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Strategy 4
The Sticky Method
Markets Involved
Match Odds
Overview
The “Sticky” method is based on a market observation I have made
during recent years. I have found that the popularity of methods
such as “Lay The Draw” and also the explosion of in-play betting have
led to situations where the market prices can become “sticky” in-
play. This means the price does not move significantly for a certain
amount of time which creates a very low risk but extremely high
reward opportunity for us traders. We can either back or lay certain
markets knowing a goal will get us a huge profit or we can get out for
a small loss once it starts moving again.
There are several opportunities to spot this during the match but
you need to keep your eye on the markets closely to spot these
however I am going to show you the most obvious time to use the
“Sticky” trade.
I am going to show you one of the best times to use the sticky trade.
This is right at the start of the match and in the Match Odds market
by laying the draw. You will find that in certain matches where the
favourite is particularly strong the price on the draw will remain
static, or “sticky” for a reasonable amount of time at the start of the
match. This is usually due to all the lay the draw traders getting
involved but also due to the late punters who have started watching
the match all throwing their bets on the favourite. You will find that
the more dominant the favourite starts the match means that the
price will remain reasonably static for longer.
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With this method I have seen favourites start the match with shot
after shot which actually causes the draw to DRIFT in-play and I have
had the chance to stay in the market for up to 20 minutes before
the price begins to move against me significantly. On average you
should expect the first 10 minutes though.
The main aim for us is for the favourite to actually convert one of the
chances and the draw price will rise higher which will be a very tasty
profit for little risk. If no goals are scored by the time the price
begins moving against you by more then a few ticks then you just exit
for a small loss. Ideally, you will be watching the match so you can see
how dominant the favourite is. If the favourite remains dominant
then it can often pay to stay in a bit longer, just as long as you are
prepared to exit for a loss if they begin to fade.
Warning
Before I go further with this I must just warn you that you can not
expect a high strike rate with this strategy. We are aiming for an
early goal after all and this may or may not transpire due to the
length of time you get in the market. My own strike rate for this
method is about 33% which means I am getting the goal I need
about 1 in every 3 matches or 3 in every 10 matches. If you can not
handle losing runs then this is probably not for you. The profits easily
outweigh the losses as you will soon see.
Also, the markets WILL still move against you but just much slower
then usual which is what we are looking for. So this is not a risk free
method but you are about to see just how low risk it is.
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Profiling The Matches
You will be pleased to know that not much profiling is needed when
using this strategy as it just relies on a hard and fast start to the
football match and you can only see that happen when it kicks off.
The best matches to look for are matches where the favourite
starts @ 1.70 or lower. I have found having the Draw no higher then
6 also helps too. The best draw prices for The Sticky are actually
between 4 and 5.
What To Look For
We want a strong favourite that is likely to come out firing and reign
in shots on the opponents goal and then we want a favourite that
punters will want to be backing in-play to hold the price up. I have
found favourites priced below 1.70 are ideal for this but you can use
your own initiative and just watch the opening stages of any match
to see how quickly the draw price is moving and how the favourite is
performing. Usually if the market is anticipating a goal it will hold the
price up regardless.
This also works best on matches that are live on TV and this is for
the similar reasons in that we want a match that attracts the casual
in-play punters who will get involved once it gets under way.
Strategy Entry Points
As I sit down to watch a match involving a strong favourite I will have
my finger ready to Lay “The Draw” if it starts with a high tempo and
the favourite is coming forwards and looking menacing. This can
usually be spotted within the first 2-3 minutes. It often helps if you
have the home crowd behind them making noise also as this just
adds to the casual punter mindset that the favourite will score at
any time. In a way, I am following the markets here however I am also
prepared to get out for a small loss if the goal does not happen
which most punters probably will not do.
If you want you can get in on minute 1 and see if the fast start
happens. If it doesn't transpire then you need to have the discipline
to exit out.
