Explanatory Notes
July 2023 | Edition: 2024
World Analysis
Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
Contents
Explanatory Notes 3
Preface 3
Online Resources 3
– Chemical Market Analytics website 3
– Excel supply/demand graph files 4
– Chemical supply/demand database 4
– Chemical capacity 5
Data Sources 7
World Regions 8
Supply/Demand Balances 8
– Objectives 8
– Capacity 9
– Production 10
– Imports and Exports 10
– Net Inventory 10
– Units of Measure 10
INCOTERMS® - Shipping Terms 10
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
Explanatory Notes
Preface
This section outlines the general methodology and assumptions inherent in the development of the data in
addition to key terminology contained in the World Analysis service. If questions still arise regarding the
information or use of information in the analysis, tables, or calculations, please contact Chemical Market
Analytics at [email protected].
Online Resources
In an effort to provide improved client service and data support, Chemical Market Analytics continues to
expand the online resources for clients of the World Analysis service. Clients have access to the information
listed below for the World Analysis for one year from the date of purchase:
• Report in Adobe® PDF format *
• Appendix in Microsoft® Excel® format
• Regional supply/demand graphics in Excel format
• Quarterly price, cost, and margin updates for major regions in Excel format with forecasts extended to 2050*
• Global trade grids for last and current year, 5-year, and 10th year forecasts by region and country/territory
• World Analysis Tool, an interactive visualization dashboard for capacity, capacity integration*,
supply/demand, price/cost/margin* and trade data. The dashboard contents can be downloaded in image,
PDF and PowerPoint format.
• Online capacity and supply/demand data through 2050 with export options into Excel (static and
refreshable) and CSV
* Not available with all World Analyses
All World Analysis deliverables will be available on the Chemical Market Analytics website. Details on the
locations and functionality of the online databases and World Analysis files are provided below.
Chemical Market Analytics website
All chapters of the World Analysis that include text sections are available in searchable HTML format online.
The text sections and associated PDF and Excel files are available under the Chemical tab from the main menu
under World Analysis. Two generic World Analysis publications, including Energy & Economy and Explanatory
Notes, are posted as separate files.
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
Excel supply/demand graph files
Clients can download the regional supply/demand data in MS Excel along with the standard graphics contained
in the study. Files are available under the World Analysis tab on the Navigation page (see below) and also the
Report page together with the HTML text sections. To access, just select the MS Excel icon, shown as a green
box with an “x,” and a list of available files will appear for selection.
Clients can access formatted Supply/Demand tables by selecting the option under the Tools section on the
main Chemical menu.
Chemical supply/demand database
The database includes access to the supply/demand data included in the World Analysis, and one update, which
will be delivered in the first quarter of 2024. Clients can access this database online under the main Chemical
tab by selecting Chemical Supply & Demand under Data Browser (in the Tools section). For the products
included in the World Analysis, the following data is available to view and download into a MS Excel
spreadsheet on a country/territory, regional, and global level:
• Nameplate and hypothetical capacity
• Operating rates
• Production and total supply
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
• Trade (imports/exports)
• Domestic and total demand
• Historical and base year inventory changes
Additional functionality available to clients in the online Data Browser includes filtering, sorting, grouping,
and table configuration, including the selection of specific time periods.
Chemical capacity
The chemical capacity database is continuously updated with new and relevant plant and capital project
information. Clients can access this database via the Chemical Capacity links on the main Chemical menu
shown below. For the products and primary derivatives covered in the World Analysis, the following data is
available to view or download into a MS Excel spreadsheet:
• Historical and forecast production capacities for every country/territory, company, and location
• Historical and future capacity expansions, closures, and company name changes
Enhanced functionality in the Data Browser allows for the selection of more specific data parameters with
additional display and download options.
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
Clients can access formatted capacity tables by selecting the option from the Data Browser section (under
Tools) of the main Chemical Menu.
Capacity integration tables and top producer and consumer lists as well as top surplus and deficit lists on both
company and shareholder basis are available in the Capacity section under the Tools column on the Chemical
tab. Configuration of the tables can be adjusted for base year, geography, companies and shareholders, and
capacity unit measures.
An example of the online view of the capacity integration tables is shown below. Data can be aggregated at the
country/territory and region level. Check the “Show Derivative” box above the table to see consumption by
derivative detail. A multiyear and flat file option is available when exporting the data table into Excel.
