Information Asymmetry, R&D, and Insider Gains: David Aboody and Baruch Lev
Information Asymmetry, R&D, and Insider Gains: David Aboody and Baruch Lev
2000
ABSTRACT
Although researchers have documented gains from insider trading, the sources of
private information leading to information asymmetry and insider gains have not
been comprehensively investigated. We focus on research and development ~R&D!—an
increasingly important yet poorly disclosed productive input—as a potential source
of insider gains. Our findings, for the period from 1985 to 1997 indicate that in-
sider gains in R&D-intensive firms are substantially larger than insider gains in
firms without R&D. Insiders also take advantage of information on planned changes
in R&D budgets. R&D is thus a major contributor to information asymmetry and
insider gains, raising issues concerning management compensation, incentives, and
disclosure policies.
* University of California at Los Angeles and New York University, respectively. We are
grateful for the comments and suggestions made by Yakov Amihud, Jennifer Carpenter, Ken
Garbade, Dan Givoly, Kose John, Eli Ofek, and David Ravia.
1
Estimates of the gains from insider trading vary widely: Early studies ~e.g., Lorie and
Niederhoffer ~1968!, Jaffe ~1974!, and Finnerty ~1976!! report abnormal gains ranging from 3 to
30 percent, for holding periods of up to three years. Seyhun ~1986!, using data on insider
trading reported to the SEC during 1975 through 1981, finds more modest gains to insiders:
Over 300 days subsequent to trade, the average risk-adjusted gains were 4.3 percent for stock
purchasers and 2.2 percent for sellers. Most of these gains occurred during the first 100 days
after trade. In a subsequent study, Seyhun ~1992! documents for the period from 1975 to 1989
average abnormal returns to insiders of 2.6 percent for six months after stock purchases, and
5.3 percent for six months following sales. Jeng, Metrick, and Zeckhuser ~1999!, using value-
weighted portfolio schemes for the period from 1975 to 1996, report for a one year holding
period insider gains on purchases of roughly 0.4 percent abnormal returns per month and
insignificant abnormal returns for sales.
2747
2748 The Journal of Finance
2
See Fried ~1998! for a summary of the debate about the social consequences of insider gains
and the effectiveness of securities regulations aimed at limiting these gains. The spectrum of
opinions about social consequences ranges from viewing insider trading as desirable ~e.g., it
enhances market efficiency! to viewing insider gains as detrimental to firms ~increase cost of
capital, distort managerial incentives! and eroding investors’ confidence in the integrity of
capital markets. See also Jeng et al. ~1999! who conclude that under the current regulatory
system outsiders are not significantly disadvantaged when trading with insiders.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2749
Given the relative scarcity of public information about firms’ R&D activ-
ities, and the importance of these activities to the operations and profit
potential of technology and science-based companies, we hypothesize that
R&D contributes to information asymmetry between corporate insiders and
outside investors and that some of the former will exploit this asymmetry to
gain from insider trading.3 Indeed we find from comprehensive data on cor-
porate officers’ share trading from 1985 to 1997 that insider gains in firms
conducting R&D ~R&D firms! are substantially larger than insider gains in
firms with no R&D activities ~No-R&D firms!. These differences in insider
gains are both statistically and economically significant, and hold after con-
trolling for various known risk factors. We also find that investors’ reaction
to the public disclosure of insiders’ trade ~about a month, on average, after
the trade! is stronger for R&D firms than for No-R&D firms, corroborating
our hypothesis that R&D activities enhance information asymmetry, and
that this asymmetry is not eliminated by insiders’ trade and investors’ in-
formation search. We thus identify R&D as a major contributor to informa-
tion asymmetry.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section I we develop our hypothesis
and in Section II we describe the sample and summary statistics. Section III
presents the estimation equations and reports empirical findings on the as-
sociation between insider gains and firms’ R&D intensity. In Section IV we
examine investors’ reaction to the public disclosure of insider trades, and in
Section V we present robustness tests. Section VI concludes the study.
3
A perspective on the importance of R&D as a productive input can be gained from the
fact that in 1997 total R&D spending in the United States was $210 billion, compared with
$215 billion invested by manufacturing firms in property, plant, and equipment. The increas-
ing importance of R&D is also ref lected by its faster growth rate compared with other major
inputs. For example, over the period from 1970 to 1997, the average annual growth rate of R&D
was 8.0 percent, whereas the growth rate of capital investment ~property, plant, and equip-
ment! was 6.8 percent ~see Economic Report of the President, 1997, and National Science
Foundation0SRS: Research and Development Performance by Sector!.