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Exit Strategies
Goal To Favourite
If the favourite scores a goal then it is happy days all around and I can
usually lock in a profit of 38-45% on my stake on average. This
money is then there for me to play with for the rest of the match as I
may even want to lay that favourite late on if the underdog starts to
look dangerous.
Goal To Underdog
If you are watching the match and reading it correctly then this
should rarely happen. You only want to use this strategy when the
favourite is dominant and the underdog is struggling to get out of
their own half. If you see the underdog getting in attempts on goal
then this is not a good time to use this strategy and you should just
get out. However, if it does happen and the underdog sneaks a goal
you will probably be looking at a loss of about 20% depending on
where the draw price started. This is not the end of the world and
should be a rare occurrence anyway.
No Goal
This is your most likely scenario with this strategy and it is important
to understand that. The majority of the time you use this method
you will end up taking a loss however if you keep those losses at less
then 10% of your stake then it only takes a few early goals to put
you in good profit with the strategy. You will find that the more the
favourite dominates, the longer you get to stay in the market. I have
done this with teams like Barcelona and the price has hardly moved
for 20 minutes which is a good window of opportunity. If I go in the
market and it seems like the favourite is firing but then they fade
then I will just get out before the markets realise also and this might
be only a 5% loss. However, once I see via my software that my loss
is 10% I usually just cut out and begin trading other strategies.
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Sticky Method FAQ
Can I use this method on matches I am not watching?
Just to emphasise once more, it is vital you WATCH the action
unfold when using this strategy. This is all about acting upon your
observations as the markets will react also. I have tried
experimenting and using this strategy on a match I can not watch
but I felt like I was trading blindly. It was no coincidence that when I
used this strategy without watching the action the markets moved
against me harshly or the underdog would score.
But only like 12% of matches have a goal in first 10 minutes are the
stats not against us with this trade?
This is not a trading strategy that is based on statistics. This is
based on a market trend giving us a low risk, or good value,
opportunity. If you use this blindly, you WILL fail. However, if you use
this only when the opportunity arises then you will do well. I should
also stress that we will usually get longer then the first 10 minutes
of the match before we hit the 10% stop loss maximum.
Do you always wait till your loss hits 10% before getting out?
No way. I go by the action on the pitch. If the tempo begins to slow
the markets will react and I might just scratch my trade for a 5-6%
loss. No point staying in and making a 10% loss if the action is not
convincing me the early goal will come. On the flipside, I may actually
stay in longer then my 10% stop loss on rare occasions when the
favourite is really on top. I might even let it run till half time if I
genuinely believe they will take the lead soon but I do not advise any
newbies to try this.
What is the longest the market has remained “sticky” in your
experience?
On average you should get about 10 minutes before the market
begins to adjust but it does depend on the action on the pitch. I have
done this with Bayern Munich and Barcelona matches and had 30
minutes in the market. I even remember an Italian match involving
Inter Milan in their treble season when I had till the 45 th minute as
the markets were so sure of a goal arriving, and it did.
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Dynamic
Examples
This is where you will see real life trading
examples and the thought process behind
each trading move.
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Dynamic Example 1
Zenit Vs CSKA Moscow
This example shows you just how long we can get to stay in the
market when it goes sticky. Keep an eye on the time stamp at top of
each screen shot!
This is a Russian Premier League match between Zenit St.
Petersburg and CSKA Moscow. This match kicked off @ 5pm and is
1 minute in ([Link] PM) and Zenit have already won a corner. I
quickly got my Lay The Draw in and got matched @ 4.2 just before
the market drifted a bit when the corner came in. Clearly, this was
other draw layers all getting in at the same time!
As you can see the draw even drifted a little bit more which just
emphasizes what is happening in this market at the moment and
long may it continue. Ignore the big liability as you will not be risking
anything anywhere near this.
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By 6 minutes of the match, the market is still very static and has not
moved. I could easily get out for no loss at this moment but whilst
Zenit are being dominant I will hang in there. At this moment there is
no risk.
