Required Report: Required - Public Distribution Date: April 19, 2022

Report Number: BM2022-0006

Report Name: Grain and Feed Annual

Country: Burma - Union of

Post: Rangoon

Report Category: Grain and Feed

Prepared By: FAS Rangoon

Approved By: Eric Mullis

Report Highlights:

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice and corn exports larger in MY 2022/23 due to strong
demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries. Post forecasts Burma’s wheat imports down in MY
2022/23 due to low domestic demand, restrictions on buying of foreign currency, and changing import
policies.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY
STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Executive Summary:

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts rice production in Burma (also called Myanmar) flat in marketing year
(MY) 2022/23. Anticipated high costs for agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilizers and fuel) and limited access
to financing have discouraged farmers from planting. Burma’s rice exports are likely to increase four
percent in MY 2022/23 due to high demand from African, EU, and ASEAN countries and potentially an
increase in official rice exports to China. Exporters shifted border trade to sea freight after prolonged
closures of Burma-China border gates and high transportation cost. Low domestic production, active
domestic demand, high transportation costs, depreciation of Myanmar Kyats and limited milling
operations will increase domestic prices for rice in MY 2022/23.

Post forecasts Burma’s corn production higher due to surging demand from Thailand, China,
Philippines, Vietnam, and India in MY 2022/23. Burma’s feed demand, however, continues to decline
about 40-50 percent due to reduced livestock production and high prices for corn.

Post forecasts wheat production in Burma smaller in MY2022/23 due to low domestic demand, lack of
good quality seed, and low investment by the government in promoting production. Domestic prices for
wheat increased in 2021 due to low domestic production, high fuel costs, and the depreciation of the
Myanmar Kyat against the U.S. dollar. Post anticipates Burma’s wheat imports and consumption to be
smaller in MY2022/23 due to low demand from bakeries, coffee shops, the tourism industry, and a
suspension of sending wheat from Rangoon to conflict areas and small cities. While U.S. wheat exports
to Burma have been growing with significant market share gains, U.S. wheat faces competition from
Australian wheat that enjoys duty-free access under a preferential trade agreement.
1. Rice
Table 1.1: Burma’s Rice Production, Supply, and Distribution
Rice, Milled 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023
Market Year Begins Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Burma (Myanmar) USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 6900 6800 6900 6900 0 6900
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 1012 1012 1164 1404 0 1308
Milled Production (1000 MT) 12600 12600 12600 12352 0 12352
Rough Production (1000 MT) 19688 19688 19688 19300 0 19300
Milling Rate (.9999) (1000 MT) 6400 6400 6400 6400 0 6400
MY Imports (1000 MT) 2 2 2 2 0 2
TY Imports (1000 MT) 2 2 2 2 0 2
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 13614 13614 13766 13758 0 13662
MY Exports (1000 MT) 1900 1910 1900 2200 0 2300
TY Exports (1000 MT) 1900 1910 1900 2200 0 2300
Consumption and Residual (1000 MT) 10550 10300 10650 10250 0 10250
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 1164 1404 1216 1308 0 1112
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 13614 13614 13766 13758 0 13662
Yield (Rough) (MT/HA) 2.8533 2.8953 2.8533 2.7971 0 2.7971

(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

MY = Marketing Year, begins with the month listed at the top of each column
TY = Trade Year, which for Rice, Milled begins in January for all countries. TY 2022/2023 = January 2023 - December 2023
Source: Post Calculation based on information from the Ministry of Commerce, Department of Agriculture, and phone interviews with
industry sources

1.1 Production
Post forecasts MY2022/23 rice production to be equal to MY2021/22 at 12.35 million metric tons (MT)
mainly due to rising production costs. The continued depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat against the U.S.
dollar, the political crisis, and the continued economic impacts of COVID-19 have fueled the rising
costs of fertilizers, chemicals, fuel, and seeds since mid-2021. In addition, Burmese farmers continue to
have limited access to financing. The net margin for farmers remains uncertain with the current
reference prices (floor prices), and farmers will probably use less inputs, which will lead to reduced
production. The currently market prices for rough rice (paddy) (355,000-375,000 Myanmar Kyat
(MMK)/MT) are higher than the reference prices (270,000 MMK/MT). Post revised MY2020/21
production down to 12.6 million MT due to insufficient irrigation. In MY2020/21, the prices for all
agricultural inputs also increased in MY2020/21. The price for urea increased 30-40 percent during the
MY2020/21 monsoon rice crop and more than doubled during the second rice crop.

