FRONTLINE AUGUST 9,2024 » LEADING THE DEBATE SINCE 1984 - WWW, [Link] + 822 Who are the refugees in Kamjong in east Manipur? THESTATES > PAGE34 Chhattisgarh’s naxalite crackdown marred by arrests of activists and Adivasis SPOTLIGHT » PAGE4O The future looks hot India has just emerged from the longest heatwave in its history. Will the government now take climate change seriously? Pi decir ‘FRONTLINE ‘Volume 41 Number 15 —July27-August 9, 2024 -ISSN 0970-1710 - ww [Link] — 116 pages Focus (68) New criminal laws: All change is not reform WORLD AFFAIRS 74) France election: Rise of the Left 78/ Sri Lanka: After Sampanthan, who? MEDICINE ‘81/ The vaccine dialogues ‘947 Interviews Meru Gokhale on Al and creativity ‘97/ mn review v (08) The Fortnight ESTATES '84/ Science Notebook 34/ Manipur: Fleeing from | ston sro. India scorching,....\°:': 109 44a/ lava woos ost COVER STORY eee COLUMN 10/"The country has just emerged from the longest-ever : | 33) Saba Nagy heatwave ints recorded history, and the forecasts for he | 5i/RJP'sdownward spiral future are alarming, especially for urban ares that are facing | in West Bengal ia] CH, Chandiassttiay rapid green cover decline 54/ Andhra Pradesh: 90) Prathyush Parasuraman Capital concerns 06) Letters RELATED STORIES 40/ Chhattisgarh: No 108, On our bookshelf 18/ The many degrees of danger peace without justice 112/ stayingin 24) Future of heatwaves in India hinges on global efforts’ | 44/ Interview with Vijay | 113/ stepping out 26/ Modelling the world we wish o see” Sharma, Deputy CM 14) Back Page 28/ Guest Column: Mita jukherjee ELECTION 2024 6Y/ A turnaround that wasn’t crete aoeFRONTLINE os aa eae obtain oo ecnecii — ce mms eo Coming tr cs esidan sate son fshatcina Soron fon K Ss iene neon Mesremniaamn ohitan Sava Amana, sete roast aise Taira somemierrrans spare emcreton Prana Brereton Fc i 8 cca croc For subseripton and dlvery queties ant Yo Fee 800 $0978 ‘Geistomercre@inennducoin atonal ales Hose ‘Saten Kanon saishimendongtehinducain Dati Antes amar Verma ‘S518796519 ‘angler Gurunatha Rey "Ceess981 Cchennt~Sia uma "Coeasee008 Air Surcharge: Colombo Rs 2000 | Pot air Rs. 15.00 i ea ord ont be foe Inside [Nagraj Adve isthe author of Global Warming in India: Science, Impacts, and Politics (Eklavya 20225 also published in Hind and a member of ‘Teachers Against the Climate Crisis. He hhas published articles on climate change impacts and science, and ‘energy transitions in Economic & Political Weekly, The Hindu, The India Forum, The Wire, Jacobin, India Today, Outlook, Science and Society, and other publications. He has been invited as.a panellist on leading television channels. He lives in Delhi with his, partner, Aparna Balachandran, Mitali Mukherjee is Director of the Journalist Programmes at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Joumalism, University of Oxford. She isa political economy Journalist with more than two ‘decades of experience in TY, print, and digital journalism. She ga evening 2020 Fellow, Raina Fellow 2019, anda 2017 AIYD AV Ke fellow. In 2020, she was nominated for the prestigious Red Ink Awards in India, she is aso a TED speaker. Her key areas ofinterest| oq) e/PaperMc epee ite eteress [Link]/Paperh Partha Majumder grew up in an academic environment that was inspired by two polymaths: Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis and }.B.S. Haldane. He graduated in statistics from the Indian Statistical Insitute. He ‘was convinced that he could make the best use of his knowledge in statistics by generating scientific understanding of the genetic underpinnings of human health and disease. He has spent a lifetime doing just this, gaining national and international fame. He is ‘currently a National Science Chair (Gcientific Excellence). ‘craton Dsctime Readers ae reueseato vet & rake arropite ries satsy erste butte ‘ea oan ahetsaer fore respond ay ptshein ths mage TM PLELISHNG PT UD, IePabster& Owner oftsmopate doesnt ehh aunercly fon 20etsonento eet trig syne savots's oats aorsovens ro wet con Ona le Pe on, [reo tro ane ragutne pany behasresporabeie man manne was 2, ‘tims aan daages or adversonnin is Paasinehe World Meteorological ‘Organization (WMO) defines a heatwave as a period where “local excess heat accumulates over a sequence of ‘unusually hot days and nights". According to The New York Times, the planet experienced its hottest-ever start to the year in 2024. n fact, every month from June 2023 to June 2024 has been the ‘warmest on record for that month. India experienced the longest heatwave this year, with the duration of heatwaves, increasing by about three days in the last 30 years. In 2022, a heatwave in China lasted over 70 days while in the UK the highest temperature recorded that year was 40.3C. ‘What do any of these numbers mean to an average person? Why should governments care and why should we devote a cover story to something one can shrug off with an extra blast of air conditioning? Perhaps we will sit up and take notice ‘when we are told that in 2022, affluent Europe saw more than 60,000 heatrelated deaths. In 2023, WMO Deputy Sectetary-Gerieral Ko Barret said “Extreme heat is increasingly becorning the big silent killer” This might seem like an exaggeration until you realise that a heatwave isnot an isolated event: it often ‘runs parallel to or precedes droughts, forest fires, and floods and thus packs a lethal multiplier punch, even ifit is not always recognised as such. ‘The impact of a heatwave on an intermediate economy like India intensifies because the economic loss it ‘wreaks is as devastating as the loss of life, and because it affects the poorest the ‘most. Extreme heat means lowered productivity and therefore lowered income, loss of crops and livestock, even. lesser access to drinking water, sanitation, and medical care than normal times, besides severe psychological ‘consequences like stress and anxiety. ‘The build-up of extreme heat that leads toa heatwave is generated by global ‘warming. Scientists have found that the Editor’s Note °* earth has steadily grown warmer by about P°C since 1900, and since 2010 the rate of increase has risen to 0.32°C per decade, With excessive greenhouse ses creating a heat tap, the earth is fast becoming. deadly oven. Or, as Nagraj Adve writes in this sue, che heat trapped on earth is “equal tothe energy of roughly nine Hiroshima bombs going off per second”. ‘That is a frightening analogy, and one that ought to move governments sfblly to take climate change more seriously. The heat action plans undertaken in India have significantly reduced deaths, but much more needs tobe done and on an industrial scale, ‘This year, we heard stories from New Delhi of air-conditioner units bursting into flames because of continuous tsege, but what about the energy required to power hundreds of thousands of airconcltioners? Fossil fuel continues tobe the major source of Power, which in tur isthe main cause of global warming, which in turn causes heatwaves. It is a vicious cycle. ‘Which brings us to emissions reduction, that big bugbear of global Ina controversial decision, +50 per cent Caters and rate cas, along the route ofthe cofmanagement postions and 70 percent ofnon-management | Kanwar Yatra in Positionsin industries, factories, and other establishments in the | jquzatarnager, Uttar Sate should be reserved forlocal candidates, said aBilcleared | pradesh, were ordered by by the Karnataka government on July 15 fer sharpcrcism fom | the police to display the industry leaders and trade bodies, the State government ames of onners and announced on July 17 thatthe Bill was“emporeriy withhela" and a | proprietors to “avoid “comprehensive discussion willbe held” before te inal Confusion” among pilgrims. decision Sensing an opportunity, Ministers rom neighboung | after strong Kerala and Andhra Pradesh quickly ited companies to setup | critcism-—Samajwaci Paty shop in thelr States, president and MP Akfilesh Yadav called the move a socal crime’ order > Attack on Trump was made "voluntary During the yaa, Hinds pis wave by fot to Utarakand to calet water from tev Ganga and offer it a Siva temples 557 famershave ded by suicide in fve dts uncer the Amrvat aciinistave dion o Maharastra between anry aniline in 202,93 epot prepares by he Area Divsional Commsssioneat Themarimumnumber of Former S President Donald Trump survvedan assassination | Suede (70) came tom attempt ata campaignrally in Butler Pennsylvania. on uy 13s | Fava tic towed by the 78-year-old Republican presidential candidate was 150 in Yavatmal 1119 deliveringa speech, he washitby [Link] | ®uldhana,92in Akola, and 34 Serve agents mmecatelysuroundedrimandesconecrim | in Wash. The State off stage. A bystander was killed, The shooter, Thomas Matthew | goverment’ Vasantrao Naik Crooks, a 20-year-old white registered Republican, was shot ‘Shetkari Swaviambi Mission dead at the scene by a Secret Service sniper. President Joe ‘said it was trying to fing a Biden condemned the attack saying: “There isno place forthis | Solution to stop farmer kind ofvclencein America "secnonoxe > suicides GR. Sharma Off was sworn as Prime