Impactof COVID19 Pandemicon Indian MSMEFinal Draft
Impactof COVID19 Pandemicon Indian MSMEFinal Draft
Abstract
Today the entire world is undergoing through a tough times. A virus named Covid-19 has taken
the entire world into its grip and as a result people’s life and global economy have been
disheveled. Covid-19 is a one of the giant disaster in the year 2020. No any country is left from
the trap of Covid-19. It is impacting the global economy devastatingly whose outcome is totally
uncertain and unpredictable. The purpose of this research paper is to study that how Covid-19
will impact on Indian economy in different sectors specially Indian MSME sectors which are life
blood of Indian economy. We have also tried to illuminate what will be the revival strategies of
Indian MSME after the end of epidemic period and expected changes in business operation.
What are the different measures that are taken by the Government of India in MSME sectors to
achieve the dream of Self- Reliant India or Atmanirbhar Bharat. After studying the devastating
impact and various revival strategies, we found that business practices of Indian MSMEs will be
totally changed. Digital practices, innovation, accessing of finance, focus on cash flows rather
than profit will be essential after this epidemic. Rupees 3 lakh crore credit guarantee
announcement for MSMEs will keep their heads above the water even as the economy slow
down.
Corona virus (Covid19) is one the giant disaster in the year 2020. Pneumonia of unknown cause
was detected first time in Wuhan city Hubei province of China on 31.12.19. From 31.12.2019 to
3.01.2020 total number of 44 people affected with pneumonia of unknown cause was found.
China immediately intimate this event to WHO by national authority in china. After analyze the
data by WHO, the phenomenon was declared a public health emergency of international concern
on 30.01.2020. On 11.02.2020 WHO announced a name for the new Corona virus disease Covid-
19. Corona virus disease (Covid-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered
corona virus. The Covid-19 virus spread primarily through droplets discharge from nose when
person cough or sneezes. Corona virus is a virus from the family of flu viruses. It is now known
as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona virus 2 (SARS- Cov2). WHO has been
assessed the outbreak day after day and concerned by the level of spread and severity and by the
level of inaction and eventually WHO declare COVID-19 is a pandemic. The Coronavirus
Covid-19 pandemic is global health crisis. It is a greatest challenge we have faced since world
war two. The virus has spread to every continent except Antarctica. Cases are rising daily in
Africa, America and Europe. All the countries are racing to slow the spread of virus by testing
and treating patients carrying out contact tracing, limiting travel, quarantining citizens and
avoiding large gathering such as sporting event, concert, school and universities. In some
developed countries like America, Italy, Spain the situation have been uncontrollable. The
pandemic is moving like a wave. Almost all the countries in the world focusing on social
distancing. Social distancing is one of the methods to contain the spread of virus. Nearly 162
countries have steadily into lockdown. Almost 210 countries and territories around the world
have reported a total of 44,42,414 confirmed cases of corona virus and a death toll of 2,98,322
(www.worldometer.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/ last updated:
May 14, 2020). Across the world shops, theatres, restaurants are closing. Every day people are
losing jobs and nobody knows when the normal life style will began. The International Labour
Organisation estimates that 195 million jobs could be lost. Today most of the powerful
developed countries are helpless because they have become too late to implement the decision of
social distancing. Italy the world top health service facility has been collapsed. Beds have been
shortage to admit affected person with virus. It is a too horrible situation.
This pandemic has shaken and deteriorates the global economy. In this article we will try to
overview the probable impact of Covid19 on Indian MSME. It is too early to estimate how
deeply the pandemic will affect MSME. Covid-19 has moved from a health crisis to an economic
crisis. This pandemic destroyed the business cycle all over the world. Around 100 countries have
closed national border. During the past month global supply chain has been collapsed. Global
economy could shrink by almost 1% in 2020 due to Covid19 pandemic.
India is a developing country. The position of India’s Micro, Small and medium enterprises
(MSME) is the largest in world after china. MSME plays a significant role to accelerate the
growth of Indian economy. But the position of MSME will be very unimaginable and
unpredictable after this epidemic. The state of Uttar Pradesh has the largest number of estimated
MSME with share of 14.20% of total MSME’s in the country. West Bengal comes as close
second with a share of 14% followed by Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra at 8%. Indian economy
that desperately needs immediate assistance, it is Micro, Small and Medium enterprises to
survive. In India there are over 63 million MSME units in India. The Indian MSME will be
impacted significantly due to the outbreak of Covid19 in near future. Visualization of future
existence of Indian MSME is completely impossible and uncertain at this moment. To contain
Covid19 spread India has declare 21 days complete lockdown in each state which may be extend
according to the situation. Normal business activities are being completely stopped for all type of
business organization. This standstill for couple of month will be a very crucial for Indian
MSME. However if the pandemic proliferates and prolonged lockdown would exacerbate
economic trouble. India’s growth may fall below 3% in financial year 2021 under this scenario
(KPMG report). Coronavirus outbreak is having a stark effect on small business businesses as
the situation drags on (National Federation of Independent Business). There will be
unemployment situation rises around 8000 to 10000 in the coming couple of months, since
people displaced from their jobs for maintaining social distancing guidelines. But for some
businesses the impact may be positive. Those businesses which deal with essential items which
is required for livelihood experiencing stronger sales due to Sharpe rise in demand for product.
