PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 1

Project
Management
Journal
Volume 34, Number 4 The Professional Research Journal
DECEMBER 2003 of the Project Management Institute

PAPERS

4 UNDERSTANDING YOUR PROJECT

ORGANIZATION’S CHARACTER
Erling S. Anderson

12 EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT

METHOD AND EXTENSIONS
Frank T. Anbari

24 A CRITICAL LOOK AT CRITICAL CHAIN

PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Tzvi Raz, Robert Barnes and Dov Dvir

33 PROJECT MANAGEMENT LEARNING:

WHAT THE LITERATURE HAS TO SAY
Debbie Tesch, Timothy J. Kloppenborg and John K. Stemmer

40 JWARS:A CASE STUDY

Jim Metzger

47 PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN THE

AGE OF COMPLEXITY AND CHANGE
Ali Jaafari
PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 2

Calendar of Events
DECEMBER 2003 18–20 February
Technical Project Management. Washington, D.C., USA. For more
1-2 December
information, visit [Link].
The European Marketing Conference Seven world class thought
leaders and top executives discuss strategy, creativity and how
18–20 February
to put theory into practice. A Management Centre Europe
Identifying and Managing IT Requirements. Arlington, Virginia.
conference. London K.K. For more information, visit
USA. For more information, visit [Link] or call
[Link]/events/[Link]
+412-268-4656.
8-10 December
MARCH 2004
12th Global Symposium, “Taming the Future through Project
Management.” Organized by Project Management Associates- 10–11 March
India and Centre for Excellence in Project Management. New Project Risk Management. Dallas, Texas, USA.
Delhi, India. For more information, visit [Link]. For more information, visit
[Link]/str_link_all_results.asp?select_cartid=384
JANUARY 2004 or call toll-free in the United States +800-325-1533.
12-13 January
15–17 March
Team Building for Project Management. Las Vegas, Nevada,
IT Project Cost and Schedule Management. Arlington, Va., USA.
USA. Sponsored by The University of Wisconsin-Madison,
For more information, visit [Link] or call
Department of Engineering Professional Development. For more
+412-268-4656.
information, visit [Link]
Contact custserv@[Link] or call +800-462-0876.
18–19 March
Managing Complex Product Development Projects. MIT Sloan
19–20 January
School, Cambridge, Mass., USA. For more information, visit
Project Risk Management. Parsippany, New Jersey, USA.
[Link] or call Maureen Tracy at
For more information, visit
+781-239-1111.
[Link]/str_link_all_results.asp?select_cartid=384
or call toll-free in the United States+800-325-1533.
APRIL 2004
21–23 January 17–21 April
Managing Technology Projects. Arlington, Virginia, USA. International Cost Engineering Council’s 4th World Congress.
For more information, visit [Link] “Value Beyond Cost.” Cape Town, South Africa. For more
or call +412-268-4656. information, visit [Link]/
or [Link]/events.
22–23 January
Project Risk Management. Salt Lake City, Utah, USA. 19–21 April
For more information, IT Risk Management. Arlington, Va., USA. For more information,
visit [Link]/str_link_all_results.asp?select_cartid=384 visit [Link] or call +412-268-4656.
or call toll-free in the United States
+800-325-1533. MAY 2004
10–12 May
28–30 January Project Management South Africa (PMSA) Conference 2004.
Technical Project Management. Atlanta, Georgia. USA. “Global Knowledge.” For more information, visit
For more information, visit [Link]. [Link]/conference.

FEBRUARY 2004 17–21 May

18–19 February ProjectWorld Toronto. Metro Toronto Convention Centre,
Project Risk Management. Chicago, Illinios. USA. Ontario, Canada. For more information,
For more information, visit visit [Link]/toronto/[Link].
[Link]/str_link_all_results.asp?select_cartid=384
or call toll-free in the United States+800-325-1533. 24–26 May
Leadership in a Project Environment. Arlington, Va., USA.
For more information, visit [Link]
or call +412-268-4656.
PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 3

Project
Management
Journal
The Professional Research Journal of the Project Management Institute
Volume 34, Number 4
DECEMBER 2003
3 From the Editor
Parviz F. Rad, PhD, PMP

PAPERS

4 UNDERSTANDING YOUR PROJECT ORGANIZATION’S CHARACTER

Erling S. Anderson

12 EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHOD AND EXTENSIONS

Frank T. Anbari

24 A CRITICAL LOOK AT CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Tzvi Raz, Robert Barnes and Dov Dvir

33 PROJECT MANAGEMENT LEARNING:WHAT THE LITERATURE HAS TO SAY

Debbie Tesch, Timothy J. Kloppenborg and John K. Stemmer

40 JWARS:A CASE STUDY

Jim Metzger

47 PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN THE AGE OF COMPLEXITY AND CHANGE

Ali Jaafari

59 Cover to Cover—Book Reviews

Kenneth H. Rose, PMP

62 Guidelines for PMJ Book Reviews

63 Notes for Authors

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 2

PROJECT MANAGEMENT JOURNAL

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2 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 3

F ROM THE E DITOR

Parviz F. Rad, PhD, PMP

In terms of presence, stature, and own sense of right and wrong. Given
recognition, project management is that professional responsibility is an
approaching the long established individual issue, fundamentally it stays
professions such as engineering, law, and unchanged independent of whether the
medicine. Accordingly, the professional professional is a member of a
responsibility aspect of project traditional team or a virtual team.
management practices is receiving an However, the project management
increasing amount of attention, professional may have to use modified
primarily because it is being recognized that the means in order to discharge these responsibilities
behavior and performance of project professionals when working on a virtual team. The areas of
impact the profit-loss status of the organization, and distinction are founded on those behavioral features
to some extent the public welfare, in significant that make virtual teams a different entity from
ways. It is fair to say that the activities of the Project traditional teams, such as people interaction issues
Management Institute during the past two decades of the team. There is no question that seasoned
have had a major impact in advancing and project managers will be able to adapt to the new
highlighting this very important profession. ethical situations, brought on by the virtual
The project management tasks and operations environment, reasonably well. However, a set of
will be influenced by two sets of policies and standards, procedures, and guidelines will
guidelines. One set addresses the conduct of the illuminate the path even to those who have recently
collective project team in managing the areas of the entered the profession.
project management body of knowledge. The As always, on behalf of the editorial board, I
second set relates the project manager’s invite our readers to reflect on their professional
interpretation of the legal, ethical, and moral experiences with ethical issues in project
implications of the project team’s actions and management and to share these documented,
decisions. In turn, these interpretations are driven by methodical, and empirical observations with the
the behavioral attributes and personal judgment of project management community by way of
the individual members of that team, and to some submitting articles dealing with professional ethics.
degree by the organizational culture of that team. I would like to close this letter on a personal
Appropriate conduct, that is consistent with all of note. For the past three years, I have had the
these standards, is the foundation of professional privilege of serving as the Editor. As part of
responsibility in project management. Generally discharging my duties as the Editor, I was in an
speaking, codes of professional conduct are invigorating position of being in touch with the
formulated to protect the interest of the public, the latest innovations and research activities in the field
interest of the client, the interest of the profession, of project management. I am very grateful for having
and the interest of the colleagues. Guidelines been afforded this unique vantage point on the
generally highlight integrity, knowledge profession. Notwithstanding, as I finish my term of
management, individual competence, and office, it is time for me to devote more time to other
stakeholder issues. endeavors of personal and professional nature. The
Although normally professional responsibility search for a new Editor has already begun and the
guidelines provide tools that highlight many of incoming editor will be named soon. Naturally, in
delicate situations that might be potentially order to make a smooth transition, I will be serving
encountered, the final decision will ultimately in this position until such time that the incoming
depend on one’s own personal values, and one’s Editor has been fully installed.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 3

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 4

This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

UNDERSTANDING YOUR PROJECT

ORGANIZATION’S CHARACTER
ERLING S. ANDERSEN,
Norwegian School of Management BI, P.O. Box 580, Sandvika N-1302 Norway

n organization’s culture strongly influences its achievements. There are

ABSTRACT
A several definitions of organizational culture (Brown, 1995). The well-
known definition by Schein (1985) suggests, in essence, that an organi-
zational culture is the pattern of basic assumptions accepted and used by the
Participants from 175 different Norwegian organization. Cleland (1988) as well as Firth and Krut (1991) pointed out the
projects described the organizational importance of the organizational culture within projects at an early stage.
cultures of both their most recent projects A project manager faces two main cultural challenges. First, the project
and their organizations. Their descriptions manager quickly must develop a suitable organizational culture within the
are based on a typology distinguishing project to achieve proper progress and the best results possible. Second, the
between power, role, task, and person project manager must understand the organizational culture of the associated
cultures, as outlined and developed in base organization and the subcultures of various departments to communi-
Harrison (1972) and Handy (1986). This cate and interact effectively with those groups (Elmes & Wilemon, 1988).
study demonstrates that projects are more A project manager cannot establish an adequate project culture easily.
task culture-oriented than their base Developing an organizational culture requires time, a commodity already at a
organizations. Further, hierarchical premium in most projects. In addition, people are typically recruited to the
elements of the project must be eliminated project from the base organization, often implying an organizational culture
for a project to move closer to the at odds with the project culture. Most people from the base organization then
prevalent task culture. A stronger task must adapt culturally to the new project to function effectively.
orientation improves the chances of This paper is a study of the organizational culture of projects. It is com-
staying within the project budget. pared with the organizational culture of the projects’ associated base organi-
zation. The author further explores areas that have room for improvement to
Keywords: project culture; organizational achieve a more positive and productive project organizational culture. Finally,
culture; task orientation; project success the author investigates whether projects with a certain organizational culture
achieve better results than other projects.
©2003 by the Project Management Institute

Vol. 34, No. 4, 4-11, ISSN 8756-9728/03 Typologies of Organizational Cultures

Different typologies can illuminate the organizational culture of an organiza-
tion (Brown, 1995). Deal and Kennedy (1982) distinguish between four
generic cultures: the tough guy-macho culture, the work-hard/play-hard cul-
ture, the bet-your-company culture, and the process culture. Scholz (1987)
has identified three culture typologies based on different dimensions of cul-
ture: the evolution dimension (how cultures change over time), the internal
dimension (how the internal circumstances of an organization affect its cul-
ture), and the external dimension (how an organization’s environment affects
its culture). The last dimension coincides with the Deal-Kennedy typology.

4 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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Based on the nature of the transac- ascribed to superior roles; thinking is • Do projects with a strong task cul-
tions associated with information logical, analytical, vertical, and ration- ture achieve better results than other
exchange in organizations, Quinn & ally efficient. Typical of the guided- projects?
McGrath (1985) distinguish between missile culture is the achievement of Harrison developed a question-
four generic cultures: market (the status as organizational members con- naire to study dominant culture in an
rational), adhocracy (the ideological), tribute to targeted goals, while think- organization. The author has applied
clan (the consensual), and hierarchy ing is problem centered and the version as it appears in Brown
(the hierarchical). Elmes & Wilemon cross-disciplinary. Finally, in the incu- (1995). The Harrison questionnaire
(1988) applied this typology in their bator culture, status is achieved as indi- originally was used to describe the
discussion of how project managers viduals exemplify creativity and existing and preferred organizational
must adjust their communications and growth and apply creative thinking. culture of a base organization. The
strategies depending on the culture of author has, however, adjusted and
the base organization. The Research Approach employed the questionnaire as a
Dubinkas (1993) elaborates on In this paper, the author studies the framework for project participants to
two models of organizational culture: organizational cultures of various describe their most recent project and
a Taylorist, control-oriented funnel projects and compares these project their base organization (see
model and a contrasting, more chaotic cultures with those of the base organ- Appendix). The respondents were
fermentation-vat model with flexible izations. Because all typologies pre- given 15 questions about the organiza-
learning. He uses these cultural models sented may be useful in describing tional culture of their base organiza-
in an ethnographic field study of a the culture of a base organization, it tion (Questions 1-15) and 15 similar
manufacturing automation project at is preferable to utilize a typology of questions about the organizational
an American assembly plant with a organizational cultures that applies culture of their project (Questions 16-
Japanese contractor. to the cultures of both project and 30). In addition, the author asked
Another typology was introduced base organizations. guided questions regarding the charac-
by Harrison (1972) and further dis- An appropriate project culture has teristics of the base organization and
cussed and developed by Handy been characterized as a task culture, the project and posed questions about
(1986). They divide the umbrella term i.e., an organizational culture in which project results.
of organizational culture into four dif- the dominant objective is to complete Participants in various part-time
ferent types: power, role, task, and per- a given job, with the cooperative master’s degree programs in project
son. A power culture has a single efforts and complementary talents of management in Norway were asked to
source of power from which rays of individuals who possess different respond to the questionnaire. All
influence spread throughout the expertise (Graham, 1987). The task respondents either were taking part in
organization. A role culture is a culture of the Harrison-Handy typolo- a project at the time or recently had
bureaucracy, the organizing principles gy is an organizational culture that participated in project work. Though
of which are logic and rationality. A may coincide with the desired charac- the author cannot claim that the proj-
task culture is one in which power is teristics of an ideal project organiza- ects studied are representative of all
based on expertise rather than position tion. According to Harrison (1972), projects in the country, the research
or charisma; structurally, the task cul- the achievement of a superordinate did cover 175 separate projects con-
ture may be thought of as a network or goal is the highest value within a task ducted in Norway with a generous
matrix. In a person culture, the devel- culture. The important thing is that the cross-section of objectives and partici-
opment of human potential and wel- organization’s structure, functions, and pants, a wide range of industries, small
fare is paramount; such a culture activities all are evaluated in terms of and large companies, and different
develops when a group of people their contribution to the superordinate geographical regions. Many of the
decide that it is in their own best inter- goal. Nothing is permitted to distract projects were not finished by the time
est to organize on a collective rather from accomplishing the task. of the information gathering. The
than an individual basis. It may be rep- The author has decided to use author was able to get information
resented as a cluster in which no indi- the Harrison-Handy typology to regarding project results for 50 of the
viduals dominate. investigate projects and base organi- 175 responses.
The typology of Trompenaars and zations. With this model, the research The respondents were not
Hampden-Turner (1997) may be quite problems are: informed about the purpose of the
close to the Harrison-Handy typology. • Is the task culture the dominant cul- investigation, nor was it revealed to
It too consists of four cultures: family, ture in projects? them that the questions were designed
Eiffel Tower, guided missile, and incu- • Is the task culture more dominant in to identify the culture of their base
bator. The status of the family culture projects than in base organizations? organization and of their most recent
is ascribed to close, powerful parent • What parts of the project culture project. The layout of the question-
figures; thinking is intuitive and holis- should one develop to create a more naire was such that respondents could
tic. In the Eiffel Tower culture, status is task-oriented culture? not access easily their earlier responses

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 5

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:34 AM Page 6

to questions regarding the base organ- instances, two cultures are ranked Table 2 shows the average scores
ization while they answered questions equally as first.) given to the different organizational
about the project. This ensured that The task culture proves to be the cultures in base organizations and
descriptions of the base organization dominant (first-ranked) organization- projects.
and project were given independently al culture in most projects (82.6%). In Using the paired samples t-test on
of each other. that sense, projects generally succeed the data from Table 2, a significant dif-
The description of a culture in creating a desired project culture. ference (on level 0.000) is found
addresses 15 different areas of rele- The task culture is first-ranked in near- between the base organizations and
vance. For each area, the questionnaire ly 60% of the base organizations (109 the projects task culture regarding the
offers four descriptions (statements)
labeled a through d. The four state-
ments are characteristic of the a) power Power Role Task Person
N
culture culture culture culture
culture, b) role culture, c) task culture,
and d) person culture. For each area, Base organizations
the respondent is asked to rank the Mean 45.0 33.1 29.4 42.7 175
statements from one to four, with 1 (Standard deviation) (8.9) (6.7) (6.2) (7.5)
designating the statement that best
describes the actual situation in their Projects
base organization or project and, con- Mean 49.2 33.8 24.2 42.9 175
versely, 4 representing the statement (Standard deviation) (7.7) (5.4) (6.0) (6.9)
that least describes their situation.
If an organization or project were
Table 2. Scores (Means and Standard Deviations) Given to the Four Organizational Cultures Based on
perfectly matched to a particular cul- the Ranking of 15 Characteristics of a Culture
ture (for instance, the task culture, all
15 c) statements would be first-ranked out of 183). This result, however, dominance of the task culture. This
(given 1), and the score for the task should not be generalized to cover all suggests that projects are generally
culture would be a perfect 15. organizations. All respondents are more oriented toward a task culture
However, if no congruence were expe- from organizations that already use than are base organizations. Hence,
rienced (only 4s), the final score projects as an organizational supple- project managers and project team
would be a 60. ment to the base organization. It is rea- members are in general able to
establish an organizational culture
better suited to the project’s needs
Power Role Task Person than the existing culture in the base
N
culture culture culture culture organization.
A regression analysis, with project
Base organizations
task culture as the dependent variable
Number 12 56 109 6 183
and task culture of the base organiza-
(Percentage) (6.6) (30.6) (59.6) (3.3) (100.0)
tion as the independent variable, gives
a standardized Beta coefficient of 0.53
Projects
(significance level 0.000). This means
Number 5 23 147 3 178
that if the task culture of the base
(Percentage) (2.8) (12.9) (82.6) (1.7) (100.0)
organization improves by one point,
the task culture of the project tends to
Table 1. Number and Percentages of Cultures First-Ranked in Base Organizations and Projects
be bettered by 0.53. A more task-ori-
ented base organization will bring
The Project Culture — sonable, therefore, to question more task culture into a project.
Results and Discussion whether the task culture of these proj- Table 3 shows the scores given to
Table 1 shows which culture the repre- ects has influenced the culture of the the task culture in the surveyed proj-
sentatives of the organizations have base organization, thus making such ects. There was one perfect score of 15
ranked as the dominant culture; that companies more task culture-oriented. (fully compatible with the task cul-
is, the culture scoring the lowest of the It is further reasonable to expect that ture), while the highest score was 51.
four measured. many organizations will move toward
As Table 1 shows, all four types of a task culture in the future, while Different Characteristics of the Project
organizational culture are first-ranked increasing responsiveness and flexibili- Culture — Results and Discussion
among base organizations. (The num- ty by integrating more of a task culture Harrison’s questionnaire is based on
ber of first-rankings exceeds the 175 into their traditional base culture the premise that 15 characteristics con-
observations because, in some (Firth & Krut, 1991). stitute a culture. By looking closer at

6 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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Further, the most widespread cul-

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 > 39 N
tural distinctions of project culture as
defined by the lowest mean (closest to
Number 40 69 42 12 8 4 175
a perfect 1) (see Table 4) are:
(Percentage) (22.9) (39.4) (24.0) (6.8) (4.6) (2.3) (100.0)
People collaborate when their
joint contribution is needed to per-
Table 3. The Scores Given to the Task Culture in Projects Based on the Ranking of 15 Characteristics form the task (project culture charac-
of a Culture
teristic 25c);
these characteristics, one can identify organization is role-oriented, while the A good member gives priority to
which culture is the dominant one for project team member should be task- the task requirements for skill, ability,
each characteristic and see where proj- oriented. The legitimate reason for energy, and material resources (18c);
ects may be improved, moving toward controlling other people in projects is People are influenced by commu-
a perfect task culture. superior knowledge, while in the base nication of task requirements leading
Table 4 shows there is generally a organization it is rank. to appropriate action that is motivated
great resemblance between the actual Even if the task culture is ranked by personal commitment to goal
cultures of the base organizations and first for nearly all characteristics of achievement (21c);
their projects, considering the different both the project and base organiza- The basis of task assignment is the
characteristics of a culture. According tions, paired samples t-tests on level resource and expertise requirements of
to the survey results, the culture that is 0.05 show that there is a significant the job to be done (23c).
These factors are most strongly
associated with the project culture and
Base All projects are well suited for characterizing a
organizations
project.
Number Culture characteristics First - Mean First - Mean Meanwhile, for projects in general,
ranked ranked ranked ranked the largest discrepancies exist in rela-
1 (16) Manager c 1.94 c 1.56 tion to an ideal task culture in the fol-
lowing areas:
2 (17) Subordinate c 1.96 c 1.62 Decisions are made by the person
3 (18) Good member b 1.59 c 1.41 with the most knowledge and expertise
about the problem (project culture
4 (19) Career success c 2.02 c 1.66 characteristic 28c);
5 (20) Treatment of the individual c 1.86 c 1.65 It is legitimate for one person to
control another’s activities if he/she
6 (21) Means of control of people c 1.75 c 1.42 has more knowledge that is relevant to
7 (22) Legitimate reasons for control b 1.86 c 1.99 the task (22c).
In an appropriate control and
8 (23) Basis of task assignment c 1.72 c 1.42 communication structure, information
9 (24) Drivers of work performance c 1.59 c 1.51 about task requirements and problems
flows from the center of task activity
10 (25) Reasons for cooperation c 1.57 c 1.38 upward and outward, with those clos-
11 (26) Purpose of competition c 2.12 c 1.58 est to the task determining the
resources and support needed from the
12 (27) Handling of conflict c 1.97 c 1.58 rest of the project. A coordinating
13 (28) Decision-making b 1.63 b 1.87 function may set priorities and overall
resource levels based on information
14 (29) Communication structure c 2.06 c 1.78 from all task centers. The structure
15 (30) Response to the environment c 1.87 c 1.63 shifts with the nature and location of
the tasks (29c).
Table 4. First-Ranked Organizational Culture and Mean Values Within the Different Culture Areas for The author has identified three
Base Organizations and Projects areas where the projects depart the
most from the task culture. Looking
first-ranked in the projects is nearly difference between them for all charac- more closely at the three characteris-
always first-ranked in the base organi- teristics but one: drivers of work per- tics, the participants’ responses suggest
zations as well. formance. This suggests that there is a that a hierarchical project structure
There are only two exceptions significant difference between the proj- serves as a barrier to achieving an ideal
here: cultural characteristics 3 (18) and ect and the base organization culture task culture. Decisions are taken in
7 (22). The ideal member of the base for the different cultural characteristics. accordance with a hierarchy, control is

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 7

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 8

carried out based on the hierarchy, and ing experience and motivation for that the task-orientation itself does not
information is disseminated on the future work, facilities for acquiring improve these kinds of results.
basis of the organizational hierarchy, knowledge are a prerequisite for con- It should not come as a surprise
suggesting that, even in projects, posi- tinuous development. that there are other factors apart from
tion and status count more than Respondents judged the result ele- the project’s organizational culture
knowledge and expertise. ments of their projects on a scale from that contribute to the results of a proj-
If the objective for the project cul- 1 to 6, where 1 represents strong dis- ect. Looking at just a single contribut-
ture is to move toward the ideal task agreement with the given statement ing factor may, in fact, suggest a
culture, there may be a trade-off and 6 represents strong agreement. different outcome. As shown by Pinto
between the interests of the project Table 5 shows that there is room for & Slevin (1987), there are many factors
and those of the project owner (the improvement. The Norwegian projects that affect the outcome of a project.
individuals responsible for the project score rather low on satisfying all the This study does not aim to explain or
in the base organization). For instance, stakeholders, struggle to keep their study all these factors. Rather, it shows
if a flatter project organization should schedule, yet are much better at staying that most projects find it beneficial to
prove to be necessary to create a better within budget. Nonetheless, most establish an organizational culture
task culture, the project owner may be project participants are motivated to marked by more task-orientation than
opposed to it, fearing that such a struc- engage in new projects. its base organization. The strength of
ture would conceal who is in charge of Table 5 further shows that there task-orientation has a direct influence
the project’s different tasks. Even the generally is not a strong correlation on a project’s ability to stay within its
project manager may feel that a tradi- between results and the project’s task budget, but in most respects, task-ori-
tional hierarchy is a safer way of dele- culture-orientation. There are indica- entation probably has a more indirect
gating responsibility than leaving it to tions that a stronger task-orientation effect on the results of a project.
a larger group of people. might yield better project results, yet
only one correlation is statistically sig- Implications for Practitioners
The Project Results and Task- nificant. A stronger task-orientation (a There are significant differences in
Orientation — Results and Discussion lower score on the task culture) organizational culture between base
The research objectives include an improves the budget performance of a organizations and the projects that
analysis of the correlation between project (a higher score on this result they establish. Further, projects are dif-
task-orientation and project outcome. element). Two of the result elements ferent in terms of organizational cul-
This requires actual project results even have the “wrong” sign, indicating ture, even though most of them have a
data, in addition to the responses on
the organizational culture question-
Correlation
naire. Result elements Mean Standard with task- Significance
Traditionally, an evaluation of deviation orientation
project results is based on whether the
project achieves its goals on time and The project is finished on time 4.4 1.5 -.149 .324
within budget. However, this repre- The project is finished within budget 5.2 1.0 -.298 .056*
sents a narrow interpretation of project
results (Atkinson, 1999; Lim & The project has met its planned 4.6 1.2 .059 .702
Mohamed, 1999). For this reason, the quality standard
project results are divided into eight The project’s end product is already
result elements that give a more com- employed or adapted as planned 4.8 1.0 -.165 .259
prehensive picture of a preferable proj- or designed
ect outcome. The list of elements is
All participants regard this project as
presented as part of Table 5 and 4.5 1.1 -.108 .469
a success
includes the traditional way of measur-
ing results of a project: finished on The project participants have 5.0 1.3 .022 .883
schedule, within budget, and accord- significantly learned from this project
ing to planned quality standards. The project participants are well 5.0 1.3 -.099 .497
However, today most project owners motivated for future projects
consider that the most decisive feature
All relevant documents from this
of a project is whether the final prod- project are compiled in a separate 5.1 1.3 -.040 .791
ucts are useful for the base organiza- report or file
tion, so this measurement is included.
It also is important that project results All result elements 4.7 0.7 - .150 .414
appeal to all stakeholders. Because
Table 5. Result Elements, Their Means, Standard Deviations and Pearson Correlations with the Task-
projects should be considered a learn- Orientation of the Project

8 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 9

task culture. The organizational culture projects were characterized as person Pinto, J. K., & Slevin, D. P. (1987).
affects project results, but the existence culture-oriented, one might learn Critical factors in successful project
of a strong task culture is not the deci- more about this culture by closely implementation. IEEE Transactions on
sive factor in most cases. studying such projects. Engineering Management, 34(1), 22-27.
For project managers to establish a Additional research challenges Quinn, R. E., & McGrath, M. R.
preferred culture in their projects, they prevail. This research has not fully (1985). The transformation of organi-
must have a comprehensive picture of explained why project managers zational cultures: A competing values
the existing culture. Without appropri- choose to establish a strong task cul- perspective. In P.J. Frost, L.F. Moore,
ate knowledge of the present situation, ture within their projects and what is M.R. Louis, C.C. Lundberg, & J. Martin
they will be unable to make definite the “optimal” culture of a project. (Eds.), Organizational culture (315-
changes to the culture. For effective Finally, this study takes its empirical 334). Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
communication with the base organi- materials solely from Norwegian proj- Schein, E. H. (1985).
zation, they must be properly ects and base organizations. It would Organizational culture and leadership.
informed of its organizational culture. be of interest to see if the findings hold San Francisco,CA: Jossey-Bass.
Project managers and practition- true for other countries as well. Scholz, C. (1987). Corporate cul-
ers may use this study’s questionnaire ture and strategy - The problem of
to explore the different natures of their References strategic fit. Long Range Planning,
project culture and base organizational Atkinson, R. (1999). Project manage- 20(4), 78-87.
culture. In other words, both the ment: Cost, time and quality, two best Trompenaars, F., & Hampden-
approach and results of this study will guesses and a phenomenon, it’s time Turner, C. (1997). Riding the waves of
give practitioners material for an eval- to accept other success criteria. culture. London: Nicholas Brearley.
uation of their present situation. International Journal of Project
Utilizing the questionnaire determines Management, 17(6), 337-342. Appendix: Questionnaire
the general characteristic of the culture, Brown, A. (1995). Organisational Questions 1-15 explore the organiza-
i.e., which culture is the dominant one culture. London: Pitman Publishing. tional culture of the base organization,
within an organization. It also will give Cleland, D. I. (1988). The cultural and questions 16-30 the organization-
a more detailed description of 15 areas ambience of project management - al culture of the project. (This informa-
that are relevant to perceiving an orga- Another look. Project Management tion was not given to the respondents.)
nizational culture. Journal, 19(3), 49-56.
Within some projects several Deal, T. E., & Kennedy, A. A. Instructions
members of the project team have (1982). Corporate cultures: The rites and For questions 1–15, give a “1” to the
responded to the questionnaire and rituals of corporate life. Reading, MA: statement that best describes the actual
given their views on the organizational Addison-Wesley. situation in your line organization, a
culture of the project. The responses Dubinkas, F. A. (1993). Modeling “2” to the next closest to the actual sit-
have been compared, and the results cultures of project management. uation, and so on through “3” and “4.”
have been utilized in an organization- Journal of Engineering and Technology For questions 16–30, give a “1” to
al development effort within the proj- Management, 10 (1,2), 129-160. the statement that best describes the
ect to create a shared vision of the Elmes, M., & Wilemon, D. (1988). actual situation in your most recent
desired culture and a common effort to Organizational culture and project project, a “2” to the next closest to the
implement it. leadership effectiveness. Project actual situation, and so on through “3”
Management Journal, 19, 54-63. and “4.”
Further Research Firth, G., & Krut, R. (1991).
In this study, only one participant has Introducing a Project Management 1 (16) My line manager (project
evaluated each project. It would be Culture. European Management Journal, manager) is:
interesting to obtain several views on 9(4), 437-443. a. Strong, decisive, and firm, but fair.
the same organizational culture to Graham, R. J. (1987). Project man- He/she is protective, generous, and
study if project participants experience agement as if people mattered. Bala indulgent to loyal subordinates.
the culture in the same way. Cynwyd, PA: Primavera Press. b. Impersonal and correct, avoiding
Other typologies than the Handy, C. (1986). Gods of manage- the exercise of authority for his/her
Harrison-Handy typology may be ment. London: Souvenir Press. own advantage. He/she demands from
worthwhile to study. Harrison, R. (1972). Understanding the subordinates only that which is
Conducting more in-depth studies your organization’s character. Harvard required by the formal system.
of actual projects that belong to the Business Review 50(3), 119-128. c. Egalitarian and capable of being
various cultures also could be useful. Lim, C. S., & Mohamed, M. Z. (1999). influenced in matters concerning the
Handy (1986) states that the person Criteria of project success: an exploratory task. He/she uses authority to obtain
culture is “an unusual one” (p. 189). re-examination. International Journal of the resources needed to complete
Because Table 1 indicates that three Project Management, 17(4), 243-248. the job.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 9