2750 The Journal of Finance
properties, for example, will exert a strong common effect on the property
values of all real estate companies operating in a given geographical region.
Similarly, interest-rate changes will affect systematically the values of bond
and stock portfolios of companies. Thus, we argue, the relative uniqueness of
R&D investments makes it difficult for outsiders to learn about the produc-
tivity and value of a given firm’s R&D from the performance and products of
other firms in the industry, thereby contributing to information asymmetry.4
The absence of organized markets in R&D further contributes to informa-
tion asymmetry. Whereas investors can derive considerable information from
prices of traded tangible and financial assets concerning their values at the
firm level ~e.g., inferring from changes in commodity prices about swings in
values of firms’ inventories!, there is no direct price-based information on
firm-specific changes in the value and productivity of R&D.5 Some informa-
tion on R&D can, of course, be inferred from stock prices of R&D-intensive
companies, yet such information is noisy, given the multiple activities of
R&D firms ~e.g., manufacturing, services!.
Accounting rules exacerbate the information asymmetries associated with
R&D. Most financial assets have to be marked-to-market in quarterly and
annual financial reports, and impairments in the values of tangible assets
~i.e., when expected future benefits fall short of book values! have to be
routinely reported in financial statements. Similarly, inventories and ac-
counts receivable have to be written down in financial reports to market
values. Thus, investors are periodically informed about changes in the val-
ues of most tangible and financial assets. In contrast, R&D expenditures are
uniformly expensed in financial reports and therefore no information is re-
quired to be provided to outsiders about changes in the productivity and
value of R&D. Even major R&D events, such as when a drug under devel-
opment successfully passes clinical tests, are not routinely reported to
investors.
Empirical evidence is consistent with a relatively large information asym-
metry associated with R&D. For example, Barth, Kasznik, and McNichols
~1998! report that analyst coverage ~number of analysts following a firm! is
significantly larger for firms intensive in R&D relative to firms with lower
or no R&D, presumably because of the private information concerning R&D
4
The uniqueness of R&D is widely recognized in economics and finance research. Thus, for
example, Titman and Wessels ~1988, p. 5! postulate that asset uniqueness is a determinant of
corporate capital structure and measure uniqueness by R&D intensity, arguing that R&D “mea-
sures uniqueness because firms that sell products with close substitutes are likely to do less
research and development since their innovations can be more easily duplicated. In addition,
successful research and development projects lead to new products that differ from those ex-
isting in the market.”
5
Griliches ~1995, p. 77! notes: “A piece of equipment is sold and can be resold at a market
price. The results of research and development investments are by and large not sold directly
. . . the lack of direct measures of research and development output introduces an inescapable
layer of inexactitude and randomness into our formulation.” Such randomness and inexactitude
are obviously less severe to insiders than to outsiders.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2751
6
Analysts’ efforts were proxied by Barth et al. ~1998! by the number of other firms followed
by a given firm’s analysts. Assuming that analysts have a common capacity limit and expend
efforts up to that capacity, the smaller the number of firms an analyst follows, the larger, on
average, the efforts spent analyzing those firms.
7
Tasker ~1998b! also reports that the majority of questions raised by analysts in conference
calls involve R&D-related issues, such as the content of the company’s product pipeline.
8
Kyle’s ~1985! predictions are sensitive to the number of informed traders. For example,
Back, Cao, and Willard ~1999! conclude: “Competition may or may not lead to greater ‘effi-
ciency’ of prices. Whether the market price ref lects private information more quickly when
there are competing informed traders depends on how the information is distributed among the
agents. Indeed, in this model, it is never the case that the market is always more efficient when
information is distributed among competing traders than when the information is possessed by
a single trader” ~p. 30!. “A somewhat surprising result is that, beyond some date, the market
would have learned more from a monopolist informed trader than from competing traders,
regardless of the correlation of the competitors’ signals” ~p. 2!. “The relatively large amount of
private information remaining near the end of trading leads to an extreme adverse selection
problem” ~p. 3!.
