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Overconfidence Bias in Negotiation

1. The document presents a decision matrix evaluating various master's degree programs and careers. It also discusses how cognitive biases can influence negotiation decision-making. 2. Classical game theory assumes rational decision-making based on complete information, but in reality biases often affect negotiations. Anchoring bias occurs when the first offer sets the precedent, while confirmation bias ignores alternative options. 3. Overconfidence bias can also impact negotiations by leading to unrealistic assessments or refusals to compromise, as the author learned from experience with a failed classroom presentation.

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Hugo Besançon
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
189 views2 pages

Overconfidence Bias in Negotiation

1. The document presents a decision matrix evaluating various master's degree programs and careers. It also discusses how cognitive biases can influence negotiation decision-making. 2. Classical game theory assumes rational decision-making based on complete information, but in reality biases often affect negotiations. Anchoring bias occurs when the first offer sets the precedent, while confirmation bias ignores alternative options. 3. Overconfidence bias can also impact negotiations by leading to unrealistic assessments or refusals to compromise, as the author learned from experience with a failed classroom presentation.

Uploaded by

Hugo Besançon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

1.

Decision matrix (with a 0 – 10 scale)


Criteria / Audit Negotiation M&A Market Entrepreun IBE
Master Finance digital ariat
Courses 8 9 8 7 6 8
Teachers 9 10 9 8 8
Future 10 7 10 6 5 6
opportuniti
es
Salary 10 8 10 5 variable 7
What I 6 10 5 3 4 8
prefer

2.
According to classical game theory, people make rational decisions based on complete
information and an analysis of all possible outcomes. Additionally, it assumes that individuals
make decisions based on their own interests and seek to maximize their utility, or the benefits they
obtain from them. However, in reality, individuals are often influenced by cognitive biases that
can affect their decision-making in negotiation situations.
For example, the anchoring bias occurs when people rely too heavily on the first piece of
information they receive when deciding. This can be problematic in negotiations where the first
offer made can set a precedent for the rest of the negotiation. In my own experience, I have seen
negotiators use anchoring as a tactic, deliberately making an extreme offer to anchor the
negotiation in their favor: I worked as a Business Developer in 2021 in Paris, within a
communication/events agency specializing in content creation for brands going from Volvo to
Pernod Ricard, from IBM to Paris 2024. As I was assisting an important brief opening with Moet
and Henessy, a longtime partner with the agency, I remarked that my manager was nervous and
rather unhappy because MH did not seem to want to pay the agency more as several years of
cooperation has passed. Confidence in his negotiation skills, he proposed to raise the agency fees
by 25%, using the excuse of COVID-19's repercussions. The MH representatives were taken
aback, they considered the proposal too indecent and decided to end the meeting. This provoked
anger in the hierarchy, which decided to take the file out of my manager's hands.
Confirmation bias is another common cognitive bias, where individuals seek out information that
confirms their preexisting beliefs but ignores information that contradicts those beliefs. In my
experience, negotiators who are unwilling to consider alternative options and are focused solely
on their own interests can result in a narrow focus and a failure to consider alternative solutions.
During an internship I did in 2020 in a luxury clothing store, I was confronting my boss almost
every day about how old his way of functioning was; the store didn’t have an online shop, several
collections weren’t seasonal updated, and communication between the other subsidiaries in Paris
wasn’t efficient. I proposed to create a website with an adapted design, sticking to the store’ image,
as well as taking the role of mediator between Paris’ store by travelling between them. My boss,
attached to his traditionalism, refused all my suggestions, and said I wasn’t old enough nor
experienced enough to propose a change as deep as this was.
Another cognitive bias that can affect negotiation decision-making is the overconfidence bias.
Typically, individuals overestimate their own abilities or their ability to predict accurately. In
negotiation, this can lead to an unrealistic assessment of the likelihood of success or a refusal to
compromise. In my experience, I have witnessed this bias and even experienced it because I was
too overconfident in my position, which ultimately resulted in a breakdown; I remember a day
when I had to present a case during a course, in 3 rd year. The group was composed of several
friends, and as we were kind of exhausted to always deliver lookalike presentations, we chose to
create theatre situations principally based on humor and absurd cynicism. We were so confident
in our presentation that we didn’t even consider the possibility of making a flop. Well, that’s what
happened: a 25-minute presentation during which that was not even one smile. We ended up a bit
silly and humiliated.

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