Posts forecasts lower yields as farmer used significantly less fertilizer in MY2021/22 and will likely use
a reduced amount in MY2022/23. Trade sources confirmed that imports of urea fertilizer, which is
mainly used in rice cultivation, declined about 20-25 percent in 2021. In addition, agricultural input
suppliers demanded payments in cash at the time of purchase due to the unstable economic and political
situation. Burmese farmers have limited access to financing making it difficult for them to acquire
enough cash to purchase sufficient agricultural inputs. Farmers have begun switching to cheaper and
more natural fertilizers. Post expects that the planting area and production of the second rice crop in
MY2020/21 and the main crop in MY2021/22 to be smaller as farmers will use less urea fertilizer.
Favorable weather, however, made the MY2020/21 main crop production slightly larger than the
previous year.

Rising fuel prices, which have more than doubled since the February 1, 2021, are also making it harder
for farmers to operate farms with limited financing. Farmers use fuel in irrigated farms to pump water
from rivers and underground sources to farmland in higher elevations. In addition, blackouts have
increased in frequency, occurring daily and for long durations of time. The Ministry of Electricity and
Energy announced an electricity schedule for March 2022 making electricity available in four-hour
intervals. The State Administration Council (SAC) announced that electricity rationing will continue
until May 2022. The blackouts coupled with high fuel costs will limit rice milling operations.

Post forecasts average yield in MY2022/23 to be the same as MY2021/22 at 2.8 MT/Ha, which is lower
than the normal yield of 2.9 MT/Ha. Farmers are doing more direct seeding and broadcasting
methods in rice cultivation due to higher labor costs and uncertain water availability. The Department of
Agriculture reports that urea accounts for more than 44 percent of total fertilizer utilization, followed by
compound fertilizers (40 percent), phosphate (8 percent), and potash and other fertilizers (8 percent).
Burma imports urea from China, Malaysia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and
Indonesia. Urea imports, however, decreased 20-25 percent in 2021. Industry sources reported that
Burma usually uses 300,000-400,000 MT of urea fertilizer for main rice crop cultivation.

1.2 Consumption
Rice is the staple diet in Burma. For people in rural Burma (70 percent of the population), most people
consume rice three times per day, with per capita consumption estimated at 170 kg per year. In urban
areas (30 percent of the population), most Burmese consume rice two times per day, with a per capita
consumption estimated at 145 kg per year. The country’s average per capita consumption is estimated to
be 155 kg based on a survey by the Myanmar Rice Federation in 2016. However, per capital
consumption may vary by region and ethic group.

In general, head rice is mainly consumed as part of breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Food manufacturers use
broken rice and other lower quality rice to make rice noodles and traditional Burmese snacks, which are
more common in rural areas. Broken rice is also used for livestock feed. Burma plants more than 100
varieties of rice in 3 main categories, including Emata (long grain), Pawsan (median and round), and
Ngasein. High and some middle-class Burmese consume superior quality Pawsan varieties, which is
seven percent of total rice production, including the premium Shwe Bo Pawsan. Low and some middle-
class Burmese consume other types of super quality Paw San, high quality long grain, and median grain
rice. Emata 25 percent broken rice is the largest rice export by volume; however, China demands high
grade of Emata rice from Burma. Ngasein variety has lower eating quality and is mainly used to make
noodles and traditional rice snacks.
Figure 1.1: Map of States and Regions in Burma

Post forecasts rice consumption flat at 10.25 MMT in both MY2022/23 and MY2021/22. Due to a slow
economy, low income, higher food prices, and the return of migrant workers, Posts expects to see more
broken rice used in livestock feed. The closure of 60-70 percent of cafés and restaurants, continued
closure of hotels, limited foreign tourism, and reduced local travel by citizens will continue to limit rice
consumption in MY2021/22. The State Administration Council announced that international flights will
restart in April 2022.