2752 The Journal of Finance
9
The enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 was considerably strengthened
by the Insider Trading Sanctions Act of 1984 ~see Bainbridge ~1998!!, providing a reason to
start the sample period in 1985.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2753
10
The database we use includes several types of transactions we did not consider because it
is not clear to what extent they are motivated by inside information. These transactions in-
clude: Acquisition of stocks through company plans, gifts of stocks, acquisitions through divi-
dend reinvestment plans and under employee benefit plans. Examples of nonofficer insiders we
exclude from the sample are various trustees and owners without managerial capacity.
2754
Table I
Distribution of Insider Transactions and Market-Adjusted Returns, January 1985–December 1997
All means and medians in Panel B are significantly different from zero at the one percent level and significantly different between R&D and
No-R&D firms at the five percent level. Market adjusted returns are the raw returns minus the return on a value weighted NYSE0AMEX0
Nasdaq index. No-R&D firms are those for which COMPUSTAT does not report R&D expenditures in any quarter during 1985 to 1997.
Jan. 1985–Dec. 1989 Jan. 1990–Dec. 1993 Jan. 1994–Dec. 1997 1985–1997
No. of transactions
the 3.0 percent excess return for R&D firms is economically large, given that
the mean interval between transaction and filing dates is 25 days only. For
insider sales, the mean market-adjusted return over the transaction-filing
interval for R&D firms was 20.5 percent versus 20.1 percent for No-R&D
firms.
The post-transaction returns generally increase from the first interval ~trans-
action to SEC filing date! to the second interval ~6 months following trade!,
and further increase for the third interval ~12 months following trade!. Dur-
ing six months following trade, excess mean returns from share purchases
for R&D firms were 9.61 percent versus 3.56 percent for No-R&D firms. All
the differences between mean ~median! returns of R&D versus No-R&D firms
in Table I are statistically significant at the 5 percent level.
The return data in Table I are consistent with our hypothesis: Insider
gains in R&D-intensive companies are substantially higher than insider gains
in No-R&D companies. However, the underlying individual transaction data
are not independent ~there are multiple transactions per firm!, and the re-
turns over the 6 and 12 months intervals are overlapping. Moreover, firm
attributes ~e.g., risk, size! related to R&D may affect the documented re-
turns, in addition to the hypothesized information asymmetry differences.
Accordingly, the return data in Table I should be viewed as descriptive and
tentative, and we proceed below to aggregate insider transactions by firms,
considering only no overlapping return intervals and controlling for known
risk factors.
11
In the large majority of sample firm-month cases, insider trades were either all sales or all
purchases.
2756 The Journal of Finance
where
RDpt 2 NORDpt 5 return from going long on a portfolio of firms that en-
gage in R&D and short on a portfolio of firms that do
not engage in R&D, in months where insiders were net
purchasers of shares. The return interval is between
transaction date and one day prior to SEC filing date—
25 days on average.
R mt 2 R ft 5 the market excess return in month t.
SMBt 5 the difference between month t return on a value-
weighted portfolio of small stocks and one of large stocks.
HML t 5 the difference between month t return on a value-
weighted portfolio of high book-to-market stocks and
one of low book-to-market stocks.13
12
We replicate our tests with value-weighted portfolio returns and obtain very similar re-
sults to those of the equally-weighted returns.
13
The construction of these variables is described in Fama and French ~1993!. We thank Ken
French for providing us the data for the independent variables in equation ~1!.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2757
Table II
Returns from Going Long on Insider Trading in R&D Firms
and Short on No-R&D Firms
Panel A presents mean and median percentage raw returns earned on portfolios formed as
follows: For each month between January 1985 and November 1997 we calculate, for each
sample firm, the mean raw return from the insider transaction date to one day prior to the SEC
filing date, over all insider transactions during the month. We calculate the mean returns
separately for firms with and without R&D, and for firms where insiders were net purchasers
during the month ~i.e., share purchases exceeded sales! and firms where insiders were net
sellers during the month. # . 0 indicates number of months ~out of 155! when the mean return
was positive. In Panel B, the intercept ~a! of the Fama-French three-factor model in equation
~1! is presented. It is the estimated intercept from a time series regression ~155 observations!
of the portfolio returns of firms with R&D minus the portfolio return of firms without R&D
~RD 2 NORD! on the market excess return ~RM 2 RF!, a zero-investment size portfolio ~SMB!,
and a zero-investment book-to-market portfolio ~HML!.
