Farm suicides, Unemployment and a flawed employability paradigm
In 16 years, farm suicides cross a quarter million.
[Link] The National Crime Records Bureaus latest report on Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India places the number for 2010 at 15,964. That brings the cumulative 16-year total from 1995 when the NCRB started recording farm suicide data to 2,56,913, the worst-ever recorded wave of suicides of this kind in human history. The data show clearly that the last eight years were much worse than the preceding eight. As many as 1,35,756 farmers killed themselves in the 2003-10 period. For 1995-2002, the total was 1,21,157. On average, this means the number of farmers killing themselves each year between 2003 and 2010 is 1,825 higher than the numbers that took their lives in the earlier period. Which is alarming since the total number of farmers is declining significantly. Compared to the 1991 Census, the 2001 Census saw a drop of over seven million in the population of cultivators (main workers). The corresponding census data for 2011 are yet to come in, but their population has surely dipped further. In other words, farm suicides are rising through the period of India's agrarian crisis, even as the number of farmers is shrinking. P. Sainath
40 Million Unemployed with an Unemployment Rate of 9.4%
[Link] For the first time ever the Bureau of Labour. Government of India has conducted a survey on employment unemployment, and has come up with an unemployment rate based on that. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) also calculates unemployment rates, but these surveys are done with a gap of 5 years, so there is a dire need to have unemployment numbers in between.
The survey was conducted in 28 States/UTs spread across the country in which about 99 per cent of the countrys population reside. It estimates that the population of the country is 1182 million with 63.5% in the working age of 15 59 years, however, not everyone who is in the working age is interested in joining the work force, so the worker population ratio is much lower. There are an estimated 238 million households, of which 172 million are rural and 66 million are urban. Out of the total population of the States/UTs covered, 872 million persons (73.8 per cent) live in rural areas and 310 million persons (26.2 per cent) live in urban areas. The overall unemployment rate is 9.4%, and it is split out as 10.1% in rural areas, and 7.3% in urban areas. Now, a key thing to remember about unemployment rate is that it is calculated as a percentage of labor force, and not the total population. So, this means that 9.4% of that part of population which is interested in working is unemployed, and not 9.4% of the entire population is unemployed. In the International Labour Conference (ILC) 2005, the discussion on youth employment concluded that there were many young workers who did not have access to decent work. A significant number of youth are underemployed, unemployed, seeking employment or between jobs, or working unacceptably long hours under informal, intermittent and insecure work arrangements, without the possibility of personal and professional development; working below their potential in low-paid, low-skilled jobs without prospects for career
advancement; trapped in involuntary part-time, temporary, casual or seasonal employment; and frequently under poor and precarious conditions in the informal economy, both in rural and urban areas (ILO, 2005a).
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Increase in the share of youth population due to demographic dividend or the youth bulge seems to be one of the sources of future economic growth in India. However, recent studies have shown that the poor employability of the workforce due to deficit in educational attainment and health may hamper the advantages due to demographic dividend. One of the most obvious economic implications of changes in the absolute and relative numbers of young people is in the youth labor market. The way in which the increasing youth population is absorbed into or adjusted in the labour market is a matter of concern. The concept of employability is gaining momentum in the labour market literature. It indicates the persons capability of gaining initial employment, maintaining employment and moving to new employment by choice. It depends on the knowledge, skills and attitudes possessed by the individual, and also the labour market information (Weinert at al 2001). There is a changing policy agenda related to labour market from the job protection to security through employability. The policy agenda needs to equip the job-seekers with skills that match the demand in the market. Trade liberalization is expected to improve exports which can generate employment. However, it depends on whether the benefits percolate to unskilled workers or skilled workers. The evidence seems to suggest that the employment in organized sector manufacturing has not improved much. India has not been able to take advantage of demographic dividend because of low education and skills. It is important to realize however that we can only reap this demographic dividend if we invest on human resource development and skill formation in a massive way and create productive employment for our relatively young working (Approach to 11th Five Year Plan). Problems in education are: (i) access to basic education for the unreached and social groups; (ii) qualitative improvement to raise learning achievements;(iii) tackling high drop-out and low retention. Universalization of elementary education alone will not suffice in the knowledge economy. Modern industry needs higher education. One good sign is that the 11th Plan increases allocation from 8% to 19% of gross budgetary support in education. Measures to improve employability have to be improved. Even educated find it hard to get jobs as skills are not approriate for the jobs. Improvements in skills and vocational training are needed. Universalization of elementary education alone will not suffice in the knowledge economy. A person with a mere 8 years of schooling will be as disadvantaged in a knowledge economy dominated by ICT as an illiterate person in modern industry and services. Secondary education is vital because it is in this age group that the child, particularly the girl child is extremely vulnerable and is pushed into child labour, early marriage or trafficking. The 11th Plan must therefore aim to progressively raise the minimum level of education to high school or Class X level. A major initiative for expanding secondary education up to class X, must be initiated in the 11th Plan and should include access to organized sports and games. However, the pace at which this expansion takes place will also depend on how quickly we can reduce the drop-out rates at the elementary stage. There are emerging signs that rapid growth can result in shortage of high quality skills
needed in knowledge intensive industries. One area of concern is that India is losing edge on the tracking of pure sciences. To continue competitive advantage and ensure a continuous supply of quality manpower, we need large investments in public sector institutions of higher learning. This should be accompanied by fundamental reform of the curriculum as well as service conditions to attract a dedicated and qualified faculty. Financial sector liberalisation led to decline in credit to agriculture sector, small and marginal farmers and weaker sections in the post-reform period. The micro credit movement is not a substitute for the agricultural credit by the banks (Shetty, 2003). Regarding international experience, a study by Pasha and Palanivel (2003) on Asian countries show that the
key macroeconomic determinants of the degree of pro-poor growth appear to be the rates of employment and agricultural growth. The study argues, given the inflation rates,
that countries can be more flexible in their policy stance with regard to the adoption of more growth oriented as opposed to stabilization policies. Developing countries should learn from China on agricultural growth, rural non-farm employment, public investment and human development (see Rao, 2005). The impact of growth on poverty reduction is quite significant in China.
