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Counting Principles and Probability Basics

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Abdullah Ibrahim
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Topics covered

  • Card dealing,
  • Dice rolls,
  • Combinatorial problems,
  • Aces distribution,
  • Statistical independence,
  • Outcome space,
  • Random experiments,
  • Independent events,
  • Experimental design,
  • Set theory
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
45 views14 pages

Counting Principles and Probability Basics

Uploaded by

Abdullah Ibrahim
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • Card dealing,
  • Dice rolls,
  • Combinatorial problems,
  • Aces distribution,
  • Statistical independence,
  • Outcome space,
  • Random experiments,
  • Independent events,
  • Experimental design,
  • Set theory

LECTURE 4: Counting

n • • •
Discrete uniform law • / .
• A'
- Assume n consists of n equally likely elements
- Assume A consists of k elements • " J.. • /

' ",- 7
Then : peA) = number of elements of A = k v
1
number of elements of n n prob = ­
n

• Basic counting principle

• Applications

permutations number of subsets


combinations bi nom ia I proba bi lities
partitions

1
Basic counting principle \'2 2 Lj =- Lj ·3 .2.

4 shirts 1"=3
3 ties
fV\ ,-, _11
2 j ackets
'Vl t ;:~
Number of possible attires?
'V1;=-2

• r stages
• ni choices at stage i

Number o f choices is : 1Yl,' 'Yl2 ••• 1)'))-.

2
Basic counting principle examples

• Number of license plates w ith 2 letters fo llowed by 3 digits:

'26 ·'LG· \0-10-10


• ... if repetition is prohibited: 26 '25 • , 0 . ~ . '3

• Permutations: N um ber of ways of ordering n elements:

, ..
"1.-1 ~-'2 1.


.
Number of subsets of {I , ... ,n}:
"
. - - 2·2 ,··1
" 3
Using Counting to solve simple probabilistic problems
Example

• F ind th e probabil it y th at : / A
six rolls of a (six-sided) die al l give differe nt numbers.
I ! I I
( A ssum e all o utco m es equ ally likely.)

~
-+ 1 i c 0 Q 0 Jet)"", e .£ (2) 'S ) 1-) ,1" ) b, 2) -:::
II
o
Permutations of A

-- •

4
Combinations • Definition: ( n ) . num ber o f k-elem ent subset s n!
k
/'''1. .'-. - o f a g iven n - elem ent set k !( n - k )!

L................2;::::i': '/ "1\:0)1/1.., ••

• Two ways of constructing an ordered sequence of k distinct items: 1c:.;O}I)~ ... )'"

Choose the k items one at a time

Choose k items, then order them


1

I • • ,

Ih.(<>t - I)(on_Z) • -('Yl-Ktl) -


~
• '11 " •

')J ("",-Ic)~
I<~
--
M KI
iC •
Pick all the subsets having k-elements
5
n) n!
(k = k!(n - k)!

C)= 1 = --1

o -t I
+ . ' •

= Permutations

6
Binomial coefficient G) ---+) Binomial probabilities

• n > 1 ind ep end ent coin t osses; P(H) = p P( k heads) = G)pk(l _ p )n- k
'1\: 6
• P(HTT HHH ) = P(1- P)(I - PJ P?Y : pY (\ - p) •
Or Equivalently

For n-trials

• P(parti c ul ar k - hea d sequ ence) :: pK( \ _p)'h.-I<


Total Probability of all k-head sequences

P (k hea ds) = ((I-prJ<'· Cit ~- heor} se?ue""ccs)


"l
\<

H 7
A coin tossing problem
Assumpti o ns:
• Given that there were 3 heads in 10 tosses,
• ind epend ence
what is the probability that the first two tosses were heads?
• P ( H) = p
event A : the fi rst 2 tosses were heads
P (k hea ds) = C)pk( 1 _ p)n- k
event B : 3 out of 10 tosses were heads

• First solution:
P(A n B)
E(H I_I 2 0..""ll.1
1
1 I
o""C" L""to>~>
I
» ___ /)D )

peA I B) = = -' ~---:-:-7-'-----~~--


PCB) .p (g,')
p1. • 8 PI .(I-? )t (8
-
- I
- -- 1 8
: ., -­

10
~
8
A coin tossing problem
Assumpti o ns:
• Given that there were 3 heads in 10 tosses,
• ind epend ence
what is the probability that the first two tosses were heads?
• P ( H) = p
event A : the fi rst 2 tosses were heads
P (k hea ds) = C)pk( 1 _ p)n- k
event B : 3 out of 10 tosses were heads

• Second solution: Conditional probability law (on B) is uniform

SL • ee'\~tQ 10 5e9.


