presents

National Case Competition

The Final Round

The Perfect Pitch

War-Proofing
Global Supply Chains
 National Case Competition

BACKGROUND

In an increasingly interconnected world, global supply chains have become the backbone of
international trade and commerce. These complex networks of suppliers, manufacturers,
distributors, and retailers span across continents, allowing businesses to optimize costs, access
specialized expertise, and reach global markets. However, recent geopolitical events have
exposed the vulnerabilities of these intricate systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and rising tensions
between major powers have demonstrated how quickly global supply chains can be disrupted.
These events have forced businesses and policymakers to reconsider the resilience and
adaptability of their supply chain strategies. The concept of "war-proofing" supply chains has
emerged as a critical consideration for businesses operating in this uncertain landscape.

CONTEXT

The Evolving Nature of Recent statistics highlight the changing landscape

Global Conflicts of global conflicts

The nature of warfare is • Q2 2024 saw the highest increase of global cyberattacks,
a whopping 30% YoY increase, reaching 1,636 attacks per
changing rapidly. Traditional
organization per week. (Check Point Research, 2024).
military confrontations are
being supplemented or even • The global cybersecurity market size is projected to
replaced by hybrid warfare, grow from $207 billion in 2024 to $375+ billion by the
end of this decade, at a CAGR of 12.63% (Mordor
cyberattacks, and economic
Intelligence, 2024).
sanctions. The rise of
autonomous weapons systems • As of 2021, 30 countries have or are developing armed AI
and artificial intelligence in systems. Israel has also used the “Lavender” AI system in
the conflict in Gaza to identify 37,000 Hamas targets.
military applications adds
Accordingly, the current conflict between Israel and
another layer of complexity and Hamas has been dubbed the first“AI war.” (Georgetown
unpredictability to potential Journal of International Affairs, 2024).
conflicts.
• Economic sanctions as a tool of statecraft have
increased by 75% over the past decade (Global
Sanctions Database, 2022).

War-Proofing Global Supply Chains 1

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These changes have significant

implications for global supply chains
1. Increased vulnerability to cyberattacks on
critical infrastructure
- 93% of companies would need more
than 24 hours to recover from a
cyberattack targeting their supply chain
(The State of Supply Chain Defence:
Annual Global Insights, BlueVoyant 2023).
2. Potential for rapid escalation of conflicts, Avg. Weekly Cyber Attacks per
leading to sudden trade disruptions Organization (Global 2021-2024)
3. Use of economic sanctions as a tool of 1600
warfare, affecting international trade 1400
1200
- As of 2023, almost 30 countries are under 1000
some form of U.S. sanctions (U.S. 800
Department of the Treasury, 2023). 600
400
4. Disruption of key trade routes and 200
transportation hubs 0

20 Q4
20 Q2

20 Q3
20 Q3

2
20 Q4

20 Q2

20 Q1
20 Q4
20 Q3

20 Q1
20 Q1
20 Q2
21 1

5. Unpredictable shifts in geopolitical alliances

Q
Q

23
24
22

23

24
22

23
22

23
22
21
21
21

affecting business relationships

20
20

The Interconnected
Global Economy
The world economy has become
increasingly interconnected over
the past few decades

• Global trade as a percentage of world GDP has

Trade (% of GDP)
grown from less than 25% in 1970 to 60%+ in World Bank National Accounts data,
2022 (World Bank Data, 2023). and OECD National Accounts date files.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows have License : CC BY-4.0
increased from $204 billion in 1990 to $1.58 Line Bar Map

trillion in 2022 (UNCTAD, 2023). %

65
LABEL

• The number of multinational corporations has 60

risen from about 7,000 in 1970 to over 80,000 55

today (UNCTAD, 2023). 50

• Global value chains account for almost 50% of 45

global trade (World Trade Organization, 2023). 40

• Cross-border data flows have grown by 45

35

times since 2005 and are projected to grow 30

by another 9 times by 2025 (McKinsey Global 25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Institute, 2016).
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This interconnectedness has led to Retail e-commerce sales worldwide

• Increased efficiency and specialization from 2014 to 2027
(in billion U.S. dollars)
• Access to global talent and resources
10,000