Minister of Nepal forthe fourth time on Jy 15. nthe vote of confidence held on Jy 12 Inthe House of Representatives, 63 lawmakers voted in favour the ousted Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, while 4 voted against, and one abstained Inthe 775-member aflame 138 voles ae needed o prove 3 ‘majo. The 725year-ad Oils expected to bring poltical ‘stabity tothe county, which has seen 14 goverment in the past 16 yearsCover Story The country has just emerged from the longest-ever heatwave in its recorded history, and the forecasts for the future are alarming, especially for urban areas that are facing rapid green cover decline. Divya Gandhi na June this year, northern India turned into a dystopian nightmare: first, hundreds of fruit bats dropped dead from trees as the mercury touched 45°C in Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, giving rise to fears that the animals could spread ci ‘ease. Then, in Jharkhand, a troop of over 30 thi sty monkeys jumped into a well and drowned. A similar fate struck a pack of jackals in the State. ‘The heatwave that seared through parts of the country had ratcheted up temperatures, with Delhi recording nearly 50°C on May 29, ‘The human cost ofthe heatwave this summer has been devastating: as many as 143 people died across the country and 41,789 people suf- {fered from suspected heatstroke between March 1 and june 20, according tothe Union Ministry of Health. The worst hit were the poor, who live in illventilated homes with no cooling appliances. Street vendors, who work outdoors for an aver age of nearly 12 hours a day, were particularly ‘vulnerable to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and fatal heatstrokes, according to a Greenpeace In- v Apatientbeing treatedior heatstroke and exhaustion at New Delhi's LNIP Hospital on June 19. Theheatwave lecto ahuge int ol such patients inhospialsinthe Deli NCR region, dia-National Hawkers Federation survey of 721 street vendors in Delhi between April and May this year. Dr Ajay Chauhan, professor of internal medi- cine at Delhi's Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, ‘id that he had never seen so many patients of hheatstroke in such a short period of time. In June, no fewer than 75 patients came in with ‘symptoms of heatstroke, out of whom 27 died. Deconstructing the heatstroke, Dr Chauhan said: “There are two kinds: classical, that in- volves comorbidities and affects pregnant wo- >12 COVER STORY men, people on certain medication, and the el deriy, and exertional, which involves heat senefated from within the body. This year there has been an overwhelming number of people with exertional heatstrokes: fruit vendors, facto- ry workers, labourers. those who had to cont- nue working despite the weather” ‘Adoctor need a combination of three factors in order to diagnose a patient with heatstroke, he told Frontline. One is an alteration in con- sciousness; two, a body temperature higher than 105*Fahreneit (40.5°C); and three, ahisto- ry of exposure to heat stress [HEN THE CORE BoDY temperature rises, the heart races and produces other symptoms such as headaches and nausea, delirium, and seizures. Heatwaves impact every human organ, from the brain to the heart, intestines, kidneys, liver, lungs, and the pancreas, according to a paper published this year in Environment international, which studied data from several cities, including Ah- medabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi, and Vara- nasi. (Environment International is a peer-re- viewed scientific journal_—_covering. The warming of the Indian Ocean and more frequent EINifio events may lead to more frequent and longer heatwave episodes over India in the future, environmental science and health.) This year’s heatwave has been the longest ever since mete- ‘orological records were maintained in the coun- ty Itwas experienced for about 24 days in diffe. rent parts of the country, according. to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of the India Mete- ‘orological Department. The IMD declares a heat ‘wave when the maximum temperature reaches 40°Cin the plains and 30°C in hilly terrain, ‘This is not the firs time the country has been hit by heatwaves, But they have been increasing in frequency, according to the Environment In- ternational paper. There was a severe two-week heatwave in May 1998, the worst in 50 years; in April 1999, temperatures rose to 40°C; in 2003, there were more than 3,000 heatrelated deaths jn Andhra Pradesh; in May 2010, as many as 1,300 died in Ahmedabad; then, heatwaves oc- curred in rapid succession in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2028. What is the anatomy of a heatwave? What are the meteorological phenomena that make it form? Can we authoritatively link ie to cli- mate change? Are fatal extreme weather events (EWES) projected to increase in the fu ture in India? 3h Sea surface temperature (°C) SOURCE: ROXY MATHEW KOLL Indian Ocean warming (1870-2100) Observation (HadISST) 30 = CMIPG Historical —— cme sspi —— cis ssP2, moderate emissions 29 = CMIPG SSP5, high emissions CIA (Coupled Model Itercomparson Projects aclimate 23 Botelsimlation tom global agencies: 5 (Shared Socioecononie Pathways) are based onthe emission trajectory the world takes~SSPI s the lowest and SSP5 the highest. 2 26 1reper foxy eta. Future projections othe tropical Inclan Ocean. Elsevier, 2024 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Speaking to Frontline, Madhavan Nair Rajee van, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said: “Heatwaves are associated with high pressure {anti-cyclonic flow] inthe middle atmosphere [about 3 to 7 km] which causes a of air (subsidence). This causes the air below to get ‘compressed and heat up.” Headded: “However, many local factors, such aslack ofrain, depleted soil moisture, and urban landscapes, also add tothe genesis of heatwaves. EL Nii aso has an important role to playin the genesis of heatwaves over India, we see that heat= ‘wave frequency is greater ina year folowingan El Nii yeareList year wasn El Nii yea ‘The intricate interplay between EWES in the marine, atmospheric, and terrestrial environ- ments has been the subject of study for Roxy Mathew Koll ofthe Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune. “Marine heatwaves [extreme ocean tempera: tures) can indeed alter weather systems," he told Frontine. {At the National Symposium on Understand ing the Science of Heatwaves under the Warm- When the core body temperature rises, the heart races, and other ‘symptoms include headaches and nausea, delirium, and seizures. Heatwaves impact every human ‘organ, from the brain to the heart, kidneys, liver, and lungs. Agroup of ‘Mustim worshippers takeshetterfrom theheat beforethe startof prayers, at amosquein ‘Ahmedabad on June 7 eee ret iy ing Scenario and Challenges Ahead, held in “March 2024, Koll said that he observed that “an increasing number of marine heatwaves in the Bay of Bengal, riding ona rapid ocean warming, are energising tropical cyclones and driving in- tense heat over the Indo-Pak region”. $ ron ra FUTURE, owing to mido- A ‘guest cabal thin scam wl ver ily experience ‘surface warming of 1.4-3°C between 2020 and 2100, according to Koll and co-authors in a chap- ‘ter of The Indian Ocean and its Role in the Global Gnae Sytem: pushed in 20 Tel fore atin sua ate teins im, praia “jane estas are projected oes from 20 days per ear ing 19702000) fo 220-250 days per year, pushing the tropical In- dian Ocean into a basin-wide near-permanent heatwave state by the end of the 2ist century,” they added (see graph on heating Indian Ocean apne poe. Th al aied a dre frre prognosis sercorhibearewes ic pascal obocee iainamegeey cnsaesar woman ‘This raises concerns for the vulnerable popula- tion that is projected to reach one billion by Sos Taf bythe end ofthe 2 cemry thee quency of summer pa une) heaves over Seed peedubeiiee pee aeciads Scone at te ovea0oe basing Se Setar hngeethc nine ofbaracine Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Re- onc. bUrbanising Bengaluru Land use SB oui up SB Witer GB vegetation > Charting the change in built-up area in Bengaluru over the past 50 years, counresr or nahn, eC Weighing in on the association between heat- ‘waves and global climate change, Rajeevan said: + Bren though theheatwaveisa natural process humaninduced climate change is making it ‘more frequent, longer, and stronger. Past obser- vations suggested that the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are increasing in In- dia, and climate change or global warming could >be contributing to this observed trend.” [HERES AN INCREASING trend in the fe- ‘quency and intensity of heatwaves across India, according toa 2024 paper published in Climate Dynamics by Rajib Chatto- padhyay of IMD, Pune, and others. They sai “This is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PCO) Sth Assessment Report (ARS), which stated some time back that an increase in frequency, duration, and intensity ‘of heatwaves will be ‘very likely over most land areas’ wel into the future. ‘The authors added: “The humidity-driven, moist