Chapter 3: Section 3.3 Two Basic Probability Rules Purpose: Introduce probabilty terminology for addition and multiplication rules. Course Objective: Compute the probability of compound events, independent events, disjoint events, as well as conditional probability. ‘Task: Watch the videos to fill in the guided notes. The Multiplication Rule (AND) It Aand B are two events defined on a sample space, then: 1. IfAand Bare indegarden P(A AND B) = P(A) * P(B). 2. IfAand Bare N ot independent P(A AND B) = P(B) * P(A|B) The Addition Rule (O#) ( Add) If A and B are defined on a sample space, then: 1. If AandB are mutually _ ey clucive P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(8) 2 I AandBare Not mutually exclusive P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B) EXAMPLE 3.14 Klaus is trying to choose where to go on vacation. His two choices are: A = New Zealand and B = Alaska. Klaus can only afford one vacation. The probability that he chooses A is P(A) = 0.6 and the probability that he chooses B is P(B) = 0.36. P(AANDB)= 0 — (400 events can’ happan ) Comckiall ercunive) P(AORB)= 0.6 + 0-35" = 4157. Created by Erin Susick for Introductory Statistics by Barbara lllowsky and Susan DeanEXAMPLE 3.15 Carlos plays college soccer. He makes a goal 65% of the time he shoots. Carlos is going to attempt two goals in a row in the next game. A = the event Carlos is successful on his first attempt. P(A) = 0.65. B = the event Carlos is successful on his second attempt. P(B) = 0.65. Carlos tends to shoot in streaks. The probability that he makes the second goal GIVEN that he made the first goal is 0.90. ‘a, What is the probability that he makes both goals? Plnod6) = pia) PCBIA) = o-b5(0-70) > 0-565 = 98°57 the first goal or the second goal? 1-30 —0:58S 2 +57 b. What is the probability that Carlos makes. P(novB) = p(A)+ p(B) — P (hand B) = = 065 + 0bS — 0-955 = Os c. Are A and B independent? pce). pcple) 0.65 ¢ 0:90 No “They axe not iadepe dent d. Are A and B mutually exclusive? not mute ly exclusive e@ p(Aanrd B) = 0.565 Give EXAMPLE'.16 5 P(N)? 720 A.community swim team has 150 Q vers Seventy-five of the members are advanced Swimmers, Forty-seven of the members are intermediate swimmers. The remainder are novice p(s) sc swimmers, Forty of the advanced swimmers pacts four times a week. Thirty of the A intermediate swimmers practice four times a week. Ten of the novice swimmers practice four times a week. Suppose one member of the swim team is chosen randomly. Nes Thay at (NN) © 7 a. Whatis the probabilty that the member is @ novice swimmer? pin) 28 2 14 o e (WA) ae 150 30 b. What is the probability that the member practices four times a week? b(yId) = ra): 40430410 PCH) = By say (a): & ' r \) _ \ ¢ Whats the probability that the member is an advanced swimmer and practices four times a 38 week? - 40 P(aand 4) = eo 8 2H Created by Erin Susick for Introductory Statistics by Barbara lliowsky and Susan DeanCc Cc 4. What is the probability that a member is an advanced swimmer and an intermediate swimmer? Are being an advanced swimmer and an intermediate swimmer mutually exclusive? Why or why not? P(Aend I) <0 jes ty cantt happen at tra sated aa! e. Are being a novice swimmer and practicing four times a week independent events? Why or why not? fea roam) No- Because the 7. ane not ag ual zw. 10 ‘ oe $0 Thay ao not vrdeperdlnt euerle 537. & otf EXAMPLE 3.17 Felicity attends Modesto JC in Modesto, CA. The probability that Felicity enrolls in a math class is 0.2 and the probability that she enrolls in a speech class is 0.65. The probability that she enrolls in a math class GIVEN that she enrolls in speech class is 0.25. PCM): ono PC) 0. P(M|\s) = 0.25 Let: M = math class, S = speech class, M|S = math given speech a. Whatis the probability that Felicity enrolls in math and speech? plan ond s) = PCS) POmis). =@-6E)CO 25) = 01625 b. What is the probability that Felicity enrolls in math or speech classes? Pm) + PCs) - p(Both) los (mow $) = c > o2tobs - © momen eaetie sl omia. c. Are Mand S independent? pcm) = PCmls) | No. They ane deperdent or #0 7F d. Are Mand S mutually exclusive? No. p( mond 5) -0,|b25 #° They one wot usb excdusve Created by Erin Susick for Introductory Statistics by Barbara lllowsky and Susan DeanEXAMPLE 3.18 iver " Studies show that about one woman in seven (approximately 14.3%) who live to be 90 will >») «0 N3 develop breast cancer. Suppose that of those women who develop breast cancer, a testis 3 egatve 2% of the time. Also suppose that in the general population of women, the test for (\\2) - 0:02 breast cancer is negative about 85% of the time. Let B= woman develops breast cancer and ) - get N= tests negative. Suppose one woman is selected at random. Nn): 0-85 pin a, What is the probability that the woman develops breast cancer? What is the probability that woman tests negative? P(B) = 0.143 (N) = 0¢5 b. Given that the woman has breast cancer, what is the probability that she tests negative? p(Nnied= 0-02 c. What is the probability that the woman has breast cancer AND tests negative? P(Band N) = P(BD- Po) e) = 0.0024 = (0-43) (0-02) = 024d 7- d. What is the probability that the woman has breast cancer or tests negative? pa) + P(N) - PC Bond ND osha + OFS - 0.0029 = 0:490! = 94-017 e, Are having breast cancer and testing negative independent events? PON) = PCNIB) oes $ 0.02 p(Born) = Ne tegen Spenlexl f. Are having breast cancer and testing negative mutually exclusive? P(Band N) = 0: 002% 4 0 No Thy ao not ally exclucve Criteria: Graded by completion. Submit your work on Blackboard. D Created by Erin Susick for Introductory Statistics by Barbara Illowsky and Susan Dean