Smaller livestock producers, including backyard farms, are the main consumers of broken rice. Feed
millers confirmed that they are using more broken rice due to high corn prices in MY2021/22. The
increase in broken rice in feed, however, has not contributed to higher overall consumption rates as
poultry and swine production was down in 2021 and unlikely to recover in 2022. Posts revised down
MY2020/21 rice consumption as most restaurants were closed during the third wave of COVID-19 in
July 2021(Table 1.1).
1.3 Trade
Post forecasts Burma’s MY2022/23 rice exports to grow to 2.3 MMT with continued strong demand for
head rice from China, Philippines, and Sri Lanka, and for broken rice from EU countries. Post forecasts
for MY2021/22 to also increase to 2.2 MMT from the reduced imports during MY2020/21. After several
official discussions between the two countries, border gates in Muse and Laukkaing Township located in
Shan State reopened on November 26, 2021. Border gates in Kachin State reopened mid-December
2021 and the rest of the border gates opened in January 2022. Transportation costs at the border
increased significantly reaching 10 million MMK/50MT of rice, forcing most rice exporters to shift
from border trade to maritime trade. China also announced the temporary suspension on imports of
several kinds of goods through the Kyin San Kyawt gate on March 14, 2022, including rice and broken
rice. Since most rice trade had already shifted to sea freight, the temporary suspension will not have a
significant impact on rice exports to China. Exporters are now shipping more than 80 percent of total
rice exports to China via sea.

Burma signed a new bilateral agreement with the government of Sri Lanka to export 150,000 metric tons
of rice on January 7, 2022. The Sri Lanka State Trading (General) Cooperation plans to buy 100,000
metric tons of high-quality Myanmar white rice and 50,000 metric tons of parboiled rice in 2022 and
2023. Rice and broken rice demand from EU has increased since August 2021, and Post expects demand
to continue growing due to low prices in comparison with Thailand and Vietnam.

Posts revised down Burma’s MY2020/21 rice exports from 2.3 to1.9 MMT, 17 percent lower than the
previous year due to the closing of border gates. China closed border gates throughout the last few years
as a preventative control measure against the spread of COVID-19 and only allowed Chinese trucks to
cross the border, which significantly increased shipping costs. Burma exported head rice (milled rice)
and broken rice to more than 40 countries in 2021, with more than 80 percent through official channels.
Primary export markets for head rice are China, Philippines, Bangladesh, and EU countries, while
primary export markets for broken rice were China, Belgium, Poland, Indonesia, and Spain in 2021.
Burma exported more than 1 MMT of rice and broken rice to China in 2021, accounting for
approximately 62 percent of total rice exports.

Table 1.2: Official and Unofficial Rice Exports in 2021 (Metric Tons)
Rice Milled, 2021
Month Non-border trade Border trade
Total
Head Rice Broken Rice Head Rice Broken Rice
January 86,217 59,170 48,805 64,049 258,241
February 30,311 41,393 24,406 21,042 117,152
March 29,233 10,791 26,555 39,143 105,722
April 48,060 41,475 12,385 21,435 123,355
May 104,431 53,618 7,471 30,566 196,086
June 103,120 52,308 10,137 39,932 205,497
July 26,166 18,575 2,497 3,308 50,546
August 39,197 13,285 920 140 53,542
September 65,274 54,775 145 452 120,646
October 86,450 88,261 0 380 175,091
November 153,225 72,015 0 527 225,767
December 198,773 69,314 425 1,269 269,781
Total 970,457 574,980 133,746 222,243 1,901,426
Source: Ministry of Commerce, Custom Data, Myanmar Rice Federation.
Table 1.3: Official and Unofficial Rice Exports in 2022 (Metric Tons)
Rice Milled, 2022
Month Non-border trade Border trade
Total
Head Rice Broken Rice Head Rice Broken Rice
January 205,098 100,596 6,723 2,251 314,667
February 105,000* 95,000* 4,200* 10,000* 214,200*
March 100,000* 90,000* 3,000* 3,000* 196,000*
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total 410,098 285,596 13,923 15,251 724,867
Source: Ministry of Commerce, Custom Data, Myanmar Rice Federation.
* denotes post’s estimate