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d. Concerned with and responsive to were at the disposal of persons higher or personal loyalty toward a powerful
the personal needs and values of oth- in the hierarchy. individual.
ers. He/she uses the position to pro- b. Though his/her time and energy b. Respect for contractual obligations
vide satisfying and growth-stimulating were available through a contract backed up by sanctions and loyalty
work opportunities for subordinates. with rights and responsibilities for toward the organization (project) or
both sides. system.
2 (17) A good subordinate in my line c. A coworker who has committed c. Satisfaction in excellence of work
organization (project) is: his/her skills and abilities to the com- and achievement and/or personal
a. Compliant, hard working, and loyal mon cause. commitment to the task or goal.
to the interests of his/her superior. d. An interesting and worthwhile per- d. Enjoyment of the activity for its own
b. Responsible and reliable, meeting son in his/her own right. sake and concern and respect for the
the duties and responsibilities of needs and values of the other persons
his/her job and avoiding actions that 6 (21) People in my line organization involved.
surprise or embarrass his/her superior. (project) are controlled and influenced
c. Self-motivated to contribute his/her by the: 10 (25) People in my line organization
best to the task and is open with ideas a. Personal exercise of economic and (project) work together when:
and suggestions. He/she is nevertheless political power (rewards and punish- a. They are required by higher authori-
willing to give the lead to others when ments). ty or when they believe they can use
they show greater expertise or ability. b. Impersonal exercise of economic each other for personal advantage.
d. Vitally interested in the develop- and political power to enforce proce- b. Coordination and exchange are
ment of his/her own potentialities and dures and standards of performance. specified by the formal system.
open to learning and to receiving help. c. Communication and discussion of c. Their joint contribution is needed to
He/she also respects the needs and val- task requirements leading to appropri- perform the task.
ues of others and is willing to help and ate action motivated by personal com- d. The collaboration is personally satis-
contribute to their development. mitment to goal achievement. fying, stimulating, or challenging.
d. Intrinsic interest and enjoyment to
3 (18) A good member of my line be found in their activities and/or by 11 (26) The purpose of competition in
organization (project) gives first prior- concern and caring for the needs of the my line organization (project) is to:
ity to the: other persons involved. a. Gain personal power and advantage.
a. Personal demands of the boss (proj- b. Gain high-status positions in the
ect manager). 7 (22) It is legitimate for one person in formal system.
b. Duties, responsibilities, and my line organization (project) to con- c. Increase the excellence of the contri-
requirements of his/her own role and trol another’s activities if: bution to the task.
to the customary standard of personal a. He/she has more authority and d. Draw attention to one’s own per-
behavior. power in the organization (project). sonal needs.
c. Requirements of the task for skill, b. His/her role prescribes that he/she is
ability, energy, and material resources. responsible for directing the other. 12 (27) Conflict in my line organiza-
d. Personal needs of the individuals c. He/she has more knowledge relevant tion (project) is:
involved. to the task. a. Controlled by the intervention of
d. The other accepts that the first per- higher authorities and often fostered
4 (19) People who do well in my line son’s help or instruction can con- by them to maintain their own power.
organization (project) are: tribute to his/her learning and growth. b. Suppressed by reference to rules,
a. Shrewd and competitive with a procedures, and definitions of respon-
strong drive for power. 8 (23) The basis of task assignment in sibility.
b. Conscientious and responsible with my line organization (project) is the: c. Resolved through full discussion of
a strong sense of loyalty to the organi- a. Personal needs and judgment of the merits of the work issues involved.
zation (project). those in authority. d. Resolved by open and deep discus-
c. Technically effective and competent b. Formal divisions of functions and sion of personal needs and values
with a strong commitment to getting responsibilities in the system. involved.
the job done. c. Resource and expertise requirements
d. Effective and competent in personal of the job to be done. 13 (28) Decisions in my line organiza-
relationships with a strong commit- d. Personal wishes and needs for learn- tion (project) are made by the:
ment to the growth and the develop- ing and growth of individual organiza- a. Person with the higher power and
ment of people. tion (project) members. authority.
5 (20) My line organization (project) 9 (24) Work in my line organization b. Person whose job description carries
treats the individual as: (project) is performed out of: the responsibility.
a. Though his/her time and energy a. Hope of reward, fear of punishment, c. Person with the most knowledge

10 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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and expertise about the problem. ments and problems flows from the 15 (30) The environment to my line
d. Person most personally involved center of task activity upward and out- organization (project) is responded
and affected by the outcome. ward, with those closest to the task to as though it were:
determining the resources and support a. A competitive jungle in which every-
14 (29) In an appropriate control and needed from the rest of the organiza- one is against everyone else and those
communication structure in my line tion (project). A coordinating function who do not exploit others are them-
organization (project): may set priorities and overall resource selves exploited.
a. Command flows from the top down levels based on information from all b. An orderly and rational system in
in a simple pyramid so that anyone task centers. The structure shifts with which competition is limited by law
who is higher in the pyramid has the nature and location of the tasks. and there can be negotiation or com-
authority over anyone who is lower. d. Information and influence flow promise to resolve conflicts.
Information flows up through the from person to person, based on c. A complex of imperfect forms and sys-
chain of command. voluntary relationships initiated for tems that are to be reshaped and improved
b. Directives flow from the top down purposes of work, learning, mutual by the achievements of the organization
and information flows upward within support, enjoyment, and shared (project).
functional pyramids that meet at the values. A coordinating function d. A complex of potential threats and sup-
top. The authority and responsibility may establish overall levels of con- port. It is used and manipulated by the
of a role is limited to the roles beneath tribution needed for the mainte- organization (project) both as a means of
it in its own pyramid. Cross-functional nance of the organization (project). self-nourishment and as a play-and-work
exchange is constricted. These tasks are assigned by mutual space for the enjoyment and growth of
c. Information about task require- agreement. organization (project) members.

ERLING S. ANDERSEN is professor of Information Systems and Project Management at the Norwegian
School of Management BI. He holds a Master in Economics from University of Oslo. Before joining NSM BI
he was Professor of Information Science at University of Bergen. He has published several books and arti-
cles on information technology, systems development, project management and management in gener-
al. His book “Goal Directed Project Management” (written with Kristoffer Grude and Tor Haug) is
translated into several languages.

Do you need participants in a

survey for an upcoming
research project? Please contact

Highly skilled and trained project management Lisa Fisher at

professionals are perfect candidates for +1-828-293-0421
participating in your questionnaire.
for more details.
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and/or you can select from over 100 industries
and occupations.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 11

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This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT

METHOD AND EXTENSIONS
FRANK T. ANBARI, PHD, PMP Project Management Program, Department of Management Science,
School of Business and Public Management, The George Washington University,
2115 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052 USA

Introduction
he earned value project management method is a powerful tool that sup-
ABSTRACT
The earned value project management
method integrates three critical elements
of project management: scope
T ports the management of project scope, time, and cost. It allows the calcu-
lation of cost and schedule variances and performance indices, and
forecasts of project cost and schedule at completion. It provides early indications
management, cost management, and time of expected project results based on project performance and highlights the pos-
management. It requires the periodic sible need for corrective action. As such, it allows the project manager and proj-
monitoring of actual expenditures and ect team to adjust project strategy and to make trade-offs based on project
physical scope accomplishments, and
objectives, actual project performance, and trends, as well as the environment in
allows calculation of cost and schedule
variances, along with performance indices. which the project is being conducted.
It allows forecasting of project cost and The method uses cost and value as the common measures of project per-
schedule at completion and highlights the formance for both cost and schedule parameters. It allows the measurement of
possible need for corrective action. cost and value in dollars, hours, worker days, or any other similar unit.
This paper shows the major aspects of the
This paper shows the major aspects of the earned value method, presents
earned value method and presents graph-
ical tools for assessing project perform- graphical tools that enhance its effectiveness, and provides useful simplifications
ance trends. It provides logical extensions and logical extensions of this important project management method.
and useful simplifications to enhance the
effective application of this important Background
method in project management.
A basic form of the earned value analysis project management method (often
Keywords: earned value method (EVM); referred to as EVA or EVM) can be traced back to industrial engineers on the fac-
earned value management system tory floor in the late 1800s (Fleming & Koppelman, 2000; Kim, 2000). Around
(EVMS); cost variance (CV); schedule 1967, EVM was introduced by agencies of the U.S. federal government as an inte-
variance (SV); cost performance index gral part of the cost/schedule control systems criteria (C/SCSC) and was used in
(CPI); schedule performance index
large acquisition programs. EVM has been widely and successfully used in proj-
(SPI); critical ratio (CR); cost estimate at
completion (EAC); time estimate at com- ects associated with the U.S. federal government, with much less reported use in
pletion (TEAC) private industry. Use of EVM in private industry and support by popular project
management software packages have been limited but have rapidly grown in
©2003 by the Project Management Institute recent years.
Vol. 34, No. 4, 12-23, ISSN 8756-9728/03 To encourage wider use of EVM in the private sector, the U.S. federal govern-
ment decided to discard C/SCSC by the end of 1996 and turned toward a more
flexible earned value management system (EVMS), also called the earned value
project management system (EVPMS). Project Management Institute’s A Guide to
the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (Project Management
Institute, 2000) provided the simplified EVM terminology and formulas.

12 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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There has been a high degree of • Actual cost (AC): This is the cumula- this work package is EV = $20,000 x
EVM acceptance among current and tive AC spent to a given point in time 1.00 = $20,000. Work package 1.2 has
past users of the method. They tend to accomplish an activity, work pack- a total budget of $40,000 and is 50%
to agree that EVM can improve cost, age, or project and to earn the related complete as of the status date.
schedule, and technical performance value. This was previously called the Therefore, the earned value for this
of their projects. EVM nonusers indi- actual cost of work performed work package is EV = $40,000 x 0.50 =
cate that the method is hard to use, (ACWP). Figure 2 illustrates a project $20,000. The earned value for the
that it applies primarily to federal in which the planned value as of the entire project is EV = $20,000 +
projects, and that they do not need it project status date is PV = $50,000 and $20,000 = $40,000.
(Fleming & Koppelman, 2000; the actual cost is AC = $60,000. The preceding formula converts
Kim, 2000). project accomplishments from physi-
This paper simplifies EVM and cal units of measure, e.g., cubic yards
shows its applicability to public and Cost Planned of concrete, linear feet of cable, percent
($000) Value (PV)
private sector projects, regardless of Budget At complete, milestones achieved, or
size. The paper uses the simplified ter- Completion deliverables completed, to financial
60 (BAC)
minology and provides graphical 50 units of measure. These financial
Actual Cost
tools, extensions, and applications of (AC) measurements of value can be in dol-
Status Date
EVM to enhance the use and effective- lars (or any other currency), labor
Time
ness of this important project manage- hours, work hours, worker days, or any
ment method. other similar quantity that can be used
Figure 2. Planned Value and Actual Cost as a common measurement of the
EVM Key Components value and cost associated with project
EVM uses the following project param- • Earned value (EV): This is the cumu- work. Figure 3 illustrates the above
eters to evaluate project performance: lative earned value for the work com- project, in which the total budget at
• Planned value (PV): This is the time- pleted up to a point in time. It completion is BAC = $100,000, the
phased budget baseline (Figure 1). It is represents the amount budgeted for planned value as of the status date is
the approved budget for accomplish- performing the work that was accom- PV = $50,000, the actual cost is AC =
ing the activity, work package, or proj- plished by a given point in time. This $60,000, and the earned value is EV =
ect related to the schedule. It can be was previously called the budgeted $40,000. These are the main basic enti-
viewed as the value to be earned as a cost of work performed (BCWP). To ties in EVM.
function of project work accomplish- obtain EV for an item, multiply its
ments up to a given point in time. This total budget by its completed propor- Performance Measurement
graph of cumulative PV is often tion. Table 1 shows the work break- Cost performance is determined by
referred to as the S-curve (because, down structure (WBS) of a project with comparing the EV to the AC of the
with a little imagination, it looks like a total budget of $100,000. Work pack- activity, work package, or project.
the letter S, or as an abbreviation of the age 1.1 has a total budget of $20,000 Schedule performance is determined
Spending-curve). This was previously and is 100% complete as of the status by comparing the EV to the PV. This
called the budgeted cost of work date. Therefore, the earned value for can be accomplished by calculating the
scheduled (BCWS).

• Budget at completion (BAC): This is ($000)

the total budget baseline for the activi-
ty, work package, or project (Figure 1). Budget % Complete Earned
Project
It is the highest value of PV and the last Value
Phase 1
point on the cumulative PV curve.
Work Package 1.1 20 100 20
Work Package 1.2 40 50 20
........
Cost
Planned Phase 2
value (PV) Budget At
Completion Work Package 2.1 ...
(BAC)
Work Package 2.2 ...
........ ...
........ ...
Time
Total 100 40
Figure 1. Planned Value and Budget
at Completion Table 1. WBS, Budget, % Complete, and Earned Value

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 13

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 14

PV Rate = $100,000 / 40 For the above project, SVP =

Cost Planned
= $2,500 per week -$10,000 / $50,000 = -20 %. This
($000) Value (PV) TV = -$10,000 / $2,500 = means that the project is 20%
Budget At
Completion -4 weeks behind schedule.
60 (BAC)
50
40
Actual Cost
(AC)
TV measurement also can be per-
Earned Status date
Value (EV) formed and reported graphically. This 40

CV and SV ($000)
Time is accomplished by drawing a hori- 20 Good

zontal line from the intersection of 0

SV
Figure 3. Planned Value, Actual Cost and the EV curve with the status date to the -20 Poor
CV
Earned Value
PV curve and reading the distance on -40
variances, the variance percentages, the horizontal time axis (Fleming &
Time
and the performance indices at the Koppelman, 2000), as shown in
desired levels of the WBS. It is interest- Figure 4.
ing to note that these comparisons are In the above formulas, 0 indicates Figure 5. CV and SV Graph
made to the EV, rather than to the that performance is on target. A posi- However, it may be appropriate
baseline PV. tive value indicates good perform- to use EV rather than PV in the
It is important to synchronize the ance. A negative value indicates poor denominator of this formula (J. J.
status date for data in the analysis. This performance. Moder in Cleland & King, 1988). The
can be accomplished by using the con- SVP based on the earned value
cept of accrued cost, which includes (SVev% or SVPev) would be defined
expenditures made but not yet reflect- as: SVPev = SV / EV. For the above
ed in the financial system, to accom- Cost Planned project, SVPev = -$10,000 / $40,000 =
($000) Value (PV)
plish work up to the status date. Budget At -25%. This indicates that the project is
Completion
60
50
(BAC) 25% behind schedule.
SV = -10 CV = -20
Variances 40
Actual Cost
The following formulas are used to cal- (AC) Earned Status date
Value (EV)
culate the variances, generally based Time
4
on cumulative data, also called incep-
2 Good
TV (Weeks)
tion-to-date data and project-to-date Figure 4. Variances 0
data (Figure 4, using the data from the
-2 Poor
above project): Graphical Displays
-4 TV
The cost variance (CV) is a meas- Graphs of variances over time provide
ure of the budgetary conformance of valuable indicators of trends in project Time
actual cost of work performed: CV = performance and of the impact of any
EV – AC. For the above project, CV = corrective actions (Figures 5 and 6). Figure 6. TV Graph
$40,000 – $60,000 = -$20,000.
The schedule variance (SV) is a Variance Percentages SVPev is consistent with the for-
measure of the conformance of actual The following formulas are used to mula for CVP. It points out that SV
progress to the schedule: SV = EV – PV. calculate the variance percentages, occurred while accomplishing EV.
For the above project, SV = $40,000 – generally based on cumulative data Therefore, it may be a better indicator
$50,000 = -$10,000. (Figure 4, using the data from the of project schedule status, as shown
Time variance: The average AC per above project): later in the calculation of the time esti-
time period is often called the spend The cost variance percent (CV% or mate at completion (TEAC).
rate or burn rate. Similarly, the average CVP) is a measure of the budgetary In the above formulas, 0 indicates
PV per time period can be called the conformance of actual cost of work that performance is on target. A posi-
planned accomplishment rate, performed: CVP = CV / EV. For the tive value indicates good perform-
planned value rate, or the PV rate. It is above project, CVP = -$20,000 / ance. A negative value indicates poor
defined as the baseline BAC divided by $40,000 = -50%, which indicates that performance.
the baseline schedule at completion the project is 50% over budget.
(SAC). As a formula, PV Rate = BAC / The schedule variance percent Performance Indices
SAC. Thus, SV can be translated into (SV% or SVP) is a measure of the con- The following formulas are used to cal-
time units by dividing SV by the PV formance of actual progress to the culate the performance indices, general-
Rate. The result is the SV in time units schedule. The following formula has ly based on cumulative data (Figure 4,
or the TV. As a formula, TV = SV / PV been generally used to calculate it using the data from the above project):
Rate. If the above project were sched- (Project Management Institute, 2000): The cost performance index (CPI)
uled for forty weeks, then: SVP = SV / PV. is a measure of the budgetary confor-

14 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 15

mance of actual cost of work per- ures of project performance and to

formed: CPI = EV / AC. For the above 1.4 quantify the “traffic light approach.”
project, CPI = $40,000 / $60,000 = Good We can include the line that indicates

CPI and SPI

1.2
0.67. 1.0 on target performance with the area
The schedule performance index .80 SPI Poor that indicates good performance and
(SPI) is a measure of the conformance .60 CPI use the color green to indicate on tar-
of actual progress to the schedule: SPI get and good (better than target) per-
Time
= EV / PV. For the above project, SPI = formance. We can break the poor
$40,000 / $50,000 = 0.80. performance area into two and use
Figure 7. CPI and SPI Graph
Performance indices can be the color yellow to indicate somewhat
thought of as efficiency ratios. In the SPI being close to target, or, if one of below target performance, and the
above formulas, 1.00 indicates that these indices suggests poor perform- color red to indicate poor perform-
performance is efficient and on target. ance, the other must be indicating ance. It is important for the organiza-
More than 1.00 indicates excellent, good performance. This allows some tion to carefully establish meaningful
highly efficient performance, and less trade-offs to reach the desired project thresholds, acceptable tolerances, or
than 1.00 indicates poor, inefficient goals. critical limits for action on project
performance. A CR of more than 1.00 indicates performance. This helps ensure that
The inverse of the formulas given that the overall project performance is when action is needed, it is highlight-
above has also been used (Anbari, excellent. This may result from both ed, and when action is not needed,
1980; Egan, 1982; Cioffi, 2002; the CPI and SPI being better than tar- tampering and micromanagement are
Webster, 2002). This facilitates use of get, or, if one of these indices is indi- minimized.
the indices in forecasting. Using the cating poor performance, the other For example, performance indices
inverse definition, the CPI for the must be indicating outstanding per- and critical ratios of 1.00 or above can
above project would be $60,000 / formance. This allows extensive trade- be considered green; performance
$40,000 = 1.50, indicating that the offs to reach the desired project goals. indices and critical ratios equal to or
project is running 50% over budget. A CR of less than 1.00 indicates greater than 0.80, but less than 1.00,
Completion of the project would be that the overall project performance is can be considered yellow; and per-
forecasted at $150,000, if performance poor. This may result from both the formance indices below 0.80 can be
continues at this rate. Similarly, the SPI CPI and SPI being worse than target, considered red. In this paper, a black
would be $50,000 / $40,000 = 1.25, or, if one of these indices suggests and white chart depicting this concept
indicating the project is running 25% good performance, the other must be is shown in Figure 9, and is called the
behind schedule. The project would be indicating extremely poor perform- target performance chart. It can be pro-
forecasted to take 25% longer than the ance. This limits the use of effective duced in color and may also be nick-
original schedule, with completion at trade-offs, and highlights significant named the rainbow chart.
1.25 x 40 weeks = 50 weeks, if per- difficulty in attempting to reach the Other colors can also be added.
formance continues at this rate. These desired project goals. For example, orange or amber can be
forecasts are discussed in more detail A graph of the critical ratio over used between yellow and red, or in the
in the forecasting section of this paper. time provides a quick indicator of yellow area to indicate that the item in
Graphs of performance indices trends in the overall project perform- trouble has been previously reviewed.
over time provide valuable indicators ance, and of the impact of any correc- Blue can be used to indicate the super-
of trends in project performance and tive actions. These graphs may be very stars—items with performance indices
the impact of any corrective actions. effective in project reviews (Figure 8). above 1.20, for example (Figure 9).
These graphs can be very effective in Some may say that such superstar
project reviews (Figure 7). items must have had inflated baseline
budgets and schedules. However, there
1.4
The Critical Ratio Good
may be important lessons to be
1.2
The critical ratio (CR) is the product of learned from these items in terms of
1.0
CR

CPI and SPI (Anbari, 2001; Lewis, estimating, budgeting, performance

.80 Poor
2001). It can also be called the cost- management, and cost control.
.60
schedule index (CSI) (Barr, 1996; CR Reallocation of organizational
Meredith & Mantel, 2000). It is used as Time resources may be another outcome
an indicator of the overall project from such analyses (Lewis, 2001).
health: CR = CPI x SPI. For the above Figure 8. CR Graph An activity, work package, or proj-
project, CR = 0.67 x 0.80 = 0.53. ect should be carefully reviewed when
A CR of 1.00 indicates that the Quantifying the Traffic Light Approach it enters the yellow zone, with the
overall project performance is on tar- Graphs of CPI, SPI, and CR can be intent of finding the root cause(s) of
get. This may result from both CPI and used to further highlight these meas- performance or planning problems

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 15

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 16

and eliminating them. When an item affecting the activity, work package, or ciencies observed to date will prevail to
in the red zone is reviewed, this should project, a new ETC needs to be devel- completion, the EAC3 is the sum of
generally be a status report on oped; EAC1 is the sum of the cumula- the cumulative AC plus the original
action(s) taken or not taken when that tive AC plus the ETC. As a formula, budget for the remaining work (BAC –
item was in the yellow zone. When an EAC1 = AC + ETC. For the example EV), modified by a performance factor,
item enters the blue zone, it also project used in this paper, EAC1 = which is usually the cumulative CPI.
would be appropriate to review it, to $60,000 + ETC. This applies where As a formula, EAC3 = AC + (BAC – EV)
obtain information on the root ETC is developed for the remaining / CPI. For the above project:
cause(s) of the super performance, and work. EAC1 may also be called the EAC3 = $60,000 + ($100,000 –
incorporate the lessons learned into revised cost estimate (RCE), latest $40,000) / 0.67
future work. revised estimate (LRE), or current = $60,000 + $60,000 / 0.67
working estimate (CWE). = $60,000 + $90,000
Using the above assumption, the = $150,000
ETC for the remainder of the activity, The above formula can be
1.4
work package, or project usually is simplified as follows:
CPI, SPI, and CR

Super Stars
1.2
Good developed using various cost estimat- EAC3 = AC + (BAC – EV) / CPI
1.0
Caution ing methods. Because the work already = AC + BAC / CPI – EV / CPI
.80
SPI is in progress, a detailed, bottom-up = AC + BAC / CPI – AC
.60 CPI Poor
CR
cost estimate for the remaining work is = BAC / CPI
Time common in this case. Thus:
When current analysis shows that EAC3 = BAC / CPI
Figure 9. Target Performance Chart past performance is not a good predic- The definition of EAC3 can there-
tor of future performance, that prob- fore be simplified to equal the original
Forecasting lems or opportunities which affected BAC divided by the CPI. For the above
Project management is primarily con- performance in the past will not occur project, EAC3 = $100,000 / 0.67 =
cerned with decisions affecting the in the future, and that future perform- $150,000. EAC3 may also be called the
future. Therefore, forecasting and pre- ance will parallel the original plan, the statistical estimate at completion
diction are extremely important EAC2 is the sum of the cumulative AC (EACstat), the mathematical estimate at
aspects of project management. EVM is plus the original budget for the completion (EACmath), or simply the
particularly useful in forecasting the remaining work (BAC – EV): EAC2 = cost at completion (CAC).
cost and time of the project at comple- AC + BAC – EV. For the above project, Using the above assumption, the
tion, based on actual performance up EAC2 = $60,000 + $100,000 – $40,000 estimated cost to complete the remain-
to any given point in the project. = $120,000. der of the activity, work package, or
The above formula can be simpli- project is the original budget for the
Forecasting of Cost at Completion fied as follows: remaining work divided by the CPI. As
The EAC may also be called cost esti- EAC2 = AC + BAC – EV a formula, ETC = (BAC – EV) / CPI.
mate at completion (CEAC). The esti- = BAC + (AC – EV) This may be called statistical estimate
mated cost to complete the remainder = BAC – (EV – AC) to complete (ETCstat) or the mathe-
of the project is usually called the esti- = BAC – CV matical estimate to complete
mate to complete (ETC). Both can be Thus: (ETCmath).
developed using various cost estimat- EAC2 = BAC – CV A graph of the EAC over time
ing methods or calculated mathemati- The definition of EAC2 can there- provides a valuable indicator of
cally using EVM. fore be simplified to equal the original trends in project cost performance
EACs may differ based on the baseline BAC minus the CV. For the and the impact of any corrective
assumptions made about future per- above project, EAC2 = $100,000 – (- actions. This graph can be particular-
formance. The PMBOK® Guide (Project $20,000) = $100,000 + $20,000 = ly effective in project reviews. Figure
Management Institute, 2000) provides $120,000. 10 shows a graph of EAC for the
three such estimates, based on three Using the above assumption, the example project used in this paper,
different assumptions. In this section, ETC for the remainder of the activity, using the above assumption.
these estimates are reviewed, simpli- work package, or project is the original
fied and enhanced. They are given a budget for the remaining work (BAC – Additional Forecasts of Cost
sequential subscript to differentiate EV). at Completion
among them. When current analysis shows that Other assumptions can be made about
When current analysis shows that past performance is a good predictor future performance and may result in
the assumptions underlying the origi- of future performance, that perform- different estimates at completion. In
nal estimate are flawed, or no longer ance to date will continue into the this section, other assumptions and
applicable due to changed conditions future, and that efficiencies or ineffi- the resulting EACs are presented. They

16 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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it acknowledges that cost management higher than the original baseline BAC.
160 and schedule management are insepa- As a formula, EAC6 >> BAC. This esti-
EAC
140 rable (Kerzner, 2001). As examples: mate is generally not quantified, but is
Project schedules can be crashed at an referred to by project team members
EAC ($000)

120 Poor
BAC
100 additional cost, or less skilled with statements such as: “If you think
80 Good resources may be used on the project, this is bad, wait till you see the next
60 which may reduce the cost and possi- report! You ain’t seen nothing yet!” or
bly extend the duration. “The cost is going sky high. If this
Time The assumption implied by the project ever finishes, it would be a
above formula is that if the activity, miracle!”
Figure 10. EAC Graph
work package, or project were behind This case may result from delaying
are given a continuing sequential sub- schedule, additional cost would be corrective action and believing for too
script to differentiate among them. incurred to bring the project back on long that the actual cost at completion
In some organizations, it is com- schedule, through the use of overtime, somehow would end up close to the
mon to state that the activity, work additional resources, expediting ship- original baseline BAC, regardless of
package, or project will meet the orig- ments, and similar actions. On the prior poor performance. Higher costs,
inal targets upon completion, regard- other hand, if the activity, work pack- lower levels of accomplishment, and
less of prior performance. This age, or project were ahead of schedule, inefficient spending patterns become
frequently occurs early in the project opportunities for significant cost sav- practically irreversible and the project’s
when prior performance has been ings may be pursued, although they fate is sealed. Statistics of challenged
poor. The EAC4 would be the original may require more time as a result of and failed projects testify that this case
baseline BAC. As a formula, EAC4 = using resources that are fewer in num- is much more common than we would
BAC. Statements such as the following ber, less experienced, and/or less like to believe.
may be heard: “We had some mobi- skilled. Additional time may also be
lization problems, but we took care of required to find better prices for equip- EACs
them. We expect the project to finish ment and material, negotiate better 160
on schedule and on budget.” or “The contract terms, use more economical 140

EACs ($000)
original specs were unclear. So we shipping methods, or take similar 120 Poor
BAC
took additional time to clarify them. actions. This formula may provide a 100