Insider Purchases
RDt 2 NORDt 0.011** 20.129 0.491** 20.364 0.056
t-statistic ~2.40! ~21.01! ~2.65! ~21.56!
Insider Sales
RDt 2 NORDt 20.005* 0.088 0.232** 20.072 0.043
t-statistic ~21.85! ~1.24! ~2.24! ~20.55!
*, **, and *** denote significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively.
An identical regression to equation ~1! was run for portfolios of insider sales:
RDst 2 NORDst .
Panel A of Table II presents the univariate raw returns for the four port-
folios examined. Consistent with prior research, we observe for all trades
positive stock returns subsequent to insiders’ share purchases and negative
returns subsequent to insiders’ sales. As hypothesized above, both the mean
and median returns on the R&D portfolios are significantly higher than
returns on the No-R&D portfolios when insiders purchased shares and lower
when they sold shares. Investing long in a portfolio of R&D firms whose
insiders purchased shares and short in a portfolio of No-R&D firms whose
insiders purchased shares ~RDt 2 NORDt ! yields a mean ~median! return of
0.92 percent ~1.66 percent! over an average of 25 days between transaction
2758 The Journal of Finance
and SEC filing dates.14 The insider sales portfolios yield a differential mean
~median! return of 20.60 percent ~20.70 percent! over the same interval in
favor of R&D firms.
Panel B of Table II presents estimates from the Fama-French three-factor
model in equation ~1!.15 As hypothesized, the estimated intercepts from time-
series regressions of the difference in return between firms with R&D and
those without R&D ~RD 2 NORD! on the three systematic factors are sig-
nificantly positive when insiders purchased shares ~0.011, t 5 2.40!, and
significantly negative when insiders sold shares ~20.005, t 5 21.85!. The
estimated intercepts are close to the univariate returns in Panel A: 0.0092
for purchases and 20.006 for sales. Given that the average interval over
which these returns were gained was 25 days, the estimated gains are eco-
nomically meaningful as well, particularly for stock purchasers.
An additional test is performed to gain insight into the association be-
tween R&D intensity and insider gains. First, we divide the sample into
three groups: Firms without R&D expenditures, firms with R&D intensity
~R&D over sales! below the sample median ~low R&D!, and firms with R&D
intensity above the sample median ~high R&D!. We then run the three-factor
model in equation ~1! for return differences between Low and No-R&D, High
and No-R&D, and High and Low R&D portfolios. These regressions are run
separately for net purchasers and net sellers of shares. Following are the
estimated a coefficients and t-values from these regressions:
14
Such an investment strategy cannot, of course, be implemented by outsiders who are not
informed about insiders’ transactions in real time.
15
We obtain similar results with a four-factor model, where the fourth factor is a return
momentum ~see Carhart ~1997!!.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2759
The analysis reported in this section thus indicates that insiders in R&D
firms gain from trade in their firms’ shares significantly more than insiders
in No-R&D firms, and that for share purchases the gain differential is mainly
attributed to firms with high ~above median! R&D intensity.
16
This date is defined in our database as the date when the filing was received by the SEC.
2760 The Journal of Finance
Table III
Investors’ Reaction to the Disclosure of Insider Trades
Day 0 is the date when the filing on insider transactions was received by the SEC. Days ~0, 11!
refers to the cumulative raw return over day 0 and the following trading day. Days ~0, 11, 12!
is the three-day return. There are 29,689 sale transactions for No-R&D firms and 24,166 sale
transactions for firms with R&D. There are 24,961 purchase transactions for No-R&D firms
and 9,262 purchase transactions for R&D firms. The total number of insider transactions here
is smaller than in Table I, because multiple transactions per firm reported to the SEC on the
same day are considered here as one transaction. All mean and median returns are signifi-
cantly different from zero at the one percent level. # . 0 indicates the percentage of individual
returns that are positive.
Day 0
Firms without R&D 0.15%*** 0.00%* 35.6% 20.10%* 0.00%*** 39.3%
Firms with R&D 0.31%*** 0.01%* 55.5% 20.15%* 20.01*** 38.4%
Days ~0, 11!
