alpha 0.37051924 beta 0.176308 Gamma 0.

62948068 MAE
Fiscal 1-alpha 0.6294807598 338
Year Quarters Unit sales u (baseline) v (slope) s (seasonality) Predicted error
Q1 1,788 0.5175857577
Q2 3,748 1.084961644
1999
Q3 5,115 1.480677377
Q4 3,167 3,454.50 0 0.9167752207
Q1 2,097 3,675.70 39.00 0.550896413 1,788.00 309
Q2 4,008 3,707.08 37.66 1.08257723 4,030.31 22
2000
Q3 5,532 3,741.55 37.09 1.479327129 5,544.75 13
Q4 3,123 3,640.76 12.78 0.8796441149 3,464.17 341
Q1 2,116 3,723.00 25.03 0.5618883414 2,012.72 103
Q2 3,523 3,565.09 -7.22 1.023165519 4,057.54 535
2001
Q3 5,921 3,722.61 21.82 1.549341217 5,263.24 658
Q4 3,374 3,778.22 27.78 0.88805901 3,293.76 80
Q1 2,352 3,946.76 52.60 0.5833183369 2,138.55 213
Q2 4,092 3,999.35 52.60 1.023165522 4,092.00 0
2002
Q3 6,824 4,182.56 75.62 1.601082132 6,277.85 546
Q4 3,968 4,335.99 89.34 0.9051009107 3,781.52 186
Q1 2,721 4,514.02 104.98 0.5955748207 2,581.37 140
Q2 4,449 4,518.69 87.29 0.998875663 4,726.00 277
2003
Q3 7,184 4,561.88 79.52 1.584531044 7,374.55 191
Q4 4,531 4,776.52 103.34 0.9324821868 4,200.93 330
Q1 3,029 4,956.18 116.80 0.6053830612 2,906.32 123
Q2 5,786 5,339.58 163.80 1.052211961 5,067.27 719
2004
Q3 9,451 5,674.25 193.93 1.635559404 8,720.27 731
Q4 4,231 5,375.08 106.99 0.8409991885 5,471.97 1241

Fiscal Predicted
Year Quarters Unit sales u (baseline) v (slope) s (seasonality) Predicted
Q1 4,120 5,972.47 193.45 0.6585422878 3,318.75
Q2 7,480 6,515.28 255.05 1.112552444 5,880.87
2005
Q3 9,341 6,377.90 185.86 1.527936412 9,316.22
Q4 5,983 6,767.69 221.81 0.8681008434 4,880.35
MSE
208684
error^2

PVB
95481 10000
498 9000
163 8000
116394 7000
10666
6000
285729
432649 5000
6438 4000
45561 3000
0 2000
298279 1000
34776
0
19495 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
76726
36309
108943
15050
516571
533962
1540000
1 22 23 24
 alpha 0.01 beta 0.01 Gamma 0.33056899 MAE MSE
Fiscal 1-alpha 0.99 10 145
Year Quarters Unit sales u (baseline) v (slope) s (seasonality) Predicted error error^2
Q1 36 1.309090909
Q2 43 1.563636364
1999
Q3 18 0.6545454545 50
Q4 13 27.50 0 0.4727272727
45
Q1 47 27.58 0.00 1.439597461 36.00 11 121
40
Q2 32 27.51 0.00 1.431217641 43.13 11 124
2000 35
Q3 34 27.76 0.00 0.8430762275 18.01 16 256
Q4 24 27.99 0.00 0.5998966584 13.12 11 118 30
Q1 21 27.86 0.00 1.212869903 40.30 19 373 25
Q2 45 27.90 0.00 1.491261012 39.88 5 26 20
2001 15
Q3 19 27.85 0.00 0.7898956391 23.53 5 20
Q4 38 28.21 0.01 0.8468900278 16.71 21 453 10
Q1 36 28.23 0.01 1.233474333 34.22 2 3 5
Q2 38 28.21 0.01 1.443580509 42.11 4 17 0
2002
Q3 28 28.29 0.01 0.8559675853 22.29 6 33 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Q4 43 28.52 0.01 1.065308299 23.96 19 362
Q1 42 28.59 0.01 1.311404074 35.19 7 46
Q2 27 28.50 0.01 1.279570321 41.28 14 204
2003
Q3 25 28.51 0.01 0.8628387765 24.40 1 0
Q4 11 28.34 0.01 0.84145116 30.39 19 376
Q1 22 28.23 0.01 1.135479234 37.18 15 230
Q2 26 28.16 0.01 1.161789365 36.13 10 103
2004
Q3 28 28.21 0.01 0.9057291193 24.30 4 14
Q4 29 28.28 0.01 0.9023065597 23.74 5 28