heat stress conditions are showing an creasing trend over the indian region, especially in the eastern coastal states, which cause discomfort.” Experts ‘wam that between 2020 and 2100, the Indian ‘Ocean will very likel ‘experience surface warming of 14°C 103°C, In the country’s urban areas, the effects of a heatwave on the human body can be height- .chéd by the heabisland effect, where the ur- ‘ban microclimate is made hostile by shrinking green cover and increasing heatabsorbing sur- faces. A case in point is Bengaluru, India’s “gar den city”, which saw record-breaking high tem- peratures anda severe water crisis this summer. In a 2023 paper published in Advances in En- vironmental and Engineering Research, TV. Ra- machandra of the Centre for Ecological Scienc- ¢s, Indian Institute of Science (Sc), Bengaluru, ‘sad: “The increase in paved surfaces and the re- ‘duction in green spaces have contributed to the turban heat island effect in Bangalore, with in- creased Land Surface Temperature (LST) from 33.07 degrees Celsius to 41.14 degrees Celsius (in urban areas) of March to May from 1992t0 2017.” ‘The built-up area in Bengaluru went up from. about 8 per cent in 1973 to 86.6 per cent in 2023, ‘with a concurrent decrease in green cover and water bodies (See map of an urbanising Bengalur ‘Tirthankar Banerjee, an assistant professor at the Institute of Environment an Sustainable De- velopment, Banaras Hindu University, said:“The urban microclimate is regulated by green space, urban growth, albedo {fraction of light re- flected), and other ancillary parameters. Warm- cer temperatures caused by urban heat islands ‘exhort adltional heat stress, and potentially in tefact with heatwaves to exacerbate mortality or morbidity risk” STUDY OF THE DEADLY 2022 heatwave inindia and Pakistan, published in Emi- ronmental Research Climate in 2023, ca- tegorically states that “human-caused climate ‘change made thisheatwave about IC hotter and, 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 cli- mate, as compared to the 1.2°C cooler, pre-in- dustrial climate”, On the future, the paper states, rather omi- ously: “Under a future global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2 20 times more likely) and hoter [by up to 15°C] ‘compared to now.” Co-author Krishna AchutaRao, a professor at the IT Dethi, told Frontine: “India isa hot coun- ty that has regions where every summer tem- peratures [for a few days] are high enough to be termed ‘heatwaves”. However, due to global ‘warming, increases in temperature into heat- —— Inurban areas, the effects ofa heatwave on the human body canbe heightened bythe “heat island” effect. Acase in pointis Bengaluru. v During ahot summer afternoon in P12y20'2) ‘on une 10, when the country was inthe grip ‘ofa heatwave, the longest ever tohitthe county. ‘wave conditions are now more frequent in these regions (lasting for more days}; regions that did not previously experience heatwaves have the phenomenon occurring. Therefore, we can ex- ‘pect heatwave conditions more frequently.” He added: “Before the rise in human-caused ‘warming, heatwaves would happen once in a few years. But now, with climate change, it ap- pears to be occurring nearly every year.” Heeatwaves are not the only fatal EWEs that have begun to ravage India with increasing fre- ‘quency. In a 2021 paper in Weather and Climate Extremes, co-authored by Rajeevan, scientists analysed mortalities from floods, tropical cy- ‘clones, cold waves, lightning strikes, and heat ‘waves, in the country over a 50-year period. US- ing data from the IMD from 1970 to 2018, they found that the number of each of these EWES, ‘except cyclones, has increased sigificanty. ‘As for mortality, they said: “The maximum >Extreme weather events and deaths 4000 300 R=08144 12000 be owe 3 150 000 8 BERREEEGERE 88 vears — [Link] events —— Human death Linear (No. of events Linear (Human death) Year-nise number of extreme weather events and number of deaths, at alhinga evel based on IMD data ‘SOURCE: WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTRENES 2023, KAMALIT RAVETAL, ‘mortalities reported in the last decade were 49 per cent due to floods, followed by 24 per cent due to heatwaves.” HE WARMING OF THE Indian Ocean and, ‘more frequent El Nifio events may lead to more frequent and longer heatwave | 1UGNsaysthat episodes over India in the future, the paper | climate change wamed, affects at least —| ‘The authors said: “In India, among the major | 10,967specieson ‘States, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, | theIUGN Red List, Kerala, and Maharashtra were found to be having | and iftemperarures ‘maximum mortality rates due to EWEs inthe last |_increase by 2°¢by ‘two decadesjid thus; thereisa needto consider | »-2100; about 18 per, ‘these States with priority for developing disaster | cent ofallspecies ‘management action plans” (see graph of number | willbe aa high rik | of extreme weather events and deaths). of extinction. ‘There are murmurs of a heating nation in the behaviour of wildlife too, Birds that inhabit trop- ical montane forests in the Eastern Himalaya are shifting their ranges to higher elevations rapidly, “with strong evidence that such upslope shifts are a result of rising temperatures globally", ac- ‘cording to a paper published in 2023 in Global Ecology and Conservation. ‘The paper was authored by scientists from, ‘The human cost of the heatwave has been devastating: across the country, as many as 143 people died and 41,789 people suffered from suspected heatstroke between March 1 and June 20. the Centre for Ecological Sciences, Se. The scientists used mist nets, made of nylon and strung between two poles, to capture and ring the birds and then studied them over a period of 10 years, This study of as many as 61 insectivo- species, including the longttailed I, lesser rackettalled drongo, the grey- throated babbler, and yellow-throated fulveta, revealed thatthe birds had moved to higher ati- tudes primarily because of logging and climate change. ‘Speaking to Frontline, Umesh Srinivasan, co author of the paper, said: “Climate change will lead to species shifting their ranges upwards un- til they run out of space and ultimately go ex- tinct. This has already happened in other moun- tain ranges and is commonly called the ‘escalator to extinction’? He added: “When species move up, they can «either move into undisturbed or disturbed for- cst, Populations that move up into disturbed for: fest are much less likely to be viable than popula tions that move into undisturbed forest. Climate ‘change and deforestation, therefore, can com- bine to have: ‘on biodiversity.” PANWHILE, THE FUTURE of our envi- ronment appears bleak to none other than scientists from the IPCC. A sur: yey bypThe Guardian of neatly 400 IROCseien- ‘ists, published in May 2024, reflected deep pes simism about the future ofthe planet. Almost 80 per cent expected a temperature rise, in this century, of at least 2.5°C above pre‘ndustrial le- vels, shooting past the international target of 15°C. Many saw a *semi-dystopian” future, “with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by hheatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an in- tensity and frequency far beyond those that hhave already struck". ‘The survey also prompted responses from several prominent climate figures. One solemn ‘message came from the official spokesperson, for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres: “The battle to keep 15 degrees Celsius alive will ‘be won or lost in the 2020s, under the watch of political and industry leaders today. They need. to realise we are on the verge of the abyss. The science is clear and so are the world’s scientists. ‘The stakes for all humanity could not be high- cr.” And India's humanity could not be more vulnerable. =Ba MANY, ¢R RS | ry eC vy Bb As abnormally high temperatures and heatwaves become more frequent, the government needs to take much stronger action over the long term. NAGRAJ ADVE are experiencing the fur ture. The global average temperature over the past ‘year has been L.6°Chigher than the pre-industrial av- erage. June 2024 was the 13th consecutive month in which global average tem- peratures not just broke-but shattered the récord for the month. One factor is the recent El Nifo, the pe- riodic oceanic atmospheric phenomenon that releas- es some of the massive heat stored in the oceans. Hos ‘wever, the latest El Nifio was nowhere as strong asthe super El Nirio of 2015-16, and yet the world is alot ‘warmer now. ‘This suggests that the underlying cause fo the ex: treme heat is relentless global warming due to green house gases emitted into the atmosphere, whieh trap heat equal to the energy of roughly nine Hiroshima bombs per second, or about 7,77,600 such bombs each day, year after year. Also deeply concerning is that the pla gun warming a lot faster since 2010, ateer cuits CESS Conor] GHG EMISSIONS BY SECTOR a : Sa ea Se ed GL ace ‘ Care) i) roteniccmeiccr occ worldwide, 1990-2022 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent/year) Se Fees th een eras cor rrr Fro Fr) 2005 2010 