Appendix 5.
Captives recorded and voyages with captives recorded in TASTDB-2010, and MCMC
P. Manning, et al., "Volume and Direction of the Atlantic Slave Trade, 1650s-1870s: Estimates by Markov Chain Mon
Summary of Tables: Table 5A summarizes therecorded or raw data--numbers of recorded voyages and the number
Table 5B compares the MCMC estimates of embarkations and arrivals with the recorded data in Table 5A.
Rows 25 to 37 and 51-52 have been added by Eltis and Lachance to show data correctly entered from TASTDB.
Table 5A. Captive and Voyage data from TASTDB-2010
1650s 1660s 1670s
Raw data: Captives recorded
Captives recorded as embarked (TSLAVESD) 24,669 8,397 7,333
Captives recorded as arrivals (SLAMIMP) 3,580 7,712 24,799
Raw data: Voyages with records of captives
Total voyages recorded per decade 228 208 353
Voyages with records of captives embarked 19 9 11
Percent of voyages by decade 8% 4% 3%
Voyages with records of captives disembarked 84 26 26
Percent of voyages by decade 37% 13% 7%
Raw data: Captives recorded
Captives recorded as embarked (TSLAVESD) 8,397 7,333 21,370
Captives recorded as arrivals (SLAARRIV) 7,712 24,799 24,822
Raw data: Voyages with records of captives
Total voyages recorded per decade 159 304 354
Voyages with records of captives embarked 26 26 63
Percent of voyages by decade 16% 9% 18%
Voyages with records of captives disembarked 26 108 109
Percent of voyages by decade 16% 36% 31%
Table 5B. MCMC estimates of captives compared with raw data
1650s 1660s 1670s
Embarkations
MCMC estimate of captives embarked 48,076 82,677 107,252
Embarkations: Captives recorded as % MCMC 51% 10% 7%
Arrivals
MCMC estimate of captives arrived 38,719 76,223 96,181
Arrivals: Captives recorded as % MCMC 9% 10% 26%
TASTDB embarkations (slaximp) 50,097 86,812 114,096
TASTDB arrivals (slamimp) 38,518 69,085 91,704
in TASTDB-2010, and MCMC estimates
0s: Estimates by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis," JWHI 2-3 (2015)
recorded voyages and the number of recorded captives.
ecorded data in Table 5A.
orrectly entered from TASTDB.
1680s 1690s 1700s 1710s 1720s 1730s 1740s
21,370 37,884 39,774 51,007 69,879 107,463 109,077
24,822 65,213 70,265 128,658 142,392 194,461 177,963
403 638 786 1,135 1,425 1,831 1,853
38 96 42 162 234 262 244
9% 15% 5% 14% 16% 14% 13%
63 140 100 147 238 342 313
16% 22% 13% 13% 17% 19% 17%
37,884 39,774 51,007 69,879 107,463 109,077 130,414
65,213 70,265 128,658 142,392 194,461 177,963 192,745
589 737 1,086 1,372 1,782 1,804 1,730
140 100 147 238 342 313 363
24% 14% 14% 17% 19% 17% 21%
267 261 563 699 763 634 685
45% 35% 52% 51% 43% 35% 40%
1680s 1690s 1700s 1710s 1720s 1730s 1740s
152,761 252,164 314,772 339,737 493,000 561,801 556,815
14% 15% 13% 15% 14% 19% 20%
154,426 249,801 323,370 336,084 502,790 524,090 535,738
16% 26% 22% 38% 28% 37% 33%
177,443 214,502 274,174 343,120 510,558 534,624 533,569
141,768 175,627 228,331 286,294 435,240 448,896 455,337
1750s 1760s 1770s 1780s 1790s 1800s 1810s
130,028 124,422 259,743 151,387 198,607 236,587 232,614
192,745 259,449 395,770 290,003 469,696 492,525 425,953
1,778 2,261 2,978 2,481 2,544 2,912 2,785
229 314 485 417 736 807 690
13% 14% 16% 17% 29% 28% 25%
362 481 893 484 624 838 695
20% 21% 30% 20% 25% 29% 25%
124,422 259,743 151,387 198,607 237,046 232,614 211,224
259,449 395,770 290,003 469,696 493,164 425,953 351,333
2,212 2,929 2,432 2,495 2,864 2,736 2,055
481 893 484 624 838 695 555
22% 30% 20% 25% 29% 25% 27%
1,126 1,708 1,138 1,627 1,836 1,687 1,163
51% 58% 47% 65% 64% 62% 57%
1750s 1760s 1770s 1780s 1790s 1800s 1810s
534,527 754,070 654,627 792,966 807,508 742,700 715,887
24% 17% 40% 19% 25% 32% 32%
559,372 719,009 645,743 738,038 784,746 707,191 654,125
34% 36% 61% 39% 60% 70% 65%
568,537 747,143 669,118 768,158 768,099 771,408 665,386
487,847 635,535 582,529 672,148 692,027 684,517 598,123
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s
211,224 438,225 81,524 82,281 42,427 15,168
351,333 479,882 248,434 307,833 127,205 43,447
2,104 2,340 1,510 1,518 460 172
681 1,005 278 186 29 15
32% 43% 18% 12% 6% 9%
555 1,110 218 191 72 24
26% 47% 14% 13% 16% 14%
438,225 81,524 82,281 42,427 15,168
479,882 248,434 307,833 127,205 43,447
2,291 1,461 1,469 411 123
1,110 218 191 72 24
48% 15% 13% 18% 20%
1,396 670 731 255 72
61% 46% 50% 62% 59%
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s
832,355 551,523 655,698 260,074 67,077
25% 79% 12% 32% 63%
761,962 530,405 586,655 190,337 72,255
46% 90% 42% 162% 176%
808,083 525,124 429,212 174,037 54,472
726,533 467,970 379,640 145,369 45,443
Total
2,681,090
4,924,140
34,703
6,989
20%
8,026
23%
2,657,266
4,921,199
33,395
7,943
24%
17,524
52%
Total
10,278,067
26%
9,787,260
50%
9,787,770
8,488,481