1.4 Prices
Domestic prices of rice usually drop when new supplies enter the market in November from the main
crop and rise at the end of February before the harvest of the second crop. Average domestic wholesale
prices for Emata 25 percent broken rice have increased since 2020 and remain high in March
2022. Prices for Emata 25 percent broken rice dropped while the border gates were closed but started
climbing in October 2021 in anticipation of the resumption of border trade, declining stocks in the
domestic market, and a smaller rice production forecast in MY2021/22. Domestic prices for superior
quality Shwe Bo Pawsan in Yangon have increased since May 2021 due a reduced supply entering to the
market. Rice mills were not able to operate normally through most of 2021. In addition, the closure of
some commodity centers and limited transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic also reduced the
supply of rice in the domestic market (see Figure 1.3). Domestic wholesale prices for both Emata 25
percent broken rice and Shwe Bo Pawsan have increased 10-15 percent in March 2022 due to active
domestic demand, higher transportation costs, Myanmar Kyat depreciating against the U.S. dollar, and
low supplies due to limited milling operations. The Myanmar Rice Federation has been selling a small
quantity of rice at reduced prices in some townships in Yangon.
Figure 1.2: Average Monthly Wholesale Prices for Emata 25 Percent Broken (low grade) Rice
(MMK/108 lb Bag)
26,000

25,000

24,000

23,000

22,000

21,000

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December

2020 2021 2022

Source: Myanmar Rice Federation

Figure 1.3: Average Monthly Domestic Wholesale Prices for Shwe Bo Pawsan Rice (MMK/108 lb
Bag)
63000

61000

59000

57000

55000

53000

51000

49000

47000

45000
January February March April May June July August September October November December

2020 2021 2022

Source: Myanmar Rice Federation

1.5 Policy
Burma set floor prices for rough rice (paddy) at 540,000 MMK for every 100 baskets (about
US$146/MT1, 1 basket is 20.86 lb) of paddy harvested in the 2021 monsoon and 2022 summer seasons
that had a 14 percent moisture content and met established minimum quality criteria. The government
provides seasonal farm loans and short term and long-term credit for agricultural crops, including rice,
oilseeds, pulses, and beans, but the amount of credit varies by the commodity and season. The Myanmar

1
Post used a central bank’s fixed exchange rate of 1,850 MMK/1US$
Agricultural Development Bank (MADB) also provides credit for rice farmers of up to 150,000
Myanmar kyat (US$81) for a maximum of 10 acres with a 5 percent interest rate (Table 1.5). Farm
credit provided by the government is only 30-40 percent of the cost of production and farmers must seek
credit from other sources. In addition to MADB farm loans, farmers can also access loans from the
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Myanmar Economic Bank (MEB). Due to
restricted transportation and poor cash flow due to disruptions in the banking system, the local
cooperatives and various NGOs and microfinance institutions could not provide loans for farmers which
led to limited access to loans to allow them to pay in cash for inputs.

MADB provides farm loans for the winter crop season (the second week of November to January),
which must be paid off by the following September. Additionally, the government will disburse farm
loans for the pre-monsoon cultivation season between early January and the end of March, which
farmers must pay off by the following February. Farmers can take out agricultural loans for the monsoon
crop season between early May and the end of September, and the deadline for repayment is in April.
Farmers who have not paid off previous loans are not eligible for new ones.

The government provided 2.7 billion MMK (US$1.46 million) for farmers in MY2019/20 and an
additional 479.2 billion MMK (US$259 million) as a special COVID-19 relief loan for farmers. The
Burmese government extended the repayment period for COVID-19 special loans and farm loans for the
2021 winter crop to lessen the impact of COVID-19 and to encourage agricultural activities. The
repayment period of the COVID-19 special loan was amended from December 31, 2021, to the end of
March 2022. The deadline for the repayment for the winter crop loan was extended from January 31,
2020 to the end of February 2022. The government also announced interest rate reductions for farm
loans on April 1, 2021 (1 percent) and May 15, 2021(an additional 2 percent). The interest rate for
annual agricultural loans provided by MADB, JICA two-step loan, and the Myanmar Economic Bank
(MEB) loan were also reduced (see Table 1.5).

The Burmese government does not control the volume of rice exports and encourages the export of
agricultural products. The Burmese government allows imports of very small quantities of sushi rice and
Thai fragrant rice for use in Japanese and Korean restaurants. The Myanmar Rice Federation, and
sometimes the Department of Trade, must approve all imports of rice. Import tariffs for rice and other
commodities are listed in Table 4.