• Expansion of markets for goods and services

8,034
8,000
- E-commerce sales reached $5.2 trillion 6,876
7,467

globally in 2021, up from $3.4 trillion in 2019

Sales in billion U.S. Dollars

6,330
6,000 5,784
(Statista, 2023). 4,988
5,311

4,248
• Greater exposure to geopolitical risks and 4,000
3,351

supply chain disruptions 2,382

2,982

2,000 1,845
- 94% of Fortune 1000 companies reported 1,336
1,548

supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19

0
(Fortune, 2020). 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027

Recent Supply Chain Disruptions

Several recent events have highlighted the fragility of global supply chains:

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-ongoing)

• Disrupted production in China and other manufacturing hubs
• Created shortages in medical supplies, semiconductors, and other critical components
- Global semiconductor shortage cost the automotive industry an estimated $210 billion in
revenue in 2021 (AlixPartners, 2022).
• Led to port congestion and logistics bottlenecks
- Container shipping costs increased by over 400% between March 2020 and September
2021, then dropped and are on the rise again – almost 25% from Sep 2023 till Aug 2024
(Drewry World Container Index, 2024).

Figure 2 - Global Integrated Circuit (IC) unit shipment across various downturns,
quarterly, 1990 to Q2 2021 (log scale)
Trade war

Japanese tsunami

Channel
inventory build
COVID-19 pandemic

Asia crisis Sub-prime crisis

and global recession

Dot-com/
internet bubble
Global oil-led
economic crisis
2004
2000

2003

2006

2009
2008
2005
2002

2020
2007
1994
1990

1993

2014
1996

1999

2001

2010
1998

2013

2016

2019
1995

2018
1992

2015
2012

2021
2017
1997
1991

2011

Duration of slowdown Global IC unit shipments per quarter (in billions)

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Suez Canal Blockage (March 2021)

• The Ever Given container ship blocked the Suez Canal for six days
- Delayed an estimated $9.6 billion worth of trade each day (Lloyd's List, 2021)
• Demonstrated the vulnerability of key maritime chokepoints
- Approximately 12% of global trade passes through the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Authority, 2022).

Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-ongoing)

• Disrupted grain exports from Ukraine, affecting global food security
- Ukraine and Russia together accounted for 28% of global wheat exports in 2021 (International
Food Policy Research Institute, 2023).
• Led to energy price spikes and supply uncertainties in Europe
- Natural gas prices in Europe increased by over 400% in 2022 compared to 2021
(International Energy Agency, 2023).
• Resulted in sanctions affecting various industries, from aerospace to finance
- Over 1,000 companies have curtailed operations in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine
(Yale CELI List, 2023).

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Taiwan Strait Tensions (ongoing)

• Raised concerns about potential disruptions to the semiconductor industry

- Taiwan accounts for 92% of the world's most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity
(Boston Consulting Group, 2023).

• Highlighted the geopolitical risks in key technology supply chains

- 75% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is concentrated in East Asia

(Semiconductor Industry Association, 2023).

US-CHINA TRADE WAR TARIFFS:

AN UP-TO-DATE CHART

A. US-China tariff rates toward each other and rest of world (ROW)

25%
Trade war Phase One agreement
on US exports
21.1%

20

19.3%
Chinese exports

15

10

ROW exports 6.5%

5
ROW exports 3.0%

0
Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

US-China Trade Tensions (2018-ongoing)

• Escalating tariffs and trade restrictions between the world's two largest economies

• Disrupted global supply chains, particularly in technology and agriculture sectors

- US tariffs on Chinese goods increased from an average of 3.1% in 2017 to 19.3% in 2021
(Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2023)

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B. Percent of US-China trade subject to trade war tariffs

100%
Trade war Phase One agreement
90

80
Chinese exports
70 66.4%

60 58.3%

US exports subject
50

40

30

20

10

0
Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

• Led to shifts in manufacturing locations and sourcing strategies

- 40% of US companies surveyed in China were considering or had relocated manufacturing

facilities outside of China (AmCham China, 2022)

• Accelerated trends towards supply chain diversification and reshoring

- Global reshoring index increased by 50% from 2019 to 2021 (Kearney Reshoring Index, 2022).