Firms without R&D 0.24%*** 0.00%* 44.3% 20.19%*** 0.00%*** 45.1%
Firms with R&D 0.40%*** 0.01%* 55.1% 20.34%*** 20.01%*** 44.4%
Days ~0, 11, 12!
Firms without R&D 0.39%*** 0.00%* 47.7% 20.28%*** 0.00%*** 46.9%
Firms with R&D 0.58%*** 0.02%* 58.8% 20.47%*** 20.01%*** 42.2%
* and *** denote that the means or medians of the R&D and No-R&D firms are significantly
different from each other at the 10 and 1 percent levels, respectively.
firms without R&D. When insiders’ purchases of shares were disclosed, the
mean market reaction on day 0 for R&D firms was 0.31 percent versus 0.15
percent for No-R&D firms ~the difference is significant at the 1 percent level!.
When insiders’ sales of shares were disclosed, the mean market reaction on
day 0 for R&D firms was 20.15 percent versus 20.10 percent for No-R&D
firms.17 The reaction to insider trade disclosure increases with the interval
length, indicating that not all of the filed information is disclosed to inves-
tors on the filing date.18
The volume of trade surrounding the disclosure of insider transactions is
another indication of information revelation. We find that for R&D firms
where insiders sold shares the mean ~median! volume of shares traded ~de-
f lated by outstanding shares! on day 0 was 0.74 percent ~0.34 percent!, whereas
for No-R&D firms the mean ~median! volumes were 0.41 percent ~0.19 per-
17
Repeating the analysis of Table III using value-weighted mean returns slightly increases
the significance of the results, whereas using size-adjusted returns slightly decreases the sig-
nificance of the results.
18
We also calculate the correlation between the firms’ R&D intensity ~R&D to sales!, as a
proxy for information asymmetry, and the market reaction to trade disclosure on day 0. The
correlation coefficient is 0.039 ~ p-value of 0.001! for insider purchases and 20.019 ~ p-value of
0.001! for insider sales.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2761
cent!. The differences between those means ~medians! are statistically sig-
nificant at the 1 percent level. For insider purchases in R&D firms, the
mean ~median! volume of shares traded ~def lated by outstanding shares! on
day 0 was 0.44 percent ~0.28 percent!, whereas for No-R&D firms, the mean
~median! volume was 0.25 percent ~0.10 percent!. The differences between
those means ~medians! are also statistically significant at the one percent
level. We document similar, yet larger differences in volume of trade be-
tween R&D and No-R&D firms as we expand the interval to one and two
days following the SEC filing date.
Based on the evidence, we conclude that investors react more strongly to
the public disclosure of insider trades in R&D firms compared with firms
without R&D activities, consistent with the hypothesis that R&D contrib-
utes to information asymmetry. Stated differently, there is more private in-
formation in R&D companies than in companies without R&D and observing
insider trades ~even with a time lag! is one means of narrowing the infor-
mation gap. Furthermore, investors’ significant reaction to insider trade dis-
closure, made on average 25 days after the actual trade, indicates that not
all of the insiders’ private information is revealed through their own trade or
analysts’ search activities.
V. Robustness Tests
A. Trade Intensity and R&D
If R&D enhances information asymmetry and managers exploit this asym-
metry we would expect heavier insider trade activity in R&D firms than in
firms without R&D, as the formers’ officers attempt to gain from unique
private information. The heavier activity of insiders in R&D firms may be
ref lected in more frequent trade and0or more intensive trade ~relative to shares
outstanding!. Indeed we find that insiders in R&D firms trade relatively
frequently: The mean ~median! number of insider trades for R&D firms over
the sample period was 17.1 ~11! per firm, compared with 15.3 ~9! for No-
R&D firms.19 We also find that the intensity of insider trades, measured in
various ways, is higher for R&D firms than for firms without R&D. For
example, when we measure trade intensity by the ratio of the number of
shares traded by insiders in each transaction to the firm’s outstanding shares,
we find the mean ~median! of that ratio for R&D firms to be 0.07 percent
~0.03 percent!, whereas for firms without R&D it is 0.06 percent ~0.02 per-
cent!; the differences for both mean and median are statistically significant
at the one percent level. Furthermore, the correlation between R&D inten-
sity and insider trade intensity is 0.112 ~ p-value of 0.0001!. When insider
trade intensity is measured as the ratio of the number of shares traded by
an insider to the individual’s total share holdings, we find the mean ~me-
19
The means and medians mentioned here are significantly different at the one percent
level between R&D and No-R&D firms.