Table 1.4. Type of loan and Amount of Loan Provided by MABD

(Myanmar Kyats in Million)
Year Pre-monsoon Monsoon Winter COVID-19 relief fund
2017 16,362 1,416,704 272,222  
2018 18,781 1,301,614 366,264  
2019 16,500 1,346,4708 362,199  
2020 17,955 137,5987   481,058
Duration of
January to March May to September October to January June 2020 to September
loan
Source: Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank
Table. 1.5 Type of Loan and Interest Rate in 2019-2021
Reduced Interest rate in
Type of loan Annual Interest rate Interest rate in 2020/21
2019/20
Farm loan provided by MADB 8% 7% 5%
JICA Two steps loan 8% 6.5% 5%
MEB, Two step loan 9% 8% 6.5%
Saving account for farmers 8% 6.5% 5%
Source: Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank

Marketing:
Farmers sell rice (rough) to rice millers directly through contract farming or through local collectors.
Most of the local collectors are sent by rice millers. The rice millers then sell to rice wholesalers or sell
directly to exporters. Wholesalers then distribute the rice to retail shops and department stores. Most
farmers must sell their rice immediately after harvest to pay back farm loans and to get cash for their
home expenditures. However, there are some large farmers who decide to store rice and wait for higher
prices. There are two main rice trading centers: the Bayintnaung rice trading center and Wardan rice
trading center, both in Yangon. Rice from the delta region enters the Wardan rice trading center and is
mostly consumed locally and exported to China through the border. Rice from Bago and Yangon enter
the Bayintnaung rice trading center and mainly sell to overseas markets. The standard weight for one
basket is 46 lb with 14 percent moisture content. Since farmers usually sell the rice (rough) immediately
after harvest by the combine harvesters, the moisture content is usually higher than 14 percent. In order
to cover the loss from high moisture and unfilled grains and dust, buyers offer lower prices than market
prices and use a different weight measure: 50-52 lb per basket.

2. Corn
Table 2.1: Burma’s Corn Production, Supply, and Distribution
Corn 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023
Market Year Begins Oct 2020 Oct 2021 Oct 2022
Burma (Myanmar) USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 590 650 590 670 0 670
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 35 35 70 47 0 59
Production (1000 MT) 2450 2800 2450 2900 0 2900
MY Imports (1000 MT) 5 12 5 12 0 12
TY Imports (1000 MT) 5 12 5 12 0 12
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 2490 2847 2525 2959 0 2971
MY Exports (1000 MT) 1850 2400 1800 2450 0 2450
TY Exports (1000 MT) 1850 2400 1800 2450 0 2450
Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 500 350 500 400 0 400
FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 70 50 70 50 0 50
Total Consumption (1000 MT) 570 400 570 450 0 450
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 70 47 155 59 0 71
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 2490 2847 2525 2959 0 2971
Yield (MT/HA) 4.1525 4.3077 4.1525 4.3284 0 4.3284
(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)
MY = Marketing Year, begins with the month listed at the top of each column
TY = Trade Year, which for Corn begins in October for all countries. TY 2022/2023 = October 2022 - September 2023
Source: Post Calculation based on information from the Ministry of Commerce, the Department of Agriculture, and interviews with
industry sources.
2.1 Production
Post forecasts Burma’s corn production in MY2022/23 and MY2021/22 at 2.9 MMT due to high
domestic prices, robust export demand from Thailand, Philippines, Laos, Vietnam, India, and possibly
China. High corn prices encouraged some sweet corn farmers to shift to seed corn production. In
MY2021/22, Burma’s wet season corn production increased, especially in southern Shan State (in the
Eastern part of country), Sagaing Region and Kayah State due to favorable weather. The second crop
(dry season crop) production in MY2021/22 is likely to decrease about 10 percent especially in irrigated
areas due to high fuel and fertilizer costs. Farmers typically use 100-250 kg/acre of fertilizer per acre
during the second crop (dry season corn). The main producing areas for wet season corn are Shan State,
Kachin State, Kayah State, and Sagaing region, while the main producing area for dry season corn is the
Ayeyarwady region. Yields for MY2021/22 wet season corn should be good due to favorable rainfall,
while yield for the second crop, which is only 12 percent of total production, will likely decrease due to
high fuel and fertilizer costs. Good quality seed and favorable weather should keep yields good in
MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 despite high fuel and fertilizer costs.

