Water Demand
This Chapter describes the method of determining the water volumes needed by a new small water utility project to supply the
population it intends to cover.
A. GENERAL
The first step in designing a Level II or small Level III water system is to determine how much water is needed by the population
to be covered. The water to be supplied should be sufficient to cover both the existing and future consumers. It must include
provisions for domestic and other types of service connections. In addition to the projected consumptions, an allowance for
non-revenue water (NRW) that may be caused by leakages and other losses should be included. Water demands are influenced
by the following factors:
1. Service levels to be implemented;
2. Size of the community;
3. Standard of living of the populace;
4. Quantity and quality of water available in the area;
5. Water tariffs that need to be shouldered by the consumers;
6. Climatological conditions;
7. Habits and manners of water usage by the people.
Once the consumption demands are defined, the next step is to determine the service level as part of the demand analysis.
B. SERVICE LEVEL DEFINITIONS
Water service levels are classified in the Philippines under three types, depending on the method by which the water is made
available to the consumers:
• Level I (Point Source) – This level provides a protected well or a developed spring with an outlet, but without a
distribution system. The users go to the source to fetch the water. This is generally adaptable for rural areas where
affordability is low and the houses in the intended service area are not crowded. A Level I facility normally serves an
average of 15 households within a radius of 250 meters.
• Level II (Communal Faucet System or Stand Posts) – This type of system is composed of a source, a reservoir, a piped
distribution network, and communal faucets. Usually, one faucet serves four to six households within a radius of 25
meters. It is generally suited for rural and urban fringe areas where houses are clustered in sufficient density to justify
a simple piped system. The consumers still go to the supply point (communal faucet) to fetch the water.
• Level III (Waterworks System or Individual House Connections) – This system includes a source, a reservoir, a piped
distribution network, and individual household taps. It is generally suited for densely populated urban areas where
the population can afford individual connections.
C. DESIGN PERIOD
In commercial utility models, the design period normally spans long periods involving decades within which the initial capital
outlay and succeeding outlays for expansion and rehabilitation can be rationally recovered. For small water utilities, including
those owned by the local governments, such large outlays are not available and cannot be matched by the rural population’s
capacity to pay. For these reasons, the design period or horizon in this Manual is set at 5 or 10 years. In fact, these are the
design periods frequently decided by agreements among the funder, the implementing agency, and the community or the LGU.
In setting the design period, the designer should take into account the terms of the financing package and the potential
consumers’ capability and willingness to pay the amounts needed to support repayment. The advantages and disadvantages
for the 5- and 10-year options are:
1. Five-year design period
• Advantages – Low initial capital cost. If the project is to be financed through a loan, the loan amortizations are
lower due to the lower investment cost.
• Disadvantages – Need for new capital outlays after five (5) years to upgrade system capacity. Most waterworks
facilities, like reservoirs and pipelines are more viable to plan for a one stage 10-year period than to plan in two
stages of 5-year period each.
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2. Ten-year design period
Advantages – The water system facilities are capable of meeting the demand over a longer period. No major
investment cost is expected during the 10-year design period.
• Disadvantages – The higher initial capital cost will require initial tariffs to be set higher.
D. DESIGN POPULATION
The design population is the targeted number of people that the project will serve. Examples in this section on population and
water demand projections are based on the assumption that the design period is 10 years and the design year (or base year) is
2020. There are two ways of projecting the design population.
1. Estimate the population that can be served by the sources. In this case, the supply becomes the limiting factor in the
service level, unless a good abundant and proximate source is available in the locality.
2. Project the community or barangay population, and determine the potential service area4 and the served population.
For purposes of illustration, the latter method is used throughout this Chapter. (The challenge is to discover and develop
sources for populations in need of potable water supply. It is relatively simple to correlate the projected population to be
served with the limitations of supply that may be determined using the first method.) The historical population growth rates
of the municipality/city/barangays are needed as the basis for population projections. The population is enumerated every 5
years (beginning on 1960, except in 2005 where it was moved to 2007 due to budgetary constraints). The latest national census
was conducted for year 2010 but no official results have as yet been released by the NSO. These data can be obtained from the
local governments themselves or from the National Statistics Office (NSO).5
Steps 1-3 below are used to determine the design population.
1. Projecting Annual Municipal and Barangay Growth Rates
The basic equations to be used to determine the average annual growth rate within the last censual period (in this case from
2000 to 2007):
𝑃2007 = 𝑃2000 (1 + 𝐺𝑅)𝑛
1
𝑃2007 2
Or 𝐺𝑅 = ( ) −1
𝑃2000
Where:
P2007 = population in 2007
P2000 = population in 2000
GR = annual growth rate (multiply by 100 to get percent growth rate)
N = the number of years between two census, in this case n = 7
4 Areas with pipes
5 As of Oct 2010, the available census data are for years 2000 and 2007.
Using the above equations, the latest average annual growth rate GR for the municipality and its barangays (potential service
area) can be determined. If a new census report is released by NSO, say for the year 2010, the above formula should be adjusted
accordingly.