cory Err20 COVER STORY rate of 0.32 per decade: 80 per cent faster than the 0.18°Ca decade over 1970-2010. This is likely caused by a dectine in aerosols, tiny pollu- tants in the atmosphere that reflect the sun's ra diation and mask warming, In India too, 2023 was the second warmest ‘year in 122 years of recorded temperatures (after 2016), according to the India Meteorological De- partment. The heat was made worse in 2024 by very little snow in many Himalayan regions and litle rain in the premonsoon period in many parts of the country. Consequently, millions of people, mostly workers, have suffered scorching daytime temperatures over an unusually long period. For instance, Delhi faced 38 consecutive days with temperatures above 40°C. This was ‘worsened by high humidity and very high night- time temperatures (the minimum temperature in Delhi touched 39°C, more than the maximum ‘temperature of many of the world’s cities). The societal impacts ofthis, both direct and indirect, have been deeply unequal, ranging from deaths from heatstroke, hospitalisation, re- ‘duced ability to work, and frequent power cuts, toa decline in the production of key food crops such as wheat, and higher prices of vegetables, all of which have inordinately affected those least responsible for the problem. HAT HAs THE state response boen2, ‘The primary response of the Cen- tral and State governments to ex treme heat stress events has been the creation and implementation of heat action plans (HAPS) at different levels of political units. Ithas been re- Ported that HAPs are operational in 23 States and across 100 districts in the country. The key elements of HAPs and their imple- ‘mentation are as follows: One, activation of early ‘waming systems based on five-day temperature predictions, and colour-coded alerts when tem- The primary response of the Central and State governments to. extreme heat stress events has been the creation of heat action plans. HAPs are oper: 23 States and across 100 districts. > Anelectric vehiele caraing station sel up by theKSEBin Palakkad, Kerala, 2022 picture Inadequate charging Infrastructureis oneofthekey feasons why electric carsales have beeniow, peratures cross three thresholds, typically, ye low at 41°C, orange at 43°C, and red at 45°C, though [the thresholds may vary for different ‘places. Two, building of public “awareness ‘through radio, posters, pamphlets, and different ‘media, including social media. Three, urban in terventions such as enabling cool roofs with paints that reduce indoor temperatures. by 3-4°C, and sending out mobile vans that distri- bute water free. Four, public health interven- tions such as training medical personnel to re- ‘cognise and treat patients with heatstroke (this ‘year, a heat ward was set up at Ram Manohar Lo- hia Hospital in Delhi with iced water infrastruc- ture that helps bring down body temperatures quickly), As a consequence of allthis, heat stress mor- tality in India has declined significantly, from a peak of around 2,000 deaths in 2015-16 to 189 confirmed deaths from heat stress in 2023, ac- cording to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, However, itis likely that mortality num: bers from heatstroke are underestimated, given how these deaths are often recorded. Much more is needed, and at many levels. In an analysis of 37 HAPs across 18 States in 2023,the Centre for Policy Research found that “near- Iyall HAPs are poor at Kenting and targeting srichpble sreureh epjerorerrares deriay (oH ad Heatwave Bet henna here 2 need for oeal and deta vulneraty map ping to enabiea more targeted and prompt re ponse, We also need a more granular estimation of temperature and humidity levels at which mortality and morbidity occur in different re- ons ofthe county, Hest also need tobe oie as a fst” under the Disaster Man ‘igemient/Act, 2005, which would enable larger hd more cused funding Some other Improvements need to be em- ployment-specific, In conversation, senior trade union leaders said that factories and workplaces need powerful industrial fans and proper venti- Talon, shorter work sift high heat areas tnt oso pay, and more breaks fo woe Id those who work with waste workers have cai is esetal give them acces to regular water supply shade, or rate) col bul hear lands, and’ prompt acces to medical (oe when neceasary importa state actors need to improve the socal condtons that would help reduce Or re Curnont Bdiasters are notified inthe Guidelines on Constitutionand Administration ofthestate Disaster Response Fund ‘and National Disaser Response Fund. Heatwaves need tobeaddedto thelist ‘vent the incidence of heatstroke. These could be done in four ways: one, by carrying out exten: ive water harvesting and equitable distribution ‘of water; two, by building more robust and less ‘cramped housing for working people in urban areas with suitable materials (employment gua: rantee schemes could be widely deployed for both these measures, which would also help ad- dress the jobs crisis); three, by expanding and strengthening mohalla clinics as they are more ‘widely distributed than large, tertiary hospitals and can respond to heat crises more quickly ‘and four, by having open consultations with un- ions, women’s organisations, and other civil so ciety groups on what might help people the most. Given the faster rate of warming, we need to plan urgently not just for the present but also for the future. OWEVER, ADAPTATION IS only one part of dealing with extreme heat. The other partis mitigation, the reduction ‘of greenhouse gases. As a landmark 2020 report titled “Assessment of Climate Change over the >Indian Region” by the Ministry of Earth Sciences states, greenhouse gas emission trajectories will directly influence the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events in India in the decades to come. Efforts at reducing emissions need to be global, of course, but how has India fared in this? ‘The Central government, several policy ana- Iysts, and the media regulary claim that India is doing better than most countries in reducing po- ‘ential emissions. This view is incomplete in its framing. A holistic examination of India's emis- sions would consider three other factors: one, the large number of deaths from air pollution ev ery year in India, to which coal/fossil fuel burn- ingisa significant contributor; two, that poor In- dians are, and will continue to be, among the ‘worst impacted by climate change; and three, recent research which says that global carbon dioxide emissions need to fall sharply to 89 bil- lion tonnes a year (from 44 billion, including from deforestation, in 2022) for atmospheric (C0 levels to stabilise. And they need to globally reach “net zero”-where anthropogenic remo- vals equal emissions-for the planet to stop ‘warming any further. Against this background, a complacent com- Parison against poorty performing industrialised ‘countries misses the point and can be massively ‘daimagings Iistead, the question should beare, ‘we doing enough in key sectors? What can be done better? Pur differently, how could our ener- ‘gy transition be faster and more just? Within the electricity sector-the key sector in any energy transition—official data from the Central Electricity Authority indicate that over the past few years, electricity capacity has ex- panded to a significant degree only in solar and ‘coal. Even with solar, fora range of reasons, on- ly 9 of57 planned solar parks had been complet ‘ed as of 2023, Wind power capacity expansion The Central government, policy analysts, and the media claim that India is doing better than most countries in reducing potential emissions. This view is incomplete inits framing. v Awoman carrying water home on the outskints of Jammu. slowed down after reverse auctions (in which suppliers submit bids and the lowest bid wins) ‘were introduced in 2017, although this may now improve with the discontinuation of reverse auctions last year, wind-specfic renewable pur ‘chase obligations, and the plan to auction 10 gi- gawatts a year. While ‘considering renewables, the focus needs to be on electricity generation rather than capacity because that is a true reflection ofits contribution. Partly because of the factors men- tioned above and partly because of the constraint ofintermittency, and with large-scale battery stor: age silat an incipient stage in India, the share of electricity generated from new renewables i still Tw. It was just 13 per cent last year, 25 per cent if ‘one includes large hydropower projects. Meanwhile, the share of coal/thermal pow. cer has remained at about 75 per cent, with hardly any reduction over the last decade. more, coal expansion continues the government has auctioned several‘rues as an added attraction-and awarded 23, closed or discontinued coal mines to private ‘companies. This is part ofa broader plan to add 80 gigawatts to India's thermal capacity bby 2031-32. In sectors other than electricity, the shifts have been, unsurprisingly, even more modest. Intranspor, the focus has been on fuel eficien- cy and electric vehicles (EVs), but EVs have been dominated by