Rainfall, seed quality, and fertilizer are the main factors in determining the yield. Wet season crop often
relies solely on rainfall. Farmers only harvest about 15-20 percent of corn production with machines,
while they thresh most of the corn mechanically. Almost all corn cultivated in Burma is from hybrid
seed, largely imported from Thailand. Major players in the corn seed market are Charoen Pokphand (CP
Group), Myama Awba Group, Aventine Limited, and Seven Tiger Group. Burmese corn farmers plant
more than 7,000-10,000 MT of seed annually and purchase the seed from local seed producers, seed
importers, and small amount from the government. Government seed producing farms only provide 7-8
percent of the total seed demand.

2.2 Feed Consumption

Post forecasts local feed corn demand in MY2022/23 at 400,000 MT, which is still below average
consumption. High domestic prices, reduced demand from the livestock sector, and higher usage of
broken rice in feed production have reduced the consumption of feed corn in Burma. Posts estimates that
domestic demand for livestock feed will decrease 40-50 percent in MY2022/23 with a decline in
livestock production. Higher prices from increased costs for fuel and inputs, reduced purchasing power,
and unstable electricity supply have all contributed to decreased domestic demand for meat and eggs.
The decrease in foreign and domestic tourists has also lowered the demand for meat and eggs.

The price for corn has increased by 45 percent from the previous year due to strong export demand from
Thailand, Philippines, China, and Vietnam. Some feed mills are using more broken rice and sorghum in
their feed formulation due to the high prices for corn. In addition, breeding farms have reduced their
day-old chick production due to the low domestic demand for poultry meat, the high input costs, and
electrical problems. Feed millers are requiring farmers to purchase feed with cash instead of on credit
due to the unstable banking system. Some small and median poultry farms have had to close, and only
large farms that receive foreign direct investment and that are vertically integrated are able to stay in
operation.

The Myanmar Livestock Federation reports that approximately 70 percent of the raw livestock feed
demand comes from the poultry sector and 25 percent from the swine sector. Domestic corn constitutes
35-45 percent of total feed composition in the poultry sector, depending on the age of the animal,
nutrition formula of the feed mill, feeding methods, and domestic prices.
2.3 Trade
Post forecasts Burma’s corn exports at 2.45 MMT in MY2022/23 due to high demand from Thailand,
Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and China. Burma’s corn export to Philippines and Vietnam
increased significantly in early October 2021. Burma exported more than 355,000 MT to the Philippines
and more than 290,000 MT to Vietnam during the last quarter of 2021. Burma also exported 37,850 MT
to Bangladesh, a new market, between October and December 2021. In addition, corn exports to
Thailand have resumed through the Myawady (Burma-Thailand) border trade gate. Posts expects
demand from Thailand to remain strong in 2022. According to the ASEAN Free Trade Area, Thailand
allows duty-free imports of corn through the border from February to August. However, importers must
pay a 73 percent tariff from September to January.

The Myanmar Corn Industrial Association reported that China wants to buy Burmese corn through
official channel and singed an SPS protocol in January 2022. China suspended corn imports from Burma
in 2019. Trade sources reported that China offered to buy 100,000 MT of corn from Burma as soon as
the Burmese companies register at the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of
China (GACC).

The Myanmar Corn Industry Association (MCIA) and local feed millers met on March 17 to discuss the
domestic corn supply needs for the livestock industry. MCIA committed to prioritize some corn supply
to feed millers at market prices to avoid a short supply for the millers if they share the volume needed in
advance.

Due to conflicts between the Junta and Karen National Union (KNU), the primary road to Myawady
(Border trade city with Thailand) was closed on March 27 and trade was suspended between the two
countries. Due to closing a road to Myawady, the domestic price for corn declined about 10 percent.
Trade sources expect the trade will resume after the Burmese New Year holidays in the third week of
April. About 80,000 MT of Burmese corn is stacked at Myawady border and traders are demanding high
prices to control the daily volume of corn across the border.

