Al-Qadisiyah University Dr.
Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
2.3.3 Regression Analysis
Regression analysis helps to estimate one variable (the dependent variable) from
the other variables (the independent variables). Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
was used to study the relationship between various independent variables and the
mean or average of the distribution for a response variable with an important goal
of making useful predictions of the response variable.
The general form of the equation obtained is:
Yp= β + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3 +....+βn Xn +ℇ
where;
Yp = number of trips for specified purpose p
X1, X2, X3, ......Xn = independent variables relating to, for example, land-use
socio-economic factories etc.
β1, β2, β3......,βn = coefficients (Intercepts)of the respective independent variable
X1,X2,X3.....Xn, obtained by linear regression analysis.
ℇ= Disturbance term (error term), which is a constant, and represents that portion
of the value of Yp not explained by the independent variables.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
There are two types of MLR analysis:
➢ Aggregated, or zonal least- square regression, where each traffic zone is
treated as one observation.
➢ Disaggregate, or Household least square each household is treated as an
observation.
As compared to aggregated analysis, disaggregate analysis produces better results
and is considered more likely to be stable over time and to provide more reliable
future estimates
Example: This example deals with the detailed analysis of the collected data in Al-
Diwaniyah City in a study conducted in 2012 to develop trip generation model
which assumes a relationship between the number of trips generated (the
dependent variable) and the social-economic characteristics (the independent
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
variable) in the zone under study- Social economic characteristics for example
mean value income, car ownership, number of families, etc.
Variables Definition: The variables that have been considered in the analysis are
symbolized, as follows:
1. Dependent variables:
➢ Y: Household all trips type per day
➢ Y1: Household educational trips per day
➢ Y2: Household work trips per day
➢ Y3: Household other trips per day
➢ Y4: Household religious trips per day
➢ Y5: Household social trips per day
➢ Y6: Household shopping trips per day
2. Independent variables:
➢ X1: Gender (Male or Female)
➢ X2: Family size
➢ X3: Number of workers in the family
➢ X4: Number of persons less than 6 years old in the family
➢ X5: Number of persons 6-18 years old in the family
➢ X6: Number of persons 19-24 years old in the family
➢ X7: Number of persons 25-60 years old in the family
➢ X8: Number of persons greater than 60 years old in the family
➢ X9: Number of students in the family
➢ X10: Household monthly income in I-D
➢ X11: Area of dwelling unit in m
➢ X12: Dwelling unit ownership (own, rented)
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
➢ X13: Dwelling unit type (house, apartment)
➢ X14: Car ownership.
Multiple linear regression models of trip generation are developed by using the
SPSS software version 16.
Table 1. Stepwise Regression Models for Educational Trips (Y1).
As a summary:
➢ The main factors affecting personal trip production include income, vehicle
ownership, household structure and family size. In addition, factors like
value of land, residential density and accessibility are also considered for
modeling at zonal levels.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
➢ The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is influenced by factors such
as roofed space available for industrial, commercial, and other services. At
the zonal level zonal employment and accessibility are also used.
➢ In trip generation modeling in addition to personal trips, freight trips are also
of interest, their contribution to the congestion is significant. Freight trips are
influenced by number of employees, number of sales and area of
commercial firms.
➢ Trip Purpose are made for different purposes and a classification of trips by
purpose is necessary. The following are some of the important classes of trip
purpose:
1. From home to work.
2. From home to education.
3. From home to shop.
4. From home to social/recreational.
5. From home to other.
6. From work to home.
7. From education to home.
8. From shop to home.
9. From social/recreational to home.
10. From other to home.
➢ Examples of non-home-based trips are trips between work and shop and
business trips between two places of employment.
➢ Also, trips classified according to their origins and destinations within the
external cordon line of the study area into
1. External / External trips; origins and ends outside the external cordon line
of study area.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
2. External / Internal trips; origins outside the external cordon and ends
inside the external cordon line of the study area.
3. Internal / External trips; origins inside the external cordon line and ends
outside the external cordon line of the study area.
4. Internal / Internal trips; origins and ends inside the external cordon line of
the study area.
3. Trip Distribution
Trip distribution models connect the trip origins and destination estimated by the
trip generation models to create estimated trips. Different trip distribution models
are developed for each of the trip purposes for which trip generation has been
estimated. For example, if the trip generation analysis results in an estimate of 200
HBW trips in zone 10, then the trip distribution analysis would determine how
many of these trips would be made between zone 10 and all the other internal
zones. Several basic methods are used for trip distribution. Among these are the
gravity model, growth factor models, and intervening opportunities. The gravity
model has achieved virtually universal use because of its simplicity and its
accuracy.
3.1 Gravity Model
Those models generally estimate the distribution of trips to be proportional to the
number of trip ends estimated by the trip generation models and inversely
proportional to a measure of separation between the origin and destination zones.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
The Gravity Model formulation states that the number of trips between each zone
is equal to:
where
Tij number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone j
Pi total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij a value which is an inverse function of travel time
Kij socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
Example 12.4 Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
To illustrate the application of the gravity model, consider a study area consisting
of three zones. The data have been determined as follows: the number of
productions and attractions has been computed for each zone by methods
described in the section on trip generation, and the average travel times between
each zone have been determined. Both are shown in Tables 12.9 and 12.10.
