Lesson 7
Confidence Level
and
Sample Size
Lesson Objectives
At the end of the lesson, you are able/expected to:
1. understand the relation of confidence interval to
sample size; and
2. determine sample size based on selected
confidence level.
Determining Formula 1
There are two things to remember when we decide on the quality of the
sample size we need : confidence and narrowness of the interval. The
computing formula in determining sample size is derived from the
formula of the margin of error E where:
𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒛𝜶/𝟐
𝒏
Let us solve for n, the sample size needed in estimating a population
mean. To do this, we modify the equation by applying properties of
equality.
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 ∙𝝈 𝟐
𝒏=
𝑬
Formula in determining the Minimum Sample Size needed when
Estimating the population Mean
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 ∙𝝈 𝟐
𝒏=
𝑬
Since the value of σ is usually unknown, it can be estimated by the
standard deviation s from a prior sample. Alternately, we can
approximate the range R of the observations in the population and make
𝑹
a conservative estimate of ≈ . In any case, round up the value of obtained
𝟒
to ensure that the sample size will be sufficient to achieve the specified
reliability.
EXAMPLE: FEEDING PROGRAM
In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean weightµ, in kilograms of al six-
year-old children to be included in a feeding program. She wants to be 99% confident
that the estimate of µ is accurate within 0.06 kg. Suppose from a previous study, the
standard deviation of the weights of the target population was 0.5 kg. What should the
sample size be?
Solution:
Given the confidence 99%. Then 𝝈 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏. Thus, 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟖.
The phrase “ accurate to within 0.06 kg. “ indicates a narrowed width of the
confidence interval Thus, the desired error E= 0.06 kg.
Population standard deviation = 0.5 kg
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 ∙𝝈 𝟐 (𝟐.𝟓𝟖)(𝟎.𝟓) 𝟐 𝟏.𝟐𝟗 𝟐
𝒏= = = = (𝟐𝟏. 𝟓)𝟐 = 𝟒𝟔𝟐. 𝟐𝟓
𝑬 𝟎.𝟎𝟔 𝟎.𝟎𝟔
Round up the value to 462. So, The required sample size is 462 six-year old children.
Example 2: REPLACATING A STUDY
Joshua wants to replicate a study where the lowest observed value is 12.4 while the
highest value is 12.8. He wants to estimate the population mean µ to within an error
of 0.025 of its true value. Using 99% confidence level, find the sample size n that he
needs.
Solution:
Given the confidence 99%. Then 𝝈 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏. Thus, 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟖.
𝑹
The desired error is 0.025. Since the range R = 12.8 – 12.4 = 0.4, then 𝝈 = = 𝟎. 𝟏
𝟒
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 ∙𝝈 𝟐 (𝟐.𝟓𝟖)(𝟎.𝟏) 𝟐 𝟎.𝟐𝟓𝟖 𝟐
𝒏= = = = (𝟏𝟎. 𝟑𝟐)𝟐 = 𝟏𝟎𝟔. 𝟓
𝑬 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟓
Round up the value to 107. So, The required sample size is 107.
Determining Formula 2
To determine the sample size for finding the confidence interval for a
proportion, the computing formula is also derived from the margin of
error.
ෝ𝒒
𝒑 ෝ
𝑬 = 𝒛𝜶/𝟐
𝒏
Finally, solving for n:
𝟐
ෝ ෝ
𝒑𝒒∙𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
𝒏= ෝ𝒒
𝒐𝒓 𝒏 = 𝒑 ෝ
𝑬𝟐 𝑬
Formula in Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed when
Estimating the Population Proportion
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
ෝ𝒒
𝒏=𝒑 ෝ
𝑬
In computing the sample size for estimating the population proportion,
there are two situations to bear in mind.
1. If some approximation of p is known, that value may be used in the
formula.
2. If no approximation is known, use p= 0.5. This value will result in a
sample size large enough to guarantee prediction, given the confidence
interval and the error of estimate. The reason that when p and q are
0.5 each, the product is at maximum.
Determining Sample Size Involving Proportions
EXAMPLE 1 DETERGENT X
Mary wants to know with 95% confidence, the proportion of households
who like to use detergent X. A previous survey showed that 42% like to
use detergent X. Mary likes to be accurate with 2% of the true population.
What sample size does Mary need?
Solution;
The computing formula is :
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
ෝ𝒒
𝒏=𝒑 ෝ
𝑬
The error E is pegged at 2 %, Thus 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
We substitute the values in the computing formula.
STEPS:
1. Determine the confidence level
95% confidence
2. Determine the confidence coefficient
With 95% confidence level , α = 0.05
So Z = 1.96
3. Determine the error E
E= 2% or 0.02
4. Determine p and q
The given proportion is 42 %
P = 0.42 so q = 1- 0.42 = 0.58
5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
ෝ𝒒
𝒏=𝒑 ෝ
𝑬
𝟏.𝟗𝟔 2
n= (0.42)(0.58) ( )
𝟎.𝟎𝟐
= (0.42) (0.58)( 9604)
= 2339.53 or 2340
Thus, Mary need a sample of 2340 respondents.
Determining Sample Size Involving Proportions
EXAMPLE 2 New
The Dean of a college wants to use the proportion of a population to
determine the sample size needed to interview regarding their thoughts
about the new school structure. She wants to be able to assert with a
probability 0.95 that her error will be at most 0.05. similar polls in the
past showed that 65% approved the new structure. How large sample
does the Dean need?
Solution:
The computing formula is :
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
ෝ𝒒
𝒏=𝒑 ෝ
𝑬
STEPS:
1. Determine the confidence level
95% confidence
2. Determine the confidence coefficient
With 95% confidence level , 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
3. Determine the error E
E= 5% or 0.05
4. Determine p and q
The given proportion is 65 %
P = 0.65 so q = 1- 0.65 = 0.35
5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
ෝ𝒒
𝒏=𝒑 ෝ
𝑬
𝟏.𝟗𝟔
n = (0.65)(0.35) ( )2
𝟎.𝟎𝟓
= (0.65) (0.35)( 1536.64)
= 349.58 or 350
The Dean needs a sample size of 350 respondents.
Exercises
𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝟐
1. Find given each of the following:
𝑬
a. 90% confidence, E = 0.01
b. 90% confidence, E = 0.02
c. 95% confidence, E = 0.15
d. 95% confidence, E = 0.08
e. 99% confidence, E = 0.05
2. Find the sample for each of the following :
a. 90% confidence, E = 0.08, 𝒑
ෝ = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟖
b. 95% confidence, E = 0.05, 𝒑
ෝ = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
c. 95% confidence, E = 0.12, 𝒑
ෝ = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎
d. 99% confidence, E = 0.20, 𝒑ෝ = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟖
e. 99% confidence, E = 0.25, 𝒑
ෝ = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟎
Exercises
3. A particular brand of coffee contains an average of 112 mg of caffeine per
cup with a standard deviation of 20mg . Joshua wants to investigate the
same to estimate the true population mean caffeine content correct to
within 5mg adopting 95% confidence. How many cups of the same brand of
coffee does he need for a sample.
4. In a gymnasium, a physical exercise has a mean length of 30mins. With a
standard deviation of 6 mins. A PE major wants to estimate the true mean
length of the exercise with minimum error pegged at 0.5 adopting the 95%
confidence interval. How many respondents does he need?
