Republic of the Philippines
Eulogio “Amang” Rodriguez Institute
of Science and Technology
Nagtahan, Sampaloc, Manila
GRADUATE SCHOOL
Doctor of Education
Major in Educational Management
Name : PATRICIA BUISON, JR.
Subject : FS 203 – Advance Statistics
with Computer Education
Schedule : Saturdays, 7:00am – 10:00am
Professor : Dr. Grant B. Cornell
Topic : Probability
Principles of Counting and
Theories of Probability
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OBJECTIVES
At the end of the topic, the learner should be able to:
1. Discuss probability;
2. Apply tree, box, or Venn diagram in some counting
situations; and
3. Define permutation and combination and illustrate its
meaning.
I. INTRODUCTION
Probability theory is a very fascinating subject which can
be studied at various mathematical levels. It is the
foundation of statistical theory and applications.
Several Mathematicians like Pascal, James Bernoulli, De-
Moivre, Bayes, applied the theory of permutations and
combinations to quantify or calculate probability. Today,
the probability theory has become one of the fundamental
techniques in the development of Statistics.
The term “probability” in Statistics refers to the chances
of occurrence of an event among a large number of
possibilities.
II. CONTENT
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random
phenomenon or chance behavior. Probability describes the
long-term proportion with which a certain outcome will occur
in situations with short-term uncertainty.
Example: Simulate flipping a coin 100 times. Plot the
proportion of heads against the number of flips. Repeat the
simulation
Probability deals with experiments that yield random short-
term results or outcomes, yet reveal long-term
predictability.
The long-term proportion with which a certain outcome is
observed is the probability of that outcome.
TERMINOLOGIES:
Experiment – is any process that can be repeated in which
the results are uncertain.
An Experiment and Its Sample Space
Experiment Experiment Outcomes
Toss a coin Head, tail
Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
Sample Space – experiment is the collection of all possible
simple events. In other words, the sample space is a list
of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Event – is any collection of outcomes from a probability
experiment. An event may consist of one or more simple
events. Events are denoted using capital letters such as E.
TYPES OF COUNTING RULES
Counting rules are useful in determining the number of
possible outcomes for a given event.
1. THE FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING RULE (FCR)
If an experiment consists of a sequence of k steps in which
there are n1 possible results or the first step, n2
possible results for the second step, and so on, then the
total number of experimental outcomes is given by (n 1)
(n2) . . . (nk).
Example 1:
Suppose a school has three gates, in how many ways can
a student enter and leave the school?
Solution:
There are two activities involve here, the first in entering
and the second is leaving the school. The student has three
choices in doing the first activity and so with the second
activity. Suppose we call the first gate as A, the second as
B, and the third as C, let us explore some possible ways of
solving the problem.
1. By listing
The different entrance-exit pairs are:
AA, AB, AC, BA, BB, BC, CA, CB, CC
Therefore, there are 9 different ways of doing the said
activity.
2. By using a table
Entrance
Exit Gate
Gate
A B C
A (A,A) (A,B) (A,C)
B (B,A) (B,B) (B,C)
C (C,A) (B,C) (C,C)
In the table, the ordered pair (A, A) means that the student
can enter and leave the gate using the same gate. The order
pair (A, B) means the student can enter the school gate A
and can leave using gate B.
3. By using a tree diagram
Entrance Exit Ways of Doing
Gate Gate the Activities
A A A
A B A B
C A C
A A B
B B B B
C B C
A C A
C B C B
C C C
The diagram shown above shows the nine different ways of
entering and leaving the school.
4. By using the FCR
There are three gates to enter the school, n 1 = 3; and
using the same for leaving; n2 = 3 thus, 3 x 3 = 9 different
ways.
Example 2:
How many different 4-digit numbers can be performed
from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 if: (a) repetition is not
allowed? (b) how many of these are even? (c) how many are
odd? (d) repetition is allowed?
Solution:
a.) If repetition of the digits is NOT allowed:
5 4 3 2
= 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 = 120 different 4-digit numbers.
The boxes above show that there are 5, 4, 3, 2,
different ways of choosing the 1 st, 2nd, 3rd, and the 4th digit
respectively. Applying the FCR, there are 120 different 4-
digit numbers that can be formed from the given numbers.
b.) If repetition is NOT allowed, the even numbers are:
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
4 3 2 2
= 4 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 48 different 4-digit even numbers.
There are 5 digits to choose from, and since even
numbers can only end with 2 or 4, thus; they are only 4. 3.
2 different ways of choosing the first, second, third, and
fourth digits, respectively. Again, applying the principle
of counting: 4 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 48 different -digit even
numbers can be formed.
c. If repetition is not allowed, the od numbers are:
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
4 3 2 3
= 4 x 3 x 2 x 3 = 72 different 4-digit odd numbers
Again, thee are 5 digits to choose from, and since odd
numbers can only end with 1, 3, or 5, thus, there are only
4, 3, 2, and 3, different ways of choosing the first,
second, third and fourth digits, respectively. By FCR, 4 x 3
x 2 x 3 = 72 odd numbers can be formed
d. If repetition of the digits is allowed.
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5
= 5 x 5 x 5 x 5= 625 different digit numbers
Each box shows that there are 5 ways of choosing each
digit since if one number has been chosen it can still be
used in the three remaining digits.
2. PERMUTATION RULE
An arrangement of r objects from n objects, the order
of which is important. The possible number of such
arrangements is denoted by nPr.
n Pr = _n!_
(n-r)!
Where: n = set size: the total no. of items in the sample
r = subset size: the no. of items to be selected
from the sample
! = denotes the product of decreasing positive
whole numbers
Example:
How many different ways can a chairperson and an assistant
chairperson be selected for a research project if they are
seven statisticians available?
Solution:
n = 7 ; r = 2
7P2 = _7!_ = 7! = 42 ways
(7-2)! 5!
3. COMBINATION RULE
An arrangement of r objects from n objects, the order
of which is not important. The possible number of such
arrangements is denoted by nCr.
n Cr = __n!__
r! (n-r)!
Example:
Suppose that you decide to choose 3 students from our class
of 21 people to attend a statistics conference. How many
possible sets of attendees are possible?
Solution:
n = 21 ; r = 3
21C3 = __21!__ = _21!_
3! (21-3)! 3!(18!)
= 1,330 possible sets of attendees
Notice that the formula of combination is the same in the
permutation formula with an r! divides out the duplicates
from the number of permutations.
Example:
Given the letters A, B, C, and D, list the permutations
and combinations for selecting two letters.
Solution:
n = 4 ; r = 2
4P2 = _4!_ = _4! = 12 different ways
(4-2)! 2!
n = 4 ; r = 2
4C2 = __4!__ = _4!_ = 6 different ways
2! (4-2)! 2!(2!)
Note that the permutation, AB is different from BA but
in combination, AB is the same as BA.
IV. CONCLUSION:
Probability is used a lot in daily life, probability is
used in such Math, Statistics, Finance, Gambling, Science,
Machine and Artificial Intelligence, and in many other
activities.
IV. REFERENCES:
Altares, P.S. [Link] (2005). Elementary Statistics with
Computer Applications. Manila: Rex Bookstore.
Bhanu, Bhargavi (2013). Probability and Its Types with
Rules. [Link]