We are planning to meet project tar- better indication of estimated cost at 80 Good
gets at this time.” completion, when adherence to a 60
The above statements should be schedule is critical to the organization.
Time
challenged firmly, with a response Using the earlier definition of CR
such as: “What we hear you say is that = CPI x SPI, and further defining EAC5
Figure 11. EACs Graph
future performance will be so much or EACs as the EAC adjusted for sched-
better than the original plan and will ule performance, the above formula The Standish Group conducted
make up for prior cost overruns (and can be restated as follows: EAC5 = surveys and interviews to explore what
delays). So far, we have not performed EACs = BAC / CR. For the above proj- causes information technology (IT)
to the original plan and would like to ect, EAC5 = EACs = $100,000 / 0.53 = software development projects to be
know how this superior performance $187,500. challenged and why these projects fail.
will be achieved.” Using the above assumption, the These studies classified projects into
EAC 4 is rarely achieved. ETC for the remainder of the activity, three types:
Unmanaged projects do not fix them- work package, or project is the original Successful: The project is complet-
selves. They only tend to overrun budget for the remaining work divided ed on time and on budget, with all fea-
their budgets, fall behind their sched- by the CR: (BAC – EV) / CR. This may tures and functions as originally
ules, and often miss other scope and be called the ETC adjusted for schedule specified;
quality targets. performance (ETCs). A graph of the Challenged: The project is com-
Heinze (1996) provides the follow- EACs over time provides a valuable pleted and operational but is over
ing additional formula for calculating indicator of trends in project cost per- budget, beyond the time estimate, and
the EAC: EAC = BAC / CPI x SPI. formance and the impact of any cor- offers fewer features and functions
Fleming & Koppelman (2000) provide rective actions. This graph can be very than initially specified;
a similar formula and support it by effective in project reviews. Figure 11 Failed: The project is canceled
indicating that there is a human ten- shows a graph of EACs for the example before completion.
dency to get back on schedule, even if project used in this paper, using the The Standish Group study con-
that requires more resources for the above assumption. ducted in 1994 and published in 1995
same work. The above formula may be A case that is not often mentioned (The Standish Group, 1995) had a
mathematically questionable. However, occurs when the EAC6 is substantially total sample of 365 respondents repre-

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 17

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senting 8,380 projects. The results of A graph of the VAC over time pro- weeks, meaning that the cumulative AT
that research showed that 16% of IT vides a valuable indicator of trends in is 20 weeks. Therefore: TEAC1 = 20 +
projects were successful, 53% were project cost performance and the TETC weeks. In this case, TETC needs
challenged, and 31% failed. impact of any corrective actions. This to be developed for the remaining
Comparisons to subsequent studies graph can be effective in project work. TEAC1 may also be called the
are shown in Table 2 (The Standish reviews. Figure 12 shows a VAC graph revised schedule or current schedule.
Group, 1999): for the example project used in this When current analysis shows that
paper, using the above assumption. past schedule performance is not a
good predictor of future schedule per-
Year of Study Successful Challenged Failed
Completion Time Forecasting formance, that problems or opportuni-
1994 16% 53% 31%
EVM has not been widely used to esti- ties which affected schedule
1996 27% 33% 40%
mate the total time at completion, performance in the past will not occur
1998 26% 46% 28%
total project duration, or schedule for in the future, and that future schedule
Table 2. Project Resolution HIstory an activity, work package, or project performance will parallel the original
based on actual performance up to a plan, TEAC2 is the sum of the cumula-
The Treasury Board of Canada given point in the project. However, tive AT plus the original scheduled
Secretariat (2000–2002) supported using assumptions and logic similar to time for the remaining work. This can
findings of The Standish Group, indi- those discussed above, the project’s be simplified to the original baseline
cated similarities to results of reviews time estimate at completion (TEAC) SAC minus the TV (Fleming &
of Canadian government IT projects and time variance at completion Koppelman, 2000). As a formula,
and presented a framework for the (TVAC) can be calculated based on the TEAC2 = SAC – TV. For the above proj-
management of these projects. baseline schedule at completion (SAC) ect, TEAC2 = 40 – (-4) = 40 + 4 = 44
A survey of IT projects by Sauer and actual performance up to any weeks.
and Cuthbertson (2002) covered vari- given point in the project (Anbari, The above is the total estimated
ous industry sectors and government 2001 and 2002). schedule duration that would have
in the United Kingdom, and had a been obtained using the critical path
usable sample size of 565 projects. It method (CPM) or the program evalua-
showed that 5% of all projects were 40
tion and review technique (PERT), if
reported to have been abandoned 20 Good the schedule slippage of four weeks
VAC ($000)

prior to or during implementation, 0 were on the critical path.

55% of projects exceeded budget, 27% -20
When current analysis shows that
Poor
came in exactly on budget, and 8% -40
past schedule performance is a good
came in below budget. Performance, VAC predictor of future schedule perform-
measured by attainment of initially Time ance, that performance to date will
agreed upon specifications, averaged continue into the future, and that
above 80%. Across the whole sample, Figure 12. VAC Graph schedule efficiencies, or inefficiencies,
56% delivered 90% to 99% of the observed to date will prevail to com-
specifications, approximately 20% of In this section, various time esti- pletion, TEAC3 is the sum of the
projects delivered less than 80% of the mates are presented and given a cumulative AT plus the original sched-
specifications, and a sprinkling of proj- sequential subscript to differentiate uled time for the remaining work,
ects exceeded the specifications. among them, following the same pat- modified by the cumulative SPI. This
tern used previously for the cost esti- can be simplified to the original base-
Variance at Completion: mate at completion. line SAC divided by the SPI. As a for-
The variance at completion (VAC) When current analysis shows that mula, TEAC3 = SAC / SPI. For the
gives an indication of the estimated assumptions underlying the original above project, TEAC3 = 40 / 0.80 = 50
cost underrun or overrun at the com- time estimate were flawed or no longer weeks.
pletion of the project. As a formula, applicable due to changed conditions The above example indicates that
VAC = BAC – EAC. For the above proj- affecting the activity, work package, or the project is estimated to be complet-
ect, using BAC = 100,000 and EAC3 = project, a new schedule, duration esti- ed 25% behind schedule: (40 weeks –
150,000, VAC = 100,000 – 150,000 = mate, or time estimate to complete 50 weeks) / 40 weeks = -10 weeks / 40
-50,000. (TETC) needs to be developed, and the weeks = -0.25 = -25%.
In the above equation, 0 indi- TEAC1 is the sum of the cumulative AT A graph of the TEAC over time
cates that the project is forecasted to plus the TETC. As a formula, TEAC1 = provides a valuable indicator of
be completed on budget. A positive AT + TETC. trends in project schedule perform-
value indicates a forecasted under- The example project used in this ance and the impact of any corrective
run. A negative value indicates a paper has an original baseline SAC of actions. This graph can be effective in
forecasted overrun. 40 weeks, and its status date is 20 project reviews. Figure 13 shows a

18 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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graph of TEAC, for the example proj- prices for equipment and material, of prior poor performance. Longer
ect used in this paper, using the above negotiate better contract terms using durations, lower levels of accomplish-
assumption. more economical shipping methods, ment, and inefficient schedule achieve-
and similar actions. On the other ment patterns become practically
hand, if an activity, work package, or irreversible, and the project’s fate is
52 TEAC project were running below budget, sealed. Statistics of challenged and
48 opportunities for reducing completion failed projects testify that this case is
TEAC (Weeks)

44 Poor time, reducing cycle time, and expedit- much more common than we would
SAC
40 ing time to market may be pursued, like to believe, as previously discussed
36 Good although they may incur more cost. in the development of EAC6.
32 This may be accomplished through the
use of overtime, additional resources,
Time 70 TEACc
and expediting shipments.
60

TEACc (Weeks)
Figure 13. TEAC Graph Defining TEAC5 or TEACc as the
50 Poor
TEAC adjusted for cost performance, SAC
40
In some organizations, it is com- the following formula would reflect
30 Good
mon to state that the activity, work the above assumption: TEAC5 =
20
package, or project will be on schedule TEACc = SAC / CR. For the above proj-
upon completion, regardless of prior ect, TEAC5 = TEACc = 40 / 0.53 = 75 Time
performance. This frequently occurs weeks. This formula may provide a bet-
early in the project, when prior sched- ter indication of estimated time at Figure 14. TEACc Graph
ule performance has been poor. The completion, when adherence to budg-
TEAC4 would be the original baseline et is critical to the organization. TEAC5 Time variance at completion: The
SAC. As a formula, TEAC4 = SAC. may also be called the time estimate at TVAC gives an indication of the esti-
Statements similar to those mentioned completion adjusted for cost perform- mated amount of time that the project
earlier in the cost discussion may be ance (TEACc). will be completed ahead or behind
heard. In some disciplines, such as A graph of TEACc over time pro- schedule: TVAC = SAC – TEAC. For the
software development, it is common vides a valuable indicator of trends in above project, using SAC = 40 and
to conclude these statements saying, project schedule performance and the TEAC3 = 50: TVAC = 40 – 50 = -10
“We’ll catch up during the testing impact of any corrective actions. This weeks.
phase!” Several modifiers to the word graph can be very effective in project In the above equation, 0 indicates
“test” have been developed, which may reviews. Figure 14 shows a graph of that the project is expected to be com-
increase the likelihood of catching up. TEACc, for the example project used pleted on schedule. A positive value
They include: alpha test, beta test, user in this paper, using the above indicates that the project is expected to
test, stress test, acceptance test, and assumption. be completed ahead of schedule. A
parallel test. Such statements should A case that is not mentioned negative value indicates that the proj-
be challenged firmly, with a response often occurs when the TEAC6 is sub- ect is expected to be completed behind
similar to that mentioned earlier in the stantially higher than the original schedule.
cost discussion. baseline SAC. As a formula, TEAC6 >> A graph of TVAC over time pro-
TEAC4 is rarely achieved. Again, SAC. This estimate is generally not vides a valuable indicator of trends
unmanaged projects do not fix them- quantified, but is referred to by proj- in project schedule performance and
selves. They only tend to fall behind ect team members with statements the impact of any corrective actions.
their schedules, overrun their budgets, similar to those mentioned earlier in This graph can be effective in project
and often miss other scope and quality the cost discussion. At times, this case reviews. Figure 15 shows a graph of
targets. occurs in the later phases of a project, TVAC, for the example project used
Recalling that cost performance when team members have no other in this paper, using the above
and schedule performance are insepa- planned assignments, and the organi- assumption.
rable, the assumption can be made zation is “right sizing.” Quality prob-
that if an activity, work package, or lems become apparent, and CPM, PERT, and EVM
project were running over budget, additional time is requested to fix var- As mentioned above in the develop-
additional time may be needed to ious problems. Sometimes a lot of ment of TEAC2, an underlying
bring the project back on budget. This additional time is needed. assumption of the CPM and the PERT
may be accomplished by reducing Again, this case may result from is that future performance will parallel
resources applied to the project, using delaying corrective action and believ- the original plan, unless changes are
fewer paid resources, many of which ing for too long that the project would made to the original plan time, logic,
are less experienced and less skilled, somehow be completed close to the or cost.
taking additional time to find better original baseline schedule, regardless The example project used in this

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 19

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paper has an original baseline SAC of meetings. Both mathematical forecasts % Complete = $40,000 / $100,000
40 weeks. With a status date of 20 and subjective forecasts would be = 0.40 = 40%
weeks, TV = -4 weeks. If TV represented included in project performance % Spent = $60,000 / $100,000
a schedule slippage of 4 weeks on the reports. This effort highlights perform- = 0.60 = 60%
critical path, CPM and PERT would esti- ance deviations for work area man- CPI = % Complete / % Spent
mate a completion time of 44 weeks. agers, encourages them to consider = 40 / 60 = 0.67
This is the same as: TEAC2 = SAC – TV appropriate, timely actions, and incor- The above allows a further
= 40 – (-4) = 40 + 4 = 44 weeks. porates their close, detailed knowledge simplification
of performance in their areas, which (Slemaker, 1985) of the EAC3:
may not be evident from the reported EAC3 = BAC / CPI
values. At a minimum, this effort may = BAC / (% Complete /
10 help avoid surprises and arguments % Spent)
TVAC (Weeks)

5 Good
over the numbers during project = (BAC x % Spent) /
0 review meetings. % Complete
-5 Poor Forecasting in project manage- = AC / % Complete
-10 TVAC ment may well be a self-defeating Thus: EAC3 = AC / % Complete
Time prophecy, and that may be good for The definition of EAC3 can be fur-
the organization. Large deviations usu- ther simplified to the AC divided by
ally attract management’s attention the percent complete. For the above
Figure 15. TVAC Graph
and result in corrective action. Small project, EAC3 = $60,000 / 0.40 =
CPM and PERT initially assume deviations are usually left alone. By $150,000.
that problems or opportunities that quantifying and highlighting such Similarly, the TEAC3 can be sim-
affected performance in the past will deviations, EVM helps focus manage- plified to: TEAC3 = AT / % Complete.
not occur in the future and that past ment’s interest on projects or work The example project used in this paper
performance is not a good predictor of packages that need the most attention. has an original baseline SAC of 40
future performance. As a result, EVM supports effective weeks, and the status date is 20 weeks,
The assumption generally associ- management of projects and work which means that the cumulative AT is
ated with EVM is that past perform- packages collectively and enhances 20 weeks. Therefore: TEAC3 = 20 / 0.40
ance is a good predictor of future management of the enterprise’s project = 50 weeks.
performance, that performance to date portfolio (Anbari, 1983). Forecasting Similarly, the following is derived
will continue into the future, and that using these techniques provides a uni- (Anbari, 1980):
efficiencies or inefficiencies observed form approach to project reviews, CPI = % Complete / % Spent
to date will prevail to completion. building confidence in the project out- = (Actual Production /
Therefore, the EAC3 is generally asso- come as time progresses. Changing Total Scope) /
ciated with EVM. Similarly, the TEAC3 project evaluation methods during the (Actual Cost /
can be associated with EVM. project duration can result in no Total Budget)
Therefore: TEAC3 = SAC / SPI = 40 / meaningful data for decision-making. = (Actual Production /
0.80 = 50 weeks. Total Scope) x
Which of the above forecasts will Further Extensions, Issues (Total Budget /
materialize depends greatly on deci- and Applications Actual Cost)
sions and actions taken by the project = (Total Budget /
manager, the project team, and the Extensions Total Scope) x
organization. Some like to add luck to Using the above definitions, the fol- (Actual Production /
the factors affecting project outcomes. lowing is derived (Slemaker, 1985): Actual Cost)
Others observe that good luck tends to % Complete = EV / BAC = (Total Budget /
be directly associated with better plan- % Spent = AC / BAC Total Scope) /
ning and better decisions. Taking the ratio of the above two (Actual Cost /
formulas Actual Production)
Project Forecasting (Anbari, 1980): = Planned Unit Cost /
It is advisable to ask work package % Complete / % Spent Actual Unit Cost
managers, project leaders, and func- = (EV / BAC) / (AC / BAC) Thus: CPI = Planned Unit Cost /
tional managers to review cost and = EV / AC Actual Unit Cost
schedule mathematical forecasts and = CPI The additional formulas devel-
to provide their own subjective fore- Thus: oped in this section provide a more
casts for their own work areas in CPI = % Complete / % Spent intuitive understanding of CPI based
advance of issuing project performance For the example project used in on information readily available in
reports and conducting project review this paper: many organizations. The first formula

20 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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for CPI uses information widely ble, collecting 50% of the contract centage of the value associated with
known in project environments, and price for each of these items. the milestone based on subjective esti-
the second formula for CPI uses infor- The 0/100 rule can also be used. mates. When the predefined, tangible
mation widely known in production This rule specifies that the value is criteria for the milestone are met, the
environments: earned only when the item is complet- balance of the value associated with
CPI = % Complete / % Spent ed and is usually used in work pack- the milestone is earned (Fleming &
CPI = Planned Unit Cost / ages having a short duration (Kerzner, Koppelman, 2000). These approaches
Actual Unit Cost 2001). This rule can also be called the may help alleviate the “95% complete
weighted milestone method, where the and stays there forever” syndrome.
Issues in the Determination of value is earned only when the mile- For level of effort items such as
Percent Complete stone is physically completed, and one project management, customer sup-
Determination of the percent complete or more milestones are planned in port, and other support work during a
or proportion complete of an activity, each performance-reporting period given period of time in a project, the
work package, or project is a necessary (Fleming & Koppelman, 2000). effort itself is the end product.
but challenging task in many organiza- Contractors may consider the 0/100 Therefore, the earned value can be con-
tions. This task becomes even more rule harsh. When a contractor is paid sidered to be equal to the effort
demanding when dealing with new, based on this rule, it is reasonable to applied or the actual cost.
emerging, or softer technology proj- expect that the contractor will strive to
ects, such as telecommunications, soft- have a very detailed WBS that breaks Applications
ware development, architectural or the project down to as many items as EVM provides project managers and
engineering design, and research and possible, so that completion of item(s) the organization with triggers or early
development. can be shown regularly and payment warning signals that allow them to take
Alternatives to using the percent can be authorized. timely actions in response to indicators
complete to determine physical Other alternatives for determining of poor performance and enhance the
accomplishments have been used. The physical accomplishments can be opportunities for project success. Such
50/50 rule specifies that 50% of an used. For example, the 10/90 rule, indicators have been found to be reli-
item’s budget is recorded at the time 20/80 rule, and 25/75 rule acknowl- able as early as 15% into a project.
that the work is scheduled to begin, edge that to start a work package, a cer- Better planning and resource allocation
and the remaining 50% is recorded tain amount of preparation and associated with the early periods of a
when the work is scheduled to be com- mobilization are needed. Therefore, project might be the cause of this relia-
pleted. If the project had a large num- 10%, 20%, or 25% of the value would bility (Fleming & Koppelman, 2000).
ber of items, the distortion from the be considered earned when the work is EVM can be used for progress pay-
50/50 rule would be minimal started, and the remaining amount ments to contractors based on the EV
(Kerzner, 2001), because these items would be earned when the work is of contracted or outsourced work.
would be at various stages of comple- completed. If the work package were Because such contractual arrangements
tion. This allows us to calculate PV. front-end loaded, as might be the case create legal and financial obligations, it
Similarly, to calculate EV, 50% of an with certain equipment acquisitions, is important to consider the method
item’s budget is recorded when the then the inverse of these rules might be specified for evaluating progress. The
work begins, and the remaining 50% is appropriate. For example, the 75/25 previously discussed alternatives for
recorded when the work is completed. rule might specify that 75% of the determination of percent complete
To make the 50/50 rule work success- value would be considered earned should be carefully considered and
fully, the project should be broken when the equipment is delivered, and negotiated to achieve a fair and equi-
down into very detailed, short-span the remaining amount is earned when table environment that encourages suc-
work packages (Fleming & installation, testing, and commission- cessful accomplishment of contracted
Koppelman, 2000). ing are completed. or outsourced project items.
The 50/50 rule is a common prac- The percent complete method can For long-term projects, it may be
tice in a number of contractual be used with a buffer that sets a ceiling appropriate to consider incorporating
arrangements, such as those for home of about 80% or 90% upon reported the time value of money and time-dis-
repair. Half of the contract price is completion. A work package may earn counted cash flows into EVM. Inflation
paid up front, and the remaining bal- only up to the specified percent ceiling can be explicitly considered in EVM,
ance is paid upon completion of the based on subjective estimates. When and the inflation variance (IV) can be
work. It should be noted that when the work package is 100% complete, calculated (Farid & Karshenas, 1988).
the 50/50 rule is used in a contractual the balance is earned. A variation of However, these considerations add
arrangement and the contractor is this approach is using a combination complexity to the method and may be
paid based on this rule, it is reason- of the percent complete and a mile- justifiable only for very long-term proj-
able to expect that the contractor will stone gate. A work package may earn ects or in very high inflation periods or
tend to start as many items as possi- only up to a maximum specified per- economies.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 21

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 22

An organization may elect to 0.67 = $150,000 Analysis Method [CD-ROM].

apply EVM uniformly to all of its proj- EAC3 = AC / % Complete = 60,000 / Proceedings of the Project Management
ects, or only to projects exceeding its 0.40 = $150,000 Institute 2001 Seminars & Symposium,
own thresholds for cost and schedule VAC = BAC - EAC = $100,000 - November 1-10, 2001, Nashville, TN,
reporting and control. EVM can be $150,000 = -$50,000 USA. Newtown Square, PA: Project
applied to projects of various types and Management Institute.
sizes in the public and private sectors. EAC5 = EACs = BAC / CR = $100,000/ Anbari, F.T. (2002). Quantitative
It can be applied at various levels of a 0.53 = $187,500 Methods for Project Management, Second
project’s WBS and to various cost com- Edition. New York, NY: International
ponents, such as labor, material and TEAC3 = SAC / SPI = 40 weeks / Institute for Learning.
subcontractors. 0.80 = 50 weeks Barr, Z. (1996). Earned Value
TEAC3 = AT / % Complete = 20 / Analysis: A Case Study. PM Network, X
Comprehensive Example 0.40 = 50 weeks (12), 31-37.
A project has a baseline BAC of TVAC = SAC – TEAC = 40 weeks – Cioffi, D. F. (2002). Managing
$100,000 and a baseline SAC of 40 50 weeks = -10 weeks Project Integration. Vienna, VA:
weeks. The baseline indicates that by Management Concepts.
the end of week 20, the project is Conclusion Cleland, D.I., & King, W.R.
planned to be 50% complete. At the EVM helps focus management’s inter- (Editors). (1988). Project Management
end of week 20, it is reported that 40% est on projects that need most atten- Handbook, (2nd. Ed.). New York, NY:
of the project work has been complet- tion and may aid the prioritization and Van Nostrand Reinhold.
ed at a cost of $60,000. Using the EVM emphasis management gives projects Egan, Jr., D.S. (1982). The
method: within a portfolio, enhancing the Performance Index: Combining Cost
BAC = $100,000 enterprise’s project portfolio manage- and Production Data to Show How
SAC = 40 weeks ment. EVM provides important infor- Good (or Bad) Your Project Really Is!!
mation for project or work package Proceedings of the 7. Internet World
PV = 50% x $100,000 decision-making. Its wider acceptance Congress on Project Management, 1982,
= $50,000 and effectiveness may depend on bet- Copenhagen, Denmark, PROJEKT-
AC = $60,000 ter understanding of its capabilities. PLAN, The Danish Project
EV = 40% x $100,000 Simplification of EVM calculations, Management Society, The Danish
= $40,000 use of graphical tools to enhance Technical Press, Denmark, 355-364.
AT = 20 weeks understanding of performance trends, Farid, F., & Karshenas, S.
Therefore: and successful application of EVM in (November, 1988). Cost/Schedule
% Complete = EV / BAC industry are important factors for the Control Systems Criteria Under
= $40,000 / $100,000 = 40% growth and effective use of this valu- Inflation. Project Management Journal,
% Spent = AC / BAC = $60,000 / able method in project management. XIX (5), 23-29.
$100,000 = 60% Fleming, Q.W., & Koppelman, J.M.
References (2000). Earned Value Project
CV = EV – AC = $40,000 – Anbari, F.T. (1980). An Operating Management, (2nd Ed.). Newtown
$60,000 = -$20,000 Management Control System for Large Square, PA: Project Management
SV = EV – PV = $40,000 – Scale Projects. Unpublished paper pre- Institute.
$50,000 = -$10,000 sented at The Decision Sciences Institute Heinze, K. (1996). Cost
Ninth Annual Meeting, Northeast Management of Capital Projects. New
PV Rate = BAC / SAC = $100,000 / Regional Conference, Philadelphia, PA. York: Marcel Dekker, Inc.
40 weeks = $2,500 per week Sponsored by the Northeast Decision Kerzner, H. (2001). Project
TV = SV / PV Rate = - $10,000 / Sciences Institute. Management: A Systems Approach to
$2,500 per week = -4 weeks Anbari, F.T. (1983). An Operating Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling,
System for Forecasting Project Cost at (7th Ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley &
CPI = EV / AC = $40,000 / Completion. Unpublished paper pre- Sons.
$60,000 = 0.67 sented at The Third International Kim, E.H. (2000). A Study on the
CPI = % Complete / Symposium on Forecasting, Philadelphia, Effective Implementation of Earned Value
% Spent = 40% / 60% = 0.67 PA. Abstract in Program sponsored by Management Methodology, Unpublished
SPI = EV / PV = $40,000 / The International Institute of doctoral dissertation. The George
$50,000 = 0.80 Forecasters in collaboration with the Washington University, Washington,
Wharton School, University of DC.
CR = CPI x SPI = 0.67 x 0.80 Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA. Lewis, J.P. (2001). Project Planning,
= 0.53 Anbari, F. T. (2001). Applications Scheduling, & Control: A Hands-On
EAC3 = BAC / CPI = $100,000 / and Extensions of the Earned Value Guide to Bringing Projects In On Time

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PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 23

and On Budget, (3rd Ed.). New York, Control Systems. Princeton, NJ: Petrocelli search/PDFpages/[Link].
NY: McGraw-Hill. Books. The Standish Group. (1994). The
Meredith, J.R., & Mantel, Jr., S. J. Sauer, C., & Cuthbertson, C. Chaos Report. Retrieved June 29, 2003,
(2000). Project Management: A (2002). UK project management is from [Link]/sam-
Managerial Approach, (4th Ed.). New healthier than supposed, ple_research/chaos_1994_1.php.
York, NY: John Wiley & Sons. [Link] survey suggests. Treasury Board of Canada
Project Management Institute Retrieved June 29, 2003, from Secretariat. (2000-2002). About the
(PMI). (2000). A Guide to the Project [Link]/pmsurveyre- Enhanced Management Framework.
Management Body of Knowledge. sults/[Link]# Retrieved on June 29, 2003, from
Newtown Square, PA: Project The Standish Group. (1999). [Link]/emf-cag/about/abu-
Management Institute. Chaos: A Recipe for Success. ans01_e.asp.
Slemaker, M.S. (1985). The Retrieved June 29, 2003, from Webster, J.S. (2002). Meaningful
Principles and Practice of Cost/Schedule [Link]/sample_re Metrics. PM Network, 16 (11), 34-39.

FRANK T. ANBARI, is a faculty member of the Project Management Program at The George Washington
University. He has taught in the graduate programs at Drexel University, Pennsylvania State University,
University of Texas at Dallas, and at the International Institute for Learning.

Dr. Anbari gained extensive industrial experience serving in project leadership positions at the National
Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak), Day and Zimmermann, and American Water Works Service
Company. He served as examiner (1993-1995) and alumni examiner (1999-2000) for the Malcolm
Baldrige National Quality Award, as member of the Editorial Review Boards of Quality Management Journal
(1993-1998) and Project Management Journal (2000-Present), and as member of the Panel of Referees of
the International Journal of Project Management (2003-Present).