Fiscal Predicted
Year Quarters Unit sales u (baseline) v (slope) s (seasonality) Predicted
Q1 43 28.38 0.01 1.260983857 32.12
Q2 51 28.54 0.01 1.368393187 32.87
2005
Q3 51 28.83 0.01 1.191104043 25.63
Q4 51 29.12 0.01 1.183014004 25.54
 Fire valve

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Wilkins regulator division unit sales per week by quarter
History through Q4 2004 Forecast Beginning Q1 2005
Revised October 7, 2004 Final File: FCSTMASTER
Prod Fiscal Year
Line Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PVB 1999 1,788 3,748 5,115 3,167 179,634
2000 2,097 4,008 5,532 3,123 191,880
2001 2,116 3,523 5,921 3,374 194,136
2002 2,352 4,092 6,824 3,968 224,072
2003 2,721 4,449 7,184 4,531 245,506
2004 3,029 5,786 9,451 4,231 292,465
2005 4,120 7,480 9,341 5,983 350,012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

FIRE 1999 36 43 18 13 1,432

VALVE 2000 47 32 34 24 1,777
2001 21 45 19 38 1,608
2002 36 38 28 43 1,886
2003 42 27 25 11 1,357
2004 22 26 28 29 1,371
2005 43 51 51 51 2,550
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
 Fire Fire Fire Fire Fire
PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB Valve Valve Valve Valve Valve
Year Qtr 12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420 Total Z2105 Z3000 Z3000IL Z3004 Z3004IL

2001 1 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842 27,512 122 77 1 20 50

2001 2 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050 45,798 139 240 - 144 67
2001 3 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736 76,968 54 138 3 25 32
2001 4 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414 43,858 78 275 36 59 49
2002 1 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536 30,580 18 301 (35) 48 132
2002 2 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740 53,198 224 133 - 35 103
2002 3 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454 88,704 138 175 - 15 42
2002 4 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676 51,590 193 251 10 50 63
2003 1 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948 35,372 124 213 2 32 170
2003 2 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424 57,840 112 150 3 46 40
2003 3 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666 93,388 25 64 139 26 77
2003 4 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754 58,906 37 57 3 18 22
2004 1 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609 39,382 79 108 49 23 26
2004 2 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049 75,219 71 105 52 26 90
2004 3 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676 122,868 68 151 2 62 77
2004 4 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976 54,996 54 114 84 44 86
2005 1 6,235 28,020 11,163 384 2,357 48,159 85 199 140 66 90
Total

270
590
252
497
464
495
370
557
541
351
331
137
285
344
360
382
580
 2001 2002 2003 2004 average SI Seasonality Removed Unadjusted
1 27,512 30,580 35,372 39,382 33,212 55.57% 2001 2002 2003 2004
2 45,798 53,198 57,840 75,219 58,014 97.08% 1 4,706.57 30,580 35,372
3 76,968 88,704 93,388 122,868 95,482 159.77% 2 45,798 53,198 57,840
4 43,858 51,590 58,906 54,996 52,338 87.58% 3 76,968 88,704 93,388
194,136 224,072 245,506 292,465 59,761 4 43,858 51,590 58,906
194,136 224,072 245,506
Detrended forecast
 Forecast
12-mth
Part Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 1,400/day
09/28/03 01/04/04 04/04/04 07/04/04
01/04/04 04/03/04 07/03/04 10/02/04

12-720 4,311 6,637 7,823 6,652 8.70% 10.60% 37,100

34-720 10,214 20,983 27,492 19,535 26.70% 25.10% 87,850
1-720 13,851 31,507 66,644 17,337 44.20% 44.10% 154,350
34-420 7,397 9,043 11,233 7,496 12.00% 12.00% 42,000
1-420 3,609 7,049 9,676 3,976 8.30% 8.20% 28,700

Total 39,382 75,219 122,868 54,996 100.00% 100 350,000

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 615 1,157 1,920 873 1,400

Total 292,463 350,000

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 1,142 1,400
 Forecast
12-mth
Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
Part No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 10.2/day
9/28/2003 1/4/2004 4/4/2004 7/4/2004
1/4/2004 4/3/2004 7/3/2004 10/2/2004

Z2105 79 71 68 54 19.8% 21.2% 540

Z3000 108 105 151 114 34.9% 38.8% 990
Z3000IL 49 52 2 84 13.6% 11.8% 300
Z3004 23 26 62 44 11.3% 8.2% 210
Z3004IL 26 90 77 86 20.4% 20.0% 510

Total 285 344 360 382 100.0% 100.0% 2,550

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 4 5 6 6 10

Total 1,371 2,550

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 5 10
Unemployment Rate

Oct-00 3.9 Q1 2001 3.90 7

Nov-00 3.9 Q2 2001 4.23 6
Dec-00 3.9 Q3 2001 4.40 5
Jan-01 4.2 Q4 2001 4.83 4
Feb-01 4.2 Q1 2002 5.53 3
Mar-01 4.3 Q2 2002 5.70