Consumers are buying essential commodity more than necessary which ultimately leads to
exponential growth in sales. The stutter buying in huge quantity of essential commodity leads to
increase the price of commodity due to lower supply and high demand. For packaged food
business this critical situation has some opportunity to expand their business. Every family have
been quarantine in their home. They are not allowed to move from one place to another. In this
time business who deals with packaged food can grab the opportunity by making home delivery
and create a healthy relationship with society. SMEs who deals with export, there will be slow
down of export business. Service sector is also slowing down since more people opting social
isolation like salon shop. MSME sector in India will face the problem like low liquidity or cash
flow and lack of workforce since daily-wagers have gone to their villages. Lack of workforce
will have to be a negative impact on production. Lower production means lower supply and
lower supply will create the inflation environment. But government has started taking some
initiative to keep the MSME segment afloat. The RBI recently introduced long term repo
operation (LTRO) worth 100000 crore, as a result bank can increase lending at cheaper interest
rate. Such type of initiative will give some help to MSME sector. Those SME’s which are listed
in BSESME exchange there is a possibility to decline the share price. People will hesitate to
invest in SMEs stock after this epidemic as a result supply will be greater than demand which
leads to decline the share value. The impact of lockdown will be very discomfort for Indian
MSME because in India most of the small business transactions are done in cash and payment to
the workers and laborers are also made in cash. Small businesses are not very much comfortable
to adopt digital practices in its business. Due to this crisis small businesses will try to adopt
digital practices in its business. There are chances to arise the problem of liquidity crunch and
without adequate liquidity the small business might be close down in coming future. As a result
workers will face layoff and unemployment in near future. Workers are moving towards native
house from work place. There is a very fragile situation for workers during this time. 19% to
43% of the MSME may disappear if epidemic persist 4 or 8 weeks. MSMEs have gone through
most difficult time in the last 3 years (All India Manufacturing Organization). They faced one
setback after another. Sign of red alert are already visible. MSME will have to face huge
financial burden of unpaid salaries which lead to loss of employment, unpaid EMI whose
negative impact will be reflected in the balance sheet of small firm. Due to lockdown, movement
of goods from one country to another country has been stopped. One of the positive thing due to
this crisis is that those enterprises who deal with import and export business, they can be self
reliant and will try to produce goods within India instead of import which will improve balance
of payment situation to some extent. There is a great opportunity for SME which belongs to
chemical sector. They can extend its product line by making hand sanitizer product whose
demand is to increase in right now. Apparel sector can also grab the opportunity by making face
mask. Poultry firm is facing lots of problem due to shutdown. Demand of chickens has been
decrease with falling rate 20 per kg from prevailing market price 90 per kg. To alive the poultry,
the owner of firm will have to maintain fixed cost as a feed for poultry even there is no sale.
Haats in some rural area are main source of revenue of rural people like Odisha, West Bengal
and Chhattisgarh. Haats are being closed down. Starvation situation will arise if lockdown
continue to around 8 weeks. If we go to the agriculture business, harvest season will begin and
there is a shortage of worker for harvesting wheat which could lead to rotting of crop in the
fields. As a result price of flour may be increase after this epidemic due to lower supply. This
will be crucial for keeping the supply chain of food grains alive. The major concern for MSME
will be liquidity crunch due to the covid-19 outbreak. Lack of liquidity will disrupt supply chain
and labour availability. Many units have paid their workers’ wages for March in full and are
prepared for April payment while there is no revenue now. In addition there are bills like
electricity bill, water bill that also have to be paid but without revenue or substantial government
support, there is no way they can carry on in May and beyond. Major big concern of MSME
units are delay in launch of new product, inability to meet demand from essential industries,
tough social distancing. State bank of India has set a target to distribute 700 crore to MSME in
Mumbai. The government is working on 1 trillion packages. There is a possibility to change the
definition of MSME. The proposal is still to be approved. The Indian government will also need
to increase insolvency limit for SMEs and MSME to 1 crore from 1 lakh.