C A L L F O R P A P E R S
Project Management Journal solicits unpublished
papers in project management and allied fields.
The Editor of the Project Management Journal is actively seeking submissions
of previously unpublished research papers, commentaries, and dissertations
as related to all aspects of project management.
For more information on publishing in PMJ, please see the Notes for Authors published in
this issue of the journal, or access them from the PMI® website at [Link].
Questions about submissions may be addressed to the PMJ Editor at

[Link]@[Link]
or via mail to:
PMJ Editor
PMI Publishing Department
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Newtown Square, PA 19073

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 23

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 24

This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

A CRITICAL LOOK AT CRITICAL CHAIN

PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TZVI RAZ, Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69978, Israel

ROBERT BARNES, Consultant, The iE3 Group Ltd, 162 Chelsea View Drive,
Birkenhead, Auckland, New Zealand

DOV DVIR, School of Management, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, [Link] 653,
Beer Sheva 84105, Israel

Introduction
ritical Chain Project Management (CCPM), which was developed and pub-
ABSTRACT
Critical Chain Project Management
(CCPM) has emerged in the last few years
as a novel approach for managing proj-
C licized by Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt (1997) in his book Critical Chain, is a
novel approach for managing projects. Goldratt is well known in the oper-
ations management community as the inventor of the Theory of Constraints
ects. In this paper the authors analyze the (TOC). TOC is a tool for managing repetitive production systems based on the
principles of CCPM, starting with a review principle that every system has a constraint, and system performance can only be
of its key elements: reduction of duration improved by enhancing the performance of the constraining resource. CCPM is
estimates; buffer calculations; task com-
an extension of TOC designed specifically for project environments. In the origi-
pletion notification; progress measure-
ment; and priority setting. The authors nal book, as well as in the writings of its proponents, e.g., Newbold (1998),
continue with a CCPM critical analysis Simpson and Lynch (1999), Homer (1998), and Leach (1999), CCPM is present-
using evidence in the research literature ed as an alternative to the classical methods for project planning and control,
and in practice. The points addressed such as those contained in the management and engineering textbooks and those
include duration estimation practices,
in professional standards, such as PMI’s A Guide to the Project Management Body of
project network structure, stability of the
critical chain, resource productivity under Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide).
multi-tasking, and the project’s organiza- The publication of Goldratt’s book generated some controversy in the project
tional and operational environment. The management community (Globerson, 2000). CCPM proponents claim it is a
place that CCPM occupies in the broader totally new, revolutionary way of thinking that can lead to superior performance
project management context and the
in terms of reducing delivery time and increasing the ability to meet schedule and
costs associated with its adoption are
also considered. The authors’ conclusion budget commitments. Others dismiss this as hype, arguing that experienced proj-
is that although CCPM has a number of ect managers have known the principles behind CCPM for decades, and CCPM’s
valuable concepts, it does not provide a uniqueness is in the terminology rather than in its substance.
complete solution to project management In addition to departing from the commonly accepted practice of project
needs, and that organizations should be
management, CCPM application requires the use of specialized software current-
very careful about the exclusion of con-
ventional project management tech- ly offered by a small number of vendors that are not necessarily the market lead-
niques. ers. As a result, any organization considering CCPM adoption as a way for
improving project performance faces significant costs, both in economic terms
Keywords: scheduling; critical chain and in changes to its culture and work procedures. Consequently, a careful evalu-
ation and assessment of CCPM and its potential to bring about significant and
©2003 by the Project Management Institute sustainable performance improvements is in order.
Vol. 34, No. 4, 24-32, ISSN 8756-9728/03 The purpose of this paper is to provide some guidance to organizations con-
sidering CCPM as an addition or a substitute to their current project management
practices. The paper is organized as follows. The authors begin with a brief
overview of CCPM and a discussion of its key concepts and techniques. This is fol-
lowed by a critical examination of the assumptions behind CCPM that considers

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relevant results from the published research literature and

from the authors’ own consulting practices. Next, the Conventional Project Schedule
authors examine the place CCPM occupies in the PMBOK® Task suffers are hidden
Guide and conclude with an assessment of the benefits and with in individual tasks
Job 1
limitations of CCPM.
Job 2
An Overview of the CCPM Method Job 3
CCPM’s starting point is a list of tasks along with their dura- Job 4
tion estimates and dependencies. The first step consists of CCPM Schedule
developing an initial schedule for project tasks. This is done
Buffers are pooled,
while taking into account the dependencies among the tasks and made explicit
(as reflected in the project network) and the availability of
resources. Because at least some of the resources have limit-
ed availability, the resulting schedule is likely to be longer
than the schedule obtained with the basic Critical Path
Method algorithm, as critical activities are delayed while
waiting for the resources they require. Figure 1. Conventional Schedule and CCPM Schedule With Time Buffers
Shown Explicitly
At this point, CCPM identifies the critical chain as the
set of tasks that results in the longest path to project com- tionships between the original schedule and the CCPM
pletion after resource leveling. The critical chain yields the schedule based on the shortened task durations.
expected project completion date. Resources required by the
tasks on the critical chain are defined as critical resources. So The buffers, which were previously hidden in each task,
far, CCPM is the same as conventional project management have been made explicit and pooled. This pooled buffer is
except for the terminology “critical chain”, which would called the project buffer. Note that by calculating the project
otherwise be called the “leveled critical path”. The next step buffer, the total duration of the project did not increase.
in CCPM planning consists of recalculating the project Under CCPM, the project buffer is considered part of the
schedule based on shortened task duration estimates. The project and, as such, must be scheduled and assigned
rationale for shortening the original duration estimates is as resources. A Gantt chart showing the project buffer serves to
follows: communicate the inherent uncertainty in the project as
• All tasks in the project are subject to some degree of opposed to a conventional Gantt chart that presents a spuri-
uncertainty; ous air of certainty.
• When asked to provide an estimate of the duration, the It is improbable that all the critical chain tasks will
task owner adds a safety margin in order to be almost exceed their 50% likelihood duration estimates. Under the
certain of completing the task on time. This means that, assumption of statistical independence, about half the tasks
in general, task durations are overestimated; will exceed the 50% mark, while the other half will be com-
• In most cases, the task will not require the entire pleted at less than 50%. By pooling together the safety mar-
amount of safety margin and should be completed gins of the individual tasks, the protection against
sooner than scheduled; uncertainty is improved, so CCPM suggests that the com-
• Because the safety margin is internal to the task, if it is bined project buffer can be less than the sum of the safety
not needed, it is wasted. The resources for the next margins of the individual tasks. This argument is supported
task are not available until the scheduled time. by statistical theory that states that the standard deviation of
Therefore, when it becomes obvious that the buffer is the sum of a number of mutually independent random vari-
unnecessary, the task owner will use the buffer time ables (in this case, the actual durations of the tasks on the
anyway, because there is little incentive to finish early. path) is less than the sum of the individual standard devia-
On the other hand, any delays in the completion of tions. Although the assumption of statistical independence
tasks on the critical chain propagate to the successor of task durations is questionable, this justifies reducing the
tasks. Thus, gains are lost, delays are passed on in full, overall duration of the project. In practice, it may be easier
and the project is likely to finish late even if, on aver- to gain task owners’ acceptance of pooling their individual
age, there are enough buffers hidden in the tasks. task buffers if the total is not reduced.
The same process of making safety margins explicit and
CCPM states that original duration estimates are such pooling them can be applied to noncritical paths. As before,
that the likelihood of completion is 95%, and they should the safety margin in each task is identified, taken out, and
be reduced to the point where the likelihood of completion pooled at the end of the path. Because this buffer is placed
is 50%. The difference between the project duration based where the path feeds back into the critical chain path, it is
on new estimates and the original project duration is called called a feeding buffer. Figure 2 shows a simple project net-
the project buffer and should be displayed on the project work where the feeding buffer has been identified. Note that
Gantt chart as a separate task. Figure 1 illustrates the rela- noncritical paths still can have slack, as well as a buffer.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 25

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Project Buffer

Date 1 Date 2

Feeding Buffer

Figure 2. Project Network With Feeding Buffer

According to CCPM, a feeding buffer represents the • If the task is completed past its planned completion
extent of the critical chain’s protection against the uncer- date, as shown on the CCPM schedule, this is no rea-
tainty in the feeding noncritical chain, and its size may be son for immediate concern, as the buffer will absorb
adjusted as desired. Once the size of the feeding buffer has the delay.
been determined, if there is still some slack on the feeding As progress is reported, the CCPM schedule is recalcu-
chain, CCPM prescribes that the task be scheduled as late as lated, keeping the final due date of the project constant by
possible. This is justified on the basis that it reduces waste of adjusting buffer sizes. Project control focuses on consump-
time and work in process on the noncritical tasks while pre- tion of the buffer. Out of proportion buffer consumption is
serving the desired degree of protection of the critical chain. a clear indication for implementing corrective actions, such
The third type of buffer used by CCPM is called a as reassignment of resources to the tasks on the chains lead-
resource buffer, which is a virtual task inserted prior to crit- ing to the buffer in question. In this manner, the extent of
ical chain tasks that require critical resources. Its purpose is buffer utilization serves to monitor the likelihood of project
to issue a signal to the critical resource that a critical chain completion by its committed due date.
task to which they are assigned is due to start shortly. CCPM also provides some guidelines for managing
According to CCPM, this wake-up call will cause the critical multiple projects sharing a common pool of resources.
resource to wrap up any noncritical work and be ready to While scheduling the various projects, CCPM suggests that
start work on the critical chain task as soon as its predeces- we first identify the resource whose availability constrains
sors are completed. The resource buffer does not actually the system (the “drum,” according to TOC terminology) and
consume any resource, and it adds neither time nor cost to then schedule the projects around it. During execution, if a
the project. given resource is required to work simultaneously on sever-
• At this point, CCPM has created a new project schedule, al tasks, CCPM prescribes that priority should be given to
which consists of the original tasks with reduced durations the task of the one project that is in the greatest risk of miss-
and various types of buffers: the project buffer, the feeding ing its committed date, as measured by the remaining frac-
buffer and the resource buffer. tion of project buffer. Of course, working concurrently on
• For project plan execution, CCPM prescribes the tasks that belong to different projects is not allowed.
following principles:
• Resources working on critical chain tasks are expected to CCPM Critique
work continuously on a single task at a time. They do not In this part of the paper the authors consider the main ele-
work on several tasks in parallel or suspend their critical ments of CCPM and analyze them in terms of the validity of
tasks to do other work; the underlying assumptions and the availability of support-
• Resources are to complete the task assigned as soon as pos- ing empirical evidence.
sible, regardless of scheduled dates;
• If the task is completed ahead of schedule, work on its suc- Task Duration and Safety Margins
cessor is to begin immediately. If the task successor utilizes CCPM assumes that all task owners overestimate task dura-
a critical resource for which a resource buffer has been tion by a certain safety factor, and that the duration of the
defined, advance warning is provided to that resource at actual execution of each task will expand to fill the time
the point in time where the resource buffer begins; allotted. In other words, actual task duration is a self-fulfill-

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ing prophecy. These two assumptions are plausible, but is an appropriate formula to reduce duration estimates pro-
CCPM theorists fail to provide any supporting scientific evi- vided by task owners, the second issue still remains: Will
dence. In fact, a recent study of task duration estimation in they agree to shorten their duration estimates and merge
software development by Hill, Thomas, and Allen (2000) their individual safety factors into the project and feeding
provides some contradictory results. The study analyzed buffers? Imposing shortened duration estimates on task
estimated and actual durations of more than 500 tasks car- owners will reduce their commitment to the estimates. In
ried out by the information systems development depart- addition, the knowledge that their estimates will be reduced
ment of a major international financial organization. Only is likely to encourage task owners to add larger margins so
in 8% of the tasks was the actual duration equal to the esti- they still have the safety margin they prefer after the correc-
mated duration, while in about 60% of the tasks the actual tion,. At any rate, the behavioral aspects of identifying the
duration was less than the estimated duration. These find- precise amount of safety margin and taking it away from the
ings, in effect, contradict the assumption that task owners task owner are dealt with only superficially by CCPM litera-
use up all allocated time. Further, in 32% of the tasks, the ture and still require empirical support.
actual duration exceeded the estimate, indicating that the
safety factor, if it existed at all, was certainly not sufficient for Use of Buffers in Planning and Control
the 95% confidence level. The various types of buffers play a key role in CCPM theory.
However, let us leave aside the contradictory evidence In principle, the size of the project buffer should reflect the
and proceed under CCPM assumptions. There are still two amount of protection required against the uncertainty of the
important issues that CCPM does not address satisfactorily. sum of the durations of the tasks on the critical chain, while
The first issue is how does the project manager determine the sizes of the feeding buffers should reflect the amount of
the safety factor that the task owner presumably built into protection appropriate for the feeding chains. In order to
the duration estimate. The only way for obtaining the cor- contribute to the reduction in the overall project duration,
rect answer is to have another method for estimating task the size of the buffer has to be less than the sum of the safe-
durations that provides an accurate estimate and to subtract ty margins extracted from the tasks on the corresponding
that estimate from the one provided by the task owner. Of chain. However, CCPM does not provide any scientific or
course, if such a method is available, it should have been objective basis for determining the buffer size. This raises
used in the first place, and the issue remains. CCPM sug- several problems.
gests reducing the estimates by a certain percentage, typi- First, the feeding chain concept is based on the assump-
cally 33%. Such an approach is problematic, not only due tion that the project network consists of several paths that
to the need to justify the percentage reduction chosen, but start in parallel and proceed to merge into each other, even-
also due to the fact that not all people overestimate by the tually leading to the final product of the project, as shown
same amount. There are bound to be variations based on in Figure 3.
personality, job experience, nature of the task, workload, or This network structure is applicable to projects that con-
other reasons. sist of construction, assembly, and integration tasks, which
Even if project managers are willing to accept that there are common in manufacturing environments. But many

Figure 3. Typical Project Network According to CCPM

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 27

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 28

Figure 4. General Case of a Project Network

projects begin with a small core of central activities, i.e., Figure 5 provides an example of such a network. In
design and analysis, which split into parallel tracks that addition to the critical chain that consists of activities 1
merge at various intermediate review points before produc- through 4, there are three more activities: Job 5 and job 6
ing the various project deliverables. This leads to more com- run parallel to each other and feed into job 7, which in turn
plex network flows where a given task may have both feeds into the critical chain at the beginning of job 4. For the
predecessors and successors from several chains (Figure 4). sake of the example, let us assume that the durations (after
In such cases, it is not clear how much of a feeding buffer reductions of up to 33% as recommended by CCPM) are 12,
should be allotted to each merging task. 12, and 1 time unit for jobs 5, 6, and 7, respectively.
Schonberger (1981) has shown that projects will always Thus, the feeding buffer has a length of 1 time unit, as
be late—relative to the deterministic critical path. The shown in Figure 5. In order to examine whether the feeding
amount of delay is contingent on the time variability of buffer is adequate and effective, the authors follow the same
activities and the amount of parallel paths in the network. method used by Schonberger (1981). Assuming a variability
In that respect, the critical chain is no different from the crit- of +/- 3 units for each of the two longer activities, job 5 and
ical path, especially in nonarborescent networks. job 6, calculate the expected length of time required for the
two to complete. Because the two run parallel, the amount
of time required for both to complete is the maximum of
Job 1 (4) Critical Chain the actual durations of each of the two. There are seven pos-
Job 2 (6) sible duration values for each activity—a total of 49 combi-
Project nations. Table 1 shows the combinations in a matrix, with
Job 3 (4) Buffer the cells containing the maximum value. The average across
Job 4 (4) the entire matrix is 13.14. Adding to this the duration of job
NC 1 Job 5 (12)
7, which is 1 time unit (and ignoring its own variability),
(6) the authors come up with the result that the variability of
(1) (1)

the noncritical chain exceeds its feeding buffer. In effect, this

NC 2 Job 6 (12)
causes the noncritical chain to become critical. More paral-
Feeding lel chains will increase the estimated duration even further.
Buffer A second issue pertains to the validity and stability of
Non Critical Chain the schedule that serves as the basis for determining the
buffers. According to CCPM, the critical chain and associat-
ed buffers are identified from a schedule obtained with a
Figure 5. The Effect of the Time Variability on Project Duration resource-leveling algorithm. The mathematical problem of

28 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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scheduling the project tasks under resource constraints is the corresponding chain. The projected dates are based on
known to be very difficult to solve optimally. In fact, this estimates of the “duration left” for the tasks. The estimation
problem belongs to the class of problems for which it has of how much work remains to be done is also subjected to
been shown that there are no efficient algorithms for find- inflation by safety margins—the very same problem CCPM
ing the optimal solution for large projects. A comparison of attempted to solve by using buffers. However, let us assume
three exact approaches for solving the constrained resource that buffer penetration data is indeed valid and accurate
and can be trusted to serve as an indication of the likeli-
hood that the task chain will be completed by the end date
Duration of Job 5 of the buffer. CCPM prescribes that, in case of contention
for limited resources, priority should be given to the task
99 110 111 112 113 114 115 belonging to the chain with the highest buffer penetration
99 99 110 111 112 113 114 115 rate. The rationale for this rule is clear: Chains of tasks
where a higher percentage of their buffers have been used
110 110 110 111 112 113 114 115 are at a higher risk of missing their committed dates and,
Duration of Job 6

consequently, ought to be given higher priority in resource

111 111 111 111 112 113 114 115 allocation decisions. However, this consideration is not the
112 112 112 112 112 113 114 115 only one and may not be the most relevant one. For exam-
ple, we may prefer to give priority to tasks that belong to a
113 113 113 113 113 113 114 115 project with very high penalties for missing deadlines, or to
those that have a key strategic impact, regardless of the
114 114 114 114 114 114 114 115 amount of remaining buffer.
115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 A final point regarding time buffers deserves attention.
Buffers of various types are shown on the project schedule
Table 1. Joint Duration of Parallel Activities Job 5 and Job 6 and Gantt chart as special types of activities. Because there is
one feeding buffer at the end of each chain of tasks in the
project scheduling problem and their limitations can be project network (if we assume that typically a chain consists
found in Patterson (1984). Consequently, resource-leveling of eight to ten tasks in series before each merging point and
algorithms use heuristic rules to generate solutions that are take into account resource buffers as well), buffers add at
hoped to be close to the optimum (Wiest, 1967). least 10% to 15% to the number of items on the Gantt chart.
CCPM theory does not prescribe a specific resource- These additional items, which have to be interpreted differ-
leveling algorithm out of the numerous algorithms that ently from the others, add clutter to the schedule and
have been published in the operations research literature increase the potential for confusion.
and vary in terms of average distance from the optimum. Overall, although feeding and project buffers have
Thus, it is hard to assess how good is the schedule upon some intuitive appeal, one ought to be aware of the limita-
which the buffers are based. Project networks are not tions in their validity and usefulness as the main decision-
arborescent, and because determination of the appropriate making criterion in project control.
buffer size has to take into account the variability of activ-
ity durations and the number of parallel paths in the net- Resource Utilization
work of the network, simulation studies are required, as CCPM is against assigning more than one task to be carried
Schonberger (1981) suggests. out concurrently by a given resource. The organization could
In addition, the critical chain itself may change for reduce the extent of multitasking without switching to
several reasons. Hoel and Taylor (1999) show that if the CCPM, but it is not clear at all that eliminating multitasking
overall uncertainty on a given feeding chain is such that is actually a good idea. In fact, a study of 64 high technol-
the project planner defines a feeding buffer greater than ogy firms carried out by McCollum and Sherman (1991)
the free slack of the feeding chain, that chain becomes presents some evidence to the contrary. The researchers
part of the critical chain. Further, during project execu- examined the effectiveness of matrix organizations and
tion, the critical chain may change as a result of changes found that there was a relationship between the number of
in resource availability or in buffer utilization. Changes in projects to which research and development personnel were
the set of tasks that constitute the critical chain are likely assigned and key performance indicators of the firm.
to affect the meaning of the buffers of various types, Specifically, they found that for two of the most important
bringing us to the third issue, which is related to the use measures of performance—return on investment (ROI) and
of buffers for project control. rate of sales growth—assignment to two projects seems to be
According to CCPM, schedule control is based on mon- optimal, while up to three may not be problematic.
itoring the extent of buffer penetration, which is defined as Resource buffers are a unique feature of CCPM. They are
the amount of time running from the original start date of fictitious tasks that provide advance notice to the critical
the buffer on the critical chain or one of the feeding chains, resources that the prerequisites for assigned tasks are about
as appropriate, to the projected end date of the last task on to be completed and that they should complete whatever

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 29

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they are doing and become ready to start working on their cess. Furthermore, CCPM focuses on a single aspect of proj-
tasks shortly. Further, they are asked to complete assigned ect management—meeting the schedule goals. The relative
tasks as soon as possible in order to allow successor tasks to importance of this aspect is not universal: A project that
start as soon as possible. This method of coordination exceeded its original schedule by 10%, but still earned ten
among project team members seems to us rather chaotic times its cost in increased profits, would be considered
and requires a great deal of unscheduled communication. It more successful that a project that was completed on time
may not be feasible at all if some of the resources are out- and budget but added little to the customer’s business
side contractors who may not have the flexibility to drop effectiveness.
their ongoing jobs and invest their full attention on their Within the narrow scope of meeting project schedule
assigned project task. There is value in alerting resources to objectives, CCPM focuses mainly on the uncertainty inher-
important (critical chain activities) early-start opportuni- ent in the schedule. Rather than addressing the root cause of
ties, and CCPM is correct to point out that managing to duration uncertainty, CCPM accepts it as a given and
complete tasks on time is not the same as managing to attempts to overcome it by means of buffer management. In
complete the project on time. However, it is the authors’ contrast, most project risk management methodologies
opinion that this is a supplement, rather than a substitute, work at identifying and reducing the sources of uncertainty
for the traditional way of publicizing a schedule to which or by estimation methodologies that work to improve the
all task owners have committed. The schedule’s integrity quality of the duration estimates. Although CCPM does not
still needs to be maintained through an effective change preclude the application of other, more comprehensive risk
management process. management approaches, its limited focus makes it ill suit-
Overall, the authors fail to see any advantage that this ed to serve as the single tool for dealing with project uncer-
approach gives to the traditional way of publicizing a sched- tainty. At best, it can help manage the schedule uncertainty
ule to which all task owners have committed, and to main- that remains after the application of risk analysis and risk
taining its integrity through an effective change mitigation tools.
management process. Further, because CCPM is presented as a revolutionary
concept that replaces, rather than complements, current
Multi-Project Management project management knowledge and practices, it is not
CCPM deals with a multi-project environment by stagger- properly integrated with the accepted body of knowledge
ing the projects around the constraining resource (the and state of the practice. This situation poses a certain
“drum” in TOC terminology). In principle, at any given dilemma to organizations that are new to project manage-
point in time there could be several constraining resources, ment methodologies and are asked to choose between
each leading to a different schedule. Further, at different CCPM and mainstream methodologies, such as those con-
points in time we could have different constraining tained in the PMBOK® Guide.
resources, so that there could be conflicting schedules. The
premise that there is a single drum is based on a steady CCPM Adoption
state view of the work mix in the organization and is appli- An organization that considers the adoption of CCPM as its
cable to manufacturing and operations environments. In main project management methodology has to take into
most project environments there is no steady state and, account two major sources of cost: software tools and cul-
consequently, the authors doubt the applicability of the ture change. CCPM implementation requires project per-
solution obtained with CCPM. sonnel to use a software tool that supports the concept of
buffer creation and management. Currently, only one of the
CCPM Scope mainstream mid-size project management software tools is
Project success and project management success are not nec- compatible with CCPM and two add-in products are avail-
essarily equivalent. For many project managers, success able for the leading tool in the market—one of which
means meeting predefined planning goals stated in terms of requires a specific database server. Thus, the range of soft-
schedule, budget and scope commitments. To customers, ware tool options is limited and bound to be relatively
however, success relates primarily to whether the project expensive.
contributes to the goals of the organization. The relative However, the costs of acquiring, deploying and apply-
importance of the various dimensions of project success was ing software that supports CCPM are likely to be secondary
documented by Lipovetzky, Dvir, and Shenhar (1997) in a relative to the costs resulting from the need to change the
study of 110 projects in Israel. Their analysis revealed that culture of the organization. CCPM is presented as a
benefit to the customer was by far the most important methodology that has to be adopted in its entirety, ranging
dimension, almost twice as important as meeting planning from buffer calculation, personnel assignment, and
goals. Nevertheless, a sound project management process progress reporting, up to the criteria for determining deliv-
well executed by a qualified project manager enhances the ery dates in a multi-project environment. As such, CCPM
likelihood of project success in the eyes of the customer. requires massive education at various levels and functions
Like conventional project management, CCPM deals throughout the organization and may even require experi-
with project management success, rather than project suc- enced project managers to forget some of their convention-

30 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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al knowledge in order to absorb the new methodology. critical analysis of CCPM, it is important to point out its
Some of the key points that involve a change in the organi- positive side. First, CCPM is a methodology, and any
zational culture are: methodology is better than no methodology at all. Even if
• Giving up ownership of the task duration and relying CCPM is simplistic and oversold, it is worth studying for its
on the schedule buffers to absorb deviations in indi- several pieces of good advice. In this respect, CCPM:
vidual task performance; • Accounts for duration uncertainty by making buffers
• Replacing the concept of “due date” with “estimated explicit, sharing the knowledge of buffer sizes and
completion date range,” as represented by the feed- placement with workers, management, and sponsors;
ing and project buffers; • Considers resource availability;
• Avoiding multi-tasking. • Focuses on the key tasks and resources;
Clearly, CCPM is a departure from traditional project • Constantly monitors the amount of buffer in
management and its adoption by any organization will your schedule;
require a concerted effort at all levels. • Provides advance notice of upcoming work to
critical resources;
Concluding Remarks • Does not split your attention among numerous tasks.
Project performance is often less an issue of managing the
constraints on the schedule and more a function of the per- Some CCPM principles do make sense in certain situa-
sonal skills and capabilities of the leaders, such as articulat- tions and their careful application can improve perform-
ing customer requirements, understanding future needs, ance, provided the preconditions and assumptions are fully
enlisting cooperation throughout the organization, etc. understood. However, to the question of whether your
CCPM is based on the premise that uncertainty in activity organization should adopt CCPM as its project manage-
duration is the major factor affecting the ability to complete ment methodology, the authors offer the following quali-
the project on time. But, there are other relevant misman- fied answer. If your organization lacks effective project
agement practices that affect schedule expectations, such as planning and control processes, you run a relatively large
external pressures, internal politics, and distorting estimates number of quite similar projects in a matrix environment,
to win the project, which should also be addressed. and your main concern is meeting deadlines, CCPM could
CCPM leads us to believe that management of projects be beneficial. Otherwise, the authors suggest carefully
can be accomplished through the same rational process that weighing the limitations of CCPM and its costs against the
works for production management. In order to accomplish potential for contributing to the long-term business success
this, CCPM adapted the concepts of bottlenecks and materi- of your organization. Perhaps the optimal solution is to
al buffers that were developed within the framework of incorporate those CCPM principles that are applicable to
Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints, calling them “critical your environment within a broader conventional project
chain” and “time buffers” in the realm of projects. These management methodology.
concepts and other elements of CCPM are not necessarily
new. For instance, the impact of resource availability on crit- References
ical path calculations has been known for quite some time Globerson, S. (2000). PMBOK® and the critical chain.
(Raz, 1996). However, the issue of intellectual innovation is PM Network 14 (5), 63–66.
not the main one, even though it is emphasized in the Goldratt, E.H. (1997). Critical Chain. Great Barrington,
CCPM literature. The authors already presented their con- MA: North River Press.
cerns about the validity of the assumptions and the adequa- Hill, J., Thomas, L.C., & Allen, D.E. (2000). Experts’ esti-
cy of the scope covered. The key question is: Is CCPM mates of task durations in software development projects.
indeed superior to the currently accepted project manage- International Journal of Project Management, 12 (1), 13–24.
ment methodologies? Hoel, K., & Taylor, S.G. (1999). Quantifying buffers for
CCPM seems to hold answers to problems that have project schedules. Production and Inventory Management
challenged project managers for many years, and presenta- Journal, 40 (2), 43–47.
tions on it are enthusiastically received. CCPM proponents Homer, J.L. (1998). Applying the theory of constraints
have claimed some dramatic successes, but from the to projects. Proceedings of the 29th Annual Project Management
authors’ personal experiences, these appear to be mainly in Institute 1998 Seminars & Symposium. CD-ROM, Newtown
organizations that started out with weak or nonexistent Square, PA: Project Management Institute.
project management methodologies. However, the authors Leach, L. (1999). Critical chain project management
are not aware of any comparative studies that provide scien- improves project performance. Project Management Journal,
tific evidence to the effect that organizations that have 30 (2), 39–51.
adopted CCPM perform better than organizations that Lipovetsky, S., Tishler, A., Dvir, D., & Shenhar, A.
apply a conventional project management methodology. In (1997). The relative importance of project success dimen-
addition, CCPM has been out for a short period of time, and sions. R & D Management, 27 (2), 97–106.
it is impossible to assess any sustainable long-term benefits. McCollum, J.K., & Sherman, J.D. (1991). The effects of
Although the bulk of this paper has been devoted to a matrix organization size and number of project assignments

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 31

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 32

on performance. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Symposium. CD-ROM, Newtown Square, PA: Project
Management, 38 (1), 75–78. Management Institute.
Newbold, R.C. (1998). Project Management in the Fast Schonberger, J.R. (1981). Why projects are “always” late:
Lane. Boca Raton, FL: The St. Lucie Press. a rationale based on manual simulation of a PERT/CPM net-
Patterson, J.H. (1984). A comparison of exact approach- work. Interfaces, 11 (5), 66–70.
es for solving the multiple constrained resource, project Wiest, J.D. (1964). Some properties of schedules for
scheduling problem. Management Science, 30 (7), 854–867. large projects with limited resources. Operations Research, 12,
Raz, T., & Marshall, B. (1996). Float calculations in proj- (May–June), 395–418.
ect networks under resource constraints. International Journal Wiest, J.D. (1967). A heuristic model for scheduling
of Project Management, 14 (4), 241–248. large projects with limited resources. Management Science, 13
Simpson, W.P., & Lynch, W. (1999) Critical success fac- (6), B359–B377.
tors in critical chain project management. Proceedings of the Wiest J.D., & Levy F.K. (1977). A management guide to
30th Annual Project Management Institute 1999 Seminars & PERT/CPM. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Tzvi Raz holds [Link], [Link] and Ph.D degrees in Industrial and Management Engineering. He is a
Professor of Technology and Information Systems Management and Assistant Dean at the Leon Recanati
Graduate School of Business Administration at Tel Aviv University. Previously, he managed a technology
insertion program at an IBM software development laboratory, and was on the Industrial Engineering fac-
ulties of the University of Iowa, US and Ben Gurion University, Israel. Dr. Raz has published over 60
research papers in refereed international journals and is on the editorial boards of Computers and
Operations Research and the Project Management Journal. In the last five years he has served as con-
sultant to several technology firms in Israel on project and risk management, and has conducted short
courses and workshops on these topics in Israel, Europe and South America. Dr. Raz has been certified
as a Project Management Professional by the Project Management Institute and was the founding presi-
dent of the Israel Chapter of the Project Management Institute.

Dov Dvir is a senior lecturer at the Ben-Gurion University in Beer Sheba. Previously he was the head of the
Management of Technology (MOT) department at the Holon Center for Technological Education, Israel. He
also lectured at the Faculty of Management, The Leon Recanati Graduate School of Business
Administration at the Tel Aviv University. He holds a [Link]. in electrical engineering from the Technion -
Israel Institute of Technology, [Link]. in operations research and an MBA from Tel Aviv University; and a
Ph.D. in management (specialization in MOT) from Tel Aviv University.
In his military service as a senior officer in the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) he was a commander of a large
Technological Development Center.