errickshaws and two-whedlers Electric cars constituted just 5 per cent of EVs sold in India in 2023 because ofthe high cost, sufficient knowledge about them, and inad uate charging infrastructure. The latter should improve after the recent policy measure to offer space along national highways to private compa nies to set up charging stations. But an added hurdle to the transition is that the petroleum sector contributes massively to government re- venues; it accounted for Rs.7,48,718 crore in 2022-23, As for urban areas, India’s Long-term Low Carbon Development Strategy, launched in No While considering renewables, the focus needs to be on electricity generation rather than capacity because that is atrue reflection ofits contribution. NGER 23, ‘vember 2022, highlights “material efficiency in buildings, and sustainable urbanization”, Ho- ‘wever, commercial interests ensure that the real- ity has been poor enforcement, building over floodwater sinks, and housing expansion by private companies that is heavily tilted towards ‘Providing for the well-of, all of which is neither sustainable nor equitable, Itis in the interest of its own people that In- dia's energy transition is faster and that rising emissions (ee Figure D slow down. Historically, ‘energy transitions have taken many decades. A key challenge for India in enabling a faster ener- gy transition is mobilising the investment need- ced, Its telling that clean energy investment in CChina-overwhelmingly the largest source of re- newable power in the world-in 2023 alone to- talled $890 billion, larger than the entire GDP of ‘Switzerland, But the effort has to be global ‘T THE END of the day, extreme heat events in India are influenced by global greenhouse gas emissions (and not just India’s) and because oftheir accumulated stock inthe atmosphere, not just annual flows. Given the complex trade-offs such as warm- {ng due to reduced aerosols mentioned above, global emissions need to fall sharply for heat stress events not to expand and intensify further. In this tegard, the past threeidecades have not ‘been encouraging. Despite over 30 years of ol ‘mate negotiations, global greenhouse gas emis sions were 62 per cent higher in 2022 than they ‘were in 1990 (See Figure 2). The onus to cut back sharply is on those historically responsible for that accumulated stock, which (except China) is rooted in their grim history of colonial plunder and military aggression. ‘We need to identify and address the underly- ing structural causes for this rise. They include an elite fixation with very high rates of economic ‘growth; the inherent character of private entities to maximise profits; growing inequalities of in ‘come and wealth; and a rampant urbanisation often driven by rural deprivation. In the absence of addressing these root causes and bringing down emissions drastically, working people may be facing a future too frighteningly hot and hu- mid to contemplate. Nagra Adve is member Teachers Against he Cate (Cis and the author of Gaba Warming nnd Science, Impacts. and Pots.: 4 2 Sha i I oy ae $} m f tate governments and f Ga ae ene eae scrambled to implement heat action plans (HAPs) India reeled under heatwaves that killed 58 people in New Delhi alone. The HAP provides guidelines to the State or district authorities on what they can, and should, do to mitigate the impact of a heatwave. The Centre for Policy Research in 2023 studied 37 HAPS at State, district, and city levels and found that only three of them had identified clear funding routes for their implementation. ‘The Center for Study of Science, ¥ Technology and Policy (CSETP), a Inaconversation 9° Mi Oogeecsn 7 | Bengaluru, has built a tool to track gt nS diurnal temperatures forall districts. Ro Ceres Frontline spoke with Indu K. Murthy, principal esearch scientist and sector DS head of climate, environment, and discusses targeted sustainability at CSTEP, on the importance of HAPs and other tailored strategies to mitigate the impact of Beer es Rete) heatwaves. Cece Err aur mitigating the impact of heatwaves? ‘What role éan the state play in States will need to develop mescelati pte comprehensive HAPs that are tailored posed oh for local conditions and include early Henne aa warning systems, health advisories, a and measures for vulnerable CUT populations. Iis also important that States integrate heatwaves into broader disaster management frameworks to censure a coordinated response so that healtheare facilities are prepared to tackle increased heat related illnesses during summers, ‘Educating the public on heatwave risks and preventive measures is Important as well. Additionally the creation of blue and green spaces and heat resilient infrastructure, along with improvements in data collection and ‘monitoring systems to measure the efficacy of plans and their implementation, isa must.‘COVER STORY » “FUTURE OF HEATWAVES Empowering local bodies through ‘clear guidelines and legal frameworks to enforce heat mitigation measures, and facilitating interagency ‘coordination for better heatwave response should also be considered bby the stare to support local bodies in their efforts. ‘Are HAPS sufficient intervention, given that temperatures have nearly reached 50°C? ‘The severity of temperatures necessitates a multifaceted approach that involves broader societal and infrastructural changes, besides ‘continued refinement in plans and their implementation, Certain strategies can enable adaptabily. For instance, the continuous monitoring and evaluation of the local climate and trends to understand how temperatures are ‘changing overtime can provided information for updating heataction thresholds and response triggers. Wealso need to adopt flexible response protocols that can be scaled up in intensity as temperatures rise. ‘Gariering community feedback on HAPS and incorporating i into the adaptation process isa must as local [knowledge can provide valuable insights into specific vulnerabilities and adaptation needs. Governments must support research and innovation in heat resilience technologies and strategies, given the constant need to explore new cooling technologies, building materials and urban design concepts tomitgate the impact of extreme heat, HAPS must be integrated with broader climate adaptation and ‘emergency response strategies for better water management, creation ‘of energy supply resilience, and healthcare response. What strategies can the state adopt to address heatwave con: ‘cerns in rural and urban India? Itis crucial to recognise, in order to devise tailored strategies, the distin challenges faced by rural and urban areas when heatwaves occur. In rural Inia, acess to resources and infrastructure could be limited, requiring the state to prioritise public awareness and education, such as communityled awareness campaigns in local languages on the risks of heatwaves and the preventive measures needed. Ensuring timely weather forecasts and alerts through community radios and SMS services could aso help. ‘Additionally, providing shaded areas, ensuring access to safe drinking ‘water in public spaces, improving housing conditions by incorporating natural cooling techniques in design, ‘and supporting early morning or Jate-evening work shifts for outdoor Jabourers could improve resilience against heatwaves in rural areas. Inurban India, the focus should ‘be on establishing cooling centres in densely populated areas—with ar conditioning and cool drinking ‘water-to serve asa refige during extreme heat events extypromoting green spaces find ‘urban planning iniatves are crucial to reduce the urban heat sland fect, and thereby creating cooler environments for residents. Initiating and strengthening builing regulations to promote heatresilient designs and infrastructure, improvements in public transport, and effective water ————— “Governments must supportresearch in heat resilience technologies, given the need to explore new cooling technologies, building materials, and urban design concepts.’ ;DIA HINGES ON GLOBAL EFFORTS’ 25 ynagement are also vital. But irrespective of the region (rural or urban), strengthening ‘emergency response preparedness and social support networks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the homeless, are extremely crucial ‘Such targeted strategies-when effectively implementedcan safeguard communities across India ‘against the escalating risks posed by heatwaves. At the most recent COP, countries agreed to phase down and not phase out carbon emissions. What impact will this have on heatwaves in India in the future? Is India doing enough? “Phasing down", as against “phasing cout", of carbon et global level. While the decision to phase down emissions is a step in the right direction, its impact on future hheatwaves in India hinges on global efforts Atthe national evel, India has Deen proactive indiddressing climate ‘change, in line with its commitments under the Paris Agreement. These efforts include setting targets to reduce emissions intensity and increase renewable energy adoption. However, the effectiveness of these ‘measures in mitigating heatwaves depends on factors such as implementation speed, technological advancements, and international collaboration. Continued international cooperation and concerted actions by all countries, including India, are crucial to combat climate change impacts, including heatwaves. This necessitates not only emissions reduction but also effective and robust adaptation strategies to build resilience against climate extremes. = Maula Canis an independent ournast basedin Mumba> Asitin protest during COP2I, the UN Climate Change Conferencein Le Bourget, north of Pars. on December, 2035, rancarsuomuar ‘Modelling the world we wish to see’ Researchers in India have designed a framework for climate mitigation modelling that places equity front and centre, in terms of both energy and climate justice. risHika PARDIKAR na study published on june 17 in the journal Climate and Deve lopment, researchers with the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and the M.S. Swaminathan Re- search Foundation, Chennai, presented a new framework they designed for modelling climate action that foregrounds equity. The results showed that while limiting warming to 15 degrees Celsius—as is required under the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference in 2015-would need all ‘countries to undertake far greater emission reductions than they have so far, the manner in which such efforts are shared among countries varies significantly depending on whether equity i factored in or not. ‘The authors of the paper modelled climate mitigation action on the basis of the developmental levels of countries rather than the standard ‘geographical classification used by the most dominant form of modell- 26 Cover Story ing: integrated assessment models, (AMS) The reasoning is that the his- torical responsibility for climate change and the capability to under- take climate action depend on levels, (of development, not on the geograph- ical location of countries. “The Global South has a fourfold challenge” said ‘Tejal Kanitkar, one of the authors of the paper and an asso- ciate professor in the Energy, Environ- ‘ment, and Climate Change Pro- gramme at the NIAS. The fourfold challenge isto address developmental needs, adapt to climate change, deal with loss and damage due to the ‘warming that has already occurred, and contribute to climate change miti- gation. “Modelling frameworks that ddo not at least attempt to address this fourfold challenge are not very useful for policy.” she added. The frame- ‘work, she said, presented in the paper is “the first step" towards concretely addressing concerns that have repeat: edly been raised by developing coun- tries about the existing framework that violates the principles of equity ‘enshrined in the UN Framework Con sention on Climaté Change. ‘The Iniergovernmental Panel on (Climate Change (POO) uses modelled, pathways drawn using IAMS to assess hhow much mitigation action will be necessary to limit warming of the cearth’s surface. The paper says that mitigation can be modelled without using IAMs, which it characterises as “complicated and inaccessible”. ‘The authors place countries in four developmental categories: Gt, G2, G3, and G4 where Glis the highest level of development and G4 the lowest. Glin- cludes countries such the US, the UK, Switzerland, Germany, France, the UAE, Qatar, and Australia. G2 includes China, Brazil, taly, and Malaysia. G3 includes India, Indonesia, Pakistan, "Namibia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, Ge includes Nepal, Burkina Faso, Ke- nya, Ghana, and Zimbabwe. For con- text, G4 countries face multidimen- sional poverty where the per capita‘COVER STORY + GDP is 17 times less than those in GI. The per capita GDP of G2 countries s around three times Jess than those in Gi, while that of G3 is almost six times less than those of Gi. ‘The researchers used developmental indica: tors to estimate energy thresholds, which is the point beyond which higher energy consumption ‘may not necessarily lead to higher development. Itis important to note here that these thresholds are dependent on factors such as health, educa- tion, and infrastructure and go beyond poverty alleviation thresholds that tend to assume peo tions are limited to just crossing the «which development groups that are above these ‘energy thresholds reduce energy consumption to this level and those below this threshold in- ‘crease energy consumption to reach this evel by 2050. Then, they imposed carbon budget con: straints where countries across development groups can access thei far share of the remain- ing carbon budget to limit warming to either L5Cor2c. ‘The results showed thatthe mitigation efforts required by Gl countries are six times higher if ‘equity is considered compared with scenarios ‘where equity is compromised. And the climate effort by G4 countries is doubled if equity s not ‘considered. “The bulk of current modelling studies typi cally project existing economic trends into the furure and then superimpose mitigation con: straints on these trends. Discussions ofthe feas- ibilty of achieving mitigation outcomes at low le- vels of income are typically carried out outside the scope of the models. In contrast, we invert the process by modelling the world we wish to see Gin terms of development as wel as climate), and then discuss the question of attaining this I" the paper states. In essence, the current framework offers no scope to foreground equity:When equity is in- deed considered, it isan afterthought and manif- cess as a post: modelling consideration. In con: trast, the new paper places equity front and centre in terms of both energy and climate Justice. ‘The new regional classification presented in this research throws into stark relief the coun: tries that have been left behind in global deve- opment and the importance of considering, ‘equitable levels of energy consumption in alloca: The authors arenow working towards ‘expanding this new framework toinclude gases other than carbon dioxide and across sectors. AMsare highly ‘compex computer ‘models that draw fromahostof alsiplinessis model project GDP, ts energy ‘model show future ‘consumption patterns; vegetation models examinelanduse changes; and its cearti-system | ‘models use the las of hss to understand how the climate evolves under diferent “MODELLING THE WORLD WE WISH TO SEE” 7 tions of the limited global carbon budget, said Kate Dooley, a research fellow in the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Melbourne. Dooley has pre- viously studied how effortsharing under the Pa- rs Agreement often lacks an ethical framework that takes equity into account. “This work pre- sents new and up-to-date equity indicators for sustainable development in the energy sector, which should provide a benchmark for climate scenario development going forward,” she Sa A Dished on March 4 2024, inthe joural Cimate ol) oa tt sero a insite pa eee eee er considering the developmental necessities of the Global South nor the historical responsibility of the Global North, The pret stiy dels only with carbon dioxide and assesses action by countries as a tole otspeceserssuch stn oaualtauues is cakereeme Retswanecapaning tienen Bevel te clude gases other than carbon dioxide and across sectors. The objective, Kanitkar said, is to produce a series of scenarios that operationalise ‘equity. “The oft-cited excuse [for not consider: ssueqiyinrvselgltutheriewes i Eieeteereebee eri erie vate re erie gi ig ie cp nising fairness and equity in terms of energy ‘needs and a just transition in developing coun- tries,” said Shivika Mittal, a senior researcher at the Center fr Itematoad mat Research remy Dut one npn cect thatthe i revert mie ie pact diate change ait cosmic a a esc mo TAMEbased scenarios assessed by the IPCC in- clude such impacts of climate change. But more broadly, this aspect has not been dealt with enough in modelling literature. The world will Se ak cae tapers IB ero Fe "Se eee fe ciate chung seal Ue ludgced Se atacgei as ees Scmnytiy te eae pla eres nt eatin ere, epee he verb de ‘veloping countries,” Mittal explained. » Fas ata meter pr bd Sngncunnocs eens N EARLIER sTuy led by Kanitkar (pu* Guest Column [ SUM AND SUBSTANCE ] MITALI MUKHERJEE is 2 poltical economy journalist with over tuo decades of experience across different mediums. Time to turn up the heat The recent heatwave is a wake-up call for the government to work towards building economic resilience. Whatis the government actually doing? his book The Heat Will Kill You First Life and Death on a Scorched Planet, Jeff Goodell writes: “We simply have not come to terms with it, especially in the way Lam describ- ing. It is not how anyone expects to die. In part, its because we live in a technolog- ically advanced world where it's all to easy to believe that the rough forces of nature have been tamed. But i's also because our world is ‘changing so fast that we can't grasp the scale and urgency of the dangers we face.” Inidia came face to face withthat realityover the past few weeks. The heatwave it expe” rienced, the longest ever and during which a marathon election was held, had, atlast