3. Impact on Indian Economy:
There will be devastating impact on Indian economy due to the pandemic of Covid-19. Every
economic activity which reflects GDP of a country has been stopped. This standstill will decline
the speed of growth of Indian economy. Cross border economic activity has been stopped. We
can expect sluggishness in the developing country like India. The pandemic and consequent
lockdown have hit various sector of Indian economy.
Raw material and spare parts: In India around 55% of electronic component import from
China. Imports have been decreased to 40% due to the outbreak of coronavirus and prolong
lockdown. To tackle this problem India is considering the promotion of home production to
reduce the dependency on China. In addition China is India’s third largest export partner for
export of raw material like organic chemical, mineral fuel, cotton etc and due to complete
lockdown export has been stopped which leads to a substantial trade deficit for India.
Agriculture: The nationwide lockdown will have significant impact on agriculture sector.
Farmers are worry about government procurement and their ability to sell their agricultural
product. Even markets are still closed, order from the home ministry to exempt all farming
activities from shutdown. Unless the government acts soon, farmers in India will face bleak
future leading to bankruptcies and they will suicide.
Automotive: Automotive sector was already witnessing a sluggish demand for last one year. The
present situation has further aggravated the problem and compounded the situation with an acute
liquidity crunch. China account for 27% of India’s automotive part import. Wuhan is the major
auto hub the supply chain of automotive sector has been hit significantly.
Hotels, restaurants and tourism: demand has decline substantially due to complete lockdown.
Owners are struggling to recover fixed cost. There will be no demand of hotels around 5 to 6
month, people will try to avoid travelling which leads to lower demand to hotels. India is a
beautiful cultural and historical tourism attract domestic and foreign national throughout the
year. The entire tourism value chain, which includes hotels, restaurants, and agents have been
stopped. Tourism industry is likely take a massive hit and people will generally avoid movement
for tourist purposes in foreseeable future. In India the service sector account for 55% of GDP. It
is estimated that the loss to tourism and hospitality industry will be $2.1 billion for March and
April alone.
Apparel and Textile: This sector contributes 2% of GDP. China is the production hub of
cotton. India is totally dependence on china for textile raw material includes synthetic yarn,
synthetic fabric, buttons, zippers and hangers. India also exports cotton yarn to china in bulk
quantity. Now due to the outbreak there is poor demand in china as result price to come down in
India. Garment manufacturer can look at local sourcing opportunities. Textile and apparel sector
production is expected to decline by 10-12 percent in April- June quarter. This sector is one of
the largest employers in the country, employing over 45 million (direct jobs) as well as large
number of daily pay workers. Temporary closures of factories and lay-off have already begun
among low-wage worker.
FMCG: After the lockdown announcement, demand for essential FMCG product has been
increased owing to panic buying. Groceries items milk, bread and hygiene products etc have a
huge demand, as a result supply has been shortage which leads to increase in price.
E-commerce: Several e-commerce players Flipcart, Amazon, Mintra etc are unable to
fulfillment customer requirement due to absence of delivery man. They are not accepting new
orders however companies are trying to service essential items on priority basis. But the story is
not end here, consumer buying habit is going to be change after this event, consumer will avoid
large gathering as in traditional shop. Most of the consumer will prefer online shopping. Hence
there is lots of opportunity to expand business in near future.
Building and Construction: construction work in different sites has been stopped. Estimated
job loss of 30% in real estate sector. Fresh equity investments into the country’s real estate sector
would slow down.
Chemicals and Petrochemicals: India is 6th largest chemical and petrochemicals producer in
world, contribute 3.5% of global chemical industry (2018-19). Raw material price for
petrochemicals are falling primarily driven by crude price. Imports are expected to fall as major
import sources, Middle East and China are highly impacted by Covid-19. Majority of the
chemical producing units are SMEs and they do not sudden increase working capital
requirement. Extension of credit to customers and suppliers alongside falling revenue in the short
to medium term is expected to adversely affect cash flows.
Education and Skilling: all the education institution is closed to avoid large gathering. In India
there are 39931 colleges and 933 universities (2018-19). Schools around the country have been
impacted by Covid-19, closures of schools last several weeks during the crucial period of
academic year ending. Low-fee private schools especially are likely face larger impact on
teaching and learning. In higher education, most higher education institute are not fully geared to
implement online learning.