Robert Barnes has an MSc and a Diploma of Management from the University of Auckland, and holds PMP
certification. He guest-lectures on Information Technology topics at Auckland University's Business
School, and is the author of an authoritative textbook on PL/I programming. He is a director of the iE3
Group, and a National Councillor of the New Zealand Computer Society, as well as an active consultant.

32 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

Project Management Learning:

What the Literature Has to Say
DEBBIE TESCH, Department of Information Systems, Williams College of Business,
Xavier University, 3800 Victory Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45207-5161 USA

TIMOTHY J. KLOPPENBORG, Department of Management and Entrepreneurship,

Williams College of Business, Xavier University, 3800 Victory Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45207-5161 USA

JOHN K. STEMMER, Xavier University, 3800 Victory Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45207-5161 USA

hat is the current state of project management research? In the past three
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the methodology
and results of research designed to
W years, a significant component of the Project Management Institute
(PMI) research focus has concerned examining existing project manage-
ment research for its contribution to practitioners’ learning. In a previously fund-
extract useful professional project man-
ed PMI initiative, Kloppenborg and Opfer (2002) presented the results of an
agement information from recent research examination of project management research since 1960. Their study explores
literature in the information systems and trends, major issues, and research contributions from each of the nine (PMBOK®)
information technology (IS/IT) fields. The knowledge areas.
resulting database of 784 journal, thesis, Funded by PMI, this current study represents the final deliverable of a series
and conference proceedings abstracts
represents research from 1999 through
of activities designed to extract project management information useful to the
2001 in the IS/IT field related to project practice of the profession from recent research literature in the information sys-
management. A lessons learned executive tems and information technology (IS/IT) fields. The grant investigators developed
seminar was conducted to allow experi- a database of journal, thesis, and conference proceedings abstracts that represent
enced, active project managers to exam- IS/IT project management research from 1999 through 2001. The project provides
ine selected findings for lessons learned
and research opportunities that might
a focused review with the intention of extracting information useful to practice in
benefit project managers. the area of IS/IT project management.
Results reported here represent a review accomplished through a two-part
Keywords: information systems; process: creating an annotated bibliography of research articles on project man-
research; teams; communication; risk agement in the IS/IT field and hosting a special lessons learned executive seminar
that allowed experienced, active project managers to examine selected findings for
©2003 by the Project Management Institute lessons learned and research opportunities that they believe will benefit project
Vol. 34, No. 4, 33-39, ISSN 8756-9728/03 managers.

Methodology
Initial creation of the annotated bibliography began with a review of the efforts
of Kloppenborg and Opfer (2002). This research had been a broad-based review
of project management literature that also relied on an annotated bibliography to
develop trends and recommendations in project management research. The
process was initiated by applying the project management research definition pre-
viously developed in Kloppenborg and Opfer (2002) to identify for IS/IT project
management research.
With a satisfactory research definition guiding the researcher’s efforts, the
next step was to identify appropriate databases for review and appropriate key-
words for finding articles. Eight commercial databases were searched to conduct
a thorough literature review. The four databases used in the earlier project were

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 33

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Based on experience from the

Project management Communication management prior project and a review of titles in
Program$ management Risk management the source index databases, selected
Acquisition management Procurement management publications were deleted for not
Systems management Contract management being research-oriented. Table 2 rep-
Logistics management Schedule management resents an illustrative list of sources
deleted. We quickly deleted abstracts
Performance management Project life cycle
from sources that were not research
Configuration management Project lifecycle
based, such as brief articles, compa-
Program$ control Project manager
ny profiles, columns, financial pro-
Project control Project leader
files, editorials, news briefs, book
Human resource management Project success reviews, software reviews, and
Integration management Project failure authorless articles.
Scope management System$ development From an initial database of 9,332
Cost management SDLC records, preliminary editing results
$ Indicates the use of truncation in the search, e.g., system$ would retrieve system or systems. yielded a database of 4,428 records.
communication management The research definition was applied to
the remaining items through an indi-
vidual review of each abstract. The
Table 1. Database Search Terms
resulting database contains 784
records. The other records were deleted
used again (ABI/Inform, Compendex, ment research definition could be because they violated at least one part
Business & Company ASAP, and applied were selected. of the research definition.
Digital Dissertations, i.e., Dissertation To conduct these database search-
Abstracts. Two additional databases es, the principal investigators recruited Executive Seminar
were added to increase the retrieval of student assistants, primarily selected To parse the database into logical, yet
materials from resources that focused based on previous coursework or expe- manageable groups, a number of
on IS/IT technology (Applied Science rience in project management and queries were conducted. Based on
and Technology Index and INSPEC). information systems aptitude. The stu- analysis of these results, five focus
Two new general business/manage- dents then followed the predetermined groups were established to consider
ment databases also were added plans for searching in the selected findings. Table 3 indicates the groups
(Business & Industry and Business & databases. They extracted relevant arti- and number of abstracts investigated.
Management Practices). Additional cles from the databases, which then Five individuals were selected to
items were selected from PMI confer- were imported into distinct source facilitate the seminars based on their
ences from 1999 through 2001. index databases created in Reference previous experience and genuine inter-
Standardized searches using pre- Manager 9.5. Having created separate est in advancing project management
determined search terms determined source index databases, duplicates in the IS/IT profession. All of the facil-
the selected articles, starting with the were removed, and the materials were itators were either Project Management
list of keywords created from the earli- reviewed for other items that could be Professionals with at least a master’s
er project adjusted to capture IS/IT eliminated quickly. degree or were PhD-qualified. Four
results. See Table 1.
These database terms then were
Advertising Age Financial Times
combined with IS/IT keywords (and
American Medical News InfoWorld
information system$ or information
technology or computer system$, Asia Pulse InterActive Week
where $ indicates the use of truncation Automotive News Marketing News
in the search) to focus the searches on Business Insurance Nation’s Restaurant News
this particular project management Business Marketing New York Times
topic. Date restrictions limited search Communications News PC Week
results to materials published in 1999 Computer Technology Review PC World
or later. These searches provided a Computer World PC Magazine
thorough literature review of English Crain’s Chicago Business Supermarket News
language periodicals and dissertations Eweek Wall Street Journal
and provided some coverage of mas-
Women’s Wear Daily
ter’s theses and conference proceed-
ings. Only materials with pre-existing
abstracts to which the project manage- Table 2. Selected Publication References Removed

34 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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focused forum, in which all aspects of

Cost, Leadership, Quality, Risk, Schedule, project management are discussed.
Information
Procurement, Teamwork, HR, Integration Scope Systems
Life Cycle Communications Success/Failure Findings
Relevant issues, identified as “lessons
130 137 79 170 165
learned” in this investigation, were
identified by examining database
Table 3. Total Abstracts Examined by Focus Group abstracts and collecting practitioner
input in the executive seminar. In real-
have extensive consulting experience, Management (ISM), Journal of ity, these research findings form a con-
while three have college faculty experi- Systems and Software (JS&S), tinuum from very well proven to very
ence. Facilitators were assigned to focus Information Systems Journal, and preliminary. In addition, examined
groups based on experience and interest International Journal of Project contributions were described from
in a given area. Facilitators for each of Management. Table 4 describes the quite innovative to quite mundane.
the focus groups were given a database most frequently cited journals. The top Based on these observations, the
of abstracts that matched the keyword five journals represent top-tier aca- authors grouped the findings into les-
searches for their area. The facilitators demic journals, as academicians seem sons learned and future research sug-
selected a subset of those research doc- to have the most to say about IS/IT gestions. Many of the lessons learned
uments to represent a major contribu- project management research issues. tend to confirm common wisdom.
tion toward advancing the state of The remaining records in the data-
project management in IS/IT. base consist of 253 conference pro- General Comments
Seventy-six documents were ceedings and 33 theses or Many of the practitioners at the execu-
selected for discussion, including 11 dissertations. Table 5 lists conferences tive seminar expressed concern that
duplications. Despite the potential for by count with more than two citations. some of the more advanced research
bias among articles selected for discus- Fourteen different conferences are rep- does not necessarily closely relate to
sion, researchers considered the resented in this list. These citations everyday project issues and demands.
potential contribution of more in- account for 61% of conference pro- Practitioners asked repeatedly how
depth findings to outweigh the associ- ceedings references. Three conferences they could use a particular finding—
ated bias. provided 20 or more abstracts (34%): especially those that were published in
Seminar participants received a the Hawaii International Conference the more highly regarded academic
binder with the citation and abstract on System Sciences (HICSS), the journals. This finding is consistent
for each research document. Given Information Resources Management with research by Benbasat et al. (1999)
time constraints, each group dis- Association International Conference that explains why there is a tendency
cussed four to seven of the selected (IRMA), and the Association for to describe IS research as lacking rele-
documents, for a total of 28 docu- Information Systems Americas vance to practice. Five explanations for
ments. Online scribes for each focus Conference on Information Systems the lack of relevance of current IS liter-
group attempted to capture the most (AIS AMCIS). ature described in Benbasat et al.
significant discussion of each abstract, Since 1968, the Hawaii International (1999) include:
and 35 pages of notes were tran- Conference on System Sciences (HICSS) 1. Emphasis on rigor over practical
scribed. A complete list of abstracts has been a unique forum for the inter- relevance;
selected for consideration may be change of ideas in all areas of informa- 2. Lack of a cumulative research tradition;
obtained from the authors, who sum- tion systems and technology. The 3. Rapid/continuous change associat-
marize and interpret the more useful Information Resources Management ed with information technologies;
comments from that transcription in Association (IRMA) is an international 4. Degree to which IS academicians
the Findings section. professional organization dedicated to are exposed to current business and
advancing the concepts and practices of technological contexts;
Database Analysis information resources management in 5. Failure of the institutional envi-
Of the 784 records in the database, modern organizations. The Association ronment to encourage the pursuit
499 records (64%) represent abstracts for Information Systems (AIS) is a new of relevance. Benbasat et al.
from journals. A total of 223 different professional organization whose mis- (1999) suggest procedures that IS
journals are represented. Eighty-one sion is to advance knowledge of how researchers might employ to
journals (36%) contain more than one information technology can improve introduce relevance into their
citation. Journals referenced 10 or organizational performance and indi- research efforts.
more times include: European Journal vidual quality of life. The Project A second general observation is
of Information Systems (EJIS), Journal Management Institute’s Global that much of what is published in con-
of Management Information Systems Congress (formerly Annual Seminars & ference proceedings is, by its nature,
(JMIS), Information Systems Symposium) is a largely practitioner- preliminary, exploratory research.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 35

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Journal Description
European Journal of Information Systems (EJIS) The official journal of the Operational Research Society.
The EJIS audience represents information systems
professionals in industry, commerce, government and
academic departments of management, business, and
computing.

Journal of Management Information Systems JMIS is a widely recognized forum for presenting
(JMIS) research that advances the practice and understanding
of organizational information systems. Attempts to
bridge the gap between theory and the practice of
management information systems.

Information Systems Management (ISM) ISM views its audience as both practitioners and
academicians and aims to bridge the gap between trade
and academic research publications, providing guidance
in innovative management of information technology
and related resources. The journal's articles, written by
IT professionals and academicians, appear as case
studies, research papers, surveys and white papers.

Journal of Systems and Software The Journal of Systems and Software publishes papers
covering all aspects of programming methodology,
software engineering and related hardware/software
systems issues to an audience of researchers, scholars,
and managers in software engineering, computer
science, information systems, computer programming,
computer hardware, and MIS.

Information Systems Journal (ISJ) ISJ publishes papers on any aspect of information
systems with a particular emphasis on the relationship
between information systems and people, business and
organizations. Articles published cover research,
practice and experience. Its audience includes
academicians in computer science, business studies,
and management departments as well as computer
users in business and industry.

International Journal of Project Management IJPM offers comprehensive coverage of all facets of
(IJPM) project management from systems to human aspects.
IJPM provides a focus for worldwide expertise in the
required techniques, practices and areas of research.
It provides a forum for its readers to share common
experiences across the full range of industries and
technologies in which project management is used.

Table 4. Most Frequently Referenced Journals

36 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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Future examination should reveal, in er scale, the project manager considers tors. This data collection method is
many cases, that previously explorato- all nine project management knowl- designed to elicit and organize opin-
ry studies have been confirmed and edge areas within the scope of the cur- ions of a panel of experts through iter-
results published in academic journals. rent project. ative, controlled feedback. Using
• Lesson 4. Different perceptions surveys in Hong Kong, Finland, and
Lessons Learned of the importance of written and oral the United States with experienced
Based on database abstracts examined communications skills by IS staff and project managers from each country,
in the executive seminar, this paper end users have an effect on end user 53 IS project risk factors are identified.
presents the findings as lessons satisfaction. • Lesson 8. IS/IT academic research
learned. • Lesson 5. Different perceptions should be examined frequently for the
• Lesson 1. The deployment of of the importance of interpersonal possibility of existing successful models
virtual teams does not replace the skills by IS managers and IS staff affect that may offer relevance for IS project
occasional necessity of face-to-face job performance evaluations. management issues and ranked.
meetings. Miller (2000) considered percep- Chatzoglou (1999) introduces a
• Lesson 2. Requirements negotia- tions of written and oral communica- theoretical framework to assess the
tion may be significantly facilitated by tions and interpersonal skills from the efficiency of the requirements capture
virtual team configurations. perspective of managers, IS staff, and and analysis (RCA) process in software
In an exploratory study of the end users. Using matched observations development. Results from an
effects of multimedia communication from survey participants working on exploratory field study using a tech-
systems on group negotiation perform- the same project, results indicate that nique called data envelopment analy-
ance and behavior, Damian et al. differences in perceptions of IS staff sis (DEA) show that the framework
(2000) suggest that groups in face-to- and users, with respect to the impor- and methodology employed allow
face meetings perform no better than tance of written and oral communica- users to assess RCA process inefficien-
videoconference groups. Their findings tions, lead to lower user satisfaction cies and offer useful direction for
examine the collaborative work of vir- levels. Similarly, differences in percep- improvement of the RCA process and
tual teams as they negotiate system tion of the importance of interperson- overall software development.
requirements. However, in executive al skills by IS staff and managers lead
sessions with practitioners, discussion to lower job performance evaluations. Future Research Suggestions
confirmed that virtual teams must con- • Lesson 6. An empirically tested Many suggestions were made for
tinue to plan meetings with agendas software risk assessment model, SRAM important future IS/IT project man-
and minutes and stressed the necessity allows the prediction of outcomes of agement research. Discussion centered
of face-to-face meetings when projects software projects. largely on describing factors related to
are troubled. In addition, Damian et Foo and Murugananthan (2000) the success of project management
al. (2000) identify a distributed virtual introduce a model for assessing soft- efforts. These discussions considered:
team configuration that is qualitatively ware project risk. The Software Risk the roles of trust and effective commu-
more conducive to requirements nego- Assessment Model (SRAM) makes use nication (Damian et al., 2000); pat-
tiation than face-to-face meetings. of a comprehensive questionnaire. Test terns of leadership behavior in IS
• Lesson 3. IS projects require results indicate that using the risk indi- organizations (Stewart & Gable,
both business and technically cator in SRAM, it is possible to accu- 2001); the effect of IS project manager
trained project leaders as well as gen- rately predict outcomes of software business competencies on project suc-
erally qualified project management projects. Use of a tested model such as cess (Gottschalk, 2000, Gottschalk,
professionals. SRAM allows for project managers to 2000; Haggerty & Nance, 2000); and
Thite (2000), in acknowledging avoid late occurring risk events that the nature of specific project manage-
that no one style is appropriate for all have higher costs associated costs. ment knowledge, skills, and behaviors
project environments, suggests that • Lesson 7. The top three IS proj- that represent success factors (Kempis
successful IS organizations require ect risk factors are lack of top manage- and Ringbeck, 1999). Alternately, dis-
both project leaders and project man- ment commitment, failure to obtain cussion considered an examination of
agers. The project leader is a member user commitment, and misunder- factors contributing to project failure
of the project team who understands standing of commitment (Schmidt, (Oz & Sosik, 2000): methods for res-
both business and technical issues Lyytinen, Keil, and Cule, 2001). cuing troubled projects (Montealegre
associated with a specific project and is Advocates of software risk man- & Keil, 2000); and risk reduction
concerned primarily with immediate agement claim that by identifying and strategies for IS/IT projects (Hackbarth
project task accomplishment. The proj- analyzing threats to success, i.e., risks, & Kettinger, 2000).
ect manager employs a variety of lead- the chance of project failure can be
ership skills that consider personal reduced. Schmidt et al. (2001) deploy Summary and Recommendations
growth and development of the indi- a rigorous data collection method to There has been tremendous growth in
viduals and organizations. On a broad- produce a rank-order list of risk fac- IS/IT project management in recent

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 37

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Number
Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (1999, 2000, 2001) 33
Information Resources Management Association International Conference (1999, 2000, 2001) 32
Americas Conference on Information Systems (1999) 20
Project Management Institute Annual Seminars and Symposium 14
Computer Personnel Research Conference (2000) 12
European Conference in Information Systems (1999, 2000) 10
IEEE Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology (2000) 7
ACM SIGUCCS (2000) 6
Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (1999) 4
International Conference on Information Systems Methodologies (1998) 3
Conference on the Social and Organizational Perspective on Research and Practice in 3
Information Technology (2000)
IEEE International Conference on Engineering of Complex Computer Systems (1999, 2000, 2001) 3
International Conference on Software Engineering and Applications (1999, 2000) 3
Medical Imaging (2000) 3
Proceedings of Gita Conference (1999) 3
Project Management Institute Research Conference (2000) 3
Advanced Information Systems Engineering Conference (2001) 2
Computers in Cardiology (2000) 2
IEEE Conference on Software Engineering Education and Training (2001) 2
IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (1999, 2000) 2
International Computer Software and Applications Conference (1999) 2
International Conference on Electricity Distribution (2001) 2
International Conference on Product Focused Software Process Improvement (1999) 2
Medical Infobahn for Europe Proceedings (2000) 2
UK Academy for Information Systems Annual Conference (1999) 2
Western Power Delivery Automation Conference (2001) 2

Table 5. Conference Proceedings by Count 3 or More Abstracts

years, as more organizations realize • Practitioners need to deploy virtu- Benbasat et al. (1999) suggest select-
project management can greatly al teams on IS/IT projects while con- ing topics based on future interest of
improve the success of IS/IT ventures. tinuing to consider how to use them stakeholders, looking to IS/IT practi-
A research effort designed to extract most effectively and under what tioners to identify research topics,
project management information use- constraints. and choosing research with potential
ful to the practice of the profession • IS/IT projects require project lead- to influence practice.
resulted in identification of 784 ers who are business-oriented and Many of the most useful pieces
records directly related to IS/IT project technically trained, as well as gener- of research appealed to both groups.
management research. Approximately ally qualified project management This research identified many
10% of the resulting records were professionals. proven findings, some contradictory
examined and one-third of those were • Different perceptions of written findings, and many suggestions for
discussed in detail for their contribu- and oral communication and other further research. The authors
tion to project management in the interpersonal skills have an effect encourage academics and practition-
IS/IT field. Active practitioner partici- on project performance. Project ers to improve the collective knowl-
pants offered their experience in con- leaders must control for effects of edge of IS/IT project management.
sidering the contribution of research perception differences.
discussed. • Significant project risk factors References
Some of the identified IS/IT include lack of top management Benbasat, I., Zmud, R. W.,
research reflects the considerable aca- commitment, failure to obtain user Applegate, L. M., King, J. L., Davenport,
demic rigor required to ensure that commitment, and misunderstanding T. H., & Markus, M. L. (1999).
the quality of this research matches of commitment. Empirical research in information sys-
that of other business school disci- • IS/IT practitioners and academics tems: The practice of relevance. MIS
plines. As such, the practical rele- need to frequently examine IS/IT aca- Quarterly, 23(1), 3-23, 25-7, 29-33.
vance of this research was demic research for the introduction Chatzoglou, P. D., & Soteriou, A.
questioned. Much research lacks evi- of success models relevant to IS proj- C. (1999). A DEA framework to assess
dence that it has been exposed to the ect management issues. the efficiency of the software require-
“real world.” Alternately, many of the Both the practitioners and ments capture and analysis process.
“nuggets” or “lessons learned” often researchers on this project have Decision Sciences, 30(2), 503-31.
confirmed common wisdom. expressed that they should collabo- Damian, D. E. H., Shaw, M. L. G.,
Significant findings were extract- rate to ensure future research is theo- Gaines, B. R., Hansen, H. R., Bichler,
ed from this body of literature and retically sound and relevant. M., & Mahrer, H. (2000). A study of
further considered by project man- Offering recommendations to pro- requirements negotiations in virtual
agement practitioners. duce more relevant IS research, project teams. Proceedings of the

38 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:36 AM Page 39

European Conference on Information between IT project manager skills and Quarterly, 24(3), 417-20, 439-47.
Systems, 2, 937-44. project success. Research in progress. Oz, E., & Sosik, J. J. (2000).
Foo, S. & Muruganantham, A. In Proceedings of Computer Personnel Why information systems projects
(2000). Software risk assessment Research 2000 Conference, (pp. 192- are abandoned: a leadership and
model. Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE 195). New York: ACM. communication theory and
International Conference on Kempis, R., & Ringbeck, J. exploratory study. Journal of
Management of Innovation and (1999). Information Technology Best Computer Information Systems, 41(1),
Technology, 2, 536-544. Practices. Industry Week Growing 66-78.
Gottschalk, P. (2000). Information Companies Edition, 2(9), 16-17. Schmidt, R., Lyytinen, K., Keil,
systems executives: the changing role of Kloppenborg, T. J., & Opfer, W. A. M., & Cule, P. (2001). Identifying
new IS/IT leaders. Informing Science, (2002). The current state of project software project risks: an interna-
3(2), 31-9. management research: trends, inter- tional Delphi study. Journal of
Gottschalk, P. (2000). Information pretations, and predictions. Project Management Information Systems,
systems leadership roles: an empirical Management Journal, 33(2), 5-18. 17(4), 5-36.
study of information technology man- Miller, R. A. S. (2000). The impor- Stewart, G., & Gable, G. (2001).
agers in Norway. Journal of Global tance of communication skills: Emancipating IT leadership: an
Information Management, 8(4), 43-52. Perceptions of IS professionals, IS man- action research program. Journal of
Hackbarth, G., & Kettinger, W. J. agers, and users. Doctoral dissertation, Information Technology Cases and
(2000). Building an e-business strate- Louisiana Tech University. Applications (JITCA), 3(2), 7-20.
gy. Information Systems Management, Montealegre, R., & Keil, M. Thite, M. (2000). Leadership
17(3), 78-93. (2000). De-escalating information styles in information technology
Haggerty, N., & Nance, W. technology projects: lessons from the projects. International Journal of
(2000). Understanding the link Denver International Airport. MIS Project Management, 18(4), 235-41.

JOHN STEMMER is the Assistant Director for Collections and Systems Services at Xavier University. He
participated in the original project management research investigation that developed the Project
Management Research: An Annotated Bibliography 1960-1999 database. As the project’s Research
Librarian, he assisted in the selection and location of sources, as well as the design and creation of
the database. He has ten years experience in academic and research libraries; he is knowledgeable
on the types, availability, and use of electronic resources and has conducted research on electronic
journal availability.

DEBBIE TESCH is an Assistant Professor of Information Systems at Xavier University. She obtained her
DBA in Quantitative Analysis and Management Information Systems at Louisiana Tech University
awarded in 1992. Her current research interests include project management, system development,
and curriculum outcomes assessment. She has recent publications in Decision Science and
Communications of the ACM as well as numerous conference proceedings and a Visual Basic projects
text. She is a member of AITP.

TIMOTHY J. KLOPPENBORG is a Professor of Management at the Williams College of Business at Xavier

University in Cincinnati, OH. Dr. Kloppenborg has been on the faculties of University of North Carolina at
Charlotte and Air Force Institute of Technology. Tim earned his Ph.D. in operations management at University of
Cincinnati. He is a PMP. Tim has published in both Project Management Journal and PM Network as well as pre-
sented papers at numerous PMI Seminar/Symposiums and the Project Management Research Conferences.
Dr. Kloppenborg recently published two books, Managing Project Quality and Project Leadership. Tim has
hands-on and consulting experience in construction, information systems, and R&D project management.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 39

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This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

JWARS: A CASE STUDY

JIM METZGER, Northrop Grumman Information Technology
c/o Missile Defense National Team – C2BMC 261,1 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 700
Arlington, VA 22202

Introduction
his paper is a management-oriented review of a large-scale government soft-

T
ABSTRACT
ware development project. The Joint Warfare System (JWARS) is a theater-
This paper is a management-oriented
level warfare simulation that was developed as a tool to support U.S.
review of a large-scale government soft-
ware development project. The product is Department of Defense decision-making. This paper covers the period when the
the Joint Warfare System (JWARS), a the- author directed the project—fall 1995 through summer 2002. It discusses all
ater-level warfare simulation intended to aspects of the project, including history, management oversight, requirements,
support U.S. Department of Defense deci- infrastructure, technical approach, development team, data, user participation,
sion-making. This paper discusses all
evolution of processes, and insights. Unique features of the project included:
aspects of the JWARS development proj-
ect from 1995 until 2002. Unique features
included object-oriented development, an • Object-oriented (OO) development, employing an OO language for imple-
integrated government-contractor envi- mentation and a case tool that adheres to the Unified Modeling Language
ronment, and involvement of users and for design;
subject matter experts in development
• An integrated government-contractor environment;
and testing.
• Involvement of users and subject matter experts in development and testing.
Keywords: organizational planning; scope
definition; simulation History
In May 1995, the Deputy Secretary of Defense established the Joint Analytic
©2003 by the Project Management Institute Model Improvement Program (JAMIP) to improve the modeling and simulation
Vol. 34, No. 4, 40-46, ISSN 8756-9728/03 tools available to support U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) decision-making,
and directed the development of JWARS as the centerpiece of JAMIP. The Director,
Program Analysis and Evaluation (DPA&E), who serves in the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD), was assigned to lead JAMIP in general and to devel-
op JWARS in particular.
In November 1995, the JWARS office was created to develop JWARS. In June
1996, Joint Data Support (JDS) was established as the primary data support
organization for JAMIP and JWARS. Both the JWARS office and JDS are within the
Office of the DPA&E (ODPA&E).
During 1995–1997, the JWARS office constructed a prototype. Since 1997, it
has constructed the first production version, Release 1, and its subsequent itera-
tions. (Beta testing of Release 1.4 began in July 2002.)
Because JWARS will be used to support important decisions, the project
enjoyed the interest of three diverse groups, all of which made significant contri-

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butions in time and intellectual effort ly six times per year; later, it met two to from the JWARS office. To permit spec-
to development and testing: three times per year. ification and prioritization of those
Requirements requirements, the JWARS office
• Senior DoD officials; From 1995 to 1998, JWARS require- grouped them into “software develop-
• User organizations; ments were defined and refined by sev- ment threads,” each a unit of work in a
• Proponents for capabilities to be eral groups led by the Joint Staff / J-8. particular functional area with a meas-
represented in the simulation. In late 1996, the Joint Requirements urable level of effort for JWARS devel-
Oversight Council directed that the opment personnel. Figure 2 displays
Management Oversight requirements be recast as an the 55 software development threads
Project success depended on DoD Operational Requirements Document that were incorporated in Release 1
officials maintaining awareness of (ORD). That ORD was approved in and, at the same time, illustrates the
JWARS and on obtaining their guid- August 1998. scope of JWARS. (The “Iteration” col-
ance. As shown in Figure 1, two com- Per the ORD, JWARS will be an umn will be explained under Technical
mittees oversaw JWARS and other analysis tool to support decision-mak- Approach.)
JAMIP activities: ing in four major areas:
• Force assessment (and, hence, Infrastructure
• JAMIP Executive Committee. force structure); Funding, billets, contractors, facilities,
This Lieutenant General and General- • Planning and execution; and computer hardware, software, and
level group acted as the senior adviso- • System effectiveness and trade- support are essential to a successful
ry group. The DPA&E chaired the off analysis (and, hence, system project.
committee, at which the OSD, Joint acquisition); From 1995 to 1996, funding for
Staff, services, and Defense Agencies • Concept and doctrine develop- JAMIP and JWARS was obtained from
were represented. The committee met ment and assessment. the Office of the Undersecretary of
several times during early stages of the Defense (Comptroller). Thereafter,
project. User organizations will include funding was incorporated into the
the OSD, Joint Staff, combatant com- Defense Planning, Programming, and
• JAMIP Steering Committee. manders, services, and defense agen- Budgeting System, and is maintained
This Brigadier General and Major cies. Warfare functionality and administered by the Joint Staff.
General-level group provided regular requirements are central to the ORD. The JWARS office was established
guidance. The Deputy Director, Theater At a macro level, the warfare represen- as a government organization led by a
Assessments and Planning, ODPA&E, tations must be joint; must be based team of two civilians and four military
chaired the committee. Organizations on the representation of command, officers. The civilian positions,
on the Executive Committee, plus sev- control, communications, computers, Director and Assistant Director, and
eral others organizations, such as U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and recon- the individuals to fill them, were
Special Operations Command and naissance (C4ISR); and must account obtained from the ODPA&E. The mili-
U.S. Joint Forces Command, were rep- for the contributions of the services in tary positions were obtained from the
resented on the Steering Committee. a balanced manner. The statements of services (one per service) through the
In the early stages of the project, the warfare functionality requirements in intercession of the Director,
Steering Committee met approximate- the ORD were obtained with assistance Washington Headquarters Services.
These positions were filled through
standard procedures. Additionally, a
Deputy Director position was filled on
Overall Executive a rotational basis by one of the mili-
guidance Committee tary officers.
The JWARS office utilized a firm
JWARS Working IPT already under contract with the
PA&E lead
Routine Steering ODPA&E to develop the prototype.
guidance Committee Full and open competition yielded two
JWARS Study Team
PA&E lead prime contractors for development of
the production version—the two con-
tracts were cost-plus-fixed-fee. That ver-
Near Term sion was developed by the two firms
Enhancements JWARS Field Support
Development Joint Data Support Joint Staff / J-8 working as one team. Each year, paral-
Joint Staff / J-8 PA&E lead
lead PA&E lead lead lel delivery orders were written for the
two firms, wherein each task was
assigned to both firms and one firm or
Figure 1. Management Oversight the other was assigned the lead for the