count, claimed 143 recorded deaths and close to 42,000 people had succumbed to suspected heatstroke. ‘The intense heat did not pop up like a sur prise shower on a balmy afternoon. India saw fan extreme heatwave in March 2022, which ‘was the hottest in India since records began 122 years ago, and extreme humid heat in April 2023, when 13 casualties due to heat stroke ‘were reported from Navi Mumbai, Maharash- — This year's heatwave may hit wheat ‘output and also impact the yield of crops suchas rice and sugar. Heat also affects crop quality. tra, on one day alone, Most recently, a study by the World ‘Weather Attribution initiative confirmed that, one, extreme hheat in South Asia during the pre monsoon season is becom- ing more frequent; and two, that climate change has played key role in ratcheting up the 2024 April mean temperature. Extreme temperatures are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85°C hotter. In other words, heat across India isnot just increasing, itis steadily ticking higher on the back of human- caused actions. Only a few days after facing its most deadly heatwave, n- dias capital, New Delhi, saw five people dein rainrelated in- cidents even as streets and houses were flooded, sewage gut ter were Women crowd around a water tanker inNew Delhi on June 24,2024, pears sncimeuTERs ‘The potential income loss in 2021~in the service industry, ma- ‘nufacturing, agriculture, and construction sectors-from la: }our capacity reduction due to extreme heat was estimated at $159 billion for India; that is over 5 per cent of the country’s ‘GDP. Power demand is surging, even as coal stockpiles are run- low: India already faced an acute power shortage in 2022. ‘What is the track record of the Narendra Modi government against this clear and present danger of heat? At COP26 (UN Climate Change Conference) in 2021, the Prime Minister pledged to reach net zero by 2070. Today, coal still accounts for over 50 per cent of the country's energy needs. Surely the Prime Minister is aware that burning fossil fuel and razing for fest cover isa recipe for disaster in a country where nearly 90 per cent of its districts are believed to be in a “danger zone from heatwave impact? ‘The National Democratic Alliance government also holds the unique distinction of issuing environmental clearances at a speed India has never seen before. So much so that ahead of30 GUEST COLUMN the just concluded general election, the Elee- tion Commission of India (ECD, after an intial refusal, allowed the Environment Ministry to issue green clearances while the Model Code ‘of Conduct was in force. The Parivesh Portal, set up to track clearances for large projects, shows that in 2024, already 675 projects have been granted environmental clearance. In 2023, the then Union Minister of State for Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Ashwini Kumar Choubey, told Parliament that the time taken to grant environmental and ‘coastal clearances had reduced from over 150 days in 2019 tole than 70 days in 2022, while forest clearances had seen the waiting time re- duced by about a week to around 180 days. In 2022, an amnesty window opened in March 2017 for six months to clear projects in novel “violation category” was converted in- ‘toa routine presence through an Environment try notification. The window provided ex post facto approval to over 100 projects until the Supreme Court stayed the notification in January 2024, Many of these clearances have a quid pro quo element to them. Take Vedanta Ltd: the mining conglomerate has been accused of running a covert campaign to allow mining ‘companies to significantly boost production without having to secure newenvironmental ‘clearances, It has been & repeat offender in en- vironmental violations across its mining, and oil and gas projects in India, and it now emerg: ¢s that Vedanta is also the buyer of electoral bonds worth Rs400+ crore, as per data re- leased by State Bank of India. AMPANT ENVIRONMENTAL clearanc es for large industrial projects are ‘wreaking havoc on India’s climate. Himachal Pradesh has seen four-lane high- ‘ways rip into its hills even as unplanned build- —== Heat disproportionately hits the ‘economically disadvantaged, squeezing their access to water, electricity, and medical care. > A child with head covered to protect irom the heat, n Jammuon [Link] {ngs on riverbanks collapsed like Jenga blocks in the face of torrential rain—a clear example of the damage that excess and irresponsible development can do. Even as heat sears through northern India, at the other end. of the country, plans are afoot to build a $9 billion mega infras- ‘ructure project on Great Nicobar Island. This involves a mas- sive transshipment terminal, an airport, a township, and a gas and solar power plant, all of which will come atthe cost of fell ing over 13,000 hectares of rainforest. India's economy will see serious damage when hit by sev eréheatwaves, exacerbated by dwindling ireen cover and ve- ‘ban living spaces that are collapsing under rising water and electricity demand. Lives come before economic damage. The administration has been woefully unprepared in heat prepa- redness, starting with the myopic and criminally obtuse deci- sion by the ECI to hold a general election over 44 days in the peak of a dangerously hot summer. s, but nan in- the economi- esis eee iiee (eee eee ceares ity, and. medical care. Indias poor do not live in airconditioned homes and leafy neighbourhoods; they vein cramped housing with poor insulation and cooling mechan- ‘isms. Neither do they have pumps that suck water from the ve- tywomb of the earth. Instead, they race behind water tankers and queue up inthe baking heat fora bucket of water. In another sphere of this apocalyptic situation, doctors wee i ‘mersing patients in icy water even as surgeries got postponed due toa lack of water and the long power outages. “The heatwave has been followed by the onset ofa partcu- Janly strong monsoon thats presenting fresh set of chaleng es. But the government cannot let this memory fade away. The government can live in denial, the voters will not. Because itis they wino pay the biggest price during heatwaves. =2 Column [ FROM THE SIDELINES ] SABA NAQVLis a Delhi-based journalist and author of four books, who writes on polities and identity issues. Can the AAP survive? Ofall opposition parties, the AAP has faced the most furious onslaught by the Central government. Given how small the party is, it would be interesting to know why the mighty BJP directs so much wrath against here is some hope among la- ‘wyers and members of the ‘AAP that their party's na- tional convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejri- ‘wal may get bail in the fore seeable future in the cases activated by dife- rent agencies, as could his right hand, the former Deputy Chief Minister of the city State, Manish Sisodia. This is based on the expecta tion thatthe judiciary might show greater in- idependencelafer the pincer ofsingleparty/aur, Tocracy was loosened by the June 4 mandate. ‘There are many ifs and buts in this scena- rio, as the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have made every move to ensure that the AAP lead- cers stay incarcerated, Despite getting bail from the Supreme Court in july ina money launder- ing case linked to Delhi's excise policy, Kejr- ‘wal was not released; he was separately arrest ‘ed by the CBI for corruption in broadly the ‘same case. This is usually how the police treat those accused of terrorism. ‘The criminalisation of the opposition using the ED and state agencies has been a feature of the Narendra Modi years. But the AAP has faced the most furious onslaught by the go- ‘ernment via agencies, the criminal justice system, and loyal media arms. Asa small party ‘that is in power only in Delhi and Punjab, one asks why so much wrath has been directed against it by the mighty BIP? Itis possibly because the AAP appeared on the very stage—New Delhi-where Prime Minis- ter Narendra Modi sought to perform as an Absolute Leader and Vishwaguru. Kejrival’s national rise mirrored Modi’s, who shifted to Delhi in 2014 while Kejriwal led the AAP to ahist ‘sweep of 67 of 7 seats in the Assembly six months later. In the {2 years since its formation, the AAP has been the fastest grow- ing political party, and in 2022 it came to power in Punjab, The ‘wo years since then have been hell for the party. Besides, the AP's “ideology”, if one can cal it as such, is| really about building the public sector and delivering services in health and education. In 2022-23, for instance, the Delhi go- vvernment's Budget allocated 21 per cent for education, laim- ing itwas the highest/amongall States and the Centre, Every now and then, the AAP flirts with Hindutva, but itis, unlikely to trouble either the BJP or other parties. However, it {s the party's governance approach that can be seen as being at odds with the orientation of the Modi government, whose ‘redo is outsourcing and privatisation. This approach of the ‘AAP has created a furious rage in the “establishment”, which consists not just ofthe