Extreme Weather Events (ongoing)

• Increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters affecting global supply chains

• Examples include hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and extreme temperatures

- Economic losses from natural disasters reached $400 billion in 2023 (Swiss Re Institute, 2024)

• Disrupted production, transportation, and distribution across various industries

- Hurricane Ida in 2021 caused over $75 billion in damages and significantly impacted oil and gas
production in the Gulf of Mexico (NOAA, 2022)

• Highlighted the need for climate resilience in supply chain planning

- 80% of companies report that climate change has affected their supply chains in the past five
years (CDP Global Supply Chain Report, 2023)

These events have prompted businesses and governments to reassess their supply
chain strategies, focusing on resilience, diversification and risk mitigation.

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 National Case Competition

KEY CONCEPTS
AND FRAMEWORKS

To address the challenges of war-proofing supply chains, several key concepts and frameworks
already exist

• Supply Chain Resilience: The ability of a supply chain to prepare for and adapt to
unexpected events, disruptions, and business conditions.

• Digital Twin Technology: Creating virtual replicas of physical supply chains to simulate and
optimize operations under various scenarios.

• AI and Machine Learning in Supply Chain Management: Leveraging advanced analytics for
better forecasting, risk assessment, and decision-making.

• Just-in-Case vs. Just-in-Time Inventory Management: Balancing efficiency with resilience

in inventory strategies.

• Supply Chain Mapping and Visibility: Gaining a comprehensive understanding of all tiers of
the supply chain, including sub-suppliers and their locations.

IDENTIFYING / CREATING MORE SUCH FRAMEWORKS

IS THE KEY TO SOLVE FOR WAR PROOFING

CONCLUSION
As global tensions rise and the nature of conflict evolves, businesses must adapt their supply chain
strategies to ensure resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As you solve some of the case
questions, your endeavour must be to explore the complex challenges of war-proofing global supply
chains, considering geopolitical, technological, and ethical dimensions.

By addressing the questions posed, you will gain a deeper understanding of the multifaceted nature of
supply chain resilience in an era of uncertainty. You will be challenged to think critically about the balance
between efficiency and security, the role of emerging technologies, and the broader implications of
supply chain decisions on global economic and political systems.

As business leaders of the new epoch, your approach to these challenges will shape the resilience and
sustainability of global trade in the coming decades. Your innovative solutions and ethical considerations
will be crucial in navigating the complex landscape of international business in an increasingly
unpredictable world, as Epoch 2.0 dawns upon us.

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 National Case Competition

CASE
QUESTIONS

As leaders of the next Business Epoch, think deeply about how global supply chains can be made
more resilient, and organizations can better equip themselves to predict and mitigate risks that
emerge out of war and other uncertainties. Some of the questions in this direction could be:

Total Addressable Market (TAM) Analysis

a) Estimate the global market size for supply chain resilience solutions. Consider software,
consulting services, and technology implementations.

b) Identify key customer segments (e.g., industries, company sizes) that are most likely to invest in
war-proofing their supply chains.

c) Analyse the demographic and psychographic characteristics of decision-makers in these

organizations. How might these factors influence their approach to supply chain resilience?

Business Landscape and SWOT Analysis

a) Identify the major players in the supply chain resilience market. Include both established
companies and innovative startups.

b) Conduct a SWOT analysis for a hypothetical company specializing in war-proofing supply chains.
Consider geopolitical, technological, and economic factors in your analysis.

c) How might the competitive landscape evolve

over the next Epoch (5-10 years) as geopolitical tensions and technological capabilities advance?

Operational Ideas and Technology Integration

a) Propose a comprehensive strategy for a global manufacturing company to war-proof its supply
chain. Include specific operational changes and technology implementations, particularly the
evolving role of AI in the technology mix.

b) Develop a framework for assessing geopolitical risks in different regions of the world. How can the
company above, and other companies use this framework to inform their supply chain decisions?

Future Scenarios
a) Develop three possible scenarios for the future of global supply chains as part of the coming epoch,
ranging from highly globalized to largely localized. What factors would contribute to each scenario?

b) For each scenario, describe the implications for businesses, consumers, and global economic
development.

c) Based on these scenarios, what long-term strategies should companies adopt to ensure their
supply chains remain resilient and competitive as the next Epoch dawns?

War-Proofing Global Supply Chains 8

 Please upload your
pitch in not more than
12 slides in PPT/PDF format
on the portal before
the deadline.

p res e nt s

National Case Competition