:#= i... (11 (I B) 8
• 0

3-t/eo. d. s e9 5
--
• #' i'l1 13 10

p~(\ _P)1­ 3> •

9
Number of ways that a given set can be partitioned into pieces of given sizes.
Partitions "'l
f '\
• n >
1 distinct items; r > 1 persons
give n i items to person i -' c
here nt , ... , n r are given nonnegative integers ••• Number of
ways

M,
with nl + ... + n r = n '\. "'l "­ 'VIr

• Ordering n items: /)'(1



Deal n i to each person i . and then order
t
I I, I I I I I I I I, I I i I I
, J
C tn,. = IYl. •I 'I •
"1.,

'Yl _ l­ Binomial case


I - I"­

n!
numb er o f partitio ns = - - - - - ­ (multinomial coefficient)
n l! n2 ! ···nT !

10
Example: 52-card deck, dealt (fairly) to four players.
Find P(each player gets an ace)

• Outcomes are: \
fQ~+ ~ i DM e ~[Link] e..'rd!y
- number of outcomes: ? 2~ ,

'11,' ,,,,),,1 "I .
Constructing an outcome witll ·one a ce t or each person:

distribute the aces

distribute the remaining 48 cards


\2.:1'Z.:12~12~
48!
4·3·2· ~~~~~
12! 12! 12! 12!
• Answer:
52!
13! 13! 13! 13!
11
Example: 52-card deck, dealt (fairly) to four players. A sm art sol uti o n
Find P(each player gets an ace)

Stack th e deck, aces o n top

A ·
A .

•• •
--
~ --

• ,
'3~ ~b I,

• • •
'"I"I

'il 50 Lj~ --

= .\05" -- ~

-"--"--"j
12

Common questions

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When repetition is restricted in the creation of license plates (e.g., no repeat of letters or numbers), the number of possible outcomes is calculated differently. For instance, with 2 letters and 3 subsequent digits, if repetition is allowed, there are 26 choices for each letter and 10 for each digit. Without repetition, the choices for the second letter decrease to 25 and subsequent choices follow similar restrictions for the digits. Therefore, the calculation changes from 26^2 * 10^3 to 26 * 25 * 10 * 9 * 8 to accommodate this restraint .

Permutations can be used in probability by considering the order of outcomes. For example, in dice rolls where each roll needs to produce a different outcome, permutations help determine the total number of viable sequences. This is because the sequence matters in ensuring no repetition occurs across the rolls. The fundamental principle is to multiply the number of possible outcomes for each roll, which decreases as more unique results are needed .

Partitions assist in determining how a set of objects can be distributed by considering each possible allocation pattern. For instance, dealing cards to players in a card game can be analyzed using partitions of the deck to decide how many cards go to each player. This involves calculating the number of ways to assign an entire set into groups of specified sizes, such as dividing a deck of 52 cards evenly among 4 players .

The principle of binomial probabilities applies by using the formula P(k heads) = (n Choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where n is the number of tosses, k is the desired number of heads, and p is the probability of getting a head in one toss. This formula calculates the probability of getting exactly k heads in n independent tosses, taking into account all the possible ways k heads could occur among n tosses .

Ordered k-selection differs from simple combinations by taking order into account, which can significantly increase the number of possible arrangements. In combinatorial counting, selecting k items in a sequence from n items (with order) involves permutations, calculated as n!/(n-k)!. This contrasts with combinations, which ignore order and are calculated as n!/(k!(n-k)!). Thus, ordered selection results in more possible configurations, crucial in scenarios where sequence matters .

The probability that all six rolls result in different numbers can be determined by considering the total number of permutations and combinations. The first roll has 6 possible outcomes, the second has 5 (since it needs to be different from the first), the third has 4, and so on. Therefore, the probability is calculated as (6/6) * (5/6) * (4/6) * (3/6) * (2/6) * (1/6) = 6!/6^6 = 720/46656, which simplifies to 5/324 .

Independence in probability ensures that the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another, which is crucial in repeated events. For example, in coin tosses, assuming independence means each toss has the same probability distribution regardless of preceding results. This simplifies calculations and underpins the binomial model, where each toss is an independent Bernoulli trial, vital for accurate probability assessments .

Given event A, where the first two tosses are heads, and event B, where the total number is 3 heads, the probability of A given B, P(A|B), is calculated as P(A ∩ B) / P(B). P(A ∩ B) is the probability of getting heads on the first two tosses and one more head in the remaining 8 tosses. This can be calculated as (1/4) * (7 Choose 1) * (1/2)^8. P(B) is calculated as (10 Choose 3) * (1/2)^10. By calculating these values, one arrives at the correct conditional probability .

To solve a problem using binomial coefficients in the context of partitions, one must first understand how to express the scenario as choices of subsets of particular sizes. Binomial coefficients are used to calculate the number of ways to select k elements from a total of n, expressed as n!/(k!(n-k)!). This approach aids in determining how a set can be decomposed into specific parts, such as teams or distributed items, by systematically evaluating each possible selection of subsets .

A multinomial coefficient generalizes the binomial coefficient for the case where an entire set is divided into multiple subsets of specified sizes. It is expressed as n!/(n_1! * n_2! * ... * n_r!), where n_1, n_2,... n_r are the sizes of the partitions summing to n. It is used to calculate the number of distinct ways to partition a set into subsets such that each subset has a predetermined size, taking into account the permutations within the subsets .

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