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 41

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task. This lead role carried with it

Module Title of Software Development Thread Iteration
responsibility for associated deliver-
Strategic Schedule Strategic Transportation Resources(Planning) 1 ables. Conceivably, this approach
Logistic Schedule Strategic Transportation Resources (Replanning) 2 could have led to shirking of responsi-
Move Forces from Port of Embarkation to Port of Debarkation (Air) 2 bilities and finger pointing. In practice,
Move Forces from Port of Embarkation to Port of Debarkation (Sea) 2
however, it worked well—the two firms
Conduct Theater Aerial Port and Seaport Operations (Initial) 5
coordinated effectively and supported
Establish Strategic Transportation Network 4
each other in accomplishing the tasks.
Theater Determine Intratheater Movement Requirements 4 JWARS was developed in govern-
Logistic Schedule Intratheater Transportation 3 ment-leased commercial office space
Distribute Support to Land-Based Forces 5 with government-furnished computer
Distribute Support to Sea-Based Forces 5 hardware, software, and support. This
Conduct Integration of Units 3 approach permitted compensation of
Posture/Concentrate Forces (In-Place Forces) 1
development contractors at govern-
Posture/Concentrate Forces (Deploying Forces) 2
ment site rates. The facility was located
Establish Intratheater Multi-Modal Network 3
in Arlington, VA, USA. ODPA&E pro-
Control Intratheater Multi-Modal Network 4
cured the necessary computer hard-
Perception Collect Information and Determine Enemy Course of Action 1 ware and software. Contractors
Assess Operational Level Situation (Initial) 1 separate from the developers provided
Assess Operational Level Situation (Additional) 3 computer support, again through the
Prepare a Collection Plan 2 ODPA&E.
Publish Air Tasking Order (for Collection Operations) 2 A JWARS user site utilizes a
Conduct Sensor Operations (Initial) 3
client-server environment with the
Conduct Sensor Operations (Additional) 4
simulation executing on a UNIX server,
Produce and Provide Intelligence Products 1
and the user accessing the simulation
Communicate Information 1
on a Windows NT workstation through
Maintain and Enhance Communications 1
a local area network (LAN). Because
Operations Provide Target Intelligence 2 JWARS input data generally are classi-
Develop Operational Targets 3 fied up to the “secret” level, the servers,
Exercise Theater Level Command and Control 1 workstations, and LAN must be certi-
Exercise Land Command and Control 5
fied for processing to the ”secret” level.
Exercise Maritime Command and Control 2
The JWARS office facility where the
Exercise Air Command and Control 5
simulation was developed is a large-
Publish Air Tasking Order (for Defensive Operations) 4
scale version of a user site. It included
Publish Air Tasking Order (for Offensive Operations) 5
Prepare Directives 1
multiple UNIX servers, multiple
Conduct Forcible Entry (Initial) 4 Windows NT workstations (one or
Conduct Forcible Entry (Additional) 5 more for each government or contrac-
Conduct Offensive Land Operations (Initial) 3 tor individual), and a LAN. The JWARS
Conduct Offensive Land Operations (Additional) 4 office facility, servers, workstations,
Conduct Defensive Land Operations 2 and LAN are classified “secret”.
Conduct Land Retrograde Operations 3
Provide Firepower in Support of Land Maneuver 4 Technical Approach
Provide Close Air Support 4 The development process had to per-
Conduct a Naval Blockade 4 mit parallel design and implementa-
Conduct Surface Warfare 3 tion, along with periodic integration
Conduct Under-Sea Warfare 4 and testing. The approach was selected
Attack/Interdict Operational Targets (by Air) (Initial) 2 and demonstrated during the proto-
Attack/Interdict Operational Targets (by Air) (Additional) 3 type period, and then refined when the
Attack/Interdict Operational Targets (Surface-to-Surface Missiles) 5 concept of software development
Suppress Enemy Air Defenses 5
threads was introduced for the ORD.
Counter Air Attack (Sea-Based Air-to-Air) 2
The process included OO design and
Counter Air Attack (Land-Based Air-to-Air) 4
implementation and parallel develop-
Counter Air Attack (Surface to Air Defense) 5
ment of multiple threads in iterations.
Provide Maritime Theater Ballistic Missile Defense 1
Conduct Integrated Joint Theater Ballistic Missile Defense 5
Development was subdivided
Chemical Defensive Operations 5 chronologically into iterations. Each
iteration involved the development of
Figure 2. Release 1 Warfare Functionality a set of threads (typically, 10). Five

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plete development environment. This

Operational language was an effective, efficient
Requirements Threads enabler to implementation and test-
Document (ORD) • Specify warfare functionality ing;
Software Development • Functional area-related
Threads • Resource-constrained
• Integration involved combining the
• Relarse 1: 55 threads
new functionality from threads devel-
oped during the iteration with the
Iteration 1
code from the prior iteration;
Assignment to Iterations
Iteration 2 • Sequence threads logically
• Development included three types
• Balance developer workload
Iteration 3 of testing:
• Testing of functionality occurred
Iteration 4 during implementation.
• Testing of overall simulation, to
Iteration 5 ensure that it executes properly
with the newly added functional-
Figure 3. Overview of the Warfare Functionality Development Process ity, occurred during integration.
• Extensive developer testing of
iterations plus several smaller incre- contained in the command and the overall simulation, to ensure
mental releases were necessary to control headquarters’ perception. that it operated as intended, was
develop the warfare functionality of The thread also provides the func- conducted after integration.
Release 1. Figure 3 illustrates how tionality for the command and
threads were assigned to iterations. The control headquarters to perform • The term “Problem Domain”
actual assignment of threads to itera- an assessment of its perception to applies to warfare functionality for
tions is shown in Figure 2. For determine the likely enemy JWARS. The following are two other
instance, the 10 threads identified in Courses of Action. [Joint Warfare areas parallel to, and facilitating,
Figure 2 as having “Iteration = 1” were System (JWARS) Operational Problem Domain development:
developed during that first iteration. Requirements Document (ORD), • Platform Domain—the graphi-
Figure 4 illustrates the develop- Joint Staff / J-8, August 27, 1998, cal user interface
ment process for one iteration. For p. C-6] • Simulation Domain—the simula-
each thread, development involved tion infrastructure, including the
refinement of requirements, high-level During development, the JWARS Spatial Manager, Movement
design, detailed design, implementa- office refined the intent statement for a Manager, Interaction Manager,
tion, and testing at the thread level. thread. The need for such refinement Environment Manager,
The appropriate code was then inte- rendered resource estimation impre- Adjudication Manager, Event
grated and tested, followed by exten- cise and risky. In fact, for many Manager, Data Collection Manager,
sive developer testing. threads, the resource estimates applied and Simulation Manager.
Several aspects of the process dis- in the original decomposition of war-
played in Figure 4 are noteworthy: fare functionality into threads were Development Team
found, during development, to be Central to development were the
• “Requirements Refinement” understated. JWARS government staff and develop-
was needed because the warfare func- ment contractor personnel. Figure 5
tionality requirements were stated • Design employed a case tool that shows the organization of these per-
only broadly in the ORD. For exam- adheres to the Unified Modeling sonnel.
ple, the functionality associated with Language. The specific tool, “Unified The following features of the
thread “Collect Information and Modeling Language Designer,” sup- organization are noteworthy:
Determine Enemy Courses of Action” ported OO development and provided
was specified in the ORD in the intent multiple views—object, event trace, • The government staff of six (see
statement: dynamic, and data flow. This tool pro- top of Figure 5) bought operational
This thread provides the function- vided excellent support to design; experience as well as modeling and
ality to permit a command and simulation expertise, to the project;
control headquarters to receive • Implementation utilized an OO
sensor reports, conduct fusion of language—the VisualAge Smalltalk • The Problem Domain Teams
intelligence information derived language. It included a virtual machine (see left side of Figure 5) developed the
from the sensor reports, and to interface, just-in-time compilation, warfare functionality. Based on func-
add, delete, or update information stop-edit-start capability, and a com- tional area expertise, one government

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 43

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 44

Thread
Code from
Thread Data Prior
Intent External Requirements Iteration JWARS Code
Statement Review Review

Requirements High-Level Detailed Implementation Integration Developer

Refinement Design Design and Testing and Testing
- Mission Space Testing
Analysis
- Requirements Unified Modeling VisualAge
Specifications Language Smalltalk
Case Tool Language

Test Data Sets

JDS Data Support (JDS)

Verification and Validation (V&V)

Figure 4. Warfare Functionality Development Process–One Iteration

staff member was assigned to provide damental. The availability of input facilitated the development, testing,
guidance to each team. For example, data must be considered throughout and verification and validation (V&V)
the U.S. Army representative to the the development process. A scenario of JWARS.
JWARS office provided guidance to the provides the context for input data and
land team. For each iteration, each is necessary for testing. Several groups participated direct-
team generally developed two software Input data are important to JWARS ly or provided individuals who partici-
development threads; development and application. For pated:
development, the availability of data
• The development personnel affects whether a particular design can • JWARS User Groups. There were
(approximately 50) were drawn from be implemented. For application, 17 such groups. Each was functional or
both of the prime contractors and their study-quality data must be obtained area-specific, e.g., land warfare, envi-
subcontractors. They were, for the from appropriate sources. Joint Data ronment, and contained users and
most part, software engineers and Support (JDS) assisted in identifying subject matter experts. These groups
functional specialists. The software input data requirements, judged assisted in refining requirements and
engineers were assigned to the prob- whether such requirements could be then reviewed those requirements
lem domain teams, the data architect satisfied, identified data sources, pro- (Figure 4). In some cases, they also
team, and the teams supporting the vided data for testing, and began the supported design by providing algo-
software architect. Personnel from process of obtaining study-quality rithms consistent with the resolution
both prime contractors were inter- data. The interfaces between JDS and of JWARS and approved by propo-
spersed throughout the organization. developer personnel were primarily nents. Meetings and Internet-based
through the problem domain teams correspondence were utilized for com-
The success of the project was due and the data architect team (Figure 5). munication;
to a sound technical approach and an For Release 1 development
effective organization. But, more and testing, a major theater warfare • JWARS Working Integrated
importantly, it was due to the com- scenario was constructed. For that sce- Product Team (IPT) (Figure 1). This
bined capabilities of a diverse group of nario, JDS supplied most of the data, group oversaw V&V activities and plan-
smart, well-trained, dedicated person- and JWARS developers, acting as users, ning for external testing. It met approx-
nel—both government and contractor. supplied the remainder of the data. imately six times per year;

Data User Participation • JWARS Study Team (Figure 1).

Input data and scenario are both fun- Many organizations and individuals This group, established in 1999, con-

44 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 45

Government Staff

Contractor
Management Lead

Quality Assurance and

Requirements Management

Problem Technical
Manager Support Teams
Domain Lead

Air and Space Training Team

Data Architect System Software
Team
Team Architect Architect
Joint Cata Support (JDS)

Scenario
Land Team
Software Integration Team Development

Maritime Team Object Analysis Integration Team External Support

Platform Domain
C4ISR Team Information
Simulation Domain Team Security

Transportation Developer Testing Team

and Log Team Internal Support

Figure 5. Organization of the Development Team

tained users drawn from future user • Development was bid on again • Iterations were replaced with
sites in the Washington, DC, USA area. in 2001, this time through the blanket smaller incremental Releases, such as
It reviewed and exercised the simula- purchasing agreement contracting Release 1.4 that was distributed for
tion, examined documentation, and mechanism. The two incumbents were Beta testing in July 2002.
provided detailed feedback to the the successful bidders.
JWARS office in the form of change • Software development threads
requests. It met at least biweekly were replaced with smaller units of
through summer 2002. 1. ODPA&E Simulation and work, known as work packages. An
Analysis Center example of a work package is
• Test Sites. Beta testing was per- “Incorporate Attack Helicopters.”
2. Joint Staff / J-8 / Warfighting
formed by the future user sites listed in
Analysis Division
Figure 6. Members of the JWARS study • During development, external
team provided the nuclei for test sites 3. Air Force Studies and review occurred after high-level design,
in the Washington, DC, USA area (the Analysis Agency rather than before it (Figure 4).
first six sites on the list). 4. Center for Army Analysis
A V&V agent performed V&V for • Integration only at the end of
JWARS. This contractor facilitated V&V 5. U.S. Navy N-81 an iteration or at the end of an incre-
reviews of design products and code by 6. Marine Corps Combat mental Release resulted in signifi-
users and subject matter experts, and Development Command cant cross-functional area
provided results and findings to the difficulties. Therefore, integration
JAMIP Steering Committee.
7. U.S. Central Command was performed more frequently—
8. U.S. Special Operations every few weeks.
Evolution of Processes Command
As development proceeded, several of Insights
the processes described above changed. 9. U.S. Transportation Command This project offers the following
Listed here are significant adjustments 10. United States Forces Korea insights that may be applicable to
that occurred during the period mid- other large-scale software develop-
2000 through summer 2002. Table 6. Test Sites ment efforts:

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 45

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 46

• Object-oriented design and testing has both positive and negative beginning of development. For any
implementation for a large-scale simu- impacts. As an advantage, insights on simulation development project,
lation development, such as JWARS, is what must be represented and how it input data and scenario must be con-
feasible and practical. For design, use should be represented are valuable. As sidered from the beginning.
of a case tool that adheres to the a disadvantage, proponents seek ever-
Unified Modeling Language is effec- increasing detail, which can delay Epilogue
tive. The object-oriented design and development and extend runtime. After the author departed in summer
implementation process may be appli- Again, the utility of this approach for 2002, many changes occurred to the
cable to software development projects other projects should be judged on a JWARS development project, including:
for customers other than the DoD, and case-by-case basis.
for software other than simulations. • Beta Testing of Release 1.4, which
• Predicting a schedule for devel- had begun in July 2002, was completed
• Integrating government and con- opment of a simulation with the successfully in December 2002. Release
tractor personnel in a single develop- scope of JWARS, and with only broad- 1.5 was distributed to user sites in
ment facility yields productive, if ly stated functionality requirements, September 2003.
occasionally contentious, discourse is imprecise and risky.
and minimizes surprises. The utility of • A new Study Team was formed
this approach for other projects should • Input data and scenario are fun- in May 2003, and was charged with
be judged on a case-by-case basis. damental to the development, testing, formal testing of the simulation, devel-
and application of a simulation such opment of scenarios and data, and per-
• Involvement of users and subject as JWARS. This area should have been formance of a study using the
matter experts in development and given greater emphasis from the simulation.

JIM METZGER has been an operations research analyst for 27 years. During that period, he has developed
and applied simulations for the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity, Army Concepts Analysis
Agency (now Center for Army Analysis), and Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). From 1995 until
October 2002, he was the Director of the JWARS Office, which reports to the Director, OSD Program Analysis
and Evaluation. He is now an employee of Northrop Grumman Information Technology, serving as a member
of the National Industry Team supporting the Missile Defense Agency.

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46 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 47

This article is copyrighted material and has been reproduced with the permission of Project
Management Institute, Inc. Unauthorized reproduction of this material is strictly prohibited.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN THE

AGE OF COMPLEXITY AND CHANGE
ALI JAAFARI Project Management Research Programme, Building J05
The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Sydney, Australia.

omplex society is a state of society in its evolution that sociologist call

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a study of complex
society and its relationship to project
C “take-off“ stage. It exhibits the following characteristics:

• Open systems. A complex society is made of a complex web of inter-

management. The complex society is acting open systems that are subject to instability and in throes of constant
characterised by open systems, chaos, change within of an Internet like network of interconnections and interrela-
self organisation and interdependence. tionships;
Accelerated change drives instability and
• Chaos. The complex society is affected by uncertainties that are beyond
chaos following an autocatalytic process.
The conventional project management long term contemplation and thus defy the classical management approach of
approach assumes a world of order and a orderly planning and control. Social systems change when the conditions are
predictable environment in which one can right following an autocatalytic process;
set and deliver a clear set of goals in a • Self-organisation. In a complex society the tendency is for self organi-
defined manner. The traditional approach
sation to take place following the autocatalytic process leading to autonomous
is open to challenge. The author argues
that a paradigm shift in project manage- organic (self steering) organisation units, based on insights and competence
ment is essential for it to be relevant and of the actors as well as synergy, flexibility and teamwork; and
effective in a complex society of this cen- • Interdependence. The growth of interdependence makes it increasingly
tury. Research is needed to further define difficult, if not impossible, to make any predictions on the basis of previous
a fresh understanding of project manage-
experience. Thus, it is important to avoid development and use of a linear
ment and how it that can respond to the
challenges of the complex society. This reductionist model for forecasting the behavior of future events.
necessitates working globally to advance These characteristics illustrate the rising complexity in the society that
the field. stem from rapid technological, social, economical and global change, consid-
ered by many as irreversible (Geyer, 1998; London, 1996). The science of
Key words: complexity theory, open
complexity has shown that systemic change is not a mechanistic, progressive,
systems, chaos, project management
and linear phenomenon whose causes and effects can be clearly isolated.
The science of complexity has now developed to the extent that it is
©2003 by the Project Management Institute applied to many fields such as natural and social sciences, management and
Vol. 34, No. 4, 47-57, ISSN 8756-9728/03 the arts. For example, Tyson (1998) argues that it has changed the worldview
of science in all spheres including social sciences. There is a growing body of
literature on this subject and a number of Internet portals serve the interests
of the research community (e.g.[Link]
CIO Magazine in its issue of 15 April 1998 (as quoted in the above por-
tal) states: “However, most traditional management literature has focused on
control as a means of compliance instead of self-regulation and self-control
and on extraneous rewards and incentives instead of intrinsic motivation.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 47

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 48

However, a better understanding of • Information and communications who experience change. The theory of
autonomous human behavior under- technology driving both economic and complexity has shown that change
pinning individual, group and social social growth (and productivity) takes place spontaneously and as a
interactions is required for appreciat- • The creation of web-like value result of what is referred to as an ‘auto-
ing the notions of self-adaptive and chains in a global marketplace rather than catalytic’ process.
emergent systems.” (CIO, April 15, linear, geographically narrow value The concept of autocatalytic
1998, quoted in the above portal) chains. Increased opportunities for export process generating change is rather
and greater availability of imports. new and relates to Prigogine and
Knowledge-Based Society and Change • An increase in the trade of “intan- Stengers (1984) and later Kauffman
Knowledge-based society is the mani- gible” goods and services (know how, (1991, 1992 and 1995) and a number
festation of the accelerated technologi- design, branding etc) and increased provi- of other researchers working at the
cal, social and economic change sion of customised as opposed to commod- Santa Fe Institute. The advent of the
embodied within a complex society. ity goods/services. new science of complexity has been
While change has been in progress • A regulatory environment which largely attributed to Prigogine, a
since the dawn of creation, it has sel- encourages people and organisations to be noble laureate in Chemistry in 1977,
dom been felt so drastically as in cur- entrepreneurial, to innovate and to take- who in his landmark book: “Order out
rent times (Geyer, 1998; London, up technological advances. of Chaos” explored the nature of
1996). In the past, the rate of change • Capital markets which value inno- change through “dissipative struc-
was rather slow, so in a person’s life- vation and know-how and actively stimu- tures” which are nowadays referred to
time change was virtually impercepti- late growth in this area of the economy” as open systems.
ble. But now in a lifetime one Researchers since have found that
experiences significant change influ- Change has thus transformed and there are surprising similarities
encing all aspects of life. “Change is continues to transform the world in between natural and social systems
not only here to stay, but the rate of which we live. How can we understand when it comes to the study of change.
change itself is increasing, also as a and model change? Without a proper The science of complexity postulates
result of increasing global interde- perspective on change as a phenome- that the advent of life and evolution of
pendence in all imaginable areas of non we cannot understand what possi- biological complexity from simple
human activity, and shows no signs of ble role project management can play organisms to what can be observed
ever slowing down. This leads not only in the complex societies of the 21st today, were not the product of chance
to change in existing procedures, insti- Century and how the less advanced but as part of a natural evolutionary
tutions, ideologies, etc., but also to the societies can be assisted in their quest order following the autocatalytic
emergence of completely new phe- to achieve accelerated economic and process.
nomena in the present information social progress. Geyer (1998:3) states: “Under an
age.” (Geyer, 1998:2) Herbert Spencer, Karl Marx, and autocatalytic process simple chemical laws
The modern society has come a August Comte have all subscribed to coupled with the presence of a sufficient
long way from that which existed an evolutionary view of change number of frequently interacting elements
200 years ago at the dawn of indus- (London, 1996). These authors’ con- produce ever more complex elements, with
trial revolution (Kelly, 1997). The viction of irreversibility of change was new characteristics, that often turn out to
rate of change will accelerate even typical of the late 19th Century widely be part of new catalytic processes at high-
further as the boundaries between held scientific belief that progress was er levels of molecular complexity—process-
national and global economies will natural. Commenting on the contempo- es which in turn boost the emergence of
merge and as the free trading blocs rary view of that time, London (1996:3) still higher levels of complexity.
will evolve into integrated social and states: “The dynamic force in progress was, The economist Arthur (1990), col-
economic communities, such as that like that in biological evolution, the com- laborating closely with Kaufmann at the
of European Union (Jaafari, 2001). A petitive struggle for existence in which the Santa Fe Institute, applied the concept of
look at the economies of advanced fit survive and the unfit perish. This inter- autocatalytic sets to the economy: the
nations is most revealing in compar- pretation of social change was especially economy too bootstraps its own evolution,
ison with the smoke stacks of the popular among the so-called Social as it grows more complex over time.
19th century, as articulated by Sorrell Darwinists (even though Darwin himself Beyond a certain critical threshold, phase
(2001): was no Social Darwinist and Spencer’s transitions occur; stagnant developing
• “People and organisations pro- theory of social evolution preceded countries can enter the take-off stage when
ducing wealth from innovation and Darwin’s theories of biological evolution their economy has diversified sufficiently.
ideas, intellectual property, workforce by several years.)” Increased trade between two countries in a
competencies, research and develop- A study of change as a phenome- subcritical state can similarly produce a
ment, rather than wealth production non will bring with it the question of more complex and interwoven economy
being primarily dependent on the con- who directs the change and what sort which becomes supercritical and explodes
trol of physical or financial assets of reaction it generates among those outward. Catalytic effects might also oper-

48 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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ate in phase transitions that are considered Responses to Societal Complexity Group Self Organization
negative, where critical thresholds of vio- How does an accelerated change (and At group level, autonomous organisa-
lence are passed as in Northern Ireland or rising social complexity) influence the tions tend to grow both as a natural
Bosnia.” society as a whole or the individual response to the environmental com-
Thus, according to the autocat- and groups within it? Research has plexity and due to individual complex-
alytic view, economic and social shown that increased social complexi- ity reduction capabilities. Self
orders both cause and experience fication has resulted in increased self- organisation runs opposite to hierar-
change and that what we observe and reference at individual level and a rise chies. Geyer (1998:9) states that:
measure in a particular time is a snap- in self-organisation at group level. “However, like the iterative sequence of
shot of what otherwise is a continuum (Geyer, 1998; Kirshbaum, 1999) variety-selection-stabilization has become
of evolution. Change is always at a more or less accepted paradigm in evolu-
work, chiseling at the base of stability Individual Self-Reference tionary studies, societal evolution likewise
of a system and preparing the system Self consciousness or self reference is seems based on, first, proliferation of vari-
for a sudden and rapid shock, called a a natural human trait which can be ety (i.e. self-organization), then selection
phase transition. enhanced through linguistic abilities of those self-organized units that can stand
Examples of phase transitions for codification of information, inter- the test of time, and finally emergence of a
can be observed in nature, e.g. when nalization and processing of the same new hierarchical level to coordinate these
ice reaches the melting temperature and subsequent communication and self-organized units.
it turns into water, which in turn reflection. Self reference is on the rise Sociology has always been rather
converts into steam when it reaches and as a reaction of individuals to the ambivalent about hierarchy, and an
the boiling point. While we only see rising environmental complexity. Self important issue in social science has
the sudden change of water turning reference assists an individual to always been whether one should opt for
into steam, the reality is that water develop capabilities to understand the “katascopic” or the “anascopic” view
molecules would have been heated and digest environmental complexity of society; in other words, should the
continuously thus paving the way and to apply an appropriate degree of behavior of individuals and groups be
for a phase transition at a critical environmental complexity reduction planned from the top down, in order for a
point. This analogy applies to social internally in order to better handle society to survive in the long run, or
systems, driven by technological, external complexity and uncertainty should the insight of actors at every level,
political and social catalysts. in decision making. Geyer (1998) including the bottom one, be increased
states that self reference is on the rise and therewith their competence to handle
Perception of Complex Society in tandem with rising environmental their environment more effectively and
The contemporary view in sociology complexity. engage more successfully in goal-seeking
is that there is an outside reality (i.e. Normally those who have devel- behavior?”
as opposed to what is residing oped a high degree of self reference are Chin and Benne in their classic
inside people’s mind) but not nec- those who thrive on change and have textbook: “The Planning of Change”
essarily an objective reality, and that developed adequate capacity to han- have offered 3 approaches to triggering
individuals, depending on their dle environmental complexity. These change or as they call these general
mental models, normally perceive are the people who will not only be at strategies for effecting changes in
this reality in their own way. (Geyer, the forefront of change, but will be its human systems: rational-empirical, nor-
1998) Mental models are observer- driving force, adapting quickly to new mative-reeducative and power-coercive
dependent, time-dependent and circumstances they have themselves The rational-empirical approach
problem-dependent. In addition to helped to create. Usually, they come states that provided the appropriate
these dependencies and to grasp the from the rich countries, have had a conditions are in place, people will
complexity of the environment, a nurturing early-life environment, and behave rationally and will embrace
certain amount of internalization of have a high degree of education. Self change. Chin and Benne offer the fol-
the outside reality or complexity reference can be further developed lowing strategies to effect change
reduction of the environment is through reflective learning and evalua- under a rational-empirical approach:
needed. This is a function of the tion of the behavior (or feedback) • Provide the right information,
competency of the individual con- from the immediate environment to education or training to allow individ-
cerned. Luhmann (1978 and 1986) one’s internal model; the latter being uals to change of their own volition.
calls this a “complexity differential” updated regularly in response to a rap- • Ensure that the “right” people
between the individual and the idly changing environment. are in the right “place” to bring about
environment. If this reduction is Development of reflective practice is a needed changes.
not optimal, then the observer long process and requires a high level • Invite the perspectives or expert-
views the world either too complex of education and professional devel- ise of outsiders.
or too simple, both of which may opment, not normally attainable • Engage in research and
lead to sub-optimal reactions. through short term training. development.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 49

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• Promote utopian thinking to However, self organisation is not regions, or social and civic codes of
stimulate creativity and “best-case” confined to new and technology-based communities and self-imposed moral
scenarios. enterprises. It is a post-war phenome- standards or ethics. It appears that
• Clarify the issues and/or recon- non and appears to be the basis for these self-organising groups of people
ceptualize the situation in order to advanced societies functioning more form the building blocks of a knowl-
bring about greater overall understand- efficiently and effectively. The role of edge-based society.
ing among members of the group. governments has changed to that of
The normative-reeducative approach facilitator not driver of economic and Individual Behavior and Response
is founded on the assumption that even social progress. to Change
change begins from the bottom up, Self organisation in management According to Geyer (1998:5) people
not top down. Under this approach it manifests itself mostly in the form of can be classified into 4 basic types in
is appropriate to focus on changing the “learning organisations” in the sense terms of their responses to change:
individuals who make up a social sys- that these are self-designing, self- those who thrive on change; those
tem. Chin and Benne offer the follow- assessing, self-renewing and entrepre- who try to abstain from change as far
ing strategies for applying this neurial organisations. (Senge, 1990; as possible; those who resist change;
approach: Kanter, et al, 1992) Learning organisa- and those who experience change
• Improve the problem-solving tions are flexible and open. Systemic unknowingly and somehow cope with
capacities of a system by encouraging change occurs simultaneously and syn- it or are oblivious to it. Obviously it is
individuals to be self-diagnosing. ergistically, based on the competence possible for a person to experience or
• Release and foster growth in the and perceptions of individuals, teams exhibit more than one type of response
persons who make up the system. and larger groups and in response to during his or her life. Also, humans
• The third approach, power-coer- environmental change. Has there been can exhibit more than one reaction to
cive is for effecting change through a huge rush to embrace the concept of complex situations, depending on
political movements and social learning organisations in manage- their mental models, information and
activism. Strategies offered by Chin ment? The reality is that learning media manipulation, social norms and
and Benne are: organisation is little understood or accepted standards, peer group pres-
• Using political institutions to applied in a meaningful way. Most sure or group think phenomenon.
achieve change. organisations are reluctant to embrace Nevertheless, the classification offered
• Shifting the balance of power change unless these are externally driv- by Geyer is very useful in the sense that
between social groups, especially rul- en. (Kanter et al, 1992). it provides an insight into, and an
ing elites. A learning organization is one in explanation of the underlying causes
• Weakening or dividing the which five learning disciplines are con- for the social, political and economical
opposition through moral coercion or tinually pursued: personal mastery, tensions that currently beset the world.
strategies of non-violence. improving individual mental models, Table 1, developed by the author,
The recent trend is for self organi- building a shared vision, team learning contains a detailed point comparison
sation to proliferate in tandem with the and thinking systematically. According of the 4 types of people in terms of
increased environmental complexity. to Senge (1990), the fifth discipline — their behavior and reaction to change.
Witness the rise of SMEs and their eco- systems thinking — ties all these disci- As seen, the ideal advanced knowl-
nomic influence in advanced plines together. Senge (1990) notes edge-based society is the one whose
economies of the world. As a matter of that the really significant and enduring members are partial to change and
fact, the growth of self organising units innovations he has observed have possess considerable social and eco-
within clusters of such units in grown out of people from multiple nomic skills. That is a society based on
advanced economies is taken as indica- constituencies working together. In well-educated, self-organising, compe-
tors for economic strength in this cen- education, for instance, “it’s been a few tent citizenry, not on tribalism or reli-
tury. Kotkin and Devol in their book committed teachers with some bright gious affiliation or ethnicity. This is
The Renewed City in the Digital Age ideas, in concert with a principal who has hard to achieve when even in the case
(2000) state “Under the new regime of a particular view of his or her job, in con- of advanced societies the majority of
geography, wherever intelligence clusters— cert with a superintendent who is in line the population tend to be uncomfort-
small towns, big city or any geographic loca- with that principal, and in concert with able with change, withdrawing from
tion—that is where wealth will people in the community who are very the complex society as far as they can.
accumulate. Such concentrations are far much part of the innovation process.” Hofstede in his book “Culture and
less constrained by traditional determinants (London, 1996) Organizations: Software of the Mind”
such as strategic location near waterways or Self organisations can function in (1991) states that basic human mental
raw materials, or by the proximity to dense response to complex rules and princi- programming determines our
concentrations of population.” (quoted in ples, ranging from the constitutions approaches to personal relationships,
[Link] of nations through to fiscal and eco- business transactions and manage-
es/[Link]) nomic policies and regulations of ment. He developed the Lily Pond

50 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 51

the large scale issues over which they

Behaviour cannot have any influence.
Sometimes they are referred to cyni-
cally as the silent majority. While
they pose no immediate danger to
societal stability their apathy can be a
Attitudes/beliefs threat to the long term evolution of
the society (Geyer, 1998).

