Q52.
Suppose that an insurance company classifies people into
8a. What2 is the 2 7probability
8 flips?16
that the coin lands on heads Example Independent trials consisting of the flipping of a coin
one of three classes: good risks, average risks, and bad risks. The P (−1 )=P ( ( W 1 ∩O 2 ) ∪ ( O1 ∩ W 2 ) ) = × +
on exactly ×of the 10= having probability p of coming up heads are continually
company’s records indicate that the probabilities that good-,
average-, and bad-risk persons will be involved in an accident
14 13 14 13 91 errors on a page of a
Q54. The expected number of typographical
certain magazine is .2. What is the probability that the next page
performed until either a head occurs or a total of n flips is made. If
we let X denote the number of times the coin is flipped, then X is
6. The probability of both balls are orange :
over a 1-year span are, respectively, .05, .15, and .30. If 20 percent you read contains (a) 0 and (b) 2 or more typographical errors? a random variable taking on one of the values 1, 2, 3, ..., n with
of the population is a good risk, 50 percent an average risk, and 30 2 1 1 Explain your reasoning! respective probabilities:
percent a bad risk, what proportion of people have accidents in a P ( 0 )=P ( O 1 ∩O2 )= × = a. The probability of having 0 typographical errors on
fixed year? If policyholder had no accidents in 2012, what is the 14 13 91 the next page:
probability that he or she is a good risk? is an average risk? −0.2 0
Denote: e ( 0.2 ) −0.2
P(G): the probability of being a good risk = 0.2 P ( X=0 )= =e
P(A): the probability of being an average risk = 0.5 0!
P(B): the probability of being a bad risk = 0.3 b. The probability of having 2 or more typographical
P(accident | G): the probability of having an accident given that errors on the next page:
someone is a good risk = 0.05 −0.2 1
( 0.2 ) e
P(accident | A): the probability of having an accident given that
someone is an average risk = 0.15 =0.2 × e−0.2
P ( X=1 )=
P(accident | B): the probability of having an accident given that 1!
−0.2 −0.2
someone is a bad risk = 0.3
The proportion of people who have accidents in a fixed year is:
P ( X ≥2 )=1−e −0.2 ×e
Q57. State your assumptions. Suppose that the average number of
P ( accident ) =P (G ) × P ( accident|G ) + P ( A ) × P ( accident| A ) + P ( B ) × P ( accident|B )=
cars( 0.2× 0.05
abandoned ) +on( 0.5
weekly ×0.15
a certain highway)+is(2.2. ×0.3 )
0.3Approximate
= 0.175 the probability that there will be
a. no abandoned cars in the next week;
Q1. Two balls are chosen randomly from an urn containing 8 b. at least 2 abandoned cars in the next week.
white, 4 black, and 2 orange balls. Suppose that we win $2 for a. To find the probability of no abandoned cars in the next week
each black ball selected and we lose $1 for each white ball (P(X=0)):
a. We find that −λ 0
1 ( X=0 )= e λ =e =e
selected. Let X denote our winnings. What are the possible values
−λ −2.2
of X, and what are the probabilities associated with each value? 1 1 P
P ( X=1 )=P ( X ≤1 )−P ( X< 1 )= − =
2 b. To4 find4the probability of at 0least! 2 abandoned cars in the next
Denote:
B1: first ball selected is black
B2: second ball selected is black
W 1: first ball selected is white
11week (P(X
P ( X=2 )=P ( X ≤2 ) −P ( X <2 )= − +
1 ≥2−1
12 P2( X ≥2
2)):
(
=1/6
4 )=1−P ( X =0 )−P ( X =1 )
−λ 1
)
11 1
W 2 : second ball selected is white P ( X=3 )=P ( X ≤3 )−P ( X <3 ) =1− P = ( X=1 )= e λ =e−λ λ=e−2.2 ×2.2
O1: first ball selected is orange 2 12 1!
b. We find that
O 2: second ball selected is orange P X ≥2 =1−P ( X =0 )−P ( X =1 )=1−e−2.2−e−2.2 ×2.2
( )
( )
3 1 Find E[X], where X is the outcome when we roll a fair die.
Given: −1 consists of tossing 3 fair
( ) ( ) ( )
Example Suppose that our experiment
8 white balls 1 3 3 1 coins. If we let1 Y denote1 the number
2 of heads2appearing, 1 then Y is
4 black balls P < X < = lim P X ≤ − −P X≤ = + − =
2 orange balls 2 2 n→ ∞ 2 n respective probabilities.
2 2 4 4 2
a random variable taking on one of the values 0, 1, 2, 3 with
Possible value of X: Q35. A box contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. Two marbles are
1. If both balls are black: winnings = 2 + 2 = 4 withdrawn randomly. If they are the same color, then you win
2. If one ball is black and the other is white: winnings = $1.10; if they are different colors, then you win -$1.00. (That is,
2–1=1 you lose $1.00.) Calculate
3. If both balls are white: winnings = -1 – 1 = -2 a. the expected value of the amount you win;
4. If one ball is black and the other is orange: winnings b. the variance of the amount you win.
=2–0=2 Denote:
5. If one ball is white and the other is orange: winnings
= -1 – 0 = -1 pr : the probability of drawing two red marbles
6. If both balls are orange: winnings = 0
The probability of each value: pr : the probability of drawing two blue marbles
1. The probability of both balls being black:
prb : the probability of drawing one red marble and one blue A city has an experiment to test for a kind of Covid-19 vaccine
4 3 6 from participants. The participants are of two groups: 80% of
P ( 4 )=P ( B1 ∩ B2 ) = × = marble participants are vaccinated (group A) and 20% of participants did
14 13 91 5 4 2 not get the vaccine (group B). After testing for both groups, the
2. The probability of one ball being black and the other pr =
× = probability of “a positive result” for group A is 1% and is 6% for
being white: 10 9 9 group B. If a person gets “a positive result”, what is a probability
that she/he did not take the vaccine?
4 58 48 2 4 32 Let's denote the events as follows: 𝑉: A person is vaccinated
P ( 1 )=P ( ( B1 ∩W 2 ) ∪ ( W 1 ∩B 2) )= pb= × + × =× = (group A). ¬ 𝑉: A person is not vaccinated (group B). 𝑃: A person
14 10 9 913 91
13 14 gets a positive result.
5 5 5
( )
3. The probability of both balls being white:
8 7 28 prb =2 × × =
P (−2 )=P ( W 1 ∩W 2 ) = × = 10 9 9
14 13 91 a. Expected value (E):
4. The probability of one ball is black and the other is
orange:
E=¿
b. The variance of the amount one wins can be
computed by the standard expression for variance in
term of expectations. Specifically we have
× ( W=)=E [ W ]−E [ W ]
4 2 2 4 8 2 2
P ( 2 )=P ( ( B1 ∩O 2 ) ∪ ( O 1 ∩ B2 ) ) = × + Var
14 13 Now
14using13 91from part a above we see that
the results
4 2 5 82
E [ W ] = ( 1.1 ) + (−1.0 ) =
5. The probability of one ball is white and the other is 2 2
orange:
9 9 75
So that
( )
2
82 1 49
Var ( W )= − =
75 15 45
Q50. When coin 1 is flipped, it lands on heads with probability .4;
when coin 2 is flipped, it lands on heads with probability .7. One
of these coins is randomly chosen and flipped 10 times.