2762 The Journal of Finance
dian! intensity in R&D firms to be 22.4 percent ~8.5 percent! versus 21.5 per-
cent ~6.5 percent! in No-R&D firms ~the differences are once more significant
at the one percent level!. The correlation between this intensity measure
and the firm’s R&D intensity is 0.066, significant at the 1 percent level.20
The heavier trade activity of insiders in R&D firms documented here raises
the question whether our findings in Section III ~R&D officers gain more
from inside trading than their counterparts in No-R&D firms! are due to
trade intensity differences, rather than to information asymmetry. To exam-
ine this question we construct a sample of insider trades matched by trade
size and run the three-factor regressions ~1! on this sample. Specifically, for
each sample month ~1985 to 1997! we rank the combined R&D and No-R&D
samples ~separately for stock purchases and sales! by dollar value of trans-
action, and select adjacent R&D and No-R&D trades, where the difference in
trade value was smaller than 10 percent. These pairs of value-matched trans-
actions are inputs into the three-factor regression.21
The regression estimates of these trade-size-controlled insider transac-
tions are somewhat stronger than those in Panel B of Table II. The intercept
estimate for insider purchases is 0.011 ~t 5 2.00!, nearly identical to the a
estimate in Table II, and the intercept estimate for insider sales is 20.007,
t 5 22.27 ~compared with 20.005, t 5 21.85 in Table II!. We conclude, there-
fore, that the difference in insider gains between R&D and No-R&D firms is
not induced by differences in size ~value! of trades; rather managers of R&D
firms exploit the relatively large information asymmetry associated with R&D.
20
We also find that the mean ~median! number of shares traded in each insider transaction
was 7,102 ~4,000! shares for firms with R&D activities and 5,693 shares ~2,000 shares! for firms
without R&D expenditures. Similarly, the value of shares traded was significantly higher for
firms with R&D than for No-R&D firms: The mean ~median! value of shares traded in each
transaction was $164,764 ~$50,000! for firms with R&D versus $140,399 ~$24,200! for firms
without R&D expenditures. Moreover, the number and value of trades is higher in R&D firms
than in No-R&D firms for both sale and purchase transactions.
21
The value match was close: The mean ~median! transaction value is $215,648 ~$48,000! for
R&D firms and $214,526 ~$47,787! for No-R&D firms.
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2763
~decreased! in 63.1 percent ~36.9 percent! of the sample cases. Because many
of the quarterly R&D changes are rather small ~R&D time series are gen-
erally stable!, we rank the firm-specific R&D changes by size and focus the
analysis on the upper ~relatively large R&D increases! and lower ~large R&D
decreases! quartiles.
For firms in the upper quartile of R&D changes, insiders purchased over
the sample period a total of 40.0 million shares and sold a total of 91.4
million shares ahead of the disclosure of R&D increases in quarterly re-
ports.22 This purchase-to-sales ratio of 0.44 is substantially larger than the
overall sample purchase-to-sales ratio ~Table I! for R&D companies—0.26
~312 to 1,187 million shares!—suggesting enhanced insider purchases prior
to an R&D increase announcement. For the bottom quartile of firms ranked
by R&D changes ~relatively large R&D decreases!, insiders purchased 9.6
million shares and sold 138.9 million shares ahead of the quarterly report.
The ratio of purchase-to-sales ahead of R&D decreases—0.07—is substan-
tially smaller than the sample mean ~0.26!. It appears, therefore, that in-
siders increase share purchases ahead of disclosing R&D increases and enhance
the sale of shares ahead of R&D decreases.23
We also perform a portfolio analysis conditional on the direction of R&D
changes. Specifically, we form calendar-time portfolios for each sample month
~1985 to 1997, 155 months in total! of firms that have experienced an in-
crease in R&D and those whose R&D has decreased. We do this separately
for firms where insiders were predominantly purchasing shares during the
month ~RDPt ! and firms in which insiders were predominantly sellers of
shares ~RDSt !. For each firm, an average return ~over all insider transac-
tions during the month! is computed from the date of an insider transaction
to one day prior to filing with the SEC, similarly to the returns analyzed in
Table II. The Fama-French three-factor model is used to estimate excess
returns ~a!, where the dependent variable is the difference between returns
from share purchases and returns from the sale of shares ~RDPt 2 RDSt !,
for firms that increased R&D expenditures ~i.e., going long on firms in which
insiders were net purchasers and short on firms in which insiders were net
sellers!. For firms that have decreased R&D, the dependent variable is the
difference between returns from insider sales minus returns from insider
purchases ~RDSt 2 RDPt !.
