Explaining Exit Polls

An election exit poll is a survey based on interviews with voters as they leave (or
exit) their balloting locations. To estimate the outcome of an election in a
particular constituency, a sample of its smallest voting units (often referred to as
precincts or polling locations) is drawn and at least one interviewer is assigned to
each sampled location on Election Day. On a pre-determined and systematic
basis, the interviewer approaches people who have already voted in order to
obtain an interview. For example, depending upon the expected number of voters
at the sample location, the interviewer may approach every third or fifth person
who leaves the voting location. The interviewer usually hands the voter a
questionnaire on a clipboard and asks him or her to fill out the questionnaire, fold
it up, and deposit it in a survey ballot box. In most instances the exit poll
questionnaire is self-administered to protect the privacy of the voter and the
confidentiality of each individual’s responses.

A regular series of national exit polls is conducted in the United States for the
major national news organizations. Election exit polling began in the 1970s as
separate data collection operations conducted by each of the major television
networks. The separate operations were later consolidated into a single data
collection enterprise in order to save money. The exit polls between 1989 and 1992
were conducted by a consortium called Voter Research & Surveys (VRS) which
became Voter News Service (VNS) which conducted the exit polls from 1993 to
2002. In 2003, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press formed the
National Election Pool (NEP). Starting in 2017, the National Election Pool (NEP) is
now comprised of ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC. All NEP exit polls since 2003 have been
conducted by Edison Research.

The typical exit poll questionnaire gathers three types of data:

• How the respondent voted in the election
• A variety of attitudes held by the voter such as the issues that were
important in determining their vote and their party affiliation

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 • The demographic characteristics of the voter such as their age, gender,
race and level of education

The latter two sets of information can be used to explain why respondents voted
as they did and what kinds of people voted for each candidate. These exit poll
questionnaires are relatively short (typically less than 25 questions) and take less
than five minutes to complete. Election night projections of the outcome of key
races are based only in part on exit polls. Interviewing people as they leave their
voting place overcomes a lot of the problem of respondents’ misreporting
whether they voted or not when they are interviewed on the telephone. Analysts
have sophisticated statistical models to make their projections that use
additional data beyond that gathered in the exit polls, including historical voting
data such as past turnout and the partisan division of the vote from the sample
precincts in which the interviews were conducted. Computer models use this
information to evaluate exit poll results as they become available, looking at
whether the turnout is higher or lower than usual and whether the vote is more or
Democratic or Republican than in the past.

In close races, the projection models also employ actual vote totals, first in
sample precincts as it becomes available and then at the county level for all
counties in a state as they become available.

It is important to note that after the votes have been counted, the exit poll results
are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. It is in this way that the final
exit poll data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed
light on why the election turned out the way it did.

These data provide powerful explanations for why people voted the way they did
– telling us which key demographic groups voted for which candidates and why.
It is in this way that the so-called “mandate” of the election can be measured
and reported accurately without relying on the partisan “spin” that the
candidates, their campaign staffs, and political pundits typically put on
interpretations of the election outcome.

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Finally, exit polls do something that pre-election polls cannot do: capture the
voting intent of last minute deciders. In 2016, 13% of voters decided for whom to
vote in the last week before the election, according to the exit polls. Exit polls face
many challenges especially given the changing nature of how and when people
vote. These challenges include:

• Changes in the way people vote The share of all voters who cast their
votes before Election Day using by-mail absentee ballots or in-person
early voting has increased from approximately 16% of voters in the 2000
presidential election to an estimated 42% of voters in the 2016 presidential
election. Telephone surveys of absentee and early voters are used to
supplement the NEP’s national exit polls as well as state exit polls when
there is a high proportion of absentee and early voters.

• Selective refusal Slightly less than half of voters asked to participate in an

exit poll agree to complete the questionnaire and those who refuse
sometimes are different from voters who agree to be interviewed. The exit
polls attempt to account for differential non-response by adjusting the
data using visibly observable voter characteristics such as gender, age
and race. However, if Republican voters decline to fill out an exit poll
questionnaire at a higher rate than Democratic voters, the exit polls can
produce a slight Democratic overstatement. As noted previously, to deal
with this the exit poll results are also weighted to reflect the actual election
outcomes.

• Early leaks In the past, early and incomplete exit poll results were
sometimes leaked on Election Day. Today, major news organizations have
agreed not to release any exit poll data that could characterize the
outcome of a race before all of the polls in that state have closed. The
embargo is necessary because an exit poll sample is not representative of
the entire electorate until the survey is completed at the end of the day.
Different types of voters turn out at different times of the day. Since 2006, in
order to prevent early leaks of exit poll data, the NEP has limited access to
exit poll data to a small group of analysts in a quarantined location until a
few hours before the polls close.

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 • Election regulations Over the years, some state election officials have
attempted to impose restrictions on how close exit poll interviewers are
able to stand to the exit of the polling location. News organizations have
brought suit against more than a half-dozen states that have tried to
impose distance restrictions of 100 feet of more. In every case, courts have
thrown out these restrictions. However, there are some states that impose
interviewer distance restrictions of up to 75 feet and these distance
restrictions do adversely affect response rates.

Exit surveys are used for other purposes. The technique is frequently employed to
survey movie-goers, library users or museum visitors.

This information was developed by AAPOR as part of a comprehensive online

journalism polling course created in partnership with NewsU, a project of the
Poynter Institute and funded by the Knight Foundation. The course launched
September 2007.