Project Management in the

Age of Accelerated Change
In many countries of the world where
Values/basic programming
the dominant view is that of strong
religious or cultural affiliation, there
will be a predominance of Type 3 per-
sons, who not only resist change but
Unquestioned assumptions: may in fact mount a concerted battle
against it. Thus, there may be inherent
What is right and wrong/ethics.
resistance to any project that threatens
the traditional values of the affected
Figure 1. The Lily Pond Model (Hofstede 1991) communities or the power base of
their leaders. How should project
model (Figure 1) to provide a visual Considering the complex society, managers approach change in this type
representation of the interrelation- the relentless pace of change, the of setting?
ships. Values are based on the unequal division of affluence, wealth Type 4 persons are also of contem-
ingrained assumptions about what is and opportunity around the globe, porary concern, as they are normally
right or wrong. He found that the what should be the role of project the forgotten people of the third world
underlying human assumptions are management at both individual and whose focus is on survival, finding
based on family, education, linguistic, organisational levels? enough to eat or shelter for themselves
gender, social, regional, religious and Take the example of stakeholders’ and their families. They are neither
ethnic backgrounds (cultural and fam- management. An essential project aware of nor in a position to influence
ily influences). Values influence the management competency must surely their society. How should project man-
attitudes and perceptions, which in concern the assessment and effective agers approach projects in these and
turn influence our behavior. management of the different types of any other disenfranchised sections of
Of course, what is seen is the surface of reaction that change can generate, in the world communities?
the pond or our exhibited behavior; what the context of a project or a business The example of stakeholders’
should be taken into account in any cultur- unit operation. The literature on stake- management highlights the complexi-
al transformation studies is the entire value holders’ management (c.f. Manivong, ty of project management in a complex
system. Thus, early socialization plays a key 2000) holds that managing stakehold- society and management of change.
role in personal formation and develop- ers is no more than devising a process Contrary to the common belief that
ment. The agents of socialization include of engaging and effective communica- project management is the tool to
the family, school, peer groups, the media tion with the stakeholders. This change management, there is no evi-
and religious and political institutions. process management perspective dence to suggest that the current mod-
These agents make individuals aware of implicitly assumes that all stakehold- els of project management are capable
what is acceptable behavior and what con- ers are Type 1 persons and embrace of assisting change management or
stitutes the norms, values and the prevail- change easily. aiding planning, creation and delivery
ing culture of their society. The majority of the people, even of complex value chains globally. One
“One has minimally to take into in the advanced societies of the West, thing is clear: a classical approach to
account one’s “programming” through are not interested in active involve- management of projects as taught in
early-life socialization, the myriad sub- ment in the life of their communities. project management courses or
jective filters, prejudices, experiences, etc. They seek gratification from involve- espoused in the literature, may have a
which one has accumulated in the course ment in niche areas of their interest, limited utility on the face of accelerat-
of a lifetime, and has to reckon also with sports, arts or things that they can ed change and increased complexity.
the limited factual knowledge and com- relate to and or receive an immediate The prevalence of failure currently
puting capacity of the human brain feedback from their engagement. experienced on many technology-
which can hold only so many variables These are Type 2 people who feel it is based projects has been studied widely
simultaneously.” (Geyer, 1998:5) pointless to involve themselves with and found to be generally related to

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 51

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 52

Point Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

(Nerds) (Average citizens) (Fanatics, extremists) (Outcasts,downtrodden)

Character Reflective, aware & Introvert, withdraws Reactive, resists Un-involved,

attuned to the from complexity, change, follows disinterested, not
surrounding limits confrontation group thinking, concerned with
environment, in with change, seeks threatened by change or passively
search of new simplistic pursuits, complexity, in search accepts it,
information & likes quick response of pure ideologies, submissive,
experiences, outcome from own actions, character defined by downtrodden, feel
focussed, goal driven feels cannot influence absolute beliefs, as not counted or
behaviour complex situations in religion, driven by accepts exploitation
hate & abuse of all sorts

Capability Leading change, Competent in narrow May have expertise Not generally
competent in the areas, e.g. simple in a field but articulate, no
application of intellectual tasks or generally not definitive skills,
professional tools and trades. Able to read worried about mostly engaged in
techniques, competent and write but not to keeping up to date, subsistence living,
to practice in a field of understand the guided by concerned with
endeavour, possesses complex societal fundamentalism in immediate survival
social cultural issues over which all spheres of issues of food and
competencies they feel have no activity, generally shelter
control engages in anti-
establishment
activities

Approach Open minded, follows Superficial, finds it Follows oversimplis- Mostly fatalistic,
an open systems easier to follow tic philosophies, accepting
thinking, mental dominant lines, open fanatical as of wretchedness as
models are time, to manipulation, religious extremists, natural, feeling
problem & observer follows simple and white supremacists, powerless, follows
dependent ingrained mental or other similar fringe survival instincts
models groups

Criteria Fitness of purpose, Emotional & socio- Blind belief in own Survival and keeping
fitness for purpose, ethnic bias, closed ideologies, absolute alive, not overly
value, harmony in value system, seeks and resolute in one’s concerned with
relationships, personal immediate feedback, righteousness, criteria as feels
ethics, resolution of ok to live with high guided by group powerless to change
conflicts, faith ambiguity, wary of reaction & engage in own destiny or the
change endorsed activities environment

Self reference Changing & renewing A low degree of self Non-existent as one Practically non-
own mental models, reference as relates to is guided by others’ existent, guided by
aware of and self interaction with a expectation, social order and class
referential small circle of friends standards, systems (as in India),
and work mates, in ‘established wisdom’ knows own place in
pursuit of hobbies and an absolute truth the society

Development Normally from a rich Forms possibly the Normally from Normally from third
country, well educated majority in Western developing countries world countries
& enculturated, well democracies, well with low education & without even basic
nurtured family, schooled but not formation, strong education, health or
professional empowered, may even religious and ethnic other developmental
development, be a professional enculturation, or benefits taken for
independent thinker society member, extreme groups in granted in developed
and learner highly dependent developed countries countries
thinker & learner with low education &
no proper formation

Table 1. Characteristics of 4 types of People in terms of Reaction to change

52 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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managerial approaches to the human dynamics of the complex society. in the process.
and organisational factors rather than Essentially this classification reflects This model of project manage-
technology, per se. Many IT/IS projects the evolution of project management ment is typically characterised by
are highly complex projects that seek over time and in response to rising absence of any formal systems and or
to transform organisations in a pro- environmental and project complexity. consideration of the competence of the
found way. The author submits that individual players. Most decisions and
this is a manifestation of the failure of Type 1: Ad-hoc Model the rules are made on the run, and
the contemporary project management This approach was typical when proj- decision makers’ positions can vary
model to respond to the challenges ect management was not recognised as considerably depending on their ‘gut
faced by this class of projects. a systemic approach and when organi- feelings’ of the situation.
sations used to apply ad-hoc methods Type 1 approaches work when the
The Four Types of Project to achieve their desired outcomes. At a environmental complexity is rather
Management Models time when both environmental com- low and when project is also simple
In this paper, the author uses the term plexity and project complexity were enough that the players can get their
“model” to refer to the underlying low, projects could be defined as minds around it and or the project is
approach or philosophical framework departmental initiatives and handled really of a similar line. Figure 3 shows
that guides the formation of profes- informally by any person who hap- its limitations.
sionals (professional development) pened to be closest to the action with-
and their approach to planning and out any due concern about the Type 2: Bureaucratic Model
management of projects (professional person’s competence or management This approach is common on many
practice). The author has used the of environmental complexity. Most public sector projects and undertak-
environmental complexity and project professionals who landed this role ings. It is the next step in the evolution
manager’s capability in complexity were (and some still are) accidental path and a reaction to the often spec-
reduction (including stakeholders’ project managers. They tended to use tacular project failures under the pre-
management) to define 4 typical their experience and intuition to steer vious models when significant
approaches or models as shown in the project to a conclusion. complexities are present. Many organ-
isations have typically sought to influ-
ence the project outcomes by
Environmental Complexity
imposing bureaucratic controls,
Low High involving over-elaborate procedures,
administrative processes, approvals
and maintenance of records. Typically
3 4 the project is run for full bureaucratic
High

Normative model Creative-reflective compliance rather than for achieving

Project Complexity

model optimal results. Such approaches tend

to be either overcomplicated and or
oversimplified, both of which are due
to the managers’ inability to apply an
appropriate degree of environmental
1 2 complexity reduction and or due to a
Low

Ad-hoc model Bureaucratic model set of rigid organisational policies and

methodologies.
The author speculates that project
managers of this approach are typical-
ly those who resist change and despise
environmental complexity intruding
Figure 2. Broad Classification of Project Management Models
their routine decision making and
Figure 2: (1) ad-hoc model; (2) Type 1 model is prone to conflicts. operational freedom. They are in
bureaucratic model; (3) normative On the face of observed unacceptable search of stability and imposition of
model; and (4) creative-reflective deviations in project functionality or order (command and control) mode
model. This approach enables us to cost or duration, the search for the of management. They feel that their
identify whether or not the contempo- guilty party will begin and normally power base can be threatened by the
rary models of project management end up in messy and protracted litiga- introduction of change and or devia-
are capable of responding to the com- tions. The premise in this methodolo- tion from ‘established procedures’. This
plex society and also whether or not gy is that all facts are known and model has a lot to do with mainte-
approaches to professional develop- project deviations are the result of nance of power and imposition of con-
ment of project managers reflect the default on the part of the participants trol than good management practices.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 53

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 54

POINT MODEL A MODEL B

Character Technical, logical; problem-solving Creative, interpretive; design

Capability Solvable, convergent problems Congruent futures; ‘messes,’ problematic

situations, divergent problems

Approach Solving problems; applying knowledge Understanding problematic situations and

competently and rationally resolving conflicts of value; framing and
creating desired outcomes

Criteria Logic, efficiency, planned outcomes; Values, ethics, congruence of both

cause-effect, proof methods and outcomes; systemic
interrelationships, theory, faith

Epistemology Objectivism: knowledge is stable and general; Constructivism: knowledge is transient,

precedes and guides action situational, personal and unique; both
informs action and is generated by it

Validation By reference to others’ expectations: By questioning fitness for purpose,

standards, accepted wisdom, established fitness of purpose and systemic
discourse; ‘truth’ validity; ‘value’

Thinking Primarily deductive / analytical; sceptical of Inductive, deductive and abductive;

intuition uses ‘intelligent intuition’

Profession A bounded, externally-defined role, A portfolio of learningful activity

characterised by norms, values and a individual to the practitioner,
knowledge-base common to the profession integrated by personal identity,
perspectives, values and capabilities

Professionalism Objectivity, rules, codes of practice Exploration of own and others' values,
personal ethics, mutual enquiry,
shared expectations

Professional Defined by the employer, professional body or Negotiated by the participants and
standards other external agency according to its norms situation in accordance with their
and values other stakeholders in the
practice values, beliefs and
desired outcomes

Professional Initial development concerned with acquiring Ongoing learning and practice through
development knowledge, developing reflective practice, critical enquiry
competence and enculturation into the and creative synthesis and action;
profession’s value system; continuing continual questioning and refinement of
development concerned with maintaining personal knowledge, understanding,
competence and updating knowledge practice, values and beliefs

Table 2. Point Comparison between 2 Principle Models of Professionality (Lester 1994)

54 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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on the principles of self organisation

Very and the insights and competence of
High
the players in the project value chain.
Practitioners in this model are empow-
ered individuals, who possess a high
degree of self-referential skills and are
Environmental Complexity

partial to change. Their functions tran-

High
scend that of a rational process-driven
approach to that of a creative approach
Type 4 Creative-Reflective through which they are able to achieve
breakthrough solutions to optimally
respond to both environmental and
project complexity.
Medium Project managers are necessarily Type 1
Type 3 Normative people when it comes to handling
complexity and change. Geyer (1998:5)
characterizes them as follows:
1. They will be fully aware that their mod-
Low Type 2
Bureaucratic els are observer-dependent, i.e. they are
Type 1 Ad-hoc
open to new information from those with
Low Medium High Very High different models, and will engage in a suffi-
cient amount of self-reference to be at least
Project Complexity
roughly aware how their own models have
originated, depending on their early-life
Figure 3. Schematic Comparison of 4 Models of Prject Management in terms of Complexity conditioning, subsequent socialization and
resulting psychological make-up;
Most practitioners of this model work mal degree of environmental complex- 2. They will be sufficiently flexible to real-
with the same model, irrespective of ity reduction. Type 3 is the rational ize that their models are not eternally
the nature of their projects. approach and assumes that there is valid, but time-dependent, and therefore
As with the Type 1 model, the sufficient certainty and stability in should be updated regularly as new infor-
capacity of this approach to handle environment that it will be possible to mation becomes available, or is even
both environmental and project com- define a set of goals and a framework actively sought;
plexity is really limited; at best it can for orderly planning and delivery of 3. Realizing that their models are also prob-
work when both environmental com- projects. Nearly all published bodies of lem-dependent, they will certainly not strive
plexity and project complexity are in knowledge, approach by professional to obtain a single, monolithic model of their
the range of low to medium (Figure 3). bodies and their certification schemes world, but will develop a set of different
underlie this model. models to deal with different situations.
Type 3: Normative Model The Type 3 model has a limited Lester (1994) refers to this class of
This type is the contemporary model capacity in handling environmental professionals as Model B. He has provided
of project management (the so-called complexity though it can handle a an interesting point comparison between
best practice model), which according high degree of project complexity the normative (Model A) and creative-
to Lester (1994) falls within Type A of (Figure 3). Its limitation has already reflective (Model B) included in Table 2.
professions that are technical / bureau- been reflected in reported project fail- Creative-reflective project man-
cratic in nature and knowledge-based ures in complex IT and software sys- agers are not necessarily members of a
“(the Industrial Revolution model, tems, new complex products and particular professional body, but those
embracing both the professionalisa- organisational transformation (to who engage in lifelong learning and
tion of the mediaeval trade guilds and name a few). continuous personal development, act
the 20th century managerial profes- autonomously, believe in shared val-
sions)”. Based on the work of Schön Type 4: Creative-reflective Model ues and follow strong personal ethics.
(1983) and Fish (1995), Lester (1994) Type 4 is well suited to projects that are
has defined the normative model as typically conceived and delivered with- Preparation of Individual
Model A professionalism (see Table 2 in a complex society. It relies on the Project Managers
for details). ability of professionals to apply an The emergence of the complex socie-
This model works best when the optimal degree of environmental com- ty as a manifestation of rapid and
environmental complexity (or extent plexity reduction to handle a high irreversible change signifies that
of uncertainty) is low and when proj- degree of uncertainty and even thrive models for project management
ect managers are able to apply an opti- on the edge of chaos. This model relies preparation cannot be based on past

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 55

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practices, as the bandwidth within shed light on the proportion of project of the new sciences of complexity.
which an appropriate degree of envi- managers in each category in terms of Research has confirmed that generally
ronmental complexity reduction can reaction to change and also project speaking the world is subject to an
be applied is moving in parallel to management models subscribed to. accelerating rate of change and that the
the rise in environmental complexifi- The author’s experience in the develop- emergence of the complex society is a
cation. As was put by Jarvis (1983) ment of project managers through the stage in the process of continual evolu-
“using a list of empirically-derived crite- graduate programme at The University tion. This stage has been referred to as
ria without an underlying theory can be of Sydney and numerous research a take-off state, exhibiting instability
arbitrary (and provides rules based on work undertaken suggest that the cur- and chaos and characterised by open
past practices rather than principles rent models for professional prepara- systems, self organisation and interde-
applicable to future ones).” tion and certification tied to the pendence. Individuals react differently
Robinson (2000) argues that a normative approach are ill-suited to to change depending on their internal
new style of leadership- dubbed trans- the emerging complex society. model and the context and time. In
formational leadership-, is emerging in addition, rapid rise complexity has
order “to allow individuals and organiza- The Need For International given rise to a rise in self reference and
tions to thrive at the edge of chaos, inspir- Collaboration In Research self organisation. Not everyone per-
ing the innovation and creativity needed The emergence of the sciences of com- ceives the complexity in the same man-
to develop new products and technologies, plexity as studied in this paper brings ner even when the context remains the
even new business models that can lead to with it the question of project manage- same. Each person needs to apply an
sustainable competitive advantage in the ment relevance in the age of open sys- appropriate degree of complexity
new economy. The context for transforma- tems, chaos, self organisation and reduction to understand and inter-
tional leadership includes a kind of interdependence. The author put for- nalise an image of environmental
visionary acumen that can articulate win- ward a progressive perspective of proj- complexity.
ning and success in a way that captures ect management evolution and argued Project management is supposed-
the imagination of others. In doing so, that the creative-reflective model is ly a systemic approach to management
like-minded contributors can be invited to best suited to handling complexity and of change but its foundation lies in the
add their views to amplify the meaning chaos. However, this model is not traditional rational managerialism
and purpose of the company such that known as the contemporary view of thus facing an increasing threat of irrel-
everyone is inspired to do their best work project management is that of a ration- evance unless newer models are devel-
and serve the greater needs of the enter- al and normative approach driven by oped to respond to change and
prise and its customers”. techniques. complexity. The author has put for-
The author postulates that the As noted the normative approach ward a concept for a creative-reflective
transformational leadership is reflect- cannot handle environmental com- model that is effective in the age of
ed in the creative-reflective approach plexity well. There is an acute need to complexity. The elements of this
to management of projects, and that develop the creative-reflective model, model as yet remain to be researched
development of project managers including the relevant bodies of and developed.
needs to change from the current pre- knowledge that enable management of
occupation with learning techniques projects in the age of complexity. The References
for the application of the so-called best same sort of concerted multi-discipli- Arthur, W. B. (1990), Positive
practice to competency for manage- nary efforts that led to the creation of feedbacks in the economy. Scientific
ment of both project and environmen- the sciences of complexity at Santa Fe American, February, 92-99.
tal complexity. The professional Institute in the latter part of the 20th Chin, R. and Benne, K. D. (1985).
competence of the project managers Century needs to take place in project General strategies for effecting change
must thus be the basis for the determi- management to develop the creative- in human systems. in Warren Bennis
nation of optimal approach to proj- reflective model of project manage- et. al. (eds.), (The Planning of Change,
ects, based on the extent of ment. This is the reason for the author New York: Holt, Rinehart, and
environmental and project complexity advocating international collaboration Winston, 1985. 528) 22-45.
and within a flexible framework. As and coalition of institutions to Fish, D. (1995). Quality learning
seen, in addition to the core emphasis advance project management body of for student teachers: university tutors’
on creative-reflective skills, leadership knowledge and mindsets to their next educational practices London, David
and socio-cultural competencies level of development. Fulton.
become critical, compared to planning Geyer, F. (1998). From simplicity
and control competencies emphasised Conclusions to complexity: adapting to the irre-
in the normative project management The author attempted to present a versibility of accelerating change.
literature and practice (Lester, 1994; study of change and its relationship to 14th World Congress of Sociology,
Robinson, 2000). rapid growth of complex society fol- Montreal, July 26 - August 1, 1998
Empirical research is needed to lowing the autocatalytic process as part WG01 Session 13 (see also:

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PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:40 AM Page 57

[Link] Kelly, E. (1997). The knowledge London and Beverly Hills: Sage.
ics/chen/[Link]). age: a ‘fad’ or a fundamental change? Manivong, K. (2000). Synthesis
Hofstede, G. (1991). Cultures and Strategic Futures Team, Scottish and Design of Smart Project
Organizations: Software of the mind. Enterprise. March 1997. At: Management Information Systems for
Maidenhead, Berkshire, UK: McGraw- h t t p : / / w w w. s c e n a r i o - p l a n n i n g . Life Cycle Project Management. PhD
Hill Book Co. com/[Link]. Thesis, University of Sydney, Australia.
Jaafari, A. (2001). Project manage- Kirshbaum, D. A. (1999). Prigogine, I. and Stengers, I.
ment and the third revolution: can we Emotional reactions to complexity, (1984). Order out of Chaos—Man’s new
deliver? PM-Research Conference confusion and chaos. Published at: Dialogue with Nature. London:
Proceedings. 21 – 22 November 2001, [Link] Heinemann.
Vienna, Austria. PM Group, Vienna [Link] April 2002 Robinson, M. S. (2000).
University of Economics and Business Kotkin, J. and Devol, R. Transformational leadership defined.
Administration, Vienna, Austria, 8. (2000). The Renewed City in the Digital Published at: [Link]
Jarvis. (1983) referred to in Lester, Age. Santa Monica, California: Milken [Link]/personalgrowth/new/1-
S. (1994). On professionalism and Institute. msr_transformational.html
professionality, published at: Lester, S. (1994). On professional- Schön, D. A. (1983). The reflective
[Link] ism and professionality. published at: practitioner: how professionals think in
[Link] [Link] action New York, Basic Books.
Kanter, R. M., Stein, B., and Jick, T. [Link]. Senge, P. (1990). The Fifth
D. (1992). The Challenge of London, S. (1996). Understanding Discipline: The Art and Practice of
Organizational Change: How Companies change: the dynamics of social transfor- the Learning Organization
Experience It, and Leaders Guide It. New mation. Published at: [Link] - 1st edition, 1994 - paperback
York: Free Press. [Link]/reports/[Link] edition, xxiii, 413
Kauffman, S. A. (1991). Antichaos Luhmann, N. (1978). Sorrell, K. L. (2001). Human
and Adaptation. Scientific American, Temporalization of complexity. in: capacity building strategy (19 March
August, 78-84. Sociocybernetics, 2 (R.F. Geyer and J. van 2001, ECOTECH INFO XCHANGE
Kauffman, S. A. (1992). The der Zouwen, eds.) pp. 95-111. The web site). The Cuba Group Ltd
Origins of Order: Self-Organization and Hague: Martinus Nijhoff. Tyson, P. (1998). (Opinion).
Selection in Evolution. Oxford: Oxford Luhmann, N. (1986). The Developmental theory and the
University Press. autopoiesis of social systems. in: postmodernist psychoanalyst. JAPA:
Kauffman, S. A. (1995). At Home Sociocybernetic Paradoxes— The Journal of the American
in the Universe—The Search for Laws of Observation, Control and Evolution of Psychoanalytic Association. Vol. 4
Complexity. Harmondsworth, UK : Self-steering Systems (R.F. Geyer and J. (10). [Link]
Penguin Books. van der Zouwen, eds.). pp. 172-192. [Link]

PROFESSOR JAAFARI is Chair Professor of Project Management at the University of Sydney and is a
recognised authority in project and programme management. He has been a speaker at numerous
World Congresses and International Conferences worldwide. He is the winner of many prizes and
awards (3 in 2001).