Oct-00
Dec-00
Feb-01
Apr-01
Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03
Jun-03
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
Column B
Apr-01 4.4 Q3 2002 5.83
May-01 4.3 Q4 2002 5.73
Jun-01 4.5 Q1 2003 5.87
Jul-01 4.6 Q2 2003 5.83
Aug-01 4.9 Q3 2003 6.13
Sep-01 5.0 Q4 2003 6.13
Oct-01 5.3 Q1 2004 5.87
Nov-01 5.6 Q2 2004 5.67
Dec-01 5.7 Q3 2004 5.57
Jan-02 5.7 Q4 2004 5.43 United States Unemployment Rate
Feb-02 5.7 Q1 2004 5.43
Mar-02 5.7
Apr-02 5.9 4
May-02 5.8 2
Jun-02 5.8
0
Jul-02 5.8 Column E
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Aug-02 5.7 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Sep-02 5.7 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Oct-02 5.7
Nov-02 5.9
Dec-02 6.0
Jan-03 5.8
Feb-03 5.9
Mar-03 5.8
Apr-03 6.0
May-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3
Jul-03 6.2
Aug-03 6.1
Sep-03 6.1
Oct-03 6.0
Nov-03 5.9
Dec-03 5.7
Jan-04 5.7
Feb-04 5.6
Mar-04 5.7
Apr-04 5.5
May-04 5.6
Jun-04 5.6
Jul-04 5.5
Aug-04 5.4
Sep-04 5.4
Oct-04 5.5
Nov-04 5.4
Dec-04 5.4
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04

Column B

ate

Column E
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
200 200 200 200 200 200
3 4 4 4 4 4
Bank Prime Loan

Oct-00 9.50 Q1 2001 9.50 10

Nov-00 9.50 Q2 2001 8.62 9
Dec-00 9.50 Q3 2001 7.34 8
Jan-01 9.05 Q4 2001 6.57 7
Feb-01 8.50 Q1 2002 5.16 6
Mar-01 8.32 Q2 2002 4.75
5
Apr-01 7.80 Q3 2002 4.75
May-01 7.24 Q4 2002 4.75 4 Column B
Jun-01 6.98 Q1 2003 4.45 3

Oct-00
Dec-00
Feb-01
Apr-01
Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03
Jun-03
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
Jul-01 6.75 Q2 2003 4.25
Aug-01 6.67 Q3 2003 4.24
Sep-01 6.28 Q4 2003 4.00
Oct-01 5.53 Q1 2004 4.00
Nov-01 5.10 Q2 2004 4.00
Dec-01 4.84 Q3 2004 4.00
Jan-02 4.75 Q4 2004 4.42
Feb-02 4.75 Q1 2004 4.94
Mar-02 4.75
Apr-02 4.75 Average Quarterly Rate of
May-02 4.75 Interest in Money and Capital Markets
Jun-02 4.75
Jul-02 4.75
Aug-02 4.75 Bank Prime Loan Rate
Sep-02 4.75 10
Oct-02 4.75
Nov-02 4.35 0
Column E
Dec-02 4.25 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Jan-03 4.25 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Feb-03 4.25 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Mar-03 4.25
Apr-03 4.25
May-03 4.25
 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Bank Pri
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4

Jun-03 4.22
Jul-03 4.00
Aug-03 4.00
Sep-03 4.00
Oct-03 4.00
Nov-03 4.00
Dec-03 4.00
Jan-04 4.00
Feb-04 4.00
Mar-04 4.00
Apr-04 4.00
May-04 4.00
Jun-04 4.01
Jul-04 4.25
Aug-04 4.43
Sep-04 4.58
Oct-04 4.75
Nov-04 4.93
Dec-04 5.15
 Column B
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04

Column E
4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 200 200 200 200 200
4 4 4 4 4
4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 200 200 200 200 200
4 4 4 4 4
 Housing Starts

Single UnitMulti-UnitTotal
1 Oct-00 275 82 357
2 Jan-01 274 74 348
3 Apr-01 374 87 461
4 Jul-01 341 88 429
5 Oct-01 285 81 366
6 Jan-02 293 76 369
7 Apr-02 386 89 475
8 Jul-02 361 98 459
9 Oct-02 319 84 403
10 Jan-03 304 71 375
11 Apr-03 406 84 490
12 Jul-03 412 99 511
13 Oct-03 377 95 472
14 Jan-04 345 80 425
15 Apr-04 456 84 540
16 Jul-04 440 92 532
17 Oct-04 370 90 460