As you can see by the clock, we are now into the 10 th minute of the
match and the prices have still not moved mainly due to the
dominance of Zenit so far. All the in-play punters are either backing
Zenit or laying the draw which has meant I have had a risk free punt
for at least 10 minutes now!
Just need that goal!!
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It is now the 15th minute and look... Still NO move in the price! Zenit
have made the CSKA goalkeeper make 3 saves so far so the money
is still coming in for them. I am wondering at what point the markets
will begin to move against me but for now I am staying in!
2 minutes later and Zenit make the break through.
Once the market reforms I press the green up button on Bet Angel
and I have made £38.24 profit on this trade.
Hopefully this example will show you how powerful this method can
be, especially when you realise I risked pretty much zero in this
instance and made £38.
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Dynamic Example 2
Norwich Vs Chelsea
Here is an example of the trade going precisely to plan with no
sweating.
This is a Barclays Premier League match between Norwich and
Chelsea. This match kicked off @ 1.30 pm and you can see it has just
gone into the 3rd minute. Chelsea have started very positively so this
is worth a go and I Lay The Draw @ 4.5. Now you just watch and hope
Chelsea keep the pressure on.
Just a minute later and Chelsea take the lead through Oscar.
I immediately green up when the market reforms for a profit of
£38.75 and a good start to the match. This was obviously the best
case scenario and it is not always this easy so do not expect that.
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Dynamic Example 3
France Vs Ukraine
This is a World Cup qualifier between France and Ukraine. France
are trailing by 2 goals from the first leg so I am hugely expectant
that they will go at Ukraine right from kick off which is ideal for the
sticky method. 1 minute in and I have just had a lay matched @ 4.60.
By the 6th minute you can see the draw price is actually rising!
France are all over Ukraine and they have the crowd behind them
too. This is precisely what causes everyone else to jump into the
markets also.
I could actually make £8 profit right now but I am aiming for a bigger
win.
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By the 10th minute and France are so dominant that The Draw drifts
even higher. I entered my lay @ 4.6 and the price has gone out to 5.2.
This will buy me more time in the market, hopefully France can score
soon.
I wait till the 21st minute and decide to call it a day with the sticky
method as I have now opened a Time Bomb trade. As you can see
there was Zero loss on this market and I was involved for TWENTY
minutes!
Annoyingly, France score right when I exit the market. You can get
annoyed when this happens or you can just laugh at your bad luck!
Either way, this example shows you just how long you really can get in
the markets with the sticky method. I exited at 20 minutes but it
could have gone on for longer then that if the goal was not scored.
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Dynamic Example 4
Leverkusen Vs Bayern Munich
Here is an example that again illustrates how long you can often get
to stay in the markets before the market begins to move drastically
against you.
This is a Bundesliga match between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern
Munich. It kicked off @ 5.30pm and is 1 minute in as you can see
from the clock in the screen shot. It has started with a good pace so
I take the chance in this one and Lay The Draw @ 4.6 with £100.
After 5 minutes you can see The Draw price has not moved here
and has remained static or “sticky” as I like to call it. Bayern have
already had 2 shots on goal so far and the draw layers are coming
out which is keeping the price up.
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It is now 14 minutes in and Bayern are still going hard at Leverkusen.
The draw price has begun to move against me but it is still going very
slowly. At the moment I could get out for a small £4.55 loss as I have
had a good amount of time in the market awaiting the Bayern goal.
However, Bayern are really going for it so I stay in. Either way, I have
had a good run for my money here so far.
It is now 18 minutes in and this should be my usual exit point as I only
usually accept a 10% maximum loss on this trade. However, I am
sucked in as Bayern are hugely dominant here. I decide to stay in for
a couple more minutes.
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Still no luck and I have to get out for a £12 loss on this trade
however it took until the 22nd minute for the market to being moving
dramatically against me which shows how low risk this actually is.