Assume Kij is the same unit value for all zones. Finally, the F values have been
calibrated as previously described and are shown in Table 12.11 for each travel
time increment. Note that the intrazonal travel time for zone 1 is larger than those
of most other inter-zone times because of the geographical characteristics of the
zone and lack of access within the area. This zone could represent conditions in a
congested downtown area.
Determine the number of zone-to-zone trips through two iterations.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
Solution: The number of trips between each zone is computed using the gravity
model and the given data. (Note: Fij is obtained by using the travel times in Table
12.10 and selecting the correct F value from Table 12.11. For example, travel
time is 2 min between zones 1 and 2. The corresponding F value is 52.)
Use Eq. 12.3.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
The results summarized in Table 12.12 represent a singly constrained gravity
model. This constraint is that the sum of the productions in each zone is equal to
the number of productions given in the problem statement. However, the number
of attractions estimated in the trip distribution phase differs from the number of
attractions given.
For zone 1, the correct number is 300, whereas the computed value is 379. Values
for zone 2 are 270 versus 210, and for zone 3, they are 180 versus 161.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
To create a doubly constrained gravity model where the computed attractions
equal the given attractions, calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to
the formula
To produce a doubly constrained gravity model, repeat the trip distribution
computations using modified attraction values so that the numbers attracted will
be increased or reduced as required. For zone 1, for example, the estimated
attractions were too great. Therefore, the new attraction factors are adjusted
downward by multiplying the original attraction value by the ratio of the original
to estimated attraction values.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
Apply the gravity model (Eq. 12.3) for all iterations to calculate zonal trip
interchanges using the adjusted attraction factors obtained from the preceding
iteration. In practice, the gravity model becomes
where Tijk is the trip interchange between i and j for iteration k, and Ajk Aj when
k =1. Subscript j goes through one complete cycle every time k changes, and i
goes through one complete cycle every time j changes. This formula is enclosed in
parentheses and subscripted to indicate that the complete process is performed for
each trip purpose. Perform a second iteration using the adjusted attraction values.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
The results are summarized in Table 12.13. Note that, in each case, the sum of the
attractions is now much closer to the given value. The process will be continued
until there is a reasonable agreement (within 5%) between the A that is estimated
using the gravity model and the values that are furnished in the trip generation
phase.
When should a singly constrained gravity model or the doubly constrained gravity
model be used? The singly constrained gravity model may be preferred if the
friction factors are more reliable than the attraction values. The doubly
constrained gravity model is appropriate if the attraction values are more reliable
than friction factors
3.2 Growth Factor Models
Trip distribution can also be computed when the only data available are the origins
and destinations between each zone for the current or base year and the trip
generation values for each zone for the future year.
Growth factor models are used primarily to distribute trips between zones in the
study area and zones in cities external to the study area. Since they rely upon an
existing O-D matrix, they cannot be used to forecast traffic between zones where
no traffic currently exists. Further, the only measure of travel friction is the amount
of current travel. Thus, the growth factor method cannot reflect changes in travel
time between zones, as does the gravity model.
The most popular growth factor model is the Fratar method, which is a
mathematical formula that proportions future trip generation estimates to each zone
as a function of the product of the current trips between the two zones Tij and the
growth factor of the attracting zone Gj. Thus:
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
where
Tij =number of trips estimated from zone i to zone j
ti =present trip generation in zone i
Gx =growth factor of zone x
Ti =tiGi= future trip generation in zone i
tix= number of trips between zone i and other zones x
tij = present trips between zone i and zone j
Gj =growth factor of zone j
Example 12.6 Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model A study area
consists of four zones (A, B, C, and D). An O-D survey indicates that the
number of trips between each zone is as shown in Table 12.17. Planning
estimates for the area indicate that in five years the number of trips in each
zone will increase by the growth factor shown in Table 12.18 on page 612 and
that trip generation will be increased to the amounts shown in the last column
of the table. Determine the number of trips between each zone for future
conditions.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
Solution: Using the Fratar formula (Eq. 12.5), calculate the number of trips
between zones A and B, A and C, A and D, and so forth. Note that two values
are obtained for each zone pair (that is, TAB and TBA). These values are
averaged, yielding a value for TAB = (TAB+ TBA) /2.
The calculations are as follows:
The results of the preceding calculations have produced the first estimate (or
iteration) of future trip distribution and are shown in Table 12.19.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture4
The totals for each zone do not equal the values of future trip generation. For
example, the trip generation in zone A is estimated as 693 trips, whereas the actual
value is 720 trips. Similarly, the estimate for zone B is 800 trips, whereas the
actual value is 770 trips.
Proceed with a second iteration in which the input data are the numbers of trips
between zones as previously calculated. Also, new growth factors are computed as
the ratio of the trip generation expected to occur in five years and the trip
generation estimated in the preceding calculation. The values are given in Table
12.20.
The calculations for the second iteration are left to the reader to complete and the
process can be repeated as many times as needed until the estimate and actual trip
generation values are close in agreement.
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