2.4 Prices
Yellow corn prices have increased since 2020 and reached a record high in 2022 as there is high demand
for corn from Burma’s trading partners. Domestic prices for yellow corn tend to be higher in June, July,
and August as no new supplies enter the market but then drop in October with the arrival of new
supplies. However, in MY2021/22 domestic prices continued increasing in October, November, and
December 2021 even during harvest time. Yellow corn prices reached record highs in March 2022 at
1,015 MMK/viss (See Figure 2.2), which is 43 percent higher than the price at the end of December
2021. Most local feed millers have limited storage capacity and usually hold one to two months of usage
in stock. Feed millers could face a short corn supply in June 2022 if the export demand continues and
prices remain high.
Figure 2.1. Monthly Domestic Wholesale Prices for Yellow Corn (000’MMK/MT) Yangon Market
700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250
January February March Aprl May June July August September October November December

2019 2021 2022

Source: etrademyanmar.com
Note:MMK = Myanmar Kyats

2.5 Policy
The Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank provides farm loans (100,000 MMK per acre) for corn
farmers in Burma. The Department of Agriculture also provides technical assistance, such as training via
extension agents on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and pest and disease control, during the growing
season. The Central Bank of Myanmar allowed for direct payment of Thai Baht / MMK for Myanmar-
Thailand border trade on March 3, 2022. This will facilitate Burmese corn exports to Thailand. The
Burmese Ministry of Commerce announced that yellow corn seed (maize), sorghum, corn flour and
cracked corn will require an export license starting April 1, 2022. This policy has not had an impact on
domestic prices.

Burma and China signed a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) protocol to enable the export of Burmese
corn and corn silage to China on January 31, 2022. According to the SPS protocol, Myanmar companies
must register at the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC). The
Myanmar Inspection and Testing Services Ltd will inspect corn processing plants and warehouses to
determine if they meet the SPS requirements. Trade sources expect that China probably relax the SPS
requirements as they need corn from Burma. Six Burmese exporters have already registered with the
GACC to export corn silage to China and have already exported about 52 MT. Industry sources
confirmed that Burma is planning to access official corn exports to China under their new SPS protocol
and expects to export 400,000-500,000MT of corn to China during MY 2022/23.
3. Wheat
Table 3.1: Burma’s Wheat Production, Supply, and Distribution
Wheat 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023
Market Year Begins Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul 2022
Burma (Myanmar) USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 70 60 70 56 0 56
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 141 141 81 91 0 66
Production (1000 MT) 100 80 100 75 0 75
MY Imports (1000 MT) 460 450 450 430 0 430
TY Imports (1000 MT) 460 450 450 430 0 430
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT) 96 96 0 30 0 30
Total Supply (1000 MT) 701 671 631 596 0 571
MY Exports (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
TY Exports (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 620 580 570 530 0 530
Total Consumption (1000 MT) 620 580 570 530 0 530
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 81 91 61 66 0 41
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 701 631 631 596 0 571
Yield (MT/HA) 1.4286 1.3333 1.4286 1.3393 0 1.3393

(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

MY = Marketing Year, begins with the month listed at the top of each column
TY = Trade Year, which for Wheat begins in July for all countries. TY 2022/2023 = July 2022 - June 2023
Source: Post Calculation based on information from the Ministry of Commerce, the Department of Agriculture, and Trade Data Monitor
(TDM), interviews with industry sources.

3.1 Production
Post forecasts MY2022/23 wheat production at 75,000 MT. Decreased domestic demand, lack of good
quality seeds, low government interest in supporting wheat production, and high cost of production from
rising fuel and fertilizer prices will keep wheat production below average. The Sagaing region, the
Mandalay region (central plain of country), and Shan State (eastern part of country) are the main wheat
producing regions in Burma. The Sagaing region accounts for more than 73 percent of total production,
followed by Shan State at 11 percent, and Mandalay at 4 percent. Famers typically plant wheat in
October and harvest it between January and March. Post forecasts MY 2021/22 wheat production lower
as well due to less domestic demand and high input costs.