Panel B of Table IV presents estimates of the three-factor model, condi-
tional on foreknowledge ~prior to public disclosure! of the change in R&D
expenditures. It is evident from the a coefficients that for R&D increases
22
The computation of shares purchased and sold by insiders is made for every fiscal quarter
t, in 1985 to 1997. The public disclosure of the change in R&D expenditures in quarter t,
relative to t 2 1, was made in quarter t financial report, released in quarter t 1 1.
23
The mean ~median! number of shares per insider transaction is also consistent with the
direction of R&D changes. For R&D increases, the mean ~median! number of shares in purchase
transactions were 17,019 ~5,000! versus 15,912 ~2,500! for sale transactions. For R&D de-
creases, the mean ~median! number of shares in purchase transactions were 10,003 ~1,000!
versus 29,000 ~15,000! for sale transactions.
2764 The Journal of Finance
Table IV
Returns Earned on Portfolios Formed on the Basis
of Changes in R&D Expenditures
Panel A presents percentage raw returns earned on portfolios formed as follows: For each month
between January 1985 and November 1997 we calculate, for each firm engaged in R&D, the
raw return for each insider transaction from the transaction date to one day prior to the SEC
filing date. We then calculate firm-specific mean ~median! returns for firms in which insiders
were net purchasers and for firms in which insiders were net sellers of shares. We compute
returns separately for firms that increased R&D and those that decreased R&D expenditures.
These mean ~median! returns are reported in Panel A. # . 0 refers to number of months ~out
of 155! in which returns were positive. In Panel B, the estimated coefficients of the three-factor
Fama-French regressions are presented. The dependent variable for R&D increases is the dif-
ference in excess returns ~over the interval between transaction and filing date! between a
portfolio of firms in which insiders were net purchasers of shares ~RDPt ! and a portfolio of
firms in which insiders were net sellers of shares ~RDSt !. For R&D decreases, the dependent
variable is reversed: RDSt 2 RDPt .
R&D increases
RDPt 2 RDSt 0.042*** 20.211 0.135 0.023 0.006
t-statistic ~8.33! ~21.59! ~0.70! ~0.09!
R&D decreases
RDSt 2 RDPt 20.022*** 0.053 0.034 0.034 0.001
t-statistic ~25.23! ~0.48! ~0.21! ~0.17!
~top row of Panel B!, going long on firms in which insiders were net pur-
chasers of shares and short on firms where insiders were net sellers yielded
an excess return of 4.2 percent over an average of 25 days between trans-
action and SEC filing date. For firms that have decreased R&D, the opposite
strategy would have yielded an excess return of 2.2 percent. Both excess
returns are highly statistically significant.
Note that the estimated excess returns ~a! in Table IV ~4.2 percent and
22.2 percent! are substantially larger than those in Table II ~1.1 percent and
20.5 percent!, indicating extra gains obtained by insiders possessing private
information about future changes in R&D budgets, relative to the gains based
on the “average information” possessed by insiders.
Finally, Panel A of Table IV presents mean ~median! returns to insider
trading in the expected direction ~e.g., purchasing during an R&D increase!,
as well as to “contrarians”—insiders that purchased shares ahead of an R&D
Information Asymmetry, R&D, And Insider Gains 2765
decrease announcement and those that sold shares ahead of an R&D increase.
The contrarians’ mean gain from purchasing shares during a period of an R&D
decrease ~0.88 percent! is substantially lower than that of insiders who pur-
chased during R&D increases ~mean return of 5.55 percent!. The contrarians
who sold shares during R&D increases saw share prices gain 1.53 percent, on
average, after they sold their shares. We can only speculate that those con-
trarians were motivated by liquidity or portfolio diversification needs.
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