BJP but also old Congress hands, bu- reaucrats, and some private businesses. So, for the past few years, Delhi has been the site for the wrecking ball that seeks tw disable the AAP's schemes, cuits budgets, delay funds, and focus on finding a smoking gun in the Delhi liquor policy by building.a case through approvers. Despite the fact that itis the city, indeed India’s capital, that is becoming collateral damage, the Modi regime takes the job Of destroying the AAP so seriously that it brought in a law through Parliament to overtum a Supreme Court judgment, (On May 1, 2023, a five judge Constitution Bench ruled that the lected Delhi government had power over administrative ser- vices, which means bureaucrats. Eight days later, the Centre Drought in an ordinance that overturned the court's decision, and in August last year, the Lok Sabha passed the Governmentof National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amend- ‘ment) Bill, 2023 (or Delhi Services Bil), that ex- tends the Centre's powers in the National Cap- ital Region and gives the Lieutenant Governor (L6) authority over civil servants. This, in ef- fect, means that the bureaucrats need not ls- ten to elected Ministers, Still, he AAP has to contend with bureau- ‘rats who do not listen to it and the public has toliveina city where simple document often ‘cannot be extracted froma bureaucracy that is not accountable to the public and only answ- cers to the unelected LG, From the mohalla clinics being short of funds to government school teachers being transferred, there is a Kafkaesque shroud over the functioning of the State government in Delhi. And, opening a new chapter in jurisprudence, the ED for the first time has made a political party, the AAP, an accused in the liquor policy case. ‘There are so many cases and inquiries tar- geting members of the Delhi government that itis hard to keep track. There is even a case against the Delhi government for paying legal fees in some cases. The AAP ended the BP's 1Syear reign over the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) in 2022. There is a complex le- gislation now involving the creation of the ‘MCD’ Standing Committee that is authorised 1o|clear projects over Rs.5 crore, Many things fare thus stuck in Delhi, including the city's drains in the monsoon. ‘The Centre's vanity projects, however, have never been halted, whether it is the Central Vista or billboards with the Prime Minister's face advertising the G20 summit last year. Even the LG’ face is now displayed at histori- cal and archaeological parks. So, what next? Since the Modi-Kejriwal standoff began, the city has voted for the BJP in every Lok Sabha election but given large ‘mandates to the AAP in the Assembly election Despite the fact thatitis the city, indeed India's capital, thatis becoming collateral damage, the Modi regime takes the job of destroying the AAP seriously. 3 > AAP chiet Avvind Kejiwal campaigning or Congress candidate Kanhaiya Kumar in Nev Delhi on May 2. sus xousavesan {in 2020 the party won 62 seats of 70). The BJP won the 2024 Lok Sabha election in spite of an AAP-Congress alliance. The next Assembly election is due in 2025. Had the BJP won a sim- pple majority this year, it may have brought in more structural changes to the already curtailed powers of the Delhi Assemb- ly. Bur it cannot do so now given its parliamentary strength, ‘Thus, as New Delhi heads into the Assembly election, the BJP ‘will want Kejriwal behind bars, the AAP dysfunctional, and the party tainted by corruption allegations. leadership crisis for some decades. Now, there is. speculation that it may consider the newly elected [MP Bansuri Swaraj (daughter of Sushma Swara) as the party's Chief Minister candidate although the name of the veteran Delhi politician Arvinder Singh Lovely, who defected from the Congress just before the Lok Sabha election, has also been floated. For the AAP, behind bars or not, Kejtiwal i its creator and undisputed leat The question now is, cn the AAP do a hat, ‘rick? Hs there been reputational damiage by the constant painting of the AAP leadership as corrupt? The morale of par- ‘ty workers is low, with a wrecking ball having been taken t0 ev ety facet ofthe party’s existence. Besides the incarceration of party leaders, other functionaries and loyalists have also been criminalised and/or lost their jobs in the Delhi government. Meanwhile there has been a national revival of sorts of the Congress, which governed Delhi for three terms under the ate Chief Minister Sheila Dixit before the Kejriwal era. There will bbeno AAP-Congress alliance for the State election, and the lat- ter will be seeking to stage a comeback. ‘The AAPis battered but it isa fighting force, particularly if Kejriwal is freed. His party has flagged his medical condition ‘Kejriwal is diabetic and has lost weight, although theresa pol- slanging match over how much. While Tihar jail author- ities say he has lost [Link] since June 2, when he returned to jail after a brief bail period, AAP functionaries say their leader has Jost 8.5 kg and suggest that the authorities are painting a false picture. They say Kejriwal could end up in a coma and should be shifted toa hospital. Politicians, businessmen, and even po- ‘werful dons accused of serious crimes are frequently allowed to invoke health reasons and sent to hospital. But Kejiwal, of ‘course, isa special target. Bec itself has been beset with a«The States FLEEING FROM THE JUNTA There has been a flood of misinformation about the identity of the refugees in Kamjong in Manipur. Those taking shelter in eight camps here are people who fled Myanmar’s Sagaing region in November last year when their villages were razed by the junta. GREESHMAKUTHAR recently in Kamjong freeciom. Fear. Complete fear!” shouted Kan. Linn, repeating the word “fear” over and over again, The 42-year-old teacher from the Saga ing region, of Myanmar, had been relatively, ‘quiet for an hour when his colleagues spoke about the situation in Myanmar, only occa sionally nodding or shaking his head. His sudden outburst was sign of helplessness, a common emotion that seems to have set into mostrefugees who fled Myanmar in the years following. the onset of civil war in 2021. ‘The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San ‘Suu Kyi, swept the 2020 election in Myanmar and was poised to form the government for the second time. Hours before the newly elected government was to meet, the country’s military council (the junta) cited election imegu larities and announced that it was taking over. It appointed a ‘State Administration Couneil and overthrew the democratial ly elected government. Similar to the coup of 1962, many pro- democracy leaders, including Suu Kyi, were arrested almost immediately. Since then, there have been widespread protests against the military regime, ranging from mass strikes to boyeots, with ‘those opposed to the junta leading a civil disobedience move- ‘ment amidst a violent crackdown, arrests, and Internet shut downs. Within months, elected parliamentarians formed the ational Unity Government (NUG), a government in exile, de- ‘laring their intention to take on the military regime. Local re sistance groups emerged to support them, arming and organising themselves into batta. lions; they are often collectively referred to as People’s Defence Forces or Local Defence Forces. ‘These came up in addition to the already existing ethnic armed organisations, which areregion-specific; some of them have extend- ‘ed support to the NUG. Many of these groups have now seized control of military outposts ‘across Myanmar, especially those close to the borders. The junta and its militias have been vindictive in their response, routinely attack- ing villages they suspect are against them. “There have been reports of brutal violenceand mass killings during such incursions. ‘cording to statistics compiled by Assistance As- sociation for Political Prisoners (Burma), 26,936 people have been arrested since the coup start- ‘ein 2021. More than 5,000 have been killed. In February this year, the junta reintroduced a do ‘mant law that made it compulsory for men aged 18 to 35 and women aged I8 to 27 to serve in the army for at least two years. This led to further panic, resulting in marty people fleeing the coun- ‘ry and a number of armed attacks by antijunta forces, During one such standoff in early November in 2023, the Sagaing region came under attack. Almost everyone from the township and its Hatkhoneng, have itthehardest atthe nutitious feodand medical eave. neighbouring villages, with a mixed population ‘Myanmarese citizens of Bamar, Shan, and Ku- ki:Zo communities, fled towards the Indian bor- dr. Within hours, most ofthe villages were hit ‘by air strikes, Inthe weeks that followed, close to 10 villages (on the India-Myanmar border were razed to the sound. Duringa vist to the border area of Teng: rnoupal in Manipur in late January this reporter ‘met refugees who had fled the Sagaing region to the town of Tamu on the Myanmar side of the wf Moreh on the Manipur side. Ro- bbinson Kamodang (66), a trader from Kheron-