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NPV Analysis for Project S1 Evaluation

1. The document calculates the net present value (NPV) of project S1 as $200578 by discounting after-tax cash flows at a 10% discount rate. 2. It is recommended that company UMC not launch project S1, even though it has a positive NPV, because it would result in $120000 in lost annual sales from existing product M1. 3. When calculating the total profit of launching both S1 and retaining M1 using the annual worth method, the NPV is negative -$356576, so the combined projects would reduce total company profit. Therefore, UMC should not launch project S1.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
102 views4 pages

NPV Analysis for Project S1 Evaluation

1. The document calculates the net present value (NPV) of project S1 as $200578 by discounting after-tax cash flows at a 10% discount rate. 2. It is recommended that company UMC not launch project S1, even though it has a positive NPV, because it would result in $120000 in lost annual sales from existing product M1. 3. When calculating the total profit of launching both S1 and retaining M1 using the annual worth method, the NPV is negative -$356576, so the combined projects would reduce total company profit. Therefore, UMC should not launch project S1.

Uploaded by

KA LOK CHAN
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

IELM 7016 Second In-Course Assessment

Student Name: ChenShijie 3035630232

Zhang Gangying 3035668356

Du Yiwen 3035715472

Guo Sa 3035676303

PartⅠ
① Project NPV:
1. As the $100,000 consulting cost is a sunk cost, it does not give rise to difference
cash flows.
2. Since the operation of S1 project has nothing to do with M1, the potential loss in
sales of M1 also does not give rise to difference cash flows. In other words, the
potential loss in sales of M1 will not affect the NPV of the S1 project. However, it
may affect the company’s decision making when taking the total profit of the
company into consideration.
3. Since the after-tax required rate of return is nominal, we choose the nominal method
to calculate. As shown in the table below, real-dollar cash flows are converted into
nominal-dollar cash flows.
(1) Cash inflows

Sales revenue

Real cash inflow Inflation Nominal cash inflow


Year
$ adjustment $

1 2520000 (1+5%)^1 2646000

(1+5%)^2
2 2310000 2546775

(1+5%)^3
3 1680000 1944810

(1+5%)^4
4 1260000 1531538

(1+5%)^5
5 840000 1072077

This study source was downloaded by 100000829714924 from [Link] on 01-05-2022 [Link] GMT -06:00

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6 420000 (1+5%)^6 562840

Note: Real sales revenue=units sold each year×$42


Nominal cash inflow=real cash inflow×(1+inflation rate)^year

(2) Cash outflows

Raw material Labor


Total
Nominal Selling and
Real cash Real cash Nominal nominal
Inflation cash Inflation
Year outflow outflow cash outflow administration
adjustment outflow adjustment cash outflow
$ $ $
$

1 900000 (1+6%)^1 954000 360000 (1+5%)^1 378000 20000 1352000

2 825000 (1+6%)^2 926970 330000 (1+5%)^2 363825 20000 1310795

3 600000 (1+6%)^3 714610 240000 (1+5%)^3 277830 20000 1012440

4 450000 (1+6%)^4 568115 180000 (1+5%)^4 218791 20000 806906

5 300000 (1+6%)^5 401468 120000 (1+5%)^5 153154 20000 574621

6 150000 (1+6%)^6 212778 60000 (1+5%)^6 80406 20000 313184

Note: Real raw material cost=units sold each year×$15


Real labor cost=units sold each year×$6

Nominal cash outflow=real cash outflow×(1+inflation rate)^year

4. The question specifies that tax allowable depreciation should be ignored. This
means no depreciation can be treated as a tax deductible expense. Hence, the
allowable depreciation is 0. Assume IRR of the project is 10%. The table below
shows the calculations of the after-tax profit and NPV of the S1 project.

Nominal profit Profit after taxation PV


Year Discount factor @ 10%
$ $ $
1 1294000 905800 0.909 823463

2 1235980 865186 0.826 714990

3 932370 652659 0.751 490343

4 724632 507242 0.683 346447

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5 497455 348219 0.621 216209

6 249657 174760 0.565 98652


Initial working capital
-400000
investment
Machine investment -2400000

Salvage value of machine 84675

Working capital release 225800

Project NPV 200578

Note: Nominal profit=Total nominal cash inflow-total nominal cash outflow


Profit after taxation=nominal profit×(1-30%) since tax is paid in the same
year
PV=profit after taxation×discount factor
Project NPV=$823463+$714990+$490343+$346447+$216209+$98652-
$400000-$2400000+$84675+$225800=$200578

Therefore, the NPV of the S1 project is $200578.

② Recommendation

1. Through the NPV of the S1 project>0, we cannot come to the conclusion that UMC

should launch the project because it will result in the sales loss of M1. Therefore,
total profit of the company needs to be calculated when making the decision.
2. Since the IRR of M1 is not given, we assumes that it is the same as that of S1(10%).
Then we use the annual worth method.
AW of S1+M1=$200578(A/P, 10%, 6) - $120000= $200578×0.22961-$120000=

-$356576<0

Therefore, we recommend to UMC that the company should not launch the S1 project
since it will lead to the loss of the company’s total profit.