Professor Jaafari has wide expertise and professional experience. His most recent executive position
was in 1990-3 as Chief Manager, Project Management, with SMEC in Australia. He has, to-date,
authored over 130 publications in project, programme, operations and technology management,
including strategy-based project management, whole-of-life framework & philosophy, concurrency,
management of technology and innovations, information management systems, TQM, risk, opportu-
nity and uncertainty analysis & management and education of professionals. Since 1982 he has
conducted courses and seminars for over 3,000 executives, managers and professionals in
Australia, Asia and Europe. Professor Jaafari has held visiting professorial appointments at a num-
ber of universities, in the US, UK, Europe and Asia.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 57

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 58

COVER TO COVER
Book Review Editor, Kenneth H. Rose, PMP

DYNAMIC SCHEDULING WITH MICROSOFT, PROJECT 2002

BY ERIC UYTTEWAAL

ric Uyttewaal has done it the junior or intermediate project manager. Examples
E
again. The second edition of which include the differences between constraints
of his book on Microsoft‚ and dependencies, and critical path versus resource-
Project entitled, Dynamic critical path.
Scheduling with Microsoft‚ There is so much more than software training con-
Project 2002, is as impressive tained within these pages. Every project manager could
as the first. benefit from the techniques, suggestions, and tips pre-
This book differs from the sented within this publication, including: how to imple-
other MS Project user books ment time saving strategies mid-project such as RCP fast
and manuals in that it looks at tracking; how to handle the replacement of critical
the software as a tool. It fol- resources; strategies on how to defend/present a visible
lows established and proven project management best buffer, or contingency, within your schedule; and down-
practices indicating where this tool is useful. Reading a loadable exercise files, certified schedules, and filters.
reference manual/user guide from this perspective is very Aside from the general project management best
refreshing. It does not assume you will alter your practices, the book is also sound technically. New
processes for the sake of the software; rather, it identifies Microsoft‚ Project 2002 features, such as project guides,
where your (PMBOK‚ Guide) practices can benefit from and enhancements to the “Assign Resources” dialog, are
the functionality of MS Project 2002 to achieve cost presented in detail.
and/or time savings. Authored by a Project Management Professional,
Perhaps the most impressive part of this book is aligned with the PMBOK‚ Guide, easy enough to use by
Chapter 9, “Optimizing the Schedule.” Within this chap- a junior project manager—and yet this book is complex
ter, Uyttewaal discusses many techniques to have enough to teach even seasoned project managers and
Microsoft‚ Project assist the project manager in finding Microsoft‚ Project users alike. Eric Uyttewaal’s Dynamic
time and cost savings in the areas of resource assignment, Scheduling with Microsoft‚ Project 2002, is a “must
leveling, and utilization. Everyone knows that optimizing read”, “re-read,” and “use daily” for all project managers.
the project schedule can help to lower project costs or This should become a definite addition to your desktop
duration. In this chapter the author uses his vast experi- reference bookshelf.
ence to demonstrate several techniques to do so success-
fully. This is the key to this book’s appeal—the author J. Ross Publishing/IIL, 2003, ISBN: 1-932159-13-4,
uses practical experience to explain the software and pres- 704 pp., $54.95 Member, $59.95 Nonmember.
ents realistic examples to demonstrate its usefulness. The
material within this book can be applied to projects of
any size and within any industry. Reviewed by Corine Porter, Director of Marketing and
The book will appeal to the experienced project Business Development for CGI Information Systems &
manager, and also discusses many topics of benefit Management Consultants Inc., Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

58 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 59

PROJECT MANAGEMENT: A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PLANNING,

SCHEDULING, AND CONTROLLING. 8TH EDITION
BY HAROLD KERZNER

ith the eighth edition of Harold text, the workbook, and the book of cases are ideal as self-
W Kerzner’s Project Management: A study tools for the Project Management Institute’s
Systems Approach to Planning, Certification exam.” While the text contains substantial
Scheduling, and Controlling, we find that amounts of material that can provide readers with knowledge
this venerable work is showing its age. I that will serve them well when they take the Certification
happen to have the fifth edition (1995) exam, large portions of it are not compliant with PMI’s A
handy, so when I received a copy of the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge
eighth edition, I sat down and compared (PMBOK).
the content of the two editions. There is Since the Certification examination reflects the PMBOK
little difference between them. The prin- perspective, this is a serious shortcoming of Project
cipal difference is that the text has been reduced from just Management as a Certification exam study source. The book
under 1,200 pages to 900 pages. However, this cutback does never discusses the PMBOK’s five project management
not reflect a dramatic change in content or orientation. Rather, processes or nine knowledge areas, which form the logical
the author has removed many of the case studies contained in backbone of project management theory and practice as
earlier editions and placed them into yet another book titled promoted by PMI and which lie at the heart of the
Project Management Case Studies (Wiley, 2003). Certification exam.
The good news is that the book contains edifying inci- Furthermore, its use of terminology often does not corre-
dents-for-discussion and textual explanations of key project spond to PMBOK usage. For example, its treatment of risk
management concepts and tools. Unfortunately the book has management – which is well done – uses a different approach
gone from edition to edition since its introduction in 1979 as than what is employed in the PMBOK. While the book divides
a 500-page work, new material has been added with little of the risk management process into risk planning, risk assess-
the old material being altered or removed. Some topics that ment, risk handling, and risk monitoring, the PMBOK parti-
are covered extensively – such as the ones on force-field analy- tions it according to risk planning, risk identification,
sis and learning curves – reflect items of interest three decades qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk
ago, but whose relevance to current project management the- response planning, and risk monitoring and control. While
ory and practice is limited. Most the footnotes found through- the book identifies risk assumption, risk avoidance, risk con-
trol, and risk transfer as the principal risk handling techniques
out the eighth edition reference works published in the 1960s
available to risk management practitioners, the PMBOK iden-
and 1970s. Clearly, the book needs to be refreshed.
tifies risk acceptance, risk avoidance, risk mitigation, and risk
There are nonetheless good things in the book. Kerzner
transference as the core techniques.
knows his stuff and his insights are on target. For example, his
Consequently, students who use Project Management to
chapter titled “Working with Executives” deals with important
prepare for the risk management questions on the
issues that most writers ignore. Kerzner recognizes that without
Certification exam will find that many of the concepts and
support of project sponsors, projects in today’s chaotic world
terms they learned in this book do not map to concepts and
have trouble achieving their goals. The chapter provides practi-
terms covered on the exam. What holds true for risk manage-
cal insights to getting needed support.
ment holds with other knowledge areas as well.
Another example: Kerzner emphasizes that there is more There is not much that is truly new in the eighth edition.
to project success than delivering goods on time, within budg- One new chapter is titled “Modern Developments in Project
et and according to specifications. Success and failure are mul- Management.” It covers eight topics in 20 pages, including
tidimensional. Ultimately, they are closely tied to the extent to such items as project management maturity models and man-
which you meet customer expectations. aging multiple projects. While this chapter addresses some
Perhaps the most serious instance of outdated material is interesting new developments, the treatment of each topic is
found in the chapter dedicated to network scheduling. very cursory. Another chapter dealing with a new topic is titled
Network diagramming is presented as an arrow diagram tech- “Critical Chain Project Management” which is written by
nique. However, with the advent of PC-based scheduling soft- Gerald Kendall. It does a good job describing this relatively
ware in the early 1980s, the arrow diagram technique faded new perspective on project scheduling.
into the background. None of the current generation of proj-
ect management scheduling software employs arrow dia- John Wiley & Sons, 2003, ISBN: 0-471-22577-0, hardcov-
grams. Rather, the software employs the precedence diagram er, 911 pp., $76.00 Member, $80.00 Nonmember.
method (PDM), which uses boxes and lines in lieu of arrows.
In Project Management, only a few pages are added at the end Reviewed by J. Davidson Frame, PhD, PMP, Academic Dean,
of the network diagramming chapter that discuss PDM. The University of Management and Technology, Arlington,
Also of concern is the assertion Kerzner makes that: “This Virginia, USA

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 59

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:42 AM Page 60

PROACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTROLLING UNCERTAINTITY

IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 2003 David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award

BY PRESTON G. SMITH AND GUY M. MERRITT

roactive Risk Management: Controlling Whatever the basis, fighting fires is neither desirable nor
P Uncertainty in Product Development
by Preston G. Smith and Guy M. Merritt
particularly successful.
Chapter 3 presents the proactive risk management
may be simply the best book on risk man- model in summary. It serves as an introduction for those
agement available today. It is certainly the who will study further and as an executive overview for
best book written on the subject during top managers who just want the bottom line. The model
2002—or any other project management comprises a five-step process that includes: identifying
subject for that matter—winning the covet- risks; analyzing risks to determine drivers, impacts, and
ed David I. Cleland Project Management probabilities; prioritizing and mapping risks; planning
Literature Award from the Project actions to take; and monitoring progress and identifying
Management Institute for 2003. emerging risks.
Risk management can be a scary subject. In many circles Smith and Merritt address each of the five processes in
it has a reputation as being an intimidating collection of detail in separate chapters. They provide useful, how-to guid-
mathematical techniques and formulas inaccessible to the ance that includes hints as to where the hurdles might be in
uninitiated members of project teams. Consequently, it is application. All is presented in a conversational tone that facili-
often avoided or touched only lightly in ways that fail to tates understanding and learning. Each chapter closes with a
exploit its many benefits. summary that reviews and reinforces key points and a brief list
Smith and Merritt have developed and defined a practical of supplemental reading resources.
approach to risk management that is focused on new product But the model, powerful as it may be, does not stand alone.
development but extensible to any project environment. Their The authors also describe five tools that support the model and
primary purpose is to enable product development teams to the overall risk management effort. Some are very traditional,
identify surprises early in the project and manage them such as spreadsheets and decision analysis. Others are more
throughout to diminish the disruption they cause. But identi- innovative, such as “sticky density,” a highly visual and interac-
fying surprises and diminishing disruption is not a matter of tive approach to pinpointing risky areas in a process, project, or
interest solely to product development teams. Any manager of organization. A series of suggested strategies complements the
any project will find a useful framework in the model suggest- tools and model to improve risk management effectiveness.
ed by the authors. Some seem obvious: “Avoid risk when it does not add value.”
Proactive Risk Management is unique among similar Others require a little thought: “Apportion risk carefully,” and
texts in its practical, easy-to-use, fact-based approach to “Use failure to your advantage.”
managing all of the risks associated with a project. How- Last, the authors offer guidance on identifying and over-
to information and techniques at the depth it offers are coming organizational impediments. Effective risk management
not available elsewhere. The authors’ approach provides does not “just happen.” An effective approach often requires
a risk model that is scalable to any size project, methods changes to established ways. Success depends on a broad view
for identifying causes of risks, and a method for priori- and sensitivity to organization dynamics. The key is to build risk
tizing risks without introducing errors. management into the project as an integral element of all phas-
Beyond its practicality, the book’s salient characteris- es so that it rises to the importance level of cost and schedule.
tic is its readability. It is user-friendly in the extreme, Proactive Risk Management is a new entry to project man-
characterized by simple, direct language and facilitating agement literature that should not be missed. For experienced
icons that graphically indicate key ideas, cautionary project managers, it may provide a codification of practices that
notes, examples, and supplementary information. they have been applying all along. For those newer to the disci-
In the opening chapters, the authors make a clear dis- pline, it will provide a solid grounding in a process that is essen-
tinction between risks (uncertain events) and issues (cer- tial to successful project implementation. For all, it provides a
tain events). It is important to recognize the difference straightforward, easy-to-understand method for managing risks
because the two are managed in different ways. They also in the real project world.
make their case for proactive risk management, pointing
out that the process begins early in the project and con- Productivity Press, 2002, ISBN: 1-56372-265-2, paperback, 226
tinues throughout implementation as monitoring and pp., $31.30 Member, $32.95 Nonmember.
follow-up. They describe "firefighting" as an all-to-com-
mon alternative practiced by those who fail to prevent Reviewed by Kenneth H. Rose, PMP, Director, Peninsula Center for
"fires" by disciplined risk management techniques, or Project Management in Hampton, VA, USA and vice president for
worse, see crisis as an opportunity to be a corporate hero. programs, PMI Hampton Roads Chapter.

60 • Project Management Journal December 2003

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 61

TEAM DEVELOPMENT FOR HIGH-TECH PROJECT MANAGERS

BY JAMES WILLIAMS

ooks about teams seem to coa- sors. The author offers several tips for effective negotia-
B lesce around two poles: one tion and describes several “hardball” tactics to avoid or
recognize when encountered. He emphasizes preparation
related to theory and another
related to step-by-step practices. as the key to success and defines criteria for determining
James Williams bridges the two success in any negotiation. He also points out that proj-
with Team Development for High- ect managers must have strong listening skills to be effec-
Tech Project Managers, a practical, tive negotiators, including both attentive and interactive
no-frills approach to teams in a skills.
project context. The obligatory chapter on conflict resolution is brief
Williams does not offer a cookbook of prescribed but complete. Williams describes conditions that lead to
procedures, but rather experienced-based, insightful or contribute to conflict and methods for dealing with
information that will stimulate readers’ thinking and conflict—the classic five of smoothing, withdrawal, com-
help them view project management and team building promising, forcing, and problem solving. He comple-
in new ways—ways that will meet the new challenges of ments these with five personal styles ranging from
today’s project environment. win-lose to integration (win-win). He follows with a dis-
The book is divided into three parts. The first four cussion of project-specific sources of conflict and bases of
chapters establish a foundation of both project and team power that gives readers a comprehensive view that will
basics. Readers will welcome familiar language and struc- serve them well in any project team.
ture that arises from PMI’s PMBOK‚ Guide—2000 The issue of power is addressed in two chapters, one
Edition. They will also notice that the familiar team dealing with building a project power base and one deal-
development stages of forming, storming, norming, and ing with empowering others. Power and influence are
performing appear as birth, exploration, discovery, and essential—and perhaps often misunderstood—ingredi-
performance, with “completion” appended as a necessary ents for a successful project manager. Williams shows a
closure stage. Williams is not trying to coin new termi- positive approach that avoids the unsavory connotations
nology. He explains that his terms get more to the heart of “power” in the past. The strength of a team lies in
of what really occurs in the various stages and makes this empowerment that enables and releases the full creativi-
clear in his discussion of each. ty of the team members. Williams suggests nine tech-
The core and central strength of this book lie in the niques that readers can apply on the job.
seven chapters that address key topics that pertain to The book closes with a sort of catch-all section that
team leaders and team participants that must work includes chapters on problem solving, time manage-
through project processes. The author begins with com- ment, auditing, and future directions, Important topics
munication systems, both formal and informal, internal all, but wisely placed here to avoid breaking the chain of
and external. He boils it all down to a simple goal of thought that links together the elements of the previous
“…saying (or relaying) the right information at the right section.
time to the right people in the right manner.” Readers have many choices when seeking books on
Williams’ discussion of motivation may seem brief. teams and team building. Team Development for High-
Readers should keep in mind that Williams’ intent is not Tech Project Managers should be considered first. It is
encyclopedic coverage of complex issues. He covers the concise and complete, and focused on project needs—
essential points and provides references for those exactly what busy project managers are looking for.
inclined to further reading.
A welcome inclusion is the discussion of teams and Artech House, 2002, ISBN: 1580531342, hardcover, 213
quality. This central issue often gets short shrift in team pp., $56.05 Member, $59.00 Nonmember.
texts. Williams’ focus on customers, teamwork, metrics,
and continuous improvement reminds readers that teams
implement projects to satisfy a customer, not just to meet Reviewed by Kenneth H. Rose, PMP, Director, Peninsula
a planned schedule or budget. Center for Project Management in Hampton, VA, USA, and
Negotiation is a critical activity within project teams vice president for programs, PMI Hampton Roads Chapter
and between project teams and their customers or spon-

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 61

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Guidelines for PMJ Book Reviews

Selecting Books for Review
PMJ welcomes recommendations from project managers and others regarding books that may be of
professional value to fellow PMI associates. Areas of potential interest include: new ideas about the
theory, concepts, and techniques of project management; new approaches to technology and man-
agement; getting business results; competing in today’s complex workplace; and global changes.
Recommendations should include the title, author, and publisher, and a brief statement as to why the
book should be considered for review. PMJ will select books for review and identify a reviewer.
Individuals recommending books for review may also volunteer to write the review. However, individu-
als should not submit a review before PMJ has selected the book. PMJ receives many books from pub-
lishers and authors and cannot review them all.

Guidelines for Writers

Reviews should begin with a strong, brief opening paragraph that identifies the book and author, and tells
the reader why the book is important. The review should not only describe the content of the book, but also
what the content means; that is, why it is a contribution to the project management body of knowledge.
Reviewers may include the following elements:
■ A summary of key or unique concepts
■ Favorite quote, graphic, chart, etc.
■ Important tips or guidelines
■ New terms or phrases, such as “knowbots” or “teamocracy”
■ Message from the book that should be remembered for future use, or should have been disclosed
years ago.

Reviews should include the book’s strong points and any weak points if this information will be useful
to the reader. Reviews should be written in a conversational style that maintains academic rigor.
Reviewers should avoid use of the first person (”I”) and focus on the book and its contents. Reviewers
should also avoid use of extensive lists as a means of describing or duplicating content. Instead, focus
on what the content means to readers. Reviews should be no longer than 750 words in length (please
use your computer word count to verify length of the review).

Reviews should include complete publishing information, if possible: title, author(s), publisher (city and
state), year published, ISBN number, total pages, and price in U.S. dollars. PMJ will add any information that
is not available to reviewers.

Reviews should be prepared using MS Word and may be submitted by email (preferred) or on disk.
Submissions should include the name, title, company, address, phone/fax/e-mail, and brief (one or two
sentence) biosketch of the reviewer. Reviews should be submitted to:

Book Review Editor

PMI Publications
[Link]@[Link]

PMI reserves the right to edit all material submitted for publication.

62 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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Notes for Authors

SCOPE SHORT ITEMS and save text in their original applications

The Project Management Journal is the profession- Short items do not need rigorous academic and/or Rich Text Format (RTF). It is essential that
al journal of the Project Management Institute. scrutiny and are not refereed. Upon receipt, how- the name and version of the word processing
The mission of PMJ is to advance the state of the ever, these items become the copyright property program and format of the text files are clearly
art of the knowledge of project and program of PMI. indicated (example: Word for Windows 95 doc).
management. PMJ presents useful information ■ Opinion presents thoughtful discussion of The electronic version on disk should only be
on both theory and practice in the field of proj- project management issues. sent with the final accepted version of the paper
ect management. Authors are encouraged to sub- ■ Correspondence pertains to the project and to the Editor. NOTE: The hard copy and elec-
mit the following types of original manuscripts: program management profession, including ref- tronic files must match exactly.
descriptions of innovative practices; summaries erences to literature, practice, and scholarship as Upon acceptance of the manuscript for
of research results; reviews of current literature; well as discussion and replies related to articles publishing, authors will also be asked to provide
surveys of current practices; critical analyses of published in PMJ. illustrations in computer format. Preferred for-
concepts, theories, or practices; developments of ■ Book Reviews express opinions about books mats are CorelDraw, MacroMedia Freehand,
concepts, theories, or practices; analyses of fail- related to the project management profession, or Freelance Graphics, PowerPoint, Harvard
ure. Manuscript length should not exceed about general management or technical books Graphics, Harvard Chart, or Canvas. If one of
12,000 words. The selection of manuscripts for that cover topics of particular value to the project these formats is unavailable, submit in Windows
publication is based on the extent to which they manager. Metafile (WMF), Adobe Illustrator (AI or EPS) or
advance the knowledge and understanding of ■ Calendar of Events offers notices of forth- Encapsulated PostScript (EPS). Please use
project management. PMI neither approves nor coming meetings and calls for papers. default/standard extensions. If illustrations are
disapproves of any data, claims, opinions, or available in paper form only, they will be recre-
conclusions presented. SUBMISSIONS ated electronically for publication. Contact PMI
All manuscripts must be submitted electronical- Publishing Department for further details.
MANUSCRIPT REVIEW ly either by email to [Link]@[Link]
PMJ uses a double-blind review process. The first or on diskette sent to: Project Management STYLE OF TEXT
review of every manuscript is performed by two Journal, Attn: Natasha Pollard, 4 Campus Blvd., You should write in clear and concise English.
anonymous referees (usually members of the Newtown Square, PA 19073 USA. If you submit Spelling should follow Webster’s New World
PMJ Editorial Review Board). The manuscript is your manuscript on diskette, please include a Dictionary. Authors whose native tongue is not
then either accepted, rejected, or returned to the printout of the manuscript, including all tables English are assured that in-house editorial atten-
author for revision (with reviewer comments and figures, on 8-1/2 x 11 inch paper, double tion to their manuscript will improve clarity and
furnished to the author). Revised manuscripts spaced throughout, and printed on one side acceptability to readers. For questions regarding
are sent to the Editor, who makes a final dis- only. Manuscripts should include the following style and format of text, refer to the Publication
position in consultation with the Publisher. in the order listed: Manual of the American Psychological Association,
PMJ strives to respond to all authors within ■ A title page that includes the title of the Fifth Edition.
three months of the date the manuscript is manuscript and each author’s name, affiliation,
received at the PMI Publishing Department. mailing address, and phone, fax, and e-mail REFERENCES
Accepted manuscripts are subject to editorial address. Correspondence will be directed only to For questions regarding reference format, refer
changes. The author is solely responsible for the first author listed. to the Publication Manual of the American
all statements made in the manuscript, ■ An abstract of 100 words or less that out- Psychological Association, Fifth Edition,
including editorial changes. lines the purpose, scope and conclusions of the Bibliographic Forms for Journal Articles.
manuscript, and selected keywords. References used in the text should be identified
ORIGINAL PUBLICATION ■ Text (use headings and no more than two by author name and publication date in paren-
It is the policy of PMI to be the sole, original levels of subheadings). To permit objective theses, e.g., (Cleland & King, 1983), and listed
publisher of manuscripts. Manuscripts that have reviews by two referees, the abstract and first alphabetically at the end of the manuscript.
been submitted simultaneously to other maga- page of the text should not reveal the authors Page numbers should be cited for all quota-
zines or journals will be rejected outright and and/or affiliations, but only the manuscript title. tions. Follow the format example shown below:
will not be reconsidered. Republication of a ■ References. Baker, Bud. (1993). The project
manuscript, possibly revised, that has been dis- ■ Illustrations and Tables (titled, numbered manager and the media: Some les-
seminated via conference proceedings or in Arabic, with captions, each on a separate sons from the stealth bomber pro-
newsletter is permitted if the Editor judges there sheet, preferred location indicated within the gram. Project Management Journal, 24
are significant benefits to be gained from publi- body of the text). (3), 11–14.
cation. ■ Biographical details of each author. Cleland, David I., & King,
Upon manuscript acceptance, authors must also William R. (1983). Systems analysis
COPYRIGHT provide a black-and-white passport-style photo- and project management. New York:
Upon acceptance of a manuscript, authors will graph and a signed copyright agreement. McGraw-Hill.
be asked to transfer copyright of the article to the Hartley, John R. (1992).
publisher. This transfer will ensure the widest COMPUTER-GENERATED Concurrent engineering. Cambridge,
possible dissemination of information. This TEXT AND ILLUSTRATIONS MA: Productivity Press.
transfer of copyright enables PMI to protect the Authors are requested to submit the final text Please ensure that references are complete, that
copyrighted material for the authors, but does and illustrations via email or on a 3.5” they include, where relevant, author’s name,
not relinquish the author’s proprietary rights. IBM/compatible disks. As with the requirements article or book title, volume and issue number,
The copyright transfer gives PMI the exclusive for manuscript submission, the main text, list of publisher, date and page reference.
rights to republish or reprint the manuscript in references, table and illustration captions, and The use of page footnotes should be kept
any form or medium as well as to grant or refuse author biographies should be stored in separate to a minimum. Footnotes should be numbered
permission to third parties to republish all or text files with clearly identifiable file names. consecutively and listed at the end of the text
parts of the manuscript. Keep the layout of the text as simple as possible as endnotes.

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 63

PMI-002 11/5 11/6/03 9:20 AM Page 64

KEYWORDS
Keywords categorize your manuscript. They cover project management methodologies and processes, tools and techniques, PMBOK® Guide
knowledge areas, industries, types of projects, geography. Please list three or four keywords that best categorize your manuscript. Choose
from the following list of suggested keywords (this is not a comprehensive list) or you may use your own.

Accounting Deliverables Milestones Responsibility

Activity Duration Estimating Design Mitigation Risk Management
Agriculture Documentation Monte Carlo Analysis Risk Response Development
Arrow Diagramming Method Earned Value Multiproject Planning Schedule Development
Baselines Engineering Negotiating Schedule Control
Benchmarking Environment Networking Scope Management
Benefit/Cost Analysis Estimating New Product Development Scope Definition
Budgeting Fast-Tracking Organizational Planning Scope Change Control
Change Control Feedback Organizational Structure Simulation
Communications Management Finance Parametric Modeling Staff Acquisition
Concurrent Engineering Float Performance Reporting Stakeholders
Configuration Management Funding Pharmaceuticals Standards
Conflict Resolution Human Resource Management Procurement Management Statistical Sampling
Constraints Information Systems Productivity Team Development
Construction Integration Management Project Life Cycle Time Management
Contingency Planning Large Project Project Management Software Tools
Contract Closeout Leadership Project Plan Development Training
Cost Estimating Life-cycle Costing Quality Assurance Transportation Variance
Cost Management Manufacturing Quality Management Utilities
Critical Path Management Skills Reengineering Virtual Organization
Delegation Matrix Organization Resource Planning Work Breakdown Structure
Work Packages

CHECKLIST PROOFS COPIES AND REPRINTS

■ Manuscript via email or on diskette Correspondence and proofs for correction will Authors will receive 10 copies of the journal
■ 100-word abstract be sent to the first-named author unless free of charge. Additional copies of the journal
■ Illustrations otherwise indicated. Copyediting of and/or article reprints can be ordered at any
■ Author biographies manuscripts is performed by PMI staff. The time from the PMI.
■ Black and white author photographs authors are asked to check proofs for
(upon acceptance) typographical errors and to answer queries Project Management Institute
■ Signed copyright agreement from editors. To improve publication times it Publishing Department
(upon acceptance) is important that proofs be returned within 4 Campus Blvd.
three days. Authors may be charged for Newtown Square, PA 19073 USA
extensive corrections in the proof stage. Tel: 610/356-4600 ext. 1135
Fax: 610/355-1633
E-mail: [Link]@[Link]

Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation

1. Publication Title: Project Management Journal 8. Complete Mailing Address of Headquarters or General 11. Known Bondholders, Mortgagees, and Other Security
2. Publication Number: 8756-9728 Business office of the Publisher: Project Management Holders Owning or Holding 1 Percent or More of
3. Filing date: 12/01/03 Institute, Four Campus Boulevard, Newtown Square, Total Amount of Bonds, Mortgages, or Other
4. Issue Frequency: Quarterly Pennsylvania 19073-3299 USA Securities: None
5. Number of Issues Published Annually: 4 9. Full Names and Complete Mailing Addresses of 12. For completion by nonprofit organizations authorized
6. Annual Subscription Price: $14.00 Publisher: Gary Boyler, Four Campus Boulevard Four to mail at special rates. The purpose, function, and
7. Complete Mailing Address of Known Office of Campus Boulevard, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania nonprofit status of this organization and the exempt
Publication: PMI Publishing Division, 19073-3299 USA status for federal income tax purposes: Has Not
Four Campus Boulevard, Newtown Square, 10. Owner: Project Management Institute, Four Campus Changed During Preceding 12 Months
Pennsylvania 19073-3299 USA Boulevard, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania 19073-3299 USA 13. Publication Name: Project Management Journal
14. Issue Date for Circulation Data Below: November 2003

15. Extent and Nature of Circulation

Average No. Copies Each Issue Actual No. Copies Single Issue
During Preceding 12 Months Published Nearest to Filing Date
a. Total No. Copies (Net Press Run) 108,987 119,812
b. Paid and/or Requested Circulation
(1) Sales Through Dealers and Carriers, Street Vendors, and Counter Sales (Not Mailed) Does Not Apply Does Not Apply
(2) Paid or Requested Mail Subscriptions (Include Advertisers’ Proof Copies/Exchange Copies)
107,887 118,712
c. Total Paid and/or Requested Circulation (Sum of 15b(1) and 15b(2)
107,887 118,712
d. Free Distribution by Mail (Samples, Complementary, and Other Free) Does Not Apply
e. Free Distribution Outside the Mail (Carriers or Other Means) Does Not Apply
f. Total Free Distribution (Sum of 15d and 15e) Does Not Apply
g. Total Distribution (Sum of 15d and 15f) 107,887 118,712
h. Copies Not Distributed
(1) Office Use, Leftovers, Spoiled 1,100 1,100
(2) Return from News Agents Does Not Apply
i. Total (Sum of 15g, 15h(1), and 15(2)) 108,987 119,812
Percent Paid and/or Requested Circulation (15c / 15g x 100) 98.7% 98.9%
16. This Statement of Ownership will be printed in the December 2003 issue of this publication.
17. Name and Title of Editor, Publisher, Business Manager, or Owner: Gary Boyler,
Date: 12/01/03

64 • Project Management Journal December 2003

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INDEX OF 2003

PROJECT MANAGEMENT
JOURNAL PAPERS AND AUTHORS
1. A Critical Look at Critical Chain Project Peter E.D. Love, Zahir Irani, and David J. Edwards.
Management. Tzvi Raz, Robert Barnes, and Dov Dvir. September, 13-25.
December, 24-32. 13. Management of Global Large-Scale Projects
2. Applying the Slevin-Pinto Project Implementation Through a Federation of Multiple Market-Based
Profile to an Information Systems Project. Peter Finch. Workflow Management Systems. Yuosre F. Badir, Remi
September, 32-39. Founou, Claude Stricker, and Vincent Bourquin.
3. Applying Utility Theory to Risk Management. September, 40-47.
Crispin Piney. September, 26-31. 14. Project Management in the Age of Complexity and
4. Beyond the Body of Knowledge: A Knowledge- Change. Ali Jaafari. December, 47-57.
Flow Approach to Project Management Theory and 15. Project Management Learning: What the Literature
Practice. Keith F. Snider and Mark E. Nissen. June, 4-12. has to say. Debbie Tesch, Timothy J. Kloppenborg, and John
5. Cost Estimation Overruns in the North Sea. K. Stemmer. December, 33-39.
Magne Emhjellen, Kjetil Emhjellen, and Petter 16. Project Management Maturity:An Industry-Wide
Osmundsen. March, 23-29. Assessment. James S. Pennypacker and Kevin P. Grant.
6. Earned Value Project Management Method and March, 4-11.
Extensions. Frank T. Anbari. December, 12-23. 17. Schedule and Cost Buffer Sizing: How to Account for
7. Effectiveness of Alliances Between Operating the Bias Between Project Performance and Your Model.
Companies and Engineering Companies. He Zhang and Larry Leach. June, 34-47.
Peter Flynn. September, 48-52. 18. Strategic Planning for a Project Office. Harold
8. Effective Project Management for Strategic Kerzner. June, 13-25.
Innovation and Change in an Organizational Context. 19. Surveying Practicing Project Managers on
John Kenny. March, 43-53. Curricular Aspects of Project Management Programs: A
9. Evaluation and Selection of Consultants for Resource-Based Approach. Alan D. Smith. June, 26-33.
Design-Build Projects. Yean Yng Ling, George Ofori, and 20. The Application of Project Scheduling Techniques in
Sui Pheng Low. March, 12-22. a Real-life Environment. Mario Vanhoucke and Erik
10. JWARS: A Case Study. Jim Metzger. December, 40-46. Demeulemeester. March, 30-42.
11. Learning Generators: Project Teams Re-conceptu- 21. The Role of Induction and Training in Team
alized. Andrew J. Sense. September, 4-12. Effectiveness. Steven Atkins and Guinevere Gilbert. June, 48-52.
12. Learning to reduce rework in projects: Analysis 22. Understanding Your Project Organization’s
of firms’ organizational learning and quality practices Character. Erling S. Andersen. December, 4-11.

Authors Founou, Remi (13) Ofori, George (9)

Anbari, Frank T. (6) Gilbert, Guinevere (21) Osmundsen, Petter (5)
Andersen, Erling S. (22) Grant, Kevin P. (16) Pennypacker, James S. (16)
Atkins,Steven (21) Irani, Zahir (12) Piney, Crispin (3)
Badir,Yuosre F. (13) Jaafari, Ali (14) Raz, Tzvi (1)
Barnes, Robert (1) Kenny, John March (8) Sense, Andrew J. (11)
Bourquin, Vincent (13) Kerzner, Harold (18) Smith, Alan D. (19)
Demeulemeester, Erik (20) Kloppenborg, Timothy J. (15) Snider, Keith F. (4)
Dvir, Dov (1) Leach, Larry (17) Stemmer, John K. (15)
Edwards, David J. (12) Ling, Yean Yng (9) Stricker, Claude (13)
Emhjellen, Kjetil (5) Love, Peter E.D. (12) Tesch, Debbie (15)
Emhjellen, Magne (5) Low, Sui Pheng (9) Vanhoucke, Mario (20)
Finch, Peter (2) Metzger, Jim (10) Zhang, He (7)
Flynn, Peter (7) Nissen, Mark E. (4)

December 2003 Project Management Journal • 65