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
An example of the online view of the capacity top list tables is shown below. Data at the country/territory and
region level for top producer, consumer, surplus, and deficit is available as well. The base year can be moved
back into history or forward into the future.
Data Sources
The World Analysis contains information obtained from various sources. The basic capacity data has evolved
over a period of years and is updated as changes occur. Generally, this information is verified through
discussions with representatives of the companies listed in the capacity tables during personal visits to their
offices or during meetings at other venues. The statistics regarding production, imports, and exports for several
of the larger industrialized countries or territories are generally obtained from government sources or trade
associations. Chemical Market Analytics has formed opinions by utilizing industry-based estimates to
complement the data for countries or territories that have smaller markets or are problematic to analyze.
Chemical Market Analytics personnel from around the world also meets with companies in various regions
that are known to have business activities within the areas where data can be difficult to obtain or requires
further verification. Where there are known or suspected inconsistencies or errors in published data,
corrections are made using Chemical Market Analytics best estimates. Therefore, the materials and analysis
presented herein are strictly the opinion of Chemical Market Analytics and are based on information collected
within the public sector or assessments by Chemical Market Analytics staff.
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
World Regions
All analysis is performed on a country or territory basis, except in the case of West Europe. The Chemical
Market Analytics region of “West Europe” consists of the European Union countries, plus the United
Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland. For the purpose of the World Analysis, China Mainland, Hong Kong SAR,
and Taiwan are shown separately. Countries and territories without production capacity or meaningful trade of
the products under study in the World Analysis are either excluded entirely or combined in an “Other”
category for the region (i.e., Other South America). Summing the country and territory data, therefore,
generates both regional and global aggregates. Chemical Market Analytics generates summations and analysis
for 10 major regional markets: North America, South America, West Europe, Central Europe, the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Baltic states, Africa, the Middle East, Northeast Asia,
Southeast Asia, and the Indian subcontinent. A list of the 10 regions, the countries, and territories included
therein and their abbreviations is shown below.
Note: The countries included in West Europe have been combined as far as supply, demand, exports, and
imports are concerned. West Europe capacity information is still reported on a country-by-country basis in the
World Analysis including a breakdown of individual production units.
Supply/Demand Balances
Objectives
Chemical Market Analytics approach is consistent with the objective of focusing primarily on the needs of
those directly engaged in optimizing their returns regarding the businesses producing or consuming the
products under study and generating and maintaining a 5- to 10-year or longer-term strategic planning horizon.
Various calculations regarding the salient attributes of the data contained in the balances are included.
Percentage average annual growth rates (%AAGRs) are shown for 5- and 10-year increments, allowing for easy
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
comparison of the average annual rate of change during the historical and forecast years. In general, capacity
projects have planning and construction lead times of about three to five years. However, Chemical Market
Analytics has provided its opinion of capacity additions beyond the 5-year horizon, shown as “hypothetical
capacity” in the supply/demand tables. Furthermore, the impact of economic growth (GDP) and end-use
industry projections are incorporated into the demand forecast.
Owing to the rapidly changing business environment in the chemical industry, it is difficult to capture the
most up-to-date dynamics in the marketplace. Therefore, it is important to use this study in the proper way. In
presenting projections of future capacity, trade, supply, and demand volumes, we essentially state what we
believe to be the most probable future scenarios as of the date of publication. The most likely or probable case
is, of course, sensitive to alternative assumptions. Furthermore, market conditions change constantly. The
data contained in this World Analysis has been “frozen” to reflect conditions estimated for the balance of the
base year and future years, including the economic, industry, and supply/demand outlook. Subsequent data
revisions from official sources and major changes in the market environment after the World Analysis has been
published may alter some of the conclusions presented in this analysis. However, these changes will be
included in the biannual update of the supply/demand balances that will be published in March 2024.
Capacity
The capacity data presented in the country and regional supply/demand balances and the capacity data shown
in the World Analysis capacity tables are frozen snapshots from the Chemical Market Analytics chemical
capacity database. Clients have online access to the capacity data included in the World Analysis, where the
most recent update of the capacity data is available. Please refer to the Online Resources section for more
detailed information.
As noted previously, the basic capacity data has evolved over a period of years and is continuously updated as
new information becomes available. Generally, this information is verified through discussions with
representatives of the companies that are listed in the capacity tables during personal visits to their offices or
during meetings at other venues.