This study source was downloaded by 100000829714924 from [Link] on 01-05-2022 [Link] GMT -06:00

[Link]
In conclusion, the NPV of the S1 project is $200578, but the company should not launch
it.

Part II
Solution:
If initial investment of Project X is larger than project Y, let difference project be
Project X-Project Y.

Then calculate difference project’s IRR

When MARR>=difference project’s IRR, Project Y’s NPY will be larger than project
X’s NPV.

Otherwise, when initial investment of Project X is lower than project Y, let difference
project be Project Y-Project X.

Then calculate difference project’s IRR

When MARR<= difference project’s, Project Y’s NPY will be larger than project X’s
NPV.

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Common questions

Powered by AI

The internal rate of return (IRR) is used in evaluating projects as a measure of the expected profitability of an investment, representing the discount rate at which the net present value (NPV) of cash flows equals zero. It assists in comparing the profitability of various investments by providing a single rate of return. In the decision between projects S1 and M1, IRR was assumed to be the same for both projects (10%), and this assumption was utilized in the annual worth calculation to determine the outcome of combining those projects, leading to the recommendation not to proceed with the S1 project due to overall negative impact .

The implications of losing potential sales in an existing project when considering a new investment include reduced overall profitability, potential harm to existing market positions, and undesirable financial outcomes. For UMC, the possible sales loss from the M1 project greatly impacted the decision regarding the S1 project. Even though S1 had a positive NPV, the resultant negative impact on M1's sales and, consequently, the company's total profit led to the recommendation against pursuing S1 to protect the overall financial interests of the company .

The key factors to consider when evaluating the NPV of a project include cash inflows, cash outflows, discount rates, the impact of inflation, taxation effects, and potential interactions with other existing projects. While a positive NPV indicates the project may add value, it is crucial not to rely solely on it because it doesn't account for potential negative impacts on other parts of the business, such as loss of sales from existing projects. In the case of the S1 project, the NPV was positive, but when considering the sales loss of M1, it was advised not to launch the S1 project because it would reduce the company's total profit .

Assuming the IRR of a project assists in simplifying financial calculations by providing a consistent rate to evaluate project feasibility without needing exact IRR data, which may be unavailable. This assumption enables analysts to perform comparative analyses, such as evaluating alternative rates of return, to assess potential profitability or total investment worth. In the context of UMC, the assumption that the IRR of M1 was the same as S1's (10%) facilitated the use of the annual worth method to decide the project's financial viability, simplifying decision-making processes .

Considering total company profit over project-specific metrics when making investment decisions is significant because it provides a holistic view of the company's financial health. It ensures that new projects do not adversely impact existing operations or lead to overall lower profits. For instance, though the S1 project had a positive NPV, its implementation would lead to a sales loss in the M1 project. Therefore, evaluating total profit is crucial to avoid decisions that may superficially seem beneficial but ultimately harm the company's overall financial position .

A company might choose not to launch a project with a positive NPV if the project negatively impacts other aspects of the business, such as causing a loss in sales for existing products, which outweighs the project's gains. Additional factors to consider include strategic alignment with company goals, risks associated with new ventures, potential effects on brand reputation, market conditions, and the impact on overall company profitability. In the case of the S1 project, the decision not to proceed was based on the total company's profit outcome rather than the standalone positive NPV, exemplifying the importance of a holistic perspective in corporate strategy .

Methodological considerations when calculating difference projects' IRR include determining the initial investments of both projects, deciding which project to subtract from the other based on investment size, and calculating the IRR of the 'difference project.' This involves adjusting for any potential synergies or conflicts between projects X and Y. UMC's analysis indicated calculating the IRR of the difference when comparing two projects to evaluate their relative profitability and determine which offers a greater value depending on whether the minimum acceptable rate of return (MARR) is above or below this difference IRR .

The rationale for using nominal rather than real dollar cash flows in project evaluation is primarily due to the impact of inflation. When the after-tax required rate of return is nominal, converting real dollar cash flows into nominal dollars ensures that the cash flows are directly comparable to the nominal discount rate, thereby accurately reflecting the inflation effect in the evaluation. This method maintains consistency and provides a more realistic assessment of the project's value over time. In the S1 project, both cash inflows and outflows were adjusted for inflation to arrive at nominal values, which were then used for accurate NPV calculation .

Ignoring tax allowable depreciation affects the calculation of a project's profitability by not allowing it to be treated as a tax-deductible expense, effectively inflating the taxable income and subsequently the taxes paid. This results in a lower after-tax cash flow than if depreciation were considered, thus potentially reducing the project's overall profitability and altering NPV calculations. In the S1 project, depreciation was ignored, simplifying the analysis but potentially overlooking tax savings that could enhance profitability .

The annual worth (AW) method aids in deciding between multiple investment projects by converting NPVs into equivalent annual values, making it easier to compare projects of different scales and timeframes based on their uniform annual impact. It might be preferred over NPV alone because it provides a clear picture of annual profitability, which is intuitive and aligns with annual financial planning and budgeting. In the case discussed, AW was used to determine that despite the S1 project’s positive NPV, it led to a total negative AW when combined with the M1 project, guiding the decision not to proceed with S1 .

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