As per the World Bank’s latest assessment India is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8%. The IMF
projected a GDP growth of 1.9% for India in 2020 because the global economy hits the worst
recession since the greatest depression in 1930. 1.70 lakh crore rupee relief package announced
by finance minister on 26 March. Under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana around 39 crore
poor people have received financial assistance of rupees 34800 crore as direct benefit transfer
till 5 May 2020, 12810 crore has been distributed in two instalments to 25.62 crore account
holder, 1405 crore distributed to around 2.82 crore old age persons, widows and disabled
person ,2.20 crore workers received financial assistance to 3493 crore. Under Pradhan Mantri
Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana 67.65 lakh tones of foodgrains lifted by 36 states and union territory,
4.82 crore free cooking gas cylinders has been delivered under Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojna.
The Indian government has extended the ongoing nationwide lockdown till 3 May. It will cover
various sectors of the vulnerable segment from farmer, women, and small businesses to
organized worker. The Indian stock market on March 23suffered its worst single-day rout in
history. The NSE Nifty 50 index sank 12.98%, while S&P BSE Sensex fell 13.15% to 25981.24.
The rupee hit low records of 76.16 against the U.S dollar. Impact of covid-19 might to prove
fatal for many of India MSME unit. Standard operating procedure ( SOP) for MSMEs at work
place will be strictly followed where premises shall be disinfected on regular basis, provision for
hand wash & sanitizer, mandatory thermal scanning of everyone entering and exit the work
place. Medical insurance for worker will be mandatory. Ministry of Corporate Affair clarify that
annual general meeting should be conducted through video conferencing for avoiding large
gathering , which is little bit difficult for listed SMEs. MCA also clarify that contribution to PM
CARE FUND will qualify as CSR expenditure. On 30.03.2020 MCA introduced a new scheme
Companies Fresh Start Scheme, 2020 (CFSS 2020). Maximum interval between two board
meetings shall be extended by 60 days for the next two quarters. SIDBI will provide emergency
working capital up to Rs 1 crore to MSMEs. SIDBI has made arrangement for providing loans at
5% within 48 hours for MSMEs manufacturing any product to fight against corona virus like
hand sanitizers, masks, bodysuits, ventilators, testing lab etc. Andhra bank is setting up short-
term credit facility for small businesses.
How MSMEs can survive during post epidemic: The business environment during post
pandemic will be totally different from today’s business environment specially MSMEs. The
following changes we can expect in field of MSMEs sector.
1. Digital practice: India has 63 million MSMEs but only 32% of them are digitally engaged
and 68% are too far to adopt digital practices. The untapped portion of MSMEs must
change their strategy and digitize their business processes to survive in long run. To
adopt digital practice is really difficult for some MSMEs but without adopting digital
practice it will be very difficult to survive during post epidemic as people will continue to
avoid meeting and social gathering.
5. Cross train staff practice will be helpful to some extent in the business premises, so that
they will be able to perform variety of roles in business.
6. Giving more emphasis on working capital management. Quick collection from receivable
will be helpful to meet wage and salary expenses.
Relief measure taken by Government of India (GOI) for MSMEs: Government of India
announces 20 lakh crore economic packages on 12.05.2020. It is around 10% of country GDP
which will help India to become Self Reliant and boost Make in India initiative. It’s time to “Be
Vocal for the Local”. There will be five pillars of Self Reliant India.
Economy: An economy that will bring quantum jump rather than incremental changes.
System: A system that will be based on technology driven which can help us to realize 21 st
century.
Demand: the cycle of demand and supply which require each stakeholders of the supply chain to
be active.
Indian MSMEs will play a significant to become Self Reliant India. To become “from local to
global” of MSMEs are major emphasis of India. Indian MSMEs will be badly affected by Covid-
19 pandemic. It plays vital role in employment generation in India. To strong the foundation of
Indian MSMEs and to achieve the dream of Self Reliant India, Government of India has taken
different type of measures.
1: Changing MSME definition: low threshold limit in MSME definition have created a fear and
they did not expand its business and they think that if we expand our business, we shall be out of
the scope to avail benefits of MSME. After a long waiting Government has revised MSME
definition.
Service enterprises Investment <10 lakh Investment <2 crore Investment <5 crore
2: Collateral-free Automatic Loans: The government has announced 3 lakh crores collateral-
free loans to meet operational liability and buy raw material and restart business till 31 st October
2020. 45 lakh units will resume business activity and safeguard jobs. MSMEs whose outstanding
up to Rs 25 crore and turnover 100 crore are eligible to avail such benefit.
3: Subordinate Debt for stressed MSMEs: For stressed MSMEs, provision of 20000 crore as
subordinate debt has been created. Around 2 lakh MSMEs are likely to benefit. Those MSME
which are NPA or are stressed will be eligible to avail this benefit.
