. Express your answer as a fraction:
1) flipping a penny and getting tails and flipping a dime and getting heads
2) drawing a jack, queen or king from a deck of cards and rolling a 5 on a die
3) picking a date from the past that is a Tuesday in October (ignoring leap years)
4) rolling an odd number on a red die and rolling a multiple of 3 on a blue die
5) Choosing “B.C.” from a list of Canadian provinces and “Nunavut” from a list of
Canadian territories
6) choosing a white ball from box #3 below, rolling a 6 on a pair of dice, and
choosing a red crayon from a box of 8 different colours (including red, of course)
C. Consider three fair six-sided dice with the following numbers on their faces:
A: 2, 2, 2, 4, 9, 9 B: 1, 1, 6, 6, 8, 8 C: 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7
Use tree diagrams to find the probability that I roll the higher number if:
1) you choose die A and I choose die C, and we roll
2) you choose die B and I choose die A, and we roll
3) you choose die C and I choose die B, and we roll
D. In the boxes below, there are white balls and coloured balls, some with stripes and
some without stripes. (A white ball with a stripe is still considered a white ball.) One ball
from each box is drawn at random. Determine whether “drawing a white ball” and
“drawing a ball with a stripe” are independent events for each box:
1) 2) 3) white ball, no stripe

white ball, stripe

coloured ball, no stripe

coloured ball, stripe

SOLUTIONS
A: (1) added (music or else fashion) (2) added (1 or else 4) (3) multiplied (dark sock
and then a dark sock) (4) multiplied (spin $500 or more and then pick a letter)
B: (1) 1⁄2 × 1⁄2 = 1⁄4 (2) 12⁄52 × 1⁄6 = 1⁄26 (3) 1⁄7 × 31⁄365 = 31⁄2555 (4) 3⁄6 × 2⁄6 = 1⁄6
(5) 1⁄10 × 1⁄3 = 1⁄30 (6) 5⁄9 × 5⁄36 × 1⁄8 = 25⁄2592
C: (1) 7⁄12 (2) 5⁄9 (3) 11⁄18 No matter which die you pick, I win!
D: (1) P(white) × P(stripe) = 7⁄11 × 4⁄11 = 28⁄121; P(white with stripe) = 3⁄11; not independent
(2) P(white) × P(stripe) = 8⁄12 × 9⁄12 = 1⁄2; P(white with stripe) = 1⁄2; independent
(3) P(white) × P(stripe) = 4⁄9 × 0 = 0; P(white with stripe) = 0; independent

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