I must admit to getting a bit sucked into the action on this one as
Bayern were so dominant and I did stay in for longer then I should
have. I really should have got out at 18 minutes for the £9 loss.
To compound my misery, Bayern scored a few moments later...
Good thing I had a time bomb trade opened by this time though! ;-)
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Dynamic Example 5
Austria Vienna Vs Atletico Madrid
I threw this example in just to show you the extent of the profits that
can be made.
This is a Champions League match between Austria Vienna and
Atletico Madrid. It kicked off @ 7.45pm and you can see it is just 5
minutes into the match with the time @ 7:50pm. Atletico have
started the match on fire and I have just done a lay of the draw @ 4.8
and annoyingly the market did move against me quite quickly and
was 4.6 by the time the screenshot was taken.
However, there was no sweating as 4 minutes later Atletico took the
lead.
This one scores a nice quick profit of £48.94 and I was in the trade
for 4 minutes. If you consider the max loss on this trade to be £10 it
is an almost 500% ROI!
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Dynamic Example 6
Arsenal Vs Southampton
Here is a quick example to show you how the markets will move
against you if the favourite does not come out all guns blazing.
This was a delayed Premier League kick off and actually kicks off at
3:15pm as you can see. I lay Arsenal @ 4.4 expecting a strong start
from them.
5 minutes in and the odds are sticky. However, I can see from the
action that Southampton are keeping good possession in the first 5
minutes. I should now exit when I see this.
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Ideally I should have got out in those first 5 minutes when Arsenal
were not dominating how I liked. However, I wanted to show you how
low risk this method actually can be and it was only till the 12th when
the markets realised Arsenal were not starting strong and the
markets began to move against me.
So I got out for a small £7.31 loss but really this should have been
zero loss as the warning signs were there in just the 5th minute.
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Dynamic Example 7
AC Milan Vs Genoa
But let's end the examples with a positive one to show you the vast
upside of this method.
I have just jumped in the AC Milan match with a Lay Of The Draw as
they start the match on the front foot.
Literally, as soon as I got in the market, there was a goal, the
markets suspended and I was all green.
You will be surprised at how many winners you do get with the Sticky
Method and even when you go through a losing patch, just
remember there will be once nice big winner around the corner
which can wipe out most of the losses.
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More Sticky Method
FAQ
“Why not just back “First Goal 0-10 minutes?”
It might be easy to assume that this strategy is relying on a
goal within the first 10 minutes but this is the wrong
assumption. I have seen matches where the draw price is
sticky for up to 30 minutes. I actually traded a dodgy Italian
match involving Inter Milan a few years back where the draw
price was sticky till the 45th minute and finally the goal went in.
The beauty of this strategy is we are creating a low risk
situation which gives us an almost “FREE” bet at a goal going in
for the favourite. We are getting a lot longer then 10 minutes
in the market in most cases. The Zenit example in example 1
showed the market stalling for 15 minutes. This might have
gone on for even longer and we might have had 20 or even 30
minutes in the market at low risk.
“Are we not over relying on the favourite to take the lead with this
trade?”
It is true that if the underdog does score the first goal the potential
loss might be a bit bigger then 10% but this should be a rare
occasion. Main reason being this is a strategy you should only be
using when you are watching the action and when the favourite is
dominant. It is possible that the underdog might score a goal
against the run of play but this should be very rare if you are only
using this strategy when the favourite is dominating. If you find
yourself getting caught out by underdog goals constantly with this
strategy then I would suggest you are not paying good enough
attention to the actual action.
“Will the markets adjust to this trend eventually?”
Anything is possible in the Betfair markets but this market trend is
simply caused by the human emotion of greed. Everyone is seeing
the favourite playing well and they fancy a goal which is what holds
the market up. If anything, the more people who use this strategy,
the better as it will hold the market up even longer!
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Best Of
Luck!
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