4: Equity infusion through Fund of Fund: Accessing of finance is always being a big hurdle
for MSME. To overcome this problem Rs 50000 crore equity infusion for MSME has been
arranged through fund of fund. Fund of Fund with corpus of Rs 10000 crores will be set up. It
will help to expand MSME size as well as capacity and will encourage MSMEs to get listed on
main board of stock exchange.
5: Global tenders to be disallowed upto 200 crore to overcome unfair competition from
foreign companies. This will be great move towards Self-Reliant India and support Make in
India
6: Marketing and Liquidity help: e-market linkage for MSMEs has been promoted to act as a
replacement for trade fairs and exhibitions. Fintech will be used to enhance transaction based
lending using the data generated by the e-marketplace. MSME receivables will be released
within 45 days.
7: 2500 crore EPF support for business & workers for 3 more month: Under Pradhan Mantri
Garib Kalyan Package (PMGKP), payment of 12% of employer and 12% employee
contributions was made into EPF accounts earlier for salary months of March, April and May
2020. This support will be extended by another 3 months to salary months of June, July and
August 2020
8: Reduction in EPF contribution: to enhance production over the next quarter, statutory PF
contribution of both employer and employee has been reduced to 10% each from existing 12%
for next three months. This scheme will be applicable for workers who are not eligible for 24%
EPF support under PM Garib Kalyan Package. This will provide liquidity of 6750 crore to
employers and employee over 3 months.
9: Liquidity through TDS/TCS rate reduction : In order to provide more funds at the disposal
of the taxpayers, the rates of Tax Deduction at Source (TDS) for non-salaried specified payments
made to residents and rates of Tax Collection at Source (TCS) for the specified receipts shall be
reduced by 25% of the existing rates. This will release liquidity of Rs 50000 crore.
10: Direct tax measure: All pending refunds to charitable trusts and noncorporate businesses &
professions including proprietorship, partnership, LLP and Co-operatives shall be issued
immediately. • Due date of all income-tax return for FY 2019-20 will be extended from 31st
July, 2020 & 31st October, 2020 to 30th November, 2020 and Tax audit from 30th September,
2020 to 31st October,2020.
Whether India can avoid a large economic slump or not the path back to growth will depend on
three broad scenarios of recovery, V shaped, U shaped and L shaped recovery. The RBI governor
expects that India could recover in a V shaped as projected by IMF in 2021-2022. The public &
private sector in India should plan for the best and prepare for the worst scenario, keeping in
mind that a V shaped recovery is not guarantee .However the extent of actual impact would
depends on the severity and duration of the outbreak which is still unknown. The Covid-19
lockdown may cost the Indian economy INR 8.76 lakh crore. Former RBI governor Raghuram
Ragan says that recovery will vary from industry to industry, it can be a U shaped (slow
comeback) or V shaped (Sharpe rapid growth). Recovery curve will depend on how organization
reforms their work practice and the change in consumption pattern of consumer after lockdown
period. India management of Covid-19 outbreak is being observe closely and appreciated by
WHO, UN, IMF, ADB and also the advanced economies like the US, UK, Italy, Germany, Spain
and Japan.
4. Conclusion:
Almost every country in the world is being affected from devastating outbreak of Covid-19. The
most powerful economies countries have become helpless, situation has become uncontrollable.
But the bounce back by taking quick and timely decision by India is really appreciable. we
cannot overlook the devastating impact of covid-19 but if we compare India with some
developed countries like USA or Italy whose comparison obviously is not justified but if we
analyze, India is in too much better position. This is just because of quick lockdown of country,
giving more attention towards social distancing. To great extent India has to contain the spread
of virus till now. If India did not take quick decision, then impact of the pandemic is being more
and more dangerous and visualization of its impact will be really shocking in coming future.
Every sector is being affected due to the pandemic. But whether India will tolerate the
consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic in near future. How much it will take time to come back
in the track of growth is unanswered. India has already suffered from unemployment and this
will be further extended. From every incident of life we learn something new it may be positive
or negative or both. This positive thing is that, from this pandemic India can analyze its potential.
India is too much dependent on other countries for importing goods, how India has tackled this
situation by home sourcing arrangement instead of import from other country. This will improve
BOP situation of India to some extent. Work from home concept is going to being new culture of
India. As a result use of digital practice will be increase in near future. Make in India and Digital
India will be encouraging more. There will be a big shock for new entrepreneur and start up, they
might be shut down. Some small businesses will be vanished.
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https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/nirmala-sitharaman-credit-guarantees-to-msmes-6408533/
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