3.2 Consumption
Post forecasts wheat consumption down to 530 MT in MY 2022/23 and MY 2021/22 due to lower
domestic demand. Wheat noodle manufacturers consume 45 percent of total wheat flour in noodle
production, bakeries consume another 35 percent, and other food manufacturers use the remaining 20
percent to produce wheat products such as wheat-derived breakfast foods. Wheat breakfast snacks, such
as prata, spring rolls, samosas, chapati, roti, naan, puri, and dosas, are popular and cheaper wheat-based
foods at breakfast cafés in Burma. Small individual sellers at wet markets often sell these snacks
targeting lower- and middle-income people who are price sensitive. When prices increase for these
snacks, the main consumer base can no longer afford them. Lower- and middle-income consumers will
switch to eating rice at home if they can no longer afford these snacks. Similarly, demand for bakery
goods and fast food is also weak due to high prices and low incomes. For a more detailed look into
wheat consumption in the Burmese market, please read the GAIN report, “Pandemic and Coup Reduce
Wheat Consumption in Burma.” High prices for both domestic and imported wheat, the continued
closures of cafés and restaurants, and the lack foreign and domestic tourists have all contributed to lower
demand for wheat. Some wheat millers have suspended distribution to small cities and conflict areas
within the country due to lower demand in those areas, safety concerns, and transportation challenges.
The prices for imported wheat and edible oil have also increased due to the Ukraine crisis.

There are more than 70 wheat flour mills in the Mandalay, Monywa, Sagaing area (central part of the
country) with a capacity of approximately 30-60 MT/day. Wheat millers operate these mills
independently and primarily use local wheat grains from Shan State. They rely on imported wheat when
the local supply is not sufficient. These mills produce flour according to the demand in their areas and
often do not operate daily or at full capacity. There are four major wheat mill businesses (i.e., U Kyu
Family Group, Lluvia (under the umbrella of Capital Diamond Star), Htun Myittar companies, and
Wilmar Myanmar) who operate larger wheat mills. Even these bigger wheat mill companies have
reduced their operations by about 40-50 percent since 2021 due to the unstable situation following the
coup, COVID-19 restrictions, and power outages.

3.3 Trade
Post forecasts wheat imports at 430,000 MT in MY2022/23 and MY2021/22 due to poor domestic
demand, higher world prices, the depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat against the U.S. dollar, and
increasingly stringent controls on foreign currency. Burma mainly imports wheat grain from Australia,
Canada, and the United States. In 2021, Australia supplied 75 percent of Burma’s total wheat grain
imports. Australia wheat benefits from zero duties under the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade
Area. Major wheat mills in Yangon usually source about 20-30 percent of their wheat grain from
Ukraine as it is generally cheaper than wheat grain from Australia and the United States. Wheat imports
from Ukraine had already decreased during 2021 due to higher prices and logistic challenges. Burma
imported 19,251 MT of wheat grain from Ukraine in MY 2020/21and has only imported 31,206 MT so
far in MY 2021/2022.

The Central Bank of Myanmar released an order on April 3, 2022, restricting the trading and holding of
foreign currency, including U.S. dollars. Please see unofficial translation for the order at
https://www.lincolnmyanmar.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/CBM-Directive-4-2022-.pdf. The order
also requires trading companies to work through the Department of Trade in order to pay for imported
products. This order negatively impacts both exporters and importers and will hinder trading.

3.4 Prices
Domestic prices for wheat doubled in March 2022 compared to the same period last year due to
anticipated low domestic production, high fuel and transportation costs, and the depreciation of the
Myanmar Kyat against the U.S. dollar. Domestic wholesale prices for wheat gradually increased during
August and September 2021 and sharply increased in October due to reduced stocks. Prices for imported
wheat flour vary according to type of wheat flour and are usually cheaper and higher quality than local
wheat. Domestic wheat prices mostly depend on demand from the mills in Mandalay, Sagaing, and Shan
State since they primarily use local wheat. However, current world prices for wheat increased due to the
Ukraine crisis.
Figure 3.1 Average Domestic Price for Wheat gain in Mandalay market (MMK/MT)

1,100,000

1,000,000

900,000

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December

2020 2021 2022

Source: etrademyanmar.com

3.5 Policy
The military regime is seeking to reduce imports of “non-essential” products to save foreign currency in
order to reduce the current trade deficit. The military regime has recently released a number of
notifications for the revision of the list of goods for which importers must apply for import licenses,
including wheat. There are no trade restrictions on the volume of wheat imports.

Table 4. Import Tariff in Burma

Commodity Purpose Unit of Quantity MFN Rate (%)
Rice Consumption kg 5
Rice seed Sowing kg 0
Wheat Grain Consumption kg 0
Wheat Flour Consumption kg 5
Corn Seed Sowing kg 0
Corn Flour Consumption kg 5
Source: Myanmar Customs Department 

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