The capacity figures are intended to represent the annual nameplate or rated production capability of a unit,
excluding the effect of scheduled maintenance outages or turnarounds. Therefore, when a facility is shut
down or run at reduced operating rates for maintenance, inventory control, or other business reasons, no
adjustment in capacity is shown. Generally, production units can exceed their nameplate capacity for short
periods of time. Likewise, the number of days each unit is out of service during planned or unplanned outages
can vary greatly from one year to the next.
When changes in capacity are occurring during a particular year, the capacity numbers in the capacity tables
are shown on a prorated basis. For example, if a new unit with a nameplate capacity of 100,000 metric tons per
year is expected to begin operation in early October, then the number shown for that year would be 25,000
metric tons, and the capacity for the next (full) year of operation would be 100,000 metric tons. No attempt is
made to reflect any startup difficulties by adjusting the capacity downward for early operating years (that
judgment is left to the client of the World Analysis).
If a facility is shut down and left in standby condition for an extended period, but, if necessary, can be restarted
in a reasonably short time period, the capacity is shown as 0 in the capacity table and is not included in the
capacity totals. In the case of an accident or other event that will result in a closure for a period of one year or
more, the capacity is also shown as 0. Units that are dismantled are removed from future years, leaving history
intact.
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
Production
The historical production volumes for many of the larger markets are generally obtained from government
sources or trade associations. Chemical Market Analytics has formed opinions by utilizing industry-based
estimates to complement the data for countries or territories with smaller markets or that are problematic to
analyze. Future production is based on Chemical Market Analytics forecasts of the amount of product that
must be produced for any given year to meet the anticipated demand arising from direct domestic
consumption and/or exports (if any). Future production levels are adjusted to reflect anticipated operating
rates that may be impacted by capacity additions and the level of imports coming into the country or territory.
Production levels, therefore, are reflective of the amount of capacity available to produce the products in
question and the competitive position of the country or territory under study, as low-cost producers are
generally given export preference in the supply/demand balances.
Imports and Exports
Chemical Market Analytics includes imports and exports as an important component of the supply/demand
balances. Some of the trade flows are between countries or territories within the same region. Note that the
regional import and export totals are the summation of all national trade volumes and therefore include
shipments to other countries or territories within the same region. The difference between imports and
exports indicates the net trade position of a country, territory, or region, which is represented in net export
terms, so that net exporters show a positive net trade balance and net importers show a negative net trade
balance. Chemical Market Analytics utilizes global cost curves and other competitive production analyses to
determine a country’s or a territory’s export position or the amount of imports that will likely enter a country
or territory in any given year. Particularly during periods of global surplus capacity, preference is given to low-
cost producers, as they will prevail in a more competitive international market environment.
Net Inventory
One of the last items in the supply and demand tables is a “net inventory” balance that can be either positive or
negative for the historical study period. This inventory balance represents physical increases (+) or decreases (-)
in inventories, product at sea, or just minor inconsistencies in the data being utilized. In the forecast years, the
net inventory change is set to zero by balancing total supply (production plus imports) with total demand
(consumption plus exports).
Units of Measure
Unless specifically noted, any data measured in units of weight presented in the supply/demand, capacity, and
trade tables will be presented in standard metric tons (1 metric ton equals to 1,000 kilograms, or 2,204.6
pounds). Any inadvertent text reference to tonnes or tons implies standard metric tons unless otherwise
noted.
INCOTERMS® - Shipping Terms
FOB: FREE ON BOARD (… named port of shipment) See note below
FAS: FREE ALONGSIDE SHIP (…named port of shipment)
CFR: COST AND FREIGHT (… named port of destination)
CIF: COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (… named port of destination)
EXW: EX WORKS (… named place of delivery)
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Chemical Market Analytics | Explanatory Notes
FCA: FREE CARRIER (… named place of delivery)
CPT: CARRIAGE PAID TO (…named place of destination)
CIP: CARRIAGE AND INSURANCE PAID TO (…named place of destination)
DPU: DELIVERED AT PLACE UNLOADED (…named terminal at port or place of destination)
DAP: DELIVERED AT PLACE (…named place of destination)
DDP: DELIVERED DUTY PAID (…named place of destination)
NOTE: The terms used in this analysis are defined by INCOTERMS® 2020 unless otherwise specified. Some
terms, such as FOB, have alternate definitions. For example, FOB is commonly used in the US as defined by the
old Uniform Commercial Code.
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