The latest historical GR of each covered barangay could then be projected every five years (2010, 2015, 2020). If no projections
of population or growth rates are available for the municipality, the following assumptions can be used:
1. The maximum annual GR by year 2010 will be 2.5% (unless there is a planned development in the barangay that will
boost immigration). It is assumed that the Government’s population program and the public awareness of the issue
will eventually temper high population growth. This is applicable to historical annual GRs that are more than 2.5%.
Interpolation of the GR2007 and GR2010 will be done to get the GRs for the in-between years.
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2. The minimum annual GR by year 2010 will be 1.0%. An annual GR of less than 1.0% for any barangay to be served
is deemed unreasonably low considering that with the provision of accessible water supply, the barangay very likely
will attract migrants. This is particularly applicable to historical annual GRs that are less than 1.0%. The GR2007 and
GR2010 could then be interpolated to get the GRs for the in-between years.
3. For the reasons stated, the GRs within 1.0% to 2.5% will decrease by a modest 0.5% per year. Table 3.1 shows a
sample GR projection using the above method.
Table 3.1: Sample Growth Rate Projections
Growth
Population Projected Annual Growth Rate %
Rate %
Barangay
2000 - 2000 - 2010 - 2015 -
2000 2007
2007 2010 2015 2020
Bgy 1 1,000 1,300 3.82 3.51 3.01 2.50
Bgy 2 2,000 2,300 2.02 1.99 1.94 2.89
Bgy 3 1,800 1,900 0.78 0.83 0.91 1.00
The projected growth rates are preliminary and should be examined if reasonable and realistic. These should be compared
with projections, if any, from the Provincial and Municipal Planning and Development Offices. Adjustments on the computed
GRs should be made as considered necessary.
2. Projecting Municipal and Barangay Populations
Having projected the annual growth rates, the year-by-year population projections for the municipality and barangays could
then be computed by applying the basic equation
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃𝑜 (1 + 𝐺𝑅)𝑛
Where:
Pn = the projected population after nth year from initial year
Po = the population in the initial year of the period concerned
GR = the average growth rate between the two periods
N = number of years between Po and Pn
To project, for example, the population for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020, the equation is substituted as follows:
𝑃𝑜𝑝2010 = 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝2007 (1 + 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑅2007−2010 )3
𝑃𝑜𝑝2015 = 𝑃𝑜𝑝2010 (1 + 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑅2010−2015 )5
𝑃𝑜𝑝2020 = 𝑃𝑜𝑝2015 (1 + 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑅2015−2020 )5
The population for the years in-between are projected by using the same basic equation and applying the respective growth
rates for the periods.
3. Projecting the Population Served
After determining the projected population for each of the barangays, the next step is to determine the actual population to
be served. Some of the residents may not ask for the service, and some will be too far from the distribution system. Determining
the actual potential users involves but is not limited to the following activities:
1. Preparation of base maps;
2. Ocular inspection to gain familiarity with the physical and socio-economic conditions of the potential service area.
Note that population densities must be estimated;
3. Delineation of the proposed service area (where the pipes are to be laid);
4. Determination and assessment of the level of acceptance by the residents of the planned water system. A market
survey is recommended, in which one of the questions to be asked is if the respondent is willing to avail of the
service, and how much is the respondent willing to pay per month for a Level II or a Level III service;
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5. Assessment of the availability and abundance/scarcity of alternative water sources, such as private shallow wells,
dug wells, surface waters, etc.
The percentage of those willing to avail of the planned water service could be adopted in the plan for the initial year of
operation. The annual increase from the initial year up to the end of the design period will have to be assumed by the planner.
For this he/she will have to consider the general economic capacity of the families and other pertinent information. For every
year, the served population is estimated by applying the percentage of willingness to the projected population, per barangay,
for the year.
E. WATER CONSUMPTIONS
Water consumptions served by small water utilities are commonly classified into Domestic Use, Commercial Use, Institutional
Use, or Industrial Use. In rural areas, water consumption is generally limited to domestic uses, i.e., drinking, cooking, cleaning,
washing and bathing. Domestic consumption is further classified as either Level II consumption (public faucets) or Level III
consumption (house connections).
1. Unit Consumptions
Unit consumption for domestic water demand is expressed in per capita consumption per day. The commonly used unit is liters
per capita per day (lpcd). If no definitive data are available, the unit consumption assumptions recommended for Level II and
Level III domestic usages in rural areas are as follows:
• Level II Public Faucets: 50 - 60 lpcd
(Each public faucet should serve 4 - 6 households)
• Level III House Connections: 80 - 100 lpcd
If there are public schools and health centers in the area, they will be supplied from the start of systems operation and be
classified as institutional connections. Commercial establishments can also be assumed to be served, after consultation with
the stakeholders, within the 5-year period. The unit consumptions of institutional and commercial connections are, in terms of
daily consumption per connection, usually expressed in cubic meters per day (m3/d). Unless specific information is available on
the consumptions of these types of connections, the following unit consumptions for commercial and institutional connections
can be used.
• Institutional Connections: 1.0 m3/d
• Commercial Connections: 0.8 m3/d
This unit consumption can be assumed to be constant during the design period under consideration, unless available
information indicates otherwise.
2. Total Consumption
The total consumption is the sum of the domestic, institutional and commercial consumptions expressed in m3/d.
a. Domestic Consumption:
The year-by-year total domestic consumption is projected by applying the projected unit consumption to the projected
population to be served for each year. The served population is estimated by employing the market survey results and
the planner’s judgment of the potential of the area. Based on experience, most water systems originally constructed
as Level II have upgraded either to Level III or to a combined Level II and Level III system. In anticipation of the trend
towards upgrading to Level III in the future, the Level II system planner should assume that within 5 years, 90% of the
households served would opt for individual house connections. This estimate, however, should be tempered by the
planner’s direct first-hand information about the area and its population.
b. Institutional and Commercial Consumption:
After having considered the possible timing and number of institutional and commercial connections, the projected
yearly consumptions for each category are estimated by applying the corresponding projected unit consumptions as
presented in the preceding section.
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F. NON-REVENUE WATER (NRW)
Non-revenue water is the amount of water that is produced but not billed as a result of leaks, pilferages, free water, utility
usages, etc. An allowance should be made for this category; otherwise, the designed source capacity would not be sufficient to
supply the required consumption of paying customers. In actual operation, the NRW should be a cause of concern and should
be subject to measures to keep it as low as possible. For planning purposes, however, a conservative approach should be
adopted. The water demand projection should assume that the NRW of the new system will be fifteen percent (15%) of the
estimated consumptions. The plan’s figure can be increased up to a total of 20% at the end of 10 years. These assumed NRW
figures require good maintenance of utilities, pro-active leakage prevention, and no illegal connections for 100% recovery of
supplied water.
G. WATER DEMAND
The water demand is a summation of all the consumptions given in the preceding sections and will determine the capacity
needed from the source/s. The average daily water demand, also known as the average day demand, is calculated (in m 3/day
or lps) from the estimated water consumptions and the allowance for the NRW (expressed as a percentage). A system with
consumption of 2 lps with a 15% NRW will have an average day demand equal to
2 𝑙𝑝𝑠
= 2.4 𝑙𝑝𝑠
(1 − 𝑁𝑅𝑊)
1. Demand Variations and Demand Factors
Water demand varies within the day and also within the year. This demand variation is dependent on the consumption pattern
of the locality and is measured by four demand conditions which are:
• Minimum day demand: The minimum amount of water required in a single day over a year.
• Average day demand: The average of the daily water requirement spread in a year.
• Maximum day demand: The maximum amount of water required in a single day over a year.
• Peak hour demand: The highest hourly demand in a day.
Each of the above demand conditions is designated a demand factor to define its value based on the average day demand. For
a Level II/III system, the following demand factors are recommended:
Demand Parameter Demand Factor
Minimum day demand 0.3 of average day demand
Average day demand (ADD) 1.0
Maximum day demand 1.3 of average day demand
2.5 of ADD (> 1,000 connections)
Peak hour demand
3.0 of ADD (< 1,000 connections)
The average day demand is first estimated, and the estimates for the other demands follow by directly applying the respective
demand factors to the projected average day demand.
2. Uses of the Demand Variations
• Minimum day demand: The pipe network system is analyzed under a minimum demand condition to check on possible
occurrence of excessive static pressures that the system might not be able to withstand. No point in the transmission and
distribution system should be subjected to pressure more than 70 m.
• Average day demand: Annual estimates and projections on production, revenues, non-revenue water, power costs, and
other O&M costs are based on the average day demand.
• Maximum day demand: The total capacity of all existing and future water sources should be capable of supplying at least the
projected maximum day demand at any year during the design period. The design of treatment plants, pump capacity and
pipelines considers the maximum day demand supply rate as an option in the optimization analysis.
• Peak hour demand: The pipeline network should be designed to operate with no point in the system having pressure below
3 meters during peak hour conditions. If there is no reservoir, the power ratings of pumping stations should be sufficient for
the operation of the facilities during peak hour demands.
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SAMPLE PROBLEM
Given data:
P0 = 2000
P10 = 3000
Persons per household (HH) = 5
Assumptions:
1) Assume 15% NRW (for source capacity)
2) Assume that 90% of the HHs will have Level III connections at Year 10
3) For the community size, assume additional two commercial and one institutional connections
4) Assume a NRW of 15% (for the ADD)
Determine:
Required